股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头各加仓超千手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 中信空头减仓超千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信多空头各加仓 4000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 前二十席位增仓为主 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 广发期货早评 [股指期货] ◆ IF：总持仓小幅上升，中信多空头各 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Report Overview - The report is a full - variety spread daily report dated January 20, 2026, providing data on the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of multiple commodities across different sectors [2]. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Report's Core View - There is no clear core view stated in the provided content. The report mainly presents a comprehensive set of data on various commodities. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the spot price is 5648, the futures price is 5548, with a basis of 100 and a basis rate of 1.80% [1]. - For silicon manganese (SM603), the spot price is 5970, the futures price is 5808, with a basis of 162 and a basis rate of 2.79% [1]. - For rebar (RB2605), the spot price is 3290, the futures price is 3140, with a basis of 150 and a basis rate of 4.56% [1]. - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the spot price is 3280, the futures price is 3299, with a basis of - 19 and a basis rate of - 0.58% [1]. - For iron ore (I2605), the spot price is 852, the futures price is 794, with a basis of 58 and a basis rate of 7.35% [1]. - For coke (J2605), the spot price is 1734, the futures price is 1721, with a basis of 13 and a basis rate of 0.75% [1]. - For coking coal (JM2605), the spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1156, with a basis of 19 and a basis rate of 1.64% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2603), the spot price is 101180, the futures price is 100940, with a basis of 240 and a basis rate of 0.24% [1]. - For aluminum (AL2603), the spot price is 24090, the futures price is 23870, with a basis of 220 and a basis rate of 0.91% [1]. - For zinc (ZN2603), the spot price is 24450, the futures price is 24350, with a basis of 100 and a basis rate of 0.41% [1]. - For tin (SN2602), the spot price is 389800, the futures price is 389500, with a basis of 300 and a basis rate of 0.08% [1]. - For nickel (NI2603), the spot price is 142500, the futures price is 142320, with a basis of 180 and a basis rate of 0.13% [1]. - For stainless steel (SS2603), the spot price is 14470, the futures price is 14305, with a basis of 165 and a basis rate of 1.15% [1]. - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the spot price is 151000, the futures price is 147260, with a basis of 3740 and a basis rate of 2.54% [1]. - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8845, with a basis of 405 and a basis rate of 4.58% [1]. Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the spot price is 1048.9, the futures price is 1045.3, with a basis of 3.6 and a basis rate of 0.30% [1]. - For silver (AG2604), the spot price is 23189.0, the futures price is 23136.0, with a basis of 53.0 and a basis rate of 0.23% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the spot price is 3080, the futures price is 2727.0, with a basis of 353.0 and a basis rate of 12.94% [1]. - For soybean oil (V2605), the spot price is 8450, the futures price is 7996.0, with a basis of 454.0 and a basis rate of 5.68% [1]. - For palm oil (P2605), the spot price is 8648.0, the futures price is 8620, with a basis of - 28.0 and a basis rate of - 0.32% [1]. - For rapeseed meal (RM2605), the spot price is 2390, the futures price is 2221.0, with a basis of 169.0 and a basis rate of 7.61% [1]. - For rapeseed oil (OI2605), the spot price is 9780, the futures price is 8902.0, with a basis of 878.0 and a basis rate of 9.86% [1]. - For corn (C2603), the spot price is 2355, the futures price is 2281.0, with a basis of 74.0 and a basis rate of 3.24% [1]. - For corn starch (CS2603), the spot price is 2620, the futures price is 2555.0, with a basis of 65.0 and a basis rate of 2.54% [1]. - For live pigs (H2603), the spot price is 13400, the futures price is 11705.0, with a basis of 1695.0 and a basis rate of 14.48% [1]. - For eggs (JD2603), the spot price is 3510, the futures price is 3023.0, with a basis of 487.0 and a basis rate of 16.11% [1]. - For cotton (CF2605), the spot price is 15650, the futures price is 14545.0, with a basis of 1105.0 and a basis rate of 7.60% [1]. - For white sugar (SR2605), the spot price is 5390, the futures price is 5244.0, with a basis of 146.0 and a basis rate of 2.78% [1]. - For apples (AP2605), the spot price is 9400, the futures price is 9345.0, with a basis of 55.0 and a basis rate of 0.59% [1]. - For red dates (CJ2605), the spot price is 8815.0, the futures price is 8000, with a basis of - 815.0 and a basis rate of - 9.25% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX2603), the spot price is 7106.0, the futures price is 7055.0, with a basis of 51.0 and a basis rate of 0.72% [1]. - For PTA (TA2605), the spot price is 5030.0, the futures price is 4975.0, with a basis of 55.0 and a basis rate of 1.09% [1]. - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the spot price is 3755.0, the futures price is 3635.0, with a basis of 120.0 and a basis rate of 3.20% [1]. - For polyester staple fiber (PF2603), the spot price is 6435.0, the futures price is 6398.0, with a basis of 37.0 and a basis rate of 0.58% [1]. - For styrene (EB2602), the spot price is 7430.0, the futures price is 7295.0, with a basis of 135.0 and a basis rate of 1.85% [1]. - For methanol (MA2605), the spot price is 2212.0, the futures price is 2207.0, with a basis of 5.0 and a basis rate of 0.23% [1]. - For urea (UR2605), the spot price is 1772.0, the futures price is 1750.0, with a basis of 22.0 and a basis rate of 1.24% [1]. - For LLDPE (L2605), the spot price is 6750.0, the futures price is 6667.0, with a basis of 83.0 and a basis rate of 1.24% [1]. - For PP (PP2605), the spot price is 6575.0, the futures price is 6482.0, with a basis of 93.0 and a basis rate of 1.43% [1]. - For PVC (V2605), the spot price is 4801.0, the futures price is 4560.0, with a basis of 241.0 and a basis rate of 5.02% [1]. - For caustic soda (SH2603), the spot price is 2005.0, the futures price is 1984.0, with a basis of 21.0 and a basis rate of 1.03% [1]. - For LPG (PG2603), the spot price is 4998.0, the futures price is 4092.0, with a basis of 906.0 and a basis rate of 22.14% [1]. - For asphalt (BU2603), the spot price is 3142.0, the futures price is 3080.0, with a basis of 62.0 and a basis rate of 1.97% [1]. - For butadiene rubber (BR2603), the spot price is 11800.0, the futures price is 11605.0, with a basis of 195.0 and a basis rate of 1.68% [1]. - For glass (FG2605), the spot price is 1070.0, the futures price is 936.0, with a basis of 134.0 and a basis rate of 14.32% [1]. - For soda ash (SA2605), the spot price is 1192.0, the futures price is 1142.0, with a basis of 50.0 and a basis rate of 4.38% [1]. - For natural rubber (RU2605), the spot price is 15745.0, the futures price is 15500.0, with a basis of - 245.0 and a basis rate of - 1.58% [1]. Financial Instruments - For IF2603.CFF, the spot price is 4734.5, the futures price is 4728.6, with a basis of - 5.9 and a basis rate of - 0.12% [1]. - For IH2603.CFE, the spot price is 3075.9, the futures price is 3077.6, with a basis of 1.7 and a basis rate of 0.05% [1]. - For IC2603.CFE, the spot price is 8287.9, the futures price is 8266.0, with a basis of - 21.9 and a basis rate of - 0.27% [1]. - For IM2603.CFE, the spot price is 8265.6, the futures price is 8186.6, with a basis of - 79.0 and a basis rate of - 0.97% [1]. - For 2 - year Treasury bond (TS2603), the spot price is 102.40, the futures price is 100.09, with a basis of 2.31 (after considering conversion factor) and a basis rate of 2.31% (approx.) [1]. - For 5 - year Treasury bond (TF2603), the spot price is 105.78, the futures price is 99.55, with a basis of 6.23 (after considering conversion factor) and a basis rate of 6.23% (approx.) [1]. - For 10 - year Treasury bond (T2603), the spot price is 108.04, the futures price is 100.42, with a basis of 7.62 (after considering conversion factor) and a basis rate of 7.62% (approx.) [1]. - For 30 - year Treasury bond (TL2603), the spot price is 125.30, the futures price is 110.91, with a basis of 14.39 (after considering conversion factor) and a basis rate of 14.39% (approx.) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Overall, the market is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in demand [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The mainland supply remains high, traditional demand is weak, and there is short - term pressure, but the long - term pressure may ease. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound [2]. Natural Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are falling, but considering Thailand's approaching low - production period, the raw material decline may be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but its own driving force is limited. Styrene is strong due to export and device issues, driving up the pure benzene price. Strategies include focusing on short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be stable and weak, and PVC is under pressure but has limited downward space due to cost support [5]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with supply remaining high and demand being cautious [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and glass is also expected to weaken, both can be treated bearishly [7]. Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices are affected by news, and the upside space is limited. Brent crude may oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [8]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in some contracts and inventories. The downstream PDH开工率 has decreased [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be bullish in the medium term. PTA, short - fiber, and polyester bottle - chip follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory significantly [13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Futures Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined, with L2605 down 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices, such as华东PP拉丝现货价格 and华北LLDPE现货价格, decreased [1]. - **Spreads**: PP59价差 increased by 13.16%, while LP05价差 decreased by 18.50% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48%, and PP装置开工率 increased slightly by 0.20% [1]. Methanol - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 declined, and most spot prices also decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 0.73%, while methanol港口库存 decreased by 6.63% [2]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream外采MTO装置开工率 decreased significantly by 11.22% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Yunnan国营全乳胶 and other prices declined, such as a 1.27% drop in Yunnan国营全乳胶 [3]. - **Production and开工率**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39%, and the开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, especially the dark - colored rubber [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Brent原油 and other upstream prices changed slightly, while pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends, with styrene being stronger [4]. - **Inventory**: Pure苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 8.3%, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 7.1% [4]. - **开工率**: Asian pure苯开工率 decreased by 0.9%, and国内苯乙烯开工率 remained stable [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Shandong 32%液碱折百价 and华东电石法PVC市场价 decreased [5]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 and PVC总开工率 increased slightly [5]. - **Inventory**:液碱华东库存 decreased by 3.2%, and PVC总社会库存 increased by 2.8% [5]. Urea - **Prices**: Urea期货 prices showed different trends, and spot prices were slightly loose [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 reached a high of 200,000 tons, and the厂内库存 decreased by 3.53% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass2605 and玻璃2609 declined, and soda ash2609 decreased slightly [7]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93%, and its weekly production increased by 8.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass厂库 decreased by 5.69%, and soda ash厂库 increased by 4.25% [7]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent原油 decreased by 0.3%, WTI原油 was stable, and SC原油 decreased by 2.81% [8]. - **Spreads**: Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, changed slightly [8]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and other refined oil prices had different changes [8]. LPG - **Prices**: Most LPG futures contracts declined, and the华南现货(民用气) and可交割现货 prices dropped to zero [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比 decreased by 2.77%, and LPG港口库存 decreased by 4.89% [11]. - **开工率**: The upstream主营炼厂开工率 increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - **Prices**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices had minor changes, and some polyester product prices increased slightly [13]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.7%, and PTA开工率 decreased by 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: MEG港口库存 decreased by 0.9% [13].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月20日 | 品种 | 爰新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -5.86 | 2.82 | 76.20% | 48.80% | -2.97 | H期配分去 | 1.66 | 74.50% | 66.10% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 0.33 | -21.95 | 84.00% | 50.2096 | IM期现价差 | -79.05 | -8.15 | 75.00% | 21.60% | -4.20 | 次月-当月 | 7.00 | 81.90% | 50.90% | | | -44.00 | 零月-当月 | -30.20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market showed an expanded decline yesterday, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 763 yuan per cubic meter, down 15.5 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day The overall log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, but the demand remains weak and the upward adjustment space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures contracts, the price of log 2603 decreased by 15.5 yuan to 763 yuan per cubic meter, with a decline of 1.99%; log 2605 decreased by 7.5 yuan to 782.5 yuan per cubic meter, with a decline of 0.95%; log 2607 decreased by 5.0 yuan to 796.0 yuan per cubic meter, with a decline of 0.62% The price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 770.0 yuan per cubic meter The main contract basis increased by 15.5 to -23.0 [1] - Among spot prices, the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 740 yuan per cubic meter, while the price of 4A medium radiata pine in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a growth rate of 1.33% Other spot prices remained unchanged [1] - The outer - market quotes of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly from 6.957 to 6.955, with a change of 0% The import theoretical cost decreased slightly from 753.77 yuan to 753.51 yuan, with a change of 0% [1] Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume in December was 204.0 million cubic meters, an increase of 14.8 million cubic meters compared to November, with a growth rate of 7.82% The number of ships at the port increased from 49.0 to 55.0, with a growth rate of 12.24% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 257 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 4.46% The inventory in Shandong was 192.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 2.04% The inventory in Jiangsu was 41.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7.4 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 15.18% [1][2] Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume (Weekly) - As of January 16, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 6.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.41 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 7% The daily average out - bound volume in Shandong was 3.24 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.45 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 16% The daily average out - bound volume in Jiangsu was 2.28 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 3% [2] Forecast of Log Arrivals - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 15, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 67% The arrival volume was about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the spot price is 5648, the futures price is 5548, and the basis is 100 [1]. - For silicon manganese (SM603), the spot price is 5808, the futures price is 5970, and the basis is -162 [1]. - For rebar (RB2605), the spot price is 3290, the futures price is 3140, and the basis is 150 [1]. - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the spot price is 3280, the futures price is 3299, and the basis is -19 [1]. - For iron ore (I2605), the spot price is 852, the futures price is 794, and the basis is 58 [1]. - For coke (J2605), the spot price is 1734, the futures price is 1721, and the basis is 13 [1]. - For coking coal (JM2605), the spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1156, and the basis is 19 [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2603), the spot price is 100940, the futures price is 101180, and the basis is -240 [1]. - For aluminum (AL2603), the spot price is 23870, the futures price is 24090, and the basis is -220 [1]. - For alumina (AO2605), the spot price is 2733, the futures price is 2641, and the basis is 92 [1]. - For zinc (ZN2603), the spot price is 24450, the futures price is 24350, and the basis is 100 [1]. - For tin (SN2602), the spot price is 389800, the futures price is 389500, and the basis is 300 [1]. - For stainless steel (SS2603), the spot price is 14470, the futures price is 14305, and the basis is 165 [1]. - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the spot price is 151000, the futures price is 147260, and the basis is 3740 [1]. - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8845, and the basis is 405 [1]. Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the spot price is 1045.3, the futures price is 1048.9, and the basis is -3.6 [1]. - For silver (AG2604), the spot price is 23189.0, the futures price is 23136.0, and the basis is 53.0 [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the spot price is 3080, the futures price is 2727.0, and the basis is 353.0 [1]. - For soybean oil (V2605), the spot price is 8450, the futures price is 7996.0, and the basis is 454.0 [1]. - For palm oil (P2605), the spot price is 8648.0, the futures price is 8620, and the basis is -28.0 [1]. - For rapeseed meal (RM2605), the spot price is 2390, the futures price is 2221.0, and the basis is 169.0 [1]. - For rapeseed oil (OI2605), the spot price is 9780, the futures price is 8902.0, and the basis is 878.0 [1]. - For corn (C2603), the spot price is 2355, the futures price is 2281.0, and the basis is 74.0 [1]. - For corn starch (CS2603), the spot price is 2620, the futures price is 2555.0, and the basis is 65.0 [1]. - For live pigs (H2603), the spot price is 13400, the futures price is 11705.0, and the basis is 1695.0 [1]. - For eggs (JD2603), the spot price is 3510, the futures price is 3023.0, and the basis is 487.0 [1]. - For cotton (CF2605), the spot price is 15650, the futures price is 14545.0, and the basis is 1105.0 [1]. - For white sugar (SR2605), the spot price is 5390, the futures price is 5244.0, and the basis is 146.0 [1]. - For apples (AP2605), the spot price is 9400, the futures price is 9345.0, and the basis is 55.0 [1]. - For red dates (CJ2605), the spot price is 8815.0, the futures price is 8000, and the basis is 815.0 [1]. Energy and Chemicals - For p - xylene (PX2603), the spot price is 7106.0, the futures price is 7055.0, and the basis is 51.0 [1]. - For PTA (TA2605), the spot price is 5030.0, the futures price is 4975.0, and the basis is 55.0 [1]. - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the spot price is 3755.0, the futures price is 3635.0, and the basis is 120.0 [1]. - For polyester staple fiber (PF2603), the spot price is 6435.0, the futures price is 6398.0, and the basis is 37.0 [1]. - For styrene (EB2602), the spot price is 7430.0, the futures price is 7295.0, and the basis is 135.0 [1]. - For methanol (MA2605), the spot price is 2212.0, the futures price is 2207.0, and the basis is 5.0 [1]. - For urea (UR2605), the spot price is 1772.0, the futures price is 1750.0, and the basis is 22.0 [1]. - For LLDPE (L2605), the spot price is 6750.0, the futures price is 6667.0, and the basis is 83.0 [1]. - For PP (PP2605), the spot price is 6575.0, the futures price is 6482.0, and the basis is 93.0 [1]. - For PVC (V2605), the spot price is 4801.0, the futures price is 4560.0, and the basis is 241.0 [1]. - For caustic soda (SH2603), the spot price is 2005.0, the futures price is 1984.0, and the basis is 21.0 [1]. - For LPG (PG2603), the spot price is 4998.0, the futures price is 4092.0, and the basis is 906.0 [1]. - For asphalt (BU2603), the spot price is 3142.0, the futures price is 3080.0, and the basis is -62.0 [1]. - For butadiene rubber (BR2603), the spot price is 11800.0, the futures price is 11605.0, and the basis is 195.0 [1]. - For glass (FG2605), the spot price is 936.0, the futures price is 1070.0, and the basis is -134.0 [1]. - For soda ash (SA2605), the spot price is 1142.0, the futures price is 1192.0, and the basis is -50.0 [1]. - For natural rubber (RU2605), the spot price is 15745.0, the futures price is 15500.0, and the basis is -245.0 [1]. Financial Futures - For IF2603.CFF, the spot price is 4734.5, the futures price is 4728.6, and the basis is -5.9 [1]. - For IH2603.CFE, the spot price is 3075.9, the futures price is 3077.6, and the basis is 1.7 [1]. - For IC2603.CFE, the spot price is 8287.9, the futures price is 8266.0, and the basis is -21.9 [1]. - For IM2603.CFE, the spot price is 8265.6, the futures price is 8186.6, and the basis is -79.0 [1]. - For 2 - year treasury bond (TS2603), the spot price is 102.40, the futures price is 100.09, and the basis is 0.01 (after considering conversion factor) [1]. - For 5 - year treasury bond (TF2603), the spot price is 105.78, the futures price is 99.55, and the basis is 0.07 (after considering conversion factor) [1]. - For 10 - year treasury bond (T2603), the spot price is 108.04, the futures price is 100.42, and the basis is 0.06 (after considering conversion factor) [1]. - For 30 - year treasury bond (TL2603), the spot price is 125.30, the futures price is 110.91, and the basis is 0.35 (after considering conversion factor) [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In general, the short - term news impact weakens, the market maintains a relatively strong oscillation, and the volatility declines. Gold long - positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff by the US and the exchange's position - limit measures have eased the capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level oscillation. Unilateral trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - Platinum and palladium are affected by the macro and supply - demand fundamentals and follow the relatively strong oscillation of gold in the short term, but the fluctuation space narrows. Platinum futures are recommended to be traded in a high - selling and low - buying manner around the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium shows relatively weaker performance than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1048.88 yuan/gram on January 19, up 16.56 yuan (1.60%) from January 16 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 23,189 yuan/10 grams on January 19, up 706 yuan (3.14%) from January 16 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 615.10 yuan/gram on January 19, up 5.05 yuan (0.83%) from January 16 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 477.95 yuan on January 19, up 8.60 yuan (1.83%) from January 16 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4,601.10 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 19.40 dollars (- 0.42%) from January 16 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 89.95 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 2.27 dollars (- 2.46%) from January 16 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 2,342.90 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 72.90 dollars (- 3.02%) from January 16 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1,846.50 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 19.00 dollars (- 1.02%) from January 16 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4,671.72 dollars/ounce, up 72.68 dollars (1.58%) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 94.40 dollars/ounce, up 4.26 dollars (4.73%) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 2,374.54 dollars/ounce, up 46.09 dollars (1.98%) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1,841.56 dollars/ounce, up 41.81 dollars (2.32%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1,045.27 yuan/gram, up 14.18 yuan (1.38%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 23,136 yuan/10 grams, up 495 yuan (2.19%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 605 yuan/gram, up 3 yuan (0.45%) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力: The current value was - 3.61, down 2.38 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力: The current value was - 53, down 211 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold: The current value was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 92.90% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver: The current value was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver: The current value was 51.15, up 1.05 (2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver: The current value was 45.23, down 0.68 (- 1.49%) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX palladium/platinum: The current value was 1.27, down 0.03 (- 2.02%) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium: The current value was 1.29, down 0.01 (- 0.99%) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 4.24%, up 0.09% (2.2%) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 3.59%, up 0.08% (2.3%) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: The current value was 1.91%, up 0.05% (2.7%) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index: The current value was 99.04, down 0.33 (- 0.33%) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate: The current value was 6.9568, down 0.0106 from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory: The current value was 1,000,530 grams, down 63 grams (- 0.06%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory: The current value was 617,760 kilograms, down 9,083 kilograms (- 1.45%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory: The current value was 36,135,901 ounces, up 3,000 ounces (0.01%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory: The current value was 429,156,441 ounces, down 4,225,669 ounces (- 0.98%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts: The current value was 18,864,397 ounces, up 40,600 ounces (0.22%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts: The current value was 120,632,557 ounces, down 2,571,966 ounces (- 2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SPDR gold ETF position: The current value was 1,086 tons, up 10.87 tons (1.01%) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF position: The current value was 16,073 tons, up 11.28 tons (0.07%) from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares experienced a decline after continuous volume increase, with significant trading divergence, shrinking trading volume, and cooling market sentiment. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is around 1.85%, and the bond market trend may depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in Q1. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between 1.83% - 1.88% and the T2603 contract between 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range - bound operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and basis - widening strategies for TS, T, and TF contracts [2] - Gold prices continued to hit new highs due to the intensification of disputes between the US, Europe, and Greenland. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value. Silver trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold for volatility - reduction gains. Platinum futures should be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy near the 20 - day moving average, with a price range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium is weaker than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 A - shares - A - shares had a decline after continuous volume increase, with significant trading divergence, shrinking trading volume, and cooling market sentiment. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.85%, and the bond market trend may depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in Q1. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern, with the 10 - year bond yield fluctuating between 1.83% - 1.88% and the T2603 contract between 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range - bound operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and basis - widening strategies for TS, T, and TF contracts [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value. Silver trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold for volatility - reduction gains. Platinum futures should be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy near the 20 - day moving average, with a price range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium is weaker than platinum, and out - of - the money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [2] 3.4 Shipping - The container shipping market showed a downward trend [2] 3.5 Steel - Steel prices may be dragged down by the weakening of raw material prices. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be held [2] 3.6 Black Metals - Iron ore supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are continuously increasing. The price fluctuates widely in the range of 770 - 830. Coking coal prices in Shanxi have more increases than decreases, with improved trading volume, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures fluctuations. It is considered to be in a weak and volatile state, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke can be adopted. Coke prices are proposed to be raised by mainstream coke enterprises, and port trading prices follow futures fluctuations. It is also in a weak and volatile state, and the same arbitrage strategy can be used. Ferrosilicon has cost support and marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a wide - range fluctuation between 5300 - 5800. Manganese - silicon has a general increase in manganese ore overseas quotes, and market sentiment has declined, with a wide - range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000 [2] 3.7 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are continuously tight. Light long positions can be held cautiously, with the main contract focusing on the support at 97500 - 98500. Alumina spot inventories increased by 7.9 tons weekly, and the market is in a weak and volatile state. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2900, and short positions can be taken on rallies. Aluminum is in a high - level volatile state, and there is a risk of an emotional correction in the short term. The main contract operates in the range of 23000 - 25000. It is not recommended to chase long positions due to signs of over - increase, and long positions can be established after a correction. Aluminum alloy inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot market maintains rigid demand. The main contract operates in the range of 22000 - 24000, and an arbitrage strategy of long AD03 and short AL03 can be adopted. Zinc prices are in a corrective state, and the spot premium is stable. The main contract focuses on the support at 23800, and a long - term long - on - dips strategy can be adopted, and the cross - market reverse spread can be held. Tin market sentiment has declined, and tin prices opened lower at night. Futures operations should be cautious. Nickel has gradually digested the impact of news, and the market is in a volatile adjustment state. The main contract operates in the range of 138000 - 148000. Stainless steel is mainly in a narrow - range volatile state, with a game between cost and supply - demand. The main contract operates in the range of 13800 - 14600 [2] 3.8 New Energy - Industrial silicon futures rose due to the news of production cuts by large - scale enterprises. The main contract operates in the range of 8200 - 9200. Polysilicon spot average prices increased slightly, and futures are in a strong and volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range adjustment state, with the main contract operating in the range of 140000 - 150000. Short - term range - bound operations can be carried out [2] 3.9 Energy Chemicals - PX is under short - term pressure due to increased supply expectations and weak near - term supply - demand under high valuation. It fluctuates between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and can be considered for long positions in the medium term. The PX 5 - 9 spread can be observed for now. PTA has a limited pre - holiday driving force under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation and follows raw material fluctuations. It fluctuates between 4900 - 5300 in the short term, and long positions can be tried below 5000. The TA 5 - 9 spread can be in a low - level positive spread. Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak and follows raw material fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin on the disk can be shorted when it is high. Bottle - chip production lines are being overhauled, and factories are continuously reducing inventories, which supports the processing margin. The strategy is the same as that of PTA. The main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold on rallies. Ethylene glycol is facing seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. The price in January is still under pressure. EG 5 - 9 can be shorted on rallies, and the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100 can hold. Pure benzene supply - demand has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventories. Shorting opportunities for BZ03 can be focused on, and the EB - BZ spread can be shorted when it is high. Styrene supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation. It is not recommended to chase long positions in the short term. Shorting opportunities for EB03 and shorting opportunities for high EB processing margins can be focused on. LLDPE has a negative spread in orders and a decline in trading volume. Previous long positions have taken profits, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP has a weak supply - demand situation and a weak and volatile price. PDH profit expansion can be held. Methanol has a decline in geopolitical disturbances and light trading volume, with a weak price. It is advisable to wait and see. Caustic soda supply - demand remains weak, and the spot price is under pressure. It is advisable to wait and see. PVC export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply - demand. Market fluctuations are amplified, and short positions can wait and see. Urea trading has cooled down, and market confidence has weakened. Previous long positions can take profits at the right time, and the lower support level can be observed. Soda ash production capacity has increased, and daily output has reached a new high, while demand is still weak. It is in a weak and volatile state. Glass is in the off - season, with a continuous decline in the production - sales rate. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and production line changes. It is in a weak and volatile state. Natural rubber prices are weak and volatile due to the decline in overseas raw material prices. It is advisable to wait and see. Synthetic rubber is under pressure due to the decline in commodity sentiment and high inventory in the BR industry chain. Opportunities to expand the spread between BR2603 and NR2603 can be focused on [2] 3.10 Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a range - bound and weak state due to lack of market drivers. Pig supply is still at a high level, and the market is under pressure, with prices in a range - bound state. Corn transportation is blocked, and prices are at a high - level and volatile state. Edible oils may have a short - term correction due to the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and palm oil may fluctuate around 8650 in the short term. Sugar prices are under pressure on rallies due to the holiday closure of the raw sugar market. Cotton prices are in a weak adjustment state due to the continuous game between supply and demand. Egg prices are mainly stable, and the market is in a range - bound state. Apple inventory reduction progress is slow, and futures prices are in a weak and volatile state. Put options can be bought. Jujube demand is weak, and futures prices are declining. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [2]