Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - March 6, 2026 [7] Report Author - Ye Qianning, Z0016628 [7] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5828, the basis rate is -0.86%, and the historical quantile is 50.40% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6092, the basis rate is 0.46%, and the historical quantile is 51.90% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3230, the basis rate is 0.65%, and the historical quantile is 29.00% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3209, the basis rate is 0.65%, and the historical quantile is 41.80% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 810, the basis rate is 6.66%, and the historical quantile is 86.11% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1734, the basis rate is 3.44%, and the historical quantile is 86.11% [1] - For coking coal (JM2605), the futures price is 1156, the basis rate is 4.57%, and the historical quantile is 35.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2604), the futures price is 101475, the basis rate is 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 86.25% [1] - For aluminum (AL2604), the futures price is 25120, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile is 99.37% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2648, the basis rate is 11.89%, and the historical quantile is 0.49% [1] - For zinc (ZN2604), the futures price is 24640, the basis rate is -0.41%, and the historical quantile is 75.62% [1] - For tin (SN2604), the futures price is 406850, the basis rate is 3.84%, and the historical quantile is 99.37% [1] - For nickel (MISEOF), the futures price is 136800, the basis rate is 0.39%, and the historical quantile is 79.79% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2604), the futures price is 14450, the basis rate is 3.65%, and the historical quantile is 89.27% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 155860, the basis rate is 0.09%, and the historical quantile is 58.81% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the futures price is 1152.0, the basis rate is -0.30%, and the historical quantile is 19.00% [1] - For silver (AG2604), the futures price is 21639.0, the basis rate is -2.60%, and the historical quantile is 2.80% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2843.0, the basis rate is 5.17%, and the historical quantile is 55.20% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8370.0, the basis rate is 2.63%, and the historical quantile is 46.10% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9070.0, the basis rate is -0.88%, and the historical quantile is 3.90% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2318.0, the basis rate is 0.95%, and the historical quantile is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9489.0, the basis rate is 6.54%, and the historical quantile is 94.00% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2384.0, the basis rate is 1.30%, and the historical quantile is 50.90% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2696.0, the basis rate is 1.26%, and the historical quantile is 15.60% [1] - For live pigs (H2605), the futures price is 11140.0, the basis rate is -5.75%, and the historical quantile is 23.70% [1] - For eggs (JD2605), the futures price is 3396.0, the basis rate is -15.49%, and the historical quantile is 6.50% [1] - For cotton (CF605), the futures price is 16400, the basis rate is 7.54%, and the historical quantile is 77.40% [1] - For white sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5390, the basis rate is 1.13%, and the historical quantile is 8.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 10753.0, the basis rate is -8.86%, and the historical quantile is 0.10% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 8980.0, the basis rate is -12.03%, and the historical quantile is 40.50% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 8344.0, the basis rate is 0.55%, and the historical quantile is 44.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 5820.0, the basis rate is -0.17%, and the historical quantile is 55.00% [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the futures price is 4170.0, the basis rate is -0.33%, and the historical quantile is 54.30% [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF604), the futures price is 7205.0, the basis rate is -1.03%, and the historical quantile is 23.20% [1] - For styrene (EB2604), the futures price is 8656.0, the basis rate is 1.84%, and the historical quantile is 60.50% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 2480.0, the basis rate is -0.28%, and the historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1814.0, the basis rate is 3.64%, and the historical quantile is 39.30% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 7393.0, the basis rate is 0.09%, and the historical quantile is 26.70% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 7480.0, the basis rate is 0.29%, and the historical quantile is 32.70% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5016.0, the basis rate is -3.91%, and the historical quantile is 30.20% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 1981.3, the basis rate is -12.87%, and the historical quantile is 16.80% [1] - For LPG (PG2604), the futures price is 5148.0, the basis rate is 0.41%, and the historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - For asphalt (BU2604), the futures price is 3550.0, the basis rate is -2.98%, and the historical quantile is 29.10% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2604), the futures price is 13300.0, the basis rate is -6.40%, and the historical quantile is 0.60% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1058.0, the basis rate is -11.13%, and the historical quantile is 33.82% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1151.0, the basis rate is -3.48%, and the historical quantile is 31.72% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16555.0, the basis rate is 0.87%, and the historical quantile is 98.74% [1] Financial Futures - For IF2603.CFE, the futures price is 4647.7, the basis rate is -0.40%, and the historical quantile is 25.40% [1] - For IH2603.CFE, the futures price is 2988.5, the basis rate is -0.05%, and the historical quantile is 47.10% [1] - For IC2603.CFE, the futures price is 8309.2, the basis rate is -0.65%, and the historical quantile is 16.40% [1] - For IM2603.CFE, the futures price is 8171.1, the basis rate is -0.51%, and the historical quantile is 39.10% [1] - For 2 - year bond (TS2606), the futures price is 100.03, the basis rate is -0.03%, and the historical quantile is 18.40% [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2606), the futures price is 100.12, the basis rate is 0.04%, and the historical quantile is 35.10% [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2606), the futures price is 108.53, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 24.20% [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2606), the futures price is 123.82, the basis rate is 0.47%, and the historical quantile is 76.30% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran initially drove up precious metal prices due to increased risk - aversion, but the situation reversed quickly. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran led to energy transportation disruptions, inflation pressure, and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, causing a sharp correction in precious metal prices [1]. - In the new market paradigm, the role of traditional safe - haven assets has weakened during the Iran conflict. Due to factors such as de - globalization, de - dollarization, and AI algorithm trading, the flow of funds has changed, and the original driving logic has reversed. The prices of US Treasuries and precious metals are under pressure due to expectations of tight monetary policy [2][4]. - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the current gold bull market to peak, but gold still has value in asset allocation under the "de - dollarization" trend. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation, US inflation data, and the Fed's stance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - After the US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices first rose due to risk - aversion but then sharply corrected. On Wednesday morning, the main contracts of Shanghai silver and platinum futures fell by more than 5%, erasing the gains since late February, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell by more than 3% before rebounding in the afternoon [1]. Driving Analysis - In the past, geopolitical conflicts would drive funds to safe - haven assets, but in this US - Iran conflict, traditional safe - haven assets did not perform as expected. In the new market paradigm, funds first flow to the currencies of net oil - exporting countries, and the currencies of net oil - importing countries are under pressure [2]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may lead to a global oil supply disruption and an energy crisis, increasing the possibility of the Fed delaying rate cuts or even raising rates again. Market concerns about a new Fed chairman's possible tendency to shrink the balance sheet also intensify liquidity tightness, suppressing the prices of US Treasuries and precious metals [2][4]. Impact on Precious Metals - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the gold bull market to peak, but gold shows some resilience due to demand from central bank purchases and ETF investments. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation and the Fed's stance on inflation [5]. - For gold, short - term support at the 20 - day moving average should be monitored, and long positions can consider taking profits at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options for protection. For silver, with a continuous decline in exchange inventories and tight supply, but high price volatility, it may test the 60 - day moving average again, and short - selling at high prices above $95 or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. For platinum and palladium, which follow the fluctuations of gold and silver and have limited short - term upward momentum, selling out - of - the - money call options at high prices can be considered [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term: Due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, market sentiment fluctuates greatly, causing wide - range fluctuations in tin prices. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - drivers. - Medium - to long - term: The bullish logic for tin prices still exists. After sentiment stabilizes, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][2]. Aluminum - Short - term: The macro situation is the key variable this week. It is recommended to trade cautiously to prevent short - term price retracements caused by profit - taking. The expected range for the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton. - Medium - to long - term: The global supply - demand balance pattern will be maintained, and the long - term bullish logic for aluminum prices remains unchanged [5]. Nickel - The recent overseas macro uncertainty increases. The raw material end has strong support, but weak demand and high inventory are the main constraints. The bottom support is strong, but the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain range - bound fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [6]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks have increased uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations from the meeting window have a certain boosting effect. The supply - demand fundamentals are slowly recovering, and costs and demand are in a continuous game. In the short term, it is expected to be mainly in a state of shock adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainty and magnify macro risks. The lithium carbonate price is over - valued, and funds are flowing more towards the oil - chemical and precious metal sectors. The single - sided driving force for new energy is weak. In the short term, it is expected to have wide - range shock adjustments, with the main contract reference range of 150,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to policy guidance during the meeting period [9]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate within a range in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton. The key turning point after the festival lies in the matching degree between the downstream resumption of work and order recovery and the supply increase speed, as well as the improvement of scrap aluminum circulation. If there is a phased increase in terminal orders, the ADC12 price still has room to rise [10]. Copper - Short - term: The copper price is expected to maintain a high level in March, with a phased mismatch between supply and demand, continuous inventory accumulation, and limited upward driving force for prices. - Medium - to long - term: The copper fundamentals are still good. The supply side is constrained by capital expenditure, and the AI expectation brings incremental demand for power grid upgrading and transformation. The copper price is still optimistic in the long run. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work rhythm and overseas macro - drivers. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support around 100,000 yuan/ton [11]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. If the downstream resumption of work in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the zinc price performance in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in zinc ore TC and demand, with the main contract focusing on the support around 23,800 yuan/ton [13]. Industrial Silicon - In March, both supply and demand are expected to be strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of production and sales after the Lantern Festival. Although there is new production capacity to be put into operation, the demand - side capacity release is greater than the supply - side. The organic silicon industry is expected to achieve positive supply - demand repair. The futures price has support at the cost level. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on export demand. It is recommended to hold long positions around 8,200 yuan/ton with caution and pay attention to position reduction or liquidation [15]. Polysilicon - Although the current supply pressure is large, the demand is expected to recover in March. However, the annual demand remains weak. If there is no further regulation on the supply side, attention should be paid to the price decline pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If you want to participate, you can try long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss setting [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.40% to 406,850 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium was 52.31% [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss was 8,650.12 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.90 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2603 - 2604 spread increased by 75.16% to - 380 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, and the SMM refined tin output in February was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF inventory increased by 11.25% to 12,253 tons, and the social inventory increased by 15.26% to 13,109 tons [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.99% to 25,120 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 140 yuan/ton [5]. - **Ratio and Profit and Loss**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum was - 3,003 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.37 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The AL 2603 - 2604 spread was - 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The alumina output in February was 660.02 million tons, a decrease of 10.63%; the domestic electrolytic aluminum output in February was 346 million tons, a decrease of 8.91% [5]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory decreased by 0.43% to 459,000 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 1.256 million tons [5]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.14% to 140,350 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.62% to 6,650 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.69% to 113,324 yuan/ton [6]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.36% to 32,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 920 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel output decreased by 7.59% to 32,550 tons, and the refined nickel import volume increased by 84.63% to 23,394 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 3.43% to 60,791 tons [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,450 yuan/ton, and the basis was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.75% [7]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 14 US dollars/wet ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 315 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 27.89% to 66,633 tons, and the stainless steel net export volume increased by 15.96% to 340,000 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.24% to 538,600 tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.30% to 156,000 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 85.11% to 140 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2603 - 2605 spread was - 2,840 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate output in February was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 15.13%, and the demand was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 10.57% [9]. - **Inventory**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in February decreased by 4.76% to 28,353 tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The price of cast aluminum alloy increased by 1.23% to 23,420 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has a longer furnace - shutdown period this year, and the resumption of work is slow. The demand side is relatively weak, but the demand is expected to improve in March [10]. - **Inventory**: The post - festival social inventory shows a slight decline [10]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.02% to 101,475 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 210 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: The electrolytic copper output in February was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13%, and the electrolytic copper import volume in December was 260,200 tons, a decrease of 4.02% [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased by 8.56% to 577,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 43.69% to 391,500 tons [11]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.98% to 24,710 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 105 yuan/ton [13]. - **Ratio and Profit and Loss**: The import loss was - 2,681 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.40 [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 75 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The refined zinc output in February was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 9.99%, and the refined zinc import volume in December was 8,800 tons, a decrease of 51.94% [13]. - **Inventory**: The domestic zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 16.55% to 256,300 tons [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 27.50% to 255 yuan/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 0.62% to 8,795 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon output was 375,500 tons, a decrease of 5.44%, and the national industrial silicon starting rate was 48.33%, a decrease of 25.17% [15]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 1.25% to 553,000 tons [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.01% to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract price increased by 0.19% to 42,280 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The near - month - to - first - continuous spread was - 155 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon output was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75 GW, an increase of 8.20% [16]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 333,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.90% to 27.29 GW [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including F, H, IC, and IM. It also shows the cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Bond Futures - The report provides the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, along with their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold: After a callback, it seeks support at the 20 - day moving average. Short - term trends are volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Long positions can take profits at high prices or sell out - of - the - money call options for protection. - Silver: The long - term upward logic of supply inventory shortage and strong investment demand remains valid, but short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and Palladium: Supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, but dragged down by gold and silver, they maintain a weak shock in the short term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. 2.4 Container Shipping - The Middle East conflict has affected shipping routes. MSK has opened the freight rate for March at $2200, corresponding to around 1700 points on the disk. After a continuous sharp rise, the futures price has a premium over the current freight rate. It is expected to have larger fluctuations and operate in a shock. Investors should participate rationally and hold positive spreads [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: F: - 18.69, up 52.80% from the previous day, 25.40% in the 1 - year percentile and 47.10% in the all - time percentile; H: - 1.45, up 0.56, 56.50% in the 1 - year percentile and 47.10% in the all - time percentile; IC: - 53.57, down 24.03, 48.30% in the 1 - year percentile and 16.40% in the all - time percentile; IM: - 41.12, down 10.80, 25.00% in the 1 - year percentile and 39.10% in the all - time percentile [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: For example, the next - month - to - current - month spread of F is - 14.00, down 3.40, 42.20% in the 1 - year percentile and 31.10% in the all - time percentile [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For example, IC/IF is 1.7835, down 0.0069, 94.60% in the 1 - year percentile and 99.00% in the all - time percentile [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Basis**: TS: 1.4270, down 0.0291, 18.60% since listing; TF: 1.3913, up 0.0399, 34.00% since listing; T: 1.4327, up 0.0624, 48.90% since listing; TL: 1.3325, up 0.5289, 39.80% since listing [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: For example, the current - season - to - next - season spread of TF is 0.0050, up 0.0250, 23.20% since listing [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For example, TS - TF is - 3.6130, up 0.0140, 6.60% since listing [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2604: 1152.00 yuan/g, down 1.06, - 0.09%; AG2604: 21639 yuan/10g, down 215, - 0.98%; PT2606: 563.05, up 0.45, 0.08%; PD2606: 428.00 yuan/g, down 5.80, - 1.34% [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold: 5093.30, down 58.30, - 1.13%; COMEX silver: 82.52, down 1.25, - 1.49%; NYMEX platinum: 2128.20, down 37.60, - 1.74%; NYMEX palladium: 1650.00, down 48.50, - 2.86% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold: 5084.69, down 35.85, - 0.70%; London silver: 82.26, down 1.28, - 1.54%; Spot platinum: 2120.10, down 46.90, - 2.16%; Spot palladium: 1629.50, down 38.00, - 2.28% [3]. - **Differences**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold: - 3.44, down 3.33, 46.10%; Silver TD - Shanghai silver: - 571, down 278, 60.60% [3]. - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver: 61.72, up 0.22, 0.36%; SHFE gold/silver: 53.24, up 0.48, 0.90% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.13, up 0.04, 1.0%; 2 - year US Treasury yield: 3.57, up 0.03, 0.8%; 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: 1.82, up 0.02, 1.1%; US dollar index: 99.04, up 0.25, 0.25%; Offshore RMB exchange rate: 6.9184, up 0.0238, 0.35% [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory: 105033, unchanged, 0.00%; SHFE silver inventory: 272721 kg, down 22102, - 7.50%; COMEX gold inventory: 33100294, up 29808, 0.18%; COMEX silver inventory: 351341925, down 877946, - 0.25% [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK: $2240/FEU, up 30, 1.36%; CMA: $4193/FEU, unchanged, 0.00%; MSC: $2740/FEU, up 100, 3.79%; ONE: $2735/FEU, unchanged, 0.00%; OOCL: $4030/FEU, unchanged, 0.00% [5]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route): 1463.40, down 110.1, - 7.00%; SCFIS (US West route): 1045.08, down 66.9, - 6.02%; SCFI composite index: 1333.11, up 81.6, 6.52% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2604 (main contract): 1768.0, down 141.5, - 7.41%; Basis (main contract): - 304.6, up 141.5, - 31.72% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply: 3388.34 ATEU, unchanged, 0.00%; Port punctuality rate (Shanghai): 38.18, down 3.63, - 8.68%; Port berthing situation (Shanghai): 351.00, down 3.00, - 0.85% [5]. - **Overseas Economy**: Eurozone composite PMI: 51.90, up 0.60, 1.17%; EU consumer confidence index: - 11.70, unchanged, 0.00%; US manufacturing PMI index: 52.40, down 0.20, - 0.38% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Report's Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with rebar slightly stronger and hot-rolled coil weaker, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar converged. The spread between May and October contracts of rebar strengthened, while that of hot-rolled coil remained stable. Steel mill's hot metal production decreased due to environmental protection factors, inventory continued to decline seasonally, and apparent demand rebounded. Attention should be paid to the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report at the Two Sessions basically met expectations, with little fluctuation in domestic demand expectations. The conflict between the US and Iran affected steel export routes, leading to a weak short - term export expectation. The support levels of rebar and hot-rolled coil are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year increased by nearly 30 million tons. The arrival volume decreased. The hot metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure at ports was prominent. The supply pressure will still suppress ore prices, and the concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a volatile trend. The mainstream steel mills initiated the first - round price cut on March 4, which is expected to take effect on March 6, and port prices were weakly stable. Coking profit recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. During the Two Sessions, steel mill production limits led to a decrease in hot metal production, weakening the restocking demand. The overall inventory increased slightly, and the coke supply and demand were basically balanced in the short term. Coking coal futures also showed a volatile trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weakly running, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. After the Spring Festival, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily coal output increased. Steel mills limited production during the Two Sessions, and the mainstream steel mills cut the coke price. The overall inventory decreased seasonally, but the upstream inventory increase was bearish. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 for coke and 1050 - 1200 for coking coal [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures contract fluctuated at a high level. After the Spring Festival, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand for ferrosilicon increased marginally after the festival. The ferromanganese futures contract continued to rise. The supply of ferromanganese increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value was also at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The hot metal production decreased significantly due to production limits during the Two Sessions, and the finished product inventory was low. The terminal demand for exports was weakened by the US - Iran conflict. The overall demand will continue to improve marginally after the festival. It is expected that the price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will intensify. For ferrosilicon, the price may face pressure when rebounding to the FOB export cost. For ferromanganese, short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads can be tried, and attention should be paid to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions had different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different products showed different changes, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 44 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 0.5 to 797.2, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production increased by 8.2 to 173.3, an increase of 5.0%, with the electric furnace production increasing significantly by 9.1 to 11.7, an increase of 349.6%. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.5 to 301.1, a decrease of 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 105.9 to 1952.0, an increase of 5.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 75.1 to 875.7, an increase of 9.4%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 19.5 to 471.7, an increase of 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.2 to 5.3, an increase of 3.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 126.7 to 691.4, an increase of 22.4%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 64.7 to 98.2, an increase of 192.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 13.2 to 281.6, an increase of 4.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increasing by 5.5 to 856.6, an increase of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed, for example, the 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines decreased by 1.5 to 97.6, a decrease of 1.6% [4]. Production and Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a decrease of 0.3%. The global shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, an increase of 0.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3, an increase of 1.2%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.41 to 6072.2, a decrease of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a decrease of 15.1%. The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties had different changes. For example, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coke 05 contract increased by 5 to 1677, an increase of 0.3% [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coking coal varieties also had different changes. For example, the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal 05 contract increased by 9 to 1106, an increase of 0.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production was 883. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4 to 63.9, a decrease of 0.5%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.0, a decrease of 0.2%. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines' raw coal decreased by 144.1 to 696.4, a decrease of 17.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 74.4 to 349.6, a decrease of 17.5% [7]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The demand for coke was affected by the decrease in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.6 to 984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5 to 110.3, an increase of 2.3%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.9 to 671.3, a decrease of 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal decreased by 3.1 to 121.0, a decrease of 2.5%, and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 48.9 to 949.5, a decrease of 4.9% [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot and Futures - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5828.0, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 28 to 6092.0 [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 9.4 to 6063.2, and the production profit decreased by 9.3 to - 213.2. The production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 26.6 to 6312.4 [8]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.2 to 9.7, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.1 to 19.6, a decrease of 0.8% [8]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8, with an increase of 1.7%. The weekly ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 11.1, an increase of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4% [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.4 to 6.6, a decrease of 5.9%. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.7, a decrease of 2.8% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Polyolefin Industry**: The intraday disk and spot prices fluctuated greatly, and trading weakened. The upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, strongly boosting the market from the cost side. The supply side showed differentiation, with high domestic PE supply and increased losses in oil - based and naphtha - based routes; PP production was slow due to planned maintenance in March and rising raw material prices. The demand side was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream factory operating rates at a seasonal low. Although the current industry profit is in a historically low range and the real - world fundamentals are under pressure, the market has strong expectations for post - holiday restocking demand from downstream concentrated resumption of work. [1] - **Methanol Industry**: Methanol futures fluctuated widely, and spot and near - month contracts were purchased on - demand. The overall trading for the day was okay. The escalation of the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz limited Iranian methanol exports, triggering market concerns about a global supply interruption and a significant increase in geopolitical risk premiums. Fundamentally, domestic operating rates remained high, but the import side was affected by the geopolitical conflict, with increased instability of facilities and a significant decline in March arrivals. The demand side was weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and a delay in the start - up of new MTO plants. Port inventories were at a historically medium - high level, but there were expectations of destocking due to the expected reduction in imports. [3] - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight, the WTI April contract closed at $81.01 per barrel, up 8.51%, and the Brent May contract closed at $84.48 per barrel, up 3.78%. The sharp increase in freight rates made the delivery cost of SC futures more than $15 above Brent, and the domestic premium continued to rise. If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices will continue to rise significantly; if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage, oil prices will face the risk of a large - scale return of geopolitical and freight insurance premiums. Historically, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices is mostly short - lived. After four consecutive days of sharp increases, long positions should be held with caution. [5] - **Urea Industry**: On the 5th, urea futures declined after reaching a high, and spot prices remained weak. The supply side had a slight increase in the operating rate this week, with daily production exceeding 220,000 tons, resulting in short - term supply pressure. The demand side had stable demand for agricultural green - turning fertilizers, and the demand for industrial compound fertilizers and board factories was gradually recovering. Affected by the domestic urea guidance price limit and the lack of new export news, the market was mostly on the sidelines regarding high prices, and downstream factories mostly purchased on - demand. In the short term, urea prices are expected to continue to trade in a high - level consolidation range. [8] - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: On the 5th, caustic soda futures hit the daily limit, and spot prices remained stable overall. High - concentration caustic soda exports showed a good trend, and the production of 50% caustic soda in the province had not fully recovered, so high - concentration caustic soda may have a certain upward trend in the short term. The supply side had a slow recovery of caustic soda plant loads, and there was still pressure on industry inventory accumulation. The demand side had stable demand from the main alumina downstream and an improvement in non - aluminum downstream demand, which supported the caustic soda price. The increase in liquid chlorine prices further improved the comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali enterprises. PVC spot and futures prices fluctuated upward. The supply side maintained a high level, and domestic demand was normal. Foreign trade exports were affected by unstable freight rates and were waiting for new quotes. The cost - end transmission from crude oil - ethylene - PVC was uncertain, and the market sentiment was affected by concerns about energy. [9] - **Glass and Soda Ash Industry**: The futures of soda ash main contract SA605 oscillated upward, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton. The supply side had a slight increase in weekly production, and there were expectations of supply contraction due to shutdown and maintenance. The demand side had a general trading atmosphere, with low - price transactions being the main focus. The inventory in factories reached a new high. In the current situation of weak demand and high inventory, caution should be exercised regarding upstream manufacturers. The futures of glass main contract FG605 increased slightly, closing at 1,055 yuan/ton. The downstream resumption of work was less than expected, and the trading atmosphere was light. The supply side had a low daily melting volume, and the demand side was restricted by weather and environmental protection policies, with delayed full - scale resumption of work and mainly inventory digestion after resumption. The inventory of production enterprises continued to accumulate significantly. [10] - **Natural Rubber Industry**: On the supply side, overseas raw material prices have been rising weakly recently, and with the approaching of the domestic production area tapping window, the market's expectation of new supply has increased. On the demand side, the semi - steel tire market was relatively stable, with post - holiday regular restocking in the domestic market, and individual dealer order fairs boosting channel purchase demand, and a significant increase in terminal retail sales volume; exports were affected by the weakening of the European and Middle Eastern markets, but the EU has not yet implemented a temporary anti - dumping tax, and overall orders still had resilience. The all - steel tire domestic market had concentrated restocking, and dealer order fairs boosted purchase enthusiasm, with good overall channel purchase sentiment; exports were under significant pressure, and the shipment to the Middle East and European markets weakened. Overall, although the domestic restocking of all - steel tires provided short - term support, the drag of overseas geopolitical risks on tire exports was more persistent, and the demand side generally suppressed rubber prices. However, geopolitical conflicts also made BR difficult to fall and provided some positive support to rubber prices. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate. [11] - **LPG Industry**: The prices of LPG futures contracts declined. The inventory of LPG refineries and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries showed different trends. The upstream main refinery operating rate remained unchanged, the sample enterprise weekly production - sales rate decreased slightly, the downstream PDH operating rate decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates remained stable. [13] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: Affected by geopolitics, the transportation of crude oil has been blocked recently, and the operating expectations of Asian refineries have been affected. Some domestic and foreign refineries have made defensive load adjustments, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The profit of the downstream styrene industry has been significantly repaired, and the load has remained at a relatively high level, with strong short - term demand support. Although the supply - demand expectations of pure benzene have improved, due to the remaining import pressure and the high inventory at ports, the self - driving force of pure benzene is still limited, and its price follows the fluctuations of oil prices and downstream styrene. For styrene, due to good industry profits, the load of styrene factories has increased significantly. In March, some styrene devices are expected to restart, but there are also some device maintenance plans, so the supply increase in March is expected to be limited. The demand side has a gradual recovery of post - holiday downstream demand, and combined with previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene in March is expected to have a slight destocking. Recently, oil prices have been strong due to the boost of the Middle East geopolitical situation, and combined with the blocked export of styrene from the Middle East due to transportation, domestic styrene has new export orders, and it is expected to be boosted in the short term. [16] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Affected by geopolitics, some domestic and foreign refineries have made defensive load adjustments, and the supply of PX is expected to decline. Starting from March, some domestic and foreign maintenance plans will be implemented one after another. Combined with the early restart or load increase of some TA devices due to improved processing fees after the holiday, the supply - demand expectations of PX have improved. The Middle East geopolitical situation also provides cost - side support to PX, and PX is expected to be strong in the short term. After the holiday, the load of PTA has increased, and the March PTA device maintenance plan may be less than expected. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, the sharp rise in oil prices has driven up the prices of the industrial chain, but the increase in the spot price of raw material PX is greater, and the PTA processing margin has been compressed. The short - term self - driving force of PTA is limited, and its absolute price follows the cost - side fluctuations. The Middle East geopolitical situation is tense, and the short - term crude oil price is expected to continue to rise, which enhances the cost support for ethylene glycol. In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol will significantly decline, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level from mid - March. At the same time, the polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and ethylene glycol is expected to have a slight destocking. Currently, the supply and demand of short - fiber are both weak. The short - term driving force of short - fiber is weak, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials. For bottle - chips, the domestic supply will gradually increase in March, and the terminal demand is in the recovery stage, with weakening expectations. The absolute price of bottle - chips still follows the cost - side fluctuations, but the processing fee may decline. [17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 showed different trends on March 5th compared to March 4th. The L59, PP59, and LP05 spreads also changed. Spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LLDPE increased. [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE enterprise inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. PP inventory decreased. PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while PE and PP downstream weighted operating rates increased. [1] Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased, and the MA59 spread decreased significantly. The Taicang basis decreased, and the MTO05 disk increased. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. [3] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased, while port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased, the Northwest enterprise production - sales rate decreased, and the downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged, while the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates increased. [3] Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased significantly on March 5th compared to March 4th. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also showed different trends. [5] - **Outlook**: Close attention should be paid to the appointment of Iran's new supreme leader, the safety of Middle East energy facilities, and the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz. [5] Urea Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: Urea futures declined after reaching a high, and spot prices were weak. The domestic urea daily production and weekly production increased, the device maintenance loss decreased, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased. The production enterprise order days increased. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, urea prices are expected to continue to trade in a high - level consolidation range, and attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation. [8] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed different trends. The export profits of caustic soda and PVC decreased. The caustic soda industry operating rate increased slightly, the PVC total operating rate remained unchanged, and the inventory of caustic soda factories increased, while the inventory of PVC upstream factories and total social inventory decreased slightly. [9] - **Outlook**: For caustic soda, short - term market increases are mainly due to optimistic expectations brought by geopolitical conflicts, and caution should be exercised regarding the decline of the disk after the easing of the situation. For PVC, the supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices may be passively pushed up due to concerns about the cost side. [9] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures increased. The supply of soda ash increased slightly, and the inventory of soda ash factories increased. The supply of glass was at a low level, and the inventory of glass production enterprises continued to accumulate. [10] - **Outlook**: For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see due to the high risk of short - selling on rebounds. For glass, it is recommended to short on rebounds or wait and see, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and inventory changes. [10] Natural Rubber Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged, and the basis increased significantly. The prices of Thai standard mixed rubber and international cup rubber and glue showed different trends. The inventory of bonded areas increased, and the futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly. [11] - **Outlook**: In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate due to the combination of supply and demand factors and geopolitical influences. [11] LPG Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of LPG futures contracts decreased, and the basis increased significantly. The LPG refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream main refinery operating rate remained unchanged, the sample enterprise weekly production - sales rate decreased slightly, the downstream PDH operating rate decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates remained stable. [13] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene upstream raw materials and downstream products increased. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of different links in the industrial chain showed different trends. [16] - **Outlook**: For pure benzene, pay attention to the risk of price drops after reaching a high, and roll low - buying. For styrene, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and also pay attention to the risk of price drops after reaching a high and roll low - buying. [16] Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products increased. The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the expected arrival volume decreased. The operating rates of different links in the polyester industrial chain increased. [17] - **Outlook**: For PX, it is expected to be strong in the short term. For PTA, its absolute price follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, it is expected to have a slight destocking in March. For short - fiber, it mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply will increase in March, and the processing fee may decline. [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were boosted by rising crude oil futures, breaking through the 4,200 ringgit resistance and expected to oscillate between 4,200 - 4,300 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures also maintained a strong trend, with short - term expectations of oscillating between 9,000 - 9,200 yuan [1]. - CBOT soybean oil has risen for two and a half months and may experience a stagflation correction. In China, the end of pre - school procurement and the traditional off - season have dragged down the market, and the basis may decline if soybean oil prices continue to rise [1]. - Rapeseed oil was driven up by the rebound of US crude oil and the rise of BMD palm oil but then adjusted due to news. The spot basis weakened due to low market purchasing意愿 [1]. 2. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to the conflict in the Middle East and a stronger US dollar. In China, the supply is supported by the expected reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the decline in commercial inventory. However, the lack of new orders from spinning mills and large internal - external price differences limit the upward space. In the long - term, the overall trend is expected to be stronger [2]. 3. Sugar - Globally, the bearish factors have been fully priced in. Czarnikow expects a 6.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production in India reduced. The raw sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly. In China, the short - term bearish factors have been fully priced in, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. 4. Red Dates - After the Spring Festival, the red date market consumption was flat. Futures are expected to oscillate in a low - valuation range, with limited upward space due to hedging and inventory pressure [4]. 5. Apples - The apple market is active, with good - quality apples in short supply. The inventory in cold storage has decreased, and the short - term futures price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and weather changes [6]. 6. Corn - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is tight, the North Port has low inventory, and the North China market has a small increase in supply. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, while feed enterprises mainly have rigid demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8]. 7. Meal - US soybeans are oscillating at a high level. In China, the spot market is loose, and the basis of soybean meal is falling. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 8. Pigs - After the Spring Festival, the supply of pigs has recovered, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is under pressure, and the futures price is grinding at the bottom. The rise depends on the support of secondary fattening [15]. 9. Eggs - The supply of eggs is slowly decreasing, but there is inventory to be digested. The demand is in the off - season. The egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 8,640 yuan, with a 0.12% increase. The futures price of Y2605 remained unchanged at 8,370 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan to 270 yuan, a 3.85% increase [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 12 yuan to 8,978 yuan, a 0.13% decrease. The futures price of P2605 increased by 68 yuan to 9,070 yuan, a 0.76% increase. The basis decreased by 80 yuan to - 92 yuan, a 666.67% decrease [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 14 yuan to 9,968 yuan, a 0.14% decrease. The futures price of OIROS increased by 3 yuan to 9,489 yuan, a 0.03% increase. The basis decreased by 17 yuan to 479 yuan, a 3.43% decrease [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - Soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 2 yuan to 58 yuan, a 6.67% decrease. - Palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) remained unchanged at - 22 yuan. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 11 yuan to 74 yuan, a 12.94% decrease [1]. 2. Cotton - **Futures Market**: - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 45 yuan to 15,250 yuan, a 0.30% increase. The price of cotton 2609 increased by 65 yuan to 15,320 yuan, a 0.43% increase. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 70 yuan, a 40.00% decrease [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 2 yuan to 16,396 yuan, a 0.01% increase. The CC Index: 3128B increased by 12 yuan to 16,583 yuan, a 0.07% increase [2]. - **Industry Situation**: - Commercial inventory decreased by 578.87 million tons to 0, a 100.0% decrease. Industrial inventory increased by 3.3 million tons to 89.4 million tons, a 3.8% increase. Import volume increased by 5.89 million tons to 17.79 million tons, a 49.5% increase [2]. 3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 22 yuan to 5,330 yuan, a 0.41% increase. The price of sugar 2609 increased by 25 yuan to 5,346 yuan, a 0.47% increase. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 0.24 cents to 13.71 cents per pound, a 1.72% decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: - The price in Nanning increased by 10 yuan to 5,380 yuan, a 0.19% increase. The price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5,215 yuan. The Nanning basis decreased by 12 yuan to 50 yuan, a 19.35% decrease. The Kunming basis decreased by 22 yuan to - 115 yuan, a 23.66% decrease [3]. - **Industry Situation**: - National sugar production decreased by 60.28 million tons to 689 million tons, an 8.05% decrease. National sugar sales decreased by 103.5 million tons to 270 million tons, a 27.71% decrease [3]. 4. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: - The price of red dates 2605 increased by 170 yuan to 8,980 yuan, a 1.93% increase. The price of red dates 2607 increased by 162 yuan to 9,135 yuan, a 1.84% increase. The price of red dates 2609 increased by 155 yuan to 9,290 yuan, a 1.70% increase [4]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Cangzhou's top - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,190 yuan. The price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7,900 yuan. The price of second - grade red dates remained unchanged at 6,900 yuan [4]. 5. Apples - **Futures Market**: - The price of apple 2605 increased by 304 yuan to 10,753 yuan, a 2.91% increase. The price of apple 2610 decreased by 58 yuan to 8,690 yuan, a 0.66% decrease. The 5 - 10 spread increased by 362 yuan to 2,063 yuan, a 21.28% increase [6]. - **Spot Market**: - The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 2 vehicles to 20 vehicles, a 9.09% decrease. The arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 1 vehicle to 11 vehicles, an 8.33% decrease. The arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 1 vehicle to 14 vehicles, a 6.67% decrease [6]. - **Inventory**: - The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 25.39 million tons to 527.53 million tons, a 4.59% decrease [6]. 6. Corn - **Corn**: - The price of corn 2605 increased by 5 yuan to 2,384 yuan, a 0.21% increase. The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 5 yuan to 2,405 yuan, a 0.21% increase. The basis remained unchanged at 21 yuan [8]. - **Corn Starch**: - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 4 yuan to 2,696 yuan, a 0.15% increase. The average price of corn starch increased by 18 yuan to 2,841 yuan, a 0.64% increase [8]. 7. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: - The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 3,040 yuan, a 0.65% decrease. The futures price of M2605 increased by 14 yuan to 2,843 yuan, a 0.49% increase. The basis decreased by 34 yuan to 197 yuan, a 14.72% decrease [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2,510 yuan, a 0.80% increase. The futures price of RM2605 increased by 15 yuan to 2,318 yuan, a 0.65% increase. The basis increased by 5 yuan to 192 yuan, a 2.67% increase [11]. 8. Pigs - **Futures Market**: - The price of pig 2605 increased by 10 yuan to 11,140 yuan, a 0.09% increase. The price of pig 2603 increased by 75 yuan to 10,180 yuan, a 0.74% increase. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 65 yuan to - 960 yuan, a 6.34% increase [15]. - **Spot Market**: - The price in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 10,500 yuan. The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 10,700 yuan. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan [15]. 9. Eggs - **Futures Market**: - The price of egg 04 contract increased by 37 yuan to 3,246 yuan per 500 kg, a 1.15% increase. The price of egg 05 contract increased by 31 yuan to 3,396 yuan per 500 kg, a 0.92% increase [17]. - **Spot Market**: - The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.02 yuan to 2.94 yuan per jin, a 0.73% decrease. The basis decreased by 209 yuan to - 458 yuan per 500 kg, an 83.76% decrease [17]. - **Industry Situation**: - The egg - chick price increased by 0.10 yuan to 3.30 yuan per chick, a 3.12% increase. The culled - hen price remained unchanged at 4.44 yuan per jin. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.26 to 2.63, a 9.00% decrease [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The intensification of the turmoil in the Middle East has led to a surge in risk aversion, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The conflict between the US and Iran has caused supply disruptions in energy and chemical products, and the prices of precious metals have strengthened due to risk aversion. [1] - The situation in the Middle East may become more chaotic, turning a "black swan" event into a "grey rhino" event, which will have a far - reaching impact on the global economy and put pressure on global economic growth. [2] - Depending on the development of the US - Iran conflict, there are three scenarios: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic. The neutral and pessimistic scenarios may provide medium - to long - term support for precious metal prices. [5][6][7] - In terms of investment strategies, gold long positions should be held with a long - term view, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold to protect the long positions. For silver, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average and the resistance of $100, and out - of - the money call options can be bought instead of futures long positions. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Due to the breakdown of nuclear negotiations, the US launched a military strike against Iran and killed several important leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliated and closed the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the international gold price approached the $5400 mark, and the Shanghai gold main contract rose by more than 4%. The international silver price rose by 3% in the morning and then narrowed, while the Shanghai silver main contract rose by more than 8%. [1] Driving Analysis 1: Potential for Greater Chaos in the Middle East - After the death of Khamenei, Iran established a temporary leadership committee on March 1. The conservative forces led by Larijani still control the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and are determined to counterattack. If the conflict drags on, it may turn from a "black swan" to a "grey rhino" event, affecting the US government's support rate and fiscal deficit, and causing chaos in the Middle East and global economic pressure. [2] Driving Analysis 2: Scenario Analysis of the US - Iran Conflict - **Optimistic Scenario**: If the US and Iran reach a strategic balance within one month, stop large - scale attacks, and resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea under the mediation of the United Nations and regional countries, the oil price will fall, and the risk - aversion demand will gradually weaken. [5] - **Neutral Scenario**: The US and Iran will form a low - intensity confrontation and long - term game. The US will maintain sanctions, and Iran will counter moderately. The Strait of Hormuz will be open under limited conditions, and the market will gradually incorporate the impact. [6] - **Pessimistic Scenario**: If the conflict escalates and spreads to a full - scale confrontation, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping will be blocked, leading to a global energy crisis and economic turmoil. [6] Impact on Precious Metals - The key to the US - Iran conflict lies in both sides finding the least - cost way to maximize benefits. The neutral and pessimistic scenarios may provide medium - to long - term support for precious metal prices. The scale of this conflict is larger than the previous two attacks, and the impact may be greater. In the short term, market fluctuations may be volatile. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts (especially the US - Iran conflict), supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and macro - economic data to provide insights and trading suggestions for each market [2][6][15]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the internal - external positive spread has widened. The short - term market is cautious due to macro - situation uncertainties, but the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term operating range of the main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [2][23]. - **Styrene**: Driven by geopolitical factors and cost, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream开工 and the dynamics of Iranian styrene plants. Strategies include being cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and narrowing the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [3][105]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to silicon ferrosilicon exports. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price is firm, and the price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to the change in grain - selling enthusiasm with rising temperatures and the release of policy grain sources [5][74]. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Geopolitical risks are complex and changeable, and the stock index is slowly building a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The US economy has slightly improved. Officials' statements have stabilized oil prices and supported interest rate cuts. The US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Gold may fluctuate around historical highs, and silver and platinum - palladium have their own characteristics in terms of supply - demand and price trends [10][13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, and the market risk preference is under pressure. In the long term, the copper price is still optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot basis has recovered, and the futures price is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The supply crisis in the Middle East has spread, and the internal - external positive spread has widened. The short - term is cautious, and the long - term is bullish. It is recommended to go long on pull - backs [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures and spot prices have risen together, and the short - term market trading is cold. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to go long on pull - backs [24][27]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory accumulation trend continues, and the zinc price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [28][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the tin price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long after the sentiment stabilizes [31][34]. - **Nickel**: The war situation continues, and the macro - uncertainty increases. The price fluctuates strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [34][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is uncertainty in the policy window, and there is a game between raw materials and demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is uncertainty in the macro and supply sides, and the futures price adjusts widely. It is not recommended to open new long positions, and use options to protect existing long positions [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price fluctuates downward. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to environmental inspections in Xinjiang, the futures price has risen. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at around 8,200 yuan/ton and pay attention to position reduction or liquidation [48][49]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates, waiting for the verification of post - holiday demand. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on steel exports and the "Two Sessions" on demand expectations [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance intensifies, and the supply pressure still exists. The short - term price may fluctuate widely, and the reference range is 730 - 770 [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is weak, and the power coal price has peaked and fallen. It is recommended to view it with a shock perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,200 [55][57]. - **Coke**: The steel mills have proposed to lower the coke price, and the futures price fluctuates with coking coal. It is recommended to view it with a shock perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [58][59]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and pay attention to silicon ferrosilicon exports. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [60][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore price continues to rise. Pay attention to the resumption of manganese silicon production. It is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic and foreign markets are in a high - level shock, and the domestic soybean meal basis has fallen. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [67][69]. - **Hogs**: The hog slaughter pressure is large. Pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening. The short - term price may be weak, and the upward space is limited [70][71]. - **Corn**: The spot price is firm, and the price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to the change in grain - selling enthusiasm with rising temperatures and the release of policy grain sources [72][74]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic spot price is stable and weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [75]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate, and the adjustment range of the futures price may be limited. Pay attention to downstream orders and weather conditions [77]. - **Eggs**: The market sales are slow, and the egg price is mainly falling. The short - term price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [80][81]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats show a stagnant and adjusted trend. Different oils have different supply - demand and price trends, and pay attention to relevant factors such as production, inventory, and demand [82][86]. - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the futures price is under pressure. It is recommended to operate in a light - position band and control risks [88][89]. - **Apples**: The price of high - quality apples is firm, and the futures price is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory reduction, spot price, and delivery goods [90][91]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical conflict continues. Pay close attention to the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the oil price may rise; if it resumes passage, the oil price may fall. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [92][93]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the oil price is strong. The short - term PX trend is strong. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner [94][95]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, but the cost side is strong. The short - term PTA is driven by the cost. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw materials. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and pay attention to the low - level expansion of the processing fee [98]. - **Bottle Chips**: The raw materials are expected to be strong in the short term, and the supply of bottle chips is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy, pay attention to the high - level narrowing of the processing fee, and buy call options at low prices [99][100]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand in March is expected to improve, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on the EG5 - 9 spread at low prices [101]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost side drives the pure benzene to be strong. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner, and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [102][103]. - **Styrene**: Driven by geopolitical factors and cost, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream开工 and the dynamics of Iranian styrene plants. Strategies include being cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and narrowing the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market trading is weak. The short - term market is strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. Pay attention to the sustainability of cost support. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107][108]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical risk still exists, and the methanol price fluctuates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the caustic soda price may be adjusted weakly. Pay attention to downstream delivery volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [109][110]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances bring cost concerns, and the PVC price fluctuates emotionally. The supply - demand is deadlocked, and the price may be pushed up passively [111][112]. - **Urea**: The demand side improves marginally, and the urea price runs firmly. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions at low prices and follow the crude - oil - related varieties with a low - long idea [113][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro - situation boosts sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [115][117]. - **Glass**: The downstream resumption of work is less than expected. Pay attention to macro - policies and inventory changes. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [115][119]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas geopolitical situation affects tire demand, and the rubber price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [119][122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict will drive the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and the short - term view is a wide - range shock [123][124][125]. Container Shipping to Europe - The MSK has opened a position at 2,200 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase compared to the previous period). Pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and run in an enlarged range. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [125][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the holiday, A - shares had a positive start, driven by the rise of overseas equity assets during the long - holiday and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, but geopolitical risks may cause market fluctuations [3] - Gold is likely to rise above the 20 - day moving average, while silver may rise due to geopolitical risks but faces resistance at $100. Platinum and palladium are supported by supply expectations [3] - Steel prices are weak due to export obstacles, and iron ore is affected by macro - factors and supply pressure. Coal prices show different trends, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand and geopolitics [3] - New energy products are affected by geopolitical conflicts, with some showing strong trends and others facing downward pressure [3] - Energy and chemical products are influenced by geopolitical factors, supply - demand, and cost. Some products are recommended to hold long positions, while others suggest short - term operations or hedging [3] - Agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, international events, and market sentiment. Different products have different trends and trading suggestions [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - Alumina (AO2605): Expected to be weakly volatile [3] - Methanol (MA2605): Expected to be strongly volatile [3] - Silicon Iron (SF605): Expected to be strongly volatile [3] - Corn (C2605): Expected to be strongly volatile [3] 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: After the holiday, A - shares opened higher, but due to approaching the Two Sessions and potential geopolitical risks, it is recommended to wait and see, and the bull - spread strategy can be closed for profit [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can hold long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options for protection. Silver may rise but faces resistance, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Platinum and palladium can sell out - of - the - money put options [3] 3.2.2 Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: Steel prices are weak, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions at certain price levels. Iron ore is in a range - bound state. Coal prices show different trends, and it is recommended to view them as volatile within certain intervals. Silicon and manganese alloys need to pay attention to supply and demand and export situations, and it is recommended to wait and see or use spread strategies [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper has a short - term supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation. Aluminum and its alloys are affected by macro - factors and supply - demand, and different trading suggestions are given. Other non - ferrous metals such as zinc, tin, and nickel also have corresponding trends and trading recommendations [3] 3.2.3 New Energy - New energy products such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and others are affected by geopolitical conflicts. Some products suggest long - position reduction or option protection [3] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Energy products such as crude oil need to pay attention to geopolitical situations, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously or wait and see. Chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and geopolitics, and different trading suggestions are provided, including long - position reduction, spread trading, and option trading [3] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are affected by factors such as supply - demand, international events, and market sentiment. Different products have different trends and trading suggestions, such as range - bound operation, long - position reduction, and option trading [3]