1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Recent oil price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical events in the Middle East and the cold wave in the United States. With geopolitical premiums declining and significant inventory builds in crude oil and refined products, oil prices are under pressure. However, the cold wave in the US has boosted overseas natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil, supporting oil prices. Currently, crude oil's own driving forces are limited, and short - term oil prices are still dominated by news. Brent crude should be watched for resistance above $66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices remained basically flat, with a dull market sentiment and mainly downstream rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, and the comprehensive output slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weekly shipment volume and shipment rate increased month - on - month, with little change in the float glass production line, and the weekly output and industry average capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. The photovoltaic glass had no new kiln shutdowns, and the in - production capacity and capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. Affected by the expected export - grabbing policy, the photovoltaic glass price remained stable, and the inventory continued to decline. Although the in - plant inventory of soda ash decreased overall and the macro sentiment improved recently, in the context of generally weak fundamentals, the short - term soda ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices showed regional differentiation, with the overall spot price center rising slightly month - on - month. The profits of glass made from different fuels changed little overall, with the profit of petroleum coke - made glass turning negative. The spot market still mainly had rigid - demand transactions. On the supply side, the daily melting volume continued to increase slightly month - on - month, while the start - up rate and industry average capacity utilization rate remained basically flat. On the demand side, the performance of deep - processing orders was differentiated, and the start - up rate of Low - e glass was still at a relatively weak level. Real estate - related data showed that the industry was still in the adjustment stage. The shipment situation of glass enterprises varied, and the inventory also fluctuated. The overall in - plant inventory remained at a high level. As the Spring Festival approached and the consumption off - season arrived, downstream demand gradually decreased, and manufacturers were more willing to actively reduce inventory. It is expected that the rebound space of the futures price is limited, and the short - term trend will remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene continued to improve slightly, with a slight decrease in supply and a continued increase in the downstream comprehensive load. The port inventory decreased, but the absolute level of port inventory remained high, and its own driving force was still limited. Recently, styrene was driven by exports, and its port inventory decreased significantly. Coupled with news of unexpected shutdowns of domestic and foreign plants, the styrene trend was strong, driving up the absolute price of pure benzene. Recently, the profit of styrene has expanded significantly, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. However, styrene's downstream has cut production due to increased losses, and there are expectations of restarting two maintenance plants next week. It is expected that the room for further expansion of the price difference is limited, and there is an expectation of compression. Strategically, the unilateral fluctuation is large, so it is advisable to wait and see; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - **Styrene**: Driven by previous exports, the port inventory of styrene continued to decline, and the circulating supply was limited. The short - term supply - demand situation was temporarily tight. Coupled with the shutdown of the Xuyang styrene plant and the reduction of the load of the Tianjin Bohua plant during the week, the styrene futures price continued to rise. However, currently, the styrene industry has good profits, and the overall start - up is stable, with active forward over - sales. The downstream industry's losses have expanded, and some plants have shut down, actively selling styrene raw materials and downstream product inventories. Overall, the short - term supply - demand of styrene is temporarily tight. Coupled with the overall strength of the chemical sector driven by the inflow of off - industry funds, the short - term increase in styrene is significant. However, there are no new positive factors in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is intensifying, and there are expectations of restarting the Sinopec Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua plants next week. The short - term capital game has intensified, and caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see unilaterally; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and shutdown, with a shrinking total supply and rising overseas raw material prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively high proportion of European exports have sufficient recent foreign trade orders, and their production has maintained a relatively high - level. Currently, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, but domestic sales have been slow, mostly maintaining rigid - demand sales, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high. In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory has continued the inventory accumulation trend. In summary, in the short term, driven by the strength of the synthetic rubber market, the natural rubber market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the weak demand, it is expected that there is still significant upward pressure, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins were jointly driven by the rotation of funds into the chemical sector, geopolitical tensions, and the possible impact of the North American cold wave on supply, and their prices strengthened rapidly at the end of the week. From a static fundamental perspective, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory was destocked. The upstream inventory was low, and the price - holding intention was strong, but agents sold at a loss, the basis weakened significantly, and hedgers had no risk - free positions. Dynamically, for PP, due to many maintenance plans, the supply pressure has been relieved. Currently, the PDH profit is still low, and the production reduction drive is strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal plant maintenance. For PE, the maintenance has decreased, and the import is expected to be under pressure. Some full - density plants have switched to LLD production, increasing the pressure on standard products, and the demand has entered the off - season, with the downstream start - up rate weakening. In terms of sentiment, the short - covering demand has been released, and the overall trading volume this week was weaker than last week [9]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chips - **PX**: With high - profit margins, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production, and currently, the PX load in Asia and China is at a historical high. In January, PX supply remained high. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA in the first quarter has weakened compared to expectations. It is expected that PX's own driving force will be limited before the Spring Festival. However, as PX trading switches to the March - April period, supported by tight supply - demand in the second quarter, the low - price support for PX is relatively strong. Last week, the cold wave in the US boosted overseas natural gas prices, which had a positive impact on some domestic chemical products (such as styrene, ethylene glycol, and some products with natural gas as raw material). At the same time, off - industry funds flowed into the chemical sector, driving up PX in the short term. However, the PX high point did not reach the mid - December high, and the physical PX market was slow to follow the increase. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern of PX, caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of funds. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton for PX, reduce long positions, and conduct mid - term rolling long - biased operations [11]. - **PTA**: Recently, there have been few changes in PTA plants. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded, the PTA supply - demand has gradually weakened, and the spot basis has weakened. Recently, driven by the large - scale inflow of funds into the chemical sector and the expectation of improved PTA supply - demand in the second quarter, the PTA futures price has increased significantly, and the PTA futures processing margin has expanded significantly. However, due to the large inventory build - up pressure in February in advance, PTA's own driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. Caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance above 5,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce long positions; conduct long - spread operations on the TA5 - 9 spread at low levels [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near - term, ethylene glycol is still facing significant inventory build - up pressure. Since there are few domestic ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans from January to February, and with the commissioning of new plants such as Ningxia Changyi and BASF, the domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level. At the same time, the polyester plant production cut - back and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand have weakened the demand support for ethylene glycol. From the information of arrived and forecasted shipping schedules, the reduction rate of ethylene glycol imports is slow, and the inventory build - up amplitude from January to February is expected to be high. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve in the second quarter, and inventory is expected to be reduced, mainly due to the shutdown of multiple large - scale domestic ethylene glycol plants and the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants, which will significantly reduce the supply expectation. Strategically, conduct long - spread operations on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels; sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high levels [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and the number of yarn mills reducing or stopping production will increase around the end of the month. Recently, the sharp increase in the cost side has driven up the short - fiber price, and some downstream enterprises have followed up with replenishment. However, as the demand side weakens, the downstream is mostly waiting and seeing after the short - fiber price increase. The market will enter a digestion stage later. Overall, the absolute price driving force of short - fiber before the festival is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PF03 is the same as that of PTA; the PF futures processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short the spread when it is high [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Recently, the implementation of maintenance plans for multiple polyester bottle - chip plants has been carried out one after another. In particular, a 1.2 - million - ton - per - year polyester bottle - chip plant in Jiangyin has been shut down since mid - January and will be under maintenance until March. There are still maintenance plans at the end of January. The domestic supply is expected to decrease significantly, and recently, the plants have continued to reduce inventory, supporting the processing margin. At the same time, the demand will weaken seasonally. With both supply and demand decreasing, it is expected that the absolute price and processing margin of bottle chips from January to February will still follow the cost - side fluctuations. Strategically, pay attention to the support around 6,200 yuan/ton for PR2603; the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton; sell out - of - the - money put options PR2603 - P - 6200 at high levels [11]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inland plant inventory has decreased, but the high production volume restricts the rebound space, and the demand is expected to decline in the future. Although the port inventory has slightly decreased, the MTO demand is weak (many plants are under maintenance or have reduced loads), and the inventory reduction amplitude of the 05 contract has significantly weakened, suppressing the price rebound height. Currently, there are two key variables in the market: one is the reduction of imported methanol arrivals under the background of low methanol production in Iran. As of the latest data, the shipment volume from Iran is 350,000 tons; the other is the risk premium brought by geopolitical factors [13][14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the prices of caustic soda in the mainstream regions continued to decline. The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. Low - price transactions frequently occurred during the week, impacting the market. The unloading of products by the main downstream enterprises was still difficult, and the order transactions were light. From the supply side, there were sporadic short - term shutdowns of chlor - alkali plants last week, but some chlor - alkali plants that had previously reduced loads resumed production, increasing the operating load rate. High - level operation combined with difficult sales led to continued inventory accumulation of caustic soda last week. On the demand side, the unloading situation of the two main downstream industries was poor. Under the strong chlorine situation, enterprises had no incentive to reduce production, and the problem of product backlogs at downstream enterprises continued. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the caustic soda price is under pressure in the short term and is still expected to decline. This week, the East China region faces monthly order contracts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. Coupled with the weak price transmission in the main regions, it is expected that the caustic soda market will continue to be weak [15]. - **PVC**: Last week, the domestic PVC price fluctuated after an increase, supported by positive economic expectations and bullish long - term expectations for commodities. The short - term increase in commodity prices in the market slightly pushed up the spot price. From the supply side, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased last week, and some enterprises had unplanned production cuts. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. The downstream production demand gradually weakened before the Spring Festival, and the foreign trade exports continued to be good but decreased in volume month - on - month. The inventory accumulation pressure before the festival in the industry continued. Currently, the macro - economic expectations are relatively strong, and combined with the strong PVC exports, the PVC price trend is relatively firm. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday, the industry inventory is accumulating rapidly, and combined with the weak support from raw material calcium carbide, the expected significant increase in price is limited. In the short term, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern due to the cost support at the bottom and the supply - demand pressure at the top. It is expected that the PVC operating rate will continue to decline this week. Currently, some downstream enterprises are having pre - festival promotions, and the operating rate has increased. The export is expected to remain strong. However, considering that some downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable [15]. Urea - On January 23, the urea futures price fluctuated and closed higher, and the spot price increased slightly overall. Some regions raised their ex - factory quotes, but the downstream acceptance of the price was limited, and there were still some orders at low prices. New order transactions were relatively cautious. There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week. As the previously shut - down plants gradually resume production, the daily urea output fluctuates around the high level of 200,000 tons, and the short - term supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there is still some agricultural demand in the Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong regions. The compound fertilizer industry is expected to reduce its operating rate due to the decrease in finished product sales volume. The operating rate of the board industry gradually decreases in the twelfth lunar month, and the overall industrial demand for urea has weakened. Urea inventory continued to decline this week, and the inventory reduction rhythm was faster than in previous years. This week, urea enterprises have successively launched the Spring Festival order - receiving plan, and it is expected that the inventory will be further reduced. Overall, the urea price is still restricted by the weak supply - demand situation, and the market transactions need to increase. However, the agricultural demand in some regions and the inventory reduction expectation have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. The main urea contract should be watched in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream demand and the inventory reduction rhythm [16]. LPG - No specific views on the LPG market trend and investment strategies are provided in the LPG report. It only presents price, inventory, and operating rate data [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On January 23, Brent crude was at $64.06 per barrel, down $1.82 or 2.84% from January 22; WTI was at $59.36 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.88

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints 1. Index Futures Spread - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile data of the current - futures spreads and inter - period spreads of various index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios. [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - It presents the latest values, changes, and historical percentile data of the basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures including TS, TF, T, and TL. [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - The short - term precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold is recommended to hold long positions and sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver has strong short - term trends but large market volatility, and risk control should be emphasized. Platinum and palladium prices are rising due to macro - financial factors and supply shortages, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money options on platinum and palladium futures to earn volatility reduction benefits. [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - The settlement price indices and Shanghai export container freight rates of the container shipping industry have generally declined. The futures prices of some contracts have small fluctuations, and the basis of the main contract has a slight decrease. The global container shipping capacity supply remains stable, and some foreign trade - related indicators and overseas economic data have different degrees of change. [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Spread - **Current - Futures Spreads**: For example, the IF current - futures spread is 6.70 with a historical 1 - year percentile of 97.10%. The IH current - futures spread is 5.61, down 2.47 from the previous day, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 85.70%. [1] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Such as the IF next - month - current - month spread is 5.20 with a historical percentile of 99.10%. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.8267, up 0.0511, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 99.50%. [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The TS basis is 1.4225, up 0.0013 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 17.60%. [2] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The TS current - season - next - season spread is - 0.0320, up 0.0040, with a historical percentile of 18.40%. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The TS - TF spread is - 3.4620, down 0.0350, with a historical percentile of 10.60%. [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2604 contract closed at 1115.64 yuan/gram on January 23, up 2.58% from the previous day. [7] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4983.10 dollars/ounce on January 23, up 0.91% from the previous day. [7] - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price is 4981.31 dollars/ounce, up 0.87% from the previous day. [7] - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 5.29, down 1.63 from the previous day, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 46.10%. [7] - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 48.26, down 5.98% from the previous day. [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.24%, down 0.5% from the previous day. [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 102009, unchanged from the previous day. [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on January 19 is 1954.19, down 0.11% from the previous period. [8] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI comprehensive index on January 23 is 1457.86, down 7.39% from the previous period. [8] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1717.7 points on January 23, up 0.59% from the previous day. The basis of the main contract is 815.9, down 0.07% from the previous day. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on January 25 is 3372.94 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day. The port on - time rate in Shanghai in December is 41.81, up 4.53% from the previous month. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23rd, due to the improvement in ethylene glycol supply - demand expectations and a large inflow of funds into the chemical sector, the ethylene glycol futures main contract EG2605 hit the daily limit, rising 5.99% [1] - The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure, but in the second quarter, the supply - demand is expected to improve and enter the de - stocking channel [6] - Short - term ethylene glycol still has an upward expectation. It is not recommended to short. Long - position traders can buy call options or sell out - of - the - money put options (strike price not higher than 3800). Also, pay attention to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Condition - On January 23rd, the ethylene glycol futures main contract EG2605 hit the daily limit, with a 5.99% increase, driven by improved supply - demand expectations and capital inflow into the chemical sector [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Overseas Supply - Since January, multiple overseas ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance. Two plants of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year were shut down for maintenance in early January. A 450,000 - ton/year plant in Saudi Arabia has been shut down and is expected to restart from late February to early March. Other plants with capacities of 450,000 tons, 380,000 tons, and 700,000 tons in Saudi Arabia are also shut down. The import volume in February is expected to drop to around 600,000 tons, and port inventory build - up will be limited [2] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - According to CCF statistics, multiple domestic large - scale ethylene glycol plants will be shut down for maintenance or switch production in the second quarter. For example, a 900,000 - ton/year plant in Lianyungang plans to shut down and switch production around mid - February, the 1,000,000 - ton/year plant of Shenghong will remain shut down until the third and fourth quarters of 2026, and the 1,800,000 - ton/year plant of Yulin Chemical will replace hydrogenation catalysts in March 2026 and shut down the whole plant for one month in the first half of the year. With the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants in the second quarter, the supply - demand balance can be effectively improved [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term (January - February), ethylene glycol still faces significant inventory build - up pressure due to limited domestic plant maintenance, new plant production, weak downstream demand, and slow import contraction [6] - In the long term (second quarter), the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve and enter the de - stocking channel due to domestic plant shutdowns and coal - based plant spring maintenance [6] - Operational suggestions: Do not short in the short term. Long - position traders can buy call options or sell out - of - the - money put options (strike price not higher than 3800). Also, pay attention to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experiences a decline after continuous volume increase, with large and small-cap stocks diverging, and the market is expected to enter a volatile trend. The bond market lacks a trading theme, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate may face downward resistance around 1.8% - 1.82%. Gold prices are supported by geopolitical events and remain strongly volatile. Most commodity futures have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding market trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The A-share market has large trading differences after a continuous volume increase, trading volume begins to shrink, market sentiment cools down, and the market is expected to enter a volatile trend. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market has a marginal convergence, and the central bank increases MLF issuance. The bond market lacks a trading theme, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate may face downward resistance around 1.8% - 1.82%. It is recommended to use range - bound trading for unilateral strategies and not to chase high prices. For spot - futures strategies, pay attention to positive arbitrage and widening basis strategies [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices remain strongly volatile but with increased fluctuations. After the correction, long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and profits can be locked at high levels. It is recommended to buy on dips, and platinum can be bought on dips when it retraces to the 20 - day moving average [2] 3.4 Ferrous Metals - Steel has weak supply and demand, and steel prices maintain a volatile trend. Iron ore supply faces the off - season and port inventories continue to accumulate. Coking coal prices in Shanxi rise more than fall, while Mongolian coal prices fall from highs. Coke prices are proposed to be raised by mainstream coke enterprises, but port trading prices fall. Silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have improved supply - demand margins. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as range - bound trading, shorting at highs, and arbitrage [2] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper's CL premium narrows, and inventories continue to accumulate. Alumina rebounds slightly due to production cut news. Aluminum is volatile, and there is a risk of an emotional correction in the short term. Zinc's downstream procurement recovers, and the spot premium stabilizes. Tin has a wide - range intraday volatility. Nickel has support from nickel ore quota disturbances. Stainless steel is strongly volatile. Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are strongly volatile. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as waiting for adjustments to enter long positions, range - bound trading, and arbitrage [2] 3.6 New Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate has a resurgence of supply - side disturbance expectations and is strongly trending. PX has a short - term high - level volatility. PTA follows raw material fluctuations. Short - fiber and bottle - chip follow raw material trends. Ethanol rebounds. Benzene and styrene have limited upward space due to high inventories. LLDPE has good upstream orders. PP has weak supply and demand and is weakly volatile. Methanol prices are strong but with average trading. Caustic soda rebounds from oversold levels. PVC may enter wide - range volatility. Urea has a weak supply - demand pattern. Soda ash is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. Glass is weak in the off - season. Natural rubber prices rise, and synthetic rubber rebounds strongly. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as range - bound trading, shorting at highs, and taking profits on long positions [2] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Soybean meal has strong bottom support. Pork has increased supply pressure. Corn has both support and pressure and is in a high - level volatile trend. Palm oil may try to break through 8900. Sugar has a weak trading situation. Cotton can be bought on dips. Eggs are in a volatile range. Apples rebound due to Spring Festival demand. Orange juice futures are weakly volatile. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as range - bound trading, participating in the rebound lightly, and selling long - term call options [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products, offering insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for different products [2][7][71]. - It suggests different trading strategies for each product based on their specific market conditions, such as short - term and long - term trading approaches, and risk management suggestions [2][7][71]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Zinc**: After the zinc price declined, the premium stabilized, and downstream procurement increased. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the supply pressure may be relieved by imported ore. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][34]. - **Methanol**: The sentiment improved, and the price strengthened, but the overall transaction volume was average. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is soft, which restricts the price increase [3][106]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi increased more than it decreased, while the Mongolian coal price declined from its high. The market has over - anticipated the price increase. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the market is expected to be loose after the festival, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [4][61]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose significantly. The domestic palm oil futures are expected to continue to strengthen and may target the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [5][86]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the safe - haven sentiment and boost the gold price. The long - term upward space of the gold price is supported by the early allocation of funds due to trade frictions and geopolitical risks [6][15]. Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market showed a differentiated trend. The large - cap and small - cap stocks diverged, and the sector rotation accelerated. The trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, and the northbound capital had a certain trading volume [7][9]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Overseas, Trump's statement on Greenland and the tariff issue has an impact on the market [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The A - share market is expected to enter a volatile trend. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, and reduce long positions [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally increased [10]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank increased the MLF investment, showing its care for the funding situation. The short - term funding situation is slightly tightened, but the long - term loose pattern is expected to remain unchanged [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market lacks a trading theme, and the 10 - year treasury bond rate may face downward resistance. It is recommended to operate within a range and pay attention to positive arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [11]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US economic data shows certain resilience, but geopolitical issues have affected the confidence of European long - term capital in US dollar assets. The prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have reached new highs [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The long - term upward space of the gold price is supported by trade frictions and geopolitical risks. The price of silver is expected to be strong, and platinum and palladium are expected to follow the gold price and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The CL premium narrowed, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The copper price is expected to return to fundamental pricing in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait for adjustment before entering long positions [16][21]. - **Alumina**: The market rebounded slightly due to the news of production cuts, but the supply is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line [21][23]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The macro and policy expectations are strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short - term [23][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, with support from the shortage of domestic zinc ore and pressure from imported ore supply and demand feedback [30][34]. - **Tin**: The short - term price is affected by market sentiment and fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to be cautious. In the long - term, a low - buying strategy is recommended [34][37]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, mainly driven by macro factors and Indonesian nickel ore quota disturbances [37][39]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material price increase and the expectation of production cuts support the price, but the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [40][42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand is expected to be optimistic. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [43][46]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price fluctuated strongly. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand may be improved by export demand. It is recommended to wait and see [47][49]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand are expected to decline in January and February. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to production cuts [49][52]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to take profits on the long - steel - to - iron - ore ratio and hold the long - hot - rolled - to - rebar spread [53][55]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short at around 800 [56][57]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to be bearish in the short - term, with a trading range of 1000 - 1200 [58][61]. - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, but the market is expected to be loose after the festival. The price is expected to be bearish in the short - term, with a trading range of 1600 - 1800 [62][64]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are marginally improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with a trading range of 5300 - 5800 [65][67]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore supports the cost, and the supply and demand are improved. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with a trading range of 5600 - 6000 [68][70]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean price is affected by macro factors and South American weather. The domestic supply is loose, but the decline space of soybean meal is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate [71][73]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply pressure increases, and the market is in a game between supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [74][75]. - **Corn**: The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking and market sentiment, but the upward space is limited by policy supply. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling mentality and policy supply [76][78]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is stable, and the domestic cotton price rebounds slightly. The short - term supply pressure is relieved, and the price is expected to be stable [80]. - **Eggs**: The egg price continues to strengthen, and the market sales are smooth. The near - month futures price is expected to be strong and fluctuate [83]. - **Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rise, and the domestic palm oil futures are expected to strengthen. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by different factors, and the price trends are different [84][87]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weak and volatile. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [88][89]. - **Apples**: The price is supported by low inventory and high - quality fruit shortage in the short - term, but the long - term consumption may be affected by high prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - holiday inventory [90]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and be supported at a low level in the second quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7500 pressure and use a rolling low - buying strategy [92]. - **PTA**: The supply and demand are weakening, and the price is expected to follow the raw material. It is recommended to reduce long positions and pay attention to the 5300 pressure [93][94]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material. It is recommended to short the processing margin when it is high [95][96]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to decline, and the factory is de - stocking. The price and processing margin are expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to trade in the same way as PTA and pay attention to the processing margin range [97][98]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the import reduction is slow. The near - month inventory is expected to accumulate. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4000 pressure [99][100]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand are improving marginally, but the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the short - EB - BZ spread opportunity [101]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply and demand are tight, but the downstream negative feedback is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the short - EB - BZ spread opportunity [102][104]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sales have improved, and the supply of LLDPE is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to stop profit on long positions and wait and see [105]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory pressure is relieved. It is recommended to hold the long - PDH - profit position [105][106]. - **Methanol**: The price is strengthening, but the MTO demand is weak, which restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price rebounds, but the supply - demand imbalance remains. The rebound height is expected to be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [108][109]. - **PVC**: The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [110]. - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1740 - 1790 range and downstream demand and inventory changes [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions [113][115]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions [113][116]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply is shrinking, and the raw material price is rising, which supports the rubber price. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the 15500 - 16500 range. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost of BR is supported, and the demand is expected to improve in the first quarter. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upward momentum may weaken in February. It is not recommended to short BR in the short - term [119][121].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [1] - Author: Cao Jianlan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is firm, with some specifications in Jiangsu region experiencing price increases due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, the log futures have declined with increasing positions, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short - term, the price is expected to have certain support. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the range of 750 - 800 [3] Group 4: Price and Basis Futures Prices - On January 22, the price of Log 2601 was 772.5, down 2.5 (-0.32%) from January 21; Log 2603 was 768.5, up 4.5 (0.59%); Log 2605 was 786.0, up 4.5 (0.58%); Log 2607 was 799.5, up 4.5 (0.57%) [2] Spot Prices - The price of Rizhao Port 3.9A small radiata pine remained at 680.0 on January 22 and 21; 3.9A medium radiata pine at 740; 3.9A large radiata pine at 850. Taicang Port 4A small radiata pine was 700 on January 22, up 10 (1.45%) from January 21; 4A medium radiata pine was 770, up 10 (1.32%); 4A large radiata pine remained at 800. Rizhao Port spruce 11.8 was 1150 on January 22, down 10 (-0.86%) from January 21 [2] Basis - The basis of the main contract on January 22 was -28.5, down 4.5 from January 21 [2] Outer - market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine remained at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter on January 23 and January 16; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 124 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 23 was 6.965, up 0.01 from January 22. The import theoretical cost (calculated at 15% over - size) was 754.54 yuan on January 23, up 0.71 from January 22 [2] Group 5: Supply Monthly Supply - As of December 31, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 (7.82%) from November 30. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 (12.24%) from 49.0 [2] Forecasted Shipments - From January 19 - January 25, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week (0% week - on - week increase), and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, down 19,000 cubic meters (5% week - on - week decrease) [3] Group 6: Inventory and Demand Inventory - As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, down 120,000 cubic meters from last week (-4.46%) [2][3] Demand - As of January 16, the daily average log outbound volume was 61,600 cubic meters, up 4,100 cubic meters from last week (7%) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the world will be in a macro - background of deepening "de - globalization" and the resonance of loose fiscal policies of major economies. Supply - chain vulnerability and demand expansion will lead to a tightening of resource supply - demand relations, and intensify strategic competition for key minerals and energy [1]. - China's economy will be based on the principle of "internal stability and external control" in 2026. Exports will remain a mainstay, investment will play a supporting role, and consumption will focus on equipment updates and service - scenario innovation. The de - dollarization trend and the weakening of the US dollar credit will bring opportunities for international capital inflows into RMB assets, and Sino - US competition will focus on technology and supply - chain security [1]. - In 2026, a macro - hedging portfolio should be constructed under the premise of seeking certainty. Commodity assets will have prominent allocation value, with the order of commodity > equity > bond. Attention should be paid to potential uncertainties such as recessions in Europe and the US, domestic inflation repair, geopolitics, and real - estate risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Cycle Changes: Resonance of "De - globalization" and Loose Fiscal Policies (1) The Wave of De - globalization: From Great - Power Games to the G2 Pattern - International events such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the Trump administration's high - tariff policies have led to the wave of de - globalization, which is essentially the reshaping of the world order [6]. - Traditional capitalist powers like the US and the UK are withdrawing from international alliances, while emerging - market countries led by China are exploring new international cooperation models. A G2 competition pattern between China and the US is gradually taking shape in key technologies and resources [7]. - The wave of de - globalization has increased the vulnerability of the global supply chain, deteriorated the global trade environment, and accelerated the rotation and increased the volatility of global major assets. The credit systems of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have been shaken [9]. (2) Loose Fiscal Resonance: Upward Global Manufacturing and Inventory Cycles - In 2026, the fiscal policies of major overseas economies such as the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to expand further. The US "big and beautiful" bill may increase the fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion in the next decade, and EU countries will increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Japan will implement a trillion - level economic stimulus plan. This will lead to an increase in economic activity demand and drive up the global manufacturing and inventory cycles [15]. (3) Resource Shortage: Tightening Supply - Demand Balance - De - globalization has increased supply - chain vulnerability, and loose fiscal policies will stimulate demand, leading to a tightening of the global industrial supply - demand relationship. Countries will pay more attention to resource competition for national security. The US is seizing resources through trade control and military actions. Core resources such as minerals and energy will see price increases in 2026 [16]. II. The Game between Endogenous Momentum and External Changes (1) Endogenous Economic Transformation: Long - Term Policy Guidance of the 15th Five - Year Plan - In 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China aims to achieve a reasonable GDP growth rate while gradually realizing structural transformation. New - quality productivity sectors such as AI, biomedicine, and new energy will become new pillar industries [17]. - Investment will be the supporting force for achieving economic growth goals, while consumption will be the main growth driver. Exports will remain a mainstay due to factors such as reduced Sino - US trade - dispute volatility, fiscal expansion in developed economies, and the rise of emerging markets. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and new areas will support economic growth, and real - estate's negative impact on the economy is expected to turn neutral [18][19][23]. - In the consumption area, policies will focus on releasing existing demand through subsidies and exploring incremental demand by expanding service - consumption scenarios [27]. (2) External Changes and Game: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities - The weakening of the US dollar credit due to the expiration of the "petro - dollar" agreement and the establishment of a new cross - border settlement mechanism provides an opportunity for RMB assets. International capital will flow back to the Asia - Pacific market and drive up the prices of RMB - denominated assets. China can promote RMB internationalization [30]. - Sino - US relations will remain a key variable in 2026. The two countries have long - term competition and phased balance in technology and resource issues. The competition pattern will not change significantly, and extreme decoupling is unlikely [31]. III. Guidance on Major Asset Allocation: Constructing a Macro - Hedging Portfolio (1) Between "Change and Constancy": Unchanging Competition Relations and Changing Cycle Rotations - The long - term competition exists among all global economies due to limited resources and growing economic demand. China's economic recovery has three main lines: technological independence, price repair, and expansion of domestic demand. The US will try to avoid recession and stagflation, and continue to rely on the stock market and AI to support the economy [33]. (2) 2026: Seeking Certainty and Constructing a Major Asset Portfolio: Commodity > Equity > Bond - In 2026, asset allocation should pursue certainty and balance risks. Attention should be paid to risks such as recessions in Europe and the US, slow domestic inflation repair, intensified de - globalization, and a downward real - estate market [36]. (3) Grasping the Rhythm and Main Lines in the Short, Medium, and Long Terms - Based on economic - cycle theory, in the high - inflation and high - growth stage (2026 - 2027 expected), commodities will be dominant. Different commodity sectors will rotate in the order of risk pricing, expected trading, and real - situation regression [37]. - In 2026, the four quarters will be dominated by different factors: Q1 is dominated by short - term liquidity, driving up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals; Q2 focuses on correcting the mid - term narrative; Q3 verifies the long - term logic; Q4 is for brewing cross - year expectations [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Oils and Fats**: Domestic market is in the final stage of Spring Festival stocking, boosting trading sentiment. However, due to the economic environment and slow sales, the increase in soybean oil prices is limited. Palm oil is facing resistance, and rapeseed oil's 05 contract has significant upward resistance [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly. Although there is short - term supply pressure, the de - stocking rhythm of cotton enterprises has accelerated, and there is support from downstream demand, so the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock, waiting for the northern hemisphere's production forecast difference. Domestic sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock with a weakening trend due to the end of the stocking season and unmet consumption expectations [4]. - **Apples**: Supported by low inventory and low good - fruit rate, the market has seen a slight rebound. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the scale and structure of cold - storage apples [5]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus has shifted to peak - season consumption. The reduction in new supply supports spot prices, but with no obvious positive news on the demand side, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the short term, corn prices will fluctuate strongly due to pre - festival stocking and market sentiment, but the upward space is limited by policy intervention. Corn starch shows a certain upward trend [9]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices have strengthened again, but there is expected to be an increase in supply pressure before the festival. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock [10]. - **Eggs**: The decline in the laying - hen inventory has slowed down, and the market's overall shipping pressure has eased. Near - month futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Meals**: The soybean price is supported but lacks a continuous upward drive. The domestic spot market is loose, but the decline in the soybean meal inventory has started, and the price is expected to fluctuate [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 22, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8600 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8084 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong (24 - degree) was 8970 yuan/ton, up 1.01%; the futures price of P2605 was 8944 yuan/ton, up 1.27%. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu (Grade 3) was 9906 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; the futures price of OI605 was 9002 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Y2605 was 516 yuan/ton; the basis of P2605 was 26 yuan/ton; the basis of OI605 was 964 yuan/ton. The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 370 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 23, the price of cotton 2605 was 14730 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the price of cotton 2609 was 14885 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.30 cents/pound, down 0.08% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15223 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15839 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, imports increased by 49.5%, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth changed [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 23, the price of sugar 2605 was 5158 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5178 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.77 cents/pound, up 0.27% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5310 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price in Kunming was 5160 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, and sales decreased by 37.18% [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 23, the price of apple 2605 was 9489 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the price of apple 2610 was 8292 yuan/ton, up 0.42% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 23, the price of red dates 2605 was 8745 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the price of red dates 2607 was 8840 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9000 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Cangzhou remained unchanged [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On January 23, the price of corn 2603 was 2295 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2350 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 was 2569 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The average price of corn starch was 2737 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 23, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the price of live pigs 2603 was 11600 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in some regions changed, and the slaughter volume increased by 0.28% [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 23, the price of egg 03 contract was 3095 yuan/500KG, up 1.98%; the price of egg 04 contract was 3380 yuan/500KG, up 1.59% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.67 yuan/jin, up 1.71% [13]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2768 yuan/ton, up 1.58% [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2520 yuan/ton, up 7.69%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2250 yuan/ton, up 0.99% [14]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 4100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean - one main contract was 4327 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The conversion price of 72% silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5,648, with a basis of 38 and a basis rate of 0.68% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: The conversion price of 65% silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 5,814, with a basis of 136 and a basis rate of 2.34% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: The market price of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in Changzhou market is 4,570, with a basis of -279 and a basis rate of -9.80% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: The price of HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai is 3,270, with a basis of 146 and a basis rate of 4.67% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: The price of Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3,280, with a basis of -7 and a basis rate of -0.21% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 843, with a basis of 56 and a basis rate of 7.15% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: The conversion price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,713, with a basis of 25 and a basis rate of 1.46% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1,156, with a basis of 25 and a basis rate of 2.17% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: The SMM electrolytic copper average price is 100,070, with a basis of -630 and a basis rate of -0.133% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 23,740, with a basis of -315 and a basis rate of -1.31% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: The SMM alumina index average price is 2,633, with a basis of -84 and a basis rate of -3.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: The market price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong market (converted to 100%) is 1,944, with a basis of -4 and a basis rate of -0.22% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 24,240, with a basis of -160 and a basis rate of -0.66% [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 403,250, with a basis of -5,760 and a basis rate of -1.41% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2603)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 141,700, with a basis of -800 and a basis rate of -0.56% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: The price of 304/2B 2*1240*C stainless steel from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 14,070, with a basis of 215 and a basis rate of 1.55% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000, with a basis of 1,060 and a basis rate of 0.65% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: The SMM industrial silicon average price is 9,250, with a basis of 425 and a basis rate of 4.82% [1]. Precious Metals - **IM2603.CFE**: The spot price is 8,309.3, with a basis of -16.7 and a basis rate of -0.20% [1]. - **Gold (AU2604)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) price is 1,083.9, with a basis of -3.7 and a basis rate of -0.80% [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) price is 23,366, with a basis of 27 and a basis rate of 0.10% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: The ex - factory price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 3,080, with a basis of 312 and a basis rate of 11.27% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,500, with a basis of 416 and a basis rate of 5.15% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: The delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8,880, with a basis of -64 and a basis rate of -0.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: The ex - factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2,440, with a basis of 190 and a basis rate of 8.44% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9,840, with a basis of 838 and a basis rate of 9.31% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,360, with a basis of 65 and a basis rate of 2.83% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2,630, with a basis of 61 and a basis rate of 2.37% [1]. - **Hogs (H2603)**: The ex - farm price of live hogs (outer ternary) in Henan is 13,200, with a basis of 1,600 and a basis rate of 13.79% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: The ex - farm price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 3,620, with a basis of 525 and a basis rate of 16.96% [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: The market price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15,550, with a basis of 820 and a basis rate of 5.57% [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station (origin: Guangxi) is 5,340, with a basis of 182 and a basis rate of 3.53% [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: The delivery theoretical price of apples is 9,400, with a basis of -89 and a basis rate of -0.94% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 8,000, with a basis of -745 and a basis rate of -8.52% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: The spot price at the main Chinese port (CFR, converted to RMB) is 7,279, with a basis of -111 and a basis rate of -1.50% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: The market price (intermediate price) of purified terephthalic acid in East China is 5,210, with a basis of -88 and a basis rate of -1.66% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm, direct - spinning) in East China is 6,540, with a basis of -100 and a basis rate of -1.51% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China is 7,855, with a basis of 161 and a basis rate of 2.09% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,238, with a basis of -22 and a basis rate of -0.97% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of linear low - density polyethylene (film grade) in Shandong is 6,640, with a basis of -174 and a basis rate of -2.55% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of polypropylene (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6,575, with a basis of -49 and a basis rate of -0.74% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4,798, with a basis of 664 and a basis rate of 16.06% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong is 3,080, with a basis of -162 and a basis rate of -5.00% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: The market price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe is 1,150, with a basis of -35 and a basis rate of -3.04% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: The Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) is 15,600, with a basis of -250 and a basis rate of -1.50% [1]. Financial Products - **IF2603.CFE**: The spot price is 4,723.7, with a basis of -4.3 and a basis rate of -0.09% [1]. - **IH2603.CFE**: The spot price is 3,053.1, with a basis of 8.1 and a basis rate of 0.26% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: The spot price is 100.09, with a basis of 0 and a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: The spot price is 99.61, with a basis of -0.01 and a basis rate of -0.01% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: The spot price is 100.46, with a basis of 0.01 and a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: The spot price is 126.61, with a basis of 0.22 and a basis rate of 0.20% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: The market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong is 1,750 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: The market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,735, with a basis of -112 and a basis rate of -2.99% [1]. - **IC2603.CFE**: The spot price is 8,387.6, with a basis of 12.4 and a basis rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Glass (FG605)**: The market price of 5mm float glass in Shahe is 928, with a basis of -129 and a basis rate of -13.90% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China is 12,000, with a basis of -270 and a basis rate of -2.20% [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Inventory**: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].