Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views Pig Industry - Spot prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall boost from the Laba Festival is limited. Supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation pattern [2] Meal Industry - US soybeans are showing a strong - side oscillation. The domestic spot market remains loose, but there is limited downward space for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5] Oil Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise; soybean oil may be boosted by the US biofuel policy; rapeseed oil has been pushed up by capital. The overall market shows different trends [6] Red Date Industry - After the Laba Festival, the spot market's trading enthusiasm will decline. The futures are in a low - valuation range, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival trading and inventory [8] Apple Industry - The Spring Festival stocking atmosphere has slightly improved, but the inventory reduction is slow. Attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory [16] Corn Industry - Short - term corn remains in a high - level oscillation, supported by pre - festival stocking and restricted by policy releases. The 2,300 pressure level needs to be watched [19] Egg Industry - The egg market supply is stable, and the Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end. Attention should be paid to the terminal's digestion ability, and the egg price may correct [22] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation. Domestic cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area expectations, and attention should be paid to the support at 14,500 [23] Sugar Industry - International raw sugar is expected to oscillate in the low range of 14 - 15 cents. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, supported by cost and the overall commodity atmosphere [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis remains unchanged; the prices of "Pig 2605", "Pig 2603" and the "Pig 3 - 5 spread" have decreased; the main contract position has increased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in most regions have decreased, with only some regions showing an increase [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points has increased slightly; the weekly prices of white strips, piglets, sows and the weekly average slaughter weight have changed little; the weekly self - breeding profit has increased by 486.60% [2] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.30%, the futures price of "M2605" has increased by 0.65%, and the basis has increased by 6.69% [5] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.19%, the futures price of "RM2605" has increased by 1.52%, and the basis has decreased by 1.40% [5] - **Soybeans**: The spot prices of soybeans in Harbin and Jiangsu have increased; the futures prices of "Bean 1 main contract" and "Bean 2 main contract" have decreased [5] Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.05%, the futures price of "Y2605" has increased by 1.63%, and the basis has decreased by 8.82% [6] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong has increased by 1.90%, the futures price of "P2605" has increased by 2.04%, and the basis has decreased by 30.00% [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu has increased by 3.62%, the futures price of "OI605" has increased by 3.94%, and the basis has increased by 0.63% [6] Red Date Industry - **Futures Prices**: The prices of "Red Date 2605", "Red Date 2607" and "Red Date 2609" have decreased [8] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates have decreased slightly, while those of first - grade and second - grade red dates remain unchanged [8] Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: The price of the "Apple 2605" main contract has decreased by 0.72%, and that of the "Apple 2610" contract has decreased by 0.17% [12] - **Spot Indicators**: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets have increased; the national cold - storage inventory has decreased by 3.11% [12] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of "Corn 2603" has decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port has increased by 0.43%, and the basis has increased by 34.00% [19] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2603" has decreased by 0.66%, the average price of corn starch has increased by 0.18%, and the basis has increased by 13.58% [19] Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the "Egg 03" and "Egg 04" contracts have increased [22] - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price and the egg - chick price have increased, and the egg - to - feed ratio and the breeding profit have also improved [22] Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Cotton 2605" and "Cotton 2609" have decreased, and the ICE US cotton main contract has decreased slightly [23] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index of 3128B have increased, while the FC Index of M: 1% has decreased [23] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory has increased by 1.5%, and the import volume has increased by 49.5% [23] Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Sugar 2605" and "Sugar 2609" have decreased, and the ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 1.54% [26] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have decreased [26] - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has increased [26]

产业期现日报 厅 广发期货 投资次拍业名资格:证监许可 【2011】1202号 2026年1月27日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 420300 | 403250 | 17050 | 4.23% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -100 | 0 | -100 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 420800 | 403750 | 17050 | 4.22% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -245.00 | -189.00 | -56.00 | -29.63% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6632.02 | -7675.70 | 1043.68 | 13.60% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.98 | 7.96 | - | - | | | 月间价差 ...

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from Guangfa Futures and cover various industries including oils, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 26, 2026 [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soybean oil, the speculation of favorable US biodiesel policy boosts CBOT soybean oil, but domestic pre - Spring Festival factors limit continuous long positions. Supply is sufficient, and the basis quote may still decline in the short - term [1] - Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short correction. Domestic port inventory decline and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations support the market [1] - Rapeseed oil maintains a wide - range shock. The 05 contract faces hedging pressure, and the basis quote of reserve rapeseed oil slightly declines [1] Data Summary - Soybean oil: The price of Y2605 on January 23 was 8094 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous day. The basis was 476 yuan, down 7.75% [1] - Palm oil: The price of P2605 on January 23 was 8910 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 53.85% [1] - Rapeseed oil: The price of OIROS on January 23 was 8991 yuan, down 0.12%. The basis remained unchanged [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US cotton maintains a low - level shock. Domestic cotton consumption is high due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills, and the basis is strong. The expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area provides support. Attention should be paid to the support around 14,500 yuan [2] Data Summary - Cotton 2605 on January 23 was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.62% [2] - Spot prices such as Xinjiang 3128B increased, and the basis of 3128B - 05 contract increased by 9.36% [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thai sugar production is slow. Raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level shock between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level shock this week due to factors such as insufficient peak - season consumption and approaching the end of Spring Festival stocking [3] Data Summary - Sugar 2605 on January 23 was 5180 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 16.43% year - on - year [3] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market focuses on peak - season consumption. Sellers are actively shipping, and pre - holiday stocking may drive up spot prices. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upside is limited by hedging pressure [4] Data Summary - Jujube 2605 on January 23 was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The open interest decreased by 2.38% [4] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the arrival of the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the stocking atmosphere in some producing areas has improved. Good - quality apples have firm prices, while poor - quality ones face high inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to be strong due to low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and short - covering [5] Data Summary - Apple 2605 on January 23 was 9535 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% week - on - week [5] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of corn is relatively tight in the short - term, and pre - holiday stocking demand supports the price. However, continuous policy corn auctions and limited high - price transmission restrict the upside. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release intensity [7] Data Summary - Corn 2603 on January 23 was 2300 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The open interest increased by 2.33% [7] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices are strengthening again, but the supply pressure will increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock as the main focus is on the post - holiday off - season [10] Data Summary - The main hog contract on January 23 was 1685 yuan, up 5.31%. The slaughter volume increased by 1.79% [10] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are expected to be strong due to macro factors and biodiesel policy. Domestic supply is abundant, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low, and the meal price is expected to be in a shock range [13] Data Summary - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal on January 23 was 3080 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 increased by 5.45% [13] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Egg production is stable and sufficient. The demand may weaken as the Spring Festival stocking nears the end and group purchases decrease. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price eggs [14] Data Summary - The egg 03 contract on January 23 was 3046 yuan/500KG, down 1.58%. The basis increased by 26.72% [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Oil and Fat Industry**: The potential positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on CBOT soybean oil is countered by the approaching Chinese New Year, which reduces the likelihood of continuous long - position trading. The soybean oil basis may still decline in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with limited upside potential in the short term [1]. - **Cotton Industry**: US cotton is in a low - level oscillation. The high cotton consumption due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills in China, along with the expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area, provides strong support for Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the support level around 14,500 [2]. - **Sugar Industry**: Internationally, raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are likely to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the approaching end of Chinese New Year stocking and lack of upward drivers, but some support from prices below production cost and a positive commodity market atmosphere [3]. - **Jujube Industry**: With the market focusing on peak - season consumption, the spot price of jujubes is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [4]. - **Apple Industry**: As the Chinese New Year stocking period arrives, the market in some apple - producing areas is warming up. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and some short - position exits [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch Industry**: In the short term, the tight supply of corn and pre - festival stocking demand support price increases, but the continuous policy - driven corn release and limited high - price transmission restrict the upward space [7]. - **Pig Industry**: The spot price of pigs has strengthened, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is likely to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [10]. - **Meal Industry**: US soybeans are oscillating strongly. The domestic meal market is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space due to factors such as low first - quarter arrival expectations and high - level inventory decline [13]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply is stable, and the demand may weaken. As egg prices reach a high level, there is a risk of price correction if the terminal digestion ability is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 23, 2026, soybean oil futures (Y2605) increased by 0.12%, palm oil futures (P2605) decreased by 0.38%, and rapeseed oil futures (OI2605) decreased by 0.12% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35%, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.22%, and the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% [1]. - **Basis**: The soybean oil basis decreased by 7.75%, the palm oil basis increased by 53.85%, and the rapeseed oil basis remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The soybean oil inventory in Chinese coastal crushing plants is at a high level since 2022, the palm oil inventory in Chinese ports is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, cotton 2605 decreased by 0.24%, cotton 2609 decreased by 0.17%, and ICE US cotton decreased by 0.11% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The circular inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the consumption of cotton by downstream spinning mills is high [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, sugar 2605 increased by 0.43%, sugar 2609 increased by 0.33%, and ICE raw sugar decreased by 1.54% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.19% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative sugar production in China decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, jujube 2605 increased by 0.63%, jujube 2607 increased by 0.51%, and jujube 2609 increased by 0.44% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Cangzhou's top - grade jujubes increased by 0.11%, and the prices of first - grade and second - grade jujubes remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of jujube warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the number of effective forecasts increased by 6.68% [4]. Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, apple 2605 increased by 0.48%, and apple 2610 increased by 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The basis decreased by 3.57% [5]. - **Inventory**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On January 26, 2026, corn 2603 increased by 0.22%, the basis decreased by 9.09%, and the north - south trade profit increased by 90.91% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 increased by 0.23%, the basis decreased by 3.57%, and the starch - corn 03 spread increased by 0.36% [7]. Pig Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, the main pig contract increased by 5.31%, pig 2605 decreased by 0.38%, and pig 2603 decreased by 0.30% [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions showed different changes [10]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.79%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 5.45% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 0.67%, and the basis increased by 5.56% [13]. - **Soybean**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 16.30% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, egg 03 decreased by 1.58%, and egg 04 decreased by 1.15% [14]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.87%, and the basis increased by 26.72% [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 3.33%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.31%, and the egg - feed ratio increased by 17.36% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF603): Spot price 5652, futures price 5678, basis 26, basis rate 0.46%, historical quantile 58.10% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM603): Spot price 2950, futures price 5856, basis 94, basis rate 1161%, historical quantile not provided [1] - Rebar (RB2605): Spot price 3270, futures price 3142, basis 128, basis rate 4.07%, historical quantile 56.30% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605): Spot price 3290, futures price 3305, basis -15, basis rate -0.45%, historical quantile not provided [1] - Iron Ore (I2605): Spot price 850, futures price not provided, basis not provided, basis rate not provided, historical quantile 44.10% [1] - Coke (J2605): Spot price 1734, futures price 1722, basis 12, basis rate 0.71%, historical quantile 71.92% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Spot price 1156, futures price 1157, basis -1, basis rate -0.09%, historical quantile 31.40% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2603): Spot price 100830, futures price 101340, basis -510, basis rate -0.50%, historical quantile 14.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2603): Spot price 24110, futures price 24290, basis -180, basis rate -0.74%, historical quantile 12.50% [1] - Alumina (AO2605): Spot price 2632, futures price 2724, basis -92, basis rate -3.39%, historical quantile 13.87% [1] - Zinc (ZN2603): Spot price 24550, futures price 24585, basis -35, basis rate -0.14%, historical quantile 56.45% [1] - Tin (SN2603): Spot price 420300, futures price 429570, basis -9270, basis rate -1.16%, historical quantile 0.41% [1] - Nickel (NI2603): Spot price 144800, futures price 148010, basis -3210, basis rate -2.22%, historical quantile 0.41% [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2603): Spot price 14770, futures price 14725, basis 45, basis rate 0.31%, historical quantile 11.80% [1] - Industrial Silicon (215605): Spot price 9250, futures price 8820, basis 430, basis rate 4.65%, historical quantile 25.66% [1] - Gold (AU2604): Spot price 1110.4, futures price 1115.6, basis -5.3, basis rate -0.50%, historical quantile 2.50% [1] Precious Metals - IC2603.CFE: Spot price 8590.2, futures price 8658.2, basis 68.0, basis rate 0.79%, historical quantile 99.80% [1] - Silver (AG2604): Spot price 24988.0, futures price 24965.0, basis 23.0, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 95.20% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal (M2605): Spot price 3080, futures price 2751.0, basis 329.0, basis rate 10.68%, historical quantile 73.20% [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2605): Spot price 8490, futures price 8094.0, basis 396.0, basis rate 4.66%, historical quantile 69.70% [1] - Palm Oil (P2605): Spot price 8880, futures price 8910.0, basis -30.0, basis rate -0.34%, historical quantile 16.70% [1] - Methanol (MA605): Spot price 2263.0, futures price 2298.0, basis -35.0, basis rate -1.55%, historical quantile 16.10% [1] - Corn (C2603): Spot price 2360, futures price 2300.0, basis 60.0, basis rate 2.54%, historical quantile 64.60% [1] - Live Hogs (LH2603): Spot price 13250, futures price 11565.0, basis 1685.0, basis rate 12.72%, historical quantile 88.10% [1] - Eggs (JD2603): Spot price 3730, futures price 3046.0, basis 684.0, basis rate 18.34%, historical quantile 81.10% [1] - Cotton (CF605): Spot price 15550, futures price 14695.0, basis 855.0, basis rate 5.49%, historical quantile 37.60% [1] - Sugar (SR605): Spot price 5340, futures price 5180.0, basis 160.0, basis rate 3.00%, historical quantile 26.50% [1] - Apples (AP605): Spot price 9400, futures price 9535.0, basis -135.0, basis rate -1.44%, historical quantile 18.20% [1] - Red Dates (CJ605): Spot price 8800.0, futures price 8000, basis -800.0, basis rate -9.09%, historical quantile 53.50% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX603): Spot price 7409.0, futures price 7508.0, basis -99.0, basis rate -1.34%, historical quantile 10.50% [1] - Polypropylene (PP2605): Spot price 6600.0, futures price 6656.0, basis -56.0, basis rate -0.84%, historical quantile 12.60% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2605): Spot price 3875.0, futures price 3997.0, basis -122.0, basis rate -3.15%, historical quantile 13.50% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603): Spot price 6630.0, futures price 6782.0, basis -152.0, basis rate -2.24%, historical quantile 15.70% [1] - Styrene (EB2603): Spot price 7900.0, futures price 7708.0, basis 192.0, basis rate 2.43%, historical quantile 66.90% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2603): Spot price 12700.0, futures price 12930.0, basis -230.0, basis rate -1.81%, historical quantile 10.40% [1] - Urea (UR605): Spot price 1760.0, futures price 1788.0, basis -28.0, basis rate -1.59%, historical quantile 9.20% [1] - LLDPE (L2605): Spot price 6775.0, futures price 6865.0, basis -90.0, basis rate -1.33%, historical quantile 4.80% [1] - PVC (V2605): Spot price 4650.0, futures price 4921.0, basis -271.0, basis rate -5.83%, historical quantile 12.20% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH603): Spot price 1943.8, futures price 1945.0, basis -1.3, basis rate -0.07%, historical quantile 43.70% [1] - LPG (PG2603): Spot price 4748.0, futures price 4174.0, basis 574.0, basis rate 12.09%, historical quantile 74.90% [1] - Asphalt (BU2603): Spot price 3090.0, futures price 3236.0, basis -146.0, basis rate -4.72%, historical quantile 21.20% [1] - PTA (TA605): Spot price 5295.0, futures price 5448.0, basis -153.0, basis rate -2.89%, historical quantile 10.30% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2605): Spot price 16000.0, futures price 16315.0, basis -315.0, basis rate -1.97%, historical quantile 77.19% [1] Financial Futures - IF2603.CFE: Spot price 4702.5, futures price 4709.2, basis 6.7, basis rate 0.14%, historical quantile 82.50% [1] - IH2603.CFE: Spot price 3032.2, futures price 3037.8, basis 5.6, basis rate 0.18%, historical quantile 85.70% [1] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2603): Spot price 100.10, futures price 102.42, basis 0.00, basis rate 0.00%, historical quantile 29.30% [1] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2603): Spot price 99.63, futures price 105.88, basis -0.02, basis rate -0.02%, historical quantile 25.50% [1] - 30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2603): Spot price 126.83, futures price 112.29, basis 0.36, basis rate 0.32%, historical quantile 52.70% [1] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2603): Spot price 100.54, futures price 108.20, basis 0.04, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 20.90% [1] - IM2603.CFE: Spot price 8470.7, futures price 8516.6, basis 45.9, basis rate 0.54%, historical quantile 99.50% [1] Others - Glass (FG605): Spot price 928.0, futures price 1064.0, basis -136.0, basis rate -14.66%, historical quantile 17.64% [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM605): Spot price 2440, futures price 2235.0, basis 205.0, basis rate 8.40%, historical quantile 83.90% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Oleos): Spot price 9810, futures price 8991.0, basis 819.0, basis rate 8.35%, historical quantile 96.40% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2603): Spot price 2630, futures price 2575.0, basis 55.0, basis rate 2.10%, historical quantile 22.60% [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for logs shows strong performance. In Jiangsu, due to low inventory, some specifications of spot logs are in short supply, and prices continue to rise. The 03 contract faces less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction of future shipping volume. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Last week, the valuation of log futures was slightly repaired with a small rebound. Currently, the market sentiment is strong for consolidation, and in the short - term, it is advisable to participate in the range of 750 - 800 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures contracts on January 23rd, compared with January 22nd: the price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 772.5; log 2603 rose 7.5 to 776.0 with a 0.98% increase; log 2605 rose 2.5 to 788.5 with a 0.32% increase; log 2607 fell 0.5 to 799.0 with a - 0.06% decrease. The主力合约基差 decreased by 7.5 to - 36.0 [2] - Spot prices of various log types at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on January 23rd compared with January 22nd. For example, Rizhao Port's 3.9A small - sized radiata pine was 680.0, and Taicang Port's 4A medium - sized radiata pine was 770 [2] - The outer - market quotes of radiata pine 4 - meter medium - grade A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) remained unchanged on January 23rd compared with January 16th [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Estimation - On January 26th, compared with January 25th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 6.949, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 0.92 to 752.91 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In December, compared with November, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 14.8 to 204.0 million cubic meters with a 7.82% increase, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand increased by 6 to 55 with a 12.24% increase [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 16th, compared with January 9th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 12 to 257.00 million cubic meters with a - 4.46% decrease. In Shandong, it decreased by 4 to 192.00 million cubic meters with a - 2.04% decrease; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.4 to 41.08 million cubic meters with a - 15.18% decrease [2][3] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 16th, compared with January 9th, the average daily log出库量 in China increased by 0.41 to 6.16 million cubic meters with a 7% increase. In Shandong, it increased by 0.45 to 3.24 million cubic meters with a 16% increase; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 to 2.28 million cubic meters with a - 3% decrease [3] 3.6 Arrival Forecast - From January 19th to January 25th, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week with a 0% week - on - week increase. The total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 19,000 cubic meters from last week with a - 5% week - on - week decrease [3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, influenced by the US economic data's impact on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical situation fluctuations. Gold's upward momentum above the 20 - day moving average has increased, and long positions should be held. Selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1] - Driven by factors such as capital sentiment, the short - term silver price is strong, but the market is volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to risk - control measures of exchanges, adopt the strategy of buying on dips with light positions, and lock in profits in a timely manner [1] - Platinum and palladium, supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply, are moving in tandem with gold as the price center continues to rise. Given the RMB appreciation, the overseas prices are stronger than domestic ones. When facing strong resistance at last December's high, it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money options on platinum and palladium futures to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1115.64 yuan/gram on January 23, up 2.58% from January 22 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 24965 yuan/kilogram on January 23, up 6.97% [1] - P12606 contract closed at 685.90 yuan/gram on January 23, up 8.21% from January 22 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 497.95 yuan on January 23, up 2.94% from January 22 [1] Overseas Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold's main contract closed at 4983.10 dollars/ounce on January 23, up 0.91% from January 22 [1] - COMEX silver's main contract closed at 103.26 dollars/ounce on January 23, up 7.32% from January 22 [1] - NYMEX platinum's main contract closed at 2773.20 dollars/ounce on January 23, up 5.56% from January 22 [1] - NYMEX lithium - gold's main contract closed at 2047.00 dollars/ounce on January 23, up 5.22% from January 22 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4981.31 dollars/ounce, up 0.87% [1] - London silver was at 103.34 dollars/ounce, up 7.42% [1] - Spot platinum was at 2705.00 dollars/ounce, up 7.90% [1] - Spot palladium was at 1976.00 dollars/ounce, up 6.81% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1110.35 yuan/gram, up 2.44% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 24988 yuan/kilogram, up 6.94% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 682 yuan/5 grams, up 9.14% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold's main contract was - 5.29, down 1.63 from the previous value, at the 46.10% quantile of the past year [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver's main contract was 53, down 4 from the previous value, at the 60.60% quantile of the past year [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was - 1.79, down 1.74 from the previous value, at the 92.20% quantile of the past year [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was 0.08, up 0.09 from the previous value, at the 82.20% quantile of the past year [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 48.26, down 5.98% [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 44.69, down 4.10% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.35, up 0.33% [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.38, up 5.13% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, down 0.5% [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, down 0.3% [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 1.5% [1] - USD - CNH exchange rate was 97.51, down 0.79% [1] - The exchange rate of USD against offshore RMB was 6.9487, down 0.22% [1] Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory was 102009, with no change [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 281090, down 1.35% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36144280, with no change [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 416424863, down 0.42% [1] - COMEX gold registered warrants were 18845680, down 386, with a negligible change [1] - COMEX silver registered warrants were 114262775, with no change [1] - SPDR gold ETF position was 1087, up 0.64% [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16090 tons, down 0.09% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The mainstream regional liquid caustic soda market prices continued to decline this week. High开工 and poor sales led to inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - term prices are under pressure, and the short - term driving force remains weak [3]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. Although the market sentiment is good and the trend is relatively strong, with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream production demand is weakening, and inventory is rapidly accumulating. Also, the support from raw material calcium carbide is weak. It is expected that the upward space of PVC prices is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4700 - 5000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. There were frequent low - price situations in the week, impacting the market. The main downstream unloading was still difficult, and order transactions were light [3]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of major sample enterprises nationwide was 90.87%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week. There were sporadic short - stops of chlor - alkali plants, but some previously reduced - load plants resumed production [28]. - **Inventory**: On January 21, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 5.52% compared with January 14. In Shandong, the inventory decreased by 0.44% [28]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were some ongoing and planned maintenance situations of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined. Chongqing Tianyuan in the Southwest plans to have maintenance in March, but the specific time is undetermined [30]. - **Downstream Industry - Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new - to - be - put - into - production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production of alumina in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons. Recently, alumina futures prices have risen and then fallen, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the price will continue to operate weakly in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Export**: In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. Exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [59]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. As of now, the spot ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type five - grade in East China is 4520 - 4620 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - type is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased, with some enterprises having unplanned production cuts, but overall supply remained at a high level [4]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were no new maintenance enterprises this week, and the maintenance loss this week was 44,280 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5700 tons. It is expected that the maintenance loss will slightly decrease next week [74]. - **Downstream Industry - Real Estate**: The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and commercial housing sales area showing weak performance [75]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [82]. - **External Market**: Some external PVC prices have weakened [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].