关注微信公众号 | 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月8日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 890.4 | 870.8 | 19.6 | 2.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | | 867.7 | 24.2 | | | | | 6 168 | | | 2.8% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 892.8 | 869.0 | 23.8 | 2.7% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 928.6 | 904.7 | 23.9 | 2.6% | | | 05合约基差:卡粉 | 62.4 | 69.8 | -7.4 | -10.6% | 元/肥 | | 05合约基差:PB粉 | 63.9 | 66.7 | -2.8 | -4.2% | | | 05合约基差:巴混粉 | 64.8 | 68.0 | -3.2 | -4.7% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given documents. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products across different sectors, including financial derivatives, metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, offering trading strategies and future outlooks based on these analyses. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Nickel: Influenced by supply contraction expectations in Indonesia and geopolitical risks, the nickel market maintains a strong trend. It may experience high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][41]. - LLDPE: Upstream manufacturers keep prices firm. Rumors of supply contraction and production shifts may strengthen the upward price trend in the short term, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance [3][109]. - Iron Ore: Driven by news, the price is expected to transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high - level oscillations. Short - term strategies suggest short - term long positions, with a reference range of 770 - 840 yuan [3][56]. - Meal: The global soybean market is in a loose pattern, but the domestic market may show a short - term upward trend due to future tightness expectations [4][77]. - Silver: Driven by long - position capital, the price shows a strong trend, but there are risks of price corrections. It is recommended to hold light long positions above $70 [5][15]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market has a post - holiday rally. It is recommended to hold bullish spread portfolios and construct covered call portfolios. The IC contract shows stronger performance [7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Affected by the stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns, the market may experience weak oscillations. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side strategies and consider steepening the yield curve in the medium term [10][12]. Precious Metals - Gold: Although the U.S. economic data shows some improvement, the long - term upward potential of gold remains. It is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300 [13][15]. - Silver: Long - position capital drives the price, but there are risks of price corrections. It is recommended to hold light long positions above $70 [5][15]. - Platinum and Palladium: They are expected to show a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) The SCFIS European line index shows a mixed trend. The futures market is expected to experience short - term oscillations [17]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support level of 99,000 - 100,000 yuan [17][21]. - Alumina: The futures price is driven by market sentiment, but the spot price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [21][23]. - Aluminum: Supported by macro and policy factors, but facing supply - demand and inventory pressures, it is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 yuan [24][26]. - Zinc: Supported by tight domestic zinc ore supply and low inventory, but facing pressure from future imported ore supply. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a support level of 23,300 - 23,400 yuan [29][32]. - Tin: Affected by geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, the price is expected to show a strong oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [33][38]. - Nickel: Influenced by supply contraction expectations in Indonesia and geopolitical risks, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][41]. - Stainless Steel: Driven by raw material price increases, it is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 yuan [42][45]. - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by news, policies, and supply - demand factors, the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and consider converting long positions to call options [45][48]. - Polysilicon: In a situation of weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - Industrial Silicon: Affected by organic silicon production cuts, it is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to production cuts [52][53]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Driven by cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate upward in a range. The reference range for rebar is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,150 - 3,350 yuan [53][54]. - Iron Ore: Driven by news, it is expected to transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high - level oscillations. Short - term strategies suggest short - term long positions, with a reference range of 770 - 840 yuan [3][56]. - Coking Coal: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the spot price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and consider arbitrage strategies [58][62]. - Coke: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the spot market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider arbitrage strategies [63][67]. - Ferrosilicon: Driven by macro news, the price is expected to oscillate upward in a range, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,300 yuan [68][70]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro news and South African manganese ore supply, the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to adopt range - trading strategies, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,400 yuan [71][73]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The global soybean market is in a loose pattern, but the domestic market may show a short - term upward trend due to future tightness expectations [4][77]. - Live Hogs: After the holiday, demand declines. The supply in January is expected to be relatively loose, and the price may face pressure [78][79]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, the price increase is limited by selling pressure and policies [81][82]. - Sugar: Supported by holiday demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [83][85]. - Cotton: The U.S. cotton market is expected to oscillate, and the domestic cotton market may show a bullish trend in the short term, but there is a risk of price correction [85]. - Eggs: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level as the holiday approaches [88]. - Fats and Oils: Affected by China's monetary policy, the market shows a strong rebound. Different types of oils have different outlooks [90][92]. - Red Dates: Driven by market sentiment, the futures price is strong, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [93][94]. - Apples: The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality apples and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [95]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to adopt short - term range - trading and medium - term long - buying strategies [96][97]. - PTA: Driven by raw materials, the supply - demand situation in January is expected to weaken. It is recommended to adopt short - term range - trading and medium - term long - buying strategies [98][99]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price. It is recommended to adopt the same strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies [100]. - Bottle Chips: The supply and demand are expected to decline in January, and it is expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to adopt the same strategy as PTA and expect the processing margin to oscillate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [101][103]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to face pressure in January. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and adopt reverse - arbitrage strategies [104][105]. - Pure Benzene: The supply is stable, and the demand shows a slight improvement, but the price is under pressure from high inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan [106]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after January. It is recommended to short - sell above 6,800 yuan and reduce the processing margin on rallies [107][108]. - LLDPE: Upstream manufacturers keep prices firm. Supply contraction expectations and market sentiment drive the price upward. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance [109]. - PP: The supply - demand is weak, and the price shows a slight increase. Attention should be paid to PDH profit expansion [110]. - Methanol: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low levels in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 yuan [111]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [111][112]. - PVC: Driven by the black market, the price shows an upward trend, but the supply - demand fundamentals are not improved. It is not recommended to chase the price higher [113][114]. - Urea: Driven by multiple factors, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term. Attention should be paid to device restart and downstream demand [115][116]. - Soda Ash: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119]. - Glass: Driven by the macro - environment, the price shows a strong trend, but the demand may decline in January. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion [117][120]. - Natural Rubber: Driven by market sentiment and news, the price shows a strong oscillation, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122]. - Synthetic Rubber: The fundamental support is limited, but the market sentiment drives the price upward. It is not recommended to short - sell in the short term [122][125].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月7日 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 展新值 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | -12.69 | 8.05 | 62.70% | 33.70% | 上期间处差 | H期现价去 | 3.04 | 3.98 | 83.60% | 74.30% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 43.70% | 27.46 | 76.20% | -27.74 | -102.50 | 44.20 | 55.00% | IM期现价差 | 16.40% | 次月-当月 | -10.60 | 0.80 | 60.6096 | 37.90% | | | 零月-当月 | -17.40 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The A - share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad - based ETFs recently, and the downside space is limited. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. The post - holiday market has a strong upward momentum, and it is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios [3]. - The current abundant capital supports the bond market, but concerns about supply and the strengthening of equities restrain the performance of long - term bonds. Market consistency behavior may amplify fluctuations, and the stabilization or repair of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer [3]. - Geopolitical risks and tight supply continue to drive up the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain high - volatility operation in January, and silver is recommended to be lightly long - held with low positions in high - volatility markets [3]. - Steel production is being cut and inventories are being reduced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the iron ore market, more steel mills are resuming production, and attention should be paid to the impact of finished product export policies [3]. - Coal prices in Shanxi are running weakly, and coking coal and coke are viewed bearishly. The market sentiment for ferrosilicon has improved, and the price of manganese silicon is affected by ore support and supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Concerns about the stability of metal supply have intensified, driving up copper prices. Aluminum prices have reached new highs, but there are signs of over - rising in the short term. Zinc prices have moved up, and tin prices are oscillating strongly [3]. - The organic silicon industry is reducing production to support prices, and the polysilicon futures have fallen after rising. The lithium carbonate market has a strong sentiment, and supply disruptions are expected to intensify [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels, and short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply and demand of bottle chips are both decreasing in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space [3]. - Ethanol is in a seasonal inventory - building period, and the price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation of benzene is slightly improving, but high inventories still put pressure on prices [3]. - The LLDPE market has strong orders, and the price of PP has strengthened slightly. The port price of methanol is strong, and the futures of caustic soda have rebounded strongly [3]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the urea market has improved after the Indian tender results were announced. The soda ash and glass markets have rebounded due to macro factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate. The prices of edible oils are oscillating within a range, and the prices of sugar are rebounding slightly [3]. - The egg supply is stable, and the apple market is driven by the shortage of high - quality fruits. The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and the price of red dates has stabilized [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Nickel (NI2602) is expected to fluctuate strongly; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be strong in the short term; Iron ore (I2605) is recommended for short - term long - position attempts; Live pigs (LH2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; Silver (AG2604) is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share index has rebounded, and the stock index has reached new highs. It is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios. Core assets and technology - leading stocks represented by IH and IC are dominant [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is supported by abundant funds, but long - term bonds are restricted. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage, and steepen the yield curve [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and tight supply drive up prices. Gold should be held long above $4300, silver should be lightly long - held with low positions, and platinum and palladium should be long - held at low positions [3]. Commodity Sector - **Steel and Iron**: Steel prices are range - bound, iron ore is recommended for short - term long - positions, coking coal and coke are bearish, ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and manganese silicon is for range - bound operations [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are rising, aluminum prices are at new highs but not recommended to be chased, zinc prices are rising, tin prices are strongly oscillating, and nickel and stainless steel are recommended for long - positions at low prices [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Organic silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen after rising, lithium carbonate is recommended to wait and see, PX and PTA are for high - level oscillations and low - level long - positions, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: LLDPE is recommended for short - term long - positions, PP should focus on PDH profit expansion, methanol is recommended for long - positions at low prices, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate, edible oils are range - bound, sugar is slightly rebounding, cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and red dates are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3].

| -2.39% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5776 | 44.30% | 硅铁 (SF603) | -138 | 5638 | 5900 | 5918 | -0.30% | 硅罐 (SM603) | -18 | 22.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.43% | 169 | 67.00% | 3280 | 3111 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | -3 | -0.09% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3260 | 3263 | 17.40% | 热卷(HC2605) | | | | | | ୧୪ | 870 | 8.56% | 53.50% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 801 | 铁矿石 (12605) | ટે | 1.52% | 1680 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 774 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan per cubic meter. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, and the latest round of FOB quotes decreased by 2 US dollars. Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2nd, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2nd, the daily average log out - bound volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week. From December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, 15 vessels of New Zealand coniferous logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 vessels and a week - on - week increase of 67%; the total arrival volume was 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters and a week - on - week increase of 66.8%. The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. Currently, the log futures price fluctuates little. With low inventory and an expected decrease in later shipments, the inventory pressure is small. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On January 6th, the price of log 2601 was 767.5, up 14.0 (1.86%) from January 5th; log 2603 was 774.0, up 1.5 (0.19%); log 2605 and log 2607 remained unchanged at 785.0 and 797.0 respectively. The main contract basis was - 34.0, down 1.5 from January 5th [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 6th compared to January 5th [1]. - **External Quotes**: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter on January 9th, down 2 US dollars (- 1.79%) from January 2nd; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.976 on January 6th compared to January 2nd. The import theoretical cost was 755.77 yuan on January 6th, down 13.31 yuan (- 2%) from January 2nd [1]. Supply: Monthly - The port freight volume was 1.914 million cubic meters on November 30th, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters (1.16%) from October 31st. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52.0 on a certain date, an increase of 3.0 (6.12%) [1]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2nd, China's total coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters (5.12%) compared to December 26th. Shandong's inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters (5.29%) [1]. Demand - As of January 2nd, the daily average log out - bound volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters (- 3%) compared to December 26th. In Shandong, it was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters (4%); in Jiangsu, it was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters (- 11%) [3].

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a decline in the Malaysian palm oil market after breaking below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are also expected to be weak in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil may be affected by related varieties. In China, the inventory of soybean oil in oil mills is decreasing, and the fundamentals are positive [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. There may be a risk of further decline in the futures price, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. 2.2 Cotton The ICE cotton futures are rising. The US cotton is expected to be volatile. In China, the cotton sales progress is faster than last year, and there are no obvious negative factors. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 2.3 Sugar The ICE raw sugar futures are slightly rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In China, the sugar price is expected to be weak and volatile due to the expected increase in production [4]. 2.4 Jujube The current spot market trading of jujube is light, and the price is loose. The new - season warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction [6]. 2.5 Corn In the short - term, the corn price will be volatile due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy supply. The price will be suppressed by policy releases and potential pre - festival selling pressure [8]. 2.6 Pork The spot price of pork has returned to a volatile pattern. The futures price is expected to be in a consolidation phase in the short - term, with limited upward space [10]. 2.7 Meal The global soybean supply is loose, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic meal market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with limited downward space [13]. 2.8 Eggs The inventory of laying hens may decrease, and the supply pressure may ease. The egg price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern due to the relatively loose supply [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1.09% to 554 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 66.67% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 6.68% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spread increased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [1]. 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the futures price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - Industrial inventory, imports, and cotton outbound transportation volume increased, while textile industry inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the futures price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales decreased, and the inventory in some regions decreased [4]. 3.4 Jujube 3.4.1 Futures Price - The futures price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the futures price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4.2 Spot Price - The spot price of Cangzhou super - grade jujube decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade jujube remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Corn 3.5.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.31% [8]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.91% [8]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 550 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.3 Spot Indicators - The slaughter volume increased by 0.07% to 225069 heads, and the self - breeding and reproduction profit increased by 73.41% [10]. 3.7 Meal 3.7.1 Price Changes - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. 3.7.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly [13]. 3.8 Eggs 3.8.1 Futures Market - The futures price of egg 03 increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of egg 04 increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan/500KG [15]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The egg产区 price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan/jin [15]. 3.8.3 Related Indicators - The egg - feed ratio decreased by 2.08%, and the breeding profit decreased by 13.96% [15].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多头加仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国君多头加仓超千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 国君空头减仓 2000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 国君空头减仓超 1000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 4,731.0 4,016.0 4,193.0 3,006.0 6,165.0 6,283.0 6,560.0 -176.0 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 电 话：020-88818051 E ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry continues to reduce production and inventory. Rebar maintains a large supply - demand gap and good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand and weak demand in 2026 limit price upward elasticity, but production cuts support steel prices. Raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are expected to drive steel prices to fluctuate upward within a range (rebar 3000 - 3200, hot - rolled coil 3150 - 3350) [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will transition from loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. High inventory suppresses prices, while low - inventory restocking expectations support prices. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with short - term prices fluctuating strongly in the range of 770 - 840 [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the spot market is weak, with increased inventory and weak downstream demand. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts, there is still a price - cut expectation. Both suggest short - selling at high prices and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance in the alloy market. The price is expected to fluctuate, with silicon iron in the range of 5500 - 6000 and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices show different trends. For example, rebar spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while steel production costs and profits changed. For example, Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained stable, while the output of five major steel products increased by 2.3% (815.2 tons), rebar output increased by 2.1% (188.2 tons), and hot - rolled coil output increased by 3.7% (304.5 tons) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% (1232.2 tons), rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% (422.0 tons), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.7% (371.0 tons) [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 11.3% (9.7 tons), the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.9% (841.0 tons), rebar apparent demand decreased by 1.1% (200.4 tons), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.2% (310.8 tons) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and basis showed different changes. For example, the cost of Kafen warehouse receipts increased by 0.8% (870.8 yuan/ton), and the 05 - contract basis of Kafen increased by 3.8% (69.8 yuan/ton) [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 6.0% (2756.4 tons), the global shipment volume decreased by 12.6% (3213.7 tons), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% (11054.0 tons) [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% (227.4 tons), the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.2% (325.2 tons), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3% (15970.89 tons), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.0% (8946.5 tons), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% (20.0 days) [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - Coking coal and coke prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1511 yuan/ton), and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1230 yuan/ton) [6] Supply and Demand - Coking coal supply increased slightly after the New Year, but sales were poor and inventory accumulated. Coke production decreased due to pressure on coking profits. Demand for both was affected by steel mill production [6] Inventory Changes - Coking coal and coke inventories increased at various levels, including mines, coking plants, and steel mills [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Prices and Spreads - Silicon iron and silicon manganese prices showed different trends. For example, the silicon iron主力 contract increased by 2.74% (5776.0 yuan/ton), and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 Guangxi spot price decreased by 0.5% (5700.0 yuan/ton) [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese changed. For example, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicon iron increased by 0.3% (5815.3 yuan/ton), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia silicon iron decreased by 36.2 yuan [8] Supply - The output of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history [8] Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese was supported by the increase in pig iron output. For example, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44% (227.4 tons) [8] Inventory Changes - The inventories of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained high, and the inflection point had not appeared [8]