1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Methanol and monomers are weak, and marginal profits are recovering. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is weakening. Dynamically, the supply pressure in July is not significant, and the overall pressure still exists, but inventory reduction has improved in July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong drivers, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, LP can be taken profit at around 250 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, PP2601 prices increased slightly, while L2509, PP2509 prices decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some varieties also changed. For example, the spread of L2509 - 2601 decreased by 130.77%, and the spread of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 100% [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventories are accumulating. The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%. The downstream weighted operating rates of both also decreased slightly [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Crude oil futures prices are under pressure, mainly due to the game between geopolitical sanctions expectations and macro - demand concerns. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical supply disturbances to the actual impact of trade policies on demand. In the short term, oil prices are still dominated by macro uncertainties. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies, and capture opportunities for increased volatility on the options side [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC futures prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. For example, Brent - WTI increased by 0.90%, and SC - Brent increased by 24.50% [6]. - **Product Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most product oil prices decreased, and the cracking spreads of some product oils also changed. For example, the US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 0.25%, and the Singapore diesel cracking spread increased by 4.43% [6]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: PX rebound is under pressure, but there is support at low levels. PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term, and opportunities to expand the PX - SC spread at low levels can be focused on [10]. - **PTA**: PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and short - selling strategies can be considered above 4800 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is gradually turning to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. EG09 can be observed unilaterally, focusing on the pressure around 4400 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand of short - fiber is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Strategies mainly focus on expanding the processing fee at low levels on the PF disk [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand of bottle - chip has improvement expectations, but the absolute price still fluctuates with the cost side. PR strategies are similar to PTA, and opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the range can be focused on [10]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, and other products also changed. For example, the PX spot price (in RMB) increased by 1.6%, and the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 23.9% [10]. - **开工率**: The operating rates of Asian PX, PTA, MEG, and some downstream industries changed. For example, the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0% [10]. Group 4: Chlor - alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the high profit stimulates high production. The transaction activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and the short - term macro - sentiment is strong [14][15]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is weakly sorted. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Although the macro - atmosphere has improved, it is difficult to see a significant price decline in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 2.4%, and the price of V2509 increased by 0.6% [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda production rate is high, and the downstream operating rates of some industries have changed slightly. The PVC production rate is relatively stable, and the downstream product operating rates are decreasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [14][15]. Group 5: Styrene Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene has rebounded, but its own driving force is limited. The import expectation is high, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price transmission of some downstream products is not smooth, which may limit the rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and adopt the reverse - spread strategy for the month - spread [38]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry is operating at a high level, but the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Although the absolute price is supported by the strong oil price and the commodity market atmosphere, the increase is limited. EB08 should focus on the pressure above 7500, and high - short opportunities can be considered [38]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also changed. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 28.9% [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports increased. The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and styrene also changed slightly [38]. Group 6: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The inland methanol market has limited short - term decline space due to the support of centralized maintenance in July. The port market is facing dual pressures: the复产 of Iranian plants is continuing, and the import in July is expected to reach 1.2 million tons; at the same time, the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken the olefin demand, and the port is expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July, and the price suppression is significantly enhanced [41]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.82%, and the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot decreased by 0.75% [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventories are accumulating. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, and the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.50% [41]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The urea futures price has declined, mainly due to the superposition of the expectation of loose supply and short - term weakening demand. The daily production is maintained at a high level, and the demand for agricultural summer top - dressing is coming to an end, and industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures. Although the export policy is relaxed and the Indian tender price has increased, the short - term export orders have not fully alleviated the domestic inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [48]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices changed. For example, the price of Shandong (small particles) decreased by 2.15% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of urea is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The daily production remains high, and the agricultural and industrial demands are both decreasing. The inventory in ports is increasing, while the inventory in factories is decreasing [48].

广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头各减仓 5000 手以上 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓明显下降 | 前二十席位均减仓为主 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2507 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头减仓逾 3000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 7000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -8,205.0 -7,554.0 -13,063.0 -13,493.0 -19,160.0 -14,582.0 -14,672.0 -28,320.0 -30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 IF IH IC I ...

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月14日 | 7月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9000 | 8820 | J20 | 1.69% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 302 | 435 | -130 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a300 | 9200 | 100 | 1.09% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -185 | -15 | -180 | -1200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8350 | 8300 | 50 | 0.60% | | | 基差(新疆) | 455 | ୧୫5 | -230 | -33.58% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月14日 | 7月11日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2508-2509 | -140 | 35 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王涛辉 Z0019938 2025年7月15日 | | | | | | | 田洞 | | | | | | | 7月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | 8230 我们 江苏一级 8240 -10 -0.12% | | | | | | | Y2509 7994 7986 8 0.10% 期价 | | | | | | | 是差 Y2509 236 254 -18 -7.09% | | | | | | | 现货基差报价 江苏6月 09+200 09 +210 -10 - | | | | | | | -1.76% | | | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月11日 | | | | | | | -0.34% | 广东24度 8770 8800 -30 现价 | | | | | | P2509 | | 期价 8748 8682 ୧୧ 0.76% | | | | | -81.36% | | | | | | | 广东6月 | | | | 现货墓差报价 09+150 ...

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply tends to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and the price is expected to be bearish after a rebound, with attention paid to the pressure around 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.56 cents/pound, up 1.85%. The main contract open interest increased by 4.46% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the Kunming spot price is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%; the Kunming basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 26.67% [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year-on-year; the national cumulative sugar sales is 811.38 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [1]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly within a stable range, but will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract open interest increased by 0.80% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index: 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 33.3% month - on - month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited and it is still under pressure at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The in - lay hen inventory remains high, but the egg production rate and egg weight have declined due to high temperatures. The demand is expected to increase [8]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The palm oil price may fall and adjust; the soybean oil price will maintain high production, and the spot basis quotation is under pressure [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - class soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic palm oil inventory and soybean oil inventory situation are given, and the influence of production and inventory on prices is analyzed [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The meal market is under pressure, the domestic soybean and meal inventory is rising, and the meal price is currently in the process of bottom - grinding [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The US soybean production, export, and inventory are affected by weather and tariffs. The domestic soybean and meal inventory and supply and demand situation are also analyzed [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term corn market sentiment is weak, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The main contract open interest increased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price remains unchanged; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430 yuan/ton, down 0.41% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The import corn auction situation, downstream demand, and substitution situation are analyzed [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price is under pressure in the short term, but there is no basis for a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 on the 09 contract [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract is 13645 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the price of the 2509 contract is 14345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The main contract open interest decreased by 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The pig spot price fluctuates, with prices in various regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, the market demand is weak, and the production capacity expansion is cautious [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There is no explicit core view presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various financial products, including futures spreads, prices, and related economic indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spread Data**: Presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles, and changes from the previous day for IF, IH, IC, and IM's term - current spreads, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. - **Term - Current Spreads**: For example, the IF term - current spread is 16.62, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 28.60% and a full - history percentile of 20.70% [1]. - **Inter - Term Spreads**: Such as the next - month minus current - month spread of IF is - 14.60, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 26.20% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 is 0.0161, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 65.90% [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spread Data**: Provides the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - **Basis**: The TS basis on July 11, 2025, is 1.5774, with a change of - 0.0001 and a percentile since listing of 23.00% [2]. - **Inter - Term Spreads**: The current - quarter minus next - quarter spread of TS on July 11, 2025, is - 0.1020, with a change of 0.0080 and a percentile since listing of 10.30% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The TS - TF spread on July 11, 2025, is - 3.5790, with a change of - 0.0030 and a percentile since listing of 7.10% [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price and Spread Data**: Covers domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of precious metals (gold and silver) [6]. - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 773.56 yuan/g on July 11, 2025, up 0.26 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day [6]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3354.75 dollars/ounce on July 11, 2025, up 31.41 dollars or 0.95% [6]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 4.26, with a change of - 0.18 and a historical 1 - year percentile of 9.20% [6]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.25, down 2.33 or - 2.63% from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Includes spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the shipping industry [9]. - **Spot Quotes**: The Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate reference of MAERSK is 3027 dollars/FEU on July 14, 2025, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on June 30, 2025, is 2123.24, up 186.1 or 9.61% from June 23 [9]. - **Futures Prices**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1344.0 on July 11, 2025, down 21.7 or - 1.59% from the previous day [9]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 791.3, up 196.3 or 32.99% from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on July 14, 2025, is 3270.28 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day [9]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Data and Information Schedule**: Lists overseas and domestic data sources, time, and economic indicators or financial events for different sectors [11]. - **Overseas Data**: In the agricultural products sector, the US provides USDA export inspection and crop growth data, and Brazil provides the secex weekly report [11]. - **Domestic Data**: For macro - data, China's June trade balance (in billions of yuan) is released at 0:00; in the energy - chemical sector, Shandong's local refinery crude oil arrivals (in million tons) are reported at 14:00 by Longzhong Information [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions will show a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the repeated negotiations on reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should focus on the 78000 support level [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely in the range of 2950 - 3250 this week. Mid - term, it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices. For aluminum, the current aluminum price is running at a high level, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected to be under short - term high - level pressure. The main contract should focus on the 20800 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mine end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium - to - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, but the market sentiment is currently stable. The nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 118000 - 126000 [10]. Tin - In the short term, macro disturbances are large. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high prices, and pay attention to the resumption progress in Myanmar and US tariff policies [13]. Stainless Steel - Currently, macro uncertainties increase, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, weakening cost support. The supply - side production cuts are less than expected, and demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the market will be mainly in a volatile state, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the balance surplus may increase recently. The market will be in a state of game between sentiment and fundamentals, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract referring to the range of 60000 - 65000 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.13% to 78720 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.18 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.30% to 20790 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 150.5 yuan/ton to - 1324 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2511 - 2512) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.13% to 22430 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 86.06 yuan/ton to - 1524 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons month - on - month. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 1.29% to 122150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 202 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 0.11% to 904 yuan/nickel point [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31800 tons, a decrease of 3220 tons month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 19157 tons, an increase of 10325 tons month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.64% to 266700 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 848.75 yuan/ton to - 17105.21 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13449 tons, an increase of 3588 tons month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.39% to 12700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2508 - 2509) decreased by 85 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In April, the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons month - on - month. The 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in Indonesia (Qinglong) remained unchanged at 36.00 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% to 63750 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 1460 yuan/ton to - 1600 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, an increase of 6010 tons month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93875 tons, a decrease of 145 tons month - on - month [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - This week, steel price fluctuations increased again, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices and a weakening of the basis. The black prices started to stabilize in June due to environmental inspections and production cuts in coking coal. Market sentiment improved in July, leading to a general increase in commodities. The fundamentals show that weekly steel production decreased with the decline in apparent demand, and inventory remained flat in July, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply will remain abundant, resulting in insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation repair trading, but the upward elasticity of actual demand is limited. The next macro observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract showed a strong upward trend. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to decline. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and production restrictions in Tangshan, the pig iron output decreased from its high level but remained at around 240,000 tons per day. In the short term, the resilience of pig iron production will be maintained. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off-season, the current export rush provides some support. In the future, the pig iron output in July will continue to decline, with an average expected to be maintained at 230,000 - 240,000 tons, and steel mill profits will continue to improve. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for single-side operations and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long operation. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coke and coking coal futures showed strong upward trends. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts was implemented on June 23, and the market expects the first round of price increases to be implemented soon. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants have resumed production, but the overall production recovery is slow. On the demand side, due to environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, the operating rates of independent coking plants and blast furnaces decreased slightly. In July, the pig iron output may remain at 230,000 - 240,000 tons per day. For coking coal, the spot market showed a bottoming - out and rebound trend. The overall production recovery of coal mines was slow, and the supply was still in short supply. The price of imported Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure decreased. It is recommended to conduct a calendar spread long operation for both coke and coking coal and buy on dips for single - side operations. [7] 3. Summary by Catalog Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts increased to varying degrees. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and plate billets increased, and the costs of different types of steel production also changed. The profits of steel products in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 50 yuan/ton to 223 yuan/ton. [1] Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.2 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 12.4 tons to 872.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products remained basically unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory and a slight increase in hot - rolled coil inventory. [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 tons to 10.1 tons, a decrease of 12.7%. The apparent demands of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased. [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to - 47.0, an increase of 1.1%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 to 27.5, a decrease of 1.8%. [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 120.9 tons to 2483.9 tons, an increase of 5.1%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 362.7 tons to 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 tons to 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased slightly. [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 56.8 tons to 13765.89 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 61.1 tons to 8979.6 tons, an increase of 0.7%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of coke and coking coal futures increased, and the basis of different contracts decreased. For example, the coke 09 contract increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased by 16 yuan/ton to 897 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased. The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly. [7] Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills also decreased. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant inventory and an increase in the port inventory. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the inventories of the full - sample coking plants and ports increased. [7]

| 硅铁 (SF509) | 118 | 72.80% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5578 | 5460 | 2.16% | 124 | 硅罐 (SM509) | 5870 | 5746 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 2.16% | 46.90% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 87 | 3220 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3133 | 2.78% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 45.40% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 27 | 3273 | 0.82% | 28.20% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3300 | | | | | | 38 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 802 | 764 | 32.70% | 铁矿石 (12509) | 4.96% | 1382 | 1520 | -137 | 18 ...