Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7][8] Core Views Steel - Yesterday, steel prices remained weak, with coking coal and coke on the raw material side being weak and iron ore being slightly strong. Steel continued to reduce production and destock. Rebar maintained a large supply - demand gap and good destocking, while hot - rolled coil destocking was still slow. Apparent demand declined seasonally, and demand was weak. The weak demand expectation in 2026 restricted the upward price elasticity, but current production cuts supported steel prices. The rebar price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil price in the range of 3150 - 3350. Pay attention to the support levels of rebar at 3000 and hot - rolled coil at 3150 [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract opened higher and then maintained a high - level shock. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse ended. Future focus is on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the pig iron output remained flat, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, but many were still under annual overhauls. The steel mill profitability improved, but overall it was the off - season for demand, with high finished product inventory and many overhauls, so the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. Iron ore inventory is at a high level in the same period, and it will continue to accumulate. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate strongly. Consider short - term long positions, with the price range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. After the 4th round of price cuts in the spot market, there is still an expectation of further cuts. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind those of coking coal, squeezing coking profits and reducing production. On the demand side, steel mills' losses increased, leading to more overhauls, a decline in pig iron output, and an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The coke supply - demand situation weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Coking Coal - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weak, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily coal mine output after the new year, but poor sales led to inventory accumulation. Imported coal at the port continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated downward. On the demand side, steel mill losses and overhauls decreased slightly, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profits declined, and production decreased slightly. The market's demand for inventory replenishment weakened. All sectors' inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract fluctuated downward. The supply side saw a halt in the decline of ferrosilicon production, with production cuts mainly in Shaanxi and Gansu, and a slight increase in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. In terms of steelmaking demand, pig iron output was basically flat, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Non - steel demand from metal magnesium had some support, but the export profit weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, and the production cut expectation has been priced in. The future demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and prices lack upward momentum. Pay attention to the policy changes and raw material prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] Ferromanganese - Yesterday, ferromanganese fluctuated. The supply side had a slight increase in production last week, and there is still room for short - term production growth. In terms of demand, pig iron output increased slightly, and steelmaking demand was stable. Steel mills had a strong price - pressing sentiment in tenders. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory remained high. The manganese ore price was stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased. Ferromanganese is in a state of slight over - supply but generally balanced. Manganese ore supports the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the key being the production cut amplitude and the end - of - year raw material replenishment by steel mills. Consider range - bound operations, with the range of 5500 - 5800 [8] Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and North China decreased by 20 and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton, and the slab price at 3730 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions had different changes, with most showing an increase of 3 yuan [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained at 226.5 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.4 tons to 815.2 tons, with rebar output increasing by 3.8 tons to 188.2 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 11.0 tons to 304.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 25.8 tons to 1232.2 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 422.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 371.0 tons [1] Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 8.7, a decline of 4.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.4 tons to 841.0 tons, the rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.2 tons to 202.7 tons, and the hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.7 tons to 310.8 tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders mostly increased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 22.0, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 to 17.5 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 tons to 2756.4 tons, the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 tons to 3213.7 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average dispatching volume increased by 1.6 tons to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 41.8 tons to 15970.89 tons, the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 days [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 56 and 45 respectively, with a decline of 3.7% and 2.6% respectively [7] Supply - The daily average output of full - sample coking plants and 247 - steel mill coking remained unchanged at 62.7 and 46.8 tons respectively [7] Demand - The 247 - steel mill pig iron output remained at 226.6 tons [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 915.7 tons, with the full - sample coking plant inventory decreasing by 0.6 tons to 91.6 tons, the 247 - steel mill inventory increasing by 1.8 tons to 644.0 tons, and the port inventory increasing by 1.9 tons to 180.1 tons [7] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal price decreased by 16, a decline of 1.4%. The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 16 and 35 respectively, with a decline of 1.5% and 3.14% respectively [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The steel mill loss and overhaul decreased, pig iron output was stable with a slight increase, coking profit declined, and production decreased slightly [7] Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 13.6 tons to 148.5 tons, the full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 12.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, and the 247 - steel mill coking coal inventory decreased by 4.5 tons to 802.3 tons [7] Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The main ferrosilicon contract decreased by 48 to 5624, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions mostly decreased [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1, and the production profit decreased by 6.7 [8] Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 0.0 tons to 9.9 tons, and the production enterprise's operating rate remained at 29.5% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferrosilicon demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 6.4 tons [8] Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The main ferromanganese contract decreased by 46 to 5874, a decline of 0.8%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions had different changes [8] Cost and Profit - The manganese ore price remained stable, and some mines' January outer - market quotes increased [8] Supply - The ferromanganese production increased slightly last week, and the operating rate increased by 0.1% to 36.9% [8] Demand - The 247 - steel mill daily average pig iron output increased by 0.8 tons to 227.4 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased slightly [8] Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.8 tons to 39.4 tons [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a downward trend in Malaysian palm oil if it breaks below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are expected to be weakly viewed in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. In China, the fundamentals of soybean oil are positive as inventories are decreasing, and imports are expected to decline in January [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. After starting, it may relieve the shortage in South China, but there is a risk of further price decline in the futures market [1]. Cotton - ICE US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the Chinese market, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as faster sales progress, cost solidification, and expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to trade in a range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound in the short - term. In the Chinese market, sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile at a low level due to the expected supply surplus and cautious market sentiment [4]. Jujube - The spot market of jujube has weak trading, but the new - season warehouse receipt cost provides some support to the futures market. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction progress [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - supported supply. However, policy releases and pre - Spring Festival selling pressure may suppress prices [8]. Pork - Spot pork prices are back in a volatile pattern. The futures market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Although there is some support from secondary fattening, the overall supply in January is relatively loose [10]. Meal - US soybeans have a technical rebound, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American production expectations still suppress the market. In China, soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short - term [13]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs may ease as the number of laying hens is expected to decrease. Although the market sentiment is positive due to approaching Spring Festival stocking, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to be volatile at a low level [15]. 3. Summary by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On January 5, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread (2605) increased by 12.47% to - 632 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2605) decreased by 3.02% to 1188 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.98% to 64.64 cents per pound [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.82% to 14.72 cents per pound [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. Jujube - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the price of the main contract jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the first - grade spot price remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On January 5, 2026, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.86% to 2310 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the Changchun spot price remained unchanged at 2570 yuan/ton [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of pork 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Henan spot price decreased by 4.10% to 12850 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price decreased by 1.15% to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the egg 03 contract increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan per 500KG, and the price of the egg 04 contract increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan per 500KG [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan per catty, and the egg - chick price remained unchanged at 2.80 yuan per chick [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Short - term cost support (stable coal prices) and de - stocking expectations drive the market to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. The port inventory is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in the first quarter, while the inland market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand [3]. Polyolefins - For PP, the valuation of marginal devices is still low, but there are few planned overhauls. If there are no overhauls from January to March, the pressure on the 05 contract will be relatively large. For PE, the supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving. Overall, the supply increases and the demand decreases in January, and the overall pressure is still relatively large [6]. Urea - The short - term high - supply pattern is difficult to change. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material procurement intention is suppressed. The inventory continues to be destocked, which supports the price. The market is boosted by export expectations and geopolitical impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have weak short - term drivers and continue to oscillate at a low level. Styrene is supported in the short term but has limited rebound space due to downstream resistance and cost factors [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to show a trend of weakening steadily. PVC prices are expected to oscillate and weaken due to the excess supply - demand pattern [10]. Natural Rubber - There is a long - short game in the short - term natural rubber market, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions [11]. LPG No clear overall view provided in the document about the future trend of LPG. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a situation of weak downstream demand and increasing inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Glass has different situations in different regions, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening demand [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA are expected to have a weaker supply - demand situation in the first quarter. MEG has a large inventory accumulation expectation. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip supply and demand both decrease, and it follows the cost side [17]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the medium - and long - term supply surplus pressure suppresses oil prices. It is expected that Brent oil prices will fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel in the short term [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased slightly, while the MA59 spread increased significantly. The prices of some spot varieties increased, and regional spreads decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, and some downstream operating rates increased, while the MTO device operating rate decreased [3]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased slightly. Some spot prices increased, and the base differentials changed [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, while the PE social inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, and the powder operating rate increased [6]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, and the spot price increased. The spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory and port inventories decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production increased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some related products changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed, and the domestic pure benzene supply increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries changed, and the overall supply and demand pattern of pure benzene was weak [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot decreased to varying degrees, and the export profits changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand of downstream industries was weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some spot varieties increased, and the base differential and inter - month spreads changed [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased, and the warehouse - out rate and warehouse - in rate changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in some regions changed, and the tire operating rates decreased [11]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, and PG2604 increased slightly, and the spreads between contracts and the base differential changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio decreased [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures and spot changed slightly, and the base differential increased [16]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory and soda ash factory inventories increased, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output decreased, and the downstream demand for soda ash was weak [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some upstream raw materials changed [17]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of some polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees changed [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the overall polyester industry operating rate situation was complex [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the spreads between contracts and different varieties changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand fundamentals, price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies for different commodities based on macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical events, and industry - specific factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: Strong macro and policy expectations support the price, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract operating in the range of 23,200 - 24,400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Methanol**: The port price is strong, and the basis is maintained. The market is expected to be in a strong - side shock pattern in the short term. The strategy is to buy low for the 05 contract (2100 - 2350) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the expectation of inventory structure tightness and steel mill restocking, the price is expected to be in a short - term shock - strengthening trend. The short - term strategy is to try short - term long positions, with the range reference of 770 - 840 [4]. - **Apple**: Due to the scarcity of high - quality apples and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples, the short - term market is in a game. If there is no significant improvement in consumption during the Spring Festival stocking season, the price may fall after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to combine long positions with put options for protection [5]. - **Silver**: The continuous tightening of inventory boosts the price. In the high - volatility market, it is recommended to maintain a light - position low - buying strategy and use options to lock in profits in a timely manner [7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market had a good start, with major indexes breaking through previous highs. It is recommended to continue to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [7][8][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Concerns about supply and the strengthening of the equity market put pressure on bond futures. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, focus on positive arbitrage for the spot - futures strategy, and tend to steepen the curve for the curve strategy [11][12]. - **Precious Metals**: The weakening of the US economy and geopolitical conflicts boost precious metals. It is expected that the price will maintain high volatility in January, and it is recommended to pay attention to the long - volatility strategy and allocate on dips [13][15][16]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about the stability of metal supply drive up the price. The medium - to long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated to some extent. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, with the main contract focusing on the support at 95,500 - 96,000 [18][21][22]. - **Alumina**: The supply is continuously loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash - cost line. The main contract is in the range of 2,600 - 2,950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and sell short on rallies in the medium term [22][24]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term buying sentiment is high, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening. The price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract in the range of 23,200 - 24,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions on rallies and build long positions on pullbacks [24][26][27]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is mainly driven by cost. It is expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 22,400 - 23,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage of going long AD03 and short AL03 [27][29]. - **Zinc**: The price is rising, and the spot is at a premium. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock - strengthening trend. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support at 23,300 - 23,400, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [30][33]. - **Tin**: Affected by news and sentiment, the price is in a strong - side shock. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the macro and supply - side recovery [34][38]. - **Nickel**: Driven by the expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia, the price is expected to maintain a strong - side operation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 130,000 - 138,000. Pay attention to the possible pullback after the news is digested [39][41]. - **Stainless Steel**: The strong expectation and weak reality are in a continuous game. The price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main contract in the range of 12,800 - 13,500. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and the downstream restocking [42][45]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the price is expected to be in a strong - side shock. It is recommended to wait and see due to the increased volatility, and pay attention to the breakthrough around 130,000 [46][49]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the subsequent production reduction and price adjustment acceptance [50][52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock, and pay attention to the implementation of production reduction [52][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price maintains a shock trend. The rebar fluctuates in the range of 3,000 - 3,200, and the hot - rolled coil fluctuates in the range of 3,150 - 3,350. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 3,000 for rebar and 3,150 for hot - rolled coil [54][55]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to be in a short - term shock - strengthening trend, with the short - term strategy of trying short - term long positions, and the range reference of 770 - 840 [56][59]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is falling. It is recommended to sell short on rallies for the unilateral strategy and conduct an arbitrage of going long coking coal and short coke [60][64]. - **Coke**: The price is falling, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. It is recommended to sell short the 2605 contract on rallies for the unilateral strategy and conduct an arbitrage of going long coking coal and short coke [65][67]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the price is expected to be in a range shock, with the range reference of 5,500 - 5,800 [68][70]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore supports the price, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the reference range of 5,700 - 6,000 [71][75]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The global easing pattern remains unchanged, and the domestic and foreign markets maintain a range shock. The short - term trend is shock - strengthening [76][77]. - **Hog**: After the holiday, the demand declines, and the price is in a small - range shock. The short - term is expected to be in a consolidation [79][80]. - **Corn**: There is a game between the reluctance to sell and policy supply. The price is expected to be in a shock, and pay attention to the policy implementation and farmers' selling mentality [81][82]. - **Sugar**: The supply outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock and weakening trend. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rally strategy [83][85]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is in a bottom - shock, and the domestic price is relatively strong. The short - term is expected to maintain a shock - strengthening pattern [86]. - **Egg**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [89]. - **Oil**: Palm oil may face a downward risk after a short - term rise. Soybean oil is expected to be in a shock adjustment, and rapeseed oil is not recommended to be overly bullish [90][91][93]. - **Jujube**: The trading is light, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking and the planting area in 2026 [94]. - **Apple**: There is a game between the scarcity of good apples and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples. If the Spring Festival consumption is not improved, the price may fall after the festival. It is recommended to combine long positions with put options [95][96]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation is high, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. It is expected to be in a short - term weak - side shock. The short - term is in a high - level shock at 7,000 - 7,500, the medium - term strategy is to buy low, and the PX5 - 9 is in a low - level positive arbitrage [97][98]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is good, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term. The short - term is in a shock at 4,800 - 5,200, the medium - term strategy is to buy low, and the TA5 - 9 is in a low - level positive arbitrage [99][100]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, and it is recommended to shrink the spread on rallies [101][102]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand will both decline in January, and the cost support is relatively strong. The PR processing fee has limited upside space. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fee on rallies [103][104]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The price is under pressure in January. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options of EG2605 on rallies and conduct a reverse arbitrage on the EG5 - 9 on rallies [105]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation improves slightly, but the high - inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to continue the low - level shock, and the BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 [106][107]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to short the EB02/03 around 6,800 and shrink the EB processing fee on rallies [108][109]. - **LLDPE**: The market covers short positions, and the basis strengthens. It is recommended to go long the 2605 contract in the short term [110][111]. - **PP**: The basis is weak, and the price rises slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit after the release of maintenance information [112]. - **Methanol**: The port price is strong, and the basis is maintained. It is recommended to buy low the 05 contract (2100 - 2350) [112]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures rebound strongly, and the spot price is stable with a slight decline. It is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will show a stable - to - weak trend [113][115]. - **PVC**: The supply is marginally loose, and the high - price trading is light. The price is expected to shock and weaken [116]. - **Soda Ash**: The short - term inventory is decreasing, and the price has certain support. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair and the improvement of the sales rate support the price. It is expected to continue the bottom - shock and strengthening trend. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119][120]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is a short - term game between long and short. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [120][123]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the BR follows the commodity fluctuations. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 11,200 - 12,000 in the short term [123][125].

Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views - In the precious metals market, the gold market has completed its correction. Future market attention may shift to the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical situations in South America. Platinum and palladium prices may gradually stabilize, with the platinum price rising due to strong overseas markets. Palladium, with a relatively weaker fundamental situation, may follow the trend. The platinum-palladium ratio is expected to rise, presenting a hedging arbitrage opportunity. Silver may face a pullback risk due to global commodity index rebalancing, and investors are advised to maintain a light long position and use options to lock in profits [3] - In the container shipping industry, the freight rates for European and US routes have increased, with significant growth on the US - West route. The fundamental data shows that the global container shipping capacity supply remains stable, while port - related indicators and overseas economic data present a mixed picture [5] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Difference Data**: F, H, IC, and IM have different current - spot price differences and inter - period price differences, with varying changes compared to the previous day and percentile rankings in different time frames. There are also cross - variety ratios such as IC/IF, IC/IH, etc., with corresponding changes and percentile rankings [1] Bond Futures - **Basis and Spread Data**: TS, TF, T, and TL have different basis values, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, with corresponding changes compared to the previous day and percentile rankings since listing [2] Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures**: AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts all declined in price, with varying decline rates [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Contracts for COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium all rose in price, with varying increase rates [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of London gold and London silver rose, while the spot prices of platinum and palladium declined. The prices of gold T + D and silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also declined [3] - **Basis and Ratio**: There are different basis values and cross - variety ratios among various precious metals, with corresponding changes [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield, and the US dollar index all changed slightly, while the on - shore RMB exchange rate declined slightly [3] - **Inventory and Holdings**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the holdings of SPRD gold ETF and SLV silver ETF all changed to different extents [3] Container Shipping Industry - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS for European and US - West routes increased, with a significant increase on the US - West route. The SCFI comprehensive index and the SCFI for US - West and US - East routes also increased, while the SCFI for the European route declined slightly [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The prices of EC2602 (main contract), EC2604, etc. changed slightly, and the basis of the main contract increased [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. Port - related indicators such as the port punctuality rate and port calls in Shanghai, and overseas economic data such as the euro - zone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index, and US manufacturing PMI all changed to different extents [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December, the caustic soda market declined comprehensively. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 718.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.57%. In Jiangsu, it was 826 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.77%. In January, the main contradiction in the caustic soda market is still supply - demand. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the trading strategy is to try shorting at high prices and set a stop - loss at the pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. - In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend under the dual influence of supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations. Although there was a phased rebound, it did not change the long - term weak pattern. The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and observe the upper pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, the price of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas decreased. The market was affected by factors such as high supply and weak demand from alumina. The price of liquid chlorine supported high - level production, which was negative for the price of caustic soda in Shandong [2]. - **Supply**: In December, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points. The monthly output was 373.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. The inventory pressure of caustic soda plants decreased slightly [24]. - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [28]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [54]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend. The price decline at the beginning of the month was due to high inventory and weak demand, and the subsequent rebound was driven by policy expectations and supply - side marginal changes, but the long - term weak pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.1399 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 4.28%. December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the downstream demand is weak [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [85]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [93]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, with an average export price of 589 US dollars/ton. The monthly export decreased by 11.78% month - on - month and increased by 29.64% year - on - year. The import volume was 15,700 tons, with an average import price of 708 US dollars/ton [110]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: After continuous decline, the alumina price has gradually stabilized, but the fundamental situation is still weak, with an oversupply situation in the domestic market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2650 - 2900 yuan in the short term [35]. Bauxite - **Market Situation**: The bauxite price is stable, and the inventory has been reduced to a certain extent [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The output of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has decreased [42]. Non - Aluminum Downstream - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream industries has declined, and the off - season is approaching [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Futures Index Spread - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various futures index spreads, including spot-futures spreads, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Bond Futures Basis and Spread - It shows the basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different bond futures, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals - Gold's price has adjusted, and the future market may focus on US economic data's impact on Fed policies and geopolitical situations in South America. Platinum and palladium's trends may stabilize, with platinum's price center rising. Palladium follows, and the platinum - palladium ratio may rise for potential arbitrage. Silver may face short - term callback risks due to index rebalancing, and it's recommended to maintain a light - long position and use options to lock in profits [3]. Container Shipping Industry - The settlement price indices of container shipping routes have shown different degrees of increase. Futures prices of container shipping contracts have minor fluctuations, and the basis of the main contract has changed. Fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic data are also presented [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Futures Index Spread - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: F spot - futures spread is - 30.14, H is - 6.13, IC is - 102.77, and IM is - 159.08, with different historical quantiles and changes compared to the previous day [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for various futures, like F, H, IC, and IM, show different values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Bond Futures Basis and Spread - **Basis**: TS basis is - 0.0070, TF is 1.7497, T is 0.1067, and TL is 0.0182, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: For different bond futures, inter - delivery spreads between different quarters have their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2602 contract closed at 977.56 yuan/g, down 0.74%; AG2602 at 17074 yuan/kg, down 5.88%; PT2606 at 527.25 yuan/g, down 10.61%; PD2606 at 425.20 yuan/g, down 4.97% [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 4341.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.23%; COMEX silver at 72.27 dollars/ounce, up 1.81%; NYMEX platinum at 2161.80 dollars/ounce, up 4.43%; NYMEX palladium at 1695.50 dollars/ounce, up 2.08% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4332.51 dollars/ounce, up 0.33%; London silver at 72.82 dollars/ounce, up 1.74%; spot platinum at 2132.00 dollars/ounce, down 4.22%; spot palladium at 1641.00 dollars/ounce, down 1.14%. Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D at 974.39 yuan/g, down 0.80%; silver T + D at 17059 yuan/kg, down 5.85%; platinum 9995 at 512 yuan/g, down 9.49% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.17, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 15, etc., with their changes and historical quantiles [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 60.08, down 1.56%; SHFE gold/silver is 57.25, up 5.46%, etc. [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.19%, up 0.2%; 2 - year is 3.47%, unchanged; 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.94%, up 0.5%. Dollar index is 98.46, up 0.21%; on - shore RMB exchange rate is 6.9699, down 0.15% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 97704 kg, unchanged; SHFE silver inventory is 691638 kg, down 8.48%; COMEX gold inventory is 36402970 ounces, up 0.41%; COMEX silver inventory is 449773368 ounces, up 0.08%. SPDR gold ETF holdings are 1065 tons, down 0.51%; SLV silver ETF holdings are 16444 tons, unchanged [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) is 1742.64 points, up 9.66%; SCFIS (US West route) is 1301.41 points, up 36.69%. SCFI composite index is 1552.92 points, up 3.08%; SCFI (Europe) is 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.33%; SCFI (US West) is 1992 dollars/FEU, up 11.91%; SCFI (US East) is 2846 dollars/FEU, up 7.32% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 (main) is 1801.3 points, up 0.35%; EC2604 is 1166.0 points, up 0.50%; EC2506 is 1367.9 points, down 0.15%; EC2508 is 1500.0 points, down 0.01%; EC2510 is 1060.0 points, up 0.38%; EC2512 is 1297.0 points, down 0.84%. The basis of the main contract is - 58.7, down 11.82% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3369.00 million TEU, unchanged. Shanghai port on - time rate is 40.00%, down 18.50%; port calls in Shanghai are 345.00, up 5.83%. Monthly export amount is 3303.51 billion dollars, up 8.23%. Eurozone composite PMI is 51.90 points, down 1.70%; EU consumer confidence index is - 13.70, down 0.74%; US manufacturing PMI is 48.20, down 1.03%. G7 group's OECD composite leading indicator is 100.57 points, up 0.06% [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月5日 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的墓差水平排序 免责声明 体报告内容德想必获语于部门发射竞再找后认为可以的已公开资料，但"发挥的过应盛信息的高的危险无奈胜还不用任何保证。本报告诉郑伟员《责经不同说点。见解及分行方法，并不代表厂发销运度利润利和放立场，在印情况下，报告中国政策参考，报告中国政策参考，报律中国政策参考，报律中国政策参考，报律中国政策参考，报律中国政策部 或所难这的舰好不得动团团最好买卖的出价南你价，我没看看她比很，见谁自但。不表陆高密表这些却"就能的新定都"几到《专业人士」 版权队"发掘的所有，来经广觉脱贫声面段仅，但凡人不得的年都是近行后回到女就该下。复制。知引用、消费，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉，我觉得出处少了 发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 叶倩宁 | 0.11% | 55.80% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 6 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5678 | 5672 | 5920 | 0 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The current log futures market has small fluctuations. With low inventory and an expected decrease in future shipments, some spot prices have been adjusted upwards. However, the weak demand limits the overall upward adjustment space. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers, so the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 31, the price of log 2601 was 737.0, down 19.0 or -2.51% from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.0, unchanged; log 2605 was 786.5, down 1.0 or -0.13%. The 01 - 03 spread was -39.0, down 19.0; the 01 - 05 spread was -49.5, down 18.0. The 03 - contract basis was -36.0, unchanged; the 01 - contract basis was 3.0, up 19.0 [2] - Spot prices of various types of logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on December 31 compared to the previous day. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) also remained unchanged [2] - On January 4, the RMB - to - US - dollar exchange rate was 6.971, down 0.01 from the previous day; the import theoretical cost was 768.57 yuan, down 1.25 yuan [2] Supply - In November, the port throughput was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters or -6.01% from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 or -9.26% [2] - As of December 26, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 254 million cubic meters, down 6 million cubic meters or -2.31% from the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 52.1 million cubic meters, down 9.4 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it was 61.52 million cubic meters, down 15.30% [2][3] Demand - As of December 26, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.83 million cubic meters, down 0.49 million cubic meters or -8% from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.34 million cubic meters, down 0.55 million cubic meters or -16%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.52 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters or -3% [3] Forecast of Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, 15 ships of New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships or 67% week - on - week. The total arrival volume is 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters or 66.8% week - on - week [3]