Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the methanol industry is a narrow - range fluctuation [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central price of methanol is expected to be slightly higher than that in Q4 2025 but not reach the level of H1 2025, showing seasonal fluctuations. One can focus on the low - buying opportunities in the 03 and 05 contracts [2] - In 2025, the methanol industry had significant differentiation in various aspects. In 2026, the supply is affected by overseas factors, the cost is supported by coal price increase, the demand growth may slow down, and the inventory will show seasonal fluctuations [103][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (2024.12 - 2025.12) - In Dec 2024, methanol prices rose from 2,500 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton due to Iranian methanol plant shutdowns and reduced imports [6] - From Jan - Feb 2025, downstream MTO profit was eroded, ports started to accumulate inventory, and port prices declined while inland prices rose [6] - In Mar 2025, the arbitrage window closed, and the market oscillated due to the restart of plants [6] - In Apr 2025, methanol prices dropped significantly due to the Sino - US tariff war and expected overseas supply recovery [6] - From May - Dec 2025, prices were affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, geopolitical conflicts, plant maintenance, and inventory changes [7][8] 2. Supply Side 2.1 Capacity - China's methanol production capacity accounts for 58% of the global total, approaching 103 million tons/year in 2025. The new production capacity in 2025 is 8.2 million tons/year, and the national production capacity will reach 108 million tons/year with a 4.8% year - on - year increase [10][11] - In 2026, the new production capacity is expected to be 8.93 million tons/year, with a growth rate of about 5%. The future 5 - year capacity growth rate is expected to decline [11] 2.2 Domestic Production and Operating Rate - As of early December 2025, the domestic methanol production was 95.3 million tons, and the annual production is expected to reach 100 million tons, a nearly 10% year - on - year increase [19] - The operating rate is expected to be close to 90% in 2025, showing a significant upward trend for two consecutive years [22] 2.3 Overseas Production - Overseas methanol capacity growth rate is greater than demand growth rate, and it is in a state of relative over - supply. In 2025, the overseas capacity is about 77.75 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 4.5%, and it is expected to be 4.2% in 2026 [25] - In the next 3 years, there will be about 6.75 million tons/year of new overseas production capacity [25] 2.4 Imports - Iranian methanol (including Iran, Oman, and the UAE) accounts for about 50% of China's methanol imports, significantly affecting China's imports. In 2025, imports were affected by the Iran - Israel conflict, with a decline in June - July and a new high after August [30][31] - Non - Iranian imports increased in the second half of 2025, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the Americas. In the next 2 - 3 years, China's imports are expected to continue growing [31][32] 3. Cost Side 3.1 Coal in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, coal prices declined due to strong supply and weak demand, with inventory accumulation. In the second half, prices rebounded due to supply tightening and demand improvement [36][40] 3.2 Coal Outlook in 2026 - Supply growth is under pressure due to limited capacity increment, strict policy control, complex mining conditions, and limited import growth [48][50] - Demand has growth potential, with electricity demand remaining stable and non - electricity demand expected to improve [50] - Coal prices are expected to have a steadily rising central price and fluctuate within a range [50] 4. Demand Side 4.1 MTO - In 2025, three integrated MTO plants were put into operation. The MTO industry's profit first decreased and then increased, with the operating rate fluctuating between 80% - 90% and an 18% year - on - year increase in production [52][57] - In 2026, multiple MTO plants are planned to be put into operation, bringing new demand for methanol. However, due to over - capacity in the polyolefin industry, MTO's profit will be under pressure [62][65] 4.2 Traditional Downstream - In 2025, traditional downstream industries showed a "differentiated operation and profit - pressured" pattern. MTBE performed best, while acetic acid's growth slowed, formaldehyde's profit was thin, and dimethyl ether shrank [69][71] - In 2026, new capacity will continue to be put into operation, but profit and operating rate will be under pressure, and the demand for methanol will have limited elasticity [84][86] 5. Profit Side - In 2025, the profitability of coal - based methanol was high in the first half and declined in the second half. Gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol had weak profitability throughout the year [87] - In 2026, the cost side may strengthen, and the methanol industry's profit will be restricted by downstream demand, import pressure, and high inventory [93][95] 6. Inventory Side - In 2025, inland methanol inventory was at a relatively low level, while port inventory was at a historical high, first decreasing and then increasing [96] - In 2026, inventory is expected to first decrease and then increase, with the port inventory change mainly driven by overseas supply fluctuations. Inland inventory is expected to remain low [101][102]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据日报 | 指标 | | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | | ===== 16/17 | ====== 17/18 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ====== 18/19 | == | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 97 57 | -3 7 | 2500 2000 1500 | ----- 21/22 | == | == | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | 日照 | 17 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 57 | | -500 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | 东莞 | 17 | 7 | | | | M1-M5 | | | | | 湛江 | 57 | | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market in 2026 faces significant oversupply pressure. Demand growth is expected to slow down notably, with the restocking demands in Europe and the US diverging and having limited elasticity. Although emerging markets remain resilient, they cannot fully offset the weakness in traditional markets. The supply side will see continuous release of new capacity. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, it may exacerbate the global oversupply of shipping capacity. Coupled with the delivery pressure of large - scale vessels in 2026, the annual supply - demand gap will widen further. Policy risks are the key variables, and the ability to fulfill cargo volumes will be the core factor affecting freight rate fluctuations. Overall, the freight rate center will be under pressure in 2026, with limited upside potential during the peak season. Consider short - selling opportunities in the April and October contracts at high levels [3][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in 2025 - **January 2025**: The market continued the upward trend from the end - of - year peak season in 2024, but the actual cargo volume fell short of expectations. With redundant supply (a 10% increase in weekly average capacity compared to the previous month) and the rising expectation of the Red Sea route resumption, the EC2504 contract price dropped from 1722 points to 1163 points, a cumulative decline of 32.4% [7] - **Around the Spring Festival in 2025**: Shipping companies expanded the scope of sailings cancellations to stabilize freight rates. The market price stopped falling and stabilized. The market expected a post - festival price increase, and the EC2504 contract price stood firmly above 1300 points. After the Spring Festival, shipping companies announced a freight rate increase in March, driving the contract price from a discount to a premium and starting a unilateral upward trend [7] - **After the Spring Festival - early April 2025**: Despite continuous price - hike signals from shipping companies, the actual implementation was poor. It was the traditional off - season, and the cargo volume recovery was below expectations. The capacity pressure from the concentrated delivery of new ships emerged (cumulative delivery in the first three quarters exceeded 300,000 TEU). The EC main contract fluctuated widely between 1500 - 1700 points, maintaining a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [8] - **April - May 2025**: On April 2, the US government announced additional tariffs on China, causing a sharp drop in cargo volume on the US - West route. The capacity originally allocated to the US route was diverted to the European route, worsening the supply - demand imbalance. The EC2506 contract price fell from 1700 points to 1530 points, a 10% decline, and market panic spread [8] - **Mid - May - late June 2025**: The EC contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. As the Sino - US trade negotiation atmosphere improved, there was a rush of bookings on the US - West route. However, the US - line freight rate was weak, which affected the European - line market sentiment. The actual situation deviated from the market's previous expectations, pushing the EC contract price down [9] - **Late June - late July 2025**: The container shipping European - line futures market rose overall. The weighted index climbed from 1500 points to 1800 points. The positive sentiment in the commodity market and the tight supply - demand situation during the peak season drove the price up. The main contract smoothly transitioned from the 08 contract to the 10 contract, and the 12 contract also rose, forming a multi - contract upward pattern [10] - **Late July - late September 2025**: The market declined continuously. The off - season characteristics became obvious in mid - July, and the spot freight rate started to fall. The trading logic of the 10 contract shifted to be fundamentally driven. The 10 contract and far - month contracts entered a downward channel. In mid - August, the spot market decline intensified, and the 10 contract deviated from the 12 and 02 contracts. In the traditional off - season, the spot market price war emerged, and the 10 contract fell to below 1100 points. The 12 contract oscillated, and the 02 contract's price center rose slightly [11] - **September - end of November 2025**: Shipping companies repeatedly announced freight rate increases, but the actual implementation was weak. The EC12 contract price rose to 1960 points and then fell back to 1550 points. The rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict accelerated the discount process of far - month contracts, and the market worried more about the oversupply in 2026 [12] - **December 2025**: On the spot side, the PA alliance accumulated a large amount of cargo through low - price strategies in the first half of the month, and the blank sailings in the last two weeks eased the pressure. The market quotation stabilized at $2400/FEU, and the freight rate center increased by over $200 in late December. Leading shipping companies coordinated to support prices, boosting market confidence. The European seasonal stocking demand increased cargo volume, and the capacity utilization rate improved. The weekly average capacity on the European route shrank to 285,000 TEU in late December. The slow progress of the Red Sea route resumption did not add new negative factors to the supply side. The 2602 contract showed a bullish tendency, but overall, it was still a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [12][13] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Static Capacity Supply - The supply pressure in the container shipping market remains huge. After a decline from 8 million TEU to 6 million TEU from mid - 2023 to mid - 2024, the total container ship orders reached a new high of 9.9 million TEU due to the Red Sea crisis. Orders are mainly for ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU, and the order volume of ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU (mostly for the European route) increased sharply from 960,000 TEU to 4 million TEU. The order volume of 12000 - 16999 TEU ships decreased, with new orders of 764,000 TEU and deliveries of 1.118 million TEU this year, while the 17000 + TEU ships had new orders of 1.841 million TEU and deliveries of 254,000 TEU [14][16] 3.2.2 Dynamic Capacity Supply - The market focuses more on short - to - medium - term capacity supply, which is affected by shipping schedules (capacity deployment), idle capacity, sailing speed, and port and canal congestion. - **Capacity Deployment**: The 17 routes priced in the SCFIS European line are operated by different alliances and companies. The weekly average capacity deployment on the European route in the third and fourth quarters increased by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU compared to last year, indicating sufficient supply [24] - **Idle Capacity and Sailing Speed**: The idle capacity is close to 780,000 TEU, at a normal level, and has little impact on freight rates. The sailing speed is slightly faster than the economic speed and has decreased compared to last year as the new ships have met the demand [27] - **In - Port Capacity**: The in - port capacity in European ports was relatively high in the first half of the year due to strikes but has returned to normal since late May, without seriously affecting the supply chain [33] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Tariff Issues - **2025 Performance**: In April, the Trump administration introduced "reciprocal tariffs" on China, initially at 34% and later raised to 145%, causing a more than 30% decline in China's exports to the US from April to May. China counter - imposed tariffs on US imports, initially at 84% and later raised to 125%. After a trade consultation in May, the retaliatory tariffs were temporarily suspended, and a 10% base tariff plus a 20% fentanyl - specific tariff was implemented until November 2026 [39] - **2026 Outlook**: High tariffs have significantly reduced demand on the US route, with the SCFI US - line freight rate down 40% year - on - year. Shipping companies have shifted capacity to other markets, intensifying the global supply - demand imbalance. China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America increased by 10% - 15%, and the export proportion of products like machinery, electronics, and new - energy vehicles has risen. The US restocking demand may be delayed until the second quarter with limited elasticity, and the EU's anti - subsidy investigations and green trade barriers will continue to pressure the market. The demand growth in the global container shipping market may slow down [48][49] 3.3.2 Red Sea Issues - **2025 Situation**: A partial cease - fire agreement in the Israel - Palestine conflict in October led to CMA CGM's trial resumption of the Red Sea route, and the Suez Canal Authority promoted related negotiations and offered toll discounts. However, due to security concerns from the Houthi rebels and pirate activities, the annual resumption rate of the Red Sea route in 2025 was only 30% of the pre - pandemic level. Ship detours around the Cape of Good Hope increased the voyage by 30%, reducing effective capacity by 30% and increasing fuel costs by 40%. The SCFI European - line freight rate dropped 50% year - on - year, with limited rebound during the peak season [52][53] - **2026 Outlook**: If the cease - fire in Gaza continues until the first quarter of 2026, the Red Sea route may resume in March. If the resumption is successful, the global container shipping oversupply will intensify by 30%, the weekly average capacity on the European route will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU, and the peak - season freight rate center may drop by over 30%. If the detour continues, the supply growth will slow to 5%, but the demand will still be pressured by the economic divergence in Europe and the US, and the freight rate center will face downward pressure [54][55]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Today, the methanol market showed a stable and slightly upward trend overall, with regional price differentiation. Local prices in Inner Mongolia continued to decline, the Shaanxi market remained stable, and quotes in Shandong, Taicang and other places remained stable [3]. - The main methanol futures adjusted narrowly. Coastal spot prices weakened with the market, and the market was mainly based on on - demand procurement, with a dull trading atmosphere. The traditional downstream demand did not show obvious improvement, and industry participants were cautious about entering the market, mostly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [3]. - The inland market had limited overall fluctuations, and no information was obtained about the traditional downstream demand. Affected by winter rain and snow, freight rates were strong recently. Some manufacturers adjusted quotes to cover freight costs, and there were price drops and auction failures in some manufacturers' auctions during the day [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Spot Market - In the spot market, the current prices in Taicang, Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Guangdong, Shandong Dongying and Henan were 2142, 1908, 2045, 2105, 2200 and 2135 respectively, with changes of - 13, - 17, + 10, - 5, - 25 and 0 compared with the previous values [1]. Futures Market - For futures contracts, the current prices of MA2601 and MA2605 were 2132 and 2174 respectively, with increases of 0.99% and 0.83% compared with the previous values [1]. Taicang Transaction Price Range - The transaction price range of Taicang on the 19th was: for the whole day, the spot was 2135 - 2140, 01 + 23 ~ 25; in the afternoon, it was 2135 - 2145, 01 + 18 + 23; in the middle of the day, it was 2145 - 2155, 01 + 35; in the morning, it was 2160 - 2170, 01 + 48 + 50 [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the steel and iron ore industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the total demand for steel may remain stable, while the supply of iron ore will continue to be loose, which may lead to a downward shift in the cost - price center and affect steel prices. Attention should be paid to the seasonal and structural contradiction opportunities in the industry [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Price Trend - In the first half of 2025, the price center of the black - plate sector declined. After the supply of raw material varieties became more abundant, the decline was greater than that of finished products. Carbon - element and cost - priced varieties led the decline. From June to July, the "anti - involution" concept drove up the prices of coal - related products, and the sector rebounded, but the rebound was short - lived. After August, as the concept cooled down, the industry contradictions returned to a weak balance, and the sector prices oscillated until the end of the year [9] - The annual average price of iron ore in 2025 decreased compared with 2024, which is in line with the trend of supply - demand balance. The price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply - demand stories and macro events such as Australian cyclones, rumors of steel production control policies, the Sino - US tariff war, and the "anti - involution" policy [18][19] 1.2 Spread and Basis Review - In the spot - futures dimension, the basis fluctuation range narrowed, and the futures premium structure appeared periodically. For varieties with weak spot demand, futures premium before the delivery month would bring greater selling and delivery pressure. In terms of variety spreads, plates were more resilient than building materials, and iron - element varieties were stronger than carbon - element varieties, but the iron/carbon price ratio fluctuated greatly during the "anti - involution" trading period from June to July [24] - The monthly spread structure of weak varieties maintained a relatively stable Contango structure. The cross - month spread of iron ore tended to be flat, and the positive spread structure was weakened. The basis did not show a significant positive spread pattern, only showing periodic positive spreads in late February and April, and a periodic negative spread under the "anti - involution" situation in July [24][26] 2. Steel Demand Analysis 2.1 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the total steel demand was weakly stable, with the average apparent demand of five steel products at 852, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.7%. Downstream demand was differentiated, with building materials being the biggest drag. Real estate had a greater negative impact than infrastructure, while manufacturing and exports brought direct and indirect incremental steel demand [52] - In the real estate dimension, the sales volume and price of commercial housing continued to decline in 2025. If the real - estate - related credit cycle recovers in the first half of 2026, the year - on - year decline in new - house sales volume for the whole year may narrow from about 8% in 2025 to about 5%. The marginal negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand may weaken [56][57] - In the infrastructure dimension, infrastructure investment improved in 2025, and the policy in 2026 is expected to be more positive. However, due to the transformation of the economic structure, the incremental steel demand driven by infrastructure investment alone will be limited [62] - In the manufacturing dimension, although manufacturing offset the decline in real estate and infrastructure in 2025, there were signs of a slowdown in investment in the second half of the year. In 2026, the risk of a decline in industrial product demand due to the decline in fixed - asset investment in the first quarter needs attention, and the demand - driving effect of the manufacturing industry may slow down [68] 2.2 Exports - In 2025, China's steel exports continued to rise, with an estimated annual export volume of 115 million tons, exceeding the historical high in 2015. The high - volume exports were due to price advantages, with the average export price decreasing by 10.3% year - on - year [74] - China achieved better - than - expected steel exports in 2025 through "regional transfer + variety optimization". In the future, the steel production capacity in ASEAN may expand, which may replace some of China's export shares. The new export license system will promote the optimization of China's steel export varieties in the long - term, and the steel export volume in 2026 is expected to remain high, but the marginal increment will decline [80][88] 3. Steel Supply Analysis 3.1 Overseas Supply - From January to October 2025, the global blast - furnace pig iron production outside China decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while the crude steel production increased slightly. The decrease in China's crude steel production was the main factor affecting the global decline, while the increase in India's production supported the growth of overseas production [92] - In 2026, the global steel supply is expected to increase slightly, with the increment coming from regions outside China, especially India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the regions after the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire [93] 3.2 Domestic Supply - In 2025, the production profit of domestic steel mills improved, and the production enthusiasm and output increased. In 2026, the steel supply will continue to be "demand - driven", and the product structure will continue to tilt towards manufacturing or industrial materials. It is expected that the steel output in 2026 will be stable or slightly decrease, with an increase in the proportion of electric - arc - furnace steel and stable pig - iron output [99][114] 4. Iron Ore Supply Analysis 4.1 Overall Supply in 2025 - In 2025, the global supply increment of iron ore basically met expectations, but there were differences in the shipment rhythm and regional structure. As of the 50th week of 2025, the global iron ore shipment increased by 45.027 million tons year - on - year [116] 4.2 Supply Outlook in 2026 - In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to expand. The new production capacity of the four major mines will mainly come from Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale. Non - mainstream mines (excluding Simandou) will have an increment of about 10 million tons [116] 4.3 Four Major Mines - Vale: Multiple projects are in progress. The production target in 2026 is raised to 340 - 360 million tons, with an estimated increment of about 10 million tons [130] - Rio Tinto: The Pilbara iron ore shipment target in 2026 remains unchanged, and the equity increment of Simandou iron ore is 5 - 10 million tons. The estimated increment in 2026 (excluding Simandou) is 5 million tons [131] - BHP: The 100% equity production in fiscal year 2026 is 284 - 296 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared with fiscal year 2025 [132] - FMG: The production and sales target in fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons. The estimated supply increment in 2026 is about 6 million tons [133] 4.4 Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream mines have different production capacities, and the total new production capacity in 2025 is expected to be 40 million tons (including Simandou, excluding India) [138] 4.5 Domestic Mines - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. The potential for domestic mine production increment exists, with an estimated increment of about 6 million tons in 2026 [138] 5. Summary and Outlook 5.1 Steel - In 2026, the demand for steel may remain stable, with the demand increment in the range of - 1% - 0%. The supply will continue to be "demand - driven", and the cost support will weaken, which is beneficial to the production profit of steel mills. The unilateral steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can be focused on for widening opportunities [144] - The estimated operating range of rebar futures prices is [2850, 3350], and that of hot - rolled coil futures prices is [2950, 3500] [145] 5.2 Iron Ore - In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to be in an oversupply situation. The demand for iron ore will remain stable or decline slightly. The price center of iron ore is expected to move down to 95 - 97 US dollars, with an operating range of [85, 110] [146]

· 黑色金属年度报告 | 焦煤焦炭：终归大海作波涛 | | --- | | 投资观点： 震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-12-22 | 年度报告 | 摘要： 2025 年焦煤市场呈现出供需边际改善的态势，然而市场价格却 明显下行。其核心在于，黑色产业链各环节并不存在明显的供给瓶颈， 市场正是通过价格下行来主动调节供需关系，即价格的下跌是促使供 需边际改善的原因，而非结果。对于 2026 年煤焦市场，需求端受钢 材市场拖累，预计钢材需求将维持持平或微降状态，进而传导至煤焦 需求端。供给方面，国内焦煤产量基本保持稳定，进口量则存在微幅 增长的不确定性，主要取决于国内外价差。不影响整体行情。总体来 看，煤焦供需关系有望维持整体平衡，价格波动的博弈焦点将集中在 煤矿生产政策的导向以及下游企业的补库节奏上。 从估值来说，2025 年上半年焦煤价格的低点极有可能成为未来 相当长一段时间内价格的底部支撑区域，但考虑到煤焦供给均不存在 硬性瓶颈，预计 2026 年焦煤价格的上涨空间仍将受到海外市场价格 水平的制约，下方则有蒙古煤长协价格支撑。焦炭炭价格方面，由于 焦化产能 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA prices rose due to cost support and good downstream polyester filament sales, and the market has factored in the positive supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA next year. Although PTA profit is under pressure, the economic benefits of integrated enterprises have improved significantly. The polyester load remains high, and demand is expected to be additionally supported by the cancellation of India's BIS certification. [2] - The price of ethylene glycol is difficult to get effective support due to the continuous decline of coal prices, and the market supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new plants. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream weaving and keep the overall demand outlook optimistic. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 429.4 yuan/barrel to 426.6 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan/barrel; PTA - SC increased from 1627.5 yuan/ton to 1781.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 154.35 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5216 to 1.5748, an increase of 0.0532. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 840 to 866, an increase of 26; PX - naphtha spread rose from 307 to 335, an increase of 28. [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4748 yuan/ton to 4882 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 4650 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG main contract futures price dropped from 3767 yuan/ton to 3738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price decreased from 3667 yuan/ton to 3633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load remained unchanged, at 86.48%, 74.77%, 60.43% and 88.41% respectively. [2] 3.3 Product Cash Flow and Sales - Among polyester filaments, the cash flow of POY, FDY and DTY decreased by 89, 119 and 74 respectively, and the sales volume increased by 248% to 294%. [2] - For polyester staple fibers, the cash flow decreased by 24, and the sales volume decreased by 1% to 75%. [2] - For polyester chips, the cash flow decreased by 9, and the sales volume decreased by 28% to 88%. [2] 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The plant stopped for maintenance around November 17. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes in supply disruptions or sudden demand increases, PTA plants maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. The spread between PX and mixed xylene has widened to $120, leading Korean manufacturers to cut STDP operations and plan to shut down relevant facilities in the second half of December. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises have improved economic benefits due to raw material self - sufficiency. New polyester installations have pushed the polyester load to a high level, PTA consumption is high, market inventory willingness has increased, and the basis has strengthened rapidly. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have medium - to - low inventories, so the willingness to cut production is low. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Data (Market Conditions) 1. Price Changes of Key Products - PTA spot price increased from 4650 to 4750, a change of 100; MEG internal - market price decreased from 3667 to 3633, a change of - 34; PTA closing price rose from 4748 to 4882, a change of 134; MEG closing price dropped from 3767 to 3738, a change of - 29; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6350 to 6400, a change of 50; short - fiber basis decreased from 140 to 121, a change of - 19; 2 - 3 spread increased from 12 to 16, a change of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5275; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1075 to 1125, a change of 50; East China water - bottle chip price increased from 5695 to 5708, a change of 13; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5695 to 5708, a change of 13; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5795 to 5808, a change of 13; outer - market water - bottle chip price increased from 755 to 765, a change of 10; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 491 to 430, a change of - 61; T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3920 to 3870, a change of - 50; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16290; cotton 328 price increased from 14750 to 14785, a change of 35; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1504 to 1458, a change of - 46; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7000 to 7030, a change of 30; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 596 to 552, a change of - 44; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7515 [2]. 2. Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 142 to 6292. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable with some increases, and the prices of traders were raised. There was more replenishment in the futures and spot markets, but downstream purchases were less, and the production and sales of factories were fair. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6180 - 6460 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), in the North China market was 6300 - 6580 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market was 6150 - 6400 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5720 - 5810 yuan/ton, and the average price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated strongly. The supply side mainly raised offers, the market trading atmosphere was light, downstream terminals were cautiously waiting and watching, and the market negotiation center rose [2]. 3. Load and Production - Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 72.00% to 92.00%, an increase of 20.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish on glass (FG) and soda ash (SA) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, leading to a continuous decline in prices and a compression of industrial profits. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward drive of prices, but the supply elasticity will increase significantly under the influence of profit compression and policies. The fundamentals of glass and soda ash will remain loose, and prices may be more affected by supply changes [3][85][86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Glass - In 2025, glass prices were under pressure and continued to decline. The annual average price of 5mm glass in the Shahe area was about 1,100 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. The price fluctuations were mainly divided into three stages: continuous decline from the beginning of the year to the end of June, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline under pressure in the fourth quarter. The futures price showed a contango structure, and the basis and inter - month spreads had obvious characteristics. The glass factory's profit was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [4][7][14] 3.1.2 Soda Ash - In 2025, the supply of soda ash was strong and the demand was weak, and the price center of gravity continued to move down. The annual average price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was about 1,286 yuan, a decrease of 32.2% compared with 2024. The price fluctuations mainly went through four stages: a slight rise before and after the Spring Festival, a sharp decline in the second quarter, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline and a new low in the fourth quarter. The basis and spreads fluctuated slightly, and the annual structure was in backwardation. The alkali factory's profit was under pressure and decreased [24][28][32] 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the glass supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase followed by a decline. The production profit was under pressure, and the industry clearing was slow. In 2026, the glass factory's production profit will continue to be under pressure, and the industry may accelerate the clearing. The daily melting volume and start - up rate are expected to decline, but the reduction may still be insufficient [42][43] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the glass demand was weak, with a slight improvement in stages. Real estate demand continued to decline, while manufacturing demand was resilient. In 2026, the overall demand will remain weakly stable, with real estate demand still under pressure and manufacturing demand maintaining a certain degree of support. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate [53][54][62] 3.3 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the soda ash supply was at a high level, and the new production capacity was put into operation. In 2026, the production capacity expansion will slow down, and the production capacity will start to clear in the medium and long term. The supply elasticity of alkali factories is relatively strong, and the price will continue to fluctuate greatly due to supply disturbances [64] 3.3.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the demand for soda ash was weakly stable, with a downward trend. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively good. In 2026, the demand for soda ash will still be an important driving factor. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken, but the overall demand still has strong resilience [74][75][84] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the downstream demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, resulting in an imbalance in fundamentals and a continuous decline in prices. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward space of glass and soda ash prices, and the industrial profits will continue to be under pressure. The prices may be more affected by supply changes, and the overall fluctuation range is limited [85][86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term bullish stance on the lithium carbonate industry [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Terminal demand (energy storage + new energy vehicles) is in the peak season, material production is basically flat, the social inventory transfer chain is smooth. The environmental assessment of the Shixiawo mine is in progress, and the supply pressure is alleviated. Demand provides mid - term support for lithium carbonate prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 97,650 with a rise of 100; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 95,050 with a rise of 100 [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 109,720 with a daily gain of 3.92%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 109,740 with a 3.94% gain; lithium carbonate 2603 is 109,940 with a 3.66% gain; lithium carbonate 2604 is 111,180 with a 3.52% gain; lithium carbonate 2605 is 111,400 with a 3.86% gain [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 1,318 with a drop of 8; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,825, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,835 with a rise of 10; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 10,425, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 11,800 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 40,285 with a rise of 25; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 163,400 with a rise of 100; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 146,300 with a rise of 100 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,600 with no change; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 13,750 with a decrease of 5,140; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 20 with an increase of 120; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 with an increase of 120 [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 110,425 tons with a decrease of 1,044 tons, including 18,090 tons in smelters (a decrease of 1,071 tons), 41,485 tons in downstream (a decrease of 1,253 tons), and 50,850 tons in others (an increase of 1,280 tons). The daily registered warehouse receipts are 15,511 tons with a decrease of 17,447 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 103,940 with a profit of - 7,653; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 100,023 with a profit of - 6,161 [3]