1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, with the gradual release of positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment may shift from relatively optimistic to cautious. The stock index may enter a volatile phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index. In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. It is recommended to choose the right time to go long and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs Interest Rate Products - DROO1 closed at 0.69 with a change of 1.32bp; DR007 closed at 1.46 with a change of - 4.67bp; GC001 closed at 1.32 with a change of 9.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.48 with a change of - 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a change of - 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.38 with a change of 0.01bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.57 with a change of 0.26bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79 with a change of - 1.84bp; 10 - year US treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.11 [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market. There were 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 500 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases, and 700 billion yuan in MLF maturities. So, the net injection in the open market was 900.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, there will be 2.068 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 337.3 billion, 475.3 billion, 557.7 billion, 342.6 billion, and 355.1 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 700 billion yuan in 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Index Futures - The closing prices and changes compared to the previous day of major stock indices: CSI 300 closed at 4641, down 1.47%; SSE 50 closed at 3012, down 1.15%; CSI 500 closed at 7331, down 0.74%; CSI 1000 closed at 7507, up 0.29%. The closing prices and changes of corresponding stock index futures: IF current - month contract closed at 4641, down 1.3%; IH current - month contract closed at 3017, down 1.0%; IC current - month contract closed at 7291, down 0.8%; IM current - month contract closed at 7440, unchanged [6] - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 139,862, up 1.8%; IF position was 271,131, up 0.1%; IH trading volume was 63,349, down 0.9%; IH position was 99,608, down 2.4%; IC trading volume was 145,316, down 13.7%; IC position was 254,465, down 2.2%; IM trading volume was 253,282, up 1.9%; IM position was 362,383, down 1.8% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.43% to 4640.7; SSE 50 fell 1.12% to 3011.6; CSI 500 rose 1% to 7331; CSI 1000 rose 1.18% to 7506.7. Among Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (4.3%), non - ferrous metals (2.6%), steel (2.6%), basic chemicals (2.5%), and comprehensive (2.3%) led the gains, while communication (- 3.6%), banking (- 2.2%), electronics (- 1.7%), building decoration (- 1.5%), and real estate (- 0.7%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 2.0894 trillion, 1.9329 trillion, 2.0592 trillion, 2.2042 trillion, and 2.0923 trillion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume increased by 462.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts was - 0.14%, 1.55%, 1.82%, and 2.30% respectively; the basis of IH was - 3.35%, - 0.94%, - 0.39%, and - 0.22% respectively; the basis of IC was 10.43%, 9.39%, 8.88%, and 9.22% respectively; the basis of IM was 17.17%, 14.33%, 12.04%, and 11.61% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the internal valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The market is expected to follow up on long orders to repair the crush spread, showing a volatile and upward trend. However, the current loose supply of domestic near - term soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height of the market. Attention should be paid to the driving evolution brought by subsequent Sino - US policies, adjustments in US Department of Agriculture reports, and South American weather changes [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang on October 31 was - 1, with a change of 23; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) was - 1, with a change of 23. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 78, with a change of 5. The M1 - 5 spread was 208, with a change of 13 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 46; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, with a change of 40; the main contract's disk spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 470, with a change of 22 [7] 3.2 Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may have room for downward adjustment, and the export expectation has room for upward adjustment. The supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight [7] - As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7] - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the far - month shipping schedule is slow [8] 3.3 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [8] - Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8] 3.5 Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the disk crush profit (yuan/ton), and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 are also presented in the report, with the Brazilian disk crush profit at - 248.00 yuan/ton and the premium change of - 15 cents per bushel [7] - Data on domestic port soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean inventory, major oil mill soybean meal inventory, major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and major oil mill operating rate over the years are also provided [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 中美元首会议结束，股指走势分化 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-11-3 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）回落至49.0%，较上月下降0.8个百分点，收缩态势有所加剧。从具体构成看，生产与需求两端同步走弱， | | 业盈利 | | 价格水平继续回调，企业仍处于主动去库存周期。同期，房地产市场下行压力依然存在，建筑业活动指数出现小幅回落。在非制造业领域，商 | | | | 务活动指数为50.1%，略升0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.0%，较前月下降0.6个百分点。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 宏观利好落地，有色板块先扬后抑 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-03 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 有色金属价格监测 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 02 PART TWO 铜（CU） 逻辑及策略 | | | | 铜产业链逻辑及策略 标题行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | 宏观因素 | 偏空 | （1）中美领导人于韩国会晤，双方确认吉隆坡磋商成果，当前来看，双方近期谈判取得的成效较为显著，短期中美贸易摩擦风 | | | | | 险有望进一步降温。（2）美联储如期降息25bp ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Stock Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: November 3, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Group 2: Market Review Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.81% at 3954.79 points, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.14%, ChiNext Index down 2.31%, North Securities 50 up 1.89%, Science and Technology Innovation 50 down 3.13%, Wind All A down 0.52%, Wind A500 down 1.4%, and CSI A500 down 1.24% [4] - A-share trading volume was 2.35 trillion yuan, compared with 2.46 trillion yuan the previous day [4] Index Details | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Volume (Billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 1692.86 | -1.15 | 3011.5547 | 6807.12 | | CSI 300 | 4640.6676 | -1.47 | 281.46 | 4755.88 | | CSI 1000 | - | 0.29 | 299.75 | 7506.6746 | [3] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (Million) | Put Option Volume (Million) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (Million) | Put Option Open Interest (Million) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2.60 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 7.28 | 2.86 | 0.39 | | CSI 300 | 15.68 | 9.11 | 0.72 | 19.05 | 8.49 | 0.44 | | CSI 1000 | 26.63 | 13.94 | 0.91 | 29.01 | 12.68 | 0.44 | [3] Group 3: Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - Historical volatility analysis includes historical volatility cone with 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantiles, minimum, maximum, and current values [3][4] - Volatility smile curve shows next month's at-the-money implied volatility [4] CSI 300 Volatility - Similar historical volatility analysis and volatility smile curve as SSE 50 [4] CSI 1000 Volatility - Similar historical volatility analysis and volatility smile curve as SSE 50 and CSI 300 [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: [Black Metal Weekly Report] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Black Metal Research Center Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The emotional trading of steel has come to an end, and the focus has returned to the industrial supply side. The third round of price increase for coking coal and coke has been delayed, and the macro - level positive factors have been realized. There is no new driver for iron ore to break through the price range [3][7][41][5]. Summary by Category 1. Steel - **Supply**: Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the weekly decline in hot - metal production accelerated, with a decrease of 3.5 to 236 million tons in the current week. Although the total production remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the overall production level is likely to be reduced in the future. The compression of steel mill production profit further intensifies, and a downward adjustment of production is a likely event [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory continues to decline, and the weekly apparent demand continues to improve, which is a safeguard to prevent the price from collapsing further. The overall demand this year shows characteristics of seasonal rigid demand remaining, insufficient speculative demand, and stable external demand [8]. - **Inventory**: The total steel inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the inventory pressure of some varieties is obvious. The total inventory of five major steel products is at a slightly high - neutral level, and the destocking slope during the golden September peak season is not ideal [8]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased synchronously, with a more obvious decline in rebar. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 84, a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 22, a weekly decrease of 18 [8]. - **Profit**: The production profit of long - process steel mills is meager, and most electric - arc furnaces are in a loss state. However, due to the seasonal peak season, the terminal rigid demand and shipment situation are acceptable, and the market is in a weak balance [8]. - **Valuation**: The discount of the futures price on the disk has been repaired, and the relative valuation of the futures price has increased. In the industrial dimension, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [8]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The emotional trading in the market due to important time points may have ended, and the focus is gradually returning to industrial contradictions [8]. - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. In the future, the steel production is likely to decline gradually. At the initial stage of production reduction, it may suppress the furnace materials, and in the second half, it may drive the sector to rise jointly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar of the 01 contract is below 150 for a long - position layout. For futures - spot trading, roll and take profit on reverse spreads [8]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The demand for steel is about to face seasonal weakening pressure. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 865.32 (+8.37) this week, and the production is 892.73 (+17.32). The steel inventory is still high, and the destocking slope is flat. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills is 236.36 (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%) [42]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The domestic coal mine supply is continuously restricted. Affected by production stoppages in some areas of Shanxi and Wuhai, the coking coal production has decreased again this week. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to more than 1,000 vehicles, but the supply of Mongolian No. 5 coal is still tight. The quotation of seaborne coal is stable with a slight upward trend [42]. - **Coke Supply**: The coke supply has increased slightly. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.8 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9). The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, but the cost of raw coal is still rising, and the expansion of coking profit is limited [42]. - **Inventory**: The mine - end inventory continues to decline. Although the downstream procurement demand is still being released, steel mills have limited profit and low acceptance of high - priced raw materials [42]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the third - round price increase of coke is implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1,700, and the warehouse - receipt cost of port - trading is 1,715. The warehouse - receipt costs of Shanxi coal and Mongolian coal are between 1,350 - 1,400, but the actual warehouse - receipt cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues [42]. - **Profit**: The profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9) [42]. - **Summary**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been realized, and the black - metal sector has risen and then fallen. Considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel - mill profit - making rate, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke may ease. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support and consider going long in the medium - to - long term. For arbitrage, industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [42]. 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The previous shipping data showed a week - on - week decline of 32.9 million tons per day to 451 million tons per day, mainly due to seasonal factors. The total arrival volume in China decreased by 28.4 million tons per day week - on - week. There is no significant unexpected fluctuation in the supply side [91]. - **Demand**: The steel - mill hot - metal production has dropped significantly to 236.36 million tons (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills has also declined. Although the steel apparent demand has continued to rise in the short term, it will decline under the influence of seasonal factors in the future [91]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 163.44 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand [91]. - **Profit**: The steel - mill profit continues to decline. Although steel mills will not actively shut down production on a large scale, the hot - metal production will decline in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions or other policy - related reasons [91]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is at a relatively high - neutral level [91]. - **Summary**: The influence of macro - level sentiment has weakened this week. The supply of iron ore is in a reasonable fluctuation range. Under the influence of environmental protection restrictions and possible production cuts in Shanxi, the hot - metal production will remain around 235 in the short term, and the port inventory will continue to rise [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, try short - selling. For arbitrage, wait and see for the time being [91].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price and Ratio**: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - **ETF and CFC Holdings**: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - **Eurozone Data**: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The investment strategy is to maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp [11] Group 2: Price Data Futures Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5212, with a daily decrease of 0.23% and a weekly decrease of 0.53%; SP2511 was 4838, with a daily decrease of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.49%; SP2605 was 5260, with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [6] Spot Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6] Outer - Disk Quotes - In October 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] Import Costs - In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Group 3: Fundamental Data Supply - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] Production - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp fluctuated between 20.7 - 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp between 20.9 - 23.6 tons [6] Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [6][11] - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory fluctuated between 22.4 - 24.7 tons [6] Demand - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated, with white cardboard showing an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper having frequent price increase letters but uncertain implementation, and overall demand remaining weak [6][11] Group 4: Valuation Data Basis - On October 31, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; Silver Star was 662, with a quantile level of 0.888 [6] Import Profit - On October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on methanol is "oscillating", suggesting a cautious and slightly bearish approach in investment operations [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market shows a pattern of loose supply, weak demand, high - level inventory, and differentiated profit performance. The futures market is likely to continue the weak oscillating pattern in the short term due to factors such as weak downstream demand and general cost - side support [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the overall methanol supply is in a loose state. Domestic production has some devices under maintenance and some resuming production, with relatively stable capacity utilization and output. Imports have increased compared to last week, and port inventories remain high with subsequent arrivals expected [2]. Demand - The overall methanol demand is weak. The methanol - to - olefins industry has limited consumption, and traditional downstream industries show differentiated performance, with some facing profit pressure and having cautious purchasing intentions [2]. Inventory - The overall methanol inventory is at a high level with regional differentiation. Port inventories are historically high, and inland inventories vary in different regions, with the overall inventory suppressing prices [2]. Profit - Methanol profit shows a differentiated pattern in terms of process and industry chain. Coal - based methanol profit has a slight adjustment, coke - oven gas - based profit declines slightly, and natural - gas - based methanol continues to be in the red. Downstream industries also have different profit performances, and the overall methanol industry chain still faces profit pressure [2]. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - The easing of Sino - US trade policies is beneficial. On October 30, the leaders of the two countries met, and the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year, and pause some export control rules and investigations. China will make corresponding adjustments [2]. Investment and Trading - The methanol futures market is in a weak state, with the core trading logic centered around the supply - demand fundamentals. The short - side pressure from high port inventories and loose supply suppresses prices, while the long - side support from low valuations and prices is limited. It is recommended to be cautious and slightly bearish in investment operations, and both single - side and arbitrage trading suggest a wait - and - see approach [2]. Price and Market Data - The spot prices of methanol in various regions show different degrees of decline this week. For example, the price of imported methanol in Taicang decreased by 1.51% [4].