Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: With the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report performance, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter a shock phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. In the context of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index. - Medium - to long - term: The stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. It is recommended to choose the opportunity to go long and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of medium - to long - term long strategies [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a - 9.30bp change; DR007 at 1.50 with a - 4.34bp change; GC001 at 1.23 with a - 33.00bp change; GC007 at 1.50 with a - 8.50bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a - 0.20bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.38 with a - 0.94bp change; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.56 with a - 1.41bp change; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.50bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond at 3.97 with a - 1.70bp change [4] - **Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan. The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations [4] Stock Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.8% to 4709.9; the SSE 50 fell 0.54% to 3046.6; the CSI 500 fell 1.27% to 7385.7; the CSI 1000 fell 1.11% to 7485.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4217 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the energy metals sector rising sharply, and the steel and battery sectors leading the gains. The game, power equipment, electronic chemicals, coal, securities, pesticide and veterinary medicine, and electronic components sectors led the losses [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For stock index futures, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) had a trading volume increase of 36.1% and an open - interest increase of 4.7%; the SSE 50 index futures (IH) had a trading volume increase of 41.8% and an open - interest increase of 7.4%; the CSI 500 index futures (IC) had a trading volume increase of 24.9% and an open - interest increase of 2.9%; the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) had a trading volume increase of 32.5% and an open - interest increase of 5.8% [5] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.00%, 3.09%, 2.63%, and 2.87% respectively [7] - **IH**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.01%, 0.39%, - 0.02%, and 0.24% respectively [7] - **IC**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 7.75%, 8.57%, 8.68%, and 9.13% respectively [7] - **IM**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 10.35%, 11.77%, 11.35%, and 11.25% respectively [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not significantly improved, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced according to the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5224, down 0.34% day - on - day and 0.50% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4846, up 0.21% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5264, down 0.23% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5100, unchanged; and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; and the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; and the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [11]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, and paper prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11]. 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 254, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 654, with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [6].

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Observe the inflection point of the weakening of the steel market sentiment and gradually reduce the spot or long positions [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and future supply - demand changes should be monitored [2] - After the macro - positive factors are realized, the coal - coke market may see a supply - demand adjustment, and the 05 contract of coking coal tests the support at the previous high [4] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are marginally weakening, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Steel - On Thursday, the inventory data of steel was acceptable, with no effective inventory accumulation in the steel segment. However, the futures market fluctuated greatly, and the sentiment of positions became chaotic. After recent important events, the market sentiment may cool down. The basis between futures and spot has been repaired from a high level, but the production profit has not been effectively repaired, and it is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of weakening sentiment [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese followed the adjustment of the black sector. Their fundamentals have problems such as high supply, large inventory reduction pressure, and weak downstream demand, and prices are likely to fluctuate under pressure [2] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the trading atmosphere of coking coal and coke is average. Coking coal prices are rising, but there are more failed auctions. The price of port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is 1660 (+10), and the coking coal price index is 1343.6 (+7.0). After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black sector has declined, and coking coal and coke are relatively strong. But considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease [4] Iron Ore - After the short - term conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, commodities have significantly corrected. The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. This period has seen a significant decline in hot metal, and if the decline continues, the supply - demand surplus pressure of iron ore in the fourth quarter will increase. The expected increase in supply still limits the price ceiling [5] Group 3: Price and Data Information Futures Closing Prices - On October 30, for far - month contracts, RB2605 was 3327.00 (-3.00, -0.09%), HC2605 was 3170.00 (12.00, 0.39%), JM2605 was 779.50 (-18.50, -0.36%), J2605 was 1359.00 (3.00, 1.38%); for near - month contracts, RB2601 was 3106.00 (20.50, -0.38%), HC2601 was 3318.00 (12.00, -0.33%), J2601 was 802.50 (3.00, 0.59%), JM2601 was 1288.00 (10.50, 0.38%) [1] Spot Prices - On October 30, the price of Tianjin rebar was 3000.00 (-40.00), Tangshan billet was 3210.00 (20.00), Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 (0.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3350.00, and the Platts Index was 107.70 (-0.70). The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 (4.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 (-50.00), Rizhao Port PB was 807.00 (-40.00), and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 [1] Spreads, Ratios and Profits - On October 30, the rebar disk profit was 212.00 (-0.02), the coil - rebar spread was 1.39 (0.00), the coal - coke ratio was -169.13 (-16.45), the coking disk profit was 73.46, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.87 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Terminal demand is strong, social inventory is continuously decreasing, and short - term supply - demand mismatch drives up prices. In the short term, prices are likely to move upwards due to supply - demand mismatch, but attention should be paid to hedging pressure. In the long - term, the report does not provide clear guidance [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 79,150 yuan with a rise of 650 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,950 yuan with a rise of 650 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 928 yuan with a rise of 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1330 yuan with a rise of 65 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2130 yuan with a rise of 65 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) has an average price of 7415 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) has an average price of 8825 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,595 yuan with a rise of 155 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,650 yuan with a rise of 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,700 yuan with a rise of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,550 yuan with a rise of 200 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3750 yuan with a change of - 610 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1000 yuan with a change of - 320 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1160 yuan with a change of - 320 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 tons with a decrease of 2292 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,681 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 55,275 tons with a decrease of 2460 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,410 tons with an increase of 770 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,525 tons with an increase of 190 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 79,574 yuan, and the profit is - 1542 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 84,524 yuan, and the profit is - 8509 yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overview - On October 29, A-shares performed strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points, hitting a new rebound high. The ChiNext Index soared nearly 3%, and the Beixin 50 skyrocketed over 8%, achieving its largest single - day gain in 9 months. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7% at 4016.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index climbed 2.93%, the Beixin 50 jumped 8.41%, the Kechuang 50 increased 1.18%, the Wind All - A rose 1.16%, the Wind A500 advanced 1.55%, and the CSI A500 went up 1.34%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 2.29 trillion yuan, compared with 2.17 trillion yuan the previous day [5] 2. Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | Trading Volume (Billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3063.021 | 0.41 | 60.14 | - | | CSI 300 | 4747.8378 | 1.20 | 246.21 | 1.19 | | CSI 1000 | - | - | 4391.62 | - | [3] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Put Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Volume PCR | Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2.46 | 1.75 | 0.71 | 6.60 | 2.70 | 3.91 | 0.69 | | CSI 300 | 10.83 | 4.46 | 0.70 | 16.96 | 8.05 | 8.90 | 0.90 | | CSI 1000 | 11.10 | 0.81 | - | 28.17 | 13.54 | 14.63 | 1.08 | [3] 4. Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50**: Historical volatility data and volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility are presented, including historical volatility cone with values such as 10% and 90% quantiles [3][4] - **CSI 300**: Similar to SSE 50, historical volatility and volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility are shown, along with historical volatility cone [3][4] - **CSI 1000**: Historical volatility analysis and volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility are provided, including historical volatility cone [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of Sino-US talks, the US market rose strongly with high policy uncertainty. Domestic short - position funds reduced positions to avoid risks. The right to buy ships in China is still poor, and the domestic product valuation is low. With the expectation of crush margin repair, the short - term futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. According to CONAB data, as of October 25, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [8]. Price and Spread - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 29, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 81, down 34; in Rizhao it was 31, down 34; in Tianjin it was 51; in Dongguan it was - 19; in Zhanjiang it increased by 6; in Fangcheng it increased by 6. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 60, up 16. The MJ - 5 was 166, down 14, and the RM1 - 5 was - 15 [6]. - **Price Spread**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price spread (Wangli) was 596, up 17. The price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 900, and the current value was 464, down 9 [7]. Other Data - **Exchange Rate and Crush Margin**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the futures crush margin were - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 5 [7]. - **Inventory and Processing**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean meal inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mill operating rate are presented in the form of historical data comparison charts [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors from trade frictions, stock indices may return to an upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. It is advisable to go long on stock indices when opportunities arise [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - The initial consensus between China and the US has improved market risk appetite, suppressing precious - metal prices. However, the upcoming Fed rate cut and the ongoing US government shutdown will still support the gold price. Short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The significant decline in the London lease rate has led to the shock adjustment of silver [1] - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and the limited industrial - side drive have led to the slightly stronger and volatile operation of aluminum prices [1] - In the context of continued production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing. The weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price, and recent attention should be paid to cost support [1] - The recent strengthening of the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread has increased the risk of a short squeeze, strengthening the expectation of zinc exports and driving up the domestic zinc price. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1] - The alleviation of Sino - US trade frictions has lifted market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US high - level meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The Fed rate cut will boost the non - ferrous sector. The implementation of Indonesia's RKAB new policy requires attention to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter, and be vigilant against mine - end disturbances [1] - The alleviation of Sino - US trade frictions has increased market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US high - level meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The stainless - steel futures are expected to rebound in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies in the medium and long term [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment and the rebound of the semiconductor sector have led to the short - term strong and volatile operation of tin prices under the influence of macro sentiment. Medium - and long - term, opportunities to go long on dips are recommended [1] - The Southwest's industrial - silicon production is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in November, and the market sentiment has faded due to the long - term non - implementation of the anti - involution policy [1] - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. Although the supply - side production schedule has increased, the overall demand is large [1] - The industrial drive of rebar and hot - rolled coils is unclear, and their futures valuations are low. Directional trading is not recommended [1] - Near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1] - The direct demand for ferromanganese - silicon is good, but the supply is high, and the inventory is at a high level, so the price is under pressure and fluctuating [1] - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and short - term sentiment is dominant. The price decline is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - Following glass, the supply of soda - ash is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1] - Supported by supply - side positive news and strong fundamentals, coking coal is challenging the previous high of the "anti - involution" trade, but the inconsistency of supply and demand among black - sector varieties may not have changed, and there are signs of stagflation in thermal coal in recent days. Whether coking - coal futures can break through successfully is highly uncertain, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Similar to coking coal, the coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot on rallies [1] - Indonesia's expected implementation of B50 next year provides support. Currently, the high inventory in Malaysia in September and the expected inventory accumulation in October are pressuring the palm - oil futures. It is advisable to wait and see for the production - area's production cut and inventory reduction cycle [1] - With the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting, the negotiation result may bring new guidance. Currently, with the expected reduction of raw - material supply in the fourth quarter and the oil mills' expected reduction of operating rates to support prices, the expected inventory reduction of soybean oil supports the futures. With multiple factors intertwined and a lack of new drivers, it is advisable to wait and see [1] - The expected improvement in Sino - Canadian relations is pressuring the rapeseed - oil futures. Domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading [1] - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton - spinning capacity and the reduction of spinning profits have led to great uncertainty in the new - year's cotton demand. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure due to the record - high production [1] - Typhoons around the National Day have had an adverse impact on sugar - cane harvesting and production in South China. There is seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the expected supply increase after the new - sugar listing will limit the rebound space [1] - The corn inventory in the north and south ports is low, and the short - term supply from production areas has decreased, so the price in the north port is firm. The futures and spot prices are expected to face selling pressure later, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out, but the expected high enthusiasm of traders to build inventories will limit the downside space [1] - Under the expectation of Sino - US negotiations, the US futures market has risen strongly. With high policy uncertainty, domestic short - selling funds have reduced positions to avoid risks. The domestic purchase - ship profit is still poor, and the domestic futures valuation is low. The futures price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather [1] - The trading logic of pulp is related to the old - warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure, and a November - January reverse spread is recommended [1] - The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - The live - hog spot price has stabilized recently due to secondary fattening and increased slaughter volume with the cooling weather. Although the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, changes in the slaughter volume and weight need to be awaited, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1] - OPEC+ may continue to maintain a small - scale production increase in November, short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China has softened [1] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent and follows crude oil. The expected "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient [1] - The raw - material cost of natural rubber provides strong support, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the cost support of butadiene for synthetic rubber. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the high - level production and inventory have not been the main constraints, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1] - The news of the PTA industry's planned "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price. Overseas device failures and the decline in the operating rate of some domestic reforming devices, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene - glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and there has been no significant decline in domestic demand [1] - The news of the PTA industry's planned "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price, and the basis of short - fiber has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1] - The Asian benzene price remains weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming devices have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US remains closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the styrene device maintenance has gradually increased, and the crude - oil price has continued to decline [1] - The export sentiment of urea has eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, so the upside space is limited, but there is support from the anti - involution policy and the cost side [1] - The center of the crude - oil market price has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand has slowly increased, and the PE price is fluctuating slightly stronger [1] - The maintenance support for PP is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price is returning to fundamentals and fluctuating weakly [1] - The PVC futures price is returning to fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price is fluctuating weakly [1] - There are many planned alumina projects in Guangxi, the subsequent maintenance concentration will decline, and the warehouse - receipt digestion is difficult, with the high - concentration caustic - soda price in an inverted state [1] - The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices are weakening, the PG futures price has repaired its valuation, but the C3/C4 spot prices are still under pressure, and the domestic fundamentals are continuously loose [1] - The container - shipping European line is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm. The freight rate is approaching the full - cost line, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - With the alleviation of trade - friction factors and policy support, stock indices may rise, and it is advisable to go long on dips [1] Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold is affected by both market - sentiment suppression and fundamental support, and short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate. Silver is adjusting due to the decline in the London lease rate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, aluminum prices are fluctuating slightly stronger, alumina fundamentals are weak, zinc prices are expected to remain high and volatile, and nickel prices are affected by supply and macro factors. The industry is also affected by Sino - US relations and Indonesian policies [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils lack clear industrial drive, iron - ore near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, ferromanganese - silicon is under supply - side pressure, glass is supported by supply and demand, soda - ash follows glass, coking coal and coke face uncertainties in supply - demand consistency [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by international policies, inventory, and Sino - foreign relations. Cotton demand is uncertain, sugar has short - term seasonal support, and corn prices are affected by inventory and supply - demand expectations [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, PTA, ethylene - glycol, short - fiber, benzene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, alumina, and SLPG are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and raw - material prices [1] Others - Container - shipping European - line freight rates are expected to stop falling and stabilize, pulp trading is related to old warehouse receipts, logs' spot price is firm, live - hog prices are expected to fluctuate, and the market sentiment of various commodities is affected by Sino - US relations and international policies [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for SP2601. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10] - Current paper product demand remains stable, and paper product prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [10] Group 2: Price Data Futures and Spot Prices - On October 29, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5242, with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly increase of 0.42%; SP2511 was 4836, with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.37%; SP2605 was 5276, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.11%. The spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - In terms of outer - disk quotes in dollars, the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged. In terms of import costs, Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Group 3: Fundamental Data Supply - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [5] - Regarding domestic production, the domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp in the week of October 23, 2025, was 23.5 tons and 23.6 tons respectively [5] Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 205.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory on the same day was 22.6 tons [5][10] Demand - The production of major paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard has shown certain fluctuations recently, but overall, the demand for paper products has remained stable [5] Group 4: Valuation Data Basis - On October 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 264, with a quantile level of 0.913; the Silver Star basis was 664, with a quantile level of 0.89 [5] Import Profit - On October 29, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news of the PTA industry promoting an "anti-involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price rapidly, but it may fall due to the post - market decline of crude oil [2]. - Although the overall load of domestic PTA plants has been adjusted down due to low processing fees, the polyester industry's profit is still constrained by over - capacity pressure from new capacity and overseas plant commissioning [2]. - After long - term low - level operation, the PTA price rebounded quickly due to policy expectations. The current downstream polyester operating rate remains above 91%, with demand slightly exceeding expectations, and recent polyester production and sales are generally high [2]. - Against the background of positive news from the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, overseas demand for Chinese textile and clothing products is expected to recover [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price remained at 4535, MEG inner - market price decreased from 4167 to 4152, PTA closing price increased from 4614 to 4636, and MEG closing price increased from 4069 to 4100 [2]. - The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6445 to 6440, and the short - fiber basis increased from 103 to 151 [2]. - The price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]. Industry Indicators - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, and the polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 44.00% to 41.00% [2][3]. - The yarn - spinning machine operating rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00% [2][3]. Cash Flow and Processing Fees - The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, and the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 459 to 455 [2]. - The T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3875 to 3880, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1587 to 1536 [2]. - The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber increased from 522 to 527 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and stage a phased rebound. In the long run, the long - term upward logic of precious metals remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts within the year, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks suggest that the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices will likely continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 29, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai gold futures dropped 0.55% to 910.88 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.91% to 11,338 yuan/kilogram. Compared with October 28, the prices of London gold, London silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver all fell 100%, while AU2512 rose 1.1% and AG2512 rose 2.6% [3][4]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: The price spreads of gold ID - SHFE active price and silver TD - SHFE active price increased significantly on October 29, 2025, with growth rates of 28013.6% and 80885.7% respectively compared to October 28. The gold and silver ratios of SHFE and COMEX also changed, with the SHFE gold - silver ratio dropping 1.5% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 1.85%, the non - commercial short positions increased 9.43%, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 0.13%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased 0.97%, the non - commercial short positions decreased 0.21%, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 1.43%. The gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased 0.86% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On October 29, 2025, compared with October 28, the SHFE gold inventory increased 0.92%, the SHFE silver inventory decreased 0.55%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.60%, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.91% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Indices - **Related Indicators**: On October 29, 2025, compared with October 28, the US dollar index dropped 0.02%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 0.50%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate dropped 0.10%, the VIX rose 3.99%, the S&P 500 rose 0.23%, and NYMEX crude oil dropped 2.23% [4].