Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. The supply factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Demand**: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. The demand factor is considered bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The inventory factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, log prices are below the delivery cost, with a low valuation. The valuation factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals of log spot prices continued to weaken, and spot prices dropped to the lowest level of the year. The outer - market quotes in December had a large span, with a median of $116. The shipment volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. Overall, log futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Futures Position**: As of December 5th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,907 lots, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 15,277 lots, an 8.2% decrease from the previous week [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5th, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/750/850 yuan/m³ and 730/770/940 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/800 yuan/m³ and 730/760/840 yuan/m³ respectively [16]. Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [20]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs were directly shipped from New Zealand to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [26]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between $112 - $119/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, with an import profit of about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about $111/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.986 million cubic meters, a 3.83% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 850,900 cubic meters, a 2.30% increase from the previous week. The radiation pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a 12.50% decrease from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory remained the same as the previous week [32]. - **Outbound Volume**: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 30,400 cubic meters, a 15.32% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 26,200 cubic meters, an 11.02% increase from the previous week [37]. - **Timber Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 5th, 2025, the timber square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the timber square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：近端宽松预期下，短期上方空间有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏空 | （1）洪水带来的产量影响未知，但GAPKI官方表示对印尼产量影响较小，马来的减产幅度也不足以消化库存压力；（2）全球大豆丰产，国内豆油供 | | | | 给正常；（3）加拿大、澳大利亚上调菜籽产量，外部菜籽宽松在贸易壁垒下未充分交易，国内菜籽短期仍较短缺，但后续有宽松预期。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）印尼近期仍宣称将维护能源的自主性，说明长期推进生柴产业的大方向不会改变，但B50将明年下半年落地，时间较远短期难带来驱动；（2）原 定10月31日敲定的生柴RVO未落定，观望；（3）豆油国内消费稳定、另有出口端支撑。 | | 库存 | 观望 | 国内油脂总库存仍处高位，菜油因原料短缺持续去库，棕榈油因贸易商大量买船有补库预期，豆油则需关注美豆进口后的去向（国储/商业压榨）。 | | 宏观及政策 | 偏空 | （1）印尼B50处于道路实验中，预计明年下半年实行，但有分析师 ...

800 400 600 200 200 库存数据 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 02/01 01/01 饲料企业豆粕库存天数 全国主要油厂豆粕库存(万吨) ====== 2022 ====· 2023 - 2024 ----- 2020 ----- 2021 ------ 2022 ------ 2023 ----- 2024 - 2025 == 2025 150 18 [ 15 120 30 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) ----- 2020 ----- 2021 ----- 2022 ------ 2023 ===== 2020 ===== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 100 开机和压榨情况 10/07 11/07 12/08 06/05 07/06 08/06 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn market is "oscillating" [4] Report's Core View - The recent counter - seasonal rise in corn prices is due to the extremely tight downstream inventories caused by the market's previous unanimous bearish expectations, combined with factors such as logistics and grain quality issues, essentially reflecting the low carry - over of old crops. In the short term, before the spot market contradictions are resolved, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the medium term, the trends of the 03 and 05 contracts need to closely monitor the changes in the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas, the arrival of imported corn, and policy trends [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress has exceeded 30%, which is relatively fast compared to the same period in history. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China. The overall national production is expected to be abundant. Imported Brazilian corn is arriving at ports successively [4] - **Demand**: Bullish. As of October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 38.0%, a 2.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term. Feed enterprises have low inventories and a rigid demand for replenishment. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, and channel traders have a strong willingness to purchase new - season corn [4] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation rate at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level. The grain inventory at southern ports has dropped to a low level. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises also have low corn inventories [4] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level, and the spread is at a high level [4] - **Profit**: Bearish. The breeding profits of pigs, meat and egg - laying poultry, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are all in the red [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is high; from the perspective of the absolute futures price, the valuation of the corn futures price is low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The railway administration issued a loading - limit notice, increasing the short - term expectation of logistics tightness [4] - **Investment View**: Oscillating. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the medium term, closely monitor the grain - selling rhythm, import situation, and policy trends for the 03 and 05 contracts [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate, and arbitrage is on hold. Pay attention to policies and weather [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, national average prices, port prices, starch prices, and futures contract positions. These charts show the historical data from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the price trends and position changes of corn in different periods [6][8][12] Part Three: Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grass - roots grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China is presented through charts, showing the data from 2019/20 - 2025/26 [23] - **Channel Supply**: The channel supply has increased, and relevant data on the arrival volume at northern ports and the remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises are presented [25] - **Import**: In October, corn imports increased, while imports of sorghum and barley decreased [35] - **Port Inventory**: The inventory at northern ports and the grain inventory at southern ports are at low levels [41] - **Feed Industry**: The inventory days of feed enterprises are presented, and the monthly feed production from 2021 - 2025 is also shown. The data shows that as of October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase [46][48] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are in the red. The pig price has declined slightly, and the weight reduction is not obvious [50][54] - **Deep - Processing Industry**: The corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased seasonally, and the inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has deteriorated, and the starch inventory is being depleted. The alcohol start - up rate has increased seasonally, but the processing profit has declined [65][73][93] - **Substitute Products**: The wheat price has risen, and the flour demand is weak [100] Part Four: Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **USDA Report**: The corn stock - to - use ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The global corn production and its distribution are presented, with the United States accounting for 32%, China 23%, Brazil 10%, Ukraine 3%, Argentina 4%, and other countries 28% [113][117][118] - **US Corn Exports**: US corn export sales are performing well, and the export sales and cumulative export sales to China are also presented [119]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 5, the A-share market fluctuated upward with accelerated rotation of theme stocks and over 4,300 stocks rising. In the afternoon, the non-bank financial sector saw heavy volume and pulled up, with insurance and financial technology leading the way. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3902.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.36%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.52%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index remained flat, the Wind All A Index rose 1.14%, the Wind A500 rose 0.99%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.95%. The total trading volume of A-shares throughout the day was 1.74 trillion yuan, compared with 1.56 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing prices, daily percentage changes, trading volumes (in billions of yuan), and trading amounts (in billions) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are as follows: Shanghai 50 closed at 3002.0087, up 0.93% with a trading volume of 1104.47 billion yuan and a trading amount of 44.60 billion; CSI 300 closed at 4584.5368, up 0.84% with a trading volume of 4121.47 billion yuan and a trading amount of 196.80 billion; CSI 1000 closed at 7342.4924, up 1.29% with a trading volume of 3528.06 billion yuan [3]. - **CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation**: For the Shanghai 50, the trading volume of call options was 2.28 million contracts, put options 3.48 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.53; the open interest of call options was 3.78 million contracts, put options 2.81 million contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.74, and the total open interest was 6.59 million contracts. For the CSI 300, the trading volume of call options was 12.54 million contracts, put options 10.32 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.65; the open interest of call options was 8.12 million contracts, put options 4.92 million contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.79, and the total open interest was 18.44 million contracts. For the CSI 1000, the trading volume of call options was 15.02 million contracts, put options 32.48 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.81; the open interest of call options was 16.61 million contracts, put options 12.10 million contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.95 [3]. 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility Analysis**: The historical volatility cone shows the 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values. The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options [3][4]. - **CSI 300 Volatility Analysis**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, it includes the historical volatility cone and the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money options [3][4]. - **CSI 1000 Volatility Analysis**: Also includes the historical volatility cone and the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money options [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with the expectation that styrene costs will weaken and the market will be mainly bearish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The styrene market generally maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Although the discussion of exports to Western Europe provides some support, the weak sales in the polymer market, the weak demand in the off - season, and the low operating rates of downstream PS, EPS, and ABS significantly offset the bullish sentiment brought by exports. The economic efficiency has slightly improved, but the overall production profit is still negative. The spot quotation in East China shows a slight contango in the forward market, and the inventory continues to rise, indicating insufficient restocking willingness at the end - user level. The short - term supply and demand in the Asian styrene market are basically balanced, but due to weak downstream demand and a negative profit pattern, prices lack upward momentum [130]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The styrene - benzene spread has widened to $150, and the styrene - naphtha spread has risen to $240, with a slight improvement in economic efficiency, but the economic benefits of non - integrated plants are still negative, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 224,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous inventory of 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.59%, and a 79,000 - ton increase from the same period last year of 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.48%, showing a bearish drive [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 160,600 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.19%. The commercial inventory was 96,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 2.34%, showing a neutral drive [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened, overseas blending fuels have weakened, and the market is concerned about the concentration of domestic styrene spot holdings, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $240, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $150. Styrene profits are expanding, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The concentrated maintenance of reforming units is driving up prices, and the market is watching the strengthening of the basis and monthly spreads, showing a neutral drive [4]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Director of the White House National Economic Council of the United States, Hassett, said that the Fed may cut interest rates at the next meeting, showing a bullish drive [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The overseas gasoline off - season has arrived [6]. - **Styrene**: The profits of non - integrated styrene plants have been repaired, and styrene profits have slightly expanded. However, downstream derivative demand has dragged down pure benzene, making it perform weakly [14][25][36]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: Domestic and overseas off - season demand is weak, and the production profit of PS has weakened. The inventory of EPS has accumulated while the production has remained stable [51][64][75]. - **Overseas Benzene Market**: The price has slightly declined. Although overseas pure benzene demand is weak, supply is gradually recovering. The restart of some devices is expected to boost benzene demand, but overall chemical demand is weak [73]. - **Asian Benzene Market**: It has weakened again, mainly dragged down by weak energy and naphtha prices. The short - term Asian benzene market may maintain a pattern of weak supply - demand balance and price pressure [83]. - **Overseas Styrene Market**: The price has declined and trading is light, affected by the holiday effect and high costs. The short - term situation is difficult to improve significantly [93]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory has continued to accumulate [94]. - **Adipic Acid**: The load has decreased and profits have declined [105]. - **Caprolactam**: The inventory has been depleted [116]. - **Home Appliances**: The export demand is weak [125].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 OPEC+继续暂停增产，国际油价暂获支撑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:OPE C +继续暂停增产，国际油价暂获支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,597万桶/日，较2024年上升 280万桶/日。(2)OPEC:10月份OPEC国家原油产量为2846万桶/日，较9月份上升3.3万桶/日，Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1456.4万桶/日，较9月份 | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | | | | | 下降10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：10 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区降水天气增加，对割胶作业扰动增强，但随着气温下降整体原料产 出呈现季节性减量趋势，当地加工厂高价采购原料积极性走低，原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰东北维持旺产期产出，杯胶价格继续回落； | | 供给 | 中性 | 泰南洪水逐渐消退，恢复割胶 及工厂生产，虽有抢原料，但供应增量预期施压原料，胶水价格走跌。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步转好，中北部的极 | | | | 端天气影响减弱，因进口胶减少，工厂采购成本上移 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of multiple factors on stock index trends and provides investment views and trading strategies [3] - Factors such as economic and corporate profitability, macro - policies, overseas factors, and liquidity are considered [3] - The overall view is that the market is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating, and investors can consider taking long positions opportunistically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Profitability**: It is bearish. In November, China's PMI data was mixed, with the manufacturing PMI slightly recovering but the non - manufacturing PMI falling. Industrial enterprise profits were under pressure in October, with a year - on - year decline of 5.5% [3] - **Macro - policies**: It is bullish. On December 5, the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the risk factors of insurance companies' related businesses, which could release funds for expanding investment [3] - **Overseas Factors**: It is slightly bullish. US inflation data was lower than expected, with the September core PCE price index rising 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.9% [3] - **Liquidity**: It is neutral. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 24.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - The market is bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders can consider taking long positions during market adjustments, leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [3] - The single - side strategy is to wait for the right opportunity to take long positions. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.5; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.09% to 3002; the CSI 500 rose 0.94% to 7097.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% to 7342.5 [5] - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (5.3%), communication (3.7%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), machinery and equipment (2.8%), and non - bank finance (2.3%) led the gains, while media (-3.9%), real estate (-2.2%), food and beverage (-1.9%), computer (-1.7%), and textile and apparel (-1.6%) led the losses [8] - **Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.35%, while the open interest increased by 7.16%. The trading volume of Shanghai 50 futures increased by 4.44%, and the open interest increased by 11.16%. The trading volume of CSI 500 futures decreased by 13.57%, and the open interest increased by 4.70%. The trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 11.33%, and the open interest increased by 4.72% [11] - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of December 5, all contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were in a discount state [15] - **Cross - variety Spread Performance**: The spread of CSI 300 - Shanghai 50 was at the 94.1% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at the 41.1% historical quantile level. The ratios of CSI 300/CSI 1000 and Shanghai 50/CSI 1000 were at the 41.3% and 35% historical quantile levels respectively [19] 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. Next week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [25] - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: As of December 4, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2476.35 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in total market trading volume was 10.8%, at the 92.2% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 24.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of December 5, the risk premium rate of CSI 300 was 5.28, at the 51.3% quantile level in the past ten years [31] 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profitability - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with slight improvements in supply and demand. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [3][34][42] - **Corporate Profitability**: The profitability of different broad - based indices and industries varied. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 in Q3, 2025 was 5.22%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.93% [47] 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driven - A series of policies have been introduced in recent times, including policies to boost consumption, support the real estate market, and implement monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic development and stabilize the market [52][53][54] 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In November, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 119,000 [62] - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade relations and the global economic situation [69][71][73] 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of December 5, 2025, the rolling P/Es of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14 times, 11.9 times, 32.4 times, and 46.5 times respectively, at the 78.8%, 86.7%, 70%, and 66.9% quantile levels since October 2014 [77] - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors had different levels of profitability and valuation, such as the food and beverage sector having a relatively high ROE and P/E [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the container shipping industry on European routes is "oscillating", with both short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes expected to be between - 5% and 5% [3][4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of container shipping rates has been poor, but shipping companies continue to announce price increases for January rates. The 12 - month contract of container shipping on European routes has entered the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. Although there are some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase announcements), the overall market is still suppressed by the downward adjustment expectation. The key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the freight rate performance in mid - to late December [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bullish. In late December, MSK quoted $2400, HPL quoted $2050, and CMA quoted $3550. MSK announced a price increase to $3500 for January [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Major global liner company CMA CGM will change its INDAMEX route to pass through the Suez Canal. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. European - related routes are significantly affected by supply - chain disruptions and supply - demand games. The FEWB route has a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9% in December, and the European Northern and Mediterranean main ports are congested. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [4] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. There is a differentiation in loading rates, with PA + MSC having the lowest loading rate in the alliance and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Summary**: Oscillating. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [4] - **Investment View**: Oscillating [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes through charts, including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index [8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods through charts [13] - **Delivery Volume**: It presents the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [16][18] - **Demolition Volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [17][19] - **Future Delivery**: It provides information on the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods, including quarterly and annual data [22][24][25] - **Shipbreaking Price and New - building Price**: The report shows the shipbreaking price of container ships in different loading capacities, the new - building price index, and the new - building price of container ships in different loading capacities [29][31] - **Second - hand Ship Price**: It presents the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [35][37][39] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: It includes the total existing capacity, the existing capacity in different loading capacities, the existing capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of shipbreaking [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: It shows the total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances such as PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [59][63][67] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU and the number of ships, the idle capacity in different loading capacities, and the proportion of idle capacity [78][79][83]