Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On October 22, the prices of precious metals continued to decline significantly due to factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the strengthening of the US dollar, and investors' concentrated profit - taking. The transfer of silver inventories from the US and China to the London market alleviated the shortage of physical silver in London, further triggering the risk of silver selling [5]. - The sharp decline in precious metal prices indicates that the historic upward trend of this round has temporarily ended. In the short term, with the Fed still having expectations of a rate cut in October, precious metals may enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended that investors participate rationally, avoid short - term chasing up or selling down, and focus on long - term allocation. In the long run, the bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and long - term investors can wait for the adjustment to complete and then go long on dips [5]. - In the long term, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts within the year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, the unsustainable US debt, intensified great - power competition increasing the risk of US dollar credit, and the continuation of global central bank gold purchases suggest that the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 22, compared with October 21, London gold spot dropped by 4.3% to $4153.64 per ounce, London silver spot fell by 5.0% to $49.16 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 4.3% to $4167.10 per ounce, and CONEX silver declined by 4.4% to $48.47 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2512 dropped by 4.2% to 952.56 yuan per gram, AG2512 decreased by 3.4% to 11404 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) fell by 4.1% to 950.25 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) declined by 3.4% to 11391 yuan per kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: From October 21 to October 22, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 120.0% to 2.71 yuan per gram, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by - 16.8% to - 1133 yuan per kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.8% to 83.53, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 0.1% to 85.98 [3]. Position Data - **COMEX Positions**: As of October 21, compared with October 20, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. - **ETF Positions**: As of October 21, compared with October 20, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1058.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.59% to 15676.6372 tons [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 22, compared with October 21, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.52% to 87015 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.70% to 691688 kilograms [3]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On October 21, compared with October 20, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.03% to 39020901 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.52% to 503832524 troy ounces [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Data - **Interest Rates**: From October 21 to October 22, the US 2 - year Treasury yield increased by 0.03% to 7.10, and the US 10 - year Treasury yield increased by 0.35% to 3.98 [4]. - **Exchange Rates and Other Data**: The NYMEX crude oil price decreased by 0.29% to 17.87, the US dollar index decreased by 0.50% to 98.97, the VIX decreased by 1.97% to 3.45, the S&P 500 remained unchanged at 6735.35, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 1.14% to 57.58 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short - term, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias due to increased purchasing demand during the quarterly peak season, creating a short - term supply - demand mismatch that supports prices from below. The upside space depends on lithium carbonate supply resumption and hedging pressure. In the long - term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 74,350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,100 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 76,180 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.53%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 76,780 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.78%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 77,080 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.69%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 77,120 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.63%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 76,900 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.61% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 857 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1115 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1845 yuan/ton; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 6475 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 145 yuan/ton; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 7650 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 130 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 34,185 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 110 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 156,900 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,300 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2770 yuan/ton with a change of - 890 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continued contract is - 300 yuan/ton with a change of 40 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continued contract is - 340 yuan/ton with a change of 60 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 132,658 tons with a decrease of 2143 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 34,283 tons with a decrease of 464 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 57,735 tons with a decrease of 2030 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 40,640 tons with an increase of 350 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 29,019 tons with a decrease of 873 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,146 yuan/ton with a profit of - 1873 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 77,947 yuan/ton with a profit of - 6672 yuan/ton [3] Technological Breakthrough - A research team led by Huang Xuejie from the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Physics has developed an anion regulation technology to solve the problem of poor contact between the electrolyte and lithium electrodes in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries, and the research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Ural needle pulp and high - quality coniferous pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.97%, SP2511 was 4854 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.04%, and SP2605 was 5270 with a daily increase of 0.84% and a weekly increase of 0.57% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 2500 with no daily or weekly change, Russian Needle was 5100 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2.00%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In October 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Nisshin Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%, and that of broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range destocking trend [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper has been relatively stable recently. For example, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard has not shown significant changes [6] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 246 with a quantile level of 0.911, and that of Silver Star was 646 with a quantile level of 0.878 [6] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.511, and that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.556 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by factors such as supply contraction, low processing fees, and concerns about future textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The industry profit is constrained by over - capacity due to new device production, and the PTA price is difficult to move independently due to the decline in crude oil prices [2] - The ethylene glycol market has low port inventories, limited port arrivals, and expected decline in overseas imports. However, domestic device production puts pressure on prices, and it is expected to operate weakly with the end of the polyester peak season and the decline in the crude oil fundamentals [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price rose from 437.7 yuan/barrel on October 21, 2025, to 447.2 yuan/barrel on October 22, 2025, an increase of 9.5 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4482 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4320 yuan/ton to 4370 yuan/ton. The spot and disk processing fees decreased, and the PTA - SC decreased slightly [2] - **PX**: The CFR China PX price increased from 784 to 798, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 11 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 4004 yuan/ton to 4051 yuan/ton. The spot price in Zhangjiagang increased, and the basis strengthened [2] - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F increased slightly, while the price of FDY150D/96F decreased slightly. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6340 to 6365, and the cash flow decreased from 381 to 353 [2] - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5465 to 5485, and the cash flow decreased from 56 to 23 [2] 3.2 Industry Start - up Rate - **PX**: The start - up rate remained at 84.62% [2] - **PTA**: The start - up rate remained at 76.95% [2] - **MEG**: The start - up rate decreased from 65.39% to 63.35%, a decrease of 2.04 percentage points [2] - **Polyester Load**: The polyester load remained at 89.38% [2] 3.3 Transaction Suggestions - **PTA**: The game intensifies, with emotions and fundamentals resonating. The supply side of PTA is shrinking, and the processing fees continue to be low. The industry profit is affected by over - capacity, and the start - up rate may decline further [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is low, but domestic device production puts pressure on prices. It is expected to operate weakly with the end of the polyester peak season and the decline in the crude oil fundamentals [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Data Daily [3] - Date: October 23, 2025 [4] - Analyst: Xie Wei, with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Data Domestic Spot Prices - In Nanning warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 374 yuan to SR01, up 2 yuan [4] - In Kunming, the price is 5730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 404 yuan to SR01, up 2 yuan [4] - In Dali, Yunnan, the price is 5575 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, with a basis of 289 yuan to SR01, down 13 yuan [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 344 yuan to SR01, up 12 yuan [4] Domestic Futures Prices - SR01 is 5426 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; SR01 - 05 is 43 [4] - SR05 is 5383 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [4] International Data - The exchange rate of RMB to USD is 7.1416, up 0.0036; ICE raw sugar主力 is 15.24, unchanged [4] - The exchange rate of Brazilian real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3 [4] - The exchange rate of Indian rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004; Brent crude oil主力 is 61.66, unchanged [4] Group 3: Core View - Typhoons around the National Day have adversely affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, with sugarcane lodging and flooding in the producing areas. Also, there is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices during the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is launched, the expected rebound space is relatively limited [4] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts show domestic white sugar industrial inventory, Brazilian sugar out - of - quota import profit, Liuzhou - 01 basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 month spread [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Aluminum Oxide, Glass, Asphalt [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Silver, Electrolytic Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Bean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Fuel Oil, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PF, PVC, High - Concentration Alkali [1] - **Wait - and - See**: Crude Oil, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] Core Views - In the short term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1]. - Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate. The domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. - The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so the price of carbonate lithium is bullish [1]. - The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coil are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1]. - The direct demand for manganese silicon is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The short - term production profit of ferrosilicon is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1]. - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening. Soda ash follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1]. - The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month palm oil contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1]. - The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1]. - The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1]. - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1]. - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1]. - The trading logic of pulp lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1]. - The spot price of logs is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - US tariffs affect the demand for natural rubber, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - The fundamentals and sentiment of PTA are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1]. - The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1]. - The short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1]. - The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory of styrene is expected to accumulate further [1]. - The export sentiment of urea has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1]. - The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price of PF is oscillating strongly [1]. - The support of maintenance for some products is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price returns to the fundamentals and oscillates weakly [1]. - The PVC futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. - Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent maintenance concentration is decreasing, the digestion of warehouse receipts is not smooth, and the price of high - concentration alkali is inverted [1]. - OPEC's production increase, the weakening of international CP/FEI prices, and the tight domestic butane fundamentals drive the valuation repair of PG prices [1]. - The price of container shipping to Europe has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Catalog Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month and the repeated tariff policies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so it is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Aluminum Oxide**: The domestic production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1] - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1] - **Tin**: The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long term. In October, the supply increases while the demand decreases, and the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, so the market sentiment has subsided [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so it is bullish [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap before the holiday, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge the previous highs again, but the difficulty of breakthrough is large. It depends on whether there are new statements about "anti - involution" in the domestic important meeting communique this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1] - **Cotton**: The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1] - **Sugar**: Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1] - **Corn**: The market is concerned about the selling pressure of the spot in the producing areas after the end of October. However, the acquisition attitude towards high - quality corn in Northeast China is positive, and the downward space of the C01 contract is expected to be limited [1] - **Bean Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1] - **Pulp**: The trading logic lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1] - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber**: US tariffs affect the demand, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1] - **PTA**: The fundamentals and sentiment are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1] - **Short Fiber**: The plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory is expected to accumulate further [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1] - **PF**: The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price oscillates strongly [1] - **PVC**: The futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so it oscillates weakly [1] - **High - Concentration Alkali**: Many alumina

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the performance of major indices, trading volume and open interest of index options, and volatility analysis of different indices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36% to 3916.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 2.04%, the STAR 50 Index rose 2.81%, the Wind All - A Index rose 1.62%, the Wind A500 Index rose 1.66%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 1.65%. A - share trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, compared with 1.75 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. - **Specific Index Data**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3007.2634, with a 1.09% increase and a trading volume of 55.30 billion yuan and a turnover of 1.4727 billion. The CSI 300 had a 1.53% increase and a trading volume of 237.25 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 closed at 7344.0468, up 1.45% with a trading volume of 348.159 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50, the call option trading volume was 2.27 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 2.54 million contracts, the call option open interest was 3.28 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 3.65 million contracts. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 0.64 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 14.26 million contracts, the call option open interest was 6.20 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 9.40 million contracts. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 20.38 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 11.42 million contracts, the call option open interest was 8.97 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 12.36 million contracts [3]. - **PCR**: The SSE 50's trading volume PCR was 0.87, and the open - interest PCR was 0.69. The CSI 300's trading volume PCR was 0.77, and the open - interest PCR was 0.806. The CSI 1000's trading volume PCR was 0.79, and the open - interest PCR was 0.94 [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report shows the historical volatility and volatility cone for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including different percentile values and the current value at different time points [3][4]. - **Volatility Smile Curve**: It also presents the volatility smile curves for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policy and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship purchases is expected to affect the progress of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the unilateral market. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian on October 21 was 111, up 6; in Tianjin it was 91; in Rizhao it was 81. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 11, in Dongguan was 11, in Zhanjiang was 61, up 6, and in Fangcheng was 61, up 6. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 85, down 4, and MJ - 5 was 146, down 13 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 419, up 2; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal on the main contract was 568, up 23 [7]. 3.3 Supply Situation - Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 14, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. 3.4 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio, but the downstream trading volume of soybean meal is light, and the pick - up is good [9]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The currently issued sanctions have little impact on European routes. European routes are in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October to stop the price decline has shown initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of year - end price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are in advance. However, the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November empty - sailing situations need to be monitored. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1310, with a 12.92% increase; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 973, with a - 4.11% decrease. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a 31.88% increase, SCFIS - US West has a - 1.60% decrease, SCFI - US East has a 16.35% increase, SCFI - Northwest Europe has a 7.21% increase, SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a - 1.43% decrease, and SCFI - Mediterranean has a 3.53% increase [4]. - **Contract Freight Index**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values range from 1135.0 to 1769.3, with corresponding increases of 2.31% - 5.19% [4]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions of different contracts have different changes, such as a decrease of 32 in EC2606 position and an increase of 2333 in EC2412 position. The month - spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 have changes of - 52.4, 41.3, and 78.6 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - In late October, Maersk's quote was 1800 - 1900, HPL's was 1900, CMA's was 2100, etc. In early November, HPL's quote was 2500, CM's was 2800, etc [6]. 3.3 International News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza war. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a long list of tariff exemptions, and intense lobbying is expected [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East to follow up on the Gaza agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the easing of the Sino - US trade situation, positive news such as Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026 and the European joint statement on Ukraine have boosted market risk appetite, putting pressure on precious metal prices. The transfer of inventory from New York to London has relieved the physical tightness of London silver. It is expected that precious metal prices may shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and major - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term credit risk of the US dollar. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Precious Metals - **Price and Price Changes**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, London gold spot rose 2.5% to $4340.36 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.4% to $51.72 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 2.5% to $4355.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.6% to $50.70 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also showed varying degrees of increase. [5] - **Spread and Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 48.5%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 31.8%. The spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 21.4%, and the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 1.2%. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios both increased by 1.9%. [5] 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: From October 17 to October 20, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 1.09% to 1058.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position rose 1.76% to 15769.7749 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of change. [5] - **Inventory Data**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.32% to 86565.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased 12.44% to 749362.00 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.19%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.59%. [5] 3.3 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.06% to 7.09, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 98.62, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.46%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50% to 4.00%. [5] - **Stock Market and Commodity Market**: The VIX index decreased by 12.27%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.07% to 6735.13, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.56% to $56.93. [5] 3.4 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On October 21, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.02% to 994.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.2% to 11805 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Short - term Outlook**: Precious metal prices may still need some adjustment in the short - term, but due to factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest - rate cut in October, prices are unlikely to continue to decline significantly. Domestic silver prices may be relatively resistant to decline, and prices are expected to shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long - term, the center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6]