Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable and fluctuating, with the total steel inventory returning to destocking, but some varieties still have serious inventory accumulation. The market participants are cautious, and the demand lacks explosive power. It is not recommended to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. The production profit of double - silicon is poor in the short term, and the supply is difficult to increase. The demand for double - silicon is strong due to high - level hot metal. The inventory of ferrosilicon is normal, and the subsequent accumulation pressure is not large. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The supply of coking coal after the festival has not increased significantly, and the hot metal output remains high. The market is still in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. - For iron ore, there is no obvious driving force in the short term. The supply is not significantly affected, and the high - level hot metal may lead to over - supply of steel in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 21, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3104.00 yuan/ton, 3236.00 yuan/ton, 749.50 yuan/ton, 1817.50 yuan/ton, and 1250.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 0.50 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 47.00 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.32%, - 0.28%, 0.07%, - 2.52%, and - 3.62% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3047.00 yuan/ton, 3219.00 yuan/ton, 769.50 yuan/ton, 1672.00 yuan/ton, and 1177.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, 1.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 42.50 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.36%, - 0.31%, 0.13%, - 2.73%, and - 3.49% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 on October 21 were - 57.00 yuan/ton, - 17.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit data on October 21: the coil - to - rebar spread was 172.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.96, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar disk profit was - 116.43 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 106.59 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On October 21, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3210.00 yuan/ton, 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3230.00 yuan/ton, 2930.00 yuan/ton, and 104.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 0.80 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3220.00 yuan/ton, 280.00 yuan/ton, and 776.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 30.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 4.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, another powder, Ganjimao Coking Concentrate, Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke, and Qingdao Port PB were 703.00 yuan/ton, 745.00 yuan/ton, 1310.00 yuan/ton, 1480.00 yuan/ton, and 780.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 50.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis data on October 21: the HC main contract basis was 31.00 yuan/ton, the RB main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton, the I main contract basis was 48.00 yuan/ton, the J main contract basis was - 45.60 yuan/ton, and the JM main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Steel**: The market is weakly stable and fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading idea for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for disk arbitrage. Roll and take profit for cash - and - carry reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Wait and see for single - side trading [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Wait and see [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand mismatch drives up the price of lithium carbonate; in the medium - long term, increased production may suppress futures prices. High demand stimulates downstream to increase lithium carbonate purchases, leading to a reduction in social inventory [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 75,800 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 75,580 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 75,920 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 75,980 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 75,800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 854 yuan, up 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,115 yuan, up 15 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,845 yuan, up 20 yuan; lithium phosphate aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 6,360 yuan; lithium phosphate aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 7,520 yuan, down 90 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 34,075 yuan, up 75 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 156,800 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,150 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract production is - 1,880 yuan, up 60 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 340 yuan, down 160 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 400 yuan, down 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,658 tons, down 2,143 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,283 tons, down 464 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,735 tons, down 2,030 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,640 tons, up 350 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 29,892 tons, down 813 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 74,936 yuan, and the profit is - 1,870 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,947 yuan, and the profit is - 6,903 yuan [3] Technological Breakthrough - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research team led by Huang Xuejie has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for Russian needles in 2026. The futures market may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp. The 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 21, 2025, SP2601 was 5170 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SP2511 was 4854 with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly increase of 0.17%; SP2605 was 5226 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.08% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 2500 (no daily or weekly change), Russian softwood pulp was 5100 (no daily change, 2.00% weekly increase), and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 (no daily or weekly change) [6] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton (down 20 dollars/ton compared to the previous period), Nisshin Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton (up 20 dollars/ton), and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton (unchanged) [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase [6] - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods, with no obvious trend [6] - **Shipping Volume to China**: The shipping volume of pulp to China in August 2025 was 162, a 4.50% increase [6] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp inventory in China's main ports was 207.4 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: It showed a downward trend in different periods [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly, and the overall demand for paper products remained stable. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [6] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 21, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 246 with a quantile level of 0.911; the Silver Star basis was 646 with a quantile level of 0.878 [6] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.511; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.555 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA supply side is contracting, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. PTA processing fees remain low, and industry profits are still constrained by overcapacity due to new device commissions. Polyester downstream load remains above 90%, but high load has not led to significant inventory accumulation. With the end of the peak seasons, there are concerns that textile and clothing demand will be affected by the trade war. PTA's operating rate may decline further, and it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the falling crude oil prices. Bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4315 to 4320, PTA closing price rose from 4384 to 4414 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4100 to 4075, MEG closing price increased from 4003 to 4004 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6355 to 6340, short - fiber basis increased from 199 to 218 [2] - 11 - 12 spread increased from 4 to 8, polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5450 to 5400, the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 905 to 940 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5602 to 5594, hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5602 to 5594 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5702 to 5694, outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 740 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 539 to 535, T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10280 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3940, polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16350 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14480 to 14530, polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1663 to 1654 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 6920, hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 657 to 661 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained at 7310 [2] Market Conditions - Short fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 2 to 6070. The spot market is mainly price negotiation by production factories, with traders' prices fluctuating in a range. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and market transactions are cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6090 - 6460, in the North China market is 6210 - 6580, and in the Fujian market is 6060 - 6400 [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5570 - 5710 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged from the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuate slightly, most supply - side offers are stable, downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market trading atmosphere is light [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%, polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 77.00% to 66.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00% [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, but its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. With the end of the peak season and concerns about trade - war impacts on textile demand, PTA's operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult to have an independent market due to falling crude oil prices [2] - For ethylene glycol, port inventory in East China is low, but domestic device production and expected decline in overseas imports put pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and a weakening crude oil fundamental, polyester is expected to run weakly [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Changes - INE crude oil rose from 435.8 yuan/barrel on Oct 20, 2025, to 437.7 yuan/barrel on Oct 21, 2025, an increase of 1.9 yuan [2] - PTA - SC increased from 1217.0 yuan/ton to 1233.2 yuan/ton, up 16.19 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3843 to 1.3877, an increase of 0.0034 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 783 to 784, and PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 247 [2] - PTA main contract futures price rose from 4384 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; PTA spot price increased from 4315 yuan/ton to 4320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - PTA spot processing fee rose from 119.6 yuan/ton to 121.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 188.6 yuan/ton to 215.8 yuan/ton, up 27.2 yuan [2] - MEG main contract futures price rose from 4003 yuan/ton to 4004 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 102.16 yuan/ton to - 102.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4100 yuan/ton to 4075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX, PTA, MEG operating rates and polyester load remained unchanged at 84.62%, 76.95%, 65.39%, and 89.38% respectively [2] c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F decreased from 6390 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; POY cash flow decreased from 77 to 31, a decrease of 46 [2] - FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6605 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow increased from - 208 to - 204, an increase of 4 [2] - DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 yuan/ton to 7735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; DTY cash flow decreased from 227 to 226, a decrease of 1 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6355 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 392 to 381, a decrease of 11 [2] - Semi - bright chip decreased from 5475 yuan/ton to 5465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; chip cash flow decreased from 62 to 56, a decrease of 6 [2] d. Product Sales Ratios - Long - filament sales ratio increased from 55% to 86%, an increase of 31% [2] - Staple - fiber sales ratio decreased from 68% to 66%, a decrease of 2% [2] - Chip sales ratio increased from 67% to 93%, an increase of 26% [2] e. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/10/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.31 | 0.01 | DR007 | 1.44 | 1.01 | | 12 | GC001 | 1.10 | -6.00 | GC007 | 1.46 | 0.50 | | J | SHBOR 3M | 1.59 | 0.40 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | J | 1年期国债 | 1.47 | 0.25 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | -0.90 | | E | 10年期国债 | 1.76 | -1.00 | 10年期美债 | 3.97 | -1.40 | | = | | | | | | | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1595亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日910亿元逆回购到 期,据此计算,单日净投放 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to 3863.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 0.25%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.35%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.79%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.61%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.63% [4]. - A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 8th, compared with 1.95 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. 2. Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Volume (billion) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 1283.62 | 53.18 | 2974.8648 | 0.24 | | CSI 300 | N/A | 0.53 | 5057.99 | 0.75 | | CSI 1000 | 3284.45 | 218.58 | - | - | [3] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (million contracts) | Put Option Volume (million contracts) | Volume PCR | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 2.72 | 1.77 | 0.54 | 5.41 | 3.20 | 2.21 | 0.69 | | CSI 300 | 3.06 | 7.98 | 0.62 | 8.22 | 5.88 | 4.92 | 0.72 | | CSI 1000 | 21.04 | 11.60 | 0.81 | 23.71 | 9.44 | 12.59 | 0.88 | [3] 4. Volatility Analysis - The report provides historical volatility and volatility cone analysis for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but be wary of the repetition of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will continue to support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to turn into a fluctuating trend. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term. The prices of various commodities in different industries are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, government shutdowns, production capacity, inventory, and policy changes, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices; the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will support the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but the physical tightness in London needs to be noted [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term global trade frictions are repeated, copper price fluctuations intensify. The continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - liquidity are expected to drive the copper price to continue to operate strongly [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The alumina production capacity is continuously released, and the production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Pay attention to the cost support recently [1]. - **Zinc**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Sino - US trade frictions have slightly eased, and the Fed rate cut expectation at the end of the month remains high. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in the fourth quarter. The nickel price may be dominated by the macro situation and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - inventory suppression. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium and long term [1]. Chemical Industry - **Polysilicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. The production plan in October has increased unexpectedly. Organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, ES, LPG, etc., their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, market demand, and international market conditions, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Black Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coils are unclear, and the valuations are low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month of iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward potential. The supply of silicon iron and glass is in excess, and the prices are under pressure. The price of coal and coke may fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to the new提法 of "anti - involution" in the domestic major meeting communique [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Grains**: For palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the market is affected by factors such as international trade policies, production areas' supply and demand, and inventory. The market is in a state of multiple - factor entanglement, and different trading strategies are recommended [1]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: The short - term domestic cotton price is likely to fluctuate widely, and the market may face pressure in the long term. The raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to have limited rebound space, and the idea of selling at high prices is maintained [1]. - **Corn and Soybean Meal**: The selling pressure of US soybeans suppresses the US market price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by Sino - US trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1]. Energy and Others - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are affected by factors such as OPEC + production increase, seasonal demand changes, and US tariff policies, showing a fluctuating trend. The prices of other products such as BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are also affected by multiple factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market demand [1]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping price has fallen to a relatively low level, with the possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - Due to the uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply, the market has a pessimistic outlook. However, the current poor domestic soybean purchase profit is expected to affect the pace of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino-US policies and South American weather in the later stage [8] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Basis Data - On October 20th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was 105, down 27; in Tianjin, it was 85, down 27; in Rizhao, it was 75, down 7. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 5, down 47 [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 89, down 31 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts was 545, down 17 [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [8] Supply and Demand Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has a certain downward adjustment space. The planting of Brazilian soybeans has begun, and as of October 14th, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. China cannot purchase US soybeans, and the source of soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high substitution ratio. The downstream trading of soybean meal is apparently light, but the提货 is good [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is in a strong oscillation. The EC main contract rose by over 7% due to the Ministry of Commerce's countermeasures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., triggering concerns about the supply of shipping capacity. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding is expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading, and November empty sailings [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value of 1160 [3] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 973, down 4.11% from the previous value of 1015 [3] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 1936, up 31.88% from the previous value of 1468 [3] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 862, down 1.60% from the previous value of 876 [3] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 2853, up 16.35% from the previous value of 2452 [3] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1145, up 7.21% from the previous value of 1068 [3] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1031, down 1.43% from the previous value of 1046 [3] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1613, up 3.53% from the previous value of 1558 [3] 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the prices have different degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 0.29% to 3.68% [3] - **Contract Holdings**: For contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the holdings have different degrees of change, with the change ranging from a decrease of 91 to an increase of 442 [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads have decreased by 24.1, 22.7, and 3.8 respectively [3] 3.3 Market News - **US - Israel Relations**: US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the Gaza war cease - fire agreement, but there are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5] - **Egypt's Shipping Loss**: Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5] - **US Tariff Policy**: The US may soon announce a long tariff exemption list, and intense lobbying is expected [5] - **US - China Tariff Relations**: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the US - China tariff war [5] - **Middle East Peace Process**: White House envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to the Middle East on Sunday night to follow up on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5] - **IMO's Decision**: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will discuss the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) [5]