Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillation; arbitrage: M3 - M5 positive spread" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the influencing factors of the粕类 market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It believes that the market will be in an oscillatory state. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, the demand side shows different trends for豆粕 and菜粕, and the inventory situation is complex. The investment view is oscillatory, and the trading strategy is unilateral oscillation and M3 - M5 positive spread arbitrage [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). Future US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the producing areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in Brazil's producing areas is expected to improve, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are expected to seasonally decline, and there is uncertainty in domestic豆粕 supply in the first quarter of next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported菜粕 and rapeseed in China is expected to decline, and the 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase [5] - **Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply.豆粕 has relatively high cost - performance. Recently, the downstream trading of豆粕 is normal, and the delivery performance is good, while the downstream trading and delivery of菜粕 are cautious [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory reduction of豆粕 is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. This week, the inventory days of feed enterprises'豆粕 increased slightly. Domestic菜粕 inventory is continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The domestic new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit is good, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is also good [5] - **Valuation**: From the perspective of basis, the recent price of豆粕 futures is at a neutral - to - high valuation position [5] - **Macro and Policy**: China and the US have reached a soybean purchase agreement, and China has started to purchase US soybeans, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market. The domestic market is expected to be in short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. If there are no obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil, and M05 is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release [5] PART TWO:粕类 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In November, the 25/26 US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio and the global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio decreased. The global rapeseed stock - to - consumption ratio also decreased [33][39] - **US Soybean**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume have certain trends, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [50][57][61] - **Brazilian Soybean**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is presented, and the CNF premium of soybeans and the import soybean futures margin are shown [68][70] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are provided [72] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and菜粕 in different months is presented, and the inventory of imported rapeseed and domestic主要地区菜粕 inventory are shown. The开机率 and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, the trading and delivery of豆粕 and菜粕, the feed monthly output, the breeding profit of livestock and poultry, and the price and weight of pigs are also included [78][96][110]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping market is complex. The INDAMEX route of CMA CGM will change to pass through the Suez Canal, which is an important progress for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The FEWB route has low empty - sailing rates and reduced capacity due to ship maintenance, with port congestion and strong e - commerce demand supporting freight rates. The TAWB route has serious port congestion due to labor disputes. The European container shipping route's December contract is in the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. The overall market is under downward - adjustment expectations, and the key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The present values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCET), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1398, 1115, 1550, 2315, and 1400 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 0.39%, - 0.62%, - 5.02%, - 14.29%, - 4.65%, and - 0.28%. The present value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1483 with a decline of - 9.52%, and the present value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 2300 with an increase of 3.05% [6] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the present values are 1252.5, 1367.1, 1040.0, 1658.6, 1609.9, and 1092.9 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.21%, - 1.34%, - 0.02%, 0.58%, 1.57%, and 0.26% [6] - **Position Data**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 2108, 1559, 3976, 3500, 32215, and 19350 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 33, 10, 15, - 231, - 2007, and 221 [6] - **Monthly Spread Data**: The present values of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 monthly spreads are 48.7, 565.7, and 517.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 15.4, 6.7, and 22.1 [6] 3.2 Market News and Analysis - **Route Changes**: CMA CGM's INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, which is an important step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route, increasing the traffic volume of this key route [7] - **FEWB Route**: In December, shipping companies strictly controlled capacity, with an empty - sailing rate of only 0.9%. Ship maintenance further reduced capacity. European northern and Mediterranean ports were congested, which extended ship turnaround and increased rejections. Strong e - commerce demand supported freight rates, and shipping companies promoted GRI to drive the market up, and the rates are expected to remain high during Christmas and New Year [7] - **TAWB Route**: Ports in Northern Europe (such as Rotterdam) and the Mediterranean were seriously congested due to labor disputes, with yard utilization rates exceeding 90%. Many European countries also faced container shortages [7] - **European Container Shipping Route**: In December, the contract entered the delivery month. Although there were some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase letters), the overall market was under the pressure of downward - adjustment expectations. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the performance of freight rates in mid - to - late December [8] 3.3 Strategy - The strategy is to wait and see as the December contract is gradually losing trading value [9]

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, and the attractiveness of 30 - year treasury bonds to allocation - type institutions has increased. The market will focus on key events such as the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December, which may provide new directional guidance. In the short - term, the pattern of a capped and floored bond market is difficult to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of interest rate cuts in early next year is strengthened, the bond market is expected to rise [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge in China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth decline, the asset - liability tables of residents and enterprises are impacted, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to recover fundamentally in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and a low - interest - rate environment are crucial for policy implementation, making it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, the performance of treasury bond futures across different maturities was divergent. Ultra - long - term treasury bond futures tumbled, while other maturities weakened slightly, and the long - term trend did not show an obvious inflection point. Negative factors such as the new regulations on public fund sales, year - end policy expectations, central bank bond - buying scale, and regulatory investigations led to concentrated profit - taking and early liquidation, increasing market volatility, especially in the more speculative maturities. The main institutional holders of ultra - long - term treasury bonds had insufficient buying willingness or limited capabilities. On Friday, ultra - long - term bonds stabilized slightly but had weak rebound momentum [4]. - The table shows the closing price, weekly change rate, weekly trading volume, change in weekly trading volume, weekly open interest, and change in weekly open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facility (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rate, and various interest rates such as deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and bond - pledged repurchase rates, as well as data on MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, and also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, treasury bond term spreads, US treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond term spreads [10][12][18][29][34][37] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in an oscillating range, waiting for a driver to break through the position. The iron ore futures price has dropped as expected, and the coking coal futures price has broken through the position and hit a new low. It is necessary to pay attention to the guidance of important meetings in December [3]. - The steel market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc. Currently, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are structural differentiations and regional contradictions. The coking coal and coke market is affected by downstream demand and supply - side factors, with prices under pressure [5][69]. - The iron ore market is expected to see continued inventory accumulation due to weakening demand and stable supply, and the price is difficult to break through the upward range [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The molten iron output continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.38 to 232.3wt in the current week. The daily consumption of scrap steel decreased slightly month - on - month, and was lower than the level in 2023. After entering December, the production profit of steel mills improved slightly compared with November [5]. - **Demand**: From the perspective of industrial data, the supply - demand structure is statically balanced, and dynamically shows a trend of weakening supply and demand, with the decline in supply greater than that in demand. From the perspective of market perception, the demand is basically around the rigid - demand level, and speculative demand is light. The demand for medium - plate is stable, the cold - rolled demand has slightly improved, the apparent demand for building materials has shown a seasonal decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, which may be mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratios of rebar and wire rod have changed from improvement to stability, while those of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure, and the medium - plate inventory is healthy [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 93, and the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 20 [5]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36%, with a week - on - week change of + 1.3% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, which is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is neutral [5]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: This week is important and will be a key week for the macro - trading expectations of December. There will be a game on the new round of interest - rate cut expectations in the United States, and important domestic meetings such as the Central Economic Work Conference and a Politburo meeting at the end of the year [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the market is in an oscillating range. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - reduction logic and then observe the start of the winter - storage replenishment drive. It is advisable to focus on the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Cash - and - carry: Pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply and demand of steel have both declined. This week, the apparent demand for five major steel products is 864.17 (- 23.83), and the output is 828.95 (- 26.76). The demand shows a seasonal performance, the supply is declining rapidly, and the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the absolute inventory value is high, and the industrial contradictions are not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded month - on - month, and the molten iron output has continued to decline. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 232.30 (- 2.38), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%) [69]. - **Supply of Coking Coal**: The domestic coal - mine production maintains a low level, and large mines still have the intention to reduce production in the later period. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area has continued to accumulate and is close to 3 million tons. The quotation of overseas coal has continued to rise. As of December 4, the CFR quotation of Australian Peak Downs coal is 221.45 US dollars (+ 5.6), and the CFR quotation of first - line prime coking coal is 205.5 US dollars (+ 0.5) [69]. - **Supply of Coke**: The supply of coke has rebounded. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.1 (+ 1.1), the coking profit is 30 (- 17). The price - reduction rhythm is slow, the price of raw coal has fallen in advance, the coking profit remains at a good level, and the supply of coke has continued to recover rapidly [69]. - **Inventory**: The middle and lower reaches have continued to slow down their procurement, and the upstream has continued to accumulate inventory. The total inventory has continued to increase, and the corresponding price has been under downward pressure [69]. - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the market still has expectations for subsequent price cuts. After the implementation, the warehouse - receipt cost is 1700, the port trade quotation has fallen in advance, and the converted warehouse - receipt cost is 1600. The futures price around 1550 reflects the expectation of four - round price cuts. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1100, but several near - month contracts are affected by the difficulty of handling long - position deliveries, and are basically below 1000 near the delivery time [69]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%), and the coking profit is 30 (- 17) [69]. - **Summary**: The Black Chain Index rose first and then fell this week. By Friday, the downward pressure on commodities increased, and many varieties began to accelerate their decline. The coking coal futures broke through the position at night and hit a new low. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of steel have both declined, the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices have continued to weaken due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and it is not recommended to chase short positions even if the position is broken [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [69]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipment volume has rebounded by 21.1 tons per day to 4.67 million tons per day month - on - month. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia has rebounded by 38.4 tons per day, that from Brazil has declined by 34.1 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has rebounded by 16.4 tons per day to 1.024 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China has rebounded by 31.4 tons per day, with the arrival volume from Australia increasing by 21.2 tons per day, that from Brazil increasing by 6.6 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream sources increasing by 3.6 tons per day [118]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has slightly declined to 2.323 million tons (- 2.38). The main reason for the weakening demand is the maintenance of steel mills. The profit ratio of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but has declined by 1.3% month - on - month to 36.36%. The port inventory has increased by 898,900 tons and exceeded the level of the same period last year. The output of five major steel products has significantly declined, mainly due to rebar. Rebar still maintains a rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory depletion. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory is stable, but the slope has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level [118]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 898,900 tons month - on - month. Under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [118]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to gradually affect the molten iron output [118]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral. After oscillating at the upper edge of the range, the iron ore price has declined. Fundamentally, the short - term arrival volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the subsequent shipment volume will remain stable, with no major unexpected fluctuations. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron production [118]. - **Summary**: It is expected that the subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from the production reduction of steel mills due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel mills. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. Under the inventory pressure, it is difficult for the iron ore price to break through the upward range, and the previous short positions can be held [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [118].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to South American weather. Without significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure in December and January due to the expected bumper harvest in Brazil, and the M05 contract is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be in a long spread position, with the risk being the domestic reserve release situation [9]. - In terms of supply, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further revised down due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September, and there is uncertainty in export adjustments. Attention should be paid to the results of the December USDA supply - demand report. The forecast for Brazil's new - crop production in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 29th, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 88%. As of November 26th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%. In December and January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory, and there is uncertainty in domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year [8][9]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry have maintained a high inventory in the short term, and capacity reduction is not obvious, supporting the demand for soybean meal. However, the breeding and slaughtering sectors are currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [9]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly in December and January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased slightly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on December 5th was 24. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions (Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, etc.) and the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong are also provided, along with the spread data such as M1 - M5, M1 - RM1, RM1 - 5, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [4][5]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the crushing profit on the futures market are presented. The inventory data of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises, and the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills are also included [5][7]. 3.3开机 and Pressing Situation - The data on the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 产能退出不及预期，盘面价格震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC:产能退出不及预期 ，盘面价格震荡偏弱 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给 偏空 （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 率在79.89%环比减少0.33%，同比减少1.68%；其中电石法在82.65%环比减少0.96%，同比增加1.95%，乙烯法在73.44%环比增加1.06%，同比减少10.61%。 需求 偏空 （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企业开工在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is falling, and the futures market is fluctuating weakly. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral, while inventory, profit, and valuation are bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 million tons to 84 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. Loads in North, Central, and East China increased [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, unchanged from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [3]. - **Inventory**: Due to weak downstream demand and poor receiving enthusiasm, caustic soda inventory increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 87, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda increased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute futures price is relatively low. The near - month contract is slightly at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended currently. Pay attention to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: This week, Shandong's spot market was weak, and the futures market had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year and increased this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The spot price is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production schedule [9]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of caustic soda continued to fall and has not yet stabilized. Due to the "buy on rising" psychology, demand is difficult to increase [9]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33]. - **Device Loss and Capacity Utilization**: The device loss and capacity utilization data are presented in a chart, and the overall capacity utilization rate showed certain trends [36]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. The production data of different regions in different years are presented in a chart [38]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [39]. - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, and inventory increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [54][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum industry entered a seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [66]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [74]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The economics of the PX industry chain is significantly differentiated. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable, with the overall load above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure. The by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory has increased by 0.17 tons this week, and the market is slightly accumulating inventory [4]. - **Base - spread**: The PTA base - spread has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread is $252, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around 200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a medium - low level, the reformer unit profit has declined, and the load of overseas PX units is affected [4]. - **Macro - policy**: There is no significant impact on the market, and it is considered neutral [4]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - **Interest Rate Expectation**: On December 4th, a Reuters survey showed that 82% of economists (89 out of 108) believed that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December interest rate decision to support the cooling labor market, which was consistent with the nearly 85% probability of interest rate cuts in the interest rate futures market [8]. - **Personnel Arrangement Speculation**: Trump's staff and allies are discussing a personnel arrangement. If Trump appoints Hassett as the next Fed chairman, the current Treasury Secretary Bessent may also serve as the director of the White House National Economic Council, but the arrangement has not been finalized [8]. - **Gasoline Market**: US gasoline inventory is accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Although the US holiday travel demand has increased, energy prices are generally falling, and the RBOB gasoline price has also declined. The EIA data shows that the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories has further suppressed prices. The market's optimistic sentiment about the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has increased the expectation of Russian crude oil returning to the market, also putting pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ maintains its production - cut stance and has no short - term plan to increase production [23]. Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market in Asia**: The refined oil market in Asia has a structural shortage. The naphtha price has fallen due to weak petrochemical demand and the competition of low - price LPG. The gasoline and reformate markets are strong. The Asian reformate has a premium of $81/ton over naphtha, and refineries generally prioritize internal supply for gasoline blending rather than external sales for chemical use. The short - term reformate market will remain tight [42]. - **Mixed Xylene Market**: The overseas mixed xylene market is under pressure, and the price has significantly declined. The RBOB gasoline price has dropped, and the arbitrage window between the US and Asia has closed. The decline in mixed xylene is limited by PX demand support. The supply of mixed xylene is restricted by the maintenance of multiple key aromatic hydrocarbon and cracking units [47]. - **PX Market**: The PX price is stable at a high level, and the structural contradiction is intensifying. The domestic PTA demand is strong, especially after India cancelled the BIS certification for PTA imports. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, and the PX - benzene spread has only slightly increased to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. Some PX production units are shut down or under maintenance, and the PX supply growth is limited [55]. Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: The ethylene glycol price in East China is difficult to be effectively supported due to the continuous decline in coal prices. The new device production has increased the market supply pressure, and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has also put pressure on the market. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost the demand for textile and clothing exports [78]. - **Polyester Market**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, but the demand is seasonally weakening. Export demand has become a supporting force. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, and the PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May [4][55].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 市场风险偏好向好，有色板块明显走高 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-12-08 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 ...