铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：关注"反内卷"宏观情绪是否确认拐点，预计有一定溢价挤 出 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝主力合约在接近21000关口附近位置，尝试突破再次未果，且逐渐呈现出触顶回落的温和迹象，叠加周五夜晚此 前"反内卷"收益品种的集体跌落，或可逐步去探这波国内宏观情绪的拐点。 ◆ 我们倾向于看铝价在7、8月有一定溢价空间的挤出，但是回调的深度不深，核心还是基于此波累库的高度并不看高。近 期出口需求看，基于小样本调研，下游铝加工材如汽车用板材对美的出口受6月关税及近期比价的不利影响，比较承压； 但对非美区域的专材出口，依然稳健，不过比价条件也影响部分利润。 ◆ 当前周频的微观基本面来看，本周SMM华东现货升水回落，截至本周五降至升水10元/吨；截至7月24日，铝锭社 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market faces a conflict between macro and industrial factors, leading to intensified long - short game. The iron ore market experiences a redistribution of raw material profits, causing the ore price to decline under pressure. The coal - coke market shows wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized. The ferroalloy market also sees intensified game due to emotional impacts on the market [3][6][79][132]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel Views - **Logic**: There is a conflict between macro and industrial factors, intensifying the long - short game. Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement the same. The overseas macro situation is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere in the coal - coke market is strong. The exchange has issued risk warnings and restricted positions, cooling down short - term supply - side trading. The demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [6][8]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data**: - Iron water production is 242.2 (- 0.2) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons. - Scrap steel production is 46.5 (- 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons. - For rebar, supply is 212.0 (+ 2.9) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 tons; demand is 216.6 (+ 10.4) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.4 tons; inventory is 538.6 (- 4.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 221.6 tons. - For hot - rolled coils, supply is 317.5 (- 3.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.7 tons; demand is 315.2 (- 8.5) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons; inventory is 345.2 (+ 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85.0 tons [7]. 2. Iron Ore Views - **Logic**: Overseas shipments increased month - on - month driven by Brazil, and the destocking trend at domestic ports has temporarily stopped. Downstream construction remains at a high level, and there is still support for immediate consumption demand. The "anti - involution" theme continues to ferment, and the expectation of price intervention in multiple industries is strengthening. The iron ore futures price has corrected from its high level because it is at a disadvantage in profit distribution in this round of the market [81]. - **Supply Data**: - Global iron ore shipments are 3109.1 (+ 122.0) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 199.0 tons. - Australian shipments are 1571.2 (- 116.7) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 102.4 tons. - Brazilian shipments are 907.8 (+ 97.4) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 198.9 tons [80]. - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 09 contract has fallen from its high, closing at 802.0 yuan/ton. The position is 529,000 lots, a decrease of 164,000 lots. The average daily trading volume is 519,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 135,000 lots [83]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remains relatively strong. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) has increased from 870 to 878 yuan/ton [87]. 3. Coal - Coke Views - **Supply**: There are expectations of supply contraction. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong have resumed production, but some in other areas have reduced production, resulting in a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal production decreased by 2.27 tons week - on - week to 1225.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [134]. - **Demand**: Intermediate links are active, and there is a situation of short supply. Stimulated by policies, the black market has risen continuously, boosting the sentiment of the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coke enterprises and traders are actively purchasing [134]. - **Inventory**: The transfer of inventory rights from top to bottom is smooth. Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while downstream coke enterprises' raw material inventories have increased slightly. The sample coke enterprise raw material coal inventory increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [134]. 4. Ferroalloy Views No detailed content provided in the given text.

2025年07月27日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 | 2 | | 豆粕：关注中美经贸会谈，盘面震荡 | 7 | | 豆一：基本面稳定，关注技术面波动 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理，内强外弱 | 13 | | 棉花：预计维持震荡偏强走势 | 20 | | 生猪：强预期弱现实，关注路径变化 | 27 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩 豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位，但基本面缺乏强驱动，没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接，印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲，棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 豆油：中美贸易谈判临近，豆系紧张情绪抬头， ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 01 黄金：短期继续看回落 白银：上行空间基本饱和 02 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 03 传统淡旺季特征弱化，短期偏震荡 04 内外盘联动，短期震荡中期仍偏空 05 铅：消费旺季逐步来临，将支撑价格 金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - **Reality**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - **Supply - demand**: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - **后市观点**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - **后市观点**: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - **后市观点**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movements**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - **Market Outlook**: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].

Group 1: Overall Viewpoints - The weekly view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to short at high levels for the 10th contract and hold the reverse spread between the 10th and 12th contracts [1][4] - In the monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand, with the expected decline in demand exceeding that in supply, putting further pressure on the fundamentals [5] Group 2: Supply Analysis - In the past week, the number of blank sailings in August increased by 1, but due to MSC's practice of replacing small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week [4][59] - In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up from 299,000 to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August but higher than July [4] Group 3: Demand Analysis - It is expected that the cargo volume in the first half of August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, and Christmas orders are likely to be shipped by the first half of August. The inflection point of market cargo volume is likely to occur in the second half of August [4] - In June, China's exports to the US showed a narrowing decline, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [36] Group 4: Price Analysis - For the 2508 contract, the average FAK in weeks 30 and 31 was around $3,350 - $3,400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of 2,300 - 2,350 points. In week 32, different shipping companies had different price adjustment plans [6] - The market average of spot freight rates and the SCFIS index had certain fluctuations in the recent period, with specific changes in each week's data [13][14] Group 5: Historical Data - The report presents historical freight rate data (monthly) with detailed comparisons of year - on - year and month - on - month changes between different months and years [9] - It also shows the historical monthly spread data between different contract months [10] Group 6: Trade Volume Data - Data on US imports by major countries are provided, including year - on - year and month - on - month changes in June [34] - Asian export trade volume data to Europe, North America, and other regions are presented, with specific volume and change data for different months [40][44]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年07月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期回调，中期震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期回调，中期震荡 | 供应 | • | 周内中国甲醇产量增加，恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量。数据方面，本期甲醇产量1898825吨，较上周增加29100吨，涨幅1.56%； 行业产能利用率为83.98%，环比涨1.56%。产量增加主要与上周期及本周期恢复装置增加有关，整体上看，恢复增加量远大于检修损失量。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | • | 目前统计下期甲醇计划检修装置减少，恢复装置或将增加，因此市场整体供应量或继续增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃方面，周内华东烯烃企业负荷稍降，其他企业装置运行稳定，行业周均开工稍有降低。下周中煤蒙大装置预期恢复，烯烃行业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - **Inventory - side**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 上游观点汇总 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 03 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 | 供应 | 工厂新增减产不多，加工费高于成本叠加实物库存不高使得工厂减产意愿普遍不强。本周工厂平均开工率90.6%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工94.7%， | | --- | --- | | | 未来预计维持或小幅提升。关注反内卷措施对上游可能的影响。"反内卷" 对短纤的影响集中在可能的成本抬升（如MEG），短纤老装置虽 | | ...