1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The price will mainly move within a range, and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities between different contract months [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The price will fluctuate, waiting for next week's USDA report [2][11]. - Soybean: The price will adjust and fluctuate [2][11]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2][14]. - Sugar: The price will mainly consolidate within a range [2][18]. - Cotton: The price will fluctuate following the overall market sentiment [2][23]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [2][29]. - Live pigs: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [2][32]. - Peanuts: The price will move in a volatile manner [2][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price increased by 0.58%, and the night - session remained unchanged; soybean oil's day - session closing price decreased by 0.18%, and the night - session remained unchanged; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price decreased by 1.53%, and the night - session decreased by 0.04%. The trading volume of palm oil increased by 176,298 lots, and the position increased by 326 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil decreased by 38,383 lots, and the position increased by 20,895 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil increased by 20,169 lots, and the position increased by 20,113 lots [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints; in 2025, Indonesia's palm oil biodiesel consumption was 14.2 billion liters, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year; the USDA commissioner predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports in 2025/26 will be about 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [5][8]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price increased by 0.94%, and the night - session decreased by 0.21%; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price decreased by 0.32%, and the night - session decreased by 0.89%. The trading volume of soybean meal was 410,000 tons per day, and the inventory was 1.0505 million tons per week [11]. - **Macro and industry news**: On January 8, CBOT soybeans slightly declined due to lower - than - expected export sales. As of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased by 26% from the previous week and 42% from the four - week average [11][13]. Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%; the closing price of C2603 was 2,266 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.52%, and the night - session decreased by 0.13%. The trading volume of C2603 increased by 35,209 lots, and the position increased by 22,891 lots; the trading volume of C2605 increased by 2,930 lots, and the position increased by 14,570 lots [15]. - **Macro and industry news**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained stable, the Guangdong Shekou price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, the Northeast deep - processing corn price was stable with a slight increase, and the North China corn price slightly increased [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01; the mainstream spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the futures main contract price was 5,279 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 [18]. - **Macro and industry news**: As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 24% year - on - year; Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% increase year - on - year; China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [18]. Cotton - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.96%, and the night - session decreased by 0.20%; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,795 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.21%, and the night - session decreased by 0.07%. The trading volume of CF2605 increased by 49,121 lots, and the position decreased by 46,452 lots; the trading volume of CY2603 decreased by 1,999 lots, and the position increased by 1,045 lots [24]. - **Macro and industry news**: The cotton spot trading improved but not significantly, and the cotton textile enterprise's demand was weak, with some weaving factories planning to have an early holiday at the end of this month [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,980 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the trading volume decreased by 284 lots, and the position decreased by 5,335 lots; the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,009 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the trading volume increased by 22,051 lots, and the position increased by 284 lots [29]. - **Macro and industry news**: No relevant content provided. Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,950 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,760 yuan/ton. The closing price of live pig 2603 was 11,785 yuan/ton, the closing price of live pig 2605 was 12,260 yuan/ton, and the closing price of live pig 2607 was 12,940 yuan/ton [33]. - **Macro and industry news**: Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of PK603 was 8,046 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,986 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume of PK603 decreased by 68,988 lots, and the position increased by 2,854 lots; the trading volume of PK605 decreased by 12,710 lots, and the position increased by 2,571 lots [37]. - **Macro and industry news**: The spot prices of peanuts in various regions were basically stable, with small changes in the amount of goods on the market and demand [38].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The silver has reached a phased peak, with increasing pressure on bulls to drive up prices, and the conditions for further upward breakthrough are becoming more demanding. Thus, the silver trend - long strategy is worth exiting [1]. - The current decline and adjustment of silver do not represent the end of the long - term trend. However, the current point has a poor risk - reward ratio, and the adjustment is not over. It still requires the spot market to ferment again to drive up the futures price [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Silver Price Analysis - Several recent changes in silver indicate a short - term price pressure: domestic spot premium has eased, overseas silver lease rate has dropped from over 8% to 4.46% for 1M and the term structure has changed from back to contango; the domestic - overseas price difference has converged; the exchange has tightened risk control on silver, curbing bullish sentiment. Also, the BCOM weight adjustment on January 8 and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs may affect the silver market [1]. Investment Strategy - For on - exchange options, as the implied volatility of silver options is falling in line with the price, one can consider selling out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility premium. To hedge against the risk of further price increases, one can buy a small amount of in - the - money call options [3]. - For off - exchange options, customers planning to bet on short - term pullbacks are advised to layout short - term, medium - range knock - out fixed - payout put options to profit from market fluctuations and can also build short positions at high prices [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that the silver has reached a phased peak, and the pressure for bulls to continue to push up prices is gradually increasing. The current spot tightness has reached a small peak after the New Year's Day, showing signs of weakness in both the capital and fundamental aspects. Therefore, the silver trend - long strategy is worth exiting [1]. - The current decline and adjustment of silver do not represent the end of the long - term trend. However, the current point has a poor profit - loss ratio, and the adjustment is not over. The spot market needs to ferment again to drive the futures price up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silver Price Analysis - There have been several changes in silver recently: the domestic spot premium has eased, the overseas silver lease rate has significantly dropped from over 8% to 4.46%, and the term structure has changed from back to contango; the internal - external price difference has converged, and the domestic premium has been continuously squeezed out; the exchange has strengthened risk control for silver, restricting the maximum number of open positions and dampening the enthusiasm of bulls. The ruling of the US Supreme Court on Trump's tariffs may be a key factor in falsifying the contradiction in the silver spot market [1]. Trend Judgment - In a macro - environment with good economic data, abundant liquidity and stable monetary policy expectations, the bottom of the commodity trend should be continuously rising. The current tense geopolitical situation is a long - term bullish factor, and the contradiction in the silver spot market still exists [2]. Option Strategies - For on - exchange options, the implied volatility of silver options is falling in a positive correlation with the price. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility premium income. If worried about the risk of the price continuing to soar, one can buy a small amount of in - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - For off - exchange options, for customers planning short - term bets on the callback opportunity, it is recommended to arrange a short - term and medium - range circuit - breaker fixed - payout put ladder option to increase income during the market oscillation period, and also build short positions rhythmically at high prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market sentiment has pushed up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their futures prices are oscillating upwards [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Mn44 lump ore is 43 yuan/ton - degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 03 futures price spread of ferrosilicon is - 510 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 350 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 spread of ferrosilicon is 28 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 20 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The 2603 spread between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is 140 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the 2605 spread is 188 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 is 5860 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 329,099, and the open interest is 245,565. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 is 5832 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan; the trading volume is 68,763, and the open interest is 60,892. The closing price of silicomanganese 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; the trading volume is 317,087, and the open interest is 284,324. The closing price of silicomanganese 2605 is 6020 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; the trading volume is 242,633, and the open interest is 253,950 [3]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On January 6, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5350 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon increased, with the range in different regions being 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon also increased by 10 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, both up 25 yuan/ton. An East - China steel mill set the price of silicomanganese at 5900 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 2000 tons. Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, and the purchase volume was 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [3]. - **Policy News**: From July 1, 2026, restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi will be charged an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh of electricity. Among the ferroalloy enterprises in Yulin, Shaanxi, 7 restricted - type ferrosilicon enterprises in Fugu and 2 in Shenmu are in operation. The current total daily output of ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 2535 tons, of which the daily output of restricted - type enterprises is 845 tons, accounting for 5.72% of the national total daily output [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and that of silicomanganese is also 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term pressure with sufficient spot supply and will experience a high - level sideways market [1] - PTA will be in a high - level sideways market [1] - MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX主力昨日收盘价7286，跌50，跌幅 - 0.68%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5150，涨跌0，涨跌幅0.00%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3879，涨41，涨幅1.07%；PF主力昨日收盘价6544，涨12，涨幅0.18%；SC主力昨日收盘价416.3，跌11.9，跌幅 - 2.78% [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR中国昨日价格899.67美元/吨，跌3；PTA华东昨日价格5095元/吨，涨15；MEG现货昨日价格3713元/吨，涨33；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格532.75美元/吨，跌1.5；Dated布伦特昨日价格61.89美元/桶，跌1.02 [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格363.88，涨7.92；PTA加工费昨日价格361.63，涨6.66；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64，跌21.37；瓶片加工费昨日价格43.68，跌25.41；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，涨跌0 [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market expects Venezuela's production to increase in the long - term, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On January 7, during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell after Trump said Venezuela would supply 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [3] - **PX**: In the physical market of PX, especially for February arrivals, there has been little improvement in the past few days. The floating price is weak, mainly due to the expected lack of buying interest during the Chinese Lunar New Year. The floating price for February arrivals is at a discount of about $3 per ton, and the discount for March is shallower [5] - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 74% as of 3:00 pm. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% as of 3:30 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The future supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is sufficient, which discounts the aromatics blending oil expectation for the 05 contract. The increase in near - end PX warehouse receipts restricts the performance of near - month contracts. The PXN spread has reached $366 per ton, and enterprises' hedging willingness has increased significantly. The PX industry has weakened, while the capital market has a strong overall expectation for the commodity market [7] - **PTA**: The cost is slightly weak, with a short - term correction and a high - level sideways market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, which is slightly high. The restart of some devices will increase the operating rate, and the overall operating rate will be maintained at about 78%. Although polyester production has decreased slightly, PTA is still in the process of destocking [7] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is still weak, and a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended. Although the coal - chemical products were strong due to the coal sector's movement, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still high, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from polyester is weakening, and the situation of oversupply cannot be changed in the medium term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on market dynamics, fundamental data, and industry news [2][4]. - Overall, most futures are expected to show short - term fluctuations, with some facing supply - demand pressures and others influenced by cost, inventory, and macro - factors [10][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: Crude oil prices declined due to the expected increase in Venezuelan production. PX physical market showed limited improvement, and polyester sales were mixed [6][8][10]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation with weakened industrial aspects. PTA is in a high - level oscillation with cost weakness. MEG has limited upside and remains under medium - term pressure [10][11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures showed changes in price, volume, and open interest. Spot prices of some rubber types increased, and Thai raw material prices rose [12][13][14]. - **Trend**: Rubber is expected to oscillate, supported by rising raw material costs and improved production orders [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of synthetic rubber changed. Spot prices of related products increased, and butadiene prices rose [15]. - **Trend**: Synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, driven by improved spot trading and cost - push from butadiene [16][17]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of LLDPE changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE shows a weak - stable basis. Supply - demand pressure may arise from high capacity and weakening demand [18][19]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PP changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [21]. - **Trend**: PP is boosted by macro - sentiment, but fundamental improvement is limited due to weak demand and high cost [21][22]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of caustic soda are provided, with a negative basis [24]. - **Trend**: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of pulp changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [30]. - **Trend**: Pulp is expected to oscillate, with cost support and weak demand in a state of game [31][32]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of glass changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest increased [34]. - **Trend**: Glass prices are stable, with limited sales improvement during the holiday [34]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of methanol changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [37]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to oscillate and decline, with coastal ports accumulating inventory and weakening basis [39]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of urea changed. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [42]. - **Trend**: Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a potential mid - term upward shift in the center, supported by agricultural demand expectations [43][44]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and profit margins of styrene changed. Spot prices and inventory levels are provided [45]. - **Trend**: Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with high valuation and potential short - selling opportunities [46]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of soda ash changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [51]. - **Trend**: The spot market of soda ash has little change, with high supply and weak demand [51]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of LPG and propylene changed. Spot prices and spreads are provided [56]. - **Trend**: LPG has a firm import cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. Propylene demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising [55][56]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PVC changed [64]. - **Trend**: PVC's short - term rebound is difficult to sustain due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, but potential supply - side improvements may occur in the future [64][65]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [68]. - **Trend**: Fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation with support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced fluctuations, and the high - low sulfur spread in the spot market continues to narrow [68]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) changed [70]. - **Trend**: The freight rate peak has emerged. It is advisable to wait and see for the 02 contract and short at high prices for the 04 contract [70][79][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of short - fiber and bottle chip changed. Sales rates are provided [84]. - **Trend**: Both short - fiber and bottle chip are expected to oscillate in the short - term [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices, cost - profit data, and futures prices of offset printing paper are provided [87]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable spot prices and poor market demand [88][90]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of pure benzene changed. Inventory levels are provided [91]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increasing port inventory [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of freight rates for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) has emerged. For the EC2602 contract, it is advisable to wait and see, while for the EC2604 contract, consider shorting at high prices. The 2602 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1750 - 1900 points in the short term, and the 2604 and 2610 contracts should be approached with a strategy of shorting at high prices [1][12][13]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1,779.1, down 3.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 43,604 and an open interest of 21,811, a decrease of 3,185. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,182.0, down 1.92%, with a trading volume of 22,083 and an open interest of 26,339, an increase of 2,409 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Line Freight Rates**: Different carriers' spot European line freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for $/40'GP ranging from 2,610 to 3,510 and for $/20'GP from 1,533 to 2,255 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.74, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.98 [1]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **News and Market Reaction**: After the market closed on Wednesday, MSK's fourth - week cabin opening continued to rise slightly, driving the market up on Thursday morning. Later, Yang Ming and Maersk adjusted their prices, causing the 2602 contract to decline mainly due to long - position liquidation after the peak, and the 2604 contract to decline mainly due to short - position increase [10]. - **Capacity Changes**: In the fourth week, the PA Alliance's FE4 route changed from normal operation to a blank sailing, and in the fifth week, Evergreen's CES route changed from a blank sailing to normal operation. The CES sailings in the sixth and seventh weeks were delayed by one week. The weekly average capacity in January was about 310,000 TEU, and in February, it was 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of 4 pending voyages) [10][11]. 3. Contract Valuation Analysis - **2602 Contract**: Its valuation depends on freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 1900 - 2000 point range of the SCFIS index is estimated based on the static quotes of major carriers. After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be significant, and the short - term valuation center is expected to oscillate between 1750 - 1900 points [12]. - **2604 Contract**: April is a traditional off - season for the European line. With the supply - demand situation further relaxing and the freight rate center moving down, the valuation of the 2604 contract is expected to be lower than that of the 2510 contract. It is recommended to short at high prices [13]. - **2610 Contract**: Due to geopolitical risks such as Iran's missile reconstruction and Israel's strike signals, the market's resumption of navigation expectations has declined. In the short term, focus on capital games, and in the long term, maintain a strategy of shorting at high prices [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 7, 2026, the four major index futures contracts showed mixed performance. IF and IH declined, while IC and IM rose. The trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM also decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 7, the closing price of CSI 300 was 4776.7, down 0.29%; IF2601 closed at 4772.8, down 0.26%. The closing price of SSE 50 was 3145.1, down 0.43%; IH2601 closed at 3144.4, down 0.29%. The closing price of CSI 500 was 7875.1, up 0.68%; IC2601 closed at 7869.6, up 0.68%. The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7906.4, up 0.53%; IM2601 closed at 7882, up 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 23622 lots, IH by 14948 lots, IC by 17874 lots, and IM by 22592 lots. The total positions of IF decreased by 7604 lots, IH by 8228 lots, IC by 888 lots, and IM by 2026 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts varied. For example, the basis of IF2601 was -3.87, and that of IC2601 was -5.48 [1]. 3.2. Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: The long - positions of IF2601 decreased by 3769 lots, IF2603 by 1732 lots, and IF2606 by 213 lots. The short - positions of IF2601 decreased by 3502 lots, IF2603 by 3798 lots, and IF2606 increased by 282 lots [5]. - **IH Contracts**: The long - positions of IH2601 decreased by 2731 lots, IH2603 by 3815 lots, and IH2606 increased by 83 lots. The short - positions of IH2601 decreased by 2879 lots, IH2603 by 3742 lots, and IH2606 increased by 162 lots [5]. - **IC Contracts**: The long - positions of IC2601 decreased by 3387 lots, IC2602 increased by 1349 lots, IC2603 increased by 1391 lots, and IC2606 increased by 1083 lots. The short - positions of IC2601 decreased by 3051 lots, IC2602 increased by 1484 lots, IC2603 decreased by 79 lots, and IC2606 increased by 1251 lots [5]. - **IM Contracts**: The long - positions of IM2601 decreased by 2700 lots, IM2602 increased by 2885 lots, and IM2603 decreased by 755 lots. The short - positions of IM2601 decreased by 2812 lots, IM2602 increased by 2946 lots, and IM2603 decreased by 2494 lots [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4. Important Drivers - **Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'", aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence by 2027 [7]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A - shares fluctuated and rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05% to 4085.77 points, achieving a 14 - day consecutive rise. Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.94% to 26458.95 points. U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.94%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rising 0.16% [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].