1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 8, 2026, and for the month of January 2026. It also presents macro - economic news and trading - related information to assist investors in making decisions [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook 3.1.1 January 8, 2026 Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold (AU2602) is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; silver (AG2604) is expected to decline weakly; platinum (PT2606) and palladium (PD2606) are expected to rise strongly [2]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper (CU2602), aluminum (AL2602), alumina (AO2605), nickel (NI2602), and tin (SN2602) are expected to decline weakly [2]. - **Other Futures**: Carbonate lithium (LC2605) is expected to rise strongly with wide - range fluctuations; rebar (RB2605) is expected to fluctuate widely; iron ore (I2605) is expected to fluctuate widely; coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rise slightly [2]. 3.1.2 January 2026 Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: The main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to rise slightly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [5]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: The main continuous contracts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are expected to rise slightly, with gold and silver likely to reach new highs since listing [5]. - **Base Metals Futures**: The main continuous contracts of copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, and tin are expected to rise slightly, with copper, aluminum, and alumina likely to reach new highs since listing [5]. - **Other Futures**: The main continuous contract of carbonate lithium is expected to rise slightly; the trends of rebar, iron ore, and coking coal are adjusted, with resistance and support levels also adjusted [5]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten - year high, and gold reserves increased for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3579 trillion US dollars, and gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces [6]. - The US "small non - farm" employment data in December 2025 showed a mild recovery, and the ISM service industry PMI index rose to the highest level since October 2024 [8]. - The initial value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations [9]. 3.3 Trading - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for silver and tin futures, including position limits, handling fees, and price limit ranges [10]. - Key coking enterprises agreed to actively limit production, reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal, and stabilize prices [10]. - Oil prices declined due to expected increased supply from Venezuela; international precious metals futures generally declined; London base metals mostly declined [10][11].

2026 年 01 月 08 日 铝：小幅回落 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 【综合快讯】 1. "小非农"温和复苏，美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数增长 4.1 万，扭转 11 月下滑但低于增幅预期。美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数温和增长，劳动力需求仍偏弱，12 月 ADP 私营部门就业增加人数低于经济学家预期的 5 万。（华尔街见闻） 2. 美国 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 54.4 创一年多新高，需求稳健，招聘回暖。美国 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下自 2024 年 9 月以来的最大水平， 需求回暖推动服务业就业出现自 2 月以来最为健康的增长，价格上涨速度降至九个月来的最慢。（华尔街见 闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that platinum is in a state of shock to find direction, and palladium maintains a shock state [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 598.50, with a decline of 2.97%; the price of gold - exchange platinum was 605.53, with no change; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2290.40, with a decline of 6.74%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2289.70, with a decline of 4.58%. The price of palladium futures 2606 was 475.95, with an increase of 0.86%; the RMB spot palladium was 434.00, with an increase of 3.09%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1817.00, with a decline of 3.96%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1767.50, with a decline of 3.39% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum (kg) was 82,828, an increase of 17,632 compared with the previous day, and the position was 41,037, a decrease of 1,130. The trading volume of NYMEX platinum (kg) was 59,305, an increase of 2,751, and the position was 107,002, an increase of 899. The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium (kg) was 44,238, an increase of 8,209, and the position was 15,106, a decrease of 1,227. The trading volume of NYMEX palladium (kg) was 28,313, a decrease of 635, and the position was 57,529 [2]. - **ETF Position**: The platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,307,142, a decrease of 3,425; the palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,175,361, an increase of 3,495 [2]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 645,366, with no change; the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 211,306, with no change [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was 7.03, an increase of 18.30 compared with the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract and 2610 contract was - 3.95, a decrease of 1.50. The cross - period arbitrage cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 7.37, a decrease of 0.22. The spread between the Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 16.54, an increase of 9.18. The spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 41.95, with no change; the spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was - 4.35, with no change; the cross - period arbitrage cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 was 5.91, with no change; the spread between the Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 27, an increase of 15.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.74, an increase of 0.14%. The US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 7.00, an increase of 0.15%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.99, an increase of 0.14%; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.91, an increase of 0.06% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Zelensky said that the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [5]. - Sources said that 50 million barrels are only the first batch, and Venezuela will supply oil to the US indefinitely. The White House plans to reduce sanctions against it [5]. - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US government plans to control Venezuela's future oil sales and hopes to fill the strategic petroleum reserve [5]. - Trump said that Venezuela's oil revenue will only be used to buy US - made products [5]. - The US said it seized a Russian - flagged oil tanker "Bella 1" related to Venezuela and an un - flagged oil tanker named "Sophia" [5]. - Trump said that the military budget in 2027 should be $1.5 trillion instead of $1 trillion [5]. - The US ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than the market - expected median of 47,000 [5]. - Traders reduced their bets on the European Central Bank's monetary policy, expecting the first interest rate hike to be in March 2027 [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 8, with a term of 3 months [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 08 日 铜：LME 现货升水下滑，价格上涨放缓 宏观方面，美国"小非农"12 月 ADP 就业人数增长 4.1 万，扭转 11 月下滑但低于增幅预期；美 11 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至一年多低点、四年来首次少于失业数，招聘放缓；美 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 54.4 创一 年多新高，需求稳健，招聘回暖。（华尔街见闻） 工信部等八部门：加速智能终端升级，到 2027 年中国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给。（华 尔街见闻） 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 103,410 | -1.81% | 102030 | -1.33% | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,866 | -2.93% | - | - | | 昨日成交 | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 沪铜指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the tin market, showing that long - position funds faced obstacles, leading to a price increase followed by a decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050 with a daily increase of 2.93%, and the night - session closing price was 355,170 with a - 0.28% change compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650 with a 0.34% increase [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924 from the previous day, and the position was 43,969, an increase of 2,774. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the position was 13,988, an increase of 53 [1]. - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780, a decrease of 306, and the inventory of LME Tin was 5,405, a decrease of 15. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [1]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 355,950, an increase of 14,900 from the previous day; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 357,300, an increase of 15,200 [1]. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 65, a decrease of 35; the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was 162,370, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 8,480, an increase of 750 [1]. - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 343,950, an increase of 14,900; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 347,950, an increase of 14,900 [1]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 237,250, an increase of 9,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 227,250, an increase of 9,000 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The memory market has entered a "super bull market" with a 40% - 50% increase expected in Q1 [2]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aim to accelerate the industrialization and commercialization of new terminals such as AR/VR wearable devices and brain - computer interfaces [2]. - The People's Bank of China carried out 110 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on January 8 [2]. - The US will "distribute on commission" Venezuelan oil and requires Venezuela to cut economic ties with China and Russia [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 representing the most bearish and 2 representing the most bullish [2][3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The hot - rolled coil market is affected by market sentiment, with the futures price showing a strong upward trend. The trend strength of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is rated as "1", indicating a relatively neutral - to - strong trend [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - For the RB2605 rebar futures, the closing price was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87% from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,937,222 lots, and the open interest was 1,741,383 lots, an increase of 178,435 lots [2] - For the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures, the closing price was 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. The trading volume was 943,506 lots, and the open interest was 1,377,887 lots, an increase of 103,802 lots [2] Spot Market - In different regions, rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices all increased compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 30 to 50 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,950 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 133 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 29 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 decreased by 28 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270,000 tons or 3.6%, a decrease of 1.12 million tons or 13.4% compared to late November, and an increase of 620,000 tons or 9.4% compared to the same period of the previous year [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 31, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,700 tons, and the total production of the five major varieties increased by 183,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 122,200 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 62,600 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 258,400 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand decreased by 22,400 tons, hot - rolled coil demand increased by 37,300 tons, and the total demand increased by 74,100 tons [3][4] - In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.45 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; 16.81 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.681 million tons, a 1.9% decrease; and 18.03 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.803 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.01 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons or 8.6% from the previous ten - day period [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2%, with an average price of $1,593/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $31.1/ton or 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 680,000 tons or 11.9% [4]

Group 1: Report's Overall Rating and Core View - The investment rating of the methanol industry is "Oscillating and Declining" [1] - The core view is that the domestic methanol market continues regional adjustment. After the futures oscillate at a high level and decline, there is a slight rebound. Coastal ports accumulate inventory as expected, the near - end follows demand, and the basis weakens. Due to poor MTO profits, the operation dynamics of some projects need to be closely monitored. The follow - up situation in the inland market is okay in the morning, but the actual buying and reselling sentiment weakens again as the market declines, and the trading is in a weak stalemate in the afternoon [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main 05 - contract is 2,267 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price is 2,280 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the trading volume is 1,857,665 lots, an increase of 251,745 lots; the open interest is 818,847 lots, a decrease of 5,689 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,205 tons, unchanged; the trading volume in ten thousand yuan is 4,234,878, an increase of 599,234 [2] - The basis is 6, an increase of 31; the spread between MA01 and MA05 is - 32, a decrease of 7 [2] Spot Market - The price in Inner Mongolia is 1,835 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi is 1,870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong is 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index is 2003.94, down 4.02. Among them, the Taicang spot price is 2,273, up 8; the northern Inner Mongolia price is 1,842.5, down 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 3 cities have different degrees of decline, with a decline range of 7.5 - 20 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 million tons, an increase of 4.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. This week, the methanol port inventory continues to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The visible foreign vessel unloading within the cycle is 22.71 million tons. The pick - up in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remains robust. The opening of the inland delivery space leads to weak shipments in the coastal side - warehouses. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrive at ports intensively, and the inventory accumulates significantly with stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreases slightly this week. In Guangdong, there is a small amount of imported and domestic trade vessel replenishment within the cycle. Affected by holidays, the pick - up volume in the main storage areas decreases, and the inventory fluctuates little. In Fujian, there are no vessels arriving at ports this week, and the inventory shows a decline under the downstream rigid - demand consumption [4][5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

2026 年 01 月 08 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260108 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260108 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF02-03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -14 | 3 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 116315 | 165849 | -49534 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 530 | 6, 535 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 126634 | ...

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Silicon Material Production Cut, Short at High Levels" and "Polysilicon: Greatly Affected by News" [1][2] - The core view is that for industrial silicon, with silicon material production cuts, it's advisable to short at high levels; polysilicon is greatly affected by news [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,980 yuan/ton, with a change trend compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Si2605 trading volume is 477,386 lots, with significant changes over different time periods [2] - Si2605 open interest is 244,734 lots, showing different change trends [2] - PS2605 closing price is 58,300 yuan/ton, down 1,065 yuan from T - 1 [2] - PS2605 trading volume is 20,581 lots, with a large decrease compared to T - 5 [2] - PS2605 open interest is 67,800 lots, showing a downward trend [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount has different values when benchmarked against different products, such as +270 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1 and T - 5, but a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 22 [2] - Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 53500 yuan/ton, with an increase compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit for Xinjiang new standard 553 is - 2346.5 yuan/ton, showing different change trends [2] - Silicon plant profit for Yunnan new standard 553 is - 4654 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.1 yuan/kg, showing an increasing trend [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, with a change of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 5 [2] - Industrial silicon enterprise inventory is 20.2 million tons, up 0.68 million tons compared to T - 5 [2] - Industrial silicon industry inventory is 75.9 million tons, showing an increase [2] - Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt inventory is 5.4 million tons, with a certain change trend [2] - Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 30.6 million tons, showing an upward trend [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan have different values and change trends [2] - Wash coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia remain unchanged [2] - Petroleum coke prices of Maoming Coke and Yangtze Coke show no change [2] - Electrode prices of graphite electrode and carbon electrode remain stable [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have different values and change trends [2] Organic Silicon - DMC price is 13600 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to T - 22 [2] - DMC enterprise profit is 1560 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend [2] Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 price is 23700 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend [2] - Recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 440 yuan/ton, with different change trends [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On December 5, 2025, the Shanxi Provincial People's Government released a proposal to promote energy transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, aiming to transform from a coal - rich province to an energy - strong province [2][4] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is - 1, indicating different market outlooks [4]

Report Overview - **Report Date**: January 8, 2026 [1] - **Report Title**: Lithium Carbonate: High-level Volatility, Focus on Market Sentiment Changes [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on tracking the fundamental data of lithium carbonate and presenting relevant macro and industry news, but does not put forward a clear core view [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts were 139,960 yuan and 142,300 yuan respectively, showing an increase compared to previous periods. The trading volume and open interest of the two contracts also changed significantly. For example, the trading volume of the 2605 contract was 420,407, with an increase of 116,170 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 133,500 yuan, with an increase of 6,000 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis between spot and futures contracts also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other raw materials all increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,770 yuan, with an increase of 130 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The prices of various lithium salts and related products such as battery-grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials also showed different trends. For example, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 128,300 yuan, with an increase of 6,500 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Price Increase of Lithium Carbonate**: The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 132,231 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6,226 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 133,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Tendering Situation in the Energy Storage Market**: In December 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed a total of 22.5GW/55.8GWh of EPC general contracting tendering work for energy storage systems and equipment, with independent energy storage projects accounting for 90%. In addition, 2GWh of DC-side and 2GWh of energy storage cell procurement orders were finalized [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral state [3].