Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Excess persists [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Cost-supported [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices, costs, and inventories [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,785 yuan, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,705 US dollars, up 16 US dollars [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,931 yuan, down 14 yuan; the trading volume was 433,801 lots, down 15,367 lots [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,320 yuan, down 140 yuan; the trading volume was 277 lots, down 2,006 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 636,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 513,900 tons, up 30,100 tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,066 yuan, down 7 yuan; the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 349 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 0 yuan, down 141 yuan; the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,400 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. Other Information - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, China's holdings hit a new low in over sixteen years, and Canada's holdings decreased sharply by 57.1 billion US dollars [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. Each commodity is given a short - term trend judgment such as "oscillating adjustment", "weakly oscillating", etc. [2][5] - The trend intensity of each commodity is also provided, with values ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), helping investors understand the strength of the expected price trends. [10][14] 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 824.10, down 1.31%. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: It is in an oscillating adjustment phase. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2510 was 9808, down 0.97%. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The increase in domestic spot premium restricts price decline. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,580, down 1.22%. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: It shows a weakly oscillating trend. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22045, down 1.05%. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17145, up 0.26%. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 269,100, down 1.26%. [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20785, down 125. [2][26][28] - **Alumina**: The surplus situation persists. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - **Nickel**: The contradictions at the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the ore end. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 120,940, down 850. [2][29][35] - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of不锈钢主力 was 12,875, down 60. [2][29][35] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production reaches a new high, and inventory is being depleted. It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. [2][36][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Si2511 was 8,905, down 60. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment may cool down. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of PS2511 was 53,205, down 285. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of 12601 was 804.5, up 1.0. [2][43] - **Rebar**: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,147, down 8. [2][45][48] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,354, down 30. [2][46][48] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of硅铁2511 was 5756, down 10. [2][50][52] - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of锰硅2511 was 5948, down 14. [2][50][52] - **Coke**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of J2601 was 1709, down 25.5. [2][53][55] - **Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of JM2601 was 1203.5, down 29.5. [2][54][55] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of 2511合约 was 801.5, down 0.9%. [2][56][59] - **Para - Xylene**: It remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - **PTA**: Maintenance increases, processing fees are restored, but it remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - **MEG**: Reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread. [2][60] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is no obvious driving force for both upward and downward movements, and the main strategy is range - bound operation. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Exports have reappeared, and it is recommended to go long on dips. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: It oscillates at a low level and may rebound from oversold conditions. [5] - **Soybean**: It oscillates at a low level. [5] - **Corn**: It oscillates. [5] - **Sugar**: It oscillates downward. [5] - **Cotton**: The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listings. [5] - **Egg**: The spot market is weak. [5] - **Live Pig**: Expectations have turned pessimistic, and the trends of basis and spreads are confirmed. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Weak and volatile" [1] 2. Core View - The zinc market shows a weak and volatile trend, with various indicators such as prices, trading volumes, and inventories experiencing different degrees of changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,045 yuan/ton, down 1.05%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,943 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 113,236 lots, an increase of 16,982 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 14,598 lots, an increase of 3,248 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 109,570 lots, an increase of 31,476 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 213,374 lots, a decrease of 2,995 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 38 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 54,241 tons, an increase of 1,521 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons [1] 3.2 News - The Bank of England maintained the interest rate unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening to 70 billion pounds, while being cautious about further interest rate cuts this year due to concerns about inflation rebound [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a weak trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Gold: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. [2] - Silver: It will undergo a volatile adjustment. [2][5] - Copper: The increase in domestic spot premiums restricts price declines. [2][10] - Zinc: It will experience a weak and volatile trend. [2][13] - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. [2][16] - Tin: It will trade within a range. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will trade within a range. [2][24] - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists. [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: There is cost support. [2][24] - Nickel: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent. Attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. [2][27] - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. [2][27] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 824.10, with a daily decline of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 828.08, with a decline of 0.71%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - **Macroeconomic News**: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [5][9] Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9808, with a daily decline of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price was 9902.00, with a decline of 0.06%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - **Macroeconomic News**: Similar to gold, including the Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and US Treasury bond holdings. [5][9] Base Metals Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 79,580, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and the night - session closing price was 79660, with an increase of 0.10%. The trend strength is 0. [10][12] - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is still shut down for rescue. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. Codelco and Escondida's copper production increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production is expected to decline in September. [10][12] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045, with a decline of 1.05%. The trend strength is - 1. [13][15] - **News**: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. [14] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17145, with an increase of 0.26%. The trend strength is 0. [16][17] - **News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. [17] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,100, with a decline of 1.26%, and the night - session closing price was 267,840, with a decline of 0.89%. The trend strength is 0. [20][23] - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and other news. [21][22] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20785, down 125. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2931, down 6. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20320, down 140. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. [24][26] - **News**: Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,940, down 850. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,875, down 60. The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0. [27][33] - **Industry News**: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is higher than in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production. Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB. A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance. The Indonesian president will punish illegal mining. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a nickel - mining area. [27][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main - contract prices. It expects that stock index futures, gold, silver, and PVC futures will have a strong - side shock, while crude oil and natural rubber futures will have a weak - side shock. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a wide - range shock, and other futures will either have a shock consolidation or a wide - range shock [1][2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 19, it is expected to have a strong - side shock. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4495 and 4550 points, and support levels are 4413 and 4382 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2955 and 2981 points, and support levels are 2873 and 2855 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 7150 and 7200 points, and support levels are 6881 and 6785 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7316 and 7460 points, and support levels are 7131 and 7086 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 19, the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 108.17 and 108.32 yuan, and support levels at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is also likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, and support levels at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [3][35][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 19, the gold futures main contract AU2512 is likely to have a strong - side shock, with resistance levels at 834.0 and 838.1 yuan/gram, and support levels at 824.9 and 820.0 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2512 is also likely to have a strong - side shock, with resistance levels at 9944 and 9999 yuan/kilogram, and support levels at 9835 and 9799 yuan/kilogram [3][43][47]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 19, the copper futures main contract CU2511 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 79400 and 79200 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 79900 and 80000 yuan/ton. The aluminum futures main contract AL2511 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 20700 and 20650 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton. The alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with resistance levels at 2960 and 2989 yuan/ton, and support levels at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][50][55]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: On September 19, the crude oil futures main contract SC2511 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 485 and 480 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 497 and 500 yuan/barrel. The PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a strong - side shock and will attack the resistance levels of 4975 and 5000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 4923 and 4891 yuan/ton. The natural rubber futures main contract RU2601 is likely to have a weak - side shock and will test the support levels of 15330 and 15210 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 15670 and 15750 yuan/ton [4][5][92][97][99]. - **Building Materials and Steel Futures**: On September 19, the rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 3123 and 3101 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3166 and 3180 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 3335 and 3314 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3370 and 3388 yuan/ton. The iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 809 and 815 yuan/ton, and support levels at 796 and 789 yuan/ton. The coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with support levels at 1188 and 1166 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1223 and 1238 yuan/ton. The glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 1194 and 1176 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1212 and 1226 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with resistance levels at 1318 and 1325 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1297 and 1289 yuan/ton [3][4][67][72][74]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On September 19, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2511 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 74100 and 75100 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 70300 yuan/ton [62]. 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - **Trade - related**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on the TikTok issue and the EU's anti - subsidy tax on Chinese electric vehicles. It also mentioned the anti - dumping investigation on EU pork products [6][7]. - **Science and Technology Investment**: In the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment increased, with the total R & D investment in 2024 exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020. The R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries. The DeepSeek - R1 reasoning model research paper was on the cover of "Nature", marking China's AI technology getting the highest recognition in the international scientific community [7][8]. - **Business and Economy**: The "2025 China's Top 500 Service Enterprises" were released, with the total operating income of the short - listed enterprises in 2024 reaching 51.1 trillion yuan. Beijing and Shanghai announced the upper and lower limits of social security contribution bases for 2025. The Shanghai government plans to support high - growth enterprises, offering up to 100,000 yuan in rewards for gazelle enterprises and up to 200,000 yuan for unicorn enterprises [7]. - **International Cooperation and Investment**: The US and the UK signed a science and technology cooperation agreement. BP plans to invest over 3.6 billion pounds in the US annually for the next five years, and CoreWeave will invest 1.5 billion pounds in the UK [8]. - **Employment and Unemployment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. However, the number of continued unemployment claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. - **US Government Fund**: The US government is promoting a $5 - billion mineral investment fund [9]. - **UK Central Bank Policy**: The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds in the next 12 months [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Iron Ore Index**: The Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association arranged the launch of the import iron ore port spot price index [9]. - **International Precious Metal Futures**: On September 18, international precious metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce [10]. - **International Crude Oil Futures**: On September 18, international oil prices fell slightly. The US crude oil main contract fell 0.61% to $63.31 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.73% to $66.97 per barrel [10]. - **London Base Metals**: On September 18, most London base metals fell. LME tin fell 1.73% to $33750 per ton, LME zinc fell 1.04% to $2913 per ton, LME copper fell 0.50% to $9946 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.45% to $15335 per ton, LME lead fell 0.42% to $2004 per ton, and LME aluminum rose 0.82% to $2705 per ton [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly, reaching the largest decline in nearly four years, but the number of continued claims remained above the key level of 1.9 million, reflecting a complex labor - market situation [7]. - For the Container Freight Index (Europe Line), the 2510 contract is under pressure, while the 2512 and 2602 contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2510 contract's delivery settlement price is likely to be within 1100 points [8][9]. - Treasury futures may have a slight short - term recovery but maintain a bearish and volatile view. There are structural opportunities in the bond market in the next six months, and systematic trend opportunities may come after the next fundamental high [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Labor Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, down 32,000 from the previous week, with the largest decline in nearly four years. The continued claims remained above 1.9 million, and the decline was mainly due to the normalization of abnormal data in Texas, related to seasonal personnel changes in the education system [7]. 3.2 Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **2510 Contract**: It is expected to operate under pressure. The price - list center for weeks 39 - 41 may fall to the range of $1450 - 1500 per FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1015 - 1050 points. The delivery settlement price is likely to be within 1100 points [8]. - **2512 Contract**: Shipping companies may try to increase freight rates from November to December. However, there are two negative factors in December this year compared to last year, so it should be treated with a wide - range fluctuation mindset [9]. - **2602 Contract**: The Spring Festival in 2026 is later than in 2025. Historically, in years with a late Spring Festival, the 02 contract may not be at a discount to the 12 contract. Strategies include considering long - term positive spreads between 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 [9]. 3.3 Treasury Futures - They are expected to have a slight short - term recovery but maintain a bearish and volatile view. Three factors contribute to the weak trend: policy orientation favoring stocks over bonds, the improvement of inflation expectations, and the negative feedback path from institutional redemptions to shifts in self - operated institutions and household wealth transfers. There are structural opportunities in the bond market in the next six months [11]. 3.4 Commodity Futures - **Precious Metals**: Gold's FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and silver is in a shock - adjustment phase [16][20][21]. - **Base Metals**: Copper's domestic spot premium has risen, limiting price declines; zinc is weakly volatile; lead's price is supported by inventory reduction; tin is in a range - bound fluctuation; aluminum is in a range - bound fluctuation, alumina still has an oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost [16][26][29][32][35][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Industrial silicon should be shorted on rallies; polycrystalline silicon's short - term sentiment may cool down; iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon ferroalloy, manganese ferroalloy, coke, and coking coal are all expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [16][54][55][58][60][61][65][68][69]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has no obvious upward or downward drivers and is suitable for range trading; soybean oil can be bought on dips; soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions; corn is in a volatile state; sugar is in a downward - volatile trend; cotton market focuses on new cotton listings; eggs' spot market is weak; the outlook for hogs has turned pessimistic; peanuts should be watched for new peanut listings [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - PX is expected to remain weak in the medium term due to low profits and increased maintenance in downstream PTA, leading to a marginal easing of PX supply [1][11] - PTA's short - term processing fee for 01/05 contracts may rebound, but the unilateral trend remains weak. With limited room for polyester load increase and expected weakening demand in Q4, the medium - term trend may be weak after the end - September restocking [1][11] - MEG's valuation has recovered in the short term, but the medium - term unilateral trend may still be weak. A 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [1][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6684, 4666, 4268, 6344, and 491.8 respectively, with fluctuations of - 1.30%, - 0.98%, - 0.67%, - 0.91%, and - 1.50% [2] - The price differences between different contract months of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC all showed declines compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - Yesterday's PX CFR China price was 826.67 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from the previous day; PTA's East China price was 4626 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; MEG's spot price was 4362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] - PX - naphtha spread was 232.83 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars; PTA processing fee was 107.46 yuan/ton, down 16.52 yuan; short - fiber processing fee was 239.06 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan; bottle - chip processing fee was 82.22 yuan/ton, up 27.77 yuan; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged at - 6.01 dollars [2] Fundamental Data PX - Today's PX price dropped to 827 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars from yesterday. A 70 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is under maintenance for about 45 days, and two 70 - ton PX units in the East are expected to postpone maintenance to next year [4] PTA - As of Thursday, PTA load was 76.8%, and the operating rate was around 82.7%. Today's PTA spot price rose to 4630 yuan/ton [4] MEG - Today's MEG spot average price was 4362 yuan/ton. A 30 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for 20 - 30 days starting October 10. A 60 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based MEG unit in Xinjiang is restarting. As of September 18, the overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland was 74.93% (up 0.02% from the previous period), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based MEG was 79.38% (up 2.69% from the previous period) [5] Polyester - The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn plants remained stable at around 75%. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 60% [6] Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - The comprehensive operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 78%, 66%, and 72% respectively [7] - Downstream raw material inventory decreased. Some factories made rigid - demand purchases, some stocked up until late September or early October, and a few until late October [8] - New orders and shipments in the weaving sector were weak, and high inventory pressured fabric prices. Conventional fabric varieties still had nominal cash - flow losses [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 18, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. The IF dropped 1.35%, the IH fell 1.45%, the IC decreased 1%, and the IM declined 1.19%. In the short term, the stock index futures may rebound, and the slow - bull pattern in the trend is becoming clearer [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 57,520 lots, 35,836 lots, 72,444 lots, and 143,070 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 14,691 lots, 10,071 lots, 19,056 lots, and 25,806 lots respectively [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data - **September 18 Quotes**: The closing prices of the four major stock index futures all decreased. For example, the closing price of IF2509 was 4,487.2, down 1.35%; IH2509 was 2,910.8, down 1.45%; IC2509 was 7,171.6, down 1%; IM2509 was 7,454.8, down 1.19%. There were also corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased, and the total open interest also showed an upward trend [2][3]. 3.2 Long and Short Positions of Top 20 Members - For different contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, there were changes in the increase or decrease of long and short positions. For example, in IF2509, long positions decreased by 17,195, and short positions decreased by 18,103 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a certain degree of upward trend [7]. 3.4 Important Drivers - In the overseas market, chip stocks boosted the four major US stock indexes to record highs, while Chinese concept stocks declined. In the domestic A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64%. The trading volume reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has no obvious upward or downward drivers, and range trading is recommended [2][4]. - For soybean oil, exports have reappeared, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2][4]. - Soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation and may rebound from oversold conditions [2][8]. - Soybean No.1 is in a low - level oscillation [2][8]. - Corn is in an oscillatory operation [2][11]. - Sugar is oscillating downward [2][15]. - The market is concerned about the listing of new cotton [2][20]. - Egg spot prices are weak [2][24]. - The expectation for hogs has turned pessimistic, and the trends of basis and spreads are confirmed [2][26]. - Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][31]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,304 yuan/ton with a - 1.27% change, and night - session closing price was 9,342 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,284 yuan/ton with a - 0.98% change, and night - session closing price was 8,346 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: IGC expects the 2025/26 global soybean production to be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons; USDA shows about 36% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of September 16; CONAB predicts a 3.6% increase in Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's day - session closing price was 3904 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and night - session closing price was 3898 yuan/ton with a + 0.15% change; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session closing price was 2993 yuan/ton with a - 0.86% change, and night - session closing price was 2992 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 18, CBOT soybeans fell due to harvest pressure and a stronger dollar; as of September 11, 2025/26 US soybean net sales were 923,000 tons [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean No.1 trend intensities are both 0 [10]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's day - session closing price was 2,177 yuan/ton with a 0.65% change, and night - session closing price was 2,171 yuan/ton with a - 0.28% change; C2601's day - session closing price was 2,164 yuan/ton with a 0.42% change, and night - session closing price was 2,163 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some container prices in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [14]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 15.41 cents/pound with a - 0.1 change; the mainstream spot price was 5930 yuan/ton with a - 10 change; the futures main - contract price was 5474 yuan/ton with a - 55 change [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points; Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year; Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,765 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 13715 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change; CY2511's day - session closing price was 19,765 yuan/ton with a - 0.73% change, and night - session closing price was 19745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the market was waiting for new cotton; ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to a stronger dollar [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [23]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,043 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.65% change; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,418 yuan/500 kilograms with a 1.27% change [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [24]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price was 12930 yuan/ton with a - 50 change; Sichuan's spot price was 12550 yuan/ton with a - 250 change; Guangdong's spot price was 13560 yuan/ton with a - 400 change; Hog 2511's price was 12830 yuan/ton with a - 170 change [27]. - **Market Logic**: Group supplies have significantly decreased, but weights have increased again, and the spread between fat and lean prices has weakened; the market pressure is emerging, and the spot price center will move down [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 2 [28]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with no change; PK510's closing price was 7,844 yuan/ton with a 0.33% change; PK511's closing price was 7,858 yuan/ton with a 0.61% change [31]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply of dry peanuts is limited due to weather, and the market is generally stable [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most of them will experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2][4][6][7][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Outlook**: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.12%). The持仓量 increased by 2,092 hands. Among the spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 6.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [4] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Outlook**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar futures contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.25%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.89%). Spot prices in most regions decreased. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - **News**: Steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data were released on September 18. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. From January to August, national industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and retail sales data were also provided. Steel import and export data from January to August showed an increase in exports and a decrease in imports [8][9] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Outlook**: Market sentiment is repeated, with wide - range fluctuations [2][11][12] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5350 yuan/ton and 5730 yuan/ton respectively. Various price differences also changed [12] - **News**: On September 18, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the silicon - manganese tender volume in September compared to August, with a lower final price [12] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Outlook**: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals and cokes changed, and basis and spread values also had some adjustments [16] - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [16] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Market Outlook**: Expected to have repeated oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged, while some had small weekly increases [19] - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [21] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [21]