2025 年 9 月 19 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 硅铁：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 锰硅：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | | | 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 18 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5350-5400，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5350- 5400，内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6000-6050，宁夏 5900-6000（+100），青海 5950-6000 （+125），甘肃 5950-6000（+50），内蒙未报价（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1040- 1060，75#1100-1130（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5700-5800 元/吨；南方报价 5800- 5850 元/吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical futures, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market conditions. It offers short - term and medium - term outlooks for each commodity, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The mid - term trend is still weak. The downstream PTA has low profits and increased maintenance, leading to a marginal loosening of PX supply. Future attention should be paid to the maintenance time of Zhejiang Petrochemical's facilities and the impact of the shutdown of Shenghong's reforming unit [7][14]. - **PTA**: Although maintenance has increased and processing fees have been restored, the mid - term trend remains weak. The polyester load has limited room for improvement, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [7][14]. - **MEG**: A 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the mid - term unilateral trend may still be weak. The polyester start - up rate has reached its peak, and future demand is expected to decline [9][15]. 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supports the purchase price [16][19]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is under oscillatory pressure. The fundamentals of both synthetic rubber and butadiene face increased pressure, mainly from high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber has increased [21][23]. 3.3 Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to oscillate narrowly following the oil price. This week, the domestic asphalt device maintenance volume has increased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises has increased, and the shipment volume has increased [24][37]. 3.4 LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: It is expected to have a mid - term oscillatory market. Affected by macro - sentiment, it is short - term strong. The demand is gradually improving, and the supply pressure in the East China region may be alleviated in late September. The inventory pressure is not significant [39][40]. - **PP**: Caution is needed when short - selling at low levels in the later stage, and the mid - term may be an oscillatory market. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is still weak, and the supply pressure will further increase in the future [43][44]. 3.5 Caustic Soda and Pulp - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. Currently, the driving force for the rise is insufficient, but it will oscillate widely in the short - term due to anti - involution and anti - deflation sentiment [47][49]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The port inventory is at a medium level within the year, the supply pressure remains, the downstream demand is weak, and the pre - holiday stocking has not appeared [52][56]. 3.6 Glass and Methanol - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price is mainly stable, with some regional price differentiation. The downstream continues to purchase on a rigid - demand basis [57][58]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The port inventory is fluctuating narrowly, and the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic methanol market is slightly weak. The short - term main contract is under pressure in the range [60][64]. 3.7 Urea and Styrene - **Urea**: It is under oscillatory pressure. The overall inventory of urea is rising, and the spot trading has weakened. The mid - term oscillatory pressure logic remains unchanged [65][69]. - **Styrene**: The mid - term trend is bearish. The cost center has moved down due to OPEC's production increase, and the short - term downward space for pure benzene and styrene has gradually opened up [70][71]. 3.8 Soda Ash, LPG, and Propylene - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, with the supply increasing slightly and the downstream demand remaining stable [72][74]. - **LPG**: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and slightly strong oscillation. - **Propylene**: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short - term. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have changed [77][78]. 3.9 PVC, Fuel Oil, and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **PVC**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Although it is short - term strong due to anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the mid - term trend still faces pressure [87][88]. - **Fuel Oil**: It had a narrow - range oscillation at night and is in a short - term adjustment trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly weakened, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has narrowed [90]. 3.10 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2510 contract is under pressure, while the EC2512 and EC2602 contracts are expected to have wide - range oscillations [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is in a range - bound oscillation, with weekly production hitting a new high and inventory being depleted [1] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts Data**: - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 72,880, down 760 from T - 1; the volume was 502,269, up 158,406 from T - 1; the open interest was 281,411, down 13,213 from T - 1 [1] - For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 72,940, down 860 from T - 1; the volume was 107,180, up 34,164 from T - 1; the open interest was 172,012, down 3,395 from T - 1 [1] - **Other Data**: - The warehouse receipt volume was 39,354, up 120 from T - 1 [1] - The spot - 2511 was 570, down 490 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was 510, down 650 from T - 1 [1] - The 2511 - 2601 basis was - 60, down 160 from T - 1 [1] - The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - The spot - CIF was 6,991, up 278 from T - 1 [1] - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858, up 1 from T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450, up 300 from T - 1; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200, up 300 from T - 1 [1] - Other related lithium - salt and downstream product prices also had corresponding changes compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,464 yuan/ton, up 348 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [1] - This week's lithium carbonate production was 20,363 tons, up 400 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 137,531 tons, down 981 tons from last week [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]

2025 年 9 月 19 日 棕榈油：上下均无明显驱动，区间操作为主 豆油：出口重现，油脂回调布多 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,304 | -1.27% | 9,342 | 0.41% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,284 | -0.98% | 8,346 | 0.75% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,984 | -0.15% | 10,006 | 0.22% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,403 | -1.01% | 4,411 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.17 | -1.18% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 627,749 | -52883 | 423,179 | -12,824 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting industrial silicon at high prices and indicates that the short - term sentiment for polysilicon may cool down [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, profit, and raw material costs, and also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 (industrial silicon) had a closing price of 8,905 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 280 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 475,698 lots, and the open interest was 285,052 lots. PS2511 (polysilicon) had a closing price of 53,205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 285 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 505 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 198,758 lots, and the open interest was 122,834 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different changes compared to different benchmarks. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 445 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 15 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 330 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 200 yuan compared to T - 5, and 100 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 1,050 yuan compared to T - 5, and 5,600 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,366 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 21.9 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 330 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5 and T - 22. The price of washed coking coal in Ningxia was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1 and T - 5, and up 130 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was officially put into operation, which can transmit 36 - 40 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, meeting 1/6 of Hunan's electricity demand. Sungrow provided 1.27GW high - power string inverters for the Ningxia photovoltaic base of the project [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon was both - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium of copper has rebounded, limiting the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,580, down 1.22% during the day and up 0.10% at night to 79660. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,946, down 0.28% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,310, an increase of 27,376 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,604, a decrease of 6,478. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,733, a decrease of 12,807, and the open interest was 290,000, a decrease of 2,734 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 32,469, a decrease of 822, and the inventory of LME Copper was 148,875, a decrease of 900. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Copper was 9.03%, a decrease of 0.61% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes. For example, the spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 10 to 70 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][3]. - **Industry News**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia owned by Freeport McMoRan remains shut down as it continues to rescue seven workers trapped underground. Panama plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the复产 of the Cobre Panamá copper mine, with negotiations expected to start at the end of this year or early next year. In July, the copper production of Codelco and BHP's Escondida mine increased year - on - year, with Codelco producing 118,500 tons (up 6.4%) and Escondida producing 114,800 tons (up 7.8%). Chinese copper production increased slightly in August but is expected to decline in September due to routine maintenance and a shortage of anode copper supply. Ivanhoe Mines will announce the copper production guidance for Kamoa - Kakula in 2026 and 2027 after greater progress in the second - stage water - pumping work [1][3]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2. Core View - The market is pessimistic about the future of the pig industry. The spot price center will further decline, and the near - month contracts face high - capacity, high - inventory, and high - premium situations. The 11 - month contract is expected to see accelerated market competition. The 3 - month and 5 - month contracts may have a downward - moving center, and the 7 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short - term with a need to pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 12,830 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,330 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 57,106 lots, down 2,628 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 98,989 lots, up 4,913 lots; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 25,304 lots, down 382 lots, and an open interest of 66,666 lots, up 4,610 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 9,762 lots, up 4,096 lots, and an open interest of 42,992 lots, up 3,613 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 100 yuan/ton, compared to 120 yuan/ton previously; the pig 2601 contract basis is - 400 yuan/ton, compared to 130 yuan/ton previously; the pig 2603 contract basis is 75 yuan/ton, compared to 100 yuan/ton previously. The 11 - 1 spread is - 500 yuan/ton, compared to 10 yuan/ton previously, and the 1 - 3 spread is 475 yuan/ton, compared to - 30 yuan/ton previously [2]. 3.2 Market Logic - Group companies have significantly reduced supply, but the average weight has increased again, and the price spread between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory build - up. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and the market will face pressure due to the resonance of the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle from September to October. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, regional product and crude oil spreads, refining margins, other key spreads, and key market news. It suggests holding various long positions in crude oil lightly while testing support levels [1]. 3. Section Summaries Regional Product Spreads - **Gasoline**: The Atlantic Basin gasoline arbitrage window is slightly open, but the Mediterranean - New York, and Asia - Mexico routes are closed due to high costs and supply - demand situations [2]. - **Diesel**: The US Gulf - Western/Northern Europe and Arabian Gulf - Mediterranean routes are open, while others like Arabian Gulf - Northwest Europe are closed [2]. - **Aviation Fuel**: The Arabian Gulf - Mediterranean route is barely open, while most other routes are closed [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: All major routes are closed, with price differentials and high costs making arbitrage unfeasible [2]. - **Naphtha**: The US Gulf - Japan route is open, while others like Arabian Gulf - Japan are closed [4]. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - **USGC**: Most Middle - Eastern and Colombian crude oil routes to USGC are closed, while some routes to USAC and NWE have open or closed status based on price advantages and market conditions [4]. - **Singapore**: The Bonny Light to Singapore route is open, while the Murban to Singapore route is closed [4]. Refining Margins - **USGC**: Both cracking and coking margins are strong, with coking of Urals showing high profitability [5]. - **USAC**: Refinery margins are leading, benefiting from complex configurations and tight product supply [5]. - **Northwest Europe**: Margins have reached a new high for the year, driven by tight diesel supply [5]. - **Singapore**: Margins are stable, supported by recovering jet fuel demand and gasoline export opportunities [5]. Other Key Spreads - **WTI - Brent**: Brent maintains a premium over WTI, reflecting strong US exports and tight European supply [6]. - **RBOB - WTI Crack**: Gasoline crack spreads are at historical highs, supported by refinery maintenance and low inventories [6]. - **3:2:1 Crack Spread**: The comprehensive crack spread is extremely strong, indicating high overall refinery processing profits [6]. Key Market News - **ExxonMobil**: Plans to double LNG sales by 2030 and invest in oil production in Guyana and the Permian Basin [6]. - **Trump**: Calls for further oil price reduction to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Macron**: Announces the restoration of UN sanctions on Iran [6]. - **EU**: Is formulating measures to accelerate the phasing - out of Russian gas imports [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view within the [-2, 2] range [8].

Report Date - The report is dated September 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - The stock index options show a downward volatility trend, with sentiment回调, and the index options are approaching maturity [2] Market Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2912.83, down 39.95, with a trading volume of 74.86 billion hands and a change of 18.19 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 2908.93 and 2912.20 respectively, with basis of -3.89 and -0.63 [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4498.11, down 52.91, with a trading volume of 309.86 billion hands and a change of 74.14 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 4484.13 and 4473.80 respectively, with basis of -13.98 and -24.31 [3] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7476.40, down 78.41, with a trading volume of 398.60 billion hands and a change of 96.89 billion hands. The synthetic futures for the current month and next month were 7449.93 and 7366.20 respectively, with basis of -26.47 and -110.20 [3] Option Market Statistics - The trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 118,589, an increase of 60,763, and the open interest was 103,897, a decrease of 1580. The VL-PCR was 56.08% and the OI-PCR was 60.46%. The maximum call and put open interests (near - month) were at strike prices of 3000 and 2900 respectively [3] - The trading volume of CSI 300 Index options was 304,276, an increase of 123,482, and the open interest was 238,898, a decrease of 4051. The VL-PCR was 67.07% and the OI-PCR was 81.48%. The maximum call and put open interests (near - month) were at strike prices of 4500 and 4550 respectively [3] - The trading volume of CSI 1000 Index options was 708,257, an increase of 271,637, and the open interest was 344,711, a decrease of 10,505. The VL-PCR was 84.96% and the OI-PCR was 110.83%. The maximum call and put open interests (near - month) were at strike prices of 7500 and 7000 respectively [3] Option Volatility Statistics - For near - month options, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 20.14%, down 1.81%, and the VIX was 21.88, down 0.199 [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index options was 17.44%, down 2.84%, and the VIX was 21.55, down 1.142 [6] - The ATM - IV of CSI 1000 Index options was 19.87%, down 6.08%, and the VIX was 27.20, down 0.716 [6] Graphical Analysis - The report includes various graphs for different types of options, such as PCR graphs,主力合约偏度 graphs, volatility cone graphs, and volatility term structure graphs for Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, and multiple ETF options [10][14][17]

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