2026年01月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：等待利空出尽，关注宏观情绪影响 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间反弹为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：市场情绪影响，暂时观望 | 4 | | 豆一：市场情绪影响，观望 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：跟随整体市场情绪波动20260108 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：需求存负反馈 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 08 日 棕榈油：等待利空出尽，关注宏观情绪影响 豆油：单边区间反弹为主，关注月差机会 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,562 | 涨跌幅 0.73% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,594 | 涨跌幅 0.37% | | --- ...

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/7 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - TTF's sharp decline led to a correction in EUA. The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton (-1.20%), and 27,800 lots were traded (1.20). The signal strength was 0 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short). There were no new positive factors, while negative factors included the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF affected by long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was not available, and the bid - to - cover ratio was also not available. The EUA auction volume on January 5, 2026, and January 2, 2026, was 0.00 million tons, and the auction revenue was 0 million euros [2][4] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton, down 1.20% from the previous value. The trading volume was 27,800 lots (1.20). The spot settlement price on January 5, 2026, was 85.17 euros/ton, down 1.22% from January 2, 2026. The spot trading volume was 1,106 lots, an increase of 1.77% [2][5] Strategy - The signal strength was 0, indicating a short position. There were no new positive factors, and the negative factors were the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF due to long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2]

2026 年 1 月 7 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铂、钯、镍、锡、氧化铝、碳 酸锂、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震 | 4850 和 4900 点 | 4778 和 4740 点 | | | | | 荡 | ...

2026 年 01 月 07 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：大幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24335 | 690 | 1930 | 2880 | 3420 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24695 | ー | l | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3134 | 44 | 177 | 270 | 455 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 551669 | 215948 | 198032 | 378781 | 444784 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 253076 | -8056 | -46565 | -5980 | 48494 | | | LM ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day, the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous metals has become steeper, with aluminum and copper leading the gains, and the aluminum price has rapidly approached the historical peak. The current spot market for aluminum is weak, but it may have reached the worst state, and the basis spread is expected to bottom out [1]. - In the mid - 2026 supply - demand situation with supply constraints, diversified demand, tight balance, and low inventory - consumption ratio, the market environment can support the upward movement of the aluminum price center. The systematic capital linkage allocation in the sector also helps increase price elasticity, and this bull - market capital layout is earlier and faster. If the equity market starts the spring rally in the first quarter, the upward space of aluminum metal is still worth looking forward to [1]. - The importance of position management is increasing as the price volatility of aluminum at high levels is likely to expand. It is necessary to use options and other tools for risk hedging while keeping a futures bottom - position [1]. - Future risk points for a potential peak include the performance of overseas Al - related equity assets and downstream processing profit indicators [1]. Group 3: Option - related Suggestions - For investors with a long - position in futures, it is recommended to consider buying put options with a moderate period and moderate out - of - the - money degree to protect against the callback risk of long positions, or replace long futures positions with in - the - money call options to control the callback risk [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term high - level volatile market [1] - PTA: High - level volatile market [1] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium - term pressure remains [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Cost support is relatively strong, hold long spreads. Supply is gradually loosening, and attention should be paid to the reduction scale caused by Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance [4] - PTA: Unilateral high - level volatile market, maintain long spreads. The PTA segment is still in continuous de - stocking [5] - MEG: The medium - term trend is still weak, conduct short spreads on the calendar spread. The supply of domestic ethylene glycol is still at a high level, and the rigid demand is declining [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7336, up 126 (1.75%); PTA主力5150, up 104 (2.06%); MEG主力3838, up 106 (2.84%); PF主力6532, up 70 (1.08%); SC主力428.2, up 6.5 (1.54%) [2] - **Calendar Spreads**: PX5 - 9 yesterday's closing price was 112, down 12; PTA5 - 9 was 90, unchanged; MEG5 - 9 was - 86, up 4; PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16; SC11 - 12 was - 0.7, down 2.2 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 902.67 dollars/ton, up 19; PTA in East China was 5080 yuan/ton, up 50; MEG spot was 3680 yuan/ton, up 40; Naphtha MOPJ was 534.25 dollars/ton, up 11.75; Dated Brent was 62.91 dollars/barrel, down 0.04 [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 363.88, up 7.92; PTA processing margin was 361.63, up 6.66; Staple fiber processing margin was 120.64, down 21.37; Bottle chip processing margin was 43.68, down 25.41; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34, unchanged [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - Crude oil: The market is worried about the long - term oversupply pressure, and the geopolitical situation has not shown new intensification, so international oil prices have fallen [2] - PX: In the afternoon, PX negotiation prices were stalemate. May paper goods were negotiated at 903/905, and there were buy - orders for June at 900 [3] - PTA: Turkey launched an investigation at the request of local PTA producers, focusing on the sharp increase in PTA imports, industrial damage and causal relationships. No interim measures have been proposed yet, and the investigation period is generally 6 - 12 months [3] - MEG: From January 5th to January 11th, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang was about 6.2 tons, in Taicang Port about 7.9 tons, in Ningbo about 3.7 tons, and in Shanghai about 0 tons. The planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 17.8 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately today. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 77%. The sales - to - production ratios of some factories were 80%, 80%, 60%, 90%, 80%, 60%, 100%, 30%, 80%, 30%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed individual differentiation. As of around 3:30 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be about 50% [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 [4] - PTA trend intensity: 0 [4] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [4] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **PX Supply**: Fushun Petrochemical's 1 million - ton PX unit was restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for startup in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate increased to 90%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance plan of Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton unit [4] - **PTA Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk rose to over 300 yuan/ton. New Fengming's 2.5 million - ton Phase 1 and Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton units were restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%. Polyester filament factories cut production, while the operation of bottle chips and staple fibers remained stable. PTA is still in de - stocking [4][5] - **MEG Supply and Demand**: The domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level of 73.73%, and Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton unit was restarted. Overseas units such as China Taiwan's Nan Ya Plastics 720,000 - ton, Kuwait's 530,000 - ton, and Iran's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance. The arrival volume this week rebounded to over 170,000 tons. The polyester unit operating rate is 90%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is declining [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each product [2]. - Different products have different market outlooks, such as short - term high - level consolidation, upward movement of the central price range, and limited upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a short - term high - level consolidation market; PTA is in a high - level consolidation market; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: PX domestic supply increases, PTA device restarts, and MEG has high domestic supply and increasing port arrivals [5][7][8]. - **Investment Suggestions**: PX holds positive spreads; PTA maintains positive spreads; MEG conducts reverse spreads on monthly spreads [7][8]. Rubber - **Market Trends**: The rubber market is oscillating strongly [2][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and overseas raw material prices rise [9]. - **Industry News**: Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increases, and domestic production areas enter the off - season [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: The short - term central price range moves upward [2][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, trading volumes increase, and the price of raw material butadiene goes up [12]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of domestic butadiene in ports increases, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreases [13]. LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The standard product production decreases, and the spot is firm [2][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the inventory shifts to the middle - stream [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material price stabilizes and rebounds, and the supply and demand face medium - term pressure [16]. PP - **Market Trends**: There are few ongoing maintenance projects, and the basis weakens passively [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot sales pressure is moderate [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost is high, the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals have limited support [19]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [2][20]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is weakly stable [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term decline is limited, and there may be a short - term rebound, but the overall supply and demand situation is not optimistic [22]. Pulp - **Market Trends**: The pulp market is oscillating strongly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the price of broad - leaf pulp increases [27][28]. - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is rigid, and the price of household paper may be range - bound [29]. Glass - **Market Trends**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][30]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise slightly, and the spot price is stable [31]. - **Market Analysis**: The holiday atmosphere is strong, and the sales of enterprises are average [31]. Methanol - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term [2][33]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and the spot price rises in some regions [34][36]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [37]. Urea - **Market Trends**: The central price range moves upward [2][38]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the inventory of enterprises decreases [39][40]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand improvement drives the price up, but the upward strength needs dynamic observation [41]. Styrene - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation [2][45]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the current valuation is high [43][44]. - **Market Analysis**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market changes little [2][47]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise slightly, and the supply is high while the demand is tepid [48]. LPG, Propylene - **Market Trends**: LPG has a firm import cost, and propylene's demand is stable with a slight price increase [2][51]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the operating rates of relevant industries change [51]. PVC - **Market Trends**: It is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space [2][59]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [60]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and maintenance expectations drive the price up, but high inventory and weak demand limit the increase [61]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil turns strong and is prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term; low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend [2][64]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [64]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: The 02 contract subsidizes the premium, and the far - month contracts focus on premium subsidies and geopolitical events [2][66]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the shipping capacity and freight rates change [66][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The valuation of the 02 contract rises, and the 04 contract may provide a suitable short - selling ratio after the premium subsidy [73][74]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Market Trends**: They are in short - term oscillation [2][76]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and spot prices change, and the short - fiber sales rate improves [76]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trends**: It is advisable to wait and see [2][79]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is stable, and the cost and profit change slightly [79]. - **Market Analysis**: The market demand is weak, and the trading is light [80][82]. Pure Benzene - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation [2][83]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rise, and the port inventory increases [83][84].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; Dalian soybeans are expected to move sideways [1] - The soybean market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report on January 12 and capital flows from the annual adjustment of commodity indices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices** - DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4276 yuan/ton during the day session, up 17 yuan (+0.40%), and 4280 yuan/ton at night, up 16 yuan (+0.38%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2776 yuan/ton during the day session, up 30 yuan (+1.09%), and 2789 yuan/ton at night, up 26 yuan (+0.94%) [1] - CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1056.5 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents (-0.54%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 299.1 dollars/short - ton, down 0.6 dollars (-0.20%) [1] - **Spot Prices** - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal was M2605 + 340/+350/+360/+370 yuan/ton, up 15 - 40 yuan from the previous day, ranging from 3065 - 3160 yuan/ton [1] - In East China, different enterprises had different spot price quotes relative to futures contracts, with prices showing various adjustments [1] - In South China, the spot price of soybean meal was also quoted relative to futures contracts, with some prices remaining flat or having small increases [1] - **Industrial Data** - The trading volume of soybean meal was 32.55 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 29.3 million tons two days ago [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 105.05 million tons per week, compared with 110.22 million tons the previous week [1] Macro and Industry News - On January 6, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, falling from the one - week high in the morning session, mainly due to long - position profit - taking [3] - China increased its purchase of US soybeans. Private exporters reported selling 33.6 million tons of soybeans to China in the 2025/26 fiscal year, and COFCO bought about 60 million tons of US soybeans this week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Gold is influenced by rising risk - aversion sentiment [2] - Silver is expected to break new highs [2] - Copper prices are strong due to the boost in computing power demand [2] - Zinc is running on the stronger side [2] - The decrease in LME lead inventory supports its price [2] - Tin is in a range - bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum is oscillating on the stronger side, alumina has rebounded significantly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, and stainless steel is dragged by the real - world fundamentals with the market mainly gambling on Indonesian policies [2] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The prices of domestic gold futures contracts like Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T + D declined, while Comex Gold 2602 rose slightly. Trading volume and positions changed, with ETF positions remaining stable. There are geopolitical news such as the Trump administration discussing plans to acquire Greenland. The trend strength is 1 [2][4][6] - **Silver**: Domestic silver futures prices like Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T + D decreased, while Comex Silver 2602 increased significantly. Trading volume and positions changed, and inventory decreased. The trend strength is 1 [2][4][6] Copper - **Price and Trading**: The Shanghai copper main contract and LME copper 3M electronic disk prices rose. Trading volume and positions increased. Futures inventory rose, and the cancellation warrant ratio decreased [8] - **News**: The Trump administration is discussing plans for Greenland, and NVIDIA's CFO expects higher data - center chip revenue. The 2025 copper - ore imports in China increased, and there are developments in copper mines and smelters in Chile and other places. The trend strength is 2 [8][10] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: Shanghai and LME zinc prices rose. Trading volume, positions, and some spot prices increased, while inventory decreased. There are news about China's trade and monetary policies. The trend strength is 1 [11][12][13] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Shanghai and LME lead prices rose. Trading volume increased, positions changed, spot premiums increased, and LME inventory decreased. There are geopolitical news and expectations of high data - center chip revenue. The trend strength is 1 [14] Tin - **Price and Market**: Shanghai and LME tin prices increased significantly. Trading volume and positions changed, and inventory decreased. There are macro and industry news such as the Fed's stance and new stock listings. The trend strength is 1 [16][17][18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Market Data**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed various trends. Trading volume, positions, inventory, and other data changed. There are news about the Fed's internal differences and Venezuelan political issues. The trend strength for all three is 1 [20][21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry News**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices changed. There are multiple industry news in Indonesia, including restrictions on new smelting licenses, changes in nickel - ore production targets, and potential fines for illegal land use. The trend strength for both is 0 [22][23][25]