2025年09月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：储能需求旺盛，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货价格小幅抬升 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 18 日 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,790 | -820 | 940 | 0 | 1,450 | 3,220 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting was generally in line with expectations [2][6]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2][5]. - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut limits the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc: It is in a state of oscillatory consolidation [2][13]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price to oscillate [2][16]. - Tin: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation [2][19]. - Aluminum: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation; Alumina rebounds from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end [2][27]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various gold products such as Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, etc., showed varying degrees of decline. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed, and the inventory of some gold products increased while others decreased. The spread and exchange rate also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed was hawkish and dovish, and gold prices turned down after hitting a new high. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening of the labor market, and mentioned rising inflation [5][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various silver products such as Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, etc., declined. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of some silver products decreased. The spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased, while that of LME Copper 3M increased. The inventory of both decreased, and the spread also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia was still shut down. Panama was preparing to negotiate the resumption of the CP copper mine. The copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production in August increased slightly month - on - month, and the expected production in September decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc's main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased, while that of LME Zinc decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased, and the spread also changed [13]. - **News**: Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was not high, and the employment decline had become a substantial risk [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral state [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume and positions of both decreased, and the inventory of both decreased. The spread also changed [16]. - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the signals were hawkish and dovish, causing major assets to oscillate [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral state [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin's main contract and LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased, while that of LME Tin decreased slightly. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased, and the spread also changed [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US retail sales in August increased month - on - month [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral state [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina's main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. The inventory, spread, and other data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and related products also had corresponding changes [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the Bank of Canada also cut interest rates by 25 basis points [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral state [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless - steel main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of both changed. The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains also had corresponding changes [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting project entered the trial - production stage. There were environmental violations in the IMIP industrial park. Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period. The RKAB production approved by the Indonesian government in 2025 was higher than that in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were shut down due to losses. Some steel mills in Shandong started maintenance [27][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral state [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On September 17, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 0.8%, IH up 0.2%, IC up 1.26%, and IM up 1.25%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The trends of different contracts in terms of trading volume, open interest, basis, and positions of the top 20 member institutions vary. The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, while those of IC and IM are 1.68850. Important drivers include diplomatic news, Fed's interest - rate cut, and the performance of the A - share market [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 8,988 lots, IH by 5,233 lots, IC by 2,247 lots, and IM by 23,931 lots. The total open interest of IF decreased by 2,680 lots, IH increased by 4,021 lots, IC decreased by 10,820 lots, and IM decreased by 579 lots [2]. - **Closing Price and Basis**: For example, the closing price of IF2509 was 4,553.2 with a basis of - 2.18 points; the closing price of IH2509 was 2,956.2 with a basis of 3.42 points; the closing price of IC2509 was 7,252.4 with a basis of - 7.64 points; the closing price of IM2509 was 7,547 with a basis of - 7.81 points [1]. - **Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions**: The changes in long and short positions of different contracts vary. For instance, in IF2509, long positions decreased by 12,990 and short positions decreased by 13,237 [6]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are 1.68850. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7]. 3.3 Important Drivers - Diplomatic news: Regarding Sino - US high - level interactions and the TikTok ban, relevant departments have provided information [7]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing employment downside risks and expecting two more cuts this year [7]. - A - Share Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,876.34 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The A - share market had a total trading volume of 2.4 trillion yuan, up from 2.37 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends of various futures on September 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, metal futures, energy futures, and chemical futures [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on September 18. IF2509 has resistance at 4580 and 4600 points, support at 4542 and 4497 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2976 and 2990 points, support at 2940 and 2924 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7300 and 7350 points, support at 7235 and 7165 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7600 and 7650 points, support at 7525 and 7462 points [2][20]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2512 contract is likely to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, support at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2512 contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, support at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2512 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 829.0 and 824.9 yuan/gram, resistance at 845.9 and 850.0 yuan/gram [3][43]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2512 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 10000 and 10090 yuan/kilogram, support at 9800 and 9710 yuan/kilogram [3][50]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 79500 and 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 and 80300 yuan/ton [3][54]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2511 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 20650 and 20600 yuan/ton, with resistance at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, and will attack resistance at 2989 and 3021 yuan/ton, with support at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2511 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 74800 and 75600 yuan/ton, support at 72700 and 72000 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3144 and 3127 yuan/ton, resistance at 3180 and 3200 yuan/ton [4][71]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3370 and 3355 yuan/ton, resistance at 3410 and 3420 yuan/ton [4][77]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 812 and 815 yuan/ton, support at 796 and 793 yuan/ton [4][79]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 1215 and 1201 yuan/ton, resistance at 1241 and 1259 yuan/ton [4][85]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1250 and 1270 yuan/ton, support at 1226 and 1212 yuan/ton [4][88]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1347 and 1358 yuan/ton, support at 1325 and 1314 yuan/ton [4][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 493 and 490 yuan/barrel, resistance at 503 and 504 yuan/barrel [4][99]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract is expected to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 4750 and 4778 yuan/ton, support at 4694 and 4682 yuan/ton [4][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 4934 and 4921 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5000 and 5036 yuan/ton [4][105]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 15590 and 15500 yuan/ton, with resistance at 15880 and 15910 yuan/ton [6][107]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year. The Fed also cut the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate by 25 basis points. The FOMC statement shows concerns about employment and inflation. The dot - plot indicates different expectations for future rate cuts among Fed officials [7][8]. - **Domestic Policies and Data**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption models, introduce a series of policies for service consumption, and carry out over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities during the consumption month, issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies. In the first eight months, China's general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure was 17.93 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year - on - year [10][11]. - **International News**: Canada's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Japan's central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. UK's CPI in August was flat at 3.8% year - on - year [12][13]. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Gold Market**: Hong Kong will take five measures to establish an international gold trading market, including expanding gold storage and establishing a central clearing system [13]. - **International Futures Market**: On September 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, international oil prices slightly declined, and most London base metals fell [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Bottom rebound [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and spot market prices, costs, and inventories [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the Bank of Canada also cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with different stances on future rate cuts [3] - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,910 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 87,910 lots; the position was 137,521 lots, down 16,514 lots [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,937 yuan, down 42 yuan; the trading volume was 449,168 lots, down 129,891 lots; the position was 325,809 lots, up 38,407 lots [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,460 yuan, down 20 yuan; the trading volume was 4,374 lots, up 1,766 lots; the position was 10,154 lots, up 2,154 lots [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 74,500 tons, down 130 tons [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,073 yuan, down 10 yuan; the CIF price at Lianyungang was 349 US dollars per ton, unchanged [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 196 yuan, up 26 yuan; the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,500 yuan, down 100 yuan [1] Other Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with mixed signals and major asset fluctuations [3] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with little guidance on future rate cuts and a cautious approach to future monetary easing [3] - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]

2025 年 09 月 18 日 品 研 究 豆粕：资金面影响，脱离基本面 豆一：豆类市场氛围影响，低位震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3895 | -39 （-0.99%） | 3895 | -19 （-0.49%） | | 期 货 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2601 | 3002 | -44（-1.44%） | 3012 | -7（-0.23%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1044 | -5.0（-0.48%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.5 | -0.6（-0.21%） | n a | | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 较昨-20至-10； 3010～3030， | | 9月可跨月M2601-30/+0； | 10月M26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut restricts the decline of copper prices. The signals given by the Fed are mixed, causing major assets to fluctuate. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,560, with a daily decline of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 79,880, with a decline of 0.84%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,974, with a decline of 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 61,934, a decrease of 8,713 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 179,082, an increase of 4,068. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 27,540, an increase of 10,725, and the open interest was 293,000, an increase of 982 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 33,291, a decrease of 401, and the LME Copper inventory was 149,775, a decrease of 1,175. The LME Copper cancellation warrant ratio was 9.65%, a decrease of 0.82% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 71.13, a decrease of 11.87 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 74,000, a decrease of 200 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, admitted the weakening of the labor market, and mentioned rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year. Powell said the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut at this meeting was not high [1]. - **Industry News**: Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons. In the first seven months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 1.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down for rescue operations. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year. China's copper production increased slightly in August and is expected to decline in September [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

美联储如期降息 25 基点，承认劳动力市场走弱，提及通胀上行；点阵图显示年内预计还降息两次，明年 预计降息一次；鲍威尔称本次会议 50 基点降息呼声不高。美联储给出的信号鹰鸽参半，主要资产震荡。（华 尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 2025 年 09 月 18 日 铅：库存减少，支撑价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17100 | 0.26% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2006.5 | 0.25% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 44958 | -10020 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4966 | -550 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 4219 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - fiber and bottle - chip will follow cost fluctuations in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - Price changes: Short - fiber 2510 rose from 6366 to 6408, short - fiber 2511 from 6360 to 6402, short - fiber 2512 from 6326 to 6378 [1] - Spread changes: PF10 - 11 remained at 6, PF11 - 12 decreased from 34 to 24, PF basis decreased from 110 to 73 [1] - Position and volume: Short - fiber main position increased from 124769 to 220956, main volume decreased from 185819 to 181515 [1] - Spot price and sales rate: Short - fiber East China spot price rose from 6.470 to 6.475, sales rate decreased from 64% to 54% [1] Bottle - chip - Price changes: Bottle - chip 2510 rose from 5854 to 5880, bottle - chip 2511 from 5846 to 5868, bottle - chip 2512 from 5846 to 5874 [1] - Spread changes: PR10 - 11 increased from 8 to 12, PR11 - 12 decreased from 0 to - 6, PR main basis decreased from 4 to - 18 [1] - Position and volume: Bottle - chip main position decreased from 35813 to 33645, main volume increased from 34144 to 36618 [1] - Spot price: Bottle - chip East China spot price remained at 5850, South China spot price remained at 5890 [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures fluctuated with raw materials, factory quotes were stable, and transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6400 - 6700. The average sales rate was 54% [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream polyester raw material futures rose slightly, bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Orders from September to November were mostly traded at 5830 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - Short - fiber trend intensity was 0, bottle - chip trend intensity was 0 (referring only to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day) [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The report suggests that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [2]. 2) Core View - The report analyzes the fundamentals of pure benzene, including futures prices, price spreads, port inventories, and market news. It concludes that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures prices: BZ2603, BZ2604, and paper - based prices (N + 1, N + 2) decreased, while BZ2605 remained unchanged. Price spreads such as BZ2603 - EB2508 and BZ2604 - BZ2605 also changed [1]. - Port inventories: Pure benzene's East - China port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 134,000 tons, and styrene's East - China port inventory increased by 6,760 tons to 133,690 tons [1]. - Price differences: The price difference between Shandong pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased by 100, and the difference between Shandong and East - China pure benzene increased by 25 [1]. [News] - As of September 15, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons (6.94% MoM) to 134,000 tons, up 168% YoY. Jiangsu's styrene port inventory decreased by 17,500 tons (9.92% MoM) to 159,000 tons [2]. - On September 15, Shandong's non - long - term pure benzene non - long - association trading volume was about 1,700 tons, with an average price of 6,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. East - China's pure benzene spot and forward prices also increased [2].