Report Overview - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1][4] - Report Provider: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Report Focus: Black Series Commodities Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents individual outlooks for various black series commodities, indicating that most are expected to experience wide - ranging fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar has relatively weak demand and will have wide - ranging fluctuations. Hot - rolled coils have good demand resilience and will also have wide - ranging fluctuations. Ferro - silicon, silico - manganese, coke, and coking coal are all expected to have wide - ranging fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][9][10][13][17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 795.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Open interest decreased by 5,590 hands to 538,976 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, with PB (61.5%) down 9 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton. Some spreads changed, such as the basis (12601, against Super Special) increasing by 4 yuan/ton to 117.7 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US consumer price index in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [6]. Rebar - **Market Outlook**: Relatively weak demand, wide - ranging fluctuations [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The RB2510 contract closed at 3,006 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.63%. Trading volume was 178,828 hands, and open interest decreased by 14,764 hands to 582,868 hands. Spot prices in major cities decreased, with Shanghai down 10 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 11 steel union weekly data, rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons, inventory increased by 13.86 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 4 tons. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [11][12]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Outlook**: Good demand resilience, wide - ranging fluctuations [10] - **Fundamental Data**: The HC2510 contract closed at 3,372 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. Trading volume was 83,435 hands, and open interest decreased by 20,747 hands to 390,112 hands. Spot prices in major cities remained stable. The basis (HC2510) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 11 steel union weekly data, hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.9 tons, inventory decreased by 1.02 tons, and apparent demand increased by 18.85 tons. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [11][12]. Ferro - silicon and Silico - manganese - **Market Outlook**: Wide - ranging fluctuations [13] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferro - silicon, the 2511 contract closed at 5626 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. For silico - manganese, the 2511 contract closed at 5826 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 11, ferro - silicon and silico - manganese prices in different regions were reported. The trend strength for both is 0 (neutral) [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Outlook**: Repeated expectations, wide - ranging fluctuations [17][18] - **Fundamental Data**: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1141.5 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1630 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had different changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". The trend strength for both is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - **Market Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [20] - **Fundamental Data**: Different contracts' closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed various changes. For example, the 2509 contract's closing price was 766.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.8%. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The trend strength is 0 (neutral) [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests considering a bull call spread strategy for stock index options as there is an upward volatility trend and increasing bullish sentiment [1]. Core Viewpoints - The upward volatility in stock index options indicates a rise in bullish sentiment, and a bull call spread strategy can be considered [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of various indices and ETFs showed increases, with significant trading volume changes. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4548.03, up 102.67, and its trading volume was 253.26 billion hands, an increase of 49.67 billion hands [2]. - **Option Market Statistics**: Trading volumes of most options increased significantly, while open interest decreased in some cases. The VL - PCR and OI - PCR values varied among different options, reflecting different market sentiment. For instance, the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 429644, an increase of 128507, and its OI - PCR was 108.41% [2]. 2. Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - Month Volatility**: ATM - IV and IV changes were positive for most options, indicating an increase in implied volatility. For example, the ATM - IV of Huaxia Kechuang 50 ETF options was 43.60%, with an IV change of 7.74% [5]. - **Next - Month Volatility**: Similar to the near - month situation, most options showed an increase in ATM - IV, but the change magnitudes were relatively smaller [5]. 3. Option Indicator Data Statistics (Graphs) - **Index Option Graphs**: For each type of index option (e.g., SSE 50 index option, CSI 300 index option, etc.), there are graphs showing the full - contract PCR, main - contract skewness, volatility cone, and volatility term structure, which help analyze the market situation and sentiment [9][13][17]. - **ETF Option Graphs**: Similar to index options, ETF options (e.g., SSE 50ETF option, Huatai - Baorui 300ETF option) also have corresponding graphs for analysis [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 11, 2025, including股指期货 (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) to oscillate and consolidate, and some futures like gold, silver, copper, etc. to oscillate strongly [2][3]. - The report also analyzes the market conditions of various futures on September 10, 2025, and provides support and resistance levels for different futures contracts [14][38][47]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 11, 2025, IF2509 has resistance at 4451 and 4479 points, support at 4395 and 4351 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2960 and 2982 points, support at 2923 and 2910 points; IC2509 has resistance at 6967 and 7000 points, support at 6807 and 6746 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7282 and 7318 points, support at 7124 and 7004 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 11, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly and widely, with support at 107.33 and 107.07 yuan, resistance at 107.53 and 107.66 yuan; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is also likely to oscillate weakly and widely, with support at 114.0 and 113.5 yuan, resistance at 115.0 and 115.3 yuan [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Futures such as gold (AU2510), silver (AG2510), copper (CU2510), etc. are likely to oscillate strongly on September 11, 2025, while some futures like PTA (TA601), PVC (V2601), and methanol (MA601) are likely to oscillate and consolidate [3][5][7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: China's economic policies aim to promote high - quality development, including measures in finance, industry, and healthcare. For example, the government plans to better coordinate domestic and international economic work, and deepen industrial Internet applications [8][9][10]. - **International News**: The US economic data, such as the 8 - month PPI inflation decline, affects the Fed's interest - rate decisions. Geopolitical events, like the Middle - East conflict, impact the international oil price [12][13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the performance of various stock index futures contracts was mixed. Some contracts had short - term rebounds but faced resistance, while others had increased downward pressure [14][15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 10, 2025, Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The ten - year and thirty - year contracts had significant downward pressure, and the bond market adjustment led to the decline of bond fund net values and increased redemption pressure [38][43]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures had different performances on September 10, 2025. Gold and silver futures had short - term fluctuations, and base metal futures were affected by the Fed's interest - rate expectations. Energy and agricultural futures also showed various trends [14][47][53].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with a current trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day, while the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,867 dollars/ton, down 0.21% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 83,724 lots, a decrease of 16,741 lots, and the LME Zinc trading volume was 9,280 lots, an increase of 215 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 103,054 lots, a decrease of 5,145 lots, and the LME Zinc open interest was 201,219 lots, an increase of 1,496 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was 17.62 dollars/ton, up 1.16 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 44,329 tons, an increase of 1,648 tons, and LME Zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [1] News - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an stated that the government will focus on strengthening the domestic market, implement more proactive fiscal policies, and carry out key tasks such as supporting employment and foreign trade, cultivating new growth drivers, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - In August, China's CPI turned negative year-on-year, down 0.4%, while the core CPI increased to 0.9%. The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9%. The decrease in CPI was mainly due to a high base last year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases [2][3] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

2025 年 09 月 11 日 短纤：短期反弹 瓶片：短期反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：1；瓶片趋势强度：1(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2510 | 6378 | 6370 | 8 | PF10-11 | 14 | 18 | -4 | | PF | 短纤2511 | 6364 | 6352 | 12 | PF11-12 | 14 | 8 | 6 | | | 短纤2512 | 6350 | 6344 | 6 | PF基差 | 106 | 108 | -2 | ...

【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 烧碱：不宜追空 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2576 870 2719 143 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日，省内液碱市场整体持稳，鲁西南地区部分企业报价下调，出货放缓。近期关 注主力下游送货量及碱厂库存的变化。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱目前驱动不足，盘面预期博弈，市场呈现宽幅震荡。目前烧碱上涨的堵点主要来自出口和氧化铝。 从出口方面看，Vinythai 新增产能、日韩高供应使得东南亚供应充足，出口利润始终无法扩张，出口签单 未改善，50 碱-32 碱价差偏弱，导致烧碱上涨驱动不足。从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使 得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然今年年底广西地区存在 360 万吨产能预期投 产，明年年初也有东方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Bullish trend [1] - Alumina: Cost supported [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides updates on the fundamentals of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all rated as neutral [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,790 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 13,239 lots, and the open interest decreased by 196,440 lots [1]. - Alumina: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,933 yuan, down 292 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 4,637 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,976 lots [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,350 yuan, up 45 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 705 lots, and the open interest decreased by 37 lots [1]. Spot Market - Aluminum: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 64,900 tons, up 500 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price was 3,112 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price at Lianyungang was 363 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -72 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The inventory of three regions totaled 34,881 tons [1]. Other Information - US inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with the PPI falling 0.1% month - on - month, the first negative growth in four months. The year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [3]. - Judge blocked Trump from removing Fed Governor Cook, and the case will go to the US Supreme Court [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures showed a rebound after an excessive decline [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3911 yuan/ton during the day session, down 60 yuan (-0.13%), and up 8 yuan (+0.20%) to 3927 yuan in the night session; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and up 12 yuan (+0.39%) to 3076 yuan in the night session; CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1025 cents/bushel, down 5.5 cents (-0.53%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.7 dollars/short - ton, down 2.9 dollars (-1.00%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601; in East China, it was 3000 yuan/ton (from a factory in Taizhou), with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601; in South China, it was 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different premiums and discounts compared to M2601 [1] - **Industrial Data**: The previous trading day's soybean meal inventory was 106.39 tons/week, compared to 101.49 tons/week two trading days ago; the previous trading week's trading volume was 14.48 tons/day [1] b. Macro and Industry News - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders adjusted their positions before the USDA's global supply - demand report on Friday, and there were continuous concerns about Chinese demand [3] - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high. They guess the US soybean yield may be lowered to 53.3 bushels per acre from 53.6 bushels last month, and the soybean production may be 4.271 billion bushels this year [3] - The US soybean growth condition declined for the second consecutive week, although it was still above the average level [3] - Due to the deadlock in trade negotiations, US soybean exports to China were suspended, and South American competitors filled the gap, causing US farmers to miss billions of dollars in exports to China during the peak sales season [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the report day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next, large - scale group companies significantly reduced supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened. The overall supply increment in September was relatively large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline. The purchasing sentiment for piglets decreased, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, and it is mainly strong in the short - term. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,400 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,240 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 were 13,315 yuan/ton, 13,740 yuan/ton, and 13,015 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 85, 85, and 65 respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For example, the trading volume of生猪2511 was 32,626 lots, an increase of 6,090 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 75,719 lots, a decrease of 2,241 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of生猪2511 was 265 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 85; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs was - 425 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 0; the 1 - 3 spread was 725 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity was 0, with the value range being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels were classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 indicated the most bearish and 2 indicated the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a weak - downward trend, and advises to pay attention to the actual progress of production resumption [3]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,720 yuan, down 2,180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 70,800 yuan, down 2,100 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 168,470 lots, up 53,958 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 174,101 lots, down 4,445 lots from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 38,101 lots, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The basis of spot - 2511 was 2,730 yuan, up 1,030 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2601 was 2,650 yuan, up 950 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 80 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between spot and CIF was 6,502 yuan, down 768 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 849 yuan, down 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan, down 50 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Industry Chain - related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,620 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 32,225 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 29,430 yuan, down 270 yuan from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, down 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a landmark cooperation agreement to jointly mine lithium in the Atacama Salt Flat. Supporters believe this will diversify Codelco's revenue sources as it faces financial pressure due to falling copper production and debt surges from over - budget expansion projects [3].