Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 30, 2025, and the overall trend in December 2025 [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - On December 29, 2025, the performance of various futures contracts was mixed. Some contracts showed upward trends, while others declined. The overall market was volatile [14][37]. Stock Index Futures - On December 29, 2025, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all faced downward pressure. The short - term downward pressure on IF2603 and IC2603 increased, while that on IH2603 and IM2603 increased slightly [14][15]. - It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will likely show a relatively strong and volatile trend. On December 30, 2025, they will likely show a relatively weak and volatile trend [19][20]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AU2602 opened slightly lower, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [37]. - Silver: On December 29, 2025, the new main contract AG2604 opened slightly lower, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing slightly. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [41]. - Platinum: On December 29, 2025, the main contract PT2606 opened with a gap up and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [48]. - Palladium: On December 29, 2025, the main contract PD2606 opened with a large gap down and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [51]. Base Metal Futures - Copper: On December 29, 2025, the main contract CU2602 opened slightly lower and showed a slight upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [59][61]. - Aluminum: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AL2602 opened slightly lower and showed an upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [66]. - Alumina: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AO2605 opened slightly higher and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong and widely volatile in December 2025, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [71]. - Tin: On December 29, 2025, the main contract SN2602 opened slightly higher and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [74]. Other Futures - Lithium Carbonate: On December 29, 2025, the main contract LC2605 opened slightly lower and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [79]. - Rebar: On December 29, 2025, the main contract RB2605 opened flat and showed a slight upward trend. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [81]. - Iron Ore: On December 29, 2025, the main contract I2605 opened flat and showed an upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and widely volatile on December 30, 2025 [87]. - Coking Coal: On December 29, 2025, the main contract JM2605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be widely volatile and relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [92]. - Glass: On December 29, 2025, the main contract FG605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [97]. - Soda Ash: On December 29, 2025, the main contract SA605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [102]. Macro - news and Market Information - Domestic news includes military exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army, tariff adjustments, financial data of state - owned enterprises, regulatory policies of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the implementation of the digital RMB interest - bearing plan [7][8]. - International news includes statements by US President Trump, the meeting between Trump and the Ukrainian President, the US government's investigation of large enterprises, and the increase in pending home sales in the US [8][9]. - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline on "Black Monday." The increase in trading margins by the CME Group led to a decline in international metal futures prices [9][10].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 铝：跟随铜 氧化铝：横盘震荡 铸造铝合金：小幅下跌 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22570 | 1 ୧୧ | 350 | 1040 | 1875 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22320 | ー | l | l | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2951 | -6 | 10 | 144 | 348 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 618625 | 264988 | 364696 | 448782 | 517090 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 289255 | -10386 | -25044 | -49327 | 91862 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the copper market, indicating that copper prices are experiencing a correction due to capital liquidation. It also presents various fundamental data and macro - industry news, with a copper trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 98,860 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 96,060 with a decrease of 2.83%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 12,188 with a daily increase of 0.45% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 974,647, an increase of 424,617 from the previous day, and the open interest was 642,644, a decrease of 12,092. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 64,636, an increase of 46,441, and the open interest was 341,000, an increase of 1,268 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 65,878, an increase of 7,231, and the LME copper inventory was 154,575, a decrease of 2,450. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 28.51%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points [1]. - **Spreads**: There are multiple spread data, such as the LME copper spot - to - futures spread increased by 6.53, the spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 10, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: From January to November, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). The profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [1]. - **Industry**: Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons. China's copper ore and concentrate imports in November 2025 were 2,526,194.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor - management contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The copper trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, and the value ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4156 +31 | （+0.75%） | 4180 | +21 （+0.50%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2774 | -8（-0.29%） | 2776 | -12 （-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063.75 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 303.5 -3.9 | （-1.27%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨-30至+10； 3120～3160， | | 现货基差M2605+350， | 较 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 铂：资金离场开启回撤 钯： 跟随铂金撤步 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：金十数据） 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 634. 35 | | -10.06% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 637. 15 | | -3.78% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2138. 90 | | -14.92% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2102. 50 | | -14. 52% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 494. 10 | | -4. 18% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 489.00 | | 13.99% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.695.50 | | -17.71% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1.621. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The game between bulls and bears in the lithium carbonate market has intensified, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand after the price correction [1]. - The demand for new energy lithium batteries in China at the beginning of 2026 is expected to decline significantly compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, and battery manufacturers are expected to cut production and take holidays to cope with the demand fluctuations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 117,980, down 9,820 from the previous day; the trading volume was 18,938, an increase of 6,166; the open interest was 18,871, a decrease of 3,006. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 118,820, down 11,700; the trading volume was 688,764, an increase of 260,048; the open interest was 512,345, a decrease of 64,690 [1]. - **Basis and Price Spreads**: The basis of spot - 2601 was 20, and the basis of spot - 2605 was - 820. The price spread between 2601 and 2605 was - 840, and the price spread between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,000 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,545, up 55; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 3,400, up 45. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,000, up 6,100; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000, up 5,750 [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 117,013 yuan/ton, up 5,331 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,000 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 yuan/ton, up 5,750 yuan/ton [2]. - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, for about one month, with an expected reduction of about 5,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's 2026 operating performance [3]. - The demand for new energy lithium batteries in China at the beginning of 2026 is expected to decline significantly due to factors such as the adjustment of vehicle purchase tax policies, the end - of - year subsidy rush in the commercial vehicle market, and weak overseas and domestic storage demand [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish sentiment [3].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 热轧卷板：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,130 | 22 | 0.71 | | | HC2605 | 3,287 | 18 | 0.55 | | 期 货 | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,051,146 | 1,530,792 | -3,632 | | | HC2605 | 511,982 | 1,276,297 | 43,907 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 33 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - LME lead inventory decreased, which limited the price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was $1,999.5/ton, up 0.83% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 84,769 lots, an increase of 26,000; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,806 lots, a decrease of 1,794 [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 54,475 lots, a decrease of 1,083; the open interest of LME lead was 177,974 lots, a decrease of 181 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$37.81/ton, an increase of $4.49 [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was 288.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.11; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was 213.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.78 [1] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 11,583 tons, an increase of 25; the LME lead inventory was 244,275 tons, a decrease of 4,625 [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 25; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 413 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 [1] 3.2 News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). In November, the profit decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky planned to meet with US President Trump in Florida on the 28th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and some "sensitive" issues [2] - The lead trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

2025 年 12 月 30 日 短纤：高位震荡 20251230 瓶片：高位震荡 20251230 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6482 | 6612 | -130 | PF01-02 | -58 | -54 | -4 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6540 | 6666 | -126 | PF02-03 | 6 | 132 | -126 | | | 短纤2603 | 6534 | ୧୧34 | 0 | PF主力基差 | -10 | -96 | 86 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 188044 | 240005 | -51961 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.530 | 6,570 | -40 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 198026 昨日 | 200582 前日 | -2556 变化 | 短纤产销率 | 90% ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产情况 多晶硅：区间震荡，波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,715 382,415 | -165 -152,155 | 120 75,473 | -400 58,891 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,065 | -3,677 | -541 | -16,583 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 56,500 | -2,455 | -2,345 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 69,428 | -61,662 | -143,852 | - | ...