Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 29, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped by 0.5%, IH by 0.41%, IC by 0.46%, and IM by 0.32% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 22,687 lots, IH by 11,586 lots, IC by 36,757 lots, and IM by 53,242 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 12,050 lots, IH by 5,602 lots, IC by 17,385 lots, and IM by 19,963 lots [2] - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 is 4,639.4, down 0.38%. The closing prices of IF2601, IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 are 4,630.8, 4,620.8, 4,610.2, and 4,567.4 respectively, with declines of 0.50%, 0.43%, 0.56%, and 0.47%. Their trading volumes decreased by 6,620, 289, 12,369, and 3,409 respectively, and their positions decreased by 3,726, increased by 261, decreased by 8,066, and decreased by 519 respectively [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 is 3,034.6, down 0.35%. The closing prices of IH2601, IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 are 3,036, 3,036.8, 3,038, and 3,033.2 respectively, with declines of 0.41%, 0.36%, 0.48%, and 0.39%. Their trading volumes decreased by 2,169, 66, 7,117, and 2,234 respectively, and their positions decreased by 2,404, decreased by 110, decreased by 2,558, and decreased by 530 respectively [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 is 7,430.6, down 0.38%. The closing prices of IC2601, IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 are 7,421.6, 7,379, 7,336.6, and 7,157.6 respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.51%, 0.67%, and 0.76%. Their trading volumes decreased by 10,673, increased by 763, decreased by 20,731, and decreased by 6,116 respectively, and their positions decreased by 6,224, increased by 1,008, decreased by 10,791, and decreased by 1,378 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 is 7,594.2, down 0.15%. The closing prices of IM2601, IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 are 7,572.2, 7,500.2, 7,439, and 7,206 respectively, with declines of 0.32%, 0.48%, 0.51%, and 0.59%. Their trading volumes decreased by 15,720, increased by 639, decreased by 29,817, and decreased by 8,344 respectively, and their positions decreased by 7,157, increased by 4,723, decreased by 12,285, and decreased by 975 respectively [1] 2. Top 20 Member Positions in Stock Index Futures - For IF2601, long positions decreased by 2,419, and short positions decreased by 2,639. For IF2602, long positions decreased by 9,611. For IF2603, long positions decreased by 6,158, and short positions decreased by 6,771. For IF2606, long positions decreased by 1,034, and short positions decreased by 742 [5] - For IH2601, long positions decreased by 1,714 with a net change of -4,414, and short positions decreased by 1,956 with a net change of -4,742. For IH2603, long positions decreased by 2,168, and short positions decreased by 2,270. For IH2606, long positions decreased by 532, and short positions decreased by 516 [5] - For IC2601, long positions decreased by 4,226, and short positions decreased by 5,047. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 7,318 with a net change of -13,116, and short positions decreased by 8,625 with a net change of -14,790. For IC2606, long positions decreased by 1,572 [5] - For IM2601, long positions decreased by 5,380 with a net change of -13,183, and short positions decreased by 6,072. For IM2602, long positions increased by 83, and short positions increased by 747 with a net change of -15,394. For IM2603, long positions decreased by 7,886, and short positions decreased by 10,069 [5] 3. Market Conditions - **Precious Metals Market**: On Monday, the spot silver price in the Asian market hit a record high of over $80 per ounce and approached $84, with a nearly 6% increase. However, the market then reversed sharply, and in the New York market, it dropped by over 11%. The decline in silver also dragged down other precious metals, with spot palladium dropping by 17%, spot platinum by 15%, and spot gold by over 5%. In the domestic market, platinum and palladium hit the daily limit down, and the Shanghai silver futures price dropped at the end of the session, erasing all the 10% intraday gains and further dropping by 8.74% at night. The Shanghai gold futures price closed down nearly 1% and further dropped by 4% at night. COMEX gold futures closed down 4.45% at $4,350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down 7.2% at $71.64 per ounce [6] - **A - Share Market**: The A - share market showed a divergence between large and small - cap indices. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded nine consecutive positive days, while the ChiNext Index declined. The commercial aerospace and humanoid robot sectors performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.04% at 3,965.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.49%, the ChiNext Index down 0.66%, the Northbound 50 down 0.45%, the STAR 50 up 0.04%, the Wind All - A down 0.29%, the Wind A500 down 0.46%, and the CSI A500 down 0.48%. The total A - share trading volume was 2.16 trillion yuan, compared with 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. The carbon fiber concept rose as Toray Industries announced a price increase for carbon fiber products. The brain - computer interface concept was active, the commercial aerospace concept remained strong, the humanoid robot concept continued to heat up, and the stablecoin index rose in the afternoon. The lithium - battery industrial chain adjusted significantly, and the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept declined [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong stock market rose first and then fell. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.71% at 25,635.23 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.30% at 5,483.01 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.26% at 8,891.71 points. The market trading volume was HK$224.508 billion. Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, JD Health fell 3.42%, Cheung Kong Holdings fell 3.35%, BYD Co., Ltd. rose 3.74%, and Geely Automobile rose 3.43%. Among the Hang Seng Tech Index constituents, Horizon Robotics - W fell 3.20%, Midea Group fell 3.05%, NIO - SW rose 4.89%, and XPeng Motors - W rose 3.88% [7] - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indices closed down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% to 48,461.93 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.35% to 6,905.74 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to 23,474.35 points. Goldman Sachs Group and American Express fell by over 1%, leading the decline in the Dow. Profit - taking put pressure on AI - related stocks. The Wind US Tech Giants Index fell 0.6%, Tesla fell by over 3%, and NVIDIA fell by over 1%. Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with Dingdong Maicai falling by over 7% and Hecla Mining falling by nearly 7% [7] 4. Automobile Market - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the growth of the auto market in 2026 is complex. The most important factor at the beginning of the year is the late Spring Festival, and this year, combined with the early implementation of national subsidies, the effect will be significant. It should achieve positive growth in January, but there will be more pressure in February [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry, prices will maintain range - bound oscillations [2][6]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Affected by market information, prices will experience wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Coke**: With the start of the fourth round of price cuts, prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by year - end production cuts, prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][15]. - **Log**: Prices will fluctuate at low levels [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase. The previous day's position was 629,681 lots, an increase of 48,950 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices all rose slightly, while most spreads decreased [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with different performance among different types of enterprises [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,130 yuan/ton and 3,287 yuan/ton respectively. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spreads [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in steel production, inventory, and demand in mid - December. Also, the government implemented export license management for some steel products, and there were changes in steel imports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures closing prices, trading volumes, and various spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price adjustments for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese, and changes in the operating rate and production of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in metallurgical coal indexes, and coal mines in Fuyuan, Yunnan stopped production, which may affect regional supply [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Log - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts, as well as changes in spot prices [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 12 - month LPR remained unchanged in December [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 合成橡胶：跟随商品指数回落 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,600 | 11,635 | -35 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 152,140 | 196,070 | -43930 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 59,203 | 64,505 | -5302 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 884,041 | 1,126,455 | -242413 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -100 | -285 | 185 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -30 | -5 | -25 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,000 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream inventory of LLDPE has been transferred, and the basis has remained stable. Although the futures price has rebounded, the downstream factories are not actively purchasing, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high - capacity and weakening demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [1][2] 3. Summary of Relevant Contents by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 was 6453, with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 543216, and the open interest decreased by 17464. The 05 - contract basis was - 153, compared with - 165 the previous day, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 32, compared with - 31 the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot price in North China was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China it was 6350 yuan/ton, up from 6300 yuan/ton the previous day; in South China it was 6370 yuan/ton, up from 6350 yuan/ton the previous day [1] Spot News - The futures opened higher and fluctuated. The previous rebound provided opportunities for agents and arbitrageurs to build positions. Inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the destocking of warehouse receipts has stopped. At the end of the month, petrochemical companies mostly stopped sales for settlement. Traders' inventories are acceptable, and most of them raised prices with the market. However, downstream factories are not actively purchasing, and transactions are mainly through negotiation. The offers from the Middle East and the United States have declined, and the domestic - foreign price difference has been slightly repaired. Shipments from the Middle East and the United States, which were previously delayed, are arriving at ports recently, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1] Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil, the raw material, has rebounded, while the monomer segment has been weakly stable. The profit margins of PE's ethylene and ethane processes have been compressed. The PE futures price has rebounded from a low level, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased the price to replenish stocks. The near - end downstream agricultural film industry has weakened, while the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold goods has weakened. Upstream companies have offered price discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, and factory inventories have slightly decreased, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up. The current maintenance plan in December is neutral, with some FD production switching and capacity reduction in Inner Mongolia. In the medium term, attention should still be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]

2025年12月30日 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：面积预期暂无定论，期价回调20251230 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：短期震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：矛盾继续积累，短期偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,512 | -0.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment outlooks and trend analyses for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and risk warnings [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation and macro - news. The trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. The price shows a downward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows lead to a retracement. The price drops significantly, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. - **Palladium**: It follows platinum's retracement. The price also shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation causes price corrections. The price experiences a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits price declines. The price shows a slight decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The price drops, and the trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It follows copper. The price movement is related to copper, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: It is in a sideways oscillation. The price remains relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It shows a slight decline. The price drops slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied in some products)**: Affects the prices of downstream products such as fuel oil and chemicals. For example, the price of fuel oil may be affected by crude oil price fluctuations [126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session fluctuations increase, and it may maintain strength in the short term. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strong - side oscillation, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market is temporarily stable. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillation market. The supply increases, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to pay attention to position management before the holiday, and the trend strength is 0 [2][64][69]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The port inventory accumulates, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is 0 [2][64][70]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][113]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][114]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the rebound space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][122]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related (Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil)**: - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][159][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean drive is not significant, and it is mainly operated within a range. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][167]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price corrects. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][172]. - **Eggs**: They are in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and they are strong in the short term. The price shows an upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill acquisitions. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][187]. - **Palm Oil**: It has a short - term rhythm rebound, but the height is limited. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. Others - **Iron Ore**: It is in a high - level repetition. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][45]. - **Rebar**: Macroeconomic support and industrial suppression coexist, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, with macroeconomic support and industrial suppression, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut starts, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Year - end production cuts disrupt, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Log**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][60]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][89]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][99]. - **Urea**: It runs in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][103]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term oscillation mainly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. It analyzes the market trends, fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading suggestions for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation. Supply is marginally loose, with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand from PTA devices decreases. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation before the holiday, and attention should be paid to position management [5][8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation. Supply increases as some devices restart. Demand from polyester has a marginal decline but remains at a high level. PTA maintains de - stocking, which is beneficial to the performance of the monthly spread and basis [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory accumulates again, and the trend is still weak. Although there are some supply - side reduction expectations, the current inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change. However, considering the cost factors, the inventory accumulation expectation is marginally improved, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber shows a wide - range oscillation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and some tire enterprises have short - term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which has a certain impact on the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate [12][13]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber follows the decline of the commodity index. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [15][17]. 3.4 LLDPE - For LLDPE, the upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable. The raw material price rebounds, and the profit of the monomer link is compressed. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has some device changes. There is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [18][19]. 3.5 PP - PP is expected to have a stable and oscillating market. Multiple PDH devices are planned for maintenance in January. The cost side has some changes, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals have limited support at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand side is weak, and the supply side has high - pressure due to high - start production in winter. The rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not reduce production, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January [24][26]. 3.7 Pulp - Pulp is in a weakly oscillating state. The price of imported pulp has increased in December, but the internal driving logic is differentiated. The overall demand is rigid, but the demand for different types of pulp varies. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [30][35]. 3.8 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has ups and downs, and the overall market trading flexibility has increased, but the shipment in most areas is still average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol oscillates with support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation. It oscillates repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - environment. The cost side provides support for the lower valuation [40][42]. 3.10 Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillating operation. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The driving force is neutral, and the 05 contract has support below. The upper and lower fundamental price limits are estimated [44][47]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for its price in 2026, but there are also risks such as high inventory of downstream products. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center of gravity throughout the year [48][51]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is weakly stable and oscillating, and the trading is light. The comprehensive production has decreased, and the downstream demand is not strong [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [54][55]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is in a weakly oscillating state. The valuation is at a low level, and although there may be phased rebounds, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the substantial large - scale maintenance plan on the supply side [63][64]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session volatility increases, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strongly oscillating state, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in high - level oscillation. The core issues for the 2602 contract include the freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and short on rallies in the medium - to - long term [69][82]. 3.17 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures price is in weak consolidation, the spot price is stable, and the sales are mostly weak. - **Bottle Chips**: It is in high - level oscillation. The upstream raw material futures price has decreased, and the factory price has been lowered. The market trading atmosphere is weak [84][85]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the scale paper mills' operating loads are basically stable, and the market new orders are few [87][88]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. The inventory in the East China port has increased, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026 and may rebound in the second quarter [92][93].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Japan's central bank's December meeting minutes suggest more interest rate hikes, with economists expecting another hike in about six months and most seeing the end - rate of this hiking cycle at 1.25% [7][8]. - Platinum and palladium prices retreated yesterday, with high - level volatility intensifying. Short - term attention should be paid to the spread between domestic and foreign markets and holiday liquidity tightening, and investors are advised to control positions and set strict stop - loss [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, there is a game between weak off - season demand and strong expectations, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely in the short term. The key is to focus on the downstream spot purchasing after the price correction [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pre - market Highlights from the Director - **Japan's Central Bank Policy**: The December policy meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan show that many members believe the country's real interest rates are still extremely low, hinting at continued future rate hikes. The benchmark interest rate was raised to 0.75%, a 30 - year high. Economists expect another hike in about six months, with most seeing 1.25% as the end - rate of this cycle [7][8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices retreated yesterday. The core drivers are the capital movements in European and American markets and risk - aversion operations before the New Year's Day holiday in the domestic market. There are structural contradictions in the spot market, but they are not tightening marginally. ETF inflows are stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the spread between domestic and foreign markets and holiday liquidity tightening [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a game between weak off - season demand and strong expectations. The price fluctuated widely in the short term. The market is affected by news, such as the expected weakening of lithium - battery demand in early 2026 and the substitution of sodium - batteries. The industry is in a destocking state, but the pace has slowed. The market's overall expectation for next year is still positive [11]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. The prices of Shanghai gold futures and Comex gold futures decreased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes [16]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. Shanghai silver futures and Comex silver futures prices declined, and trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation led to a price correction. The prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper showed different trends, and production and import data also changed [23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed, and inventory and other data also showed corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed, and inventory data also changed [29]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [32]. - **Aluminum**: It follows the trend of copper. The prices of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum changed, and inventory and other data also showed fluctuations [36]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows led to a retreat. The prices of platinum futures and spot platinum decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [39]. - **Palladium**: It followed platinum's decline. The prices of palladium futures and spot palladium decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces. The price of Shanghai nickel changed, and there are some impacts on the industry from policies in Indonesia [43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks. The price of stainless - steel futures changed, and there are impacts on the industry from policies in Indonesia [43]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears intensifies. Attention should be paid to the restocking demand after the price correction. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot lithium carbonate changed, and there are impacts from news and market expectations [48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a range - bound oscillation with fluctuations increasing. Polysilicon is also in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and inventory and other data also showed corresponding fluctuations [51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The price of iron - ore futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [54]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The macro - environment provides support while the industry exerts pressure, and steel prices remain range - bound. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [56]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Market information causes wide - range oscillations. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and spreads also changed [60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: A fourth round of price cuts for coke has started, and there are end - of - year production - reduction disturbances for coking coal. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and spreads also changed [65]. - **Log**: It is oscillating at a low level [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term. Their prices and spreads changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [71][75][76][77]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The price of rubber futures decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [78][79]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It follows the decline of the commodity index. The price of synthetic - rubber futures decreased, and there are impacts from inventory and market trends [82][84]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis remains stable. The price of LLDPE futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [85][86]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates. The price of PP futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and cost [88][89]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices changed, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [91][93]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating weakly. The price of pulp futures decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [99]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [104]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price of methanol futures remained stable, and there are impacts from inventory and cost [107][109]. - **Urea**: It oscillates in the short term. The price of urea futures remained stable, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [111][114]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The price of styrene futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and cost [115][116]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The price of soda - ash futures decreased, and spot prices remained stable [119]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. The prices of LPG and propylene futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [121][122]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound. The price of propylene futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [122]. - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The price of PVC futures and spot prices changed, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [130]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil's night - session volatility increases, and it may remain strong in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates strongly, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. Their prices and spreads changed [134]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price of the container - freight - index futures increased, and there are impacts from shipping capacity and geopolitical factors [136][146][147]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: They are oscillating at a high level. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures decreased, and spot prices also changed [151]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to watch. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased, and spot prices remained stable [154]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The price of pure - benzene futures decreased, and spot prices and inventory changed [159][160]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm but with limited height. Soybean oil has little driving force from the US soybeans, and it is advisable to operate within a range. Their prices and spreads changed [163]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. Soybean oscillates. The prices of soybean - meal and soybean futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [168][169][170][171]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures changed, and spot prices and spreads also changed [172][173][174]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price of sugar futures decreased, and there are impacts from production and demand at home and abroad [176][177][178]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price is correcting. The price of cotton futures decreased, and there are impacts from the domestic and international cotton markets [181][183][184][185]. - **Egg**: It oscillates in the short term. The price of egg futures decreased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [187]. - **Live Pig**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term. The price of live - pig futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [190][191]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills. The price of peanut futures changed, and spot prices and spreads also changed [196].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1] 2. Core View - The report provides an analysis of crude oil futures prices, various regional crude oil arbitrage opportunities, and key market news, indicating that the short - term crude oil market is volatile [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Price - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 1.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% increase, at 436.90 yuan/barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Among different crude oil varieties, Napo vs Mars has a significant arbitrage opportunity of 5.22 (Dec - 25), while most other pairs have negative or near - balance arbitrage windows [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Urals vs Bonny Light has an arbitrage window of 23.68 (Dec - 25), showing a relatively large difference [3] - **North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Saharan Blend vs Forties has a stable arbitrage space of 1.63 (Dec - 25), while some other varieties have weak or negative arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All the listed crude oil varieties against Urals have deeply closed arbitrage windows, with large value differences and cost factors playing important roles [5] - **Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All the listed crude oil varieties against ESPO have closed arbitrage windows, with price differences and high costs as main factors, and Eagle Ford has the relatively smallest loss [6] 3.3 Key Market News - President Trump said he heard that Iran was trying to rebuild its military power [6] - As of the week ending December 19, the total US natural gas inventory was 341.3 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 16.6 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 12.9 billion cubic feet less than the same period last year (a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%), and 2.4 billion cubic feet lower than the 5 - year average (a decrease of 0.7%) [7] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium plans to suspend receiving crude oil on Monday evening [8] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) postponed the release of the weekly petroleum status report for the week ending December 19 [8] - Kazakhstan's oil production in December so far has dropped 6% from the November average to 1.93 million barrels per day [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9]

Report Overview - Date: December 30, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals constrain its elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - short game intensifies, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand after the callback [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the production reduction situation of upstream factories [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: It shows range - bound oscillations with amplified fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Various data such as closing prices, trading volumes, and price differences of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 125,710, down 1,040 from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Includes events like the Indonesian forestry working group taking over a nickel mine due to violations, China suspending non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implementing sanctions on mining companies [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on contract closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and basis of lithium carbonate futures are provided. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 117,980, down 9,820 from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - line maintenance, and the demand for new - energy lithium batteries in early 2026 is expected to decline [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures prices, trading volumes, open interest, basis, and spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented. For example, the Si2605 closing price of industrial silicon is 8,715, down 165 from the previous day [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indian photovoltaic company plans to invest $30 million to acquire shares of a polysilicon manufacturer and sign a long - term procurement agreement [13] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]