1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene industry is that it is "strong in the short term and will fluctuate weakly" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pure benzene is strong, followed by a weak fluctuation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices: BZ2603 was 6019 (up 13 from the previous day), BZ2604 was 5995 (up 14), BZ2605 was 6020 (up 8) [1] - Spread data: BZ2603 - EB2508 was - 1104 (down 310), BZ2603 - EB2509 was - 943 (up 13), etc. [1] - Paper - cargo prices: N + 1 was 5930 (up 15), N + 2 was 5940 (up 10) [1] - Inventory data: Pure benzene East - China port inventory was 14.4 (down 0.5), styrene East - China port inventory was 126930 (up 310) [1] - Price differences: Shandong pure benzene price - hydrogenated benzene price was 50 (up 110), Shandong pure benzene price - East - China pure benzene price was - 10 (up 10) [1] 3.2 News - As of September 8, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36% and a year - on - year increase of 260.00% [2] - From August 24 to August 31, the estimated arrival was about 1.75 million tons and the estimated pick - up was about 2.25 million tons [2] - On September 10, the non - long - term - agreement trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 2500 tons, with an average price of 5905 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - East - China pure benzene spot negotiation was at 5910 - 5920 (average 5915, stable), September delivery was at 5920 - 5940 (average 5930, up 15), etc. [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 11 日 白糖：关注巴西出口 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.54 | 0.05 | 91 价差（元/吨） | -10 | -22 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5920 | 0 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 28 | 7 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5535 | 17 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 385 | -17 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：印度季风降水量再度增强。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 8 月出口 374 万 吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同比减少 5%。Conab 下调 25/26 榨季巴西产量至 4450 万吨，前 值 4590 万吨。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+32 万吨）。 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost, and also mentions relevant macro and industry news, as well as the trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511's closing price was 8,665 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 622,948 lots and an open interest of 278,065 lots; PS2511's closing price was 52,885 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 411,979 lots and an open interest of 137,072 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot had different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and the polysilicon spot had a discount of -1,835 yuan/ton against N - type recycled materials [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,500 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,650 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type recycled materials was 51,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan was -2,636 yuan/ton and -3,436 yuan/ton respectively; the profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.3 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon's social inventory was 53.7 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons, industry inventory was 70.8 million tons, and futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.0 million tons; the polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 21.1 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions had different changes [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The prices of polysilicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA had different changes, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.3 yuan/kg [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC was 10,700 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises was -1,186 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was 100 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 9th, Jinko Energy announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang Jinko Energy Co., Ltd. planned to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang Jinko New Materials Co., Ltd. to Diker Co., Ltd. for 80 million yuan [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the current situation of the asphalt market, including the changes in production capacity utilization, shipment volume, and price differences. The production capacity utilization has increased due to the resumption of production in some refineries, while the shipment volume has decreased in some regions due to various factors such as changes in downstream demand and project suspension [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2510 and BU2511 are 3,463 yuan/ton and 3,450 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.64% and 0.88%. The trading volume of BU2510 is 31,559 lots, with an increase of 2,446 lots, and the position is 35,992 lots, with a decrease of 3,341 lots. The trading volume of BU2511 is 150,423 lots, with an increase of 37,975 lots, and the position is 244,770 lots, with an increase of 2,860 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts are 64,860 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis (Shandong - 10) is 77 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan compared to the previous day. The 10 - 11 inter - period price difference is 13 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8 yuan. The Shandong - South China price difference is 20 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The East China - South China price difference is 120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price is 3,540 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price is 3,640 yuan/ton, with no change. The refinery operating rate is 39.59%, with a decrease of 0.63%, and the refinery inventory rate is 27.11%, with an increase of 0.66% [1]. Market Information - **Production Capacity Utilization**: From September 4 - 10, 2025, the production capacity utilization of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% increase from the previous period. This was due to the resumption of asphalt production at Hebei Xinghai's large - scale plant and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt led to a decrease in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [13]. - **Modified Asphalt Production Capacity Utilization**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the production capacity utilization of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 0.2% decrease year - on - year. The supply of modified asphalt increased significantly, reaching a new high for the year and approaching the same - period level [13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil has insufficient fundamental drivers and may experience a short - term correction [1] - US soybean oil policy is unstable, and there are limited themes for soybean oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,244 yuan/ton, down 2.55%; closing price (night session) was 9,302 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. Yesterday's trading volume was 859,709 lots, an increase of 280,680 lots, and the position was 444,900 lots, a decrease of 6,616 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,256 yuan/ton, down 1.81%; closing price (night session) was 8,290 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. Yesterday's trading volume was 448,885 lots, an increase of 210,870 lots, and the position was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,770 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; closing price (night session) was 9,835 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. Yesterday's trading volume was 284,089 lots, an increase of 21,996 lots, and the position was 255,147 lots, a decrease of 12,867 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 4,413 ringgit/ton, down 1.52%; closing price (night session) was 4,420 ringgit/ton, up 0.16% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 50.98 cents/pound, up 0.99% [1] 3.1.2 Spot - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 9,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,115 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 404 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 526 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 365 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 988 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with - 1,078 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: 202 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with - 6 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 6 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 46 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: N/A (previous trading day), compared with 129 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August was 2,202,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.18%. Production was 1,855,008 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. Exports were 1,324,672 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. Imports were 49,036 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.66% [2] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 415,030 tons, a decrease of 8.43% compared with the same period last month [3] - ITS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 476,610 tons, a decrease of 1.2% compared with the same period last month [5] - The White House is reviewing a plan that requires large refineries to bear part of the reduced biofuel blending volume due to small refinery exemptions. The plan requires large refineries to compensate for 50% or less of the exempted biofuel volume [5] - The EU has recognized the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil Certification (MSPO) as a reliable standard [5] - Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with the previous year [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict is intensifying, increasing the potential supply risk of LPG. The supply of propylene plants is fluctuating, leading to higher spot transactions [1]. Detailed Summaries by Sections Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,462 with a daily increase of 1.34% and a night - session price of 4,444 with a decrease of 0.40%. PG2511 closed at 4,414 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a night - session price of 4,402 with a decrease of 0.27%. PL2601 closed at 6,408 with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session price of 6,418 with an increase of 0.16%. PL2602 closed at 6,453 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a night - session price of 6,451 with a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - **LPG Position and Trading Volume**: For PG2510, the trading volume was 92,077, an increase of 31,859 from the previous day, and the position was 69,115, an increase of 3,817. For PG2511, the trading volume was 32,932, an increase of 10,261, and the position was 45,311, an increase of 3,465. For PL2601, the trading volume was 2,801, an increase of 215, and the position was 10,329, an increase of 331. For PL2602, the trading volume was 18, a decrease of 8, and the position was 887, an increase of 1 [1]. - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was not given, while the previous day's spread was 117. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 88, compared with 217 the previous day. The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were 267, 192, and 67 respectively, compared with 223, 173, and 23 the previous day [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.1%, slightly up from 73.0% the previous week. The MTBE operating rate was 62.2%, down from 63.5%. The alkylation operating rate was 44.5%, down from 46.8% [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]. Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On September 10, 2025, the October CP paper goods for propane were at 550 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and for butane were at 523 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton. The November CP paper goods for propane were at 559 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [6]. - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units since May 12, 2023, end date pending), and many others with various start and end times [7]. - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG plants have maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (Shandong, full - plant maintenance since May 14, 2024, end date pending), and others with different durations and production losses [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term, the market is under pressure and oscillating, with a still weak trend. The increase in the export flow of the second and third batches may drive some market speculation, but the futures price has limited speculative space under the high - premium pattern due to the light spot trading volume. In the medium - term, the export acceleration has limited impact on price as traders have prepared some goods in advance. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and the increase in exports is expected to be unable to compensate for the weakening domestic demand. Overall, the price is expected to gradually decline [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,669 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume was 168,507 lots, a decrease of 13,613 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 283,349 lots, an increase of 15,169 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,897 tons, an increase of 54 tons; the trading value was 5.6597 billion yuan, a decrease of 481.35 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 1, up 14 from the previous day. The UR01 - UR05 spread remained unchanged at - 50 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of urea in various enterprises such as Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, etc. remained unchanged. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas also remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators, including the operating rate at 77.96% and the daily output at 182,390 tons, remained unchanged [2] 2. Industry News - On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 37,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, the urea export continued to accelerate, causing the inventory of some enterprises with export orders to decline. However, the inventory of enterprises without exports rose slowly due to the under - expected domestic demand. Provinces with increased inventory include Anhui, Gansu, etc., while those with decreased inventory include Hebei, Henan, etc. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Non-farm payrolls are being revised downward [2]. - Silver: The gold-silver ratio is on the rise [2]. - Copper: The US dollar is under pressure, leading to a price increase [2]. - Zinc: Prices are expected to trade within a range [2]. - Lead: Declining inventories are supporting prices [2]. - Tin: Prices are expected to trade within a range [2]. - Aluminum: Prices are expected to remain strong [2]. - Alumina: Costs are providing support [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Prices will follow those of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Prices are expected to trade within a narrow range [2]. - Stainless steel: Prices are likely to trade in a volatile manner due to the tug-of-war between reality and expectations [2]. Summaries by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 833.42 with a daily decline of 0.13% and a night - session gain of 0.21%. For silver, the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 with a daily decline of 0.51% and a night - session gain of 0.47%. ETF and inventory data also showed various changes [5]. - **News**: US inflation unexpectedly fell, with August PPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the first decline in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,790 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a night - session increase of 0.50%. The London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,012 with a daily increase of 0.96%. Inventory and spread data also showed changes [9]. - **News**: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and Teck Resources initiated a company - wide operational review and postponed major growth projects. China's 8 - month import data of copper ore and concentrates was released, and there were incidents in the Grasberg mine and a major merger in the mining industry [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [11]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,215 with a daily increase of 0.41%, while the London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2867 with a daily decline of 0.21%. Inventory and spread data changed [12]. - **News**: The Chinese government announced more active fiscal policies, and China's August CPI and PPI data were released [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,795 with a daily decline of 0.80%, and the London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1978 with a daily decline of 0.60%. Inventory decreased [15]. - **News**: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and China's August CPI and PPI data were released [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 270,430 with a daily increase of 0.30% and a night - session increase of 0.93%. The London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 34,635 with a daily increase of 1.76%. Inventory and price data changed [18]. - **News**: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and there were various policy - related news [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,790, and the LME aluminum 3M closed at 2622. Alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding price and trading volume data [21]. - **News**: US inflation unexpectedly fell, and there was news about the Fed's decision - making process [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,850, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,915. Industry chain - related data such as prices and spreads also changed [25]. - **News**: There were various news in the nickel and stainless - steel industries, including production capacity adjustments, environmental issues, and government policies in Indonesia [26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [30].

2025 年 9 月 11 日 原油：修复性反弹延续，短线偏强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI10 月原油期货收涨 1.04 美元/桶，涨幅 1.66%，报 63.67 美元/桶；布伦特 11 月原油期货 收涨 1.10 美元/桶，涨幅 1.65%，报 67.49 美元/桶；SC2510 原油期货收涨 4.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.82%， 报 490.10 元/桶。 1、原油套利流向 | 套利路径 | 对比基准 | 炼厂配置 | 状态 | 套利价值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ($/Bbl) | | 美国墨西哥湾 (USGC) | | | | | | Forties 进入 USGC | WTI MEH | FCC & HCU (裂解) | Closed | -6.3 | | Arab Extra Light 进入 USGC | WTI MEH | FCC & HCU (裂解) | Closed | -6.97 | | Arab Light 进入 USGC | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to have a short - term rebound due to a decline in short - term device operation rates and a tight - balance situation, but remains weak in the fourth quarter. PTA is in a tight - supply - demand balance, with concerns about future supply increases. MEG has a weak unilateral trend but limited downside space [2][10][11] Content Summary by Categories Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rose, while MEG futures prices fell. The PX11 - 1 and PTA11 - 1 month - spreads increased, the MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 month - spreads decreased, and the PF11 - 12 month - spread remained unchanged [4] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha MOPJ spot prices rose, while MEG and Dated Brent spot prices fell. PX - naphtha spread and PTA processing fees decreased, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees increased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [4] Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 10, Asian PX prices rose, supported by rising crude oil prices and concerns about supply shortages. The PX supply remains tight, and downstream polyester activities in China are strong [5][8] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,625 yuan/ton, with mainstream basis at 01 - 63 [8] - **MEG**: The MEG inner - market fluctuated slightly, with the current spot basis at a premium of 116 - 120 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [8] - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved locally, with an estimated average sales volume of about 90%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers also improved, with an average sales volume of 54% [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is 0 [10] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, there may be a rebound. In the long - term, it is weak in the fourth quarter. Suggestions include buying on dips (range: 6,590 - 6,780), 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, and 01/05 long PX short PTA [10] - **PTA**: It is in a tight - supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply increases. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future [10] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Suggest buying on dips [11]