2025年12月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 2025 年 12 月 17 日 对二甲苯：成本坍塌，估值回落 PTA：估值回落 MEG：计划外降负荷改善累库压力，下方短期 有支撑 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本坍塌，估值回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：估值回落 | 2 | | MEG：计划外降负荷改善累库压力，下方短期有支撑 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱20251217 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | 沥青：委油遭扣后，油轮空船走 | 8 | | LLDPE：上方空间有限，基差再度转弱 | 10 | | PP：成交阶段性改善，基差依旧偏弱 | 11 | | 烧碱：后期仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱20251217 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期震荡，趋势承压 | 2 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铝：横盘震荡 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T-1 | | T | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 21845 | -75 | 70 | 220 | 1075 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 21825 | ー | - | - | । | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2883 | 8 | 37 | 21 | 261 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | 241924 | -94530 | -13811 | -3211 | 95764 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 288833 | -5540 | 93107 | -76363 | 40490 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "low-level oscillation" for soybean meal and "oscillation" for soybean No. 1 [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower on December 16, 2025, due to concerns about US export demand and the promising harvest of Brazilian soybeans, which led to some long - position liquidation. The slow pace of China's soybean purchases from the US disappointed traders. The weak energy market also cast a shadow on the soybean market, and the improved outlook for Brazilian soybean production increased the pressure on soybean futures [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2601 closed at 4090 yuan/ton during the day session, down 52 yuan (-1.26%), and 4084 yuan/ton at night, down 18 yuan (-0.44%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2777 yuan/ton during the day session, up 15 yuan (+0.54%), and 2768 yuan/ton at night, up 5 yuan (+0.18%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1063.25 cents/bu, down 9.75 cents (-0.91%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 302.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.39%) [2] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3120 yuan/ton, with different basis levels compared to M2605; in East China, it was 3050 - 3120 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3100 - 3190 yuan/ton. The price changes compared to the previous day varied from region to region [2] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.35 million tons/day, and the inventory was 100.92 million tons/week, showing a decrease compared to the previous data [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures fell to a seven - week low. The reasons included concerns about US soybean export demand, the promising harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the slow pace of China's soybean purchases from the US. The weak energy market and the improved rainfall in Brazilian soybean - producing areas also contributed to the decline [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: With a significant drop in crude oil prices and a comprehensive weakening of polyester demand, there's a need to be cautious of the negative feedback from an unexpected decline in polyester operation rate. PX should not be chased at high prices. The current concentration of polyester industry chain profits in the PX segment is based on the relatively high operation rate of polyester, but the weakening demand will limit the upside of PX. The blending oil logic has ended, and the short - process profit has reached a new high, making it difficult to support PX valuation. PX supply and demand are tight. It is recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 positive spread, and close the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [6]. - PTA: Although the cost - end PX supply and demand are tight, polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses. There may be a negative feedback in the industry chain due to potential production cuts, so the upside of PTA is limited. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 positive spread, and close the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [7]. - MEG: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, leading to some plants' operational shutdowns and a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The 01 contract should not be shorted. Low profits have led to a widespread decline in plant operation enthusiasm. The supply - demand balance sheet of ethylene glycol has slightly improved [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown for maintenance in early October. The naphtha price fell in the late trading session. On December 16, the PX price dropped, with a March Asian spot deal at 828. The PX valuation on December 16 was 827 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars from the previous day [4]. - MEG: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi postponed its restart by half a month. A 600,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan restarted and produced output recently. A 450,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down recently, and the restart time is undetermined [4][5]. - Polyester: A 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Wujiang plans to shut down for maintenance around mid - January and restart after the Spring Festival. On December 16, the sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarns had partial volume increases, with an estimated average sales rate of 5 - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined on December 16, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3:00 pm [5]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6744 | 4668 | 3788 | 6106 | 430.6 | | Change | - 40 | - 28 | 137 | 8 | - 5.9 | | Change Rate | - 0.59% | - 0.60% | 3.75% | 0.13% | - 1.35% | | Month Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 54 | - 60 | - 88 | - 54 | - 2 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 54 | - 68 | - 78 | - 70 | - 0.2 | | Change | 0 | 8 | - 10 | 16 | - 1.8 | | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 827.33 | 4594 | 3636 | 535.62 | 60.2 | | Previous Day's Price | 832.67 | 4615 | 3640 | 545.75 | 61.4 | | Change | - 5.34 | - 21 | - 4 | - 10.12 | - 1.2 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 282.92 | 174.56 | 256.44 | 123.25 | - 4.23 | | Previous Day's Price | 281.42 | 185.2 | 271.42 | 116.31 | - 4.34 | | Change | 1.5 | - 10.64 | - 14.97 | 6.95 | 0.11 | [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铜：美元承压，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 91,920 | -0.52% | 91830 | -0.10% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,619 | -0.57% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 392,295 | -167,901 | 609,616 | -20,649 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 19,885 | -3,296 | 351,000 | -435 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 45,784 | 3,558 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 165,875 | 0 | 39.43% | 0.00% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc market shows an internal - external resonance situation, with a current trend strength of -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 23,030 yuan/ton, down 1.71%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,095 dollars/ton, down 1.40% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 138,540 lots, a decrease of 30,038 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 15,151 lots, a decrease of 3,223 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 73,193 lots, a decrease of 10,109 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 232,789 lots, a decrease of 3,203 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 85 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 31.61 dollars/ton, down 122.21 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 51,134 tons, an increase of 431 tons; LME zinc inventory was 64,475 tons, unchanged [1]. 3.2 News - **US Retail Sales**: In October, US retail sales were flat overall, but core indicators greatly exceeded expectations, with the retail sales control group for GDP calculation up 0.8% month - on - month, the largest increase since June [2]. - **Eurozone Manufacturing PMI**: In December, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI accelerated contraction. Germany's manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.7, while France's PMI rose to 50.6, reaching a 40 - month high [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The zinc trend strength is -1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively bearish sentiment [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing a game between long and short sentiments, resulting in wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 are 5482 and 5444 respectively, down 36 and 34 from the previous trading day. The closing prices of manganese ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 are 5736 and 5776 respectively, down 22 and 20 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5200 yuan/ton, down 20 from the previous trading day. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5540 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Differences**: The spot - 03 futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy is - 282 yuan/ton, up 16; the spot - 03 futures price difference of manganese ferroalloy is - 196 yuan/ton, up 22. The 2603 - 2605 price difference of silicon ferroalloy is 38 yuan/ton, down 2; the 2603 - 2605 price difference of manganese ferroalloy is - 40 yuan/ton, down 2. The 2603 price difference between manganese ferroalloy and silicon ferroalloy is 254 yuan/ton, up 14; the 2605 price difference between them is 332 yuan/ton, up 14 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On December 16, the prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions and the FOB prices are reported. The northern and southern quotes of 6517 silicon - manganese are also given [2]. - **Production Reduction News**: A silicon ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia plans to shut down 4 furnaces on December 12, with an expected daily production reduction of about 350 tons. Qinghai Jinfeng plans to shut down 2 furnaces on December 16, reducing daily production by 70 - 80 tons [2]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: UMK and NMT have announced their manganese ore quotes for China in January 2026, with a 0.05 - dollar/ton - degree increase compared to the previous month [4]. - **Procurement Price**: Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou has set the procurement price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 5710 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 300 tons. Jianlong Iron and Steel's December silicon - manganese tender prices in different regions and the procurement quantities are provided. A steel mill in Jiangsu has set the December silicon - manganese price at 5750 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from November [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铂：向上势头偏强 钯：连续破位冲击前高 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | | 485. 75 | | 0. 69% | | | | 金交所铂金 | | 471. 32 | | 0. 96% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | | 1874. 30 | | 3.22% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | | 1834. 60 | | 2.76% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | | 423. 85 | | 3. 99% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | | 386. 00 | | 4. 89% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | | 1,662.50 | | | | | | | | | | 2. 50% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | | 1.606.00 | | 2. 13% | | | | | ...

| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6110 | ୧୦୫୫ | 22 | PF01-02 | 12 | 14 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6098 | 6074 | 24 | PF02-03 | 8 | -46 | ਦੇ ਕੇ | | | 短纤2603 | 6090 | 6120 | -30 | PF主力基差 | 167 | 181 | -14 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 200193 | 246957 | -46764 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 265 | 6, 255 | 10 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 213686 | 209819 | 3867 | 短纤产销率 | 46% | 79% | -33% | | PR | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 5552 | 5530 | 22 | PR01-02 | -102 | -98 | - ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the documents. Core View - The cancellation of the mining right of Jiangxi Special Electric Machine Co., Ltd. has limited impact, but it may support market sentiment. The company is striving to renew the mining right and is accelerating the preparation for the production of Qiankeng Lithium Mine, which is expected to significantly increase the company's lithium raw material self - sufficiency rate [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 98,740 yuan, a decrease of 360 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 23,802 lots, a decrease of 10,149 lots; the open interest was 92,657 lots, a decrease of 5,642 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 100,600 yuan, a decrease of 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 597,317 lots, a decrease of 102,284 lots; the open interest was 666,027 lots, an increase of 3,842 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 was - 2,890 yuan, an increase of 1,060 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of spot - 2605 was - 4,750 yuan, an increase of 1,160 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of 2601 - 2605 was - 1,860 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,248 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,700 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan, an increase of 700 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,350 yuan, an increase of 700 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Related Product Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39,845 yuan, an increase of 165 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 158,500 yuan, an increase of 200 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 95,962 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 724 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,350 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 700 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangxi Special Electric Machine Co., Ltd.'s mining right of the Shiziling lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province is at risk of cancellation. The company has submitted an objection application and is accelerating the preparation for the production of Qiankeng Lithium Mine [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].