Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 31, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: PX Analysis Core View - Unilateral trend is strong, but do not chase high, buy on dips; 11 - 01 calendar spread is in a positive carry, 1 - 5 is in an inverse carry; for cross - variety, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, long PTA short PX in the 11 contract [3] Supply - Asian PX operating rate is 75.6% (-0.7%), domestic PX operating rate is 83.3% (-1.3%). In September, Fujia Dahua plans to conduct maintenance, while Fuhua Group plans to restart, leading to a marginal increase in supply [3][47] Demand - Domestic PTA plants have unexpected maintenance due to environmental issues, and the PTA operating rate has decreased. There are also potential maintenance plans for Xin Fengming's PTA plants at the end of August [3] Valuation - PXN drops to $254/ton (-$16), PX - MX spread is $135 (-$6)/ton [3] Market Indicators - Zhengshang PX futures forward curve declines; PX CFR China price, PX RMB price, and PX futures prices show certain fluctuations, with the 09 contract's foreign - domestic spread and 9 - 1 month spread changing [15][16] Related Factors - China's gasoline export plan decreases, overseas oil product cracking spreads strengthen; Asian octane value rebounds significantly; US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, and US octane value strengthens month - on - month; MX isomerization unit profit reaches a new high [25][26][33][36] Group 3: PTA Analysis Core View - Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the trend is strong. Buy on dips [4] Supply - After the unexpected shutdown of Hengli Huizhou's device, PTA turns into a de - stocking pattern. Some plants have maintenance or production suspension, and new devices are put into production. The PTA load is 70.4% (-1.2%) [4] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%). In September, the polyester operating rate is expected to be around 91% on average. However, the downstream grey fabric has difficulty in raising prices, and the market has doubts about the peak season, resulting in the polyester operating rate recovering slower than expected [4] Valuation - PTA spot processing fee is 235/ton (+28), the 01 contract processing fee is 342 yuan/ton (-2), and the 09 contract processing fee is 230 (-22), rebounding after a decline [4] Market Indicators - Unilateral price rises first and then falls back; the basis weakens; the 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse carry; the number of PTA warehouse receipts shows certain changes [77][79][81] Related Factors - Container freight rates decline, which is beneficial for exports; PTA exports increase from July to August; PTA inventory declines again [89][91][106] Foreign Investment Position - This week, foreign institutional seats' short positions increase to 26,000 lots; Morgan Qiankun's PTA position turns short again [112][113] Group 4: MEG Analysis Core View - Unilateral is in a sideways market, do not chase high. Above 4550, the valuation is high. Long PTA short MEG [5] Supply - MEG device operating rate continues to rise to 75.1% (+2%). Although some coal - chemical devices have maintenance, the overall load is still at a high level. Overseas arrivals are expected to increase again this week [5][137] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%), and the recovery of polyester operating rate is slower than expected, which has a negative impact on raw materials [5] Valuation - Coal - based MEG profit rebounds to 562 (+40) yuan/ton, naphtha - based MEG loss expands to - 700 (-30) yuan/ton, and MTO profit recovers [5][133] Market Indicators - Unilateral price shows an upward trend, and the month spread is at a low level; MEG's relative valuations against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rise to the highest levels of the year [126][130] Related Factors - Sheng Hong's unexpected shutdown has a slight and short - term impact on the load; overall supply increases; MEG imports are expected to increase in September; overseas device, such as Ma You 75, restarts [135][139][141] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material and Polyester Production Plan - PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons in the second half of the year; PTA production capacity will increase by 6 million tons; MEG production capacity will increase by 800,000 tons; polyester production capacity will increase by 3.05 million tons throughout the year, with a relatively even distribution [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly this week, reaching a high of 20,555 yuan/ton. As the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand may see a slight recovery, but the degree of demand improvement remains to be further observed. The current industry operating rate shows a divergence. Large enterprises have relatively abundant orders and a slightly increased operating rate, while small and medium-sized enterprises face more severe problems such as raw material shortages and production losses, with some reduction or suspension of production. In addition, the policy of canceling tax rebates has been fermenting this week, and the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment. Some enterprises are considering adopting a more cautious business strategy and plan to reduce or suspend production to avoid the risks of policy uncertainty. Overall, both cost support and policy pressure strongly support the price of recycled aluminum, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - As of August 29, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories + social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons from the previous week to 11.58 million tons, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the upstream, the amount of waste generated at the end in August was still lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the downstream, in the fourth week of August (August 18 - August 24), domestic automobile sales were 473,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of nearly 10%, and fuel vehicles performed better than new energy vehicles. Overall, the effect of the trade-in policy is prominent, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which will help stabilize consumer confidence and continuously boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the growth of automobile sales is expected to improve month-on-month [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium-to-high level in history [10]. - Waste aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year-on-year growth rate. In July 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 16.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.68%, and the cumulative import was 117.27 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.35% [14]. - The scrap-to-primary aluminum price difference shows an oscillating trend [19]. Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 converged significantly [26]. - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy weakened, showing certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the monthly operating rate continued to rise [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break-even line [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the social inventory continued to increase [43]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [47]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided. The production shows certain fluctuations, and the factory inventory also varies by region [50][52]. Demand Side Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles declined, which was transmitted to the die-casting consumption [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the delayed arrival of the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, the lead price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand is weak, but the price has strong bottom support. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices and for calendar spreads in the Shanghai Lead futures [8] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract last week was 16,880 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,870 yuan, with a decrease of 0.06%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,988, with a decrease of 0.20% [9] - **Futures Price - Spot Price Spread Changes**: The LME lead cash - 3 months spread changed from -33.79 to -41.07, a decrease of 7.28. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium changed from -25 to 0, an increase of 25 [9] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract last week was 43,853 lots, an increase of 20,908 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 49,182 lots, an increase of 8,017 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 was 5,890 lots, an increase of 771 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9] - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly from 69,900 tons on August 21st to 67,100 tons on August 28th. The LME lead inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [8][9] Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The import TC of 60% lead concentrate was -90 US dollars/ton this week. The production of domestic lead concentrate and its import volume have shown different trends over the years. The inventory in Lianyungang has also fluctuated [8][27] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, and smelters in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Qinghai are under maintenance. The scope of production cuts for secondary lead enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Jiangxi is expanding due to policy impacts and continuous losses [8] - **By - products of Primary Lead**: The prices of 1 silver and 98% sulfuric acid in the East China region have fluctuated over the years, and the output of silver by - products has also changed [36][37] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and its profitability have all shown different trends over the years [38][39][40][41] - **Imports and Exports**: The net import of refined lead, the import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots have all fluctuated over the years [42] Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - **Batteries**: The peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries has not arrived. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has decreased, and large battery manufacturers have started to reduce prices to transfer inventory to dealers. The export volume of batteries has also changed over the years [8][45] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles, and the total monthly production of motorcycles have all shown different trends over the years [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper fundamentals are improving, with downstream demand rising and raw material supply shortages affecting refined copper production. The macro - economy shows resilience, and the good US economic data and demand resilience boost market risk sentiment. The price is expected to rise, with a strength analysis of being relatively strong and a price range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In trading strategies, with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and a slight recovery in macro - sentiment, hold long positions unilaterally. For spread trading, the low domestic inventory is conducive to positive carry arbitrage. Given the low copper volatility and increasing macro - disturbance risks in the future, pay attention to opportunities to go long on volatility [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: COMEX copper volatility dropped significantly, while the volatility of SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 15%, a significant drop from before [14]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot discount was large. The SHFE copper 09 - 10 spread decreased from a premium of 40 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 30 yuan/ton on August 29. The LME0 - 3 discount on August 29 was 80.26 US dollars/ton, slightly wider than the previous week. The COMEX copper C - structure was stable [16][17]. - **Position**: COMEX copper positions decreased, SHFE copper and INE copper positions increased, and LME copper positions remained flat. SHFE copper positions increased by 24,600 lots to 486,200 lots [19]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased. LME commercial short net positions decreased from 44,700 lots to 43,700 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 26,032 lots on August 19 to 26,230 lots on August 26 [25]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the bonded - zone copper premium recovered. The domestic copper spot premium widened from a premium of 150 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 250 yuan/ton on August 29. The Yangshan Port copper premium recovered from 51 US dollars/ton on August 22 to 55 US dollars/ton on August 29 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Global total inventory decreased, with domestic social inventory and bonded - zone inventory both decreasing. Global copper total inventory decreased from 605,600 tons on August 21 to 601,300 tons on August 28. Domestic social inventory decreased from 131,700 tons on August 21 to 127,100 tons on August 28, and bonded - zone inventory decreased from 79,300 tons to 75,100 tons [32][35]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio declined, weakening the logic of spot shortages overseas. The SHFE copper 09 contract position - to - inventory ratio is at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [36]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory increased from 473,000 tons on August 22 to 550,000 tons on August 29. The spot TC on August 29 was - 41.48 US dollars/ton, with a smelting loss of 3,196 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports decreased year - on - year, and domestic production increased slightly. In July, recycled copper imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and domestic recycled copper production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper spread narrowed, and the import loss of recycled copper widened [41][46]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports increased, and processing fees were at a low level. In July, blister copper imports were 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The domestic processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was 95 US dollars/ton [51]. - **Refined Copper**: Production increased more than expected, imports increased, and the profit from copper spot imports expanded. In July, domestic refined copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. In July, imports were 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The profit from spot imports increased from 65.62 yuan/ton on August 22 to 190.84 yuan/ton on August 29 [56]. 3.3 Demand End - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: In July, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The copper tube capacity utilization rate in July was at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the copper plate, strip, and foil capacity utilization rate was at a neutral - low level. The wire and cable capacity utilization rate declined in the week of August 28 [59]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees were at a neutral level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees were at a low level. As of August 29, the processing fee for copper rods in the power industry in East China was 725 yuan/ton, higher than 630 yuan/ton on August 22. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes on August 29 was 5,073 yuan/ton, higher than 5,071 yuan/ton on August 22 [64]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In July, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level [65]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods decreased, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable increased. In July, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level compared to the same period in history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.71%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.02%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [73]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In July, domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%. In July, domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [75].

铁矿石周度观点 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 ◼ 供应：全球发运自高位小幅回调，边际变化较小；最近一周澳升巴降，另外非主流贡献主要减量。 ◼ 需求：铁水与五大材产量依然维持在相对高位，较去年同期显现出幅度较大的增量，支撑着铁矿现货的即期需求。 ◼ 宏观层面：8月制造业PMI环比小幅回升，但仍在50荣枯线之下；另外近期国内上市主体集中发布上半年财报，利润表现继续为 宏观风偏提供交易情绪上的支撑；但仍需警惕宏观强预期的过度计价以及潜在的风偏快速回落风险。 ◼ 逻辑总结阐述：对于铁矿盘面估值来说，前期反内卷主题交易启动后，矿价被大幅推高并维持在相对高位，几次阶段性的回调幅 度均较为有限；但考虑到钢铁秋季需求旺季即将到来，产业与宏观预期在淡季大幅抢跑后，现实基本面即将迎来旺季需求兑现的 考验，叠加铁矿未来海外供给增量的预期，预计其高估值在接下来或面临一定考验。 铁矿合约表现 ◼ 主力01合约价格周环比收涨，收于787.5元/吨，持仓47.4 万手，持仓增加2.1万手；日均成交量25.2万手，日均成 交周环比+0.54万手。 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind W ...

供需基本面:工业硅本周行业库存小幅去库;多晶硅上游库存转移至下游 工业硅供给端,周度行业库存小幅去库。据咨询商统计,本周新疆、云南地区开工抬升,整体周产边际 增加。西北地区,本周当地硅厂亦有复产,不过整体节奏偏慢,其后续复产节奏较为关键。此外,云南后续 复产幅度亦较少，部分原因与年水期剩余时间段有关,此外云南多生产低钙产品而并非期货仓单,在盘面上 为非标套的逻辑,若盘面后续突发性的上涨亦会影响当下期现商/贸易商参与进来的意愿。库存来看,本周 期货仓单环比上周有所去库,本周仓单去库 0.3万吨。SMM 统计本周社会库存去库 0.2万吨,厂摩库存去 库 0.16万吨,整体行业库存小幅去库,后续关注期货仓单的注册数量。 2025年08月 31 日 直宮期。 关注下周消 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面先跌后涨,现货价格有所下跌;多晶硅盘面弱势震荡,现货报价抬升 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面整体跌势,市场更多交易上游复产等逻辑,周五收于 8390元/吨。 现货市场价格有所下跌，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅银价 8450 元/吨（环比不变）， ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 8 月 31 日 棉花：新棉上市前期价波动加大 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 8 月 29 日当周，ICE 棉花下跌，市场等待美棉新作上市，整体交投比较清淡，由于缺乏基本面 方面的消息刺激，ICE 棉花上涨动能不足，维持偏弱震荡，不过在跌到 66.5 美分/磅附近有一些商业和技 术性买盘。 国内棉花期货下半周波动加大，一方面在旧作库存偏紧而新作预售较快的情况下，在新棉大量上市之 前，供应的不确定性和高基差对 CF01 构成较强支撑；另一方面，旧作 09 和 11 月面临较大的交割压力， 新作丰产预期和需求前景不明朗，令轧花厂有逢高套保的需求，所以，棉花期货表现为阶段性的近弱远 强，同时 01 合约上的多空分歧加大。综合来看，在新棉大量上市之前，暂时维持郑棉期货震荡的判断， 短期注意金融市场情绪的影响，另外需要关注产业政策方面的消息。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 行情数据 表 1:棉花、棉纱期货数据 | | 开盘价 | 最高价 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Report Core View - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly at the beginning of the week but quickly fell as delivery issues were resolved. Overseas, Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil exports remained high in August, and the high-sulfur market in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak power generation and refining demand, with low import volumes in the Middle East and China. Only the fact that Russia's export volume has not significantly recovered provides some support for the valuation. Domestically, the issue of the delivery warehouse being sanctioned has been resolved with a significant increase in on - exchange warehouse receipts, which will continue to suppress the FU futures price. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Asia - Pacific spot market is still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their exports of low - sulfur fuel oil to the Asia - Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, increasing spot supply and suppressing spot prices. Domestically, the newly issued export quota is the core factor affecting the futures price trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short - term prices; if the quota increases significantly year - on - year, it means that future port spot supply will be abundant, and the price of near - month contracts will continue to be suppressed. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2750 - 3000, and LU is valued at 3400 - 3600. - Strategy: - Unilateral: FU will continue to be weak in the short term, and LU will fluctuate in a narrow range. - Inter - period: The near - term spread of FU may continue to decline; LU will maintain its current structure. - Inter - variety: The crack spread of FU has fallen to the historical average and may rise in the future; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 through charts. - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU units, hydrocracking units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: The report shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil by Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [6][8][19] Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: The report presents the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [22] Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: The report shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 through charts. [25] Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Price: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - European Regional Spot FOB Price: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Price: The report provides relevant price data through charts. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025 through charts. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It presents the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 through charts. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: It presents the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 through charts. [33][37][45][47][57][59][64] Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The report shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 through charts. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It presents the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions through charts. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions through charts. [68][73][75] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The report provides the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore fuel oil from August 25 - 29, 2025. It also shows the historical internal - external spreads of different fuel oil products through charts. Additionally, it presents the changes in the trading volume and open interest of FU and LU, as well as the changes in the number of warehouse receipts through charts. [79][83][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions and positive spreads with a light position [5][6]. - In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. There may still be opportunities for a repair rebound in September. Brent and WTI may challenge $70 - 75 per barrel, and SC may challenge 520 - 560 yuan per barrel. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on oil prices is relatively large. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [6]. - The logic for the short - term view is that aside from geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, there may be a small - scale rebound in September at the end of the peak season, mainly due to OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, a potential decline in U.S. shale oil production (to be verified), and relatively low inventory centers in the U.S. and Europe. However, the rebound space may be limited due to high inventories in Asia and the expectation of future inventory accumulation. The overseas macro - market risk appetite has stabilized. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions, with a relatively low probability of short - term interruption. The medium - to - long - term bearish view is mainly based on the large long - term oversupply pressure caused by production increases from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., and inventory accumulation is difficult to disprove [6]. - In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there may still be a chance of a rebound in the second half of the third quarter, but the space is limited. For trading strategies, in the short - term, hold long positions with a light position; in the long - term, short at high prices and trend - short. For inter - period trading, focus on positive spreads (buy SC10, sell 11 and 12). For inter - variety trading, the EFS spread and SC - Dubai may reverse [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Pay attention to the Russia - U.S. negotiations and the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation [11]. - Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [22]. 2. Supply - Global crude oil supply shows obvious regional and oil - type differentiation. Light sweet oil (WTI/Brent) is under price pressure due to the weak economy in Europe and the U.S. and the uncertainty of the Fed's policy. Brent is rarely at a discount to Dubai (-$0.09 per barrel). Medium - sulfur crude oil (such as Russian Urals and Middle East Dubai) maintains a tight balance due to OPEC+'s compensatory production cuts and restricted exports from Iran and Venezuela. Heavy crude oil (Canadian AWB, Iraqi Basra Heavy) is supported by the residue chemical demand of Chinese refineries, but the resumption of U.S. imports from Venezuela has alleviated some of the tightness. Geographically, Middle East exports are stable, the discount of African light oil (such as Nigerian) has widened due to European demand shifting to the Americas, and Eastern Europe (Druzhba pipeline) faces a risk of supply interruption due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The production and export situations of various countries are as follows: Iraq's production is limited, with only 3.9 million barrels per day in July (target of 4.12 million barrels per day), which is bullish. The UAE's production exceeds 3 million barrels per day, and its export volume reached 3.31 million barrels per day in July (close to a historical high), which is bullish. It plans to maintain the Upper Zakum oil field (with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day) in October, with an expected production cut of 150,000 - 200,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's shipping volume in September dropped to 1.43 million barrels per day (a five - month low), which is bearish. Saudi Aramco's exports to China decreased by 160,000 barrels per day in July due to a pricing strategy error. Guyana's new production, Golden Arrowhead, will increase to 200,000 barrels per day, but weak European demand has led to a $3 per barrel price drop (Liza is now at a $1.25 per barrel discount compared to North Sea Dated), which is bearish. Malaysia's shadow fleet is still active, with 52 sanctioned oil tankers conducting ship - to - ship transfers at the EOPL anchorage, mainly flowing to China, which is neutral. Russia's top three buyers are India, China, and Turkey. India imported 1.82 million barrels per day of Urals crude oil in the first half of the year, accounting for 90% of Russia's seaborne exports. Under EU sanctions, the FOB discount of Urals in the Baltic Sea has widened to $13 per barrel compared to North Sea Dated, which is neutral. India continues to import (with a loading volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day in August), and the CIF discount in India has narrowed to $2.80 per barrel (compared to North Sea Dated). Norway's medium - acid crude oil (such as Johan Sverdrup) prices have fallen due to weakened seasonal demand, which is bearish [7]. - The U.S. production reached 13.42 million barrels per day in July, and Canada's was 4.7 million barrels per day, with a total of 18.12 million barrels per day in North America, which is bullish. Kazakhstan's production has continuously exceeded the quota, and the supply of CPC Blend has increased, which is bearish. Chevron may resume imports from Venezuela, improving the heavy - oil supply in the U.S. Gulf. The U.S. Chevron resumed imports in August, alleviating the tightness of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, which is bearish. China has a workaround for importing Iranian crude oil through the Malacca Linggi Port, with an estimated actual supply of 1.25 million barrels per day from January to May (not reflected in customs data), which is bullish. China's imports from Malaysia decreased by 400,000 barrels per day in July due to the doubled cost of re - exporting Iranian crude oil through Malaysia. Syria restarted its crude oil exports for the first time since 2011, selling "Syrian Heavy" crude oil (22 - 25.72°API, 4.2% sulfur) at a $10 per barrel discount compared to North Sea Dated, which is neutral. Nigeria's light - crude - oil discount has widened (European demand has shifted to U.S. WTI and Brazilian crude oil). In September 2025, it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, completely lifting the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day since November 2023, and the UAE's quota will increase by 300,000 barrels per day. This may lead to a market surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, and a further surplus of 1 million barrels per day in 2026. The export volume in August was the same as that in Q1 because the compensatory production cut (2.2 million barrels per day) offset the production - increase plan, which is neutral [8]. - The U.S. shale oil drilling number and production have rebounded [58]. 3. Demand - The demand market shows regional and oil - product structural differences. Asia (especially China and India) remains the core of growth. China's apparent demand remains stable (16.6 million barrels per day), and independent refineries have shifted to fuel - oil processing due to exhausted quotas. India supplements Brazilian crude oil through long - term contracts, but Russian oil still has a cost advantage. Demand in Europe and the U.S. is differentiated: U.S. gasoline consumption has decreased by 4% year - on - year, but distillates (diesel/aviation kerosene) are supported by seasonal agricultural and industrial demand. The ARA diesel inventory in Europe has dropped to an 18 - month low (12.9 million barrels), reflecting a structural shortage under the closure of refining capacity. In the long term, the upgrade of Chinese refineries (such as residue chemical processing) will increase the demand for high - sulfur oil, while European low - carbon policies will suppress fossil - fuel consumption [6]. - The demand situations of various countries and regions are as follows: In China, the gasoline cracking spread has risen to a 16 - month high (the Singapore 92R crack spread is $12.08 per barrel) due to reduced exports (175,000 barrels per day in August compared to 300,000 barrels per day in July) and refinery maintenance. China receives Iranian crude oil through STS in Malaysia (with an actual import of about 1.25 million barrels per day, not reflected in customs data). In July, the apparent demand remained at a high level of 16.6 million barrels per day, with a 150,000 - barrel - per - day decrease in diesel demand offset by aviation kerosene and LPG. Independent refineries have shifted to processing diluted bitumen (150,000 barrels per day imported in July) and fuel oil (280,000 barrels per day) due to restricted Iranian crude - oil imports. The petrochemical demand in Asia is strong, with an implied consumption of 1 million barrels per day of chemical raw materials in the "other unreported" category. In India, it continues to import Russian Urals, with the arrival volume in August decreasing by 20% year - on - year as Russian oil has shifted to China (exports to China increased by 8% in July). It will resume purchasing Russian Urals crude oil in October due to an expanded discount of $3.05 per barrel (delivered at the west coast of India). It has signed a long - term contract with Brazil for the first time (6 million barrels from 2025 - 2026), but it cannot replace the cost advantage of Russian oil. In the U.S., refineries are operating at a high rate (the crude - oil inventory only increased by 2.1 million barrels in July), but gasoline demand has decreased by 4% year - on - year. The distillate inventory has increased by 9.8 million barrels, reflecting a strong diesel cracking spread (summer agricultural and industrial demand). In Europe, the ARA diesel inventory has dropped to an 18 - month low (12.9 million barrels) due to the closure of 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity. The demand for Russian CPC blended oil has slowed down before the maintenance season in Europe. In North America, the demand in July decreased by 4.1% year - on - year (to 8.916 million barrels per day) due to the popularization of hybrid vehicles improving energy efficiency. The fuel - oil inventory in the Gulf region has reached a 35 - year low (8.8 million barrels), but the gasoline inventory has increased. The North Sea Dated has dropped to $68.21 per barrel, and WTI has remained stable at $63.92 per barrel. Dubai has risen against the trend by $1.18 per barrel to $69.80 per barrel due to alternative demand from Iran. Affected by the weak European economy (Germany's contraction in Q2, the French government crisis) and geopolitical conflicts, the EFS spread with Dubai has dropped to -$0.09 per barrel on August 27, the first discount since April [9]. - The refinery operating rates in the U.S. and Europe are seasonally declining. The operating rate of China's major refineries is declining, while that of local refineries is rising [60]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventories are declining, and the inventory in the Cushing area is declining and significantly lower than the historical average [63]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly. European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined - oil margins are recovering [68][70][71]. 5. Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis has rebounded slightly. The month - spread has dropped to a low level. SC is stronger than the external market, and the month - spread has stabilized. The net long - position has declined [75][76][77][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost - end support continues due to the difficulty in raw material release affected by rainfall in the producing areas. The spot inventory continues the destocking trend, strengthening the fundamental support and driving the rubber price up. With the approaching of the domestic parade, there will be a short - term impact on the downstream operating rate. The tire export data in July was good due to the low base in June and the effect of rush - to - export, and there is an expectation of a decline in August. The market is expected to show a range - bound trend [77][78]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - Thailand and China plan to launch a zero - tariff rubber trade project via the Mekong River in September 2025. The initial shipment is 400 tons, and the monthly export is expected to exceed 10,000 tons after October [5]. - In July 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 914,680 units, but the cumulative sales in the first seven months decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The market share of pure electric vehicles was 15.6%, and hybrid vehicles were still the most popular [6]. - In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the total exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first seven months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 9.3% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 29% year - on - year [8]. Market Trend - This week, domestic and Singapore rubber prices rose, while Japanese rubber prices slightly declined. On August 29, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15860 yuan/ton, 12795 yuan/ton, 175.90 cents/kg, and 315.50 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.50%, 1.51%, 1.85%, and - 0.41% [11][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On August 29, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 910 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 36.81%. The 01 - 05 month spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20.00% and a year - on - year increase of 48.39% [18]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On August 29, 2025, the spreads were 3065 yuan/ton, 3975 yuan/ton, 300.82 yuan/ton, and 539.26 yuan/ton respectively [22][23]. - The spreads of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber and 3L rubber to Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 29, 2025, the spreads were 150 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively [32][33]. Substitute Prices - This week, the cost of butadiene - based rubber was strongly supported, and the prices of butadiene - based rubber increased. On August 29, 2025, the prices of butadiene - based rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Chinese mainstream market were 11950 yuan/ton and 12450 yuan/ton respectively [35]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a low level, and the settled funds were also at a low level. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased again, and the settled funds also increased again. On August 29, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 9.52 and 27.20 respectively, and the settled funds were 53.60 billion yuan and 31.62 billion yuan respectively [37][38]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region in the past month was higher than the same period in previous years, and the rainfall in Hainan, China, increased significantly [42][43]. - On August 29, 2025, the prices of Thai cup lump, glue, smoked sheet, and raw sheet were 50.50 baht/kg, 55.45 baht/kg, 61.08 baht/kg, and 58.58 baht/kg respectively [47]. - The price spread between Thai glue and cup lump decreased, and the price spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex production and whole - milk production increased [53][54]. - The production profits of Thai smoked sheet and concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex decreased [56][57]. - In July 2025, China imported 47.48 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% [60][61]. Demand - This week, most tire enterprises maintained stable production, some continued to control production, and a few enterprises carried out maintenance. On August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires were 70.97% and 64.89% respectively [64][65]. - In July 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires were excellent, the sales of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover, and the sales of passenger cars decreased seasonally but remained at a high level year - on - year [68][69]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of natural rubber decreased, with a greater decline than expected. The inbound volume at Qingdao Port decreased by 22% compared with the previous period, while the outbound volume decreased by only 1% [71]. - On August 29, 2025, the futures inventories of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and their corresponding deliverable inventories were 17.86 million tons, 21.24 million tons, 4.57 million tons, and 4.88 million tons respectively [74]. This Week's View Summary - The supply side is affected by rainfall, and the cost support continues. The inventory continues to decrease, strengthening the fundamental support. The approaching parade will impact the downstream operating rate in the short term. The tire export in August is expected to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [78]. - Suggested strategies include waiting and watching, lightly testing long positions at low prices for the 01 contract, conducting 11 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and observing for inter - variety trading [78].