| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6110 | ୧୦୫୫ | 22 | PF01-02 | 12 | 14 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6098 | 6074 | 24 | PF02-03 | 8 | -46 | ਦੇ ਕੇ | | | 短纤2603 | 6090 | 6120 | -30 | PF主力基差 | 167 | 181 | -14 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 200193 | 246957 | -46764 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 265 | 6, 255 | 10 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 213686 | 209819 | 3867 | 短纤产销率 | 46% | 79% | -33% | | PR | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 5552 | 5530 | 22 | PR01-02 | -102 | -98 | - ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the documents. Core View - The cancellation of the mining right of Jiangxi Special Electric Machine Co., Ltd. has limited impact, but it may support market sentiment. The company is striving to renew the mining right and is accelerating the preparation for the production of Qiankeng Lithium Mine, which is expected to significantly increase the company's lithium raw material self - sufficiency rate [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 98,740 yuan, a decrease of 360 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 23,802 lots, a decrease of 10,149 lots; the open interest was 92,657 lots, a decrease of 5,642 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 100,600 yuan, a decrease of 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 597,317 lots, a decrease of 102,284 lots; the open interest was 666,027 lots, an increase of 3,842 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 was - 2,890 yuan, an increase of 1,060 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of spot - 2605 was - 4,750 yuan, an increase of 1,160 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of 2601 - 2605 was - 1,860 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,248 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,700 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan, an increase of 700 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,350 yuan, an increase of 700 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Related Product Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39,845 yuan, an increase of 165 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 158,500 yuan, an increase of 200 yuan compared to T - 1 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 95,962 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 724 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,350 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 700 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangxi Special Electric Machine Co., Ltd.'s mining right of the Shiziling lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province is at risk of cancellation. The company has submitted an objection application and is accelerating the preparation for the production of Qiankeng Lithium Mine [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

2025 年 12 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11480 | | 0 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12050 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11390 | | -10 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 45 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11930 | | ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 沥青：委油遭扣后，油轮空船走 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,894 | -2.33% | 2,869 | -0.86% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,916 | -2.21% | 2,886 | -1.03% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 372,360 | 161,403 | 237,057 | 29,936 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 109,819 | 42,511 | 115,229 | 17,081 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54100 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 棕榈油：原油大幅下挫，偏弱震荡运行 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,410 | 涨跌幅 -0.97% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,290 | 涨跌幅 -1.43% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,872 | -0.86% | 7,820 | -0.66% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,063 | -1.45% | 8,970 | -1.03% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,957 | -1.22% | 3,932 | -0.76% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 48.95 | -2.12% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 370,066 | -73379 | 416,337 | 23,439 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for industrial silicon is to short on rallies [1] - For polysilicon, some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides detailed fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot prices, profits, inventories, and raw material costs [2] - It also presents macro and industry news, such as the power supply situation and electricity consumption forecasts [2][4] - The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with -1 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Si2605 closing price is 8,365 yuan/ton, with a change of -655 compared to T - 22; PS2605 closing price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 570 from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot has different premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, and polysilicon spot has a discount against N - type re - investment material [2] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 52300 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 2919.5 yuan/ton and - 5344 yuan/ton respectively; polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventories**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 56.1 tons, enterprise inventory is 18.7 tons, and industry inventory is 74.8 tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 29.3 tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with little change in most cases [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - This year, the national power supply has remained safe and stable, and the annual social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh [2][4] - In 2025, the national total power generation installed capacity will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a 14% year - on - year increase, and the social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time [4] 3. Trend Intensities - Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view; polysilicon trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish view [4]

2025年12月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：失业率上行 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：美元承压，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：内外盘共振 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：横盘震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：向上势头偏强 | 14 | | 钯：连续破位冲击前高 | 14 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 16 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：矿权注销影响有限，但情绪或有支撑 | 18 | | 工业硅：逢高做空为主 | 20 | | 多晶硅：部分企业报价抬升，关注实际成交 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 27 | | 焦煤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - On December 16, 2025, the four major stock index futures contracts of the current month all declined. The overall trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decline of A - share three major stock indexes, the sudden increase in the decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index, and various domestic and international economic news [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Index Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: On December 16, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) and their corresponding futures contracts all declined. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4497.55, down 1.20%, and IF2512 closed at 4499.4, down 1.16% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 29570 hands, IH by 10967 hands, IC by 30892 hands, and IM by 61780 hands. In terms of open interest, IF increased by 15801 hands, IH decreased by 266 hands, IC increased by 14266 hands, and IM increased by 36380 hands [1][2] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts varied. For example, the basis of IF2512 was 1.85, while that of IF2603 was - 46.15 [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member's Open Interest Changes in Index Futures - The open - interest changes of long and short positions in the top 20 members of different contracts were different. For example, in the IF2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 737, and the short positions decreased by 2678 [5] 3.3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6] 3.4. Important Drivers - **A - share Market**: The three major A - share stock indexes declined unilaterally, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. Nearly 4300 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.11% at 3824.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. The A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan [6] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: In the afternoon of the 16th, the decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index suddenly increased, and the decline of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index widened to 2%. The decline of some large - cap stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent increased, and the corresponding call warrants tumbled [6] - **Domestic Policy News**: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office pointed out that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. Hainan will officially launch the full - island customs closure on December 18, 2025, and the preferential tariff policies will be optimized [7] - **US Economic Data**: The US non - farm payrolls in November increased by 64,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, a new high since September 2021. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results [7][8]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锌 | ★★★★ | 锌：内外盘共振，锌价震荡下行。昨日 LME 新加坡仓库注册仓单大增，疑似有巨头释放手中 货源。此次集中交仓后盘面集中度明显下降，LME0-3 结构也由 Back 转为 Contango，近 端呈现出宽松状态。我们认为此轮海外逼仓行情已经告一段落，后续出口窗口关闭下，国内 去库节奏也预计放缓，盘面或重新回归空头主导行情。长周期来看，当下正处于锌矿扩产周 期尾声，明年全球锌矿增量项目相对有限，增量集中在前期爬产的几个大型项目。一方面， 矿山产能提升需要一定时间，部分项目明年能否达到满负荷存在疑问。另一方面，矿山增量 存在结构性分化，海外锌矿增量有限，叠加生产扰动增加，锌矿紧平衡或成为常态。这也意 味着 TC 的持续承压，明年 TC 上行空间或低于今年，锌价具备上浮的弹性。整体来看，我们 认为供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格，消费走阔决定价格上方空间，"十五五"开局之年预计政 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-17 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to reduce and take profit on short positions and conduct short - term observation [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.62, a 1.08% decline, to $56.82 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.56, a 0.92% decline, to $60.56 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed down 5.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.26% decline, to 431.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties' arbitrage windows are closed, such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc. Only Ecuador's Napo crude oil presents significant arbitrage opportunities with an arbitrage space of $5.25 per barrel [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, especially Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $24.95 per barrel due to sanctions [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light all present arbitrage opportunities, with Eagle Ford having a relatively competitive advantage [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of most crude oil varieties against Urals are closed, such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, etc. [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya have their arbitrage windows closed or lack competitiveness [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Regarding the Fed, there are speculations about the candidate for the Fed chair; API crude oil inventory data shows a significant decrease; Bostic suggests maintaining interest rates in 2026; the US November non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000 and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high of 4.6% [12]