Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July has narrowed for two consecutive months, with the profits of high - tech manufacturing showing significant year - on - year growth. The real estate market has policies to stimulate growth, and the "AI + Action Opinion" has been issued. Overseas, the US Q2 GDP has been revised upwards. The market volume has reached a high level, and leveraged funds are still flowing in. The mid - cap stocks are stronger than large - cap stocks, which are stronger than small and micro - cap stocks [3]. - During the gap - up rise on Monday this week, the basis quickly declined, indicating weak sentiment on the futures side. IH and IF are still in a state of slight premium, while the annualized discounts of IC and IM have returned to around 8% and 11%, respectively. The term structure has sunk at the near end, and the hedging cost - effectiveness of far - month contracts has increased. The cost - effectiveness of spot - futures arbitrage for near - month contracts has significantly decreased [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Basis Changes**: For IF contracts, the basis of IF2509 decreased from 16.00 to 9.44, a change of - 6.56; for IH contracts, IH2509's basis decreased from 13.39 to 3.53, a change of - 9.86; for IC contracts, IC2509's basis decreased from - 12.45 to - 47.14, a change of - 34.69; for IM contracts, IM2509's basis decreased from - 14.34 to - 72.08, a change of - 57.74 [1]. - **Index - enhancing Annualized Returns**: The index - enhancing annualized returns of IC and IM contracts are relatively high, such as 12.1% for IC2509 and 16.7% for IM2509 [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: This week, the average daily trading volume of IH was 77,971 lots, a 17.1% increase from the previous week, and the open interest was 108,028 lots, a 4.8% decrease. The average daily trading volume of IF was 177,610 lots, a 36.3% increase, and the open interest was 293,331 lots, a 5.9% increase. The average daily trading volume of IC was 160,370 lots, a 32.9% increase, and the open interest was 248,432 lots, a 6.3% increase. The average daily trading volume of IM was 320,181 lots, a 14.6% increase, and the open interest was 388,014 lots, a 0.8% decrease [4]. - **Basis after Considering Dividends**: For example, for the IF2509 contract, the basis after considering dividends is 11.57, with an expected total dividend of 2.13 points and an annualized premium - discount rate of 4.47% [5]. 2. Hedging Profits and Losses - **IF Contracts**: The hedging profit of IF2509 this week was 6.56, compared with - 8.96 last week; for IF2512, it was 4.96 this week compared with - 10.76 last week [11]. - **IH Contracts**: The hedging profit of IH2509 this week was 9.86, compared with 0.14 last week; for IH2512, it was 12.06 this week compared with 0.34 last week [11]. - **IC Contracts**: The hedging profit of IC2509 this week was 34.69, compared with - 25.12 last week; for IC2512, it was 68.09 this week compared with - 40.12 last week [11]. - **IM Contracts**: The hedging profit of IM2509 this week was 57.74, compared with - 16.96 last week; for IM2512, it was 91.34 this week compared with - 24.56 last week [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the decline of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed for two consecutive months, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly year - on - year, playing a leading role [2]. - Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, stimulating the real estate sector to lead the gains. The trend of real estate stopping decline and stabilizing may be further strengthened [2]. - The State Council issued an "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinion", and the State Council Information Office press conference stated that policies to expand service consumption would be introduced to stimulate new growth in service consumption [2]. - In the overseas market, the US GDP in the second quarter was revised upwards due to a significant increase in fixed - asset investment, while the PCE price index remained the same as the initial value [2]. - This week, the market trading volume reached a high again, with the total A - share market achieving a turnover of 3.2 trillion yuan in two trading days, ranking second in history. Leveraged funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 883 billion yuan this week after a net inflow of over 900 billion yuan last week [2]. - The speculation in micro - cap stocks took a slight rest, the micro - cap index led the decline among core indices, and the market of the STAR Market and ChiNext continued. Overall, mid - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and large - cap stocks outperformed micro - and small - cap stocks. The CSI 500 rose more than 3%, leading the core broad - based indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen [2]. - In terms of basis, the basis dropped rapidly during the gap - up on Monday this week, indicating weak sentiment on the futures side. IH and IF were still in a slight premium state, while the annualized discounts of IC and IM returned to around 8% and 11%, respectively, falling into the lower quantile range of history. The near - end of the term structure declined, and the hedging cost - effectiveness of far - month contracts increased. There was still some profit space for cash - and - carry arbitrage in near - month contracts, but it had been significantly compressed, and the impact of transaction cost wear was large. The cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage at the current position declined significantly [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Situation This Week - Industrial profit: The decline of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed for two consecutive months, and high - tech manufacturing profits increased significantly year - on - year [2]. - Real estate policy: Shanghai optimized real estate policies, and Beijing and Shanghai implemented policies to stabilize the property market, with the real estate market showing a trend of stopping decline [2]. - Policy on service consumption: The State Council issued an "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinion", and policies to expand service consumption will be introduced [2]. - Overseas market: The US GDP in the second quarter was revised upwards due to fixed - asset investment growth, and the PCE price index remained unchanged [2]. - Market trading volume: The total A - share market achieved a turnover of 3.2 trillion yuan in two trading days, ranking second in history [2]. - Fund flow: Leveraged funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 883 billion yuan this week after over 900 billion yuan last week [2]. - Stock index performance: Mid - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and large - cap stocks outperformed micro - and small - cap stocks. The CSI 500 rose more than 3% [2]. - Basis situation: The basis dropped rapidly on Monday, IH and IF were slightly in premium, IC and IM annualized discounts returned to around 8% and 11%, far - month contract hedging cost - effectiveness increased, and near - month contract cash - and - carry arbitrage profit space was compressed [2] Basis Forecast for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will weaken next week [3] Recent Forecast Conclusion - There are historical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data in the text [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected to occur around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6]. - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. Starting from September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - CEA24 single - item auction was sold at the reserve price with a 95% unsold rate due to price - raising behavior yesterday [4]. - For CEA, the main targets declined to varying degrees, with 36.4 tons listed and 89.7 tons in bulk transactions [4]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 0.24 tons, and the average transaction price was 80.97 yuan/ton, a 1.21% change [4]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Data | CEA Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.00 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 69.72 | - 0.83% | - 0.28 | N/A | 1.05 | 1.05 | | CEA23 | 69.11 | - 0.59% | - 0.61 | 66.48 | 62.33 | 15.19 | | CEA24 | 69.42 | - 0.52% | 0.31 | 69.34 | 63.28 | 20.20 | [8] CCER Data - The average transaction price of CCER was 80.97 yuan/ton, with a 1.21% change, a trading volume of 0.24 tons, and a turnover of 19.11 million yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 250.40 tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the document. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 29, 2025, including the strength or weakness of the shock, resistance levels, and support levels [2]. - The report also analyzes the market conditions of various futures on August 28, 2025, including the opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, and provides an outlook for the August trend of some futures contracts [43]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, setting goals for 2030 and 2035 [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce carried out activities such as visiting Canada, meeting with US officials, and supporting foreign - trade enterprises [8]. - Market supervision总局 carried out comprehensive rectification of market competition order [9]. - The Central Education Work Leading Group issued a plan for the adjustment and optimization of higher - education disciplines and specialties [9]. - US economic data showed that the Q2 GDP growth rate was revised upwards, and the core PCE price index was lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected [9]. - A lawsuit related to the independence of the Federal Reserve was filed [9]. - The euro - zone economic sentiment index declined in August, and the EU proposed legislative proposals related to tariffs [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On August 28, international precious - metal futures generally rose, and oil prices rebounded due to inventory decline. London base metals all rose, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [11][12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 28, the stock - index futures of IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends of opening, rising, and falling, and the A - share market generally rose, while the Hong Kong stock market fell. The US and European stock markets had different trends [13][16][17]. - It is expected that on August 29, stock - index futures will be strongly volatile, and specific resistance and support levels are given [19]. Bond Futures - On August 28, the ten - year and thirty - year bond - futures main contracts showed a weak trend, and the central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rose [37]. - It is expected that on August 29, the ten - year and thirty - year bond - futures main contracts will be weakly and widely volatile, and specific resistance and support levels are given [38][41]. Precious - Metal Futures - On August 28, the gold and silver futures main contracts showed a rising trend. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will be widely volatile, and on August 29, they will be strongly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels given [43][50]. Base - Metal Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and poly - silicon futures showed different trends of rising, falling, and fluctuating. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these futures will have different trends, and on August 29, specific trends and resistance and support levels are given [52][61][67]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of coke, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures showed different trends. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these futures will have different trends, and on August 29, specific trends and resistance and support levels are given [88][90][96]. Agricultural Futures - On August 28, the main contracts of soybean meal and natural rubber futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 29, they will be weakly volatile, with specific resistance and support levels given [107][110].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Soybean Meal: Stable US Soybeans, Fluctuating Dalian Soybean Meal" and was released on August 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Wu Guangjing, with an investment consulting qualification number of Z0011992 and an email of wuguangjing@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Futures and Spot Price Information Futures - DCE Soybean 2511 closed at 3927 yuan/ton during the day session, down 8 yuan (-0.20%), and 3924 yuan/ton at night, down 9 yuan (-0.23%) - DCE Soybean Meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton during the day session, down 6 yuan (-0.20%), and 3037 yuan/ton at night, down 9 yuan (-0.30%) - CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1048.25 cents/bushel, unchanged (+0.00%) - CBOT Soybean Meal 12 closed at 287.8 dollars/short ton, down 0.9 dollars (-0.31%) [2] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot basis was M2601 + 0/+30, unchanged - In East China, the price was 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with various basis levels and changes as described - In South China, the price was 2970 - 3030 yuan/ton, with different basis levels and changes [2] Group 4: Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.6 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On August 28, CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results, with the benchmark contract barely changing. US soybean export sales improved, but Chinese demand remained a limiting factor. As of August 21, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season decreased by 189,200 tons, while the net sales in the 2025/26 season were 1,372,600 tons, a new high for the new crop and higher than the previous week and market expectations [2][4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main contract futures prices on the reporting day [4]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 29 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：供应过剩明显 铸造铝合金：区间震荡 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 欧盟推动欧美协议落地，立法提案取消部分对美关税，推动汽车关税降至 15%。欧盟委员会提出两 项立法提案，将取消部分美国工业品关税，给予部分海产品和非敏感农产品优惠市场准入，并延长龙虾免关 税待遇。据上周公布的欧美贸易协定框架，只有在欧盟"正式提交所需立法"履行对美国商品减免关税的承 诺时，美方才会把汽车关税降至 15%。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20750 | 475 | -60 | 1 60 | -150 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are disturbed by market information, showing wide - range intraday fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron 2511 closed at 5624, down 10 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 208,650 and an open interest of 222,047. Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5604, down 2, with a trading volume of 33,111 and an open interest of 96,724 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2511 closed at 5828, up 10, with a trading volume of 66,101 and an open interest of 107,056. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5842, up 10, with a trading volume of 138,956 and an open interest of 312,315 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of silicon iron: FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of manganese ore: Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue charcoal: small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The silicon iron spot - 11 futures spread was - 274 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - 01 futures spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1]. - The silicon iron 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was 20 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The manganese silicon 2511 - silicon iron 2511 cross - variety spread was 204 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 cross - variety spread was 238 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 28, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - Kangmilaou announced the offer of Gabon block to China in October 2025 at 4.27 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month. Some long - term agreement enterprises reported a decrease in the quantity of Gabon block. The stable overseas price is positive for the long - term cost support of manganese ore [2]. - United Mining (CML) announced the offer to China in October 2025. The offer of Australian block (Mn＞46% Fe＜6% SiO2<18%) was 4.57 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [3]. - On the 27th, Ningbo Iron and Steel set the price of silicon manganese at 6030 yuan/ton (acceptance and tax included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

2025 年 08 月 29 日 甲醇：估值回归合理区间，短期进入震荡格局 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 甲醇基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 2,373 | 2,372 | 1 | | | | 结算价（元/吨） | 2,368 | 2,383 | -15 | | | | 成交量（手） | 461,214 | 482,265 | -21051 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量（手） | 785,833 | 754,731 | 31102 | | | | 仓单数量（吨） | 10,266 | 10,366 | -100 | | | | 成交额（万元） | 1,092,163 | 1,149,2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the current situation of lithium carbonate, indicating that inventory depletion is limited and the price is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, suggesting a relatively bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 78,140 yuan, down 900 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 12,780 lots, down 2,247 lots; and the open interest was 22,844 lots, down 6,370 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 78,140 yuan, down 720 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 805,585 lots, up 75,940 lots; and the open interest was 347,063 lots, down 4,259 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 28,957 lots, up 1,480 lots from T - 1. The basis of spot - 2509 was 1,860 yuan, down 700 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 1,860 yuan, down 880 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 889 dollars, down 31 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,915 yuan, down 55 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan, down 1,600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan, down 1,600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,205 yuan, down 385 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,100 yuan, down 300 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,942 yuan/ton, down 1,729 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate inventory this week was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons from last week, and the production this week was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from last week [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, while 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the raw material support weakens, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Short - fiber - **Futures Price**: Short - fiber 2509 was 6468 (down 24 from the previous day), short - fiber 2510 was 6572 (down 50), short - fiber 2511 was 6548 (down 46) [1] - **Spread**: PF09 - 10 was - 104 (up 26), PF10 - 11 was 24 (down 4), PF basis was 13 (up 50) [1] - **Position and Volume**: The short - fiber main contract's open interest was 133704 (down 26516), and the trading volume was 151482 (down 4290) [1] - **Spot and Sales**: The short - fiber spot price in East China was 6585 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the sales - to - production ratio was 37% (down 3%) [1] - **Market Situation**: TA and EG fluctuated and closed down. PF futures had a larger decline. Factory quotes remained stable, while traders offered discounts. The mainstream transaction price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang semi - bright 1.4D was 6500 - 6800 yuan/ton short - delivery, and that in Fujian was 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton short - delivery. The sales were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 44% as of 3:00 pm [2] Bottle - chip - **Futures Price**: Bottle - chip 2509 was 2836 (down 20 from the previous day), bottle - chip 2510 was 5984 (down 44), bottle - chip 2511 was 5994 (down 40) [1] - **Spread**: PR09 - 10 was - 148 (up 24), PR10 - 11 was - 10 (down 4), PR main contract basis was - 64 (up 14) [1] - **Position and Volume**: The bottle - chip main contract's open interest was 32095 (down 1830), and the trading volume was 83947 (up 7763) [1] - **Spot Price**: The bottle - chip spot price in East China was 5920 yuan/ton (down 30), and in South China was 5990 yuan/ton (down 30) [1] - **Market Situation**: Upstream polyester raw material futures declined. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly lowered by 20 - 60 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was weak, with orders from August to October mostly transacted at 5840 - 5930 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber was - 1, and that of bottle - chip was - 1, indicating a weak outlook for both on the reporting day's daytime main contract price fluctuations [3]