2025 年 12 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：USDA 报告平淡，盘面低位震荡 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 12 月 9 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中国需求担忧及南美大豆丰产，大豆跌至一个多月最低。北京德润林 2025 年 12 月 10 日消息：周二，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，因为市场仍担心中国对 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4089 | +5（+0.12%） 4092 | +6（+0.15%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2763 | -30（-1.07%） 2752 -19 | （-0.69%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1087.75 | -6.0（-0.55%） | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has fully priced in the supply pressure of US cotton, and the downward adjustment of global cotton production is a slight positive factor [2] - The overall price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, with some prices slightly adjusted, and the overall atmosphere is not good [2] - The spot trading of cotton is average, with some low - basis differentials having relatively good transactions [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.07% daily increase and 13750 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase; CY2603 closed at 19,945 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.18% daily increase and 19960 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.08% increase; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.87 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 303,883 lots, a decrease of 1,706 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,050,394 lots, an increase of 6,283. The trading volume of CY2603 was 7,169 lots, a decrease of 1,999 from the previous day, and the open interest was 17,370 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,749, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 3,321, an increase of 317. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 12, a decrease of 1, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 13 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,059 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is average, with some low - basis differentials having relatively good transactions. There are still some basis differentials being adjusted downward, but the amplitude is not large. Under the background of low inventory pressure, high - basis differential goods lack the motivation for significant price cuts, and the fixed - price quotes are relatively stable [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, with some counts having slight price adjustments and the overall atmosphere being not good. A few large spinning enterprises reduce prices to clear inventory for rotor - spun yarn, with the price of OEC32S being reduced by 200. Some spinning enterprises have new orders for low - count yarn, and a few spinning enterprises increase the prices of hot - selling low - count yarn products. Recently, the operating rates of spinning enterprises in the inland and Xinjiang have slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and the prices of conventional yarn products continue to be sluggish [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday. Although the USDA raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season again, the market has fully priced in the supply pressure of US cotton, while the downward adjustment of global cotton production (a 400,000 - bale, nearly 10% decrease in the production of West African cotton - producing countries) is a slight positive factor [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Oscillating downward [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Under pressure and moving downward [1] Core Views of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventory levels, and corporate profitability [1]. - "Shadow Fed Chair" Hassett believes the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points, and would adhere to his own judgment if appointed Fed Chair. He also stated that if inflation rises from 2.5% to 4%, rate cuts would not be possible [3]. - The US October JOLTS report shows that job openings rose to a five - month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs reached a more than two - year high. Economists think the labor market is slowing, and the Fed currently does not view it as a source of inflationary pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,775, down 500 from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,846, down 41. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends compared to previous periods [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,546, down 39 from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest also changed compared to previous periods [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,810, down 325 from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 591,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons from the previous day. Aluminum spot import and export profitability showed different trends [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,816, down 5 from the previous day. The alumina prices at Lianyungang and in Australia also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -347, down 5 from the previous day. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,000, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: -1 [78] - PTA: -1 [79] - MEG: 0 [80] - Iron Ore: -1 [54] - Rebar: 0 [56] - Hot Rolled Coil: 0 [56] - Ferrosilicon: 0 [60] - Manganese Silicon: 0 [60] - Coke: 0 [65] - Coking Coal: 0 [65] - Logs: 0 [70] - Rubber: 1 [82] - Synthetic Rubber: 0 [85] - Asphalt: -1 [90] - LLDPE: 0 [101] - PP: 0 [103] - Caustic Soda: 0 [105] - Pulp: 0 [110] - Glass: -1 [116] - Methanol: -1 [119] - Urea: 0 [124] - Styrene: -1 [127] - Soda Ash: -1 [130] - LPG: 0 [132] - Propylene: -1 [132] - PVC: 0 [140] - Fuel Oil: 0 [143] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 [143] - Container Shipping Index (European Route): 0 [145] - Short Fiber: -1 [158] - Bottle Chip: -1 [158] - Offset Printing Paper: 0 [161] - Pure Benzene: -1 [166] - Palm Oil: 0 [171] - Soybean Oil: 0 [171] - Soybean Meal: 0 [179] - Soybean: 0 [179] - Corn: 0 [182] - Sugar: -1 [186] - Cotton: 0 [191] - Eggs: 0 [195] - Hogs: 0 [197] - Peanuts: 0 [203] Core Views - Trump stated that immediate significant interest rate cuts would be a "litmus test" for selecting the new Fed chair and might adjust tariff policies to reduce the prices of some goods [7][8]. - For MEG, multiple plants' unplanned load reduction provides short-term support, but in the medium term, it faces a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9][80]. - Platinum and palladium's short - term and medium - term trends are different. In the short term, there is no basis for a sharp rise in platinum, while palladium shows better performance. In the medium term, the fundamental logic of a bullish outlook remains [12]. - In the short term, soybeans face many negative factors, but in the medium term, the downside space is limited, and the possibility of sideways oscillation is high [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. Silver has reached a new high, breaking through 60. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and the Fed's attention to employment indicators shows mixed signals [20]. Copper - The price is under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar. The production of the Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) in 2026 will be lower than in 2024, and China's copper ore imports have increased [24]. Zinc - Pressure is gradually emerging. The US and China are promoting economic cooperation, and the US has approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [27]. Lead - The domestic inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and there are signals about the Fed's interest rate cuts [30]. Tin - Supply has encountered new disturbances. There are various macro and industry news, including the recovery of the US "small non - farm" ADP [33]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum shows range - bound oscillation, alumina shows a downward oscillation trend, and cast aluminum alloy faces downward pressure. There is news about the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the adjustment of the labor market [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum has broken through the box range, and attention should be paid to the previous high. Palladium's bottom has been continuously rising. Trump has made statements about the Fed chair and tariff policies [39]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's structural surplus has changed, but the contradiction in the game remains. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. There are news about the Indonesian nickel mining industry and the suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian imports [43]. Energy and Chemicals Carbonate Lithium - Spot transactions are still weak, and the price shows a weak oscillation. The price of carbonate lithium has declined, and the sodium - ion battery industry is developing [48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The platform company for polysilicon has been established, and the market still focuses on buying on dips. The polysilicon powder quality improvement project of Tianhong Ruike has passed the acceptance [51]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The retail sales of the domestic passenger car market in November decreased year - on - year [54]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - The sector sentiment is weak, and the prices show low - level oscillation. The steel production, inventory, and demand data in November and December have changed [56]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon is affected by supply - side information disturbances and shows wide - range oscillation. Manganese silicon's overseas miners have firm quotations and also shows wide - range oscillation. There are price and procurement news in the ferrosilicon and manganese silicon markets [60]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both show wide - range oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in November has improved [65]. Logs - The price shows low - level oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in November has improved [70]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX is in a high - level oscillation market. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market with cost support. MEG has multiple plants reducing loads, with short - term support but a medium - term supply - demand imbalance [73]. Rubber - The price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. The domestic heavy - truck sales in November decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market in the fourth quarter is weak [82]. Synthetic Rubber - The price shows range - bound operation. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [85]. Asphalt - The price shows a weak oscillation. The domestic asphalt production has increased, the inventory in factories has increased, and the inventory in social warehouses has decreased [90]. LLDPE - The price shows a unilateral decline, and the basis has turned positive passively. The raw material price oscillates, and the supply and demand situation is complex [101]. PP - The upstream selling pressure is high, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak [103]. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak [105]. Pulp - The price shows oscillating operation. The domestic pulp market is dull, with high inventory and weak demand [110]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of float - glass shows local adjustments, with a slight relaxation in supply and weak rigid - demand orders [116]. Methanol - The price is under pressure. The spot price has declined, and the inventory in ports may accumulate in December [119]. Urea - The price shows oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to inventory indicators. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand has shown phased improvement [124]. Styrene - The price shows short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market shows weak reality and strong expectation, and the supply and demand of styrene are relatively balanced [127]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with an expected increase in supply and general demand [130]. LPG and Propylene - LPG's short - term demand is strong, but it is under pressure in the long term. Propylene's supply is expected to increase, and the upward driving force is limited. There are price and production - capacity news in the LPG and propylene markets [132]. PVC - The price shows a weakening trend. The domestic PVC market has high supply and inventory, and short - term short - chasing is not advisable [140]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has weakened again, and the center of the price has moved down. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [143]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The price shows an oscillating market. The spot freight rate shows some changes, and the 02 contract may face a complex price trend, while the 04 contract is suitable for short - selling on rallies [145]. Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both face medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies. The short - fiber and bottle - chip markets show price and sales changes [158]. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and observe. The price of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, with high industry operation levels and weak demand [161]. Pure Benzene - The price shows short - term oscillation. The inventory of pure benzene in ports has increased, and the market shows weak reality and strong expectation [166]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the reaction after the MPOB report's negative factors are exhausted. Soybean oil shows an oscillating trend due to insufficient soybean - driven factors. There are production and supply - demand news in the palm - oil and soybean - oil markets [171]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - The USDA report is dull, and the soybean - meal price shows a low - level oscillation. The soybean price shows a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean price has declined due to concerns about Chinese demand and the expected bumper harvest in South America [179]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price of corn in the spot market has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [182]. Sugar - The price shows a weakening trend. The sugar production in India and Brazil has increased, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [186]. Cotton - The price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The domestic cotton - spot trading is average, and the price of cotton yarn is stable [191]. Eggs - The spot price shows an oscillating trend. The futures price of eggs has decreased, and the spot price is stable [195]. Hogs - The market is trading the winter - solstice expectation in advance. The spot price of hogs shows some changes, and there is news about warehouse - receipt registration [197]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price shows a slight decline [203].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The structural surplus is changing, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthening [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading remains light, and it shows a weak and volatile trend [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the subsequent environmental protection situation in Xinjiang [2]. - Polysilicon: With the establishment of the platform company, the trading strategy for the market is mainly to buy on dips [2][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,350 yuan, down 680 yuan from the previous trading day; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 102,410 lots; that of stainless - steel's main contract was 127,287 lots. Other data on electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel products also showed different degrees of changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mine area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. The Indonesian government imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and new regulations on RKAB approval were issued [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 91,000 yuan, down 2,060 yuan; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 92,800 yuan, down 2,040 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also changed significantly. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92,649 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As the price of lithium carbonate soars, listed companies are accelerating the layout of sodium - ion batteries. Sodium batteries and lithium batteries are in a synergistic and complementary relationship [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,340 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan; the closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,610 yuan/ton, up 1,065 yuan. The trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon also showed different trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to the previous period [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "Research and Application Project on Key Technologies for Improving the Quality of Polysilicon Powder" of Shaanxi Non - ferrous Tianhong Ruike Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance, and the purity of its polysilicon powder products was successfully stabilized at the 7N level [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Pressure is gradually emerging [2][11]. - Lead: The increase in domestic inventories has pressured prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range; Alumina: It is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy: It is under downward pressure [2][20]. - Platinum: It has broken through the trading range, and close attention should be paid to the previous high [2][23]. - Palladium: The bottom is continuously rising [2][23]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, but the gaming contradictions remain unchanged; Stainless steel: The supply - demand situation continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic has been strengthened [2][27]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D showed an increase of 0.80%, while Comex Gold 2512 and London Gold Spot decreased by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T + D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot all showed increases, with Shanghai Silver 2512 rising by 1.94% and Comex Silver 2512 by 2.21%. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were different degrees of changes. ETF positions and inventories also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes [4][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold and silver both have a trend strength of 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2.02% and 1.76% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's copper ore imports increased in November [8][10]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper has a trend strength of 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 0.92%, while LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [11]. - **News**: China and the US should expand cooperation, and the US approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc has a trend strength of 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.98% and 0.52% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high [15]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead has a trend strength of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 0.40%, while LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including US employment data, Bank of Japan's stance, and international dialogues [18]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin has a trend strength of 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For aluminum, the closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME Aluminum 3M showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and inventory changes [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The "shadow Fed chairman" hinted at interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [22]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend strength of 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of platinum and palladium in different markets showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump mentioned tariff reduction and interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [26]. - **Trend Strength**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend strength of 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless steel's main contract showed changes, and there were also changes in various industry - related data such as prices, spreads, and profits [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a subsidy for Russian imports, and there were policy changes in Indonesia's mining industry. The Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of interest rate cuts [27][30]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend strength of 0 [31].

Report Date - The report is dated December 10, 2025 [1] Investment Ratings for Industries - No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. For example, gold shows a trend of rising due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar [2][5][9] Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: With rising interest - rate cut expectations, its trend strength is 1. The price of domestic and international gold futures and spot has different performances, and the market is affected by factors such as the US employment data and the attitude of the Bank of Japan [5][7] - **Silver**: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60. The trend strength is 1, and it is affected by macro - economic factors and market sentiment [2][5][7] - **Platinum**: It has broken through the box, and attention should be paid to the previous high. The trend strength is 1 [24][26] - **Palladium**: The bottom is continuously rising, and the trend strength is 1 [24][26] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rising US dollar puts pressure on its price. The trend strength is 0. The production of some mines is affected, and the import volume of China shows an increasing trend [9][11] - **Zinc**: Pressure is gradually emerging, and the trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US economic relations and the approval of chip sales [12][14] - **Lead**: The increase in domestic inventory puts pressure on the price. The trend strength is 0, and it is affected by the US employment data and interest - rate cut expectations [15][16] - **Tin**: Supply is disturbed again, and the trend strength is 0. It is affected by macro - economic news and market sentiment [18][20] - **Aluminum**: It shows a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as production data and industry news [21][23] - **Nickel**: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as Indonesian mining policies and supply - demand relationships [28][32] - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. The trend strength is 0 [28][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related Products**: - **Fuel Oil**: It has weakened again, and the center of the disk continues to move down. The trend strength is 0 [135] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [135] - **Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: It is under pressure to operate. The trend strength is - 1. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [111][115] - **Urea**: It shows an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to inventory indicators during the day. The trend strength is 0 [116][118] - **PVC**: The trend is weak. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as supply, inventory, and cost [132][133] - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but it is still under pressure in the medium - to long - term. The trend strength is 0 [124][128] - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of increased supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is - 1 [124][128] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Attention should be paid to the reaction after the MPOB report's negative factors are exhausted. The trend strength is 0 [163][170] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and it shows an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0 [163][170] - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is mediocre, and the disk shows a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [171][173] - **Soybean**: It shows a rebound and oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [171][173] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend strength is 0 [174][177] - **Sugar**: It shows a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1 [178][181] - **Cotton**: It shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The trend strength is 0 [183][186] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Eggs**: The spot shows an oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [187] - **Pigs**: The market is trading the winter solstice expectation in advance. The trend strength is 0 [189][193] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [195][197] Others - **Lumber**: It shows a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [56][59] - **Paper Pulp**: It shows an oscillating operation. The trend strength is 0 [100][102] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1 [107][109] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It shows a range - bound operation. The trend strength is 0 [74][76] - **Rubber**: It shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. The trend strength is 1 [71] - **Asphalt**: It shows a weak oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [78][87] - **LLDPE**: It shows a unilateral decline, and the basis is passively positive. The trend strength is 0 [91][92] - **PP**: There is selling pressure from the upstream, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The trend strength is 0 [93][94] - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The trend strength is 0 [95][98] - **PTA**: It is supported by cost, and the 5 - 9 spread is in a positive carry. The trend strength is - 1 [2][66][68] - **MEG**: Multiple sets of devices have reduced their loads, and the downside space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][66][69] - **PX**: The demand is seasonally weak, the supply is still tight, and it shows a high - level oscillating market. The trend strength is - 1 [2][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It shows a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [119] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is - 1 [122] - **Short - Fiber**: There is pressure in the medium - term, and it is advisable to short the processing margin when the price is high. The trend strength is - 1 [150][151] - **Bottle - Chip**: There is pressure in the medium - term, and it is advisable to short the processing margin when the price is high. The trend strength is - 1 [150][151] - **Gummed Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend strength is 0 [153] - **Pure Benzene**: It shows a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [158][161] - **Shipping Index (European Route)**: It shows an oscillating market. The trend strength is 0 [137][147][149]

2025年12月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：供应端信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1） 财联社 12 月 8 日电，乘联分会数据显示，11 月全国乘用车市场零售 224.4 万辆，同比下降 8.5%。前 11 个月，全国乘用车市场零售 2175 万辆，同比上涨 6.3%。(来自财联社 APP) 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 10 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on platinum and palladium, with the view that platinum has broken through the box and attention should be paid to the previous high, while palladium's bottom has been continuously rising [1] Group 2: Price and Trading Data - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 436.40 with a -1.53% change, and the gold exchange platinum closed at 431.08 with a -0.97% change; New York platinum continuous contract closed at 1708.10 with a 2.77% change, and London spot platinum closed at 1688.90 with a 2.27% change [1] - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 380.45 with a -0.85% change, and the RMB spot palladium closed at 362.00 with a 0.00% change; New York palladium continuous contract closed at 1549.50 with a 2.11% change, and London spot palladium closed at 1507.00 with a 2.17% change [1] - Guangdong platinum trading volume was 10,460 with a 419 change compared to the previous day, and the position was 12,842 with a -23 change; NYMEX platinum trading volume was 25,961 with a 1,306 change, and the position was 60,237 with a -1,616 change [1] - Guangdong palladium trading volume was 5,981 with a 920 change, and the position was 3,585 with an 18 change; NYMEX palladium trading volume was 4,922 with a 1,316 change, and the position was 19,393 with a 101 change [1] Group 3: ETF and Inventory Data - Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,123,983 with a -478 change; Palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,095,164 with a 1,232 change [1] - Guangdong platinum inventory (kilograms) was 1 with no change; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 614,713 with no change; Guangdong palladium inventory (kilograms) had no data, and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 176,705 with no change [1] Group 4: Spread Data - The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -5.32, a 2.58 change from the previous day; the spread between Guangdong platinum 2606 contract and 2610 contract was -1.45, a -1.00 change; the cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 5.44, a -0.08 change [1] - The spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 47.22, a -12.64 change; the spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -18.45, a 3.25 change; the spread between Guangdong palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was -2.90, a -0.05 change; the cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 4.78, a -0.04 change; the spread between the RMB spot palladium and London palladium was 19, a -7.18 change [1] Group 5: Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 99.11 with a 0.12% change; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07 with a -0.03% change; the US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.07 with a 0.01% change; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.98 with a 0.00% change [1] Group 6: Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity is 1, and palladium trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] Group 7: Macro and Industry News - Trump may lower tariffs on some over - priced goods and said that an immediate interest rate cut is a "touchstone" for choosing a new Fed chairman; Trump started the last round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, with Hassett leading, and officials proposed the possibility of shortening Hassett's tenure; Hassett said the Fed has enough room for significant rate cuts and will make interest rate decisions based on his judgment [4] - US job openings in October rose to the highest level in five months, but recruitment remained sluggish; the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia continued, with 7 dead and 20 injured in Cambodia and 4 dead and 68 casualties in Thailand [4] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expected the interest rate cut cycle to end; Zelensky refused to "cede territory", will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th, and for the first time hinted at being willing to hold elections. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision; British media reported that Trump is "pressuring" Zelensky to respond to the peace proposal within a few days, hoping to reach an agreement before Christmas [4] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development respectively [4]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17170 | -0.98% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1998.5 | -0.52% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 35748 | -2313 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5499 | -1147 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 40620 | -2487 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 167108 | -6265 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 25 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -51.57 | -2.42 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -55 | 0 | 进口 ...