请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注中美磋商结果 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，底部较有支撑 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注政策落地信息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,150 | 770 | 990 | -30 | 700 | -2,210 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,810 | 45 | 180 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 所 长 首 推 期货研究 2025-10-27 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 人民日报钟声：共同维护好来之不易的中美经贸磋商成果 观点分享： | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | ★★★★ | | 纯苯：绝对估值偏低，但是基本面驱动仍然向下，短期谨慎抄底。目前纯苯仍然面临三重压 | | | 力，下游需求偏弱、采购意愿不佳、供应逐步回归区域套利打开。纯苯近期下跌过程中，下 | | | 游利润继续被挤压，终端需求整体疲软，下游固体库存快速累积，四季度需求短期暂时没有 | | | 看到起色，关注后续中美贸易战缓和对于实际订单的边际增量。在终端需求偏弱的背景之下， | | | 下游进一步采购的意愿不佳，并且目前下游原料库存处于中性水平，维持在刚需水平之上， | | | 短期囤货意愿难有起色。11 月之后纯苯的检修逐步回归，并且目前山东市场价格跌破 5200 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 元/吨，整体偏弱，区域套利货源持续向华东转移，物流窗口打开。整体来看，虽然纯苯绝对 估值 ...

2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 771.0 | -6.0 | -0.77% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 565. 642 | 4. 501 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨 ...

2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：反弹震荡，等待中美经贸会谈指引 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：现货短期存在支撑 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 27 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,122 | -0.11% | ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 41 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,137.8 | 0.10% | 817 | 4,292 | -526 | 0.19 | | 0.19 | | | EC2512 | 1,831.0 | 3.14% | 35,117 | 30,249 | 1,335 | 1.16 | | 0.76 | | | EC2602 | 1,601.0 | 1.77% | 3,971 | 11,509 | 971 | 0.35 | | 0.25 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 651. ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 27 日 股指期货：风偏积极，偏强运行 ● 趋势策略。逢低做多。预计 IF 主力合约 IF2511 核心运行区间 4509 和 4741 点；IH 主力合约 IH2511 核心运行区间 2972 和 3109 点；IC 主力合约 IC2511 核心运行区间 6995 和 7464 点；IM 主力合 约 IM2511 核心运行区间 7111 和 7590 点。 ● 跨品种策略。空 IF（或 IH）多 IC(或 IM)的策略持有。 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场上涨，沪指突破 3950 点，创近十年新高，逼近 4000 点大关。通 信、电子、电力设备涨幅居前；农林牧渔、食品饮料、美容护理跌幅居前。四中全会闭幕，政策靴子落 地，不确定性降低。未来五年方向明确，规划重提"坚持以经济建设为中心"。虽然外部环境恶化，不利 扰动增多，但依然重申暗含 GDP 增速要求的"2035 远景目标"，或预示稳增长仍将持续贯穿"十五五"时 期。整体上"四中全会"为市场吃了定心丸。除了经济总量稳定抬升以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing while the demand is weak, which restricts the price increase. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 17,200 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The processing fee of lead concentrate remains weak [3][5][7]. - The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased. The start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The spot end's role in pushing up the price has weakened. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 17,595 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.05%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,575 yuan, with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The LME lead cash - forward spread changed from - 41.85 to - 36.64, with a change of 5.21. The premium of lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 112.5. The spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead changed from - 25 to - 10, with a change of 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 75, with a change of - 25 [8]. - **Inventory**: From October 16th to October 23rd, the domestic lead inventory decreased from 37,700 tons to 31,900 tons, still at a relatively low level for the same period in history. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,034 tons to 23,048 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 31,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons [7][8]. - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 79,514 lots, an increase of 39,872 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 83,846 lots, an increase of 43,628 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LME S - lead 3 was 4,991 lots, a decrease of 997 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate continues to be weak. The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate decreased to - 125 US dollars/ton this week. The import lead concentrate processing fee decreased from - 110 to - 125 US dollars/ton, and the import lead concentrate smelting profit decreased by 152 yuan/ton to - 1,850 yuan/ton. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead concentrate smelting profit remained at - 2,800 yuan/ton [5][7][8]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Some secondary lead enterprises in some regions are under maintenance due to environmental protection control, but the profit of primary lead has increased, and the supply of waste batteries is abundant. Secondary lead enterprises in Anhui have resumed production more [7]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: Consumption is gradually entering the off - season. The enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased, the start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in previous years is shown in the data, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are also provided [7][46]. - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead in previous years is shown in the data, along with the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles [48].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.34%，本周增幅环比收窄0.03个百分点。行业开工整体回升，但市场需 求暂无好转，下游出版印刷的订单增量有限，经销商主动补库意向薄弱，纸厂延续累库趋势。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.24%，环比上升2.63个百分点，本周趋势由降转升。虽然北方仍有部分中小产线停机 或转产，但上周复产的规模产线恢复至正常开工水平，带动本周行业开工整体回升。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Short - term upward drivers are weakening, and macro risks still exist. The supply of domestic LPG has decreased, and the demand for civil use is recovering. The PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased. The prices in East and South China have declined, while Shandong's prices have rebounded after a fall. It is recommended to closely monitor macro - factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply has slightly decreased this week, and the demand from downstream industries remains weak. Although the supply and demand are expected to increase next week, the pattern of loose supply and demand will not change. It is recommended to pay attention to PDH device shutdown dynamics and the propylene - powder price difference [7]. 3. Section Summaries LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic spot prices: Shandong's civil gas prices have rebounded, while prices in other regions such as East and South China have declined. Imported gas prices and FEI, CP have first fallen and then risen, with a significant increase in FEI [10]. - Regional quotations, discounts, and freight: The freight from the Middle East to the Far East has continued to decline, and the freight from the United States to the Far East has stopped falling. The FEI discount has improved [24]. - Propane prices: They have rebounded from a low level [37]. - **Supply** - International shipping: The arrival of international ships in China has decreased compared to last week, mainly in South China, due to sea gales [3]. - Domestic production: The total commercial volume of LPG is 537,000 tons, a 2.4% decrease from last week. The propane commercial volume has decreased due to less - than - expected ship arrivals [60][70]. - Shipment volume: The shipment volumes of the United States, Canada, and the Middle East have changed to varying degrees, with overall decreases in some regions [47][48][49]. - **Demand & Inventory** - Chemical demand: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have increased [74]. - Domestic refinery inventory: The inventory of civil gas is at a relatively high level year - on - year, with limited changes this week [84]. - Port inventory: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, mainly with destocking on a month - on - month basis [89]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Upstream prices: Brent, WTI, and other upstream prices have increased, while some prices such as NAP in Shandong have decreased [100]. - Propylene prices: International/US - dollar prices have slightly corrected from a high level, and domestic prices have stopped falling and stabilized [103][111]. - Mid/upstream and downstream profits: Profits in various sectors have changed, with significant decreases in some sectors such as PDH [100][102]. - **Balance Sheet** - Operating rates: The operating rates of PDH and some downstream industries have increased, while the operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries have decreased [120]. - Supply and demand balance: The supply and demand of propylene are relatively loose, with expected increases in both supply and demand next week, but the loose pattern will not change [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin Industry Investment Ratings - Short Fiber (PF): Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish [3] - Bottle Chip (PR): Range - bound with a downward bias [2] Core Views - **Short Fiber**: Cost support is weak, and the market is range - bound. Although upstream oil issues have pushed up crude oil prices, the supply of naphtha remains in excess. The improvement in domestic demand needs to be verified, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: Cost support is weak, and the market is range - bound. In the fourth quarter, factory operations are expected to remain around 80%. Demand from October to November is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation in the near term [9]. Summary by Section Short Fiber (PF) - **Supply**: Short - fiber factory operations are maintained, with an average operating rate of 94.3%. Spinning - grade direct - spun polyester staple fiber operations are maintained at 94.5%. In the future, operations are expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95%. Recently, downstream procurement has been relatively active, and factories may have the incentive to slightly increase operations [8]. - **Demand**: There has been a significant amount of positive - feedback restocking in the market, and short - fiber inventories have continued to decline. After the comprehensive cooling, the downstream market has improved, and the terminal has placed additional orders. Both woven grey fabrics and yarns have reduced their inventories, alleviating pressure, and profits have also improved. However, after a round of positive - feedback restocking following the increase in raw material prices, the terminal sentiment has gradually cooled off around the weekend, and the sustainability of the peak season still needs to be observed. The current situation of foreign trade is still not good [8]. - **Valuation**: The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuations of the margin and the inter - month spread are basically reasonable, while the basis is relatively high [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold the 01 - 02 calendar spread long position; go long PF and short PR in the 2601 contract [8]. Bottle Chip (PR) - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, factory operations are expected to remain around 80%. This week, operations have slightly increased to 82%. On the one hand, processing margins have recovered, and on the other hand, it is the off - season for demand. In the future, operations are expected to remain at around 80%, with no strong motivation for significant production cuts or increases. Fuhai is expected to start production in November, increasing the actual supply [9]. - **Demand**: Low - price procurement has still shown significant volume, including purchases by large enterprises and speculative demand. Bottle - chip factory inventories have remained at around 17 days. From October to November, demand is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter. The operations of beverage factories have decreased to around 60% - 70%, and the operations of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. Sea freight rates have declined, and the export volume in subsequent months is generally in line with the seasonality of domestic demand. The export volume from October to November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 550,000 tons. The United States has removed bottle chips from the exemption list, and attention should be paid to the impact of export replacement in subsequent months [9]. - **Valuation**: The current spot processing margin is 500 - 550 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The processing margins of the November and December futures contracts are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also relatively high but may be difficult to compress due to the weak cost [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold the calendar spread long position; go long TA and short PR in the December contract (enter when the processing margin is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton); go long PF and short PR in the 01 contract [9]. Cost and Profit - **Bottle Chip**: Aggregate costs have risen to around 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. Bottle - chip processing margins have been passively compressed, with the spot processing margin around 480 - 550 yuan/ton. The export profit, calculated based on the domestic aggregate cost, is approximately 800 - 850 yuan/ton, indicating a relatively high level of export profit [45]. Inventory - **Bottle Chip**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased. Domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventories have decreased to around 17 days. From October to November, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. According to CCF data, the preliminary estimate of social inventory in September was 2.77 million tons, the estimate for October is 3 million tons, and the estimate for November is 3.24 million tons [50][55]. - **Short Fiber**: There has been positive - feedback restocking in the market, and short - fiber inventories have continued to decline. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3.4 days, and the physical inventory is 15 days (a decrease of 0.8 days compared to the previous period) [8]. Device Changes - **Bottle Chip**: Sanfangxiang has slightly increased its operations. A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device at Huarun's Jiangyin factory has been shut down. The 750,000 - ton device in Yisheng Hainan and the 350,000 - ton device in Yisheng Dalian remain shut down. Fuhai's new 300,000 - ton device is expected to start production in November [56]. Demand - **Bottle Chip**: The operations of beverage enterprises have gradually declined to 50% - 75%. In the sheet material sector, operations in East China are at 50% - 70%, and operations in South China are at 40% - 60%. The average operations of edible oil enterprises are around 50% - 70% [60][61]. - **Short Fiber**: After the comprehensive cooling, the downstream market has improved, and the terminal has placed additional orders. Both woven grey fabrics and yarns have reduced their inventories, alleviating pressure, and profits have also improved. However, the sustainability of the peak season still needs to be observed. The current situation of foreign trade is still not good [8]. Export - **Bottle Chip**: In September 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 593,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. Among them, the export volume under tariff code 39076910 was 125,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.3%, and the export volume under tariff code 39076110 was 468,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [86].