Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to reach a new high, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are likely to be strong due to the decline of the US dollar. Zinc and tin are expected to trade in a high - level range. Lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Aluminum is expected to perform strongly, with an increase in alumina maintenance. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and palladium is expected to rise slowly. The situation of nickel in Indonesia remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices are supported by the rise of ferronickel due to concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, Comex gold 2602 rose 2.11% to 4938.40, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell 0.49% to 1083.56. For silver, Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51% to 96.215, and Shanghai silver 2602 rose 0.82% to 23370. Gold ETF holdings increased by 2 to 1079.66. Shanghai gold inventory increased by 2019 to 102009 kg, and Comex gold inventory (previous day) increased by 6979 to 36142880 troy ounces. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 11727 to 589052 kg, and Comex silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 4162840 to 422313658 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump downplayed the risk of dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to the lowest level since May 2014. The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise 3% and spot gold to rise over 2%. The US government shutdown is approaching [4][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai copper's main contract closed at 102600, up 0.71%, and the night - session price dropped 1.01% to 101560. London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13024, down 1.21%. Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 406 to 144908, and London copper inventory increased by 1825 to 172350 [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating TC/RC for 2026. A Chilean copper mine was fined, and a copper - gold mine in northern Chile stopped production. Road blockades at some mines in Chile were lifted [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai zinc's main contract closed at 24950, up 0.91%. London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3351, up 2.51%. Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 624 to 28312 tons, and London zinc inventory decreased by 775 to 110550 tons [14]. - **News**: The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in January, and there is uncertainty about future rate cuts [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai lead's main contract closed at 17000, down 0.41%. London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2036, up 0.05%. LME lead inventory decreased by 2425 to 211175 tons [17]. - **News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai tin's main contract closed at 451160, up 6.07%, and the night - session price dropped 3.26% to 436450. London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54865, up 0.68%. Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71 to 8553 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since 2014. The Japanese finance minister said that they will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions on exchange - rate fluctuations if necessary [21][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24305, up 90. LME aluminum 3M closed at 3213, up 17. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 79.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The average domestic alumina price was 2649, down 4 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: UBS said that rising metal and memory prices will erode the profits of electric vehicle enterprises. The US government shutdown is approaching [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he is not worried about dollar depreciation. The "Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path of resuming rate cuts is unclear. Trump said the US has sent a large naval fleet towards Iran. The Hungarian central bank governor said Hungary may consider increasing the proportion of gold in central bank reserves [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai nickel's main contract closed at 146110, up 730. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14540, down 105 [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target and benchmark price formula. Some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation [33][34][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-28 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-28 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高 观点分享： 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高。昨天市场的波动基本上都被美伊冲突升级 的可能性所带动，美国在中东加强军事部署，和据相关人士爆料美国可能对伊朗动武的消息 极大的增加了市场的担忧。加之美国消费者信心指数创近年来新低、特朗普表示不担心美元 下跌、同时同时市场开始加注周三(今日晚间)公布的联储利率决议暂停降息等诸多因素的影 响，美元出现大幅下滑。受此影响，贵金属也因此保持了强势，黄金价格再创历史新高；离 岸人民币三年来也首次涨破 6.94。日元三连涨，欧元和英镑也创下三年来新高。正在股市方 面，市场表现的仍然较为强势。在美股科技公司财报公布之际，市场对盈利预期较为乐观。 标普创下历史新高；欧洲方面主要国家股市也都基本保持了上涨的趋势。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 生猪 | ★★★★ | 生猪：旺季预期落空，近端供应压力显现。近期生猪现货市场表现出两个异常 ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：油粕比交易思路维持 | 2 | | 豆粕：美元偏弱、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260128 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前旺季现货偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，关注供应矛盾 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 01 月 28 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：油粕比交易思路维持 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,238 | 涨跌幅 1.61% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,218 | 涨跌幅 -0.22% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 28 日 原木：区间震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 项 目 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/22 | 2026/1/21 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 775.5 | 776 | 776 | 768.5 | 764 | -0.1% | 1.5% | 2603合约（成交量） | 3684 | 5068 | 9430 | 4760 | 8422 | -27.3% | -56% | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 10340 | 10481 | 11610 | 14921 | 15791 | -1.3% | -35% | 2 ...

☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第17期) 发布日期:2026-01-29 关税潜忧仍在,EUA高位回落 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格86.4欧元/吨(-1.27%)，投标覆盖比1.48; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价87.13欧元/吨(-1.44%),成交3.70万手(0.93)。 信号强度:1(0为空仓,立1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 利多:暂无新增。 核心 利空:暂无新增。 逻辑 其他:(1欧洲议会下周将重新审议欧盟-美国贸易协议:(2欧洲同意大幅提升北海涡轮 机部署,目标为到2050年达到100吉瓦。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 EUA拍卖量 CBAM证书价格 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-01-26 23436 271. 25 86. 40 89. 54 1.48 2026-01 ...

2026 年 1 月 28 日 原油：多单持有，Brent 或挑战 70 美元 商 品 研 究 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 3 月原油期货收涨 1.76 美元，涨幅 2.90%，报 62.39 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 03 合 约收涨 1.98 美元，涨幅 3.02%，报 67.57 美元/桶;SC2603 原油期货收涨 6.90 美元，涨幅 1.54%， 报 456.00 元/桶。 1、 墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品 | 1 月 26 日价差 | 状态 | 简要分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | (美元/桶) | | | | Arab Extra | -3.34 | 关闭 | 价差为负，进口不经济。 | | Light | | | | | Arab | -4.71 | 关闭 | 价差更深，缺乏竞争力。 | | Light | | | | | Nemba | -5.5 | 关闭 | 安哥拉原油套利窗口关闭。 | | Arab | | 关闭 | 重质油对 Mars 的价差也为负 ...

2026 年 1 月 27 日 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期 货 品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 震荡整理 | 4756 和 | | 4778 点 | | 4709 和 | 4690 点 | | | 股指 | IH2603 | 震荡整理 | 3085 和 | | 3100 点 | | 3038 和 | 3029 点 | ...

2026 年 1 月 27 日 与时舒卷——2026 年货币政策展望 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao2@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 1. 中国人民银行的"三目标制"货币政策分析框架。从具体的操作工具来看，当前人民银行在 "量"的投放方面主要运用两类工具，分别是由质押贷款类、央行资产购买类和回笼类长期主动投放工 具，正逆回购、SLF、国库定存等短期主动投放工具，和外汇占款及财政存款（抵扣）等被动投放工具构 成的主要基础货币投放工具，以及通过改变货币乘数来影响基础货币需求的降准工具。通过配合实施这两 类操作工具进行"量"的投放从而影响对 7 天逆回购利率这一政策利率的价格调控，并间接传导至 MLF 利 率、LPR 利率和 M2 增速，最终实现上述三项长期货币政策目标。 2. 房地产市场调整叠加化债，信用融资需求内生性收缩。纵观全球主要经济体，在货币宽松与房地 产市场之间往往存在周期性循环，经济面临严重问题的阶段通过大幅宽松能够在短期内迅速刺激起地产泡 沫，泡沫刺破后的阵痛期又再次开启宽松周期意图稳 ...

资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 2026 年 1 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 145,380 | -2,630 | 3,060 | 1,180 | 19,970 | 23,230 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,645 | -80 | 340 | 790 | 1,655 | 1,835 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 718,003 | -34,837 | -231,369 | -365,199 | 67,199 | 572,800 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 555,399 | ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 27 日 对二甲苯：供应回升，单边偏强，月差反套 PTA：单边趋势偏强 MEG：趋势仍偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7630 | 5438 | 3994 | 6826 | 457.3 | | 涨跌 | 4 | -10 | -3 | 44 | 15.4 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.05% | -0.18% | -0.08% | 0.65% | 3.48% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 62 | 30 | -97 | -50 | -4.3 | | 前日收盘价 | 44 | 40 | -83 | -50 | -0.2 | | 涨跌 | 18 | -10 | -14 | 0 | -4.1 | | ...