【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16585 | 0.45% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1965.5 | 0.59% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 49645 | -775 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5987 | -1177 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 50305 | -1722 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 176330 | -578 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -43.55 | 6.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | -20 | 进口升贴水（美 | 87.5 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -97.18 | -44.26 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 ...

2026年02月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：再生亏损，关注下方支撑 | 8 | | 锡：技术性修复 | 9 | | 铝：节前轻仓 | 10 | | 氧化铝：底部反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：震荡整理 | 12 | | 钯：箱体震荡 | 12 | | 镍：节前资金离场冲击，中线矛盾仍在印尼 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 10 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | - ...

2026年02月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：节前资金离场冲击，中线矛盾仍在印尼 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需格局偏紧，下方空间不深 | 4 | | 工业硅：库存累库，关注仓单情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货节后成交 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 134,520 | 2,680 | 4,870 | -10,860 | -1,920 | 15,080 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,735 | 65 | 315 | -910 | 60 | 1,170 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 417,105 | -137 ...

2026 年 02 月 10 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260210 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260210 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | ୧୧୮୧ | 6498 | 28 | PF03-04 | -80 | -80 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6606 | 6578 | 28 | PF04-05 | ব | 12 | -8 | | | 短纤2605 | 6602 | 6566 | 36 | PF主力基差 | -61 | -48 | -13 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 175302 | 107824 | 67478 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 545 | 6.530 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 157886 昨日 | 78904 前日 | 78982 变化 | 短纤产销率 | 38% 昨日 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the market for offset printing paper is in a pre - holiday wait - and - see state, with prices generally stable and weak demand. The trend strength of double - offset paper is neutral [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong market, prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, 70g Huaxia Taiyang, and 70g Benbai Mudan remained unchanged at 4475, 4675, 4725, and 4450 yuan/ton respectively compared to February 6th. In the Guangdong market, 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunbao, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang also had no price changes, at 4400, 4600, and 4700 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The pre - tax and after - tax costs and profits remained unchanged. The pre - tax cost was 5165 yuan/ton, the pre - tax profit was - 440 yuan/ton, the after - tax cost was 4743 yuan/ton, and the after - tax profit was - 562 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: The closing prices of OP2603.SHF and OP2604.SHF increased by 28 and 24 respectively compared to February 6th, and the 3 - 4 spread increased by 4 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased by 28 [1]. Trend Strength The trend strength of double - offset paper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1]. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - brightness double - offset paper in the Shandong market is 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton, and some natural - white double - offset paper is priced at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton. The prices are stable compared to the previous day. Large - scale paper mills are operating stably, some small and medium - sized paper mills have shut down, and dealers' order - receiving is poor. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market is gradually on holiday [2]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - brightness double - offset paper in the Guangdong market is 4600 - 4700 yuan/ton, and the natural - white double - offset paper is 4400 yuan/ton. The prices are unchanged from the previous day. Paper companies' shipments are average, small and medium - sized printing factories are shutting down one after another, and the demand for base paper is weak [4].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 10 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260210 | | | 昨日纸浆期货市场午后临近收盘快速下跌，对市场情绪有一定的打压。现货市场走势同样清淡，实际交投 十分有限，业者普遍持观望态度。市场结构呈现分化，主要以期现商出货为主，而下游纸厂因春节假期临近， 入市采购已接近停滞。当前供需基本面未提供新的消息指引，市场缺乏打破僵局的驱动因素，建议关注纸浆市 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 200 | 5, 234 | -34 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 180 | 5, 216 | -36 | | | | 成交量(手) | 185. 219 | 204. 913 | -19. 694 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 300. 912 | 287. 362 | +13, 550 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 146, 447 | 146. 447 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The demand expectation for iron ore is weakening, and the price is fluctuating downward [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.13%). The yesterday's position was 513,384 hands, with a decrease of 1,361 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: Imported ores like Carajás fines (65%) rose 6.0 yuan/ton to 864.0 yuan/ton, PB (61.5%) up 2.0 yuan/ton to 767.0 yuan/ton. Some domestic ores like Hanxing (66%) dropped 17.0 yuan/ton to 933.0 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special (56.5%) increased 1.2 yuan/ton to 95.0 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 rose 0.5 yuan/ton to 18.5 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [1] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled enterprises need to report financial indicators regularly [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a bearish view [2]

尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 玉米基本面数据 | | 东北收购均价 | | 昨日价格 | | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元/吨 | n a | | | | | 重要现货 | 锦州平仓 | 元/吨 | 2,340 | | 5 | | | 价 格 | 华北收购均价 | 元/吨 | n a | | 0 | | | | 广东蛇口 | 元/吨 | 2,420 | | 1 0 | | | | 山东玉米淀粉价格 元/吨 | | 2,770 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌% | | | C2603 | 元/吨 | 2,265 | -0.18 | 2,268 | 0.13 | | | C2605 | 元/吨 | 2,274 | -0.13 | 2,275 | 0.04 | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | C2603 | 手 | 31 ...

2026 年 02 月 10 日 白糖：关注低基差机会 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.33 | 0.22 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 46 | 31 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5310 | 10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -13 | -2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5261 | 33 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 49 | -23 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 期 货 研 究 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：截至 1 月 31 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 17%。巴西 1 月出口 202 万吨，同比减 少 2 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,580 | 0.00% | 14630 | 0.34% | | | CY2605 | 元/吨 | 20,360 | -0.22% | 20395 | 0.17% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 61.58 | 0.84% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 334,671 | -21,848 | 1,046,048 | 9,162 | | | CY2605 | 手 | 6,709 | -1,999 | 11,525 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 10,580 | 5 | 1,168 | -17 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | ...