Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Overall, most commodities are expected to show neutral or weak trends, with some having specific trading strategies such as spreads trading and long - short combinations [2][9][10]. Summaries by Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. Hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads. PTA plant out - of - plan maintenance will lead to weaker PX demand [2][9]. - **PTA**: Spot supply is sufficient, and the basis weakens. Go long on spreads at low levels, and the unilateral trend is weak. The current supply - demand is weak, and the unilateral price is driven downward [2][9]. - **MEG**: Coal prices support the price. Go long on spreads at low levels, and long MEG short PTA. Unilateral price is oscillating strongly. Overseas device maintenance may reduce imports in September [2][10]. Synthetic Rubber - Short - term oscillating. The departure of speculative funds and the weakening of the commodity index have led to a decline. In the medium - term, it is supported by anti - involution policies and has a neutral fundamental situation [11][13]. Asphalt - Consolidating after a decline. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. The short - term trend is neutral [15][30]. LLDPE - The trend is under pressure. The anti - involution policy has little impact. Supply pressure increases in the third quarter, although there may be a phased relief in September. Demand support is weak [31][32]. PP - Spot prices rose in some areas, but trading was light. The short - term trend is neutral, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment [35][36]. Caustic Soda - Treat the peak - season contracts bullishly. Currently in the off - season, the price increase is limited, but the cost is supported. In the long - term, the peak - season demand is expected [38][40]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Domestic float glass prices decreased slightly, affected by weather and inventory. The short - term trend is neutral [41][42]. Methanol - Oscillating under pressure. The short - term is affected by the departure of speculative funds, and the medium - term is affected by anti - involution policies and port unloading conditions [44][48]. Urea - Bullish factors are less than expected, and it returns to an oscillating pattern. The daily output increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term is affected by export information, and the medium - term is oscillating [49][51]. Styrene - Compress the profit and pay attention to taking profits. It is in a high - output, high - profit, and high - inventory pattern, and is mainly a short - allocation. Focus on compressing the profit position [52][53]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid. The short - term market is expected to be stable [55][56]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Cost support is weak. - **Propylene**: Short - term weak oscillation. The PDH and MTBE operating rates decreased, and the alkylation operating rate increased [58][59]. PVC - Range - bound oscillation. The anti - involution policy has little impact. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [71][72]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session strengthened slightly, and the short - term is oscillating. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak in the short - term compared to high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [75]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in the 2510 contract and add short positions at high prices. The shipping company's freight rates are expected to decline, and the market FAK freight rate center may be between 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU at the end of August [77][86].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Anti-Involution Policy Disturbs Prices, Fundamentals Determine Direction - Henan Region Lead-Zinc Research Report" [1] - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [2] Group 2: Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy indirectly boosts zinc prices by stimulating the sentiment of the black commodities market. However, most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and await specific follow-up measures [3][6] - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Supply pressure is increasing, and the surplus logic may become more apparent [3][9] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters [3][12] - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, but the upcoming peak consumption season may support demand. Lead smelters rely on by-products to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [3][14] Group 3: Impact of "Anti-Involution" Policy on Zinc - The "anti-involution" policy aims to clear out backward and ineffective production capacity, but it has no substantial impact on the zinc industry's fundamentals. In the short term, it indirectly boosts zinc prices by supporting steel prices and stimulating the restocking willingness of galvanizing enterprises [6] - Most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and have no extensive production plans [3][6] Group 4: Zinc Industry Chain Analysis - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Since the third quarter of last year, TC processing fees have rebounded from a low level, and the restart of high-cost mines has led to an increase in zinc concentrate supply [3][9] - Refineries and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a medium level in history. After the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in the first half of the year, the resumption of production and new project launches have increased supply pressure [3][9] - The surplus logic may become more apparent and be reflected in the accumulation of social inventories [3][9] Group 5: Zinc Smelter Profit Analysis - Zinc smelter profits are mainly calculated through processing costs, the 20/80 split, and by-product comprehensive returns. Different smelters have significant cost differences due to different raw material supply methods [11] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters. Sulfuric acid prices have been high, and small metal prices have been strong [3][12] - Many smelters are considering building new recycling production lines to increase the recycling and utilization of small metals [12] Group 6: Lead Industry Analysis - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, with the approaching peak consumption season of lead batteries, demand may increase [14] - Currently, demand remains good, and the proportion of long-term orders is stable. Lead smelters rely on by-products such as gold and silver to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [14] Group 7: Research Enterprise Details Enterprise A - Production: A lead comprehensive smelting enterprise with a relatively high operating rate. It relies on by-product profits to maintain production due to cost inversion [18] - Raw Materials: Purchases oxidized lead ore containing gold and silver from Inner Mongolia, etc. Non-lead concentrate raw materials include antimony-containing crude lead, lead-containing slag, copper soot, lead mud, etc. Raw material inventory can support one month of production [18] - Product Sales: Finished product inventory is generally low, but there is some inventory this year, all sold through long-term contracts to large battery enterprises [18] Enterprise B - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with stable operation of the primary smelter. Sulfuric acid production is about 900 tons per day, and the domestic downstream fertilizer demand and export orders are good [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic lead concentrate (about 50%), imports (about 30%), and the rest is recycled. Raw material inventory is about 20 days [19] - Product Sales: There is basically no finished product inventory, and products are mainly sold through long-term contracts. 10,000 tons of crude lead are directly sold to large smelters in Henan, and electrolytic lead is sold to downstream battery enterprises such as Tianneng [19] Enterprise C - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise operating at full capacity. It relies on by-product comprehensive returns to increase profits, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,500 tons per day and small metal production of about 100 - 150 tons per month [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic and imported raw materials. Lead ore supply is tight, while zinc ore supply is relatively abundant [19][20] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot inventory is 4,000 - 5,000 tons, mainly sold through long-term contracts. Lead ingots have no inventory and are mainly sold to traders. Zinc alloy customers are mainly in the automotive and hardware industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [19][21] Enterprise D - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with normal production scheduling. Annual mid-year maintenance has been completed [22] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate through long-term contracts [22] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot + alloy inventory is about 5,000 tons, and lead ingots have no inventory. Customers are mainly in Shandong, Tianjin, Hebei, etc. Pricing is under pressure due to strong downstream customers [22] Enterprise E - Production: A zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise producing 1 and 0 zinc, mainly 0 zinc. By-product comprehensive returns are good, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,000 tons per day and low production costs [23] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate, considering grade and quality [23] - Product Sales: Inventory is at a low level [24]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 08 月 06 日 国债期货交割梳理与 2509 合约交割分析 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 宋子钰（联系人） | 从业资格证号：F03136034 | songziyu@gtht.com | | 黄民懿（联系人） | 从业资格证号：F03103956 | huangminyi2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 近期国债期货持仓量持续攀升，叠加上季和上上季合约交割率和交割量显著提升（如 T2506 交割率 9.3%、TF2506 交割量 1.05 万手均创纪录），2509 合约在持仓规模与正套机会驱动下，交割量及交割率可 能延续高位。然而，随着自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起恢复对国债、地方债及金融债利息收入征收增值税，2509 合约的交割逻辑和交割预期可能会发生转变。本报告对国债期货交割流程与优势进行了总结，并对过去的 交割情况从多角度进行了梳理和总结，从正套机会、利率风险和持仓量等角度，结合空方交割意愿和多方 拿券意愿等角度，对国债期货 2509 的未来交割情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 6, 2025, and also gives the expected trend of some futures in August 2025. It also provides macro - news, commodity - related information, and the performance of various futures on August 5, 2025 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Performance on August 5, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly higher and rising, with varying degrees of increase [14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling [37]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc. showed different trends of rising or falling, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing downward pressure [42][48][52]. 2. Futures Market Forecast on August 6, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4100 and 4122 points, and support levels at 4080 and 4060 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2509 and 30 - year TL2509 are expected to be strongly volatile [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, and polycrystalline silicon are expected to be strongly volatile; copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as glass, soda ash, etc. are expected to be weakly volatile; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Futures Market Forecast in August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM are all expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold and silver are expected to be strongly and widely volatile; copper, aluminum, and iron ore are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; rebar is expected to be weakly and widely volatile; crude oil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [42][52][77][85]. 4. Macro - News - China is implementing a series of policies, including free pre - school education, financial support for new industrialization, and health - environment promotion [8]. - The US trade deficit has shrunk, and economic data such as the ISM non - manufacturing index are mixed; Japan may raise interest rates; the eurozone's comprehensive PMI has rebounded slightly [9][10][11]. 5. Commodity - Related Information - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative for the photovoltaic industry; the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market in July have increased significantly [11]. - On August 5, international oil prices fell, precious metals rose, and base metals showed mixed trends [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Non-farm payroll data weakened [2] - Silver: Small rebound [2] - Copper: LME inventory increased, prices under pressure [2] - Zinc: Weak and volatile [2] - Lead: Inventory decreased, prices supported [2] - Tin: Range-bound [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Intensified long-short game, narrow range for nickel prices [2] - Stainless steel: Constrained by supply-demand reality, raw material costs limit downside [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Gold T+D were 782.50 and 779.92 respectively, with daily increases of 0.14% and 0.56%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T+D were 9075 and 9052 respectively, with daily increases of 0.40% and 0.60% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 1 to 955.94, and SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 23 to 15,044.48. Inventory changes were also observed in Shanghai and Comex [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a neutral and slightly positive outlook [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,580, up 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78070, down 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,635, down 0.76% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk changed compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850, and various spreads also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22380, up 0.56%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754, up 0.90% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc changed compared to the previous day [13]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels of zinc also showed different changes [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16775, up 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5, down 0.53% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead changed compared to the previous day [17]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels of lead changed, with inventory decreasing [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 267,490, up 0.38%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,300, up 0.53% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract and LME Tin changed compared to the previous day [20]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Inventory of Shanghai and LME tin decreased, and various spreads also changed [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [26]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20560, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3227. The cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in the futures market changed compared to the previous day [27]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels in the aluminum industry chain showed different changes [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,910, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,960 [31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Nickel and stainless - steel main contracts changed compared to the previous day [31]. - **Industry News**: There were various industry news related to nickel, such as production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [31][33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened; Silver: Slight rebound; Copper: LME inventory increased, price under pressure; Zinc: Weak and volatile; Lead: Inventory decreased, price supported; Tin: Range - bound; Aluminum: Range - bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum; Nickel: Intensified long - short game, narrow - range fluctuation of nickel price; Stainless steel: Constrained by supply - demand reality, raw material cost limits downside space; Lithium carbonate: Wide - range fluctuation, resource - end disturbances not yet settled; Industrial silicon: Weak fundamental pattern, focus on market sentiment; Polysilicon: Increased news disturbances; Iron ore: Fluctuated repeatedly; Rebar: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range fluctuation; Hot - rolled coil: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range fluctuation; Ferrosilicon: Market information disturbances, wide - range fluctuation; Silicomanganese: Market information disturbances, wide - range fluctuation; Coke: Strong and volatile; Coking coal: Strong and volatile; Log: Fluctuated repeatedly; p - Xylene: Increasing supply - demand pressure, weakening trend; PTA: Negative demand feedback, weakening trend; MEG: Rebound driven by coal price recovery, go long MEG and short PTA/PX; Rubber: Fluctuated; Synthetic rubber: Short - term fluctuated; Asphalt: Consolidated after decline; LLDPE: Still under pressure; PP: Spot fluctuated, light trading; Caustic soda: Expectation for peak - season demand; Pulp: Fluctuated; Glass: Stable price of original sheet; Methanol: Fluctuated under pressure; Urea: International price increase may drive short - term speculation; Styrene: Compress profit and take profit, short in the short term; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market; LPG: Weak cost support; Propylene: Loose supply - demand pattern, short - term weak and volatile; PVC: Range - bound; Fuel oil: Narrow - range adjustment at night, mainly short - term fluctuated; Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weaker than high - sulfur in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market declined again; Container shipping index (European line): Hold short positions as appropriate, may continue to be weak; Staple fiber: Off - season demand, weak and volatile; Bottle chips: Weak and volatile; Offset printing paper: Fluctuated at a low level, lack of upward momentum; Pure benzene: Weak and volatile; Palm oil: Repeated macro - sentiment, mainly go long at a low level; Soybean oil: Fluctuated at a high level, pay attention to the Sino - US trade agreement; Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose and then fell, Dalian soybean meal followed the decline; Soybean No.1: Followed soybeans, declined and fluctuated; Corn: Weak operation; Sugar: India's restorative production increase; Cotton: Pay attention to the impact of external markets; Eggs: Bullish expectation of spot price disappointed; Live pigs: Near - end spot pressure slightly exceeded expectations; Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 782.50 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - closing price was 784.40 with a night - increase of 0.01%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9075 with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the night - closing price was 9178.00 with a night - increase of 1.15% [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - strong sentiment [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US data triggered stagflation concerns, US stocks and bonds fell, and gold rose slightly; China's central bank and other seven departments will support new - type industrialization; The US July ISM services index was only 50.1, etc. [8][11]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai copper's main contract was 78,580 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - closing price was 78070 with a night - decline of 0.65%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,635 with a decline of 0.76% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products; Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [12][14]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 22380 with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754 with an increase of 0.90% [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds; If non - farm payrolls deteriorate further, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [16]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai lead's main contract was 16775 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5 with a decline of 0.53% [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US July ISM services PMI was only 50.1; Trump will make decisions on new Fed governors [19]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai tin's main contract was 267,490 with a daily increase of 0.38%, and the night - closing price was 266,950 with a night - increase of 0.30%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk was 33,300 with an increase of 0.53% [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including US economic data and Trump's policy announcements [22][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 20560, the LME aluminum 3M was 2565. The closing price of Shanghai alumina's main contract was 3227, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20005 [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's policy on Fed governors and tariff announcements [31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120,910, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,960 [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesian nickel - related projects have production changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 67,680, and the closing price of the 2511 contract was 67,840 [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased; The domestic energy storage market had procurement and bidding activities [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,450, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,330 [42]. - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral and relatively bullish sentiment respectively [44]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Hebei Province promotes green - electricity direct - connection projects [43]. Iron Ore - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 798.5 with an increase of 8.0 and a rise - rate of 1.01% [46]. - **Trend Intensity**: Iron ore trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [46]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [46]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Performance**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,233 with an increase of 44 and a rise - rate of 1.38%. The closing price of HC2510 was 3,457 with an increase of 64 and a rise - rate of 1.89% [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production, inventory, and demand data changes; Policy on industry competition and capacity governance [51][52]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Performance**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5716, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6018 [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [57]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price changes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; Manganese ore price changes [55][58]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: The closing price of JM2509 was 1035 with an increase of 29.5 and a rise - rate of 2.9%. The closing price of J2509 was 1634.5 with an increase of 19.5 and a rise - rate of 1.2% [60]. - **Trend Intensity**: Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [62]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [61]. Log - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 829, with a daily decline of 1.5% [64]. - **Trend Intensity**: Log trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment [66]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [66]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Price Performance**: No specific price data provided in a summary form, but p - xylene has increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has negative demand feedback and a weakening trend; MEG rebounds driven by coal price recovery [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: No relevant content provided. - **Macro and Industry News**: No relevant content provided.

2025 年 08 月 06 日 期货研究 铜：LME 库存增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，美国 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 仅 50.1，就业指数萎缩，价格指数创 2022 年 10 月新高。（华尔 街见闻） 特朗普：本周决定美联储新理事，可借理事空缺挑选美联储主席，排除财长贝森特担任美联储主席的可 能，未来一周内宣布药品和芯片关税，24 小时内大幅提高印度关税。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，特朗普将自 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,580 | 0.32% | 78070 | -0.65% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,635 | -0.76% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides a "Focus Index" for specific sectors: the coal and coke sector is rated ★★★★, indicating high attention [8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Policy Impact**: The joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization" by seven departments including the People's Bank of China aims to promote the high - end development of industries, support digital infrastructure construction, prevent "involution - type" competition, and enhance the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [7]. - **Sector Analysis** - **Coal and Coke**: Supply contraction expectations are strengthening, and the market is in a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **PX**: With supply increasing and demand decreasing in August, the supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and a short - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12]. - **Other Commodities**: Different trends are presented for various commodities such as precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, including trends like narrow - range fluctuations, bullish or bearish trends [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy News - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued an opinion to support new - style industrialization, strengthen long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction, and support important mineral resource development [7]. - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds this week, and there are concerns about the U.S. economic situation such as stagflation [24]. 3.2 Sector Highlights 3.2.1 Coal and Coke - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic supply recovery is slow, and imports are normal. Policy - driven supply contraction expectations are strong. The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, but downstream steel mills are resistant to further increases [9][11]. - **Price Analysis**: From a valuation perspective, coal prices are affected by both the market and policy. From a spread perspective, it shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations [9][11]. 3.2.2 PX - **Supply - Demand Changes**: Supply increases due to device restarts, while demand decreases. The supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and the downward trend in spot prices and the pressure on the futures market are evident [12]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold shows a slight increase due to weak non - farm data, and silver rebounds slightly. The trend intensity of both is relatively weak [20][23]. 3.2.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventories increase, and prices are under pressure. Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation have an impact on the market [25]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [28]. - **Lead**: Inventory decreases, and prices are supported [32]. - **Tin**: The market is in a range - bound state, and the trend intensity is slightly bearish [34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is in a range - bound state, alumina shows a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [42]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations. Stainless steel is dragged down by supply - demand realities, but raw material costs limit the downside [46]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is in a wide - range fluctuation state, and resource - side disturbances have not been resolved [51]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation, and polysilicon is affected by more news disturbances [55]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [59]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the supply - demand situation and macro - policies have an impact on the market [62]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Affected by market information, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state. The cost and price of raw materials and market transactions have an impact on the market [67]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are expected to be volatile and bullish, with supply contraction expectations and price increases [72]. - **Log**: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Slight decline [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides updated fundamental data on aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventories in both the futures and spot markets [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,560, down 45 compared to T - 5; the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,565, down 41 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased, and the LME Aluminum 3M trading volume also decreased. The LME注销仓单占比 decreased, and the LME Aluminum cash - 3M spread and other spreads showed different changes [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,227, down 80 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and the spreads also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,005, up 75. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The spreads and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price, aluminum rod processing fees, and other prices showed different trends. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,791.59, and the import and export profit and loss also changed. The domestic and LME aluminum ingot inventories showed different trends [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina increased, and the prices of imported alumina and bauxite from different regions also changed. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12, the price of Baotai ADC12, and other indicators changed, and the three - place inventory decreased [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) increased [1] Other Information - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, rule out the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent as Fed chairman, and announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours. He also criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and narrowed the potential candidates for the future Fed chairman to four [3] - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is weak, recommended to short PXN on rallies and conduct reverse calendar spreads for the monthly spread [8] - PTA: Trend is weak, recommended to conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread [8] - MEG: Trend is relatively stronger than PTA/PX, recommended to conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread and go long MEG while shorting PTA [8][9] 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to the lack of clear price signals and concerns about supply - demand imbalances and geopolitical factors such as Trump's new tariffs and potential sanctions on Russia [5] - PX supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices, while demand may be affected by the maintenance of some downstream devices, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [8] - PTA has sufficient spot supply and weak basis, and the polyester industry's weak performance may lead to a downward drive for PTA prices [8] - MEG is supported by coal prices, and its supply is affected by the delay of some device restarts. With low port inventories, its price trend is relatively stronger [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On August 5, the price was relatively strong, with the end - of - day MOPJ price estimated at $580/ton CFR. The Asian PX price was range - bound, and the PX - naphtha spread slightly widened. There were no transactions during the Platts assessment [3][5][6] - PTA: A 120 - million - ton PTA device in East China is preparing to restart, and a 150 - million - ton device is expected to undergo maintenance soon [6] - MEG: A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Malaysia stopped due to an accident, and the main ports are expected to receive about 138,000 tons of goods from August 4 - 10 [6] - Polyester: On August 5, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average sales rate of about 30%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 47% [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [7] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [7] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: Conduct reverse calendar spreads for the monthly spread, short PXN on rallies. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [8] - PTA: Conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread. The spot supply is sufficient, and the polyester industry's weak performance may lead to downward price pressure [8] - MEG: Conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread, go long MEG while shorting PTA. Supported by coal prices, with low port inventories and some device restart delays [8][9]