Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Weak pure benzene, strong styrene, with a high price difference maintained. In the short term, styrene exports continue to exceed expectations, and the downstream replenishment cycle has started, leading to a rapid market rebound. The market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Due to continuous maintenance of overseas styrene plants in the first quarter, export negotiations continue, bringing marginal benefits to the market. Domestic shut - down styrene plants have no short - term restart plans, and new supply is limited. The resilience of the downstream 3S products exceeds expectations. After the styrene price increase, continuous buying has led to a short - term positive feedback loop in the market. This round of rebound is driven by styrene, pulling up the price of pure benzene. Currently, pure benzene still has significant physical pressure, but the long - term outlook is gradually improving. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - term price reduction after the reduction of pure benzene imports is realized [3][67]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In December, 110,000 tons of capacity was under maintenance, and the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons in January (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Major plants with large - scale maintenance include Sinochem Quanzhou, LIDONG, and Zhejiang Petrochemical. Some Shandong local refineries will increase their operating loads after solving the quota problem to make up for part of the production loss. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang plant [3][67]. - **Pure benzene imports**: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, which is estimated to affect 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [3][67]. Demand - **Styrene**: In December, 85,000 tons of capacity was under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. After December, the plant operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the increase in production from the start - up of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [3][67]. - **Caprolactam**: Negative feedback from CPL has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of capacity was expected to be under maintenance, and 60,000 tons in January, mainly at Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, and Xuyang Cangzhou. In December, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project, and in January, the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei. Attention should also be paid to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to early restart of the plants [3][67]. - **Phenol**: The operation rate is gradually rising. In December, 30,000 tons of capacity was under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of the new Shandong Ruilin plant may be postponed [3][67]. - **Aniline**: In December, 70,000 tons of capacity was under maintenance, mainly at Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, and Chongqing Basf, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants have extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][67]. - **Styrene downstream 3S products**: The demand for styrene downstream 3S products exceeded expectations. Previously, it was thought that downstream factories had high inventory pressure and limited restocking ability. However, after the rapid market rise last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle. Currently, home appliance manufacturers are preparing for a good start after the Spring Festival, stimulating the restocking process in the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price increase of 3S products [3][67]. Valuation - **Absolute price valuation**: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [3][67]. - **EB processing fee**: The profit will expand in the short term [3][67]. Strategy - **Unilateral trading**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling BZ on rallies [3][67]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Pay attention to the reverse spread of EB02 - 03 [3][67]. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: Take short - term profit on the PX - BZ spread [3][67].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on overseas equities (Hong Kong and US stocks) by Guotai Junan Futures, covering market trends, investment strategies, and industry outlooks [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - For US stocks, maintain an optimistic view, continue the allocation idea of technology circle - shrinking and cyclical sectors, and focus on AI technology, healthcare, utilities, finance, materials, and consumer sectors. In the AI field, hardware is preferred over software [5] - For Chinese - funded stocks, in the short - term, the style may switch from themes to high - quality growth or low - level sectors. In the medium - term, Hong Kong stocks maintain a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets, some new energy sectors, and the non - ferrous metals sector [12] Summary by Relevant Content US Stocks - **Market Performance**: This week, the AI hardware and AI power sectors led the rise, with hardware outperforming software. The "shrinking circle" differentiation of the technology sector has further intensified [3][5] - **Investment Strategy**: In 2026, the market style will be more balanced. Focus on "technology circle - shrinking" and theme investment opportunities in "physical AI". The K - shaped differentiation between Mag7 and Ex - Mag7, and between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 is expected to gradually converge. Prioritize upstream infrastructure in AI technology over downstream software [5] - **AI Bubble**: It is a local rather than a systematic bubble. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The technology industry may be at a position similar to that in 1997 from the ROIC perspective [27] Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Market Sentiment**: Recently, under regulatory guidance, sentiment has cooled. Southbound funds' trading volume proportion has increased at the beginning of the year [7][8] - **Market Performance**: In the short - term, the spring rally in the A - share market has started, and Hong Kong stocks have shown a supplementary increase. In the medium - to long - term, the A - share market may have greater elasticity than the Hong Kong stock market [10] - **Investment Strategy**: - Short - term: The style may switch, and it is recommended to focus on technology and cyclical sectors with high performance certainty [12] - Medium - term: For Hong Kong stocks, maintain a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets, new energy sectors, and non - ferrous metals sectors [12] A - Share Market - **Performance Forecast**: As of January 16, stocks with expected profit growth of over 100% are mainly concentrated in the electronics, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment industries [13] Valuation Analysis - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is 12 times, approaching the mean + 1 STD since 2015. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.9 times, approaching the mean in the past five years. The ERP of the Hang Seng Index is 4.7%, and the ERP of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 0.9% [15][16] - **US Stocks**: Analyze the odds from the forward PE perspective, and the overall credit spread of the US stock market and the technology sector remains low [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon inventory has shifted to accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. With a supply - demand logic leaning towards the bearish side, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be adopted, such as shorting when the price rebounds to 8800 - 9000 and taking profit at 8200 - 8300 [6]. - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates within a range, and attention should be paid to the details of the rectification measures next Tuesday. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and strong demand, and the futures price is expected to remain above the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon futures prices have fallen from highs and fluctuated widely, with spot prices remaining flat. The futures price closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, and the SMM - reported prices of Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon were unchanged from the previous period [2]. - Polysilicon futures prices fluctuated within a range. Some funds may have traded on the expectation of a platform rectification plan next Tuesday, and the futures price closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday. There is an expectation of price loosening in the upstream of the polysilicon spot market, and attention should be paid to the next restocking node of downstream enterprises in late January [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory has slightly increased. Xinjiang's production has increased, while Sichuan and Inner Mongolia's production has decreased. The overall weekly output has slightly decreased month - on - month. The Southwest has entered the dry season, and local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang are still in a heat - preservation state, and some have slightly resumed production. The social inventory has increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory has increased by 0.42 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.7 million tons [3]. - Demand side: Downstream demand is weak. In the polysilicon field, there is short - term production reduction, and if further production cuts are implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will decrease. In the organic silicon field, production has decreased this week, and there are plans for further production cuts. Although the logic of price support is difficult to succeed, the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to pre - emptive exports and some consumption increments. In the aluminum alloy field, manufacturers purchase reasonably at low prices and are more cautious at other times. Overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Short - term weekly output has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, silicon material manufacturers reduced production passively due to inventory pressure. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has increased month - on - month, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. The current factory inventory is around 320,000 tons, and the industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to five months of consumption [4]. - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule has increased month - on - month. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable in January, and the price increase has been passed on to downstream, supporting the increase in production. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a peak season for component and cell exports in the first quarter, boosting terminal demand [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: With inventory accumulation and a supply - demand situation of both weak supply and demand, the upside of the futures price is limited. However, short - term sentiment speculation and the preference of funds for low - valuation varieties limit the downside. A strategy of shorting on rallies can be adopted, with a predicted next - week futures price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The futures price fluctuates within a range. The supply - demand situation is of weak supply and strong demand, and the futures price is expected to remain above the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. The release of the rectification plan next Tuesday will support the futures price. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The predicted next - week futures price range is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short industrial silicon at high prices. For polysilicon, consider options instead of futures [6][7]. - Inter - period: No recommendation [8]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging [8].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：站在新的起涨点 白银：做多金银比 | 02 | 铜：美联储降息预期减弱和库存增加施压价格，但长期基本面良好 | | --- | --- | | | 铝：高位磨盘，关注回调后的买点 | | 03 | 氧化铝：现期货共振走弱，下方空间恐犹在 | | 04 | 铸造铝合金：高价抑制需求，关注需求负反馈 | 08 铂金：维持震荡，钯金：区间震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views - **Steel**: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough. The macro - environment is generally favorable, but the fundamentals show a pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products, with steel mill profits continuing to compress. The upward drive depends on cost - push factors, while the downward drive comes from the accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore prices are returning downward, but there is still macro - support. Overseas supply is at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak. Demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival restocking, and there is a risk of upward drive deviating from the fundamentals [77][79]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by events and valuation repair, the rhythm is more important than the trend. The supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand is still accumulating [127]. - **Ferroalloys**: The fundamentals will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. The alloy prices are oscillating, and the cost and demand sides have different impacts on silicon iron and manganese silicon [214][216]. - **Steam Coal**: The short - term market is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather. The supply is stable currently but may shrink before the Spring Festival, demand may be boosted by cold air, and inventory at northern ports is high [291][292]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly View - **Logic**: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The domestic macro - environment is generally favorable, with the central economic work conference re - emphasizing "anti - involution" and the improvement and stabilization of the real estate market expectation [8][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. Steel mill profits continue to compress. Technically, black chain indexes and related contracts face previous high pressure [8]. - **Upward Drive**: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost - push factors, such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction and sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end [8]. - **Downward Drive**: The accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 and the release of high - inventory liquidity in iron ore may lead to a decline [8]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly View - **Supply**: Overseas overall shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak both year - on - year and month - on - month. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China are falling [78][79]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased month - on - month but is still relatively high year - on - year. Pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may support iron ore demand [79]. - **Macro - level**: The central bank's decision to cut re - loan and re - discount rates has rekindled market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing some support for short - term domestic risk asset valuations [79]. - **Contract Performance**: The main 05 contract price has weakened oscillatingly, with an increase in positions and a decrease in trading volume [83]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of medium - grade goods are relatively firm, with small declines [85]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke View - **Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has returned to normal, with smooth shipments. Import volume has increased, and the inventory in the regulatory area is being depleted [125]. - **Demand**: Coke has started the first round of price increases. The iron ore demand is supported by the raw material rigid demand, and iron ore is expected to rise again after the end of maintenance [128]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has begun to transfer downstream [128]. - **View Summary**: Driven by events and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [127]. 4. Ferroalloys Weekly View - **Price Movement**: The alloy prices are oscillating, and the disk center of gravity has moved down further. The cost side may support the disk to maintain an oscillating pattern [216]. - **Macro**: The central bank has clarified its key work in 2026, and there is no significant overseas news [216]. - **Micro**: The iron ore output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials is weakly supported [216]. - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron, the cost has decreased, and the explicit inventory has decreased. For manganese silicon, the cost is supported, but the supply expansion plan in the north and the accumulation of inventory suppress the price [216]. 5. Steam Coal - **Supply**: Currently, coal mines are producing normally, and supply is stable. However, supply may shrink before the Spring Festival. In 2025, the national coal production and import had certain changes, and the coal production increment may narrow in 2026 [291]. - **Demand**: The cold air will strengthen in the next 10 days, which may boost daily consumption. Currently, the power plant's daily consumption has declined, and the market is only making sporadic purchases [291]. - **Inventory**: The sentiment at northern ports is weak, and the port inventory has increased due to wind - induced navigation closures. It may decline slightly later [292]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term coal price may be oscillatingly weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather [292]. - **Outlook**: The impact of nuclear - reducing production capacity is unclear, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and terminal restocking [292].

2026年01月18日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 工业硅：下游减产，反弹逢高布空 | 12 | | 多晶硅：下周二市场情绪或有提振 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：基本面偏强叠加现货采买意愿升温，短期下方空间有限 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 18 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：1 月 8 日印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整，1 月 14 日接受采访时表示 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia's policy uncertainties, including nickel ore quota adjustments, consideration of taxing associated minerals, and fines for illegal mining, have led to a divergence in market expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will also be affected by these factors, with a wide - range of fluctuations in the short - term [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in market sentiment next Tuesday, with a supply - demand situation of weak supply and strong demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures directly, but options can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and the spot purchase intention is increasing. The short - term downside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [52][55]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [79][80][84]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: After the market has digested the negative factors, soybean meal prices may rebound at low levels. Soybean No.1 spot prices are stable and strong, and futures prices will follow the market sentiment [94][99]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with limited downward adjustment space before the Spring Festival [113][118]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, sugar prices are in a low - level consolidation. Domestically, the market maintains a weak basis expectation, and it is necessary to pay attention to import policy changes [136][138][164]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton lacks fundamental drivers, and domestic cotton prices continue to adjust. It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on demand [165][180]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices will fluctuate and adjust, and the futures market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage. Attention should be paid to the trading of off - season expectations after the Spring Festival [181][182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are in a pattern of weak peak - season performance. Futures prices are weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [197][198]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely, and stainless steel prices are affected by nickel - related factors and show wide - range fluctuations [7][8][9]. - **Inventory**: Refined nickel inventory in China decreased slightly, while LME nickel inventory increased. The inventory of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain decreased [10]. - **Market News**: Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including restricting new smelting licenses, adjusting nickel ore quotas, and considering taxing associated minerals [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices fluctuated within a range [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased [30][31][32]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory increased, and polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate [30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: High lithium prices may lead to the resumption of overseas lithium mines. Demand is strong in the off - season, and inventory has decreased [53][54]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and soybean oil prices were in a range - bound operation [79][84]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease in January, and Indonesia's B50 policy is uncertain. Soybean oil is affected by the US biodiesel policy and South American soybean production [80][83]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Price Trends**: Soybean meal prices were weak, and soybean No.1 prices oscillated [94]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: China's continuous purchase of US soybeans has a positive impact, while the USDA report has a short - term negative impact. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased, and spot prices are stable [94][97]. Corn - **Price Trends**: Spot and futures prices both increased [113][114]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, and corn starch inventory decreased [115][116][117]. Sugar - **Price Trends**: Internationally, New York raw sugar prices increased slightly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices decreased slightly [136][137]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's production increased slightly, India's production increased significantly, and Thailand's production decreased [154][155]. Cotton - **Price Trends**: ICE cotton prices first rose and then fell, and domestic cotton prices continued to adjust [165][168]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted the US and global cotton balances. Domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season [169][174]. Pigs - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices fluctuated strongly [181]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is tight, and demand is stable. The market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage [181][182]. Peanuts - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [197]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. The inventory pressure may be postponed to after the Spring Festival [197][198].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views - Palm oil is in a relatively high position in the bottom - range oscillation. There are uncertainties in the long - term direction, and short - term operations are recommended. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March [5][7]. - Soybean oil is expected to run in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the theme resonance in the first quarter [8][9]. - Soybean meal prices may rebound after the negative factors have been digested [18][24]. - Soybean No. 1's spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price may rebound and oscillate [19][24]. - Corn is expected to be oscillating strongly [38][43]. - Sugar is in a low - level consolidation phase both internationally and domestically [61][63][88]. - Cotton is continuing its adjustment trend, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillating strongly [89][104]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and the futures market is approaching the stage of double - increase in supply and demand [105][107]. - Peanuts are in a weak oscillation, and the futures are short - term weak. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [123][124]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Last week's view and logic**: The news affected the palm oil market, causing strong fluctuations. The 05 contract rose 0.35% weekly. The lack of South American weather speculation limited the upward drive of US soybeans, and soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to oscillate in a range, with the 05 contract rising 0.58% weekly [4]. - **This week's view and logic**: MPOB's December data showed an inventory increase. In January, the inventory is expected to decline. However, the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy and other factors make the long - term direction unclear. The market is in a bottom - range oscillation, and short - term operations are advisable [5][7]. Soybean Oil - **Last week's view and logic**: Lack of South American weather speculation limited the upward drive of US soybeans, and soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to oscillate in a range, with the 05 contract rising 0.58% weekly [4]. - **This week's view and logic**: The US biodiesel policy may increase the demand for US soybean oil, but the upward space still needs to be carefully evaluated. US soybeans are expected to oscillate and stabilize in January. Domestic soybean oil may continue the de - stocking process until March - April [8]. Soybean Meal - **Last week's situation**: US soybean futures first fell and then rose. Domestic soybean meal futures were weak, and soybean No. 1 futures oscillated. The 1 - month USDA report was bearish, but there were also positive factors such as Chinese procurement [19]. - **Next week's prediction**: After the negative factors have been digested, soybean meal prices may rebound [24]. Soybean No. 1 - **Last week's situation**: Domestic soybean No. 1 futures oscillated. The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, but the market was affected by the bearish atmosphere of the soybean market [19]. - **Next week's prediction**: The futures price may rebound and oscillate, and it should pay attention to the sentiment of the soybean market [24]. Corn - **Market review**: In the week of January 16, the spot price of corn rose, and the futures market also increased. The CBOT corn fell, wheat prices were stable with reduced auctions, and corn starch inventory decreased [38][39][40][41][42]. - **Market outlook**: Corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the price callback space before the Spring Festival is limited [43]. Sugar - **This week's market review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price increased slightly, and the net long position of funds increased. Domestically, the spot price was stable, and the futures price fell slightly. The production of major sugar - producing countries showed different trends [61][62]. - **Next week's market outlook**: Internationally and domestically, sugar is in a low - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the production and export rhythm of Brazil, the production and policies of India, and domestic import policies [63][88]. Cotton - **Market situation**: ICE cotton first rose and then fell. Domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to adjust. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [89]. - **Operation suggestion**: USDA's adjustment of cotton data strengthened the support of ICE cotton, but it still lacks fundamental drive. Domestic cotton is expected to wait for the determination of phased support after the Spring Festival [104]. Hogs - **This week's market review**: The spot price of hogs was strong, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The supply was tight, and the demand was stable [105]. - **Next week's market outlook**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. The market is approaching the stage of double - increase in supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the spot price confirmation around the Laba Festival [106][107]. Peanuts - **Market review**: The spot price of peanuts was stable, and the futures price fell. The supply was expected to be abundant, and the terminal consumption was insufficient [123]. - **Market outlook**: The spot market is in a pattern of "peak season without prosperity". The futures are short - term weak, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival and the changes in oil mill acquisition strategies and imported peanut arrivals [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term policy vacuum period due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary market funds. The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. For trading, it is recommended to consider options, and pay attention to structural opportunities. [4][5] - For stainless steel, the expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season exerts pressure, while the cost center moves up due to the increase in ferronickel cost. Attention should be paid to the variables in Indonesian nickel ore policies. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 News Affecting the Nickel Market - **Quota Event**: On January 8, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the quota would be adjusted according to industry demand. On January 14, it was mentioned that the target might be cut to 260 million tons of nickel ore quota. The policy for 2026 is still under review, and it is expected that specific policies will be clarified in the first quarter. If the 260 - million - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end and impact high inventories. [1] - **伴生 Mineral Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10%. [2] - **违规 Fine Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The final fine may be lower than the initial estimate. If the fine is implemented, it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices. [2] - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining the 2026 mining quota approval. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor hydrometallurgical projects. [3] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Nickel - Industrial players focus on the weak fundamentals of nickel, with over - supply pressure and expectations of low - cost hydrometallurgical production. They mainly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices for hedging. Secondary market funds expect policy changes in Indonesia and tend to go long at low prices in the long - term. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter. [4][5] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - The expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season puts pressure on stainless steel. However, the increase in ferronickel cost due to various factors in Indonesia may push up the cost of stainless steel. The cost logic may cause the stainless steel price to oscillate with a higher center, but the marginal increase in supply and weak demand still have a drag effect. [6] 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons. [7] - **新能源**: On January 16, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor inventory and ternary material inventory also increased month - on - month. [7] - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On January 15, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM nickel - iron decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. Stainless steel factory inventory decreased in December, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week on January 15. [7] 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing certain nickel - related products. [8] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026. [8] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources would revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection. [8] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons. [10]

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：高位磨盘，关注回调后的买点 ◆ 我们上周提及，近期特别需要关注的是，当前仓位管理的重要性在提升，铝价在高价位上的波动大概率会放大，在 留有期货底仓的情况下，更多运用期权等工具进行风险对冲防范的必要性增强。未来触顶的风险点建议关注海外AI 相关权益资产表现（近期表现相对稳健）、下游加工利润指标（表现弱，但倾向认为是次要逻辑）等。基于本周我 们在华东、华南产业圈的调研沟通，当前我们仍倾向于认为下游的反噬更多还是阶段性的抵抗，未来贵金属有色板 块触顶拐点的主要逻辑仍需依赖海外宏观叙事。 ◆ 短期周度级别的微观需求上，表现有参差。截至1月15日，铝锭社库较上周累库3.1万吨至74.9万吨。截至1月16日， SMM华东现货贴水扩大至-180元/吨，华南现货贴水亦扩大至-150元/吨。下游方面，截至1月16日铝板带箔周度总产 量环比继续回落，2026年 ...