国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 4、铁合金观点：基本面矛盾未解，成本底部支撑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年10月19日 2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：重大会议前夕，钢价存在反弹机会 2、铁矿周度观点：风偏回落，价格高位回调 3、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with contradictions still accumulating. Stainless steel has no obvious upward drive in the supply - demand situation, but cost limits the downside space. Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and for polysilicon, the policy logic remains, with attention on the implementation node. Lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly due to the significant reduction of futures warehouse receipts [2][5][6][29][34][35][67][69]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel Fundamentals**: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic is intense. Refined nickel has marginal supply increase and weak demand, but the substitution of nickel - iron for nickel - plate in the alloy end and the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore policies affect the price. The short - term price has support at the bottom while inventory is accumulating at a high level [5]. - **Stainless Steel Fundamentals**: In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand double - weak thinking. In the short - term, there is a lack of upward drive in the fundamentals, but cost limits the downside space. The 10 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the cumulative surplus has converged compared to previous years [6]. - **Inventory Tracking**: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased, LME nickel inventory also increased. For stainless steel, the upstream inventory is high, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [9]. - **Market News**: There are events such as Indonesia's sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB policies, and potential tariff increases by the US, which all have an impact on the market [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price declined. The polysilicon futures price was strongly volatile, and the spot price was stable [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase in October, and the southwest region may reduce production in the future. The demand from downstream sectors has different trends, and overall, the industry inventory is accumulating. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in October and then decrease, and the demand from the silicon - wafer end is expected to be strong in October and may change later. The 10 - month supply - demand will accumulate inventory, and the inventory accumulation will slow down from November to December [30][31][34][35]. - **Trading Suggestions**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high prices, with the expected next - week futures price range of 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the expected next - week futures price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened, while the spot price declined slightly. The basis and the spread between different contracts also changed [67]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The futures warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate decreased significantly, indicating strong demand in the spot market. The production reached a new high, and the demand is expected to be optimistic until November, but the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage needs attention [68]. - **Trading Suggestions**: It is recommended to be bullish but not chase the price in the single - side trading. For inter - period trading, positive spreads are recommended. For hedging, option hedging is suggested [69].

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 碳酸锂：期货仓单库存大幅去化，偏强运行 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：走强 需求：需求预期普遍较为乐观，且预计可维持至 11 月，但需关注美国对中国储能的关税政策。2025 年 10 月，SMM 预测电池产量 185.8Gwh，环比增长 4%，则言预测正极铁锂排产环比增长 10%，三元环比增 长 2%。10 月 17 日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，自 11 月 1 日起对进口中型和重型卡车及零部件征收 25%的新关税。特朗普称，还将对进口客车征收 10%的关税。 后市观点：偏强运行 期货仓单去库 1.2 万吨，引发碳酸锂期货价格大幅上行，并且升贴水维持走强。受到储能现实强需求 的影响，带动期现价格走强，但是后续存在两大风险点，其一是江西云母矿大厂存在年底前后复产预期， 其二是美国对华关税在 10 月底前后存在加征的变数，从而将明显削弱当前储能需求的旺盛状态。 单边：由于存在向下驱动的风险事件，碳酸锂单边建议看多不追多，期货主力合约价格运行区间预计 7.2-8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of tin is neutral, and the price range is 270,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the tin price decreased by 3%. Recently, the tin price rose above 290,000 due to the Indonesian event and macro - sentiment, but fell again this week. The domestic and foreign inventories moved in opposite directions: domestic social inventory decreased with the shutdown and maintenance in Yunnan, while LME inventory increased again as the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped significantly. Overseas spot premiums also declined sharply, and the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces in China rose above 50%, with smelters resuming production after maintenance. Tin prices are under pressure recently. Domestic fundamentals have loosened, and overseas risk - appetite has been affected by government shutdowns and bank failures, which may slow down the AI narrative. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of Indonesia and Myanmar on the supply side [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Fund, Transaction Volume, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was $142/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 300 yuan/ton [10] - Overseas premiums declined, and premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowed [15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 769 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 93 tons [22] - This week, the LME inventory increased by 325 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 8.41% [24] 3.1.4 Fund - As of this Friday, the settled funds of Shanghai tin were 1,825.9063 million yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [26] 3.1.5 Transaction Volume and Position - This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position volume increased slightly [27] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [33] 3.1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin increased slightly [37] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the tin concentrate output was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [41] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [42] 3.2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [44] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces increased significantly to 50.35% [46] 3.2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, resulting in a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profit - loss was - 15,038 yuan/ton [50] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [54] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased in August, reaching 73.2%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [56] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly [58] - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [60] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased, which was in line with the performance of tin prices [63]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关税战再起，避险刺激接力；白银：关注海外逼仓情况 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：870-930元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升6.3%，伦敦银回升6.58%。金银比从前周的79回落至78.6，10年期TIPS回落至1.75%，10年期名义利率回落至4.02%（2年期 3.46%），美元指数录得98. 55。 ◆ 本周黄金再度创出历史新高，COMEX黄金达到4392美元/盎司，距离4400美元仅一步之遥。黄金价格高企后，上涨斜率只增不减，从突破 4000美金大关至今仅历时10天左右。我们前期提到，特朗普再度挑起贸易战，在中国稀土出口 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情暂好，豆系缺乏有效驱动 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：产地季节性减产尚未到来，印度买盘暂因排灯节放缓，缺乏有效驱动和故事的情况下，棕榈 油 01 合约维持小幅震荡，周跌 1.90%，关注减产季下方支撑。 豆油：巴西产情良好，大供给环境下豆油难以出现独立驱动，跟随油脂板块震荡为主，同时跟随中美 经贸关系波动，豆油 01 合约周跌 0.82%。 本周观点及逻辑： 国 泰 期货研究 以在今年给到大开大合的机会，不排除震荡行情持续至年底。接下来棕榈价格空间的进一步打开只能关注 B50 故事线和产量问题，等待四季度的矛盾进一步凸显。 豆油：美豆油生柴性价比的支撑位随着原油价格下移，同时 SRE 再次分配的问题让规则制定难度加 大，RVO 的最终公布也可能因此延迟，那么在政策落地前美豆油不可避免的累库趋势将使美豆油无法在 RVO 公布前正式表达基本面的偏紧格局，甚至可能在四季度寻求出口，这种情况下美豆油的价格将主要跟 随原油 ...

◼ 宏观面：海外宏观：关税再升级，可能导致需求承压叠加通胀有回升风险，顺周期商品承压；国内宏观：制造业投资和 基建投资端受"反内卷"影响，出现一定下滑，为了保证GDP目标以及走出通缩螺旋，需要需求端再度发力，下周召开 四中全会并公布十五五规划蓝图，市场存在交易政策反弹机会； ◼ 黑色产业链：旺季需求表现为旺季不旺。平衡表视角，若要保证库存不增加，只能通过减少供给实现，而其充分必要条 件就是价格下跌，利润压缩。电炉用的废钢是高成本铁元素，属于供给边际，谷电亏损，产业链端关注电炉减产节奏。 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：重大会议前夕，钢价存在反弹机会 ◼ 逻辑：重大会议前夕，钢价存在反弹机会 | 2025/10/17 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | | | 需求（万吨） | | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：偏弱震荡但下方空间不大 | 供应 | 短纤工厂开工维持，平均开工率94.3%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工维持94.5%，短纤后续预计在93%-95%区间震荡，10-11月更多看下游压力，可 能逐渐小幅下行。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 现货市场低位补库较多，短纤库存继续下降，1.4D权益库存在5天，实物库存15.8天。价格持续下跌过程 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward shift in the valuation center of chemical products, and the overall chemical valuation has stepped down. There is a need to stop losses for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene in the short term, with the market mainly in a volatile pattern. In October, under the impact of overseas sanctions, some major domestic refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly output loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene (depending on the actual load - reduction situation). The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have both turned into destocking expectations. The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Attention should be paid to stopping profit for the previously compressed BZN positions, and the upper end may weaken faster. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S has clearly entered a negative feedback stage, with the downstream demand remaining unoptimistic. The short - term pattern is still volatile [3][109] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to around 30,000 - 50,000 tons. The new device production pressure was relatively large in September, with 56,000 tons realized. New capacities of 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical [3][109] - Imports: The September import volume is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports expected from November to December. The external market still has a large supply pressure [3][109] Demand - Caprolactam: CPL's operation rate is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The current downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][109] - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][109] - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, there was a continuous decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and over - stocking, and the unfulfilled downstream production expansion expectations in the industrial chain. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but the market gradually shifted to a destocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is expected to be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The year - on - year growth rates of apparent demand for pure benzene in 2023 and 2024 were +17.2% and +12% respectively [11] Styrene Supply - In September, maintenance was concentrated, with 79,000 tons mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. At the same time, new production is still being put into operation. It is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will both start production in November, with an average monthly increase in output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][109] Demand - The downstream 3S hard plastics are in a situation of high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. Currently, the downstream has entered a negative feedback stage and is generally weak [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene output contracted. The current situation is high inventory, neutral profit, and high production [81][83] Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. EB processing fees are expected to expand profits in the short term, but the space is limited, mainly in a volatile pattern [3][109] Strategy - Unilateral: Stop profit for empty orders - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3][109]

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供给预期持续扰动，偏强震荡 ➢ 钢厂开工依然偏高，焦企出现一定补库需求，叠加焦炭提涨在部分企业出现，短期焦煤投机需求或有增加。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 现实数据显示节后供应顺季节性有所回升，但回升斜率相对偏慢；另一方面焦炭供给未发生显著边际增长，助涨提振情绪。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 关于中美贸易摩擦的叙事依然较不明朗，其中的风险计价在黑色整体估值上仍有体现；另一方面，近期国内光伏相关产业的会议 较为密集，市场对于其潜在的供给干预预期再起，一定程度上也影响市场投机资金对于煤端未来潜在供给受影响的猜测。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 当前煤焦供需基本面现实的边际矛盾依然较小，盘面价格受到潜在供给收缩预期的影响下出现大幅拉升，但考虑到未来中美贸 易博弈上未来的不确定方向，风偏的变化后期仍 ...