国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 0 2 基本面数据 0 3 本周观点总结 0 4 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月16日，中国纸浆常熟港库存49.8万吨，较上周期增加1.6万吨，环比上涨3.3%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月16日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存140.2万吨，较上周上涨0.7万吨，环比上涨0.5%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈现累 库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月16日，中国纸浆高栏港库存4.2万吨，较上周下降1.2万吨，环比下降22.2%。本周期高栏港库存呈现 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：基本面矛盾未解，成本底部支撑 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量（周） | 11.28 | -2.59% | -3.01% | 20.88 | 2.25% | 20.62% | | | 进口数量（8月） | 0.74 | -40.62% | -8.24% | 0.24 | 13.48% | 95.82% | | 需求 | 出口数量（8月） | 3.50 | -2.60% | -16.00% | 0.46 | 93.27% | 150.67% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market shows a neutral performance with prices ranging from 83,000 to 88,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index's rapid rise indicates increased market uncertainty. The market is cautious due to the game between supply constraints and trade concerns [3]. - Macro risks have affected investor sentiment, but they have recently eased. The raw - material supply shortage persists, potentially leading to a future copper supply gap. Global copper inventories increased this week, with a significant rise in domestic inventories. The supply - shortage logic provides long - term opportunities for long - position allocation, and attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. The long - short spread trading position can continue to be held [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 25% [13]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end structure has changed from B to C [15][19]. - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the COMEX copper position has increased. The SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 77,500 lots on October 3rd to 76,700 lots on October 17th [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, while the bonded - area copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium rose from 20 yuan/ton on October 10th to 55 yuan/ton on October 17th, and the Yangshan Port copper premium fell from 49 dollars/ton to 37 dollars/ton [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a notable increase in domestic social inventory. The global total inventory increased from 695,700 tons on October 9th to 718,800 tons on October 16th, and the domestic social inventory increased from 166,300 tons to 177,500 tons [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, while the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The year - on - year import of copper concentrate has increased, and the processing fee remains weak. In September 2025, China's import of copper ore and its concentrates was 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The port inventory decreased from 509,000 tons on October 10th to 468,000 tons on October 17th [38]. - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The recycled copper import in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.79%, and the domestic production was 94,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.99% [39]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. The blister copper import in August was 61,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.72% [48]. - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper production and import have increased, and the import loss has narrowed. In September, the production was 1.121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. The refined copper import in August was 264,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.87% [52]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in September. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in September but were at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable rebounded marginally in the week of October 17th [56]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee has increased but is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of October 17th, the copper rod processing fee in the power industry in East China was 520 yuan/ton, higher than 490 yuan/ton on October 10th. The 10 - day moving average of the R410A special copper tube processing fee was 5,165 yuan/ton, higher than 5,112 yuan/ton on October 10th [60]. - Raw - Material Inventory: The raw - material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw - material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [61]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. The finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly high - level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic copper apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to August, the cumulative copper consumption was 10.6172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.04%. From January to July, the apparent consumption was 10.6802 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.06%. The power grid investment from January to August was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [71]. - Other Consumption Areas: The air - conditioner production has resumed growth, and the new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level. The domestic air - conditioner production in August was 12.8801 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.43%. The new - energy vehicle production in September was 1.617 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23.72% [72].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.37%，本周增幅环比收窄0.31个百分点。新一轮出版招标暂未放量，下 游社会面需求一般，纸企库存压力仍存。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在48.61%，环比下滑1.84个百分点，本周降幅环比扩大0.72个百分点。国庆节后部分停机 产线复工略晚，叠加价格持续下跌影响下，个别产线开工有所下滑。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 行情走势 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：缺乏明显驱动，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17500元/吨 五地铅总库存下降，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铅精矿加工费持续弱势 0 500 1000 1500 200 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Zinc shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic", and the export window has opened [2][3][5] - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventory continues, while the galvanizing operation rate has rebounded [3] - Domestic supply pressure remains high, with the traditional peak consumption season approaching its end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [5] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the night - session closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,942.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 88,687 lots, a decrease of 86,091 lots compared to the previous week; the open interest was 77,222 lots, a decrease of 29,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11,101 lots, a decrease of 5,565 lots; the open interest was 224,271 lots, an increase of 4,032 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6,673 tons to 67,317 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,677 tons to 109,627 tons; social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 162,700 tons; LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [10][11] 3.2.3 Operation Rate - The smelting operation rate has declined, and the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp and a significant change in the LME CASH - 3M structure [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - shaped structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The LME total inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a historical low. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased [39] - Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high [40] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased and is at a historical high. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historical high. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Secondary Zinc Raw Materials - Not comprehensively summarized in the report 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive, the downstream monthly operation rate has slightly rebounded, and most are at a historical low - to - median level. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [56][59][73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, but no comprehensive conclusion is drawn [74][75][76]

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan - Author Affiliation: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and tend to rise in the long - term. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities at low prices. The cost side provides strong support due to the cancellation of tax - refund policies and tight scrap aluminum supply. With the end - of - year car sales push, the fourth - quarter seasonal performance may be stronger [6]. - As of October 17, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.31 million tons to 13.41 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory pressure remains. In the second week of October, domestic car sales reached 686,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to boosting car consumption [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The current trading volume, position, and capital precipitation data are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2511 - AD2512 contract pair on October 17, 2025, the fixed cost is 11.54 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 66.17 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 78 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton. Considering storage fees, capital costs, and other factors, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.35% [16][19]. - The short - term refined - scrap price difference is rising [24]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The Baotai ADC12 price remains flat, and the recycled - primary price difference fluctuates. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [31][36]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output share are also presented. For example, Guangdong accounts for 19.65% of the output [41][46]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost is estimated to be above the break - even line [47]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [52][56]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production volume, regional production share, factory inventory, and regional inventory share are provided [59][60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the end - of - year sales push stage, which will drive die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the car inventory warning index and the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts manufacturing [65][66].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国债期货周报 | | | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 国债期货合约周度回暖。 ◼ 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反 复震荡中有所回暖。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。同时认为本轮回暖空间有限。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反复震 荡中有所回暖，同时机构周度净多头持仓有所增长。短端合约目前处于价格稳固状态，长端合约波动较 大。通胀同比降幅持续收窄。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 市场特征方面，国债期货市场呈现长端偏强、短端承压的分化特征，收益率曲线形态趋于平坦化。短 端品种（2 年期、5 年期）成交活跃度下降，而长端品种（10 年期、30 年期）持仓量增加。政策博弈、资 金面波动及股债跷跷板效应是核心驱动因素，整体形态因此而倾向于复杂化。 图 1：市场特征跟踪 资料来源：Wind，米筐、森普、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific views and strategies for glass and纯碱 (soda ash) separately: - **Glass**: Short - term: Oscillate weakly; Medium - term: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Trend: Weakly [3] 2. Core Views - **Glass**: Short - term pressure comes from the unclear implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies and the weak real - estate market. Although the policy factors are not clearly falsified, the demand is still not optimistic. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The problems of high production and high inventory persist. Without large - scale production cuts or continuous improvement in the glass market, the price will be under pressure. The market is expected to be in an oscillating or weakly - priced state, depending on the actual situation of the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Supply**: A 700 - ton/day production line in Dalian resumed ignition, with no water - draining or plate - guiding production lines. The weekly production remained stable. As of October 16, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) in China after excluding zombie lines, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th [2]. - **Demand**: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days, a 5.5% week - on - week decrease and a 21.2% year - on - year decrease. Some enterprises reported a decline in orders, and some were in a no - order state, while others had project orders that could last for 20 - 40 days. Enterprises with pre - stocked raw materials were mainly digesting their inventories [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a 2.31% week - on - week increase and an 11.14% year - on - year increase. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China, East China, and Central China increased, while those in South China decreased slightly [2]. - **Price and Profit**: Recent spot transactions were poor, and prices in some regions decreased. The basis strengthened as futures prices fell more than spot prices. The profit for petroleum - coke fuel was about 91 yuan/ton, - 80 yuan/ton for natural - gas fuel, and 139 yuan/ton for coal fuel [15][20][23]. - **Inventory and Downstream开工率**: Recent spot transactions weakened, and the market mainly accumulated inventory. The impact of seasonal factors in the fourth quarter has weakened, but the inventory - reduction situation in the fourth quarter continues [31][34]. Photovoltaic Glass - **Price and Profit**: Recent market transactions began to weaken, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [41][43]. - **Capacity and Inventory**: Market transactions weakened, and inventories in some regions began to rise. The sample inventory days were about 18.87 days, a 25.64% week - on - week increase [44][51]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Maintenance**: There were phased maintenance and production cuts in soda - ash enterprises. The production capacity utilization rate was 85%, down from 88.4% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 415,500 tons. Some enterprises had maintenance plans, and the total maintenance volume in the fourth quarter was generally low [55][56]. - **Price and Profit**: The quotations of futures - cash merchants decreased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the low - end price in the Shahe area was 1,150 yuan/ton. Enterprise quotations changed little. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 129 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 30 yuan/ton [72][77]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers was about 1.7 million tons. The inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 940,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [60][62][65].