1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating and Consolidating" for urea [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the sentiment of bulk commodities has weakened, the spot trading of urea has weakened, and the futures price has reached the policy pressure level, so the urea price will experience a short - term correction. However, due to the strong expectation of agricultural demand, the correction range is expected to be limited, and the price will still be strong in the medium - term. The demand - side shows that continuous procurement by reserves and the grassroots has led to a stage improvement in the urea fundamentals. Whether the driving force can continue to rise depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1830 yuan/ton, mainly the policy pressure line. Supported by the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak in 2026, the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the urea main contract (05 contract): the closing price decreased from 1801 yuan/ton to 1791 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; the settlement price decreased from 1805 yuan/ton to 1798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7; the trading volume increased from 144,515 lots to 156,787 lots, an increase of 12,272; the open interest decreased from 250,303 lots to 242,992 lots, a decrease of 7,311; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,355 tons; the trading volume increased from 521,622 ten - thousand yuan to 563,750 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 42,128 ten - thousand yuan; the basis in Shandong area increased from - 41 to - 21, an increase of 20; the basis of Fengxi - futures price (with a freight of about 100 yuan/ton) remained unchanged at - 151; the basis of Dongguang - futures price (the cheapest deliverable) remained unchanged at - 51; the spread between UR05 and UR09 decreased from 29 to 28, a decrease of 1 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin remained unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton; Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1320 yuan/ton; Shandong Ruixing increased from 1715 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, an increase of 30; Shanxi Fengxi remained unchanged at 1640 yuan/ton; Hebei Dongguang remained unchanged at 1740 yuan/ton; Jiangsu Linggu increased from 1790 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. Trader prices: in Shandong area, it increased from 1760 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; in Shanxi area, it increased from 1630 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. Supply - side indicators: the operating rate increased from 84.72% to 85.19%, an increase of 0.47%; the daily output increased from 199,480 tons to 200,580 tons, an increase of 1,100 [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. During this period, the domestic urea enterprise inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the urea market has fluctuated narrowly. The downstream compound fertilizer industrial demand has continued to advance, and the local agricultural demand has begun to increase. Some urea enterprises have achieved a balance between production and sales, and some have accelerated their shipment, leading to a decline in inventory. Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory include Anhui, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory include Hainan, Henan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coke will experience high - level fluctuations due to downstream accident disturbances, while coking coal will remain in a high - level oscillation state [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: For the JM2605 contract of coking coal, the closing price was 1,171 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 1.4%. For the J2605 contract of coke, the closing price was 1,717 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The trading volume of JM2605 was 1,088,719 lots, and the open interest was 497,710 lots, with a decrease of 8,127 lots. The trading volume of J2605 was 25,494 lots, the open interest was 38,727 lots, with an increase of 1,479 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable, with only a 3 - yuan/ton decrease in the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur prime coking coal was 1,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi increased by 16.5 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton, and the basis of J2605 in Shanxi's quasi - first - class coke delivered to the factory increased by 28 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton. The spread between JM2605 and JM2609 decreased by 3.5 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2605 and J2609 decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 79.5 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **CCI Index**: On January 16, the China Coal Resource Network's CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur prime coking coal (S0.7) was 1,608 yuan/ton, CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur prime coking coal (S1.3) was 1,260 yuan/ton, and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur prime coking coal (S1.6) was 1,249 yuan/ton, all unchanged [1] - **Imported Australian Coal**: Excessive rainfall in Australia has caused floods, affecting the production of some local coal mines. Two major secondary coking coal mines, Stanmore and Fitzroy, have issued force majeure notices. Coupled with the previous shutdowns of Curragh and Dendrobium mines, the supply of Australian coal has tightened, and coal prices are rising rapidly. The inquiry price of Goonyella has reached FOB231 US dollars, up 10 US dollars from last Friday's transaction, with a short - term upward trend expected [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal is also 0 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Caustic soda prices have been continuously declining due to cost reduction and the collapse of supply - demand. The near - term pressure persists, and the delivery pressure of the 02 and 03 contracts is still significant. The high - inventory situation makes the price - reduction trend difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the long - term contracts (04, 05 and subsequent contracts) may face a situation of rising costs and large - scale supply cuts, so short - selling these contracts requires caution [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 2006, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 660, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2063, and the basis is 57 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 15 yuan since January 18, with the ex - factory price at 630 yuan/ton [1][2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Demand Side**: The oversupply situation in the alumina market has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support [2]. - **Supply Side**: Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until losses reach the cash - flow cost [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. After the rapid increase in the spot price of propylene, the upward driving force has weakened [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content by Category 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on January 26th, the 2602 contract had a closing price of 4,202 with a daily decline of 2.12% and a night - session closing price of 4,217 with a 0.36% increase; the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,137 with a 2.27% decline and a night - session closing price of 4,147 with a 0.24% increase; the 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,379 with a 1.55% decline and a night - session closing price of 4,397 with a 0.41% increase. For propylene (PL), the 2602 contract had a closing price of 5,953 with a 1.20% decline and a night - session closing price of 5,981 with a 0.47% increase; the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,050 with a 1.18% decline and a night - session closing price of 6,084 with a 0.56% increase; the 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,089 with a 1.14% decline and a night - session closing price of 6,124 with a 0.57% increase [1]. - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the prices of Shandong civil, East China civil, South China civil were 4,440, 4,523, 5,035 respectively, with changes of 0, - 20, - 10 compared to the previous day; the prices of East China imported, South China imported were 4,933, 5,110 respectively, with changes of 23, - 25. For propylene, the prices in Shandong and East China were 6,145, 6,325 respectively, with changes of 35, 0 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rate**: As of January 16, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 73.07%, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the previous week; the alkylation start - up rate was 37.07%, unchanged; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.57%, unchanged [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume**: On January 18, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US was 19.6 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons compared to the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 9.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The global LPG shipment volume from the Middle East was 7.2 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons; the shipment volume to Asia was 7.2 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the interval [-2, 2], with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On January 16, 2026, the February CP paper - cargo price of propane was 527 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the price of butane was 515 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, the PDH phase II of Jinneng Technology Co., Ltd. will be under maintenance from January 13, 2026, to early February 2026; the PDH phase II of Wanhua Chemical (Penglai) Co., Ltd. started maintenance on January 14, 2026, with the end time to be determined [7]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans. For example, Rizhao (Zhonghai) will have the whole - plant maintenance starting from January 3, 2025, with the end time to be determined; Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. will have the whole - plant maintenance from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - LLDPE futures prices are in a downward trend, with the L2605 contract closing at 6695, down 1.33%. Spot trading has weakened, but the spot remains relatively firm. The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, and the short - term liquidity of the spot has tightened. The profit of downstream products has been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The external market quotation has risen, and the long - term import profit has opened [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer link has weakened, and the profit of the PE ethylene and ethane process has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded, but the downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the basis is weak. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The L2605 contract closed at 6695, down 1.33%, with a trading volume of 658,757 and an open - interest change of 3,981. The 05 - contract basis was - 95 (compared with - 135 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 28 (compared with - 29 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the north, it was 6,600 yuan/ton (down from 6,650 yuan/ton the previous day); in the east, it was 6,720 yuan/ton (down from 6,800 yuan/ton the previous day); in the south, it was 6,800 yuan/ton (down from 6,850 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. [Spot News] - The futures have continued to pull back. The upstream has pre - sold at low prices, and the middle and downstream have covered short positions recently. The inventory transfer is smooth, and the pressure is not high. The short - term liquidity of the spot has tightened, and the production of standard products has remained at a low level. The PE spot is still relatively firm, but the trading volume has decreased significantly after the market pull - back, and the strengthening of the basis is not as strong as before. The profit of downstream products has been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The external market quotation has risen, the long - term import profit has opened, and the import volume has increased. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the strength of the US dollar market [1]. [Market Condition Analysis] - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer link has weakened, and the profit of the PE ethylene and ethane process has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded, but the trading volume is concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the rigid demand for the packaging film industry has been maintained. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold goods has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, the factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the basis is weak. In terms of supply, Guangxi Petrochemical has gradually started production, the maintenance plan in January has decreased compared with the previous month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report maintains a judgment of range - bound movement for stock index futures [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 16, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures' current - month contracts showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.17%, IH fell 0.64%, IC rose 0.48%, and IM rose 0.31%. The closing price of CSI 300 was 4731.9, down 0.41%; the closing price of SSE 50 was 3079.8, down 0.83%; the closing price of CSI 500 was 8232.7, up 0.11%; the closing price of CSI 1000 was 8232.7, down 0.10% [1] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 8710 lots, IH increased by 6213 lots, IC decreased by 7691 lots, and IM decreased by 5426 lots. In terms of open interest, the total open interest of IF decreased by 11232 lots, IH increased by 60 lots, IC decreased by 12031 lots, and IM decreased by 16189 lots [1][2] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts of various stock index futures varied. For example, the basis of IF2601 was 5.13, and that of IF2602 was - 6.07 [1] - **Positions of the Top 20 Members**: The changes in the long and short positions of the top 20 members of different contracts of various stock index futures were different. For example, for IF2601, the long positions decreased by 14893, and the short positions decreased by 12296 [5] 2. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - **Policy - related**: The CSRC held the 2026 system work conference, emphasizing stability, starting the in - depth reform of the ChiNext, promoting the implementation of the STAR Market reform, and promoting the optimization plan for qualified overseas investors. The CSRC also solicited public opinions on the "Derivatives Transaction Supervision and Management Measures (Trial)". The State Council held an executive meeting to discuss consumption promotion, debt settlement, and other matters [7][8] - **Market Performance**: A - shares opened higher and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding the 4100 - point mark. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related sub - indices also showed certain fluctuations. The power grid equipment, power, and chip sectors were strong, while the AI application theme was weak [7]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is weak, and investors should beware of the recurrence of geopolitical risks [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively weak outlook [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 02 contract rose $0.25 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of + 0.42%, at $59.44 per barrel; ICE Brent futures 03 contract rose $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of + 0.58%, at $64.13 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed up $6.50, a gain of 1.48%, at 446.0 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The import arbitrage windows for various crude oil varieties such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc. are closed due to factors like sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and high freight costs [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The cross - Atlantic arbitrage space for Forties is limited, while Saudi's Arab Extra Light and Algeria's Saharan Blend have arbitrage opportunities in the US East [5] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The inflow of US light crude oil is economical, and the demand for US shale oil is strong. The arbitrage windows of some crude oil varieties are open, while the demand for high - sulfur crude oil is weak [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Crude oil varieties such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, etc. have no competitiveness in the Mediterranean market, with closed arbitrage windows due to supply surplus and high freight costs [7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most Middle Eastern, African, and North American crude oil varieties face challenges in the Asian market, with closed arbitrage windows. However, Ecuador's Napo has an open arbitrage window [8] Key Market News - European eight - nation joint statement: Trump's threat to impose tariffs may damage trans - Atlantic relations [10] - US Treasury Secretary: Trump is committed to ensuring the independence of the Federal Reserve and has four good candidates [10] - US Treasury Secretary: Greenland is crucial for US national security [10] - German military personnel secretly left Greenland, and Berlin has not provided an explanation [10] - French President Macron may request the EU to activate anti - coercion tools in response to US tariff threats [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and fundamental data of various energy and chemical products on January 19, 2026, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc. Each product has a specific trend judgment, such as "oscillating weakly", "high - level oscillation", etc. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][4] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 17,091 lots. The spot - futures basis and the difference between the mixed rubber and the futures main contract increased [4] - Industry news: In the first half of January, the tire industry's start - up rate increased, with semi - steel tires more significantly improved. However, the tire industry's shipment was dull, and inventory increased, especially for all - steel tires [5][6] Synthetic Rubber - Trend: High - level oscillation [2][7] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 13,086 lots. The basis increased by 275 [7] - Industry news: The inventory of butadiene in East China ports and domestic butadiene rubber increased. In the short term, butadiene rubber is in a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are slightly bullish [8][9] LLDPE - Trend: The low production of standard products continues, and spot trading weakens [2][10] - Fundamental data: The closing price of L2605 decreased by 1.33%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 135 to - 95 [10] - Market analysis: The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. The raw material price is strong, and the ethylene monomer link is weak. The medium - term supply and demand pressure still exists [10][11] PP - Trend: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and PP cost support is relatively strong [2][13] - Fundamental data: The closing price of PP2605 decreased by 1.46%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 172 to - 146 [13] - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [13][14] Caustic Soda - Trend: Near - term pressure continues [2][16] - Fundamental data: The price of the 03 - contract futures is 2006 yuan/ton, and the basis is 57 [16] - Market analysis: The cost and supply - demand of caustic soda have collapsed, and the near - term pressure is high. The far - term contracts need to be cautious about short - selling [16][17] Pulp - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][20] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract decreased by 74 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 145,287 lots [22] - Industry news: The decline in the futures market has affected the spot price, and the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the futures market's stop - falling and the downstream's replenishment willingness [23] Glass - Trend: The original sheet price is stable [2][25] - Fundamental data: The closing price of FG605 increased by 1.29%, and the 05 contract basis decreased from - 36 to - 53 [26] - Market analysis: The supply - side pressure is not large, the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand [26] Methanol - Trend: Oscillating [2][28] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 295,829 lots [29] - Market analysis: The methanol market is weak in the short term, and the port inventory is significantly reduced. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [31][32] Urea - Trend: Oscillating and consolidating [2][33] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 12,272 lots [34] - Industry news: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. In the short term, the price may回调 slightly, but the medium - term is still bullish [35][36] Styrene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][37] - Fundamental data: The price of styrene 2602 increased by 75, and the non - integrated profit increased by 61 [37] - Market news: The short - term export of styrene exceeds expectations, and the downstream replenishment cycle has started. The short - term is in high - level oscillation [38] Soda Ash - Trend: The spot market has little change [2][39] - Fundamental data: The closing price of SA2605 decreased by 0.75%, and the 05 contract basis is 8 [40] - Market news: The domestic soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations, the production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices. The short - term lacks substantial support [40] LPG and Propylene - Trend: Short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; the upward driver of propylene weakens after the spot price rises rapidly [2][43] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also have corresponding changes [43] - Market news: The 2 - month CP paper cargo price of propane decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [48][49] PVC - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][53] - Fundamental data: The 05 - contract futures price is 4803 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 223 [51] - Market analysis: The PVC market has a high - production, high - inventory structure, and the short - term supply and demand improvement is limited. The short - term做空 of chlor - alkali profit is the core logic [51][52] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Trend: Fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the upward trend pauses; low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds slightly at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][54] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also change slightly [54] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][56] - Fundamental data: The closing price of EC2602 increased by 0.50%, and the trading volume is 2,673 [56] - Market news: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have increased, and the future shipping schedule may be dynamically adjusted [56][63] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Trend: Short - fiber is in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee runs at a low level; bottle chip is in a short - term oscillation market [2][69] - Fundamental data: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also decrease [69] - Market news: The short - fiber futures oscillate at a low level, and the spot price is lowered. The bottle - chip factory lowers the price, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable [69][70] Offset Printing Paper - Trend: Close short positions opportunistically [2][72] - Fundamental data: The prices in the spot market are stable, and the futures prices decline. The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets increases [72] - Industry news: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the production is basically stable, and the new orders are limited [73][75] Pure Benzene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][77] - Fundamental data: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts increase slightly, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increases [77] - News: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu and Chinese ports increases, and the spot price of pure benzene in Shandong and East China decreases [78][79]

2026年01月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料成本松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：需求端小幅收紧，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：下游事故扰动，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需矛盾不突出，短期价格窄幅调整 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铁矿石基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 812. 0 | -1.0 | -0.12% | | | I 2605 ...

2026年01月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现货采买放量，关注供给端扰动 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注消息面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,350 | -5,400 | 2,260 | 8,500 | 26,66 ...