1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week (7.28 - 8.03), the spot market for live pigs showed weak performance. Piglet, live pig, and sow prices had different trends, with supply - side issues like group's ineffective end - month price increase and panicked retail farmers, and demand being suppressed by summer and high temperatures. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.32% week - on - week. In the futures market, prices were weakly volatile. The LH2509 contract had a certain price range, and the basis changed from negative to positive [2]. - Next week (8.04 - 8.10), the spot price of live pigs will be weakly volatile. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large due to factors such as the release of social inventory and the planned increase in enterprise slaughter. Demand will be limited in July - August due to high temperatures. The futures LH2509 contract may gradually return to the industrial logic, with the basis potentially turning to a contango structure. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (7.28 - 8.03) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 36.05 yuan/kg (last week: 37.5 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.43 yuan/kg (last week: 14.18 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1628 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.28KG, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease [2]. - **Futures Market**: The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 14410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14055 yuan/ton (last week: 14385 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 375 yuan/ton (last week: - 205 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (8.04 - 8.10) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will be weakly volatile. In August, the supply pressure is large, and demand is limited. The price may reach a new low this year [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, with the basis potentially turning to a contango structure. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stop - profit and stop - loss [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the basis was 375 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 375 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: In June, the pork output was 529.5 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; the pork import was 8.84 million tons, a 5.6% month - on - month decrease. The average weight this week was 124.28KG (last week: 124.68KG) [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The sentiment in the iron ore market has declined, leading to a downward adjustment in a volatile manner. The previous significant increase in the valuation of the black - sector under the support of theme trading and macro - policy expectations might have been an over - rise. Considering the relatively limited marginal changes in fundamentals, the recent decline in sentiment has caused the iron ore price to fall [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas shipments continued to recover, with the increase in the recent week mainly coming from Australia. The global shipment volume was 3200.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 91.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 181.9 million tons. Australian shipments were 1793.5 million tons, up 222.3 million tons week - on - week and 225.3 million tons year - on - year. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, down 23.5 million tons week - on - week and 35.1 million tons year - on - year [4][5]. - Among Australian shipments, FMG contributed the main increase in shipments to China, with a week - on - week increase of 84.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 170.4 million tons. Vale's global shipments decreased by 46.8 million tons week - on - week and 96.8 million tons year - on - year [4]. - In terms of non - mainstream mines, Peru's shipments recovered poorly. In the domestic market, the operating rate in North China declined significantly recently [20][27]. 3.2 Demand - The downstream iron - making production slightly decreased, with the 247 - enterprise hot metal output at 240.71 million tons, down 1.52 million tons week - on - week but up 1.10 million tons year - on - year. The output of the five major steel products still had a large year - on - year increase [4][30]. - The arrival of scrap steel increased recently, but the scrap steel price remained basically flat week - on - week. The scrap - iron price difference continued to narrow, but the narrowing slope slowed down [31]. 3.3 Contract Performance The price of the main 09 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 783.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 410,000 lots, a decrease of 119,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 lots [7]. 3.4 Spot Price Performance The spot price basically followed the futures market, showing a phased peak - to - trough decline. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) at Qingdao Port dropped from 882 yuan/ton last week to 870 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.5 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory had not arrived yet. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 13,657.9 million tons, down 132.5 million tons week - on - week and 1386.1 million tons year - on - year [4][35]. - Due to production - increasing demand and the decline in Indian shipments, the pellet inventory continued to be depleted [36]. 3.6 Downstream Profit The profit of finished steel products reached a high and then declined, including the spot profit of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts [38]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference The price of imported ores continued to decline, and the price difference between domestic and imported ores further widened [40]. 3.8 Futures Monthly Spread - The 09 - 01 monthly spread closed at 26 yuan/ton this week, narrowing week - on - week. - The 01 - 05 monthly spread closed at 23.5 yuan/ton this week, widening week - on - week [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The decline of the spot and futures prices was comparable this week, and the basis remained basically flat week - on - week [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global copper inventories are increasing, but downstream buyers are taking advantage of low prices, which supports copper prices. The price range is expected to be between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Trump's tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, increasing uncertainty. The weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp rise in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [7]. - The copper price driving logic is shifting from inventory - structural logic to fundamental logic. LME copper inventories are expected to continue to increase marginally, putting pressure on LME copper prices [7]. - For trading strategies, due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies, unilateral trading should be cautious. The obvious increase in LME inventories makes LME copper prices likely to be weak, which is favorable for reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: COMEX copper volatility has recovered, reaching around 65%, while the volatility of copper in other markets has declined [11]. - **Term Spread**: The C - structure of SHFE copper has strengthened, with the 08 - 09 spread improving from a discount of 80 yuan/ton on July 25th to a discount of 10 yuan/ton on August 1st. LME copper has a weak spot discount, with the 0 - 3 spread around a discount of 50 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has expanded [14][16]. - **Position**: SHFE copper positions have decreased by 27,900 lots to 482,600 lots, while LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper positions have increased [17]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: LME commercial short net positions have increased from 64,900 lots to 62,300 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased from 39,800 lots on July 22nd to 37,300 lots on July 29th [23]. - **Spot Premium**: Domestic copper spot premiums have strengthened, rising from a premium of 125 yuan/ton on July 25th to a premium of 175 yuan/ton on August 1st. Yangshan Port copper premiums have recovered, and Rotterdam copper premiums have remained stable at 167.5 US dollars/ton [27][29]. - **Inventory**: Global total copper inventories have increased from 537,800 tons on July 24th to 562,500 tons on July 31st. Domestic social inventories have increased to 119,300 tons but are at a low level. Bonded area inventories have decreased, while COMEX and LME copper inventories have increased [30][32]. - **Position - Inventory Ratio**: The position - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, weakening the logic of overseas spot tightness. The position - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 08 contract is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Copper concentrate imports have increased year - on - year. In June 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.3497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. Port inventories have increased, and processing fees have marginally recovered but are still at a low level [36][38]. - **Recycled Copper**: Recycled copper imports have increased year - on - year, with 183,200 tons imported in June, a year - on - year increase of 8.06%. Domestic production has decreased significantly. The scrap - refined copper price spread has weakened and is below the break - even point, and import losses have narrowed [39][44]. - **Blister Copper**: Blister copper imports have increased, with 68,500 tons imported in June, a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. Processing fees in July were at a low level [48]. - **Refined Copper**: Domestic refined copper production has continued to increase. In June, the output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. Imports have also increased, and the current import loss has narrowed [50][51]. 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In June, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased in the week of July 31st [54]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees have recovered but are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Copper tube processing fees have weakened but are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. Processing fees for copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened [57][59]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In June, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [60]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has recovered, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In June, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a slightly higher - than - neutral level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [62]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Domestic copper actual consumption has performed well, with cumulative consumption from January to June being 7.8135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69%. Apparent consumption from January to June was 7.822 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. Grid investment, home appliances, and the new energy industry are important supports for copper consumption, and grid investment has accelerated [67]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In June, domestic air - conditioner production was 18.782 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.16%. Domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.42% [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead supply hovers at a low level, and consumption has an improvement expectation, so the price is expected to be supported. The third - quarter supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge, forming a bottom support for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,735 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.30%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,775 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.24%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 1,977.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 2.13%. The LME lead spread, Shanghai 1 lead spot spread, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead all changed. The contango structure of Shanghai lead is narrowing [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 11 tons compared with the previous week, the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 29 tons, the social inventory increased by 1,600 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 9,050 tons. The cancellation ratio of LME lead was 26.84%, an increase of 0.02% compared with the previous week [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 47,634 lots, an increase of 871 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 76,338 lots, an increase of 3,011 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 was 8,929 lots, an increase of 3,574 lots; the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate production, import volume, and consumption volume are presented in the historical data. The import TC of lead concentrate is - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. The lead concentrate production and import volume in 2021 - 2025 are shown in the charts, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has historical data [28][29] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, which will affect the production of primary lead. The historical production and weekly operating rate data of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][35][36] - **Recycled Lead**: The recycled lead smelting profit is in a large loss. Smelting plants in Anhui, Guizhou and other regions have reduced production or controlled output. The historical production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, and profit - loss data of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6][34] - **Primary Lead By - products**: The price of 1 silver and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the historical production data of silver by - products [40] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is expected to recover. At the end of the month, some battery enterprises conduct inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, with the approaching of the consumption peak season in August, there is an expectation of improved consumption, and enterprises may increase raw material inventory on dips. The historical data of lead - acid battery operating rate, finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers, and export volume from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][51] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of automobiles and motorcycles [53] Import and Export - The net import volume, import volume, and export volume of refined lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the historical data of lead ingot import profit and loss [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, with the first round of coke price hikes initiated [3]. - Affected by position limits, the volatility of coal and coke prices may increase. The recent strong performance of coal and coke prices is related to market expectations and the contradiction of short - term supply - demand mismatch in the fundamentals. The transfer of cargo rights from top to bottom in the industrial chain is smooth, and the reshaping of coking coal valuation after the previous decline provides upward potential momentum. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of policy news, spot - futures behavior, and fundamentals on prices [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoints Supply - This week, some coal mines in the main production areas that were shut down or limited production due to factors such as working face replacement and maintenance resumed production, and the overall supply increased. The weekly output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 10.66 tons to 1236.27 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.74% to 86.01%. The overall customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the Ganqimaodu Port maintained a level of over 1000 vehicles [5]. Demand - Affected by the continuous decline of the futures market, the trading in the downstream and speculative sectors was relatively cautious, and the prices of high - priced resources in online auctions began to decline [5]. Inventory - Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and downstream continued to haul. Coal mine inventories were generally at a low level, and most had been cleared. Currently, the origin has shown a declining inventory trend for 7 consecutive weeks. The weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 17.37 tons to 226.85 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 22.72 tons to 192.97 tons [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 868.68 (+6.38); FW clean coal 444.06 (+3.09) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.81 (+0.21); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.97 (-0.19) | | Demand | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 106.15; Mine clean coal - 30.18; Independent coking +7.35; Steel mill coking +4.28; Port imported coking coal - 10.23; 288 Port +2 | MS total inventory - 2.82; Independent coking - 6.50; Steel mills - 13.29; Ports +16.97 | | Profit | Commodity coal 418 (+65) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 45 (+9) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1328; Lvliang Shenjiamao 894; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 973 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1460 | [7] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The supply data includes the production of raw coal and clean coal from coal washing plants and coal mines, as well as the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [9][10][11][13][14]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 14.18 tons to 194.71 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 13.86 tons to 118.77 tons [17]. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 282.11 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.23 tons [22]. - Coking plant inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are presented, including overall and regional data [25][27]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [30]. Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are shown, including overall and regional data [33][34][35][37]. - Output: The daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mills is presented [39][41]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of coke in coking plants is shown, including overall and historical data [43]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coke in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [44][46][47]. - Total inventory: The total inventory of coke from all samples is presented [49]. Demand - The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the daily output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises [51]. Profit - The profit data of coke includes the disk profit per ton of coke, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises, and the spot profit per ton of coke [54][55]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2509 and coking coal 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [59]. Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2509 and coke 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [62]. Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coal and coke are presented [66]. Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions are shown [69]. Coal and Coke Basis - On August 1st, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was - 68 (futures at a discount to the spot), and the basis of coke was 125 (futures at a premium to the spot) [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, with a potential for price corrections. It recommends short - selling industrial silicon on rallies, and a short - term short or intraday short strategy for polysilicon [1][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are affected by upstream factory复产 rhythms. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. Polysilicon is policy - driven, but there is a short - term correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth [6][7] Summary by Related Content Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures showed a weak oscillation this week, with the Friday closing price at 8,500 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week). Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, closing at 49,200 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot market had weak transactions [1] Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. Overall weekly production increased marginally. Yunnan's复产 was slow. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 million tons this week, social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, resulting in overall inventory reduction [2] - Demand: Downstream short - term demand was stable. Polysilicon's weekly production increased, boosting the purchase of industrial silicon. Organic silicon's weekly production also increased, but its terminal consumption had limited improvement. The aluminum alloy and export markets had no significant increase in demand [3] Polysilicon - Supply: Short - term weekly production continued to increase, with an estimated production of 120,000 - 130,000 tons in August. Factory inventory decreased due to speculative restocking by downstream buyers [3] - Demand: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, production increased slightly in August compared to July. However, the price increase transmission from upstream to downstream was not smooth, and the acceptance of component price increases by end - users was yet to be observed [5] Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the upstream factory复产 rhythm. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect market sentiment. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, with an expected price range of 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] Polysilicon - The short - term market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth. It is a policy - driven market, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips, while short - term shorting or intraday shorting may be more appropriate. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell industrial silicon on rallies; for polysilicon, short - term shorting or intraday shorting [7] - Inter - period: Consider entering a reverse spread position for PS2509/PS2511 based on futures warehouse receipt registration [8] - Hedging: Recommend upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories to sell for hedging [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. The market is trading the de - stocking scenario in the second half of the year. Malaysia is expected to continue the inventory accumulation trend in July, but it is conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons. The B50 rumor in Indonesia has a low correlation with the price increase. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supply, and palm oil is sensitive to this. The bean - palm spread is unlikely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [2][3]. - Soybean oil: The continuous good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation, and if this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Without a strong supply theme, the high price needs strong downstream demand to support it. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited the trading enthusiasm. The bean - palm spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Fundamental analysis: After the slight increase in inventory in the MPOB June report, the negative impact was digested, and the price rebounded. It is estimated that the production in July will still be difficult to reach 1.8 million tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 1.4 million tons. The demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high, and Malaysia will continue the inventory accumulation trend, but not exceed 2.2 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils is high, and the market is quite resistant to price drops. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the price increase. The production recovery may fall short of expectations, and the inventory will remain below 3 million tons throughout the year. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction in the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, which will drive up the international oil market, and palm oil may be affected [2]. - Market sentiment and trading opportunities: The market has different views on the palm oil production in Malaysia this year. If the production in July - August maintains a good yield per unit, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure in August - September. If the inventory in Malaysia does not exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have digested the high - point inventory. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room for correction, but attention should be paid to the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production in July - August [2][3]. - Sales area analysis: Except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil. The reconstruction of channel inventory is in progress. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons. The current fundamentals in the producing areas are not sufficient to stimulate China to open commercial profits, and the bean - palm spread is difficult to return to par [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean oil - International situation: Good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive up the price of US soybeans [4]. - Domestic situation: The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation. Although the domestic apparent demand for pick - up is poor, oil mills are actively exporting. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is potential for the spread between months and the Brazilian premium to rise, and soybean oil may benefit [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Futures prices: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,274 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,524 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 0.72%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 53.90 cents/pound, down 3.61% [8]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,707,492 lots, a decrease of 767,521 lots; the open interest was 394,141 lots, a decrease of 62,307 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 47,548 lots; the open interest was 499,756 lots, a decrease of 4,882 lots [8]. - Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 4.8%; the bean - palm 09 spread was 363 yuan/ton, up 19.7%. The palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 350%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 20%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 3.57% [8]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 570 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 3,000 lots, a decrease of 18,495 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, with no change [8]. 3.4 Oil Fundamental Information - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high [10][13]. - Export and import: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1.289727 million tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 330,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 640,000 tons [13][15]. - Other indicators: The POGO spread rebounded significantly, the import profit of Indian palm oil started to improve, and the basis of palm oil (South China) for 09 was - 20, while the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) rebounded [11][13][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated downward this week, reaching a low of 19,800 yuan/ton. The traditional off - season characteristics of the market are becoming more obvious, with downstream enterprises on high - temperature holidays, which drags down the orders of recycled aluminum. Although some small and medium - sized enterprises have reduced or stopped production, large factories maintain stable production. The cost support logic still exists, and it is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6]. - As of August 1st, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots (factory + social) increased by 0.32 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. The upstream waste aluminum supply is tight, and the downstream automotive sales in July, as a traditional off - season, face growth pressure [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - end: Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a historically medium - high level. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillatory trend [18]. Supply - end: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy weakened and showed certain seasonal patterns [26][31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, while the monthly operating rate increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [36][37]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased rapidly, while social inventory continued to accumulate. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [42][44]. - For recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided. For example, in terms of production, data from different periods are presented, and the inventory situation in factories is also shown with relevant proportion information [47][49]. Demand - end: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles has recovered, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In July 2024 (July 21 - July 27), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 467,000, a year - on - year increase of 4.71% and a month - on - month increase of 14.74%. However, in July, as a traditional automotive consumption off - season, there is pressure on automotive sales growth [6][55].