2026 年 01 月 30 日 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17185 | 1.12% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2027 | -0.05% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 87949 | 34036 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5927 | -1869 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59088 | -424 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 167867 | -3423 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 45 | 20 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -48.77 | -1.34 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new bond king, Gundlach, believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Powell's term ends. He bets there won't be further rate - cuts during Powell's tenure, while the market expects two 25 - basis - point cuts by the end of 2026. He also suggests allocating 30% - 40% to unhedged international stocks [2]. - During the UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China, China and the UK reached a series of positive outcomes, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership, establishing a high - level climate and nature partnership, resuming high - level security dialogue, and holding mechanism - based dialogues. China is considering unilateral visa - free policies for UK citizens and reducing the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5% [2][3]. - The trend strength of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively positive but not extremely strong trend [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Zinc Fundamentals - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 25,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the previous day, and the LME 3M zinc electronic trading closed at $3,375.5/ton, up 0.51% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 329,041 lots, an increase of 44,544 lots; its open interest was 114,501 lots, a decrease of 3,698 lots. The LME zinc trading volume was 14,007 lots, an increase of 2,658 lots, and its open interest was 234,070 lots, an increase of 913 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The LME CASH - 3M spread was -$32.06/ton, down $1.25/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 28,341 tons, an increase of 29 tons, while the LME zinc inventory was 110,375 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4053 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 26,540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 25,965 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) was 23,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1].

短纤：高位震荡偏强 20260130 瓶片：高位震荡偏强 20260130 2026 年 01 月 30 日 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6724 | 6658 | 66 | PF02-03 | -24 | -4 | -20 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6748 | 6662 | 86 | PF03-04 | -48 | -214 | 166 | | | 短纤2604 | 6796 | 6876 | -80 | PF主力基差 | -43 | 28 | ー71 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 221944 | 203213 | 18731 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 705 | 6. 690 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 187383 | 207716 | -20333 | 短纤产销率 | 55% | 6 ...

锰硅：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 2026 年 1 月 30 日 品 研 究 硅铁：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5736 | 104 | 228,839 | 138,668 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5704 | 98 | 85,542 | 98,499 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5896 | 94 | 99,780 | 87,455 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5926 | 94 | 256,191 | 362,400 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格: ...

碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 2026 年 1 月 30 日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 究 所 期货研究 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 164,820 | -1,460 | -3,960 | 1,600 | 34,300 | 83,020 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 521,334 | 48,111 | 56,937 | 90,078 | 92,618 | 480,658 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 402,347 | -8,638 | -34,339 | -41,595 | -174,68 ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾释放 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12680 | | -300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12500 | | -200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | -350 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11270 | | -15 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11695 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12370 | | -5 | | | | | 单 位 | ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 白糖：关注低基差期现机会 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 白糖趋势强度：0 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.7 | -0.01 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 46 | 31 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5320 | 40 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -12 | -1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5257 | 70 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 63 | -30 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：截至 1 月 15 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 22%。巴西 12 月出口 291 万吨，同比增 加 2.9%。中国 12 月进口食糖 58 万吨（+19 万吨）。关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政策变化，产区 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 29, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF rising 0.93%, IH rising 1.89%, IC falling 1.01%, and IM falling 0.59% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 16,902 lots, IH by 22,491 lots, IC by 33,619 lots, and IM by 53,901 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF decreased by 2,391 lots, IH increased by 9,827 lots, IC increased by 11,434 lots, and IM increased by 28,829 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The A - share market had mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.57%. The Hong Kong stock market also had mixed trends, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.51% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 1%. The US stock market also showed mixed trends, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Index falling 0.72% [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2602 is 4,774.6, up 0.93% with a basis of 20.73, trading volume of 29,602 lots (down 3,031 lots), and open interest of 39,478 lots (down 4,000 lots); IF2603 closed at 4,784, up 1.00% with a basis of 30.13, trading volume of 99,189 lots (up 14,802 lots), and open interest of 184,884 lots (down 956 lots); IF2606 closed at 4,771.6, up 1.14% with a basis of 17.73, trading volume of 22,864 lots (up 4,054 lots), and open interest of 75,918 lots (up 454 lots); IF2609 closed at 4,727, up 1.18% with a basis of - 26.87, trading volume of 8,149 lots (up 1,077 lots), and open interest of 23,277 lots (up 2,111 lots) [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2602 is 3,124.2, up 1.89% with a basis of 13.29, trading volume of 18,254 lots (up 4,018 lots), and open interest of 18,317 lots (up 840 lots); IH2603 closed at 3,130.4, up 1.95% with a basis of 19.49, trading volume of 51,786 lots (up 13,449 lots), and open interest of 73,669 lots (up 5,903 lots); IH2606 closed at 3,132.6, up 1.97% with a basis of 21.69, trading volume of 10,933 lots (up 3,244 lots), and open interest of 27,019 lots (up 1,475 lots); IH2609 closed at 3,108.6, up 1.99% with a basis of - 2.31, trading volume of 4,899 lots (up 1,780 lots), and open interest of 9,224 lots (up 1,609 lots) [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2602 is 8,531.2, down 1.01% with a basis of 13.36, trading volume of 29,632 lots (up 1,072 lots), and open interest of 46,369 lots (up 1,063 lots); IC2603 closed at 8,517.6, down 1.16% with a basis of - 0.24, trading volume of 115,687 lots (up 21,572 lots), and open interest of 170,962 lots (up 3,667 lots); IC2606 closed at 8,463, down 1.13% with a basis of - 54.84, trading volume of 43,590 lots (up 6,546 lots), and open interest of 100,860 lots (up 2,183 lots); IC2609 closed at 8,374, down 0.98% with a basis of - 143.8, trading volume of 15,369 lots (up 4,429 lots), and open interest of 35,641 lots (up 4,521 lots) [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2602 is 8,351.4, down 0.59% with a basis of 19.19, trading volume of 40,923 lots (up 7,560 lots), and open interest of 58,886 lots (up 2,143 lots); IM2603 closed at 8,329, down 0.53% with a basis of - 3.21, trading volume of 147,818 lots (up 33,074 lots), and open interest of 196,369 lots (up 29,074 lots); IM2606 closed at 8,199.6, down 0.46% with a basis of - 132.6, trading volume of 39,840 lots (up 8,223 lots), and open interest of 111,756 lots (up 4,566 lots); IM2609 closed at 8,048, down 0.21% with a basis of - 284.2, trading volume of 19,400 lots (up 5,044 lots), and open interest of 44,584 lots (up 6,089 lots) [1] 2. Top 20 Member Positions Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2601, long positions decreased by 2,881 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,926 lots with a net short - position change of 1,656 lots; for IF2602, long positions decreased by 585 lots with a net long - position change of - 584 lots, and short positions decreased by 649 lots; for IF2603, long positions increased by 1,136 lots, and short positions increased by 147 lots; for IF2606, long positions increased by 1,746 lots, and short positions increased by 1,772 lots [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2601, long positions increased by 972 lots with a net long - position change of 7,433 lots, and short positions increased by 945 lots; for IH2602, long positions increased by 4,744 lots, and short positions increased by 5,836 lots with a net short - position change of 7,976 lots; for IH2603, long positions increased by 1,717 lots, and short positions increased by 1,195 lots; IH2606 data was not公布 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2601, long positions increased by 1,255 lots with a net long - position change of 10,149 lots, and short positions increased by 1,112 lots; for IC2602, long positions increased by 3,732 lots, and short positions increased by 2,779 lots with a net short - position change of 10,535 lots; for IC2603, long positions increased by 1,555 lots, and short positions increased by 2,434 lots; for IC2606, long positions increased by 3,607 lots, and short positions increased by 4,210 lots [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2601, long positions increased by 1,471 lots, and short positions increased by 1,442 lots; for IM2602, long positions increased by 14,597 lots, and short positions increased by 15,131 lots; for IM2603, long positions increased by 4,268 lots with a net long - position change of 20,336 lots, and short positions increased by 3,819 lots with a net short - position change of 20,392 lots; IM2606 data was not公布 [5] 3. Trend Strength and Important Drivers - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 4,157.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%. The liquor sector, gold stocks, oil and gas stocks, real estate, and insurance stocks were active, while the semiconductor and AI computing power industry chains adjusted significantly. The total trading volume in the A - share market was 3.26 trillion yuan, compared with 2.99 trillion yuan the previous day. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.51% to 27,968.09 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.42%. The real estate stocks were strong, and the technology stocks generally fell. The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market was HK$331.994 billion, down from HK$361.523 billion the previous day. In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 49,071.56 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.13% to 6,969.01 points, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.72% to 23,685.12 points. Large - cap technology stocks had mixed trends [6][7]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 1、贵金属巨震。金价逼近 5600 美元历史高位后跳水，一度较日高暴跌近 9%，随后跌幅收窄。白银 创下 121 美元的历史新高后一度重挫超 12%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,249.12 | 5.30% | 1202.00 | -1.38% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,243.40 | 5.01% | 1195.83 | -3.40% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 5410.80 | -0.68% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 5377.16 | -0.72% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 30891 | 5.91% | 30358.00 | 2.10% | | | 白 ...

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：库存去化 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位高波 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 12 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...