集运指数（欧线）观点： 现货市场延续弱势，10空单酌情持有 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 需求 8月中旬起，市场整体货量呈温和下降趋势，观察后续回落速率。 33周市场运费中枢降至 3150 美元/FEU 附近，对应SCFIS指数在2200点左右。当前FAK运价下调速度偏中性，关注8月下旬至9月中旬跌价周期内运费下调速率 的变化。 观点 月度级别来看，9月大概率是供需双减格局，但当前统计到的运力下滑幅度或不及需求下滑幅度，预计基本面进一步承压，市场基本面交易逻辑维持逢高空。 海外宏观面，美国7月份非农就业人数增长低于预期，失业率小幅上升，市场风险偏好恶化，全球股市下跌，关注短期市场对"衰退"定价以及是否会与EC基 本面形成共振。 策略 单边：10空单酌情持有，上方压力位参考1450-1500点； 风险 关税变化；中东地缘局势迅速降温等。 估值 套利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rebounded by 0.1%, while London silver declined by 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [3]. - Gold prices initially faced downward pressure due to factors like tariff decisions and strong economic data but were supported by returning long - term funds. After the disappointing US non - farm payrolls data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [3]. - In the short term, the gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, but it's hard to predict a clear trend for gold and silver. Technical signals may be more effective than fundamental factors, and the prices generally remain in the previously predicted range - bound pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: Most gold and silver futures and spot prices showed fluctuations. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and its open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio rose to 37.8% [37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: Various spreads, including overseas and domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads, changed. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Open Interest) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [16][19]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [23][28]. - **Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs**: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver, including costs such as delivery fees, storage fees, and capital costs [31][32][33][34]. - **Deferred Fee Payment Directions**: This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold and silver was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - **Inventory and Open Interest - Inventory Ratios**: COMEX gold and silver inventories changed, and their registered warrant ratios also changed [37][39]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both declined slightly [44]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [50][52]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 86 to 92.5 [55]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was - 0.23%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 1.77% [57]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented [67][68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate, were provided [70][71][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not detailed in the content - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not detailed in the content - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report showed the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different times [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led the option strategies in the CSI 300 stock index options and SSE 50 ETF options, with weekly returns of 0.28% and 0.18% respectively. The strategy of selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position led the option strategies in the CSI 1000 stock index options, with a weekly return of 0.76% [1][6][11][16]. - From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark strategies in the CSI 300, SSE 50 ETF, and CSI 1000 stock index options markets performed best, with cumulative returns of 24.37%, 26.13%, and 30.9% respectively. Among the option strategies, the short - put strategy in the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETF options, and the protective put strategy in the CSI 1000 stock index options had relatively good performance [6][11][16]. - The three option hedging strategies (covered call, protective put, and collar) can effectively reduce the maximum drawdown of the benchmark in all three markets [7][11][16]. - The three option volatility trading strategies (straddle statistical arbitrage, short - straddle, and selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position) can effectively reduce the strategy's drawdown due to the additional threshold limit in the clustering dimension of implied volatility [7][11][16]. - In the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETF options, the short - straddle strategy is better than the strategy of selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position in terms of short - selling volatility; in the CSI 1000 stock index options, the short - straddle strategy has better returns [7][11][17]. - The bull call spread strategy has stronger returns than the benchmark in all three markets and can reduce the maximum drawdown because it can avoid tail risks [7][12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 CSI 300 Stock Index Option Strategy Review - Based on the CSI 300 index, futures, and options, eight common strategies were back - tested. This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.28% return. From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark performed best with a 24.37% cumulative return, and the short - put strategy led among the option strategies with a 9.79% cumulative return [5][6][7]. 3.1.2 SSE 50 ETF Option Strategy Review - Based on the 50 ETF and its options, eight common strategies were back - tested. This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.18% return. From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark performed best with a 26.13% cumulative return, and the short - put strategy led among the option strategies with a 19.44% cumulative return [8][11]. 3.1.3 CSI 1000 Stock Index Option Strategy Review - Based on the CSI 1000 index, futures, and options, eight common strategies were back - tested. This week, the strategy of selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position led with a 0.76% return. From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark performed best with a 30.9% cumulative return, and the protective put strategy had relatively good performance among the option strategies [13][16]. 3.2 Strategy Specific Descriptions 3.2.1 Covered Call Strategy - Purpose: To enhance returns, commonly used by overseas mutual funds. It can reduce holding costs and enhance stock - holding returns when the underlying asset is expected to rise slightly or not rise [18]. - Construction: For the SSE 50 ETF, buy 1 share of 50 ETF and sell 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money standard call option. For the CSI 300 stock index futures, buy 1 contract and sell 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money call option [18][21]. 3.2.2 Short - Put Strategy - Purpose: To obtain premium income when the market is stable or not expected to fall sharply [24]. - Construction: Sell at - the - money standard put options, with different settings for the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 stock index futures in terms of contract multiplier and fees [24][26]. 3.2.3 Protective Put Strategy - Purpose: To hedge risks when the market goes down while allowing investors to enjoy some upside returns [28]. - Construction: For the SSE 50 ETF, buy 1 share of 50 ETF and 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money standard put option. For the CSI 300 stock index futures, buy 1 contract and 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money put option [29][31]. 3.2.4 Collar Strategy - Purpose: A neutral strategy that combines the covered call and protective put strategies to provide tail - risk management while reducing hedging costs [34]. - Construction: For the SSE 50 ETF, hold 1 share of 50 ETF, buy 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money put option, and sell 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money call option. For the CSI 300 stock index futures, hold 1 contract, buy 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money put option, and sell 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money call option [34][37]. 3.2.5 Straddle Statistical Arbitrage Strategy - Purpose: To trade volatility by taking advantage of the mean - reversion relationship between implied volatility and historical volatility [40]. - Construction: Use a straddle strategy to go long or short on implied volatility. Make decisions based on the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility, and consider the clustering of implied volatility [41]. 3.2.6 Short - Straddle Strategy - Purpose: A strategy to short - sell volatility, aiming to profit from the decline in volatility [46]. - Construction: Sell at - the - money call and put options of the same month, adjust positions according to changes in the at - the - money level and the main contract, and consider the clustering of implied volatility [48][51]. 3.2.7 Strategy of Selling the Wide - Straddle at the Maximum Position - Purpose: To obtain time - value income by constructing a short - wide - straddle option portfolio based on the maximum position levels of call and put options [53]. - Construction: Sell standard call and put options at the maximum position levels, adjust positions according to changes in the maximum position levels and the main contract, and consider the clustering of implied volatility [55][57]. 3.2.8 Bull Call Spread Strategy - Purpose: A low - cost long - call strategy, suitable for when the underlying price is expected to rise moderately in the short term and implied volatility is low [60]. - Construction: Buy at - the - money call options and sell 10% (SSE 50 ETF) or 4% (CSI 300 stock index futures) out - of - the - money call options [61][63].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：再度下探支撑位 强弱分析：偏弱 价格区间：260000-265000元/吨 6月实际消费量环比下行 本周社会库存基本持平 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 吨 实际消费量 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 0 ...

价格&价差 02 国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：社库高企，裂解续弱 | 供应 | 国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为33.1%，环比增加4.3%。分析原因主要是虽然克石化以及盘锦北沥降产，但山东个别主力炼厂以及金陵石 化稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，国内沥青周度总产量为58.1万吨，环比增加1.2万吨，增幅2.1%；同比增加 | | --- | --- | | | 14.6万吨，增幅33.6%。1-7月累计产量为1870.4万吨，同比增加150.8万吨，增幅8.8%。 | | 需求 | 下游按需采购低价沥青，南北市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious. The market will gradually turn into a weak shock later, and the medium - term decline is not over. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations boosted the rebound, but now weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory lead to a market decline. With a relatively large basis and excessive premium of the forward 01 contract, short - chasing should be careful [2]. -纯碱: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious, but the downward pressure is not over. In the futures market, the previous crowded shorts led to a short - covering stampede. The increase in the futures market drove spot purchases, reducing inventory and raising prices. The strengthening basis in the short - term decline is not conducive to the futures price, and the delivery pressure on the 08 and 09 contracts is expected to be large. The future trend depends on the basis regression and the supply - side response [3]. Summary by Related Directory Glass Supply - As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase from the 24th. The daily loss of float glass was 40,450 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 284,950 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [6][7][8][10][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain - scale production reduction in the fourth quarter [13]. Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease from the same period last year. The deep - processing profits are still low, and the increase in the inventory days of reserved raw glass is higher than the increase in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.499 million heavy cases, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy cases from the previous period, a 3.87% decrease from the previous period and a 13.88% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 25.5 days, 1.1 days less than the previous period. The inventory in different regions decreased to varying degrees, but the decline rate slowed down due to the decrease in spot trading [2][35]. Price and Profit - The market price declined slightly this week, while the ex - factory price changed little. The price in Shahe was about 1,260 - 1,310 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in some large factories in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it was about 1,320 - 1,400 yuan/ton [18][22]. - The futures rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the month - spread was still weak. The profit with petroleum coke as fuel was about 137 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuel were about - 150 and 138 yuan/ton respectively [24][27]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market had good transactions, and the inventory continued to decline. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - Affected by the anti - involution policy, the recent supply decreased, the trading improved, and the inventory declined. As of early August, there were 408 national photovoltaic glass production lines in production, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons/day, a 1.33% decrease from the previous period and an 18.57% decrease from the same period last year. The sample inventory days were about 29.31 days, a 10.06% decrease from the previous period [47][48][52]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash enterprises had more device reductions, and the comprehensive supply decreased. The domestic soda ash output this period was 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from last week. Some enterprises were under maintenance or had reduced production loads, and there were also some planned maintenance and resumptions in the future [3][56]. - The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 80.27%, and the weekly output of heavy soda has reached 398,700 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production reduction efforts, or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive the recovery of glass demand and inventory [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The manufacturer's price changed little, while the quotes of futures - spot merchants decreased. The basis and month - spread: due to high production and high inventory, the near - month contracts were under pressure, but attention should be paid to the market potentially turning to positive spreads during the peak position - shifting period [69][72][74]. - The joint - soda production profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was 106 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - soda production profit in North China was 57 yuan/ton [77]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease from the previous period and a 67.08% increase from the same period last year. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should focus on compressing the profit position of styrene. Pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, while styrene supply is increasing and demand is decreasing. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly considered for short - selling. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation stage. The downstream operating rate of pure benzene is gradually recovering, and the industry is gradually entering the inventory replenishment stage. The short - term market still has support at 5600 - 5700. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and Styrene Market Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The planned maintenance loss in July was about 90,000 tons, which decreased to 40,000 tons in August, and the planned maintenance in September was 70,000 tons. New pure benzene plants will be put into operation intensively from July to September. [3] - Imported pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the US has stabilized and rebounded. The profit of STDP plants is negative, and the output rate is still decreasing. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The arbitrage window for styrene from the US to Europe has closed, and the incremental demand in August is expected to come from South America. [3] Demand - Styrene: There has been a large increase in supply recently. New plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical (680,000 tons, put into operation in early August) and Jilin Petrochemical (600,000 tons, put into operation on September 20) are about to be launched. [3] - Caprolactam: It was in a state of increasing load in July, and some plants plan to reduce the load after August. A new 300,000 - ton plant of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation in October. [3] - Phenol: Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton plant was put into operation in July, Jilin Petrochemical's plant will be put into operation in late August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to put it into operation in October. [3] - Aniline: Some plants such as Jinmao Aluminum and Chemical, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new plant has been put into operation and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. [3] - 3S hard plastics downstream of styrene: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - high and shows resilience. [3] Valuation - The reasonable valuation of pure benzene 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton. The current styrene futures price structure has turned to contango, and the largest structural opportunity this year is approaching the end. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies. - Inter - period: Temporarily take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage and reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage in the futures market. - Inter - commodity: Buy BZ03 and sell EB09, and take profit on the position of compressing profit temporarily. [3] 3.2 Pure Benzene Delivery Standards - The overall delivery settings are uniform. The benchmark delivery areas are Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Different regions have different premium and discount settings. [5] Production Capacity - The production capacity of pure benzene before 2005 was 3.26 million tons, accounting for 12%. [20] Market Situation in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the price continued to decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but it gradually entered the de - stocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. [30] 3.3 Styrene Production Capacity - The production capacity of styrene before 2005 was 1.12 million tons, accounting for 5%. [21] Market Situation in 2025 - The global styrene output contracted in the first half of 2025. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high inventory, medium - level profit (recently compressed). [70][76] Future Outlook - Pay attention to the issue of the price ratio between aromatics and olefins. Styrene in the far - month should not have profit. [69][81] 3.4 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene Phenol - It is expected that the apparent demand for phenol in 2025 will be 6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [52] Caprolactam - It is expected that the apparent demand for caprolactam in 2025 will be about 7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [55] Adipic Acid - The annual apparent demand for adipic acid is about 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. [57] Aniline - It is expected that the apparent demand for aniline in 2025 will remain at 3.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. [61]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 上游观点汇总 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 03 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：震荡偏弱 供应 基于加工费和库存压力不大，工厂保持高开工，本周工厂平均开工率90.3%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工94.7%，未来预计维持或小幅提升。关注反 内卷措施对上游可能的影响。"反内卷" 对短纤的影响集中在可能的成本抬升（如MEG），短纤老装置虽然较多，但部分经过锅炉改造，此 外新老装置成本差距的绝对值偏小，生产企业以民营为主，开工仍主要考虑经济性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term with narrowing downside space. The butadiene market is likely to experience a short - term callback and then enter a weak pattern in the medium - term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Supply**: High - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization continued to increase this week. Next week, production is expected to decline slightly due to planned shutdowns and potential restarts [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to be slightly adjusted. Substitute demand remains high, and overall demand maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased while sample trading enterprise inventory increased slightly [4]. - **View**: In the short - term, butadiene rubber futures prices are expected to correct from high levels and enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium - term. The theoretical valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is bearish. For cross - period trading, there is no recommendation. For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is expected to shrink in the short - term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: Domestic butadiene supply remained stable this week, with production at 103,400 tons and capacity utilization at 69.97% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand from synthetic rubber for butadiene remains high, while the demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS maintains rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic butadiene sample inventory dropped to a low for the year, with port inventory significantly reduced due to weather - related factors [5]. - **View**: In the short - term, butadiene spot prices are expected to correct, but the decline is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material end. Its capacity is in a state of continuous expansion, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries [8][10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: Production and capacity utilization have shown changes. Costs, profits, and import - export volumes also have their own trends. Inventory levels have decreased [37][40][47]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber**: The demand from the tire industry is related to factors such as inventory and capacity utilization [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the methanol industry is one of oscillatory pressure [2][4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the methanol market is expected to be oscillatory and weak, while in the medium - term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. The short - term weakness is due to the departure of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, which may increase supply pressure in the spot market. In the medium - term, anti - involution policies and a neutral fundamental situation will support an oscillatory trend [4] - Unilateral trading: Short - term unilateral weakness, medium - term oscillation; with upper pressure at 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton and lower support at 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4] - Strategy: The 9 - 1 spread is still in a reverse arbitrage pattern but the downside space is narrowing. It may shift to a positive arbitrage in mid - to - early August when the main contract changes to 01. The spread between MA and PP has entered an oscillatory pattern [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025 [7][8][9][10][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] Supply - New capacity: In 2024, the total expansion of methanol capacity was 400 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 840 tons, with most new projects located in the northwest region [24] - Maintenance: A list of domestic methanol plant maintenance shows various plants in different regions with different start and end times, some of which are long - term shutdowns [26] - Production and capacity utilization: Weekly and daily data charts show the production and capacity utilization of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including production by process and regional capacity utilization [27][29][30][31][33][34] - Import - related: Charts display the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [37][38][39][40] - Cost and profit: Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different production processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [42][43][44][46][47][48][49] Demand - Downstream capacity utilization: Charts present the capacity utilization of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and other downstream industries in China from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][56][57] - Downstream profit: Charts show the production profit of methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [60][61][63][64][65][66] - Procurement volume: Charts display the procurement volume of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [68][69][70][71][73][74][75][76] - Raw material inventory: Charts show the raw material inventory of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [78][79][80][81] Inventory - Factory inventory: Charts show the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [83][84][85][86] - Port inventory: Charts show the weekly port inventory of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [89][90][91]