1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and fundamental data of various energy and chemical products on January 19, 2026, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc. Each product has a specific trend judgment, such as "oscillating weakly", "high - level oscillation", etc. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][4] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 17,091 lots. The spot - futures basis and the difference between the mixed rubber and the futures main contract increased [4] - Industry news: In the first half of January, the tire industry's start - up rate increased, with semi - steel tires more significantly improved. However, the tire industry's shipment was dull, and inventory increased, especially for all - steel tires [5][6] Synthetic Rubber - Trend: High - level oscillation [2][7] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 13,086 lots. The basis increased by 275 [7] - Industry news: The inventory of butadiene in East China ports and domestic butadiene rubber increased. In the short term, butadiene rubber is in a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are slightly bullish [8][9] LLDPE - Trend: The low production of standard products continues, and spot trading weakens [2][10] - Fundamental data: The closing price of L2605 decreased by 1.33%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 135 to - 95 [10] - Market analysis: The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. The raw material price is strong, and the ethylene monomer link is weak. The medium - term supply and demand pressure still exists [10][11] PP - Trend: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and PP cost support is relatively strong [2][13] - Fundamental data: The closing price of PP2605 decreased by 1.46%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 172 to - 146 [13] - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [13][14] Caustic Soda - Trend: Near - term pressure continues [2][16] - Fundamental data: The price of the 03 - contract futures is 2006 yuan/ton, and the basis is 57 [16] - Market analysis: The cost and supply - demand of caustic soda have collapsed, and the near - term pressure is high. The far - term contracts need to be cautious about short - selling [16][17] Pulp - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][20] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract decreased by 74 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 145,287 lots [22] - Industry news: The decline in the futures market has affected the spot price, and the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the futures market's stop - falling and the downstream's replenishment willingness [23] Glass - Trend: The original sheet price is stable [2][25] - Fundamental data: The closing price of FG605 increased by 1.29%, and the 05 contract basis decreased from - 36 to - 53 [26] - Market analysis: The supply - side pressure is not large, the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand [26] Methanol - Trend: Oscillating [2][28] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 295,829 lots [29] - Market analysis: The methanol market is weak in the short term, and the port inventory is significantly reduced. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [31][32] Urea - Trend: Oscillating and consolidating [2][33] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 12,272 lots [34] - Industry news: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. In the short term, the price may回调 slightly, but the medium - term is still bullish [35][36] Styrene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][37] - Fundamental data: The price of styrene 2602 increased by 75, and the non - integrated profit increased by 61 [37] - Market news: The short - term export of styrene exceeds expectations, and the downstream replenishment cycle has started. The short - term is in high - level oscillation [38] Soda Ash - Trend: The spot market has little change [2][39] - Fundamental data: The closing price of SA2605 decreased by 0.75%, and the 05 contract basis is 8 [40] - Market news: The domestic soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations, the production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices. The short - term lacks substantial support [40] LPG and Propylene - Trend: Short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; the upward driver of propylene weakens after the spot price rises rapidly [2][43] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also have corresponding changes [43] - Market news: The 2 - month CP paper cargo price of propane decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [48][49] PVC - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][53] - Fundamental data: The 05 - contract futures price is 4803 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 223 [51] - Market analysis: The PVC market has a high - production, high - inventory structure, and the short - term supply and demand improvement is limited. The short - term做空 of chlor - alkali profit is the core logic [51][52] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Trend: Fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the upward trend pauses; low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds slightly at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][54] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also change slightly [54] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][56] - Fundamental data: The closing price of EC2602 increased by 0.50%, and the trading volume is 2,673 [56] - Market news: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have increased, and the future shipping schedule may be dynamically adjusted [56][63] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Trend: Short - fiber is in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee runs at a low level; bottle chip is in a short - term oscillation market [2][69] - Fundamental data: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also decrease [69] - Market news: The short - fiber futures oscillate at a low level, and the spot price is lowered. The bottle - chip factory lowers the price, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable [69][70] Offset Printing Paper - Trend: Close short positions opportunistically [2][72] - Fundamental data: The prices in the spot market are stable, and the futures prices decline. The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets increases [72] - Industry news: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the production is basically stable, and the new orders are limited [73][75] Pure Benzene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][77] - Fundamental data: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts increase slightly, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increases [77] - News: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu and Chinese ports increases, and the spot price of pure benzene in Shandong and East China decreases [78][79]

2026年01月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料成本松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：需求端小幅收紧，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：下游事故扰动，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需矛盾不突出，短期价格窄幅调整 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铁矿石基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 812. 0 | -1.0 | -0.12% | | | I 2605 ...

2026年01月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现货采买放量，关注供给端扰动 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高布空为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注消息面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,350 | -5,400 | 2,260 | 8,500 | 26,66 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the market rose and then fell, reaching a new high in this rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1%. The rapid rise brought policy cooling pressure, with the three major exchanges increasing the margin ratio for margin trading and the CSRC emphasizing prevention of large market fluctuations. Although the central bank mentioned a structural interest rate cut, the overall space for full - scale easing is limited [1]. - In the later stage, the policy aims to consolidate the stable and positive market trend while preventing large fluctuations. With the "Spring Rally" sentiment intensifying and the upward slope of the market steepening, the market is expected to enter a stronger - side oscillatory state, ending the previous unilateral upward trend. If the market rises too fast again, more policy cooling measures will be introduced. Given the current fundamental background, a significant decline is unlikely [2]. - Factors to watch include December economic data in China, local two - sessions, the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, and the Fed's policy direction [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [3]. Trend Strategy - Adopt a strategy of being more bullish on pullbacks. The core operating range of the IF2601 main contract is expected to be between 4595 and 4832 points; for the IH2601 main contract, it is between 3004 and 3143 points; for the IC2601 main contract, it is between 7992 and 8527 points; and for the IM2601 main contract, it is between 7953 and 8489 points [3]. Variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Nikkei 225 rose 3.84%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose 3.70%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.34%, while the NASDAQ dropped 0.66% and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45% [7]. - Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase. The CSI 1000 has risen 36.4%, the CSI 500 has risen 40.7%, etc. Last week, the major domestic indices also showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.45% [7]. - In the CSI 500 index, most industries rose last week, with the information industry rising 6.29% and the raw material industry rising 2.71%. In the CSI 300 index, industries showed mixed performance, with the information industry rising 2.88% and the consumer industry dropping 2.73% [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest increase, and the IM main contract had the largest amplitude [16]. - The trading volume of stock index futures declined, and the open interest first rose and then declined [16]. - The report also presented the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of stock index futures main contracts [16]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of January 9, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.14 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.42 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 12.01 times. The P/E ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 33.94 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 46.78 times [17][18]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The report showed the changes in the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline in the capital interest rate last week, and the net investment of the central bank [20][22].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：站在新的起涨点；白银：做多金银比 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银中行 价格区间：985-1100元/克、20300-23500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.61%，伦敦银回升16.2%。金银比从前周的57回落至50，10年期TIPS回升至1.91%，10年期名义利率回落至4.24%（2年期 3.59%），美元指数录得99.37。 ◆ 周五，原本美联储主席大热人选哈塞特被特朗普提及希望留任白宫，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）异军突起， 周四与当选总统特朗普的面试表现"相当顺利"，成为执掌美联储权杖的领跑者之一。他主张货币宽松、赤字无忧、通 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak oscillation. For the 2604 contract, consider rolling short - selling, and for the 2610 contract, hold short positions as appropriate [1][4][9] - Although there is marginal positive news about the rush - export of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the European Line during the off - season from March to April [9] Summary by Directory Overview - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. For the 2604 contract, consider rolling short - selling, and for the 2610 contract, hold short positions as appropriate [4] - In January and February, the sailings of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (January 26 - February 1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (February 2 - March 1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Considering the sailings from January 26 to March 1 as a whole, the capacity remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 284,000 TEU/week last week to 295,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. The Spring Festival blank sailings are mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March [4] Supply - By reviewing the capacity distribution in the 5 weeks before and after the Spring Festival from 2024 to 2026, it is found that the post - festival capacity growth rate is significantly higher than that before and during the festival, indicating greater post - festival capacity pressure. In 2026, the average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival were 306,000, 234,000, and 322,000 TEU respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% [5] - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East may recur. Maersk plans to structurally resume the operation of the MECL route connecting the US East Coast and India/Middle East at the end of January and has formulated contingency plans. There is still a possibility that shipping companies will selectively resume sailing in the Red Sea after the Chinese Spring Festival until the second quarter [5] Demand - Due to the adjustment of the export VAT rebate policy, the rush - export of photovoltaic components may lead to a transfer of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transportation demand on the European Line from Q2 to Q1, and a total of 40,000 - 70,000 TEU of transportation demand on the Europe - Mediterranean route may be advanced. The concentrated rush - export may occur from the end of February to March [7] - The probability of a full - load situation at the end of February and the shipping companies announcing a General Rate Increase (GRI) on March 1 is relatively low. The rush - export of photovoltaic products is difficult to change the pattern of over - capacity at the monthly level, and the probability of continuous full - load is almost zero. The advance of some Q2 transportation demand to Q1 is negative for the transportation demand after April [7] Valuation - The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2,600/FEU. For the 2602 contract, assuming that the market center drops by a total of $700/FEU in the 5th and 6th weeks, considering the impact of sailing delays and cargo rejection, the valuation of the 2602 contract may be around 1,700 points, and it is expected to fluctuate with a narrow reduction in positions in the future [8] Viewpoints - For the 2604 contract, although there is marginal positive news about the rush - export of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the European Line during the off - season from March to April. In the next 1 - 2 months, consider rolling short - selling the 2604 contract, with the upper resistance level referring to the range of 1,200 - 1,250 points [9] - For the 2610 contract, last week's morning report suggested paying attention to the opportunity to establish short - position bottom positions, with the upper resistance level referring to the settlement price of 1,161 points for the 2510 contract. Affected by Maersk's MECL route resumption announcement, the expectation of resumption has increased, but the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran still need to be monitored. Hold short positions as appropriate [9] - Strategy: For single - side trading, roll short - sell the 2604 contract and hold short positions of the 2610 contract as appropriate; for arbitrage, there is currently no opportunity [9] Revision Rules of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract - According to the announcement of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, the contract months are adjusted from "February, April, June, August, October, December" to "the nearest 1 - 6 consecutive months (excluding February) and the following two quarterly months", and the minimum price change is adjusted from "0.1 point" to "0.5 point" [20] - The adjustment of contract months will be implemented from February 10, 2026 (Tuesday), with the addition of EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 contracts. Considering the switch of the main contract, EC2603 will not be added. On March 31, 2026 (Tuesday), EC2703 will be added, and the back - end months will be adjusted according to the contract regulations [20] - The impact on the futures market: The derived arbitrage trading may be more diverse. In addition to the conventional arbitrage opportunities between bi - monthly contracts, pay attention to potential positive arbitrage opportunities such as 8 - 9 and 9 - 10 [20] Price - The SCFIS index on January 19 mainly reflects the prices of sailings departing in the 3rd week. It is expected that the SCFIS index on the 19th will be flat or lower than that on the 12th, with a subjective prediction in the range of 1,850 - 1,950 points [28] - The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2,600/FEU. The prices of major shipping companies show a downward trend [29][32] Demand Side - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, in 2025, the container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) showed certain changes compared with previous years. The trade volume in some months increased year - on - year, while in others it decreased [43] - From the perspective of Asia's exports to North America, in 2025, the container trade volume between Asia and North America also showed different trends in each month compared with previous years, with some months showing growth and others showing decline [45] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - There are geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as Iran's warning and Houthi armed forces' threats. Maersk plans to resume the MECL route at the end of January, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the Gaza conflict are ongoing [50] European Line Sailing Schedule - In January and February, the sailings of the AEU7 and FE4 routes were delayed. The capacity statistics were adjusted accordingly, with an increase of 2 blank sailings in the 5th week and a decrease of 2 blank sailings in February. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending, and the weekly average capacity increased [52] Capacity Comparison - By comparing the capacity before and after the Spring Festival from 2024 to 2026, it is found that the supply pressure in the 3 - 5 weeks after the Spring Festival may be greater than that before the Spring Festival [55] Turnover Efficiency - Information on the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, and the congestion situation in various regions and ports is provided, which helps to understand the turnover efficiency of the shipping market [67][71][73] Static Capacity - Information on the delivery of new container ships of the top ten shipping companies in the past and future is provided, including the delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships [85][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Plastic Part - The supply is expected to increase in January, with some production shifting back to standard products. The futures and spot markets may not continue to resonate. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [5] Polypropylene Part - The valuation has increased, leading some devices to return. The PDH has concentrated maintenance in the first quarter. The market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is also recommended to take a short - position on rebounds in the single - side trading, and not recommend cross - period and cross - variety trading for now [82][84] 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures prices, spot prices, and various price spreads have changed. The basis has strengthened, and the 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened. The import window has been repaired, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit has been repaired, with significant recent repairs in ethane and externally - purchased ethylene profits [9][13][23][34] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base has increased, with a significant increase in total supply. The current maintenance plan in Q1 is not yet available, and the supply is expected to remain loose. The import volume may remain relatively high at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year [38][40][49] Demand & Inventory - The overall downstream demand is showing signs of decline. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, but the mid - stream inventory reduction has been slow [59][65][77] Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Futures and spot prices, as well as various price spreads, have fluctuated. The basis has strengthened slightly, and the month - spread has fluctuated. The import window is approaching to open, and the non - standard price spread has changed. The overall profit is compressed [88][93][100][120] Supply - From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, the production capacity has increased significantly. The start - up rate has declined recently, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period last year. The subsequent maintenance scale is considerable, and the supply is expected to decrease [128][129][140] Demand & Inventory - The downstream demand is mixed. The inventory has shifted from the upstream to the mid - stream, and the oil - based inventory has been significantly reduced [153][160][166]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The equity market sentiment is temporarily stable, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol follows the index correction. In the medium term, methanol is gradually entering a de - stocking pattern, and the fundamentals may support the overall price of methanol. Therefore, the upward and downward space of methanol is relatively limited [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are neutral, and the production profit remains at a low level. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. - Regarding trading strategies, in the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread may present a positive spread pattern, and the spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - Production: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The planned maintenance and production cuts next week involve more production capacity than the recovery, which may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization and production [4]. - Inventory: As of January 14th, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. The visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. The提货 volume in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while the提货 volume in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In Guangdong, there were small amounts of imports and domestic arrivals during the week, and the提货 volume in the main storage areas was stable, resulting in inventory reduction. In Fujian, with the supply from imports and domestic trade and the downstream consumption on demand, the inventory also decreased [4]. - Demand - Olefins: Next week, MTO plants will operate stably with no obvious change plans, and the weekly average operating rate will decline [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, after Chongqing Wanlilai starts production next week, it plans to produce products, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase compared with the previous period. For glacial acetic acid, Jiantao is expected to resume normal operation next week, and other factories have no planned maintenance, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, Liuyang Jingang plans to restart next week, and the supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. For chlorides, due to the production reduction of plants in the Shandong region in the next period, the overall capacity utilization rate may decline, and attention should be paid to the recovery of Jinling and Luxi plants [4]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of 11:30 on January 14th, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [4]. Price and Spread - The content provides multiple price - related graphs, including the basis, month - spread, and warehouse receipt of methanol in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange from 2020 to 2026; domestic spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Lunan region, and Taicang; international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB; and port - inland price differences such as Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing, Taicang - Henan, and Taicang - Lunan [7][12][16][20]. Supply - Production and Operating Rate - Overall: The content shows the daily production and capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol from 2018 to 2026, as well as the daily capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol [25][26]. - By Process: It shows the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2026, including coke - oven gas - to - methanol, coal - single - methanol, natural - gas - to - methanol, and coal - co - methanol [28][29]. - By Region: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2026, including the northwest, southwest, east, and central regions [31][32][33]. - Import - related: It includes the monthly import volume of Chinese methanol from 2020 to 2025, the daily import cost, weekly arrival volume, and daily import profit from 2020 to 2026 [35][36][37][38]. - Cost: It shows the daily production cost of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [39][40][41]. - Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [43][44][45]. Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and MTBE export - oriented plants in China from 2018 to 2026 [47][48][51][52]. - Downstream Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol - to - olefins in the east and Shandong regions, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu from 2020 to 2026 [55][56][59][60][61]. - Procurement Volume - MTO: It shows the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in China, the east, northwest, and central regions from 2020 to 2026 [63][64][65][66]. - Traditional Downstream: It shows the procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the north, east, and southwest regions from 2020 to 2026 [68][69][70][71]. - Traditional Downstream Inventory: It shows the inventory of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the northwest, Shandong, and south - China regions from 2020 to 2026 [73][74][75][76]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the weekly factory inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in the east, northwest, and Inner Mongolia regions from 2018 to 2026 [78][79][80][81]. - Port Inventory: It shows the weekly port inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2026 [83][84][85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: - **Chinese Purchases**: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Farmer and Market Sentiment**: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical shocks are frequent, testing the low volatility of cross - asset classes. Geopolitics may be the key short - term market driver, and there is a risk of rising cross - asset volatility. Attention should be paid to non - eurozone safe - haven assets [11][12]. - The IEEPA ruling is still pending. If the US Supreme Court rules it unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund, causing short - term tariff policy chaos, and the White House may seek an alternative legal framework [14][17]. - Changes in the expected FED chairperson have led the 10 - year US Treasury yield to break through the key level of 4.20%, with the pressure level raised to 4.20 - 4.3% [18][20]. - US fundamental data are relatively comfortable and in line with expectations. Retail sales in November were better than expected, and the CPI data in December were in line with expectations, with core CPI lower than expected [23][24]. - In the FICC precious metals market, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, while silver is at risk of volatility. It is recommended to increase gold allocation and consider taking profit on silver long positions [25][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country government bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.22% on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 5.76bp [43][44]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [51]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds of Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Spreads**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills and medium - long - term Treasuries, as well as the bid/offer ratios of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [69][73]. Exchange Rate Market - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.3930 on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.26%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [78][80]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Government Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between US Treasuries and G7 countries, as well as the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [81]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the SLF and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [90]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, import and export year - on - year data, and high - frequency indicators such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasuries [95][103]. Commodities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil had a weekly increase of 3.45%, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% [121][123]. - **Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the downstream/upstream of the energy and black metal industrial chains [125][131]. - **Mapping of Commodity Prices in the Equity and Bond Markets**: Examine the relative strength of commodities compared to global equity and bond indices and the rolling correlation between upstream Bloomberg commodities and downstream equity cyclical sectors [134][137]. - **High - Frequency Data of Macro Commodities**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventory changes [141][144]. Overseas Equities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Global Major Indices and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.38%, and the Nikkei 225 index increased by 5.51%. Among the S&P industry indices, the real estate index increased by 3.89%, while the financial index decreased by 2.33% [149][153]. - **Week - to - Week Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style decreased by 1.52%, and the US small - cap value style increased by 1.34%. The PE ratios and EPS growth rates of major indices are also provided [156][160]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices**: Track the quarterly EPS YoY trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices [166]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio [173]. - **Tracking Factors**: Track the YTW total return performance of US stock market factors [183]. Cryptocurrencies - Track BTC, ETH, and related derivative assets, including the performance of Bitcoin futures main contracts, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [186][190]. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - Track high - frequency data of the yen carry - trade system, such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3M volatility [194][196]. 2. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, US GDP and its sectoral breakdowns, and economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China [204][208]. Financial Conditions - Analyze the Fed's balance sheet and its weekly changes, the balance sheets of G4 central banks as a percentage of GDP, and the US and Eurozone financial conditions indices [212][215]. Fiscal Policy - Examine the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue breakdowns, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP [220][225]. Employment Market - Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, ADP data, and job vacancy numbers [229][230]. Inflation Indicators - Analyze the breakdown of US inflation YoY data, the trends of headline and core inflation, and inflation expectations [237][242]. Consumption Demand - Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and personal income and savings [245][252]. Cycle Positioning - Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cyclical indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator YoY, ISM PMI, and US manufacturing surveys [267][272]. Credit Cycle - Track US credit surveys, valuations, and high - frequency data in the credit market, such as the SLOOS corporate credit survey and S&P index valuations [280][282]. Transportation and Logistics - Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping frequencies, port freight data, and aviation passenger numbers [284][297]. Real Estate Market - Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indices, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [302][308]. Eurozone - Provide a macro overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength analysis of the Eurozone, including deficit rates of peripheral countries, inflation trends, and retail sales data [311][331].