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国泰君安期货研究周报-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].
国泰君安期货·能源化工:石油沥青周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:44
Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].
烧碱:远月估值受压制,PVC:趋势偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:32
烧碱:远月估值受压制 PVC:趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020481 日期:2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点:远月估值受压制 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为81.4%,较上周环比-2.6%。分区域来看,西北、华北、华东、华南、东北负荷均有下 | | --- | --- | | | 滑,其中西北-2.6%至89.2%;华北-1.5%至75.2%,华东-2.9%至80.7%,东北-22.7%至73.0%,其中山东-2.0%至83.1%。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面,由于高产量、高库存的格局,未来利润将被持续压缩。目前企业生产意愿较高,氧化铝开工产能保持较高水平,但区域性供 | | | 需错配的问题未 ...
聚酯数据周报-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to enter a short - term volatile market with expanding profits, and it is recommended to hold long PXN positions [3]. - PTA shows a weak trend, and it is advisable to hold long PTA and short PX positions and 1 - 5 backwardation [4]. - MEG has a weak trend due to cost collapse, and it is recommended to reduce short positions below 4000 yuan/ton and maintain 1 - 5 backwardation [5]. - The polyester industry's consumption is expected to improve as the weather turns cold and with the marginal increase in Double Eleven orders, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PXN is at 246 dollars/ton (+16), and the PX - MX Korea FOB spread is 102 dollars (+3). The decline in crude oil prices has led to the expansion of PX profits again [3]. - The unilateral PX price has been continuously decreasing due to negative demand feedback and weak cost support. The PX outer - market monthly spread is generally stable, while PXN has weakened significantly [19][25]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. The PX - MX spread has weakened significantly, and the Asian MX blending oil market has recovered [29][42]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - This week, the domestic PX plant operating rate is 84.9% (-3.5%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78% (-1.9%). Multiple overseas plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight [3][55]. - In August, the PX import volume was 880,000 tons, and the import volume from South Korea increased significantly. The estimated import volume in September is 850,000 tons [56]. - In September, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong dropped to 3.92 million tons (+30,000 tons) [70]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PTA is in backwardation. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [76][82]. - The PTA basis has declined due to negative demand feedback, sufficient supply in East China, and the planned commissioning of new plants [77]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 76.7% (+2.3%). The new Fengming PTA plant is planned to start operation this week, and the production volume this week is 1.45 million tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the new Indian PTA plant GAIL [4][86]. - In August, the PTA export volume was 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [90]. - The PTA inventory is at a low level [103]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG basis is maintained at around 70 yuan/ton. MEG's valuation relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to the highest level this year [119][124]. - The profit of coal - based MEG plants is 47 yuan/ton (-171), while oil - based plants continue to operate at a loss [127]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG operating rate has reached a new high this year. This week, the operating rate continued to rise, and some plants will undergo maintenance and shutdown next week, which may cause a slight decline [129][130]. - In August, the MEG import volume was about 590,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in September [131]. - Multiple overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [138][141]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [146]. Polyester Segment Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (-0.1%). The profit of the polyester segment has been repaired, and the bottle - chip segment with successful inventory management is expected to increase its load, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [150][153]. - The polyester production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year [157].
能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:14
国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021541 日期:2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述:短期震荡运行 01 资料来源:隆众资讯,国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点:短期震荡运行 • 本周期山东益华、山东威特顺丁橡胶装置重启运行,齐鲁石化、扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修,周内高顺顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率总体窄幅变动, 但民营资源供应增量明显。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.00万吨,较上周增加0.01万吨,环比增加0.18%,产能利用率74.82%,环比提升0.13个百分点。 下周期暂无新装置重启及停车,但进入10月末后集中检修明显增多,特别是中石化系统齐鲁、扬子、茂名顺丁装置接续检修,短时中石化部分现货流通 资源预计趋紧。 (隆众资讯) 需求 • 刚需方面,预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率小幅波动为主,目前"双节"假期检修企业排产多已恢复至常规水平,整体市场表现未见明显转好, 为控制库存增加,部分企业仍处灵活控产状态。预计短期企业装置 ...
短纤、瓶片周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:14
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber: Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish. Currently, it is in a weak and volatile state, but the downside space is limited. There are uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the polyester industry's profit situation is good during the decline, with downstream profit repair. There is support from demand and spot transactions at the bottom [3][8]. - Bottle chips: Weak and volatile, but the downside space is limited. In the fourth quarter, the factory's operating rate is expected to remain around 80%. There are uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the polyester industry's profit situation is good during the decline, with downstream profit repair. There is support from demand and spot transactions at the bottom. However, there is a risk of inventory accumulation from October to November [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) Supply - The average operating rate of short - fiber factories is 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning remains at 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% and may gradually decline slightly from October to November due to downstream pressure [8]. Demand - There is a lot of low - level restocking in the spot market, and short - fiber inventory continues to decline. The 1.4D equity inventory is 5 days, and the physical inventory is 15.8 days. The profits of downstream sectors have mostly recovered, and there is room for price - cut promotions. The yarn operating rate remains stable, and the physical inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal knitting is better than weaving, showing a structural peak season. After the national cooling, the demand for winter fabrics has improved [8]. Valuation - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton. The processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, and the basis is high [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Gradually observe and take profit on short positions. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads. - Inter - variety: None [8]. 2. Bottle chips (PR) Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory's operating rate is expected to remain around 80%. This week, it has slightly increased to 82%. On the one hand, the processing fee has recovered, and on the other hand, it is the off - season for demand. Subsequently, it is expected to maintain production cuts and industry self - discipline. The Fuhai project's commissioning has been postponed again, and factories may slightly reduce their loads starting from November [9]. Demand - The price continues to decline, and low - price purchases are still active. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased to about 17 days. From October to November, demand decreases month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories has decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. Sea freight has declined, and the export volume in subsequent months is expected to be in the range of 50 - 550,000 tons from October to November [9]. Valuation - The spot processing fee is 500 - 550 yuan/ton, which is high. The processing fees for the November and December futures contracts are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are high, but it may be difficult to compress them due to weak raw material prices [9]. Strategy - Unilateral: Gradually observe and take profit on short positions. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts (enter when the processing fee is around 480 - 500) [9]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5100 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 830 - 850 yuan/ton [41]. Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has decreased to around 17 days. It is expected to accumulate inventory from October to November [45]. Device Changes - Most factories maintain a 20% production cut. The 1.1 million - ton bottle - chip device of China Resources Zhuhai was shut down briefly due to a typhoon and has gradually restarted. A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in China Resources Jiangyin was shut down in mid - September. The remaining 750,000 - ton device in Yisheng Hainan remains shut down. The 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai is expected to be commissioned around the end of October [51]. Demand - The operating rate of downstream industries has declined. The beverage industry, sheet material industry, and edible oil industry all show a decline in operating rates. However, there are new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry, and the demand for edible oil remains neutral. The penetration rate of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market is increasing, which drives the demand for sheet materials. The take - away war has increased the demand for sheet materials, and the demand from supermarkets has recovered [54][61][67]. Global Trade Flow - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand overseas will increasingly rely on imports. China's bottle - chip exports mainly flow to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe, South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and South America [73]. Export Situation - From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the exports to Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea have increased significantly month - on - month [80]. Anti - Dumping Policy - Many countries have implemented anti - dumping policies on Chinese bottle chips, including the United States, Brazil, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, Mexico, India, and Malaysia [91]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From October to November, inventory will accumulate, but the amplitude is not high. The supply - side assumption is that mainstream factories will maintain production cuts, Sanfang will slightly increase production, and Fuhai will commission a 300,000 - ton device at the end of October (production will be realized starting from November). The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year compared with the peak season of last year, and the export demand will be around 600,000 tons in subsequent months [92][93].
豆粕:贸易事件不确定,低位震荡,豆一:震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:13
豆粕:贸易事件不确定,低位震荡 豆一:震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读: 上周(10.13-10.17),美豆期价涨势为主,因为中美贸易谈判希望、国内大豆压榨需求较好。从周 K 线角度,10 月 17 日当周,美豆主力 11 月合约周涨幅 1.39%,美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.96%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 上周(10.13-10.17),国内豆粕期价偏弱,豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面,盘面依然交易中美缓和、中 加缓和等。豆一方面,盘面偏强可能因为中美贸易摩擦担忧、国内政策支持预期。东北产区豆价也出现小 幅上涨,具有偏多影响。从周 K 线角度,10 月 17 日当周,豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 1.85%,豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 2.03%。(上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经) 上周(10.13-10.17),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)美国政府停摆持续,美国农业部相关报告 依然暂停发布,影响不大。美国政府维持停摆状态,美国农业部相 ...
美豆周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:12
美豆周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产,没有牛市基础;成本支撑,大跌概率小,总体震荡偏强,区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中美关系恶化,美豆出口承压 | | 2、巴西雨季回归,降水改善,播种进度开始加快 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、生柴政策可能加码支撑价格 | | 2、中美关系存改善预期 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源:同花顺,国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017082 资料来源:同花顺、钢联、国泰君安期货研究 Spec ...
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:12
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉(首席分析师/所长助理) 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 日期:2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝:仍在考验21000关口 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源:国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 市场对于中美此轮贸易摩擦是否升级依然心存担忧,但传统有色市场的风险偏好依然较强,尤其以本周伦敦LME年会周传递的情绪来看,资 金依然在热烈追捧例如铜、锡等供给端出现减量扰动的品种——在宏观相对不那么一致性看空的环境里,供给端容易决定高弹性的上涨品种。 而铝金属,则相对受到冷遇,价格走势也持续呈现出震荡收敛。 ◆ 后续针对此次中美关税问题,仍需动态观察是否出现更进一步升级的事态。若走悲观的情景,双方反制升级,并可能引发衰退交易。此种情 形之下,作为制造业罕见高利润品种的铝,不排除有被显著挤利润的向下空间。若此波宏观交易线条结束,中长期趋势性上看,我们在铝的 单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上,继续保持看多方 ...
国泰君安期货·能源化工甲醇周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term methanol market is expected to fluctuate. The fundamental pressure on methanol is significant, but its valuation is moderately low. With numerous important macro - events recently, the price is likely to move in a volatile pattern. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the macro - end sentiment provides support [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral central shock is expected to move downward. The 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread will enter a short - term shock pattern, and the MA - PP spread will also enter a shock pattern [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **This Week's Methanol Summary** - **Supply**: From October 10 - 16, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,983,655 tons, a decrease of 47,850 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 2.36% week - on - week decline. Next week, production is expected to be around 1.9958 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 87.95% [4]. - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The olefin industry has no planned adjustments in the short term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. - **Traditional downstream**: Different traditional downstream products have different capacity utilization rate trends. For example, the overall capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline, while that of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of October 15, 2025, 11:30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 359,900 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 228,900 tons, a 98.64% increase. - As of October 15, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period [4]. **Price and Spread** - **Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents historical data charts of methanol's base, monthly spread, and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: It shows the historical price trends of domestic methanol in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [13][14][15]. - **International Spot Prices**: Charts display the historical price trends of international methanol in regions like China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19]. - **Port - Inland Price Spread**: The report provides historical data charts of the price spread between ports and inland areas from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22]. **Supply** - **New Methanol Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, many new methanol plants were put into production in China, with a total capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8400000 tons in 2025. Overseas, the total international capacity expansion was 3.55 million tons in 2024 and 3.3 million tons in 2025 [25]. - **Methanol Maintenance**: A list of domestic methanol plant shutdowns and production cuts is provided, including details such as province, enterprise name, capacity, maintenance start and end dates, etc. The total affected capacity is 8.54 million tons [27]. - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Historical data charts of methanol production, capacity utilization rate in China and different regions, and production by different processes from 2018 - 2025 are presented [28][30][31]. - **Methanol Import - Related**: Charts show historical data on China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40]. - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Historical data charts of methanol production costs and profits by different processes in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [43][44][45]. **Demand** - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Historical data charts of the operating rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde from 2020 - 2025 are presented [53][54][55]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Charts show the historical profit data of methanol downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][63]. - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Historical data charts of the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [68][69][70]. - **Traditional Downstream Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Historical data charts of the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [73][74][75]. - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Charts show the historical inventory data of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80]. **Inventory** - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Historical data charts of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented [83][84][85]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Charts show the historical inventory data of methanol ports in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91].