豆油：美豆题材不足，高位震荡为主 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 01 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，前高压力调整 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：月初 MPOB 报告兑现利空落地、B50 风险初现后基本面几无新增利空，同时美国生柴政策趋 近落地、印尼印度加税等炒作话题频发，寒潮、地缘等问题发酵带动原油价格上行，马来逐步兑现 1 月减 产，棕榈油季节性做多情绪高涨，但本轮上涨主要是能源带动及年前题材炒作为主，基本面无明显改善， 因此在前高位置阻力较大回落，最终棕榈油 05 合约周涨 3.63%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，跟随油脂板块上行为主，同时油粕比偏多交易思路强 化，豆油 05 合约周涨 2.35%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：在经历了近两个月的筑底后，棕榈油终于在一季度迎来了短暂的多因素共振下的流畅上涨窗 口。本轮上涨始于宏观资金关注商品周期轮动、MPOB 利空落地后入场，B50 年内悲观情绪充分消化、远期 需求逻辑与产量缠绕无法即时交易，马来高频产量及出口数据暗示去库进程良好、盘面重回逢 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：现实面不弱，价格相对抗跌 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 供应侧减量持续。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中30-50美元/干吨，原料库存充裕下，预计后续加工费底部企稳；根据百川盈孚初步 统计，2月冶炼排产环比下降5.68万吨左右，主要为云南、广西、内蒙古、四川和湖 南等地小厂春节停产放假减量，供应减量下节前累库或低于预期。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工环比下滑，节前订单不及预期，市 场对于高价货源接受程度有限。各行业整体放假节点较往年明显提前，部分企业已经 提前停产并进入假期 ...

（3）库存：港口可流通货源减少，调入量走弱。受煤矿价格上调、发运倒挂、北港持续去库等因素综合影响下，港口报价坚挺，但实际下游支撑不 足，节前市场表现或偏僵持。截止1月30日，北方港（不含黄骅）库存合计2306.0万吨，周环比减少142.0万吨。本周港口日均调入量100.42万吨， 环比减少2.06万吨，日均调出121.5万吨，环比增加9.98万吨。 动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0023682 日期： 2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 动力煤：市场供需弱平衡，节前价格窄幅波动 ◼ 基本面： （1）供应：春节临近煤矿陆续放假，供应逐步收缩。本周部分煤矿月度生产任务完成停产，供应小幅收紧，汾渭数据显示，1月22日-1月28日，三 西地区样本煤矿产能利用率89.80%，较上期下降0.49个百分点，大部分民营煤矿在农历腊月十八之后陆续停产，市场煤炭供应有收紧预期。预计随 着我国煤炭供需形势的转变，叠加市场对于"减量保价"共识的达成，2026年煤炭产能增 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16700-17500元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 五地铅总库存增加，但绝对库存处于历史同期低位 国内铅现货升水扩大 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-03 02-18 03-01 03-13 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-30 05-15 05-27 06-07 06-19 07-01 07-12 07-24 08-05 08-16 08-28 09-09 09-22 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-12 11-24 12-05 12-17 12-29 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -200 -150 -100 - ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月01日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：长期逻辑依然稳固，低位支撑价格 强弱分析：震荡，价格区间：98000-110000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 风险点：美国经济衰退，引发系统性金融风险。 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 2021-09 2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 2026-05 2026-09 2027-01 2027-05 20 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 行情走势：需求转弱，价格震荡运行 原木周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年02月01日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 现货价格走势 | 价格指标 | 树种规格 | 地 区 | 2026/1/30 | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/16 | 2026/1/9 | 较上周 | 较上周变化 近四周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 3 9米40+辐射松 | 山 东 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0 0% . | | | . | 江 苏 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 0 | 0 0% . | | | 3 9米30+辐射松 . | 山 东 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0 0% . | | | | 江 苏 | 780 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant to the Director), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the extreme chasing sentiment in the market continued to increase, and the AD price also followed the upward trend. However, since the night session on Thursday, precious metals started a stampede - style decline, and the panic sentiment spread in the market under the liquidity crisis, causing the AD price to fall from its high. With the Spring Festival approaching, the liquidity of the scrap aluminum market decreased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. As downstream die - casting industries entered the holiday season, secondary aluminum enterprises also took early holidays, and the overall industry operating rate is expected to continue to decline before the Spring Festival, restricting the supply side. Although the sharp rise in aluminum prices increased the theoretical profit of the secondary aluminum industry, the market showed the characteristic of "high prices but few transactions", and demand continued to weaken. Overall, with high aluminum prices and a seasonal off - peak demand period, the price of cast aluminum alloy may remain volatile at a high level. [4] - As of January 31, the explicit inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.63 tons to 13.84 million tons compared with the previous week, with a rapid increase in factory inventory but a continuous decrease in social inventory. From January 1 - 31, the retail sales of the passenger car market nationwide were 1.8 million, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The estimated new energy retail sales were about 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4%. In 2026, the maximum subsidy amount for the trade - in policy remained unchanged, but the subsidy method became more precise with the addition of vehicle prices as a limiting condition, which would benefit mid - to - high - end cars more. The weak retail data of automobiles in January this year was in line with expectations. [4] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - Relevant data charts show the price differences between different AD contracts and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest over time, but no specific text analysis is provided [7] Trading End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation within the warehouse receipt system, taking the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on January 30, 2026 as an example, the fixed cost was 8.05 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 51.30 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 59 yuan/ton [10] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual spot quotation in the market fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking into account various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost was calculated to be 23,752.7 yuan/ton [11][12] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously being depleted [14] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41% [17] Supply End - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between secondary and primary aluminum has weakened [27] - Cast aluminum alloy regional spreads show certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remained flat, while the monthly operating rate declined [37] - The monthly output of secondary aluminum alloy and its regional output shares are presented. For example, the output share of Henan is 0.34% [40][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line. The cost structure includes 90% scrap aluminum, 2% silicon, 4% copper, 1% natural gas, and 3% other components [43][44] - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly [48] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy has opened, and relevant import volume, cumulative import volume, and import profit data are presented [54][55] - The production and inventory data of secondary aluminum rods and their regional shares are provided. For example, the production share of Shandong in secondary aluminum rods is 9.27% [57][59] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Automobile consumption has resilience, which is transmitted to die - casting consumption. Relevant data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the automobile inventory warning index [62][63]

BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 资料来源：隆众，国泰君安期货研究 纯苯投产仍然较多 下游投产进入尾声 | | | | | | | | | ABS | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | | 2026年上半年 | 1月 | | | | | 上海赛科 | 12 | | | | | 2月 | | | | | | | | | | | 3月 | | | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | | | | | 4月 | | | 山东辉航 | 12 | | | | | | | 5月 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月 | | | | | | | | | | 2026年下半年 | 7月 | | | | | | | 高桥扩能 | 7.5 | | | 8月 | 华锦阿美 | 60 | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | 英力士 | 30 | | | 9月 | | | 广西骅桥 | 40 | 卫星石化 | 20 | | | | | | | | 浙 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：加速下跌；白银：快速宣泄情绪 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银偏弱 价格区间：1000-1100元/克、21000-25000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.72%，伦敦银回升4.23%。金银比从前周的50.3回落至47，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.26%（2年期 3.52%），美元指数录得97.1。 ◆ 1月30日周四夜盘起，贵金属开启了历史性的暴跌，伦敦金从最高点接近5600美元在48小时内完成了约16%的跌幅，最低回到4700美元下方； 伦敦银则进一步彰显了其弹性，最高从121美元回到78美元附近，跌幅超过35%。当金银以超乎历史的斜率上行时 ...

农产品每日仓单合集 农产品组 谢 义 钦 投资咨询号: Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 资料来源:国泰君安期货研究所 棉花仓单 生猪仓单 白糖仓单 仓单数量:生猪 (手) 仓单数量:白糖 (张) 仓单数量:一号棉(张) - 2018 1000 22 2023 2025 2025 -- 2019 35000 60000 | | | | | | | | | | 30000 800 50000 25000 40000 600 - 2026 20000 30000 15000 400 20000 10000 200 10000 5000 0 0 12-31 12-31 06-30 03-03 05-08 11-06 12-31 03-02 05-02 06-30 08-28 01-03 03-02 08-28 01-02 07-09 01-03 11-02 05-02 11-02 09-02 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 | 农产品合单一 | 一览 | | | | | | | --- ...