2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：库存去化 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位高波 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 13 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑 | 19 | | 铁矿石：资金轮动，小幅探涨 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 24 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 30, 2026 [1] - **Analyst**: He Xiaoqin, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017709 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral upward trend, recommend reverse calendar spread strategy [1][5] - PTA: Supported by cost, unilateral upward trend [1][6] - MEG: Upward trend [1][6] Core Views - **PX**: With continuous rise in crude oil prices and overall valuation increase in the chemical sector, the medium - term unilateral trend is upward. Before the Spring Festival, there are more pullbacks, and a reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended. Supply is abundant after the restart of the 800,000 - ton Zhonghua Quanzhou plant. The trading logic is mainly on the capital side, and downstream pre - festival rigid procurement demand drives up prices [5]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward with the continuous rise in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the 5,100 - 5,200 support range. Future supply and demand will be weak, and inventory will accumulate. Some polyester plants plan to increase production cuts in February, weakening the rigid demand for PTA. There is pressure above 5,500, but there will be support around 5,100. Short the processing margin on rallies [6]. - **MEG**: Buy on dips and trade in the 3,800 - 4,200 range. Supply pressure remains high, and port inventory has increased to 860,000 tons. However, considering basis and calendar spread can cover storage costs, the downside is limited. There will be more coal - based plant maintenance during the Spring Festival, and supply will decrease marginally. The short - term trend is upward, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse calendar spread during the rally [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 7482 | -34 | -0.45% | PX5 - 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | | PTA Main | 5332 | -38 | -0.71% | PTA5 - 9 | -18 | 6 | -24 | | MEG Main | 3957 | -13 | -0.33% | MEG5 - 9 | -97 | -96 | -1 | | PF Main | 6720 | -28 | -0.41% | PF3 - 4 | -56 | -48 | -8 | | SC Main | 472.5 | 12.2 | 2.65% | SC2 - 3 | -7.8 | -2.1 | -5.7 | [2] Spot Market | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 921.33 | 923.5 | -2.17 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 5250 | 5250 | 0 | | MEG Spot | 3837 | 3843 | -6 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 596 | 584.5 | 11.5 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 72.36 | 70 | 2.35 | [2] Spot Processing Margin | Processing Margin | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 357.42 | 339.67 | 17.75 | | PTA Processing Margin | 415.64 | 363.95 | 51.69 | | Short - Fiber Processing Margin | 120.64 | 142.01 | -21.37 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Margin | 211.39 | 199.35 | 12.03 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | -4.34 | -4.34 | 0 | [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: Naphtha prices remained strong in the afternoon. PX prices were weak today. Two April spot deals were made at $924/ton CFR. The recent PX valuation is $921/ton CFR, down $3 from yesterday [3]. - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. The PTA load on Thursday was 76.6%, and the operating rate was around 82.7% [3]. - **MEG**: As of January 29, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 74.38% (up 1.33% from the previous period), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.79% (up 2.39% from the previous period). A 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Fujian restarted recently and is expected to produce products this weekend [3]. - **Polyester**: As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester plants have frequent changes. The overall polyester load has decreased. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 84.7%. The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, at around 75% [5]. Trend Intensity - PX Trend Intensity: 1 - PTA Trend Intensity: 1 - MEG Trend Intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [5]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 原木：窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/1/28 | | | | | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/1/29 | | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/23 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 775.5 | | | | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 785 | | 775.5 | 776 | 776 | 1.2% | 1.2% | | 2751 | | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9866 | | 3684 | 5068 | 9430 | 258.6% | 5% | | 10129 | | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 10248 | | 10340 | 10481 | 11610 | 1.2% | -12% | | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - CEA trading volume has recovered and prices remained stable, while CCER has returned to a "discount" state [4] - Sellers have a low willingness to sell, while buyers' procurement funds have gradually arrived and their procurement willingness has emerged [4] - For CEA, most transactions are internal knock - outs within groups, and the price reference is limited; for CCER, the number of deliverable spot goods is small and the quotes are high [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs CEA Market - **Trading Volume**: The listed trading volume is 148,000 tons, and the large - scale trading volume is 500,000 tons. The total trading volume of CEA24 is 200,500 tons, and that of CEA25 is 447,600 tons [4][7] - **Price**: The listed average transaction price is 78.57 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.12%. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20 to CEA25 range from 70.00 to 79.00 yuan/ton, and the large - scale average transaction prices of CEA24 and CEA25 are 81.00 yuan/ton and 75.79 yuan/ton respectively [4][7] - **Price Change**: The price changes of CEA19 - 20 to CEA23 are 0.00%, and those of CEA24 and CEA25 are 1.28% and 0.11% respectively [7] CCER Market - **Trading Volume**: The listed agreement trading volume is 20,000 tons [4] - **Price**: The average transaction price is 75.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 8.23% [4] - **Transaction Amount**: The transaction amount is 1.13 million yuan, and the premium rate is - 4.54% [8]

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 若给您造成不便，数请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而观其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资外，本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对因使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明。本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或某他相关知识产 权。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译比报告的全部或部分内容。 国泰君安期货 ☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 車要声明 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第18期) 发布日期:2026-01-28 寒 ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/28 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王营 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 前一交易日 | 今天 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2026/1/28 | 2025/12/29 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/21 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 37.82 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金期货价格再创历史新高 黄金、白 银期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合约 | 趋势 阻力位 | | | | | 支撑位 | | | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | IF2603 | 震荡整理 4756 | 和 | 4778 | 点 | ...

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260129 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 9 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260129 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：持续反弹，高波动态势延续 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：高位震荡20260129 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The situation of nickel - related events in Indonesia is uncertain, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel mines in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of nickel - iron supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 144,370, down 1,740 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,465, down 75 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 404,592, a decrease of 118,804 from T - 1, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 454,242, a decrease of 25,750 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 142,900, down 2,050 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054, up 1 from T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [3] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [3] - Indonesia plans to cut the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - Indonesian officials said that nickel production in 2026 will be adjusted according to industry demand and smelter production capacity, possibly around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [6] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department has started to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：逢高沽空 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2. 美加紧张局势升级！卡尼与特朗普通话表态：" 达沃斯演讲" 是认真的。据报道，加拿大总理卡尼与 特朗普通话后重申，其在达沃斯世界经济论坛上反对" 经济胁迫" 的立场是认真的，公开否认美国财长贝森 特称其" 撤回言论" 的说法。分析指出，双方公开分歧凸显关系紧张，预示即将启动的美墨加贸易协定审查 谈判将充满挑战。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 25640 | 1335 | | 1485 | રૂરકર | 4755 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 25330 | - | | l | l | ...