| 【基本面跟踪】 | | --- | 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,775 | 1,772 | 3 60709 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,768 | 1,781 | -13 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 175,891 | 115,182 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 233,074 | 235,887 | -2813 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 13,355 | 13,355 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 621,930 | 410,186 | 211744 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -25 | -22 | - 3 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -145 | -142 | - 3 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | -45 | - ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, after a significant previous correction, the butadiene rubber futures are approaching the low end of the fundamental static valuation. With tight butadiene spot and port destocking, increased market speculation drives the futures price to rebound [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) was 11,915 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 128,058 lots; open interest was 93,726 lots, up 2,724 lots; turnover was 7.5067 billion yuan, up 1.39503 billion yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 315 yuan, down 330 yuan; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 was - 100 yuan, up 5 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China increased to varying degrees; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) both rose by 100 yuan; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 250 yuan and 200 yuan respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 74.599%; the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,388 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 687 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan [1]. Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous period. Some sample production enterprises' inventory increased, while sample trading enterprises' inventory decreased [2]. - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period due to limited imports and high - level operation of downstream industries [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE imports in December exceeded expectations, and upstream quotes showed signs of weakness. The futures market was volatile, with upstream inventory transferred earlier, but recent mid - stream shipments led to looser enterprise quotes. The downstream was resistant to high prices due to compressed profit margins [1]. - The raw material end, crude oil prices strengthened, while the ethylene monomer segment weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was repaired. The PE market continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream was not chasing the rising prices to replenish stocks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 was 6666, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The trading volume was 410,677, and the open interest increased by 9,150 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 146 (previous day: - 110), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 28 (previous day: - 24) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the north, the spot price was 6,520 yuan/ton (previous day: 6,530 yuan/ton); in the east, it was 6,650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6,700 yuan/ton); in the south, it remained at 6,700 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market was volatile. Upstream inventory was transferred earlier, but recent mid - stream shipments led to looser enterprise quotes. The production of standard products continued to rise, and after the market correction, trading volume weakened significantly, and the basis strengthening was not as strong as before. The downstream was resistant to high prices due to compressed profit margins [1]. - The overseas market quotes increased, and LL supplies were scarce. The long - term import profit was available, and importer transactions increased. Downstream factories were mostly cautious and waiting [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end, crude oil prices strengthened, and the Middle East geopolitical risks had not been released. The ethylene monomer segment weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was repaired [2]. - The PE market continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream was not chasing the rising prices to replenish stocks. The downstream demand for agricultural films was weakening, and the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakened. The upstream offered discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, with a weak basis [2]. - On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang was gradually in trial production. The planned maintenance in January decreased compared with the previous month, and some FD switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention should still be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity was - 1 [3]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪稍有回升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：下方有支撑 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注缅甸复产 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：反弹沽空 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：高位震荡 | 12 | | 钯：金银回调，上方承压 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 2026年01月22日 商 品 研 究 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 22 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend intensities [2][34][73]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. The prices of domestic and international gold showed an upward trend, and the trading volume and positions had certain changes. Trump's speech and related events had an impact on the market. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: Subject to tariff expectation fluctuations. The prices had minor changes, and the market was affected by Trump's remarks and geopolitical events. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: Traded in a high - level range. The prices and trading data had specific changes, and the trend intensity is 0 [30]. - **Palladium**: Faced upward pressure due to the callback of gold and silver. The prices and related data showed certain characteristics, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The risk sentiment slightly recovered, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and international copper, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had changes. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment of the State Grid and other events affected the market. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - **Zinc**: Had support at the lower level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by Trump's speech. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supported the price. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was influenced by Trump's remarks. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed certain characteristics. The trend intensity is - 1 [20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillated around 24,000. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy had changes. The market was affected by various factors, and the trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 1, 0, and 1 respectively [24]. - **Nickel**: The repeated remarks from Indonesia disturbed the sentiment, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by Indonesian policies. The trend intensity is 0 [34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 0 [34]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The price was affected by the tense situation in Iran and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, showing an upward trend [72]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by both macro and micro factors, they oscillated weakly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by coal price trends and steel production. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0 [58]. - **Power Coal**: The market sentiment was weak, and the price had a short - term weak adjustment. The prices showed a downward trend, and the market was affected by production and import data. The trend intensity is not clearly stated [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by multiple factors, it oscillated strongly in the short term. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by production and demand expectations. The trend intensity is 1 [154]. - **Soybean Oil**: Due to the lack of themes in US soybeans, the rebound height was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 1 [154]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight rise of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal might follow the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by US - China relations and South American harvest progress. The trend intensity is 1 [159]. - **Soybean**: The market atmosphere improved, and the price might oscillate. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had specific changes. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by spot price trends. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Mainly showed a weak operation. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by production and import data at home and abroad. The trend intensity is - 1 [166]. - **Cotton**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by spot trading and cotton textile enterprise conditions. The trend intensity is 1 [170]. - **Egg**: The sentiment weakened. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had specific changes. The trend intensity is 0 [176]. - **Live Pig**: The spot price weakened, and the peak - season expectation decreased. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes. The trend intensity is - 2 [179]. - **Peanut**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 0 [183]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: The tense situation in Iran and the rebound of oil prices supported the PX valuation. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing margin. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Monoethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The downward space was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Rubber**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by inventory and supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: With the stabilization of butadiene, the price rebounded. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by butadiene prices and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The import in December exceeded expectations, and the upstream quotation was loose. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production ratio remained low, and the profit repair was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price still faced pressure. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The trend intensity is - 1 [86]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [91]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is - 1 [96]. - **Methanol**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Urea**: Oscillated and had support at the lower level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [104]. - **Styrene**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by export and supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is - 1 [109]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supported by the heating demand, the price was firm. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and international prices. The trend intensity is 1 [112]. - **Propylene**: The spot market maintained a tight balance. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [112]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Oscillated weakly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The trend intensity is - 1 [119]. - **Fuel Oil**: Remained strong in the short term, and the fluctuation continued to increase. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [122]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Followed the upward trend mainly, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [122]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It was in a temporary oscillating market. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical situations, and export policies. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: It was in a short - term oscillating market, and the processing margin was at a low level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It was in a short - term oscillating market. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [145]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and benzene - related events. The trend intensity is 0 [150].

1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives specific outlooks for different commodities: - **Weakening prices with attention on downstream restocking rhythm**: Iron ore [2][5] - **Wide - range fluctuations due to raw material market disturbances**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [2][9] - **Wide - range fluctuations with rising cost expectations**: Ferrosilicon [2][14] - **Wide - range fluctuations with slight raw material price adjustments**: Silicomanganese [2][14] - **Weakening oscillations under both macro and micro influences**: Coke, Coking coal [2][17] - **Short - term weak price adjustments due to weak market sentiment**: Steam coal [2][21] - **Low - level oscillations**: Logs [2][23] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends and fundamentals of various black series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price data, trading volume, open interest, and relevant macro and industry news for each commodity, along with trend strength indicators, all of which are used to support the specific outlooks for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (- 0.70%). The open interest decreased by 11,163 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%); the HC2605 contract was 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). Rebar trading volume was 633,661 hands, with an open interest increase of 1,023 hands; hot - rolled coil trading volume was 335,123 hands, with an open interest decrease of 36,985 hands. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: BHP's first - half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted some iron ore price cuts in annual contract negotiations with China. Steel production, inventory, and import data for December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [9][12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,556 yuan/ton and 5,542 yuan/ton respectively; silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,748 yuan/ton and 5,786 yuan/ton respectively. Some spot prices and spreads changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 21, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese price ranges in different regions were reported. In 2025, the cumulative manganese ore imports increased by 12.04% year - on - year. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [15][16]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 contract for coking coal and the J2605 contract for coke were 1,129 yuan/ton and 1,683.5 yuan/ton respectively, both with slight increases. Some spot prices and basis values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 21, CCI metallurgical coal index data were released. As of now, the total coke inventory at two ports in Shandong increased by 700,000 tons week - on - week. Due to factors such as the slowdown in coal price increases and steel mill iron - water production cuts, the market sentiment weakened, and port coke prices declined [17]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Steam Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The prices at production areas, ports, overseas, and the January long - term agreement prices showed different degrees of change, with some prices declining [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China's raw coal production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Coal imports in December 2025 far exceeded expectations. In 2026, Indonesia's expected coal production quota is expected to be tightened [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than that in November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Report Overview - Report Date: January 22, 2026 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Indonesian statements repeatedly disrupt market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices [2][4] - Stainless Steel: The futures market is anchored by the contradictions in the ore end, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the price center [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Supported by auction prices and expected supply reduction, the bullish and volatile trend continues [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Upstream production cuts lead to a range - bound oscillation state [2][12] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to subsequent spot transaction prices [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 143,060 yuan, with a change of 1,700 yuan compared to T - 1. The stainless steel main contract closed at 14,720 yuan, up 375 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and price spreads also showed different degrees of change [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; China implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore and adjust the nickel ore production target [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 166,740 yuan, up 6,240 yuan from T - 1. Trading volume, open interest, and other indicators also changed. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products in the industrial chain showed an upward trend [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; an auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed; new energy vehicle retail and wholesale data declined year - on - year and month - on - month [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively bullish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract for industrial silicon was 8,780 yuan, up 35 yuan from T - 1. The PS2605 contract for polysilicon closed at 49,700 yuan, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory also showed various changes [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The battery market is under cost pressure due to rising silver prices, and overseas battery prices have changed due to export tax policies [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), and polysilicon has a trend intensity of - 1 (relatively bearish) [15]

2026年01月22日 | 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆题材不足，反弹高度受限 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围好转，盘面或震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行为主 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260122 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：现货转弱，旺季预期降低 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 22 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，反弹高度受限 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,832 | 涨跌幅 0.96% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,918 | 涨跌幅 0.97% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2026年第12期) 发布日期: 2026-01-20 关税威胁再起,EUA大幅回调 敢新 1、一级:拍卖价格87.34欧元/吨(-4.38%),投标覆盖比1.67; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价88.14欧元/吨(-4.24%),成交6.59万手(3.39)。 信号强度:0(0为空仓,土1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 核心 利多:暂无新增。 逻辑 利空:特朗普提出格陵兰关税威胁,欧洲市场普跌。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 ☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 車要声明 | CBAM证书价格 | EUA拍卖价格 | | | EUA拍卖量 | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (欧元/吨) | | (欧元/吨) | | (万吨) | | (万欧元) | | 2026-01-19 | 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold may have reached a new starting point for an upward trend, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of gold, paying attention to the new heights brought by the strengthening of its monetary attribute [1] - The purchasing power of gold is returning. Strategies should focus on going long on gold unilaterally and using the buy - call strategy. Volatility may rise. For silver, a profit - taking strategy for long positions is recommended, and going long on the gold - silver ratio is of good value. Attention should also be paid to the alternative performance of platinum's investment attribute [2] Summary by Related Content Geopolitical and Market Factors Affecting Gold - Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, which will increase to 25% in a few months [1] - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, aiming to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons [1] - The Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension will withdraw from US Treasury bond investments, and Japanese government bonds have been sold off due to lack of funds for radical tax cuts [1] Investment Strategies - For gold, consider strategies such as going long unilaterally, buying calls, and using the far - month bull call spread structure for long - term long positions. For those planning to increase gold allocation, consider the circuit - breaker enhanced accumulator option [1][2][4] - For silver, recommend a profit - taking strategy for long positions and going long on the gold - silver ratio [2] - Pay attention to the alternative performance of platinum's investment attribute [2] Option Strategies - For on - exchange gold options, due to high implied volatility, long - term long positions can use the far - month bull call spread structure and adjust the strike price through rolling profit - taking to reduce option costs [3] - For off - exchange options, investors planning to increase gold allocation are advised to arrange circuit - breaker enhanced accumulator options with a moderate cycle and range to reduce long - position costs in a volatile upward market [4]