Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on various investment varieties, suggesting investors adjust their positions according to the market situation and the development of the trade war, and provides corresponding option strategies for different varieties [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stocks - **Hong Kong Stocks**: If the trade war is less severe than expected, reduce short - term positions in the Hang Seng Technology Index and wait for better entry points. If it worsens, adopt a barbell strategy of technology (AI/innovative drugs/autonomous control) + dividends and buy technology assets at the right time [3]. - **US Stocks**: Short - term fluctuations are inevitable, but the decline will be less than in April. Reduce short - term positions and wait for better opportunities to enter the US technology stock market [3]. Futures - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the intensification of the trade war, Treasury bonds may open higher on Monday, but the upward trend may not last. Maintain a view of bottom - side oscillating and bearish [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The market has TACO trading expectations, but A - shares are overvalued, especially technology stocks with bubbles, and there is a risk of liquidity. The key lies in the development of the trade war and the government's willingness and strength to maintain stability. Consider buying short - term out - of - the - money put options and November call options [3]. Commodities - **Copper**: Prices are under pressure. If the trade conflict worsens, there may be further decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, which will be transmitted to the smelting end. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options on the far - month [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be affected by short - term negative sentiment, but the long - term trend is bullish. Consider constructing a collar strategy by buying put options and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **European Routes**: The 2510 contract may decline by 2 - 5%, the 2512 contract by about 10%, and the 2602 contract has a risk of significant decline [5]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a 5 - 6% decline in price, and a 10% decline in the most pessimistic scenario. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for short - term speculation [5]. - **Chemicals**: The impact is mainly on ethane and propane. Consider bearish spreads and wait for the market to stabilize before selling options [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Beans and some domestic - priced fresh products are strong, while cotton is weak. Consider buying call options on beans [5]. - **Black Metals**: The direct impact of the trade war on the fundamentals is small, but the valuation may decline. The decline amplitude may be smaller than that of other sectors [5]. - **New Energy and Related Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may decline by 5%. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money put options for tail protection [6]. - **Nickel**: The price is under pressure and may fluctuate. Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short at high prices with a light position [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to decline by 4 - 5%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may decline by 5 - 6%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy more out - of - the - money call options to construct an inverse spread option [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows both increasing supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The overall supply pressure of primary lead is significant, while the demand has a notable phased increase. The domestic lead inventory has decreased, reaching a historically low level for the same period. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, and it is advisable to buy on dips. The term spread arbitrage of SHFE lead can be temporarily held [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.18%. The closing price of the night session was also 17,140 yuan/ton, with no change. The LME lead 3-month contract had a closing price of 2,009 dollars/ton last week, a decrease of 0.35%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread was -38.22 dollars/ton last Friday, a change of -2.92 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead was -25 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lead in five locations decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,696 tons to 30,068 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 9,293 tons to 39,916 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons to 36,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 500 tons to 237,000 tons [3][8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last week was 36,308 lots, a decrease of 12,967 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 44,795 lots, a decrease of 15,867 lots. The trading volume of LME lead 3-month contract was 13,567 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8] 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate has been continuously weak. The weekly average spot import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate was -110 dollars/ton. The production of lead concentrate in China, its import volume, consumption, and the inventory in Lianyungang have shown different trends over the years [5][7][27] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, while the profit of recycled lead enterprises has recovered to a profitable level, and the expectation of resuming production has increased. After the maintenance of smelters in regions such as Henan and Inner Mongolia ended, they resumed production, and the operating rate of smelters increased marginally. With the continuous pressure on the price of waste batteries and the presence of smelting profits, some enterprises in regions such as Anhui and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and it is expected that the production of recycled lead will increase significantly in the later stage [7] 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The consumption of lead-acid batteries has improved, the finished product inventory is low, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is at a high level for the year [7] - **End-Use Markets**: The actual consumption of lead has shown different trends over the years, and it is related to the production of end-use products such as automobiles and motorcycles [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view on asphalt this week is that it will fluctuate weakly following the cost. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt has decreased, and it is expected to decline further next week. Demand varies by region, with消极 sentiment in Shandong and general demand in East China. Asphalt is following the decline of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: As of October 9, 2025, the domestic asphalt capacity utilization rate was 37%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. Considering the shutdown of Shandong Shengxing and Jiangsu Xinhai, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline further next week [4]. - **Demand**: In Shandong, downstream operators are消极, and continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand. In East China, operators purchase on - demand, and social inventory has decreased. - **View**: Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil, and the shipment has slowed down during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China. - **Valuation**: This week, BU fluctuated weakly with crude oil, and the spot price declined under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous period. The spot price in the north decreased significantly, mainly due to the decline of Brent crude oil and continuous rainfall. In the south, the price support is insufficient [4]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading are provided [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume/Open Interest**: There are data on the open interest of asphalt futures and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil to different countries [9][10]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: There are data on the prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: There are data on the basis in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta and the calendar spread of different contract months [16][21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [24]. - **Downstream Shipment**: Before the holiday (September 17 - 23, 2025), the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a 9.0% increase from the previous period. Shandong saw a significant increase, while East China decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period and a 0.8% increase year - on - year [26]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Key indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [28]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 751,000 tons, a 7.9% increase from September 29. The total inventory of 104 domestic social asphalt warehouses was 1.48 million tons, an 8.4% decrease from September 29 [32]. - **开工**: There are data on the weekly开工 rate of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [35]. - **Inventory**: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions [44].

本周尿素观点：偏弱运行 | 供应 | • | 2025年第40周 (20251002-1008)，中国尿素产量140.28万吨，较上周增加3.22万吨，环比涨2.35%；周均日产20.04万吨，较上周增加0.46万吨。周期内安徽、 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 陕西等省产量有明显增加，产量有明显减少的省份是宁夏。下周，中国尿素周产量预计132-133万吨附近，较本期明显减少。下个周期预计4家企业计划 | | | | 停车，1家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量减少的概率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外，复 合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大，开工率维持低位，对尿素原料采购需求较为有限，对高价尿素货源接受度低。 | | 需求 | • | 出口方面，目前三批次出口配额全部落地，尿素出口正常进行，预计9月及10月出口量维持高位。目前贸易商正在向工厂进行出口订单的提货来陆续集 | | | | 港。出口限价有所下 ...

国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 本周合成橡胶观点：弱势运行 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 估值 观点 供应 • 2025年10月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量：13.13万吨左右，较9月份预期略增长0.09万吨。预计未来一月共5套装置计划检修，涉及年加工能力42万吨/年。4 季度后顺丁橡胶行业检修相对集中，尤其中石化方面企业普遍在10月初后进入检修流程。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，10月轮胎企业整体订单表现环比弱化。欧盟反倾销因素制约，目前部分欧盟市场为主企业订单环比上月缩减明显，加之连续降雨，居民出行 及运输均受到较大影响，整体需求表现偏弱，部分企业在国庆中秋"双节"期间存5-8天检修计划，期间整体出货表现不及预期，成品库存去库缓慢， 加之市场涨跌局面较为混乱，更 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated lower, affected by the deterioration of Sino - US relations and the return of the rainy season in Brazil. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [8] - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated with no obvious driving factors [10][11] - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated. There were no obvious driving factors for both long and short positions, and the current core contradiction has shifted to macro - expectations [13] - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [15][17][19] - On October 10, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 119.43 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 137.19 reais per bag [21][24] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 68%, compared to 60% last week [27] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation in main US soybean producing areas will be low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [29][31] - The rainy season in Brazil has returned, with improved precipitation conditions, but slightly less precipitation in the central - western region [33] - Precipitation in Argentine soybean producing areas is basically normal, and sowing work is about to start [35] - As of the week ending September 26, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 62%, compared to 61% last week and 64% in the same period last year [37] Demand Factors - As of October 3, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.82 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.84 dollars last week [41] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, compared to 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, compared to 804,300 tons last week [43][45] - The net sales volume of US soybeans this year was 724,400 tons, compared to 923,000 tons last week; the sales volume for the next year was 0 tons, compared to 220,000 tons last week [47][49] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [51] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating the entry into the La Nina range [54] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [56][58] - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared to 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, compared to 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared to 59,400 lots last week [62][64][66]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡承压 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：震荡承压 | | • | 本周(20251003-1009)中国甲醇产量为2032905吨，较上周增加103580吨，装置产能利用率为89.59%，环比涨5.36%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量204.02万吨左右，产能利用率89.91%左右， | | | | 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃：中原乙烯烯烃装置后期存在停车预期，其他装置运行稳定，行业开工稍 ...

动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年10月12日 资料来源 Wind 、Mysteel iFind国泰君安期货研究所 ： 资料来源： Wind 、Mysteel、iFind、国泰君安期货研究所 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5500) 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5000) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 元/吨 大同南郊动力煤-5500-车板含税价 鄂尔多斯-电煤-5500-坑口含税价 榆林烟煤末-6000-坑口含税价 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 美元/吨 进口煤价格 印尼FOB Q5000 欧洲CIF Q6000 澳大利亚FOB Q5500 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18 ...

聚烯烃：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周PP观点：趋势仍偏弱 | 供应 | 本周（20251003-1009）中国聚丙烯产量：79.62万吨，较上周期增加1.17万吨，涨幅1.49%，延续上升趋势。周内生产企业损失量数据高位 回落，聚丙烯产量继续增加。节后返市，聚丙烯供应端增量压力明显，市场商家让利出货为主，重心继续下移。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 国内聚丙烯下游行业（包括塑编、注塑、BOPP、PP管材、PP无纺布、CPP、PP透明、改性PP共8个下游行业）平均开工上涨0.05个百分点 至51.76%。随着国庆假期结束，多数制品企业逐步恢复生产，行业开工率较国庆 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：周末关税突发扰动市场，风险点聚焦在流动性及衰退主题 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 3 2 ◆ 节后2个交易日沪铝跟随传统有色金属整体性走强，受益于长假期间的风险多头情绪，市场多数风险资产均走强，呈现出一定程度的Risk On模式。但 因本周五中美关税问题再起，有色各品种夜盘均不同程度跌落。鉴于铝价在此前整体市场风偏走高阶段的涨幅相对克制，因此周五夜盘的跌幅也并不 那么显著。后续针对此次中美关税问题，仍需动态观察是否出现更进一步升级的事态，比较乐观的情景是此次100%关税加征仅是中美谈判前的试探 筹码，难以实际落地；悲观的情景在于，双方反制升级，并可能引发衰退交易。基于对铝金属全球及中国供需格局的考量，若走乐观情景，铝价仍是 回调找买点；若走衰退交易，作为制造业罕见 ...