1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of lackluster demand during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - arc furnaces. The iron ore market has existing support from real - world demand, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels. The coking coal and coke market has support from the current fundamentals and is expected to fluctuate strongly. The ferroalloy market has cost support, and prices will fluctuate [3][6][80][136]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Viewpoint**: Demand during the peak season is lackluster, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [6]. - **Macro - level**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading. Domestically, the "Qiu Shi" article reignited policy expectations for anti - involution [8]. - **Black Industry Chain**: The peak - season demand is likely to be lackluster. During the peak season, traders change from demanders to suppliers, increasing the supply pressure of steel. To maintain inventory levels, supply needs to be reduced, which requires price declines and profit compression. Since scrap steel used in electric - arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, attention should be paid to the production - reduction rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [8]. - **Thread Steel**: The 10 - 01 contract continued the reverse - spread logic. New - home sales remained at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Although demand increased seasonally, it was still at a low level compared to the same period. MS weekly data showed that demand bottomed out and inventory decreased slightly. Scrap steel remained a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction rhythm of electric - arc furnaces. Due to the revised expectations of production - restriction policies, steel - mill profits decreased [18][22][28][36][38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The 10 - 01 contract's positive - spread widened. Although it was the seasonal peak season, demand in the home - appliance and automotive industries was poor, and there was a risk of lackluster demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The export profit margin was opened due to the widened internal - external price difference, and exports remained at a high level. MS weekly data showed that supply remained at a high level, and inventory continued to accumulate. Due to the revised policy expectations, steel - mill profits decreased [44][49][50][54][59]. - **Variety Spreads**: Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the spread between cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils and the spread between medium - plate and hot - rolled coils to widen [62]. - **Regional Spreads**: There were price differences in different regions for various steel products [69]. - **Cold - Rolled and Medium - Plate**: Relevant supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [76]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Viewpoint**: Real - world demand support still exists, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively high levels [80]. - **Supply**: Overseas shipments were still at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the freight rate from Brazil to China increased month - on - month. The recent shipments of mainstream mines recovered to a high level year - on - year, and freight rates increased. The freight rate in Brazil might be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region was relatively low [81][94][96][98][106]. - **Demand**: Considering the pre - holiday production demand of intermediate products, blast - furnace operation continued to increase, and the immediate demand for raw - material spot was still strong. The production of hot metal and the output of five major steel products both increased month - on - month. The price of scrap steel continued to rise month - on - month, helping the scrap - iron price difference to recover [82][109][112]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory exceeded 140 million tons again [116]. - **Downstream Profits**: Due to the rebound in coking coal and coke prices, the paper profit decreased [121]. - **Spot Category Spreads**: The price of PB ore dropped more significantly compared to other ores this week [123]. - **Paper Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread stabilized [127]. - **Basis Performance**: As the paper price fell from its peak, the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts widened month - on - month [131]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals provide support, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [136]. - **Supply**: After the military parade, domestic upstream production quickly recovered. The customs - clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained at a high level. The actual supply changed little in the past week, but the expected supply - side intervention was volatile, causing significant fluctuations in paper prices [136]. - **Demand**: Pre - holiday restocking of raw materials had begun, and the current spot demand was relatively strong [137]. - **Macro - level**: Overseas interest - rate cuts were announced as expected, and the paper market had already priced in this factor, so the impact was limited after the event. Domestically, macro - expectations were still strong, providing some support for the valuation of black - series products [137]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: From the perspective of the current fundamentals, both supply and demand were strong at the margin, and there was also strong domestic expectation support at the macro - level. The short - term valuation was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [137]. - **Fundamental Data Changes**: Data on supply, demand, inventory, profit, and warehouse receipts of coking coal and coke were provided [139]. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: Data on coking coal supply (weekly, monthly, and Mongolian coal customs - clearance), inventory (pit - mouth and port) were provided [140].

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Trading Qualification Number: F3082452 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, asphalt continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. It followed the rise of crude oil, but the shipping resistance significantly increased, and the factory inventory accumulation rate increased month - on - month. In the short term, the valuation of asphalt may be weaker than that of crude oil. Attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price fluctuation range of the asphalt market was 3,621 - 3,631 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range narrowed [4]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding the reverse spread for the inter - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. Although some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns and production cuts, the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianze, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, led to the increase in capacity utilization [4]. - **Demand**: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong had the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream construction demand. East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production of major refineries and the preference of traders for low - cost resources in social warehouses [4]. - **Valuation**: The BU futures fluctuated and strengthened with crude oil, while the spot price remained stable. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt decreased, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The prices in Southwest, South China, Shandong, and East China showed a downward trend, while the price in North China increased slightly [4]. 2. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oil varieties have different asphalt yields, and there are also impacts from import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight [7]. - **Futures - Market Price and Trading Positions**: The report presents data on the trading positions of asphalt futures, the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil, the spread between BU and SC, and the warehouse receipts of BU in different regions [9][10][11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions, the price differences between regions, and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report provides historical data on the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, as well as the calendar spread data [15][16][17]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [22]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 9.0% month - on - month. Shandong had the most significant increase, while East China had the largest decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [25]. - **Supply** - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In October 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.35 million tons. From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total production was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of 54 asphalt samples increased by 0.9%, and the social inventory of 104 samples decreased by 1.8% [31]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: It presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the total inventory rate of the asphalt market over the years [43][44][48].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：合金成本存在支撑，价格走势震荡 | | | 产节奏对合金的需求支撑力度，警惕需求不及市场预期而使得供需矛盾加剧，合金价格出现下移。 | 幅收缩，部分产区存有转产迹象，但成本端表现坚挺，新增投产计划使得空头情绪浓厚，短期维持成本以上空间运行。需持续跟踪钢厂的生 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 条 目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | | | 当期值 | 环 比 | 同 比 | 当期值 | 环 比 | 同 比 | | | 周产量（周） | 11.45 | 1.24% | 4.85% | 20.64 | -1.12% | 17.44% | | 供 应 | 进口数量 ...

综述：弱势运行 01 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年09月28日 | | 本周合成橡胶观点：弱势运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | • | 本周期山东威特、台橡宇部及浩普新材料顺丁橡胶装置延续停车检修，山东益华顺丁橡胶装置因故障短停检修，周内高顺顺丁产量及产能利用率延续走 低。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.67万吨，较上周减少0.13万吨，环比减少4.75%，产能利用率66.41%，环比下降3.31个百分点。预计下周期浩普新材料 | | | | 及台橡宇部顺丁橡胶装置存重启预期。 （隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • | 刚需方面，预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率将明显走低，据了解，"国庆节"假期期间，部分企业计划9月30日或10月1日开始放假5-8天，将对下周 期样本企业产能利用率形成较大拖拽。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 替代需求方面，目前NR-BR主力合约价差维持在800-1000元/吨区间，替代需求仍维持在高位。因此顺丁橡胶整体需求端维持同 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyester Data Weekly Report - Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG remains weak. Suggest 1 - 5 inverse spreads for these products. For PTA, consider shorting on the rebound of processing fees for 01/05 contracts. For MEG, operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 and consider the strategy of going long on L and short on MEG [3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PX Valuation - The PX valuation is affected by factors such as the strengthening of naphtha, the weakening of PXN, and the strong overseas oil product cracking spreads. The external PX is strong in the near - term, and attention should be paid to the monthly spread inverse spread [20][28][34]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX supply is gradually increasing. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). In August, the PX表观 consumption was 393000 tons, and the import volume was 88000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons. The inventory in August decreased to 3.9 million tons (-240000) [55][56][57][60][67][73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse spread. The PTA processing fee is at a low level, and the device operation willingness is weakened. The cost has collapsed, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has declined [79][81][87]. Supply and Demand - The PTA supply is gradually increasing. The current operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged). The cumulative PTA production from January to August 2025 was 48.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Exports increased from July to August, and the inventory is at a low level [90][93][106]. MEG Valuation - The MEG valuation shows a downward trend, and the basis remains high. The MEG is relatively more valuable compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics. The coal - based profit has dropped to 305 yuan/ton (-95), the naphtha - based MEG profit is -970 (-130) yuan/ton, and the MTO profit is -1106 (-70) yuan/ton [123][129][131]. Supply and Demand - The overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to produce MEG is 74.36% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The supply pressure has marginally improved. The import volume in August was about 590000 tons, and it is expected to increase in September. The port inventory is at a low level [133][136][137]. Polyester - The current polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%). Affected by the typhoon, a 1.1 - million - ton bottle - chip factory in South China temporarily stopped production. The bottle - chip sales improved significantly, the filament factory's promotion drove the inventory to decrease by 7 - 10 days, and the staple fiber inventory continued to decline. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the festival [158][160].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for live pigs showed weak performance this week (9.22 - 9.28). The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped to 24.55 yuan/kg from 25.35 yuan/kg last week, and the live pig price in Henan decreased to 12.58 yuan/kg from 12.93 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows remained at 1590 yuan/head. The supply was still abundant with slow group -出栏 progress and increasing retail -出栏 willingness, while the slaughter volume rose due to double stimulation of pre - holiday stocking and cooling [2]. - The futures market for live pigs also showed weak performance. The LH2511 contract of live pig futures had a high of 12920 yuan/ton, a low of 12570 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 12575 yuan/ton (compared to 12825 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 5 yuan/ton (compared to 105 yuan/ton last week) [2]. - Looking ahead (9.29 - 10.8), the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly. The supply is in an incremental stage, and there is a large supply pressure in September. The market is in a passive inventory accumulation stage instead of an active de - stocking stage, and it will take a long time to digest the inventory. The demand increased seasonally in September but will enter a slack season in October. The probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals is increasing, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2511 contract is facing a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. The contract's position reached a record high, and the pre - holiday stocking expectation was lower than expected. After the holidays, panic de - stocking may start, and attention should be paid to the basis - convergence market. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and short positions in the May contract can be held with stop - loss and take - profit in mind. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 11500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (9.22 - 9.28) - **Spot Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets decreased, while the price of binary sows remained stable. The supply was abundant, and the slaughter volume increased [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures showed a downward trend, and the basis decreased [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (9.29 - 10.8) - **Spot Market**: The spot price is expected to be weak. Supply pressure is high, and inventory digestion will take time. The probability of a weak peak season is increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract is facing challenges, and attention should be paid to the basis - convergence market. Short positions in the May contract can be considered [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 5 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 spread was - 525 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight this week was 124.66KG (compared to 124.72KG last week). In July, pork production was 501.1 million tons, a 5.4% month - on - month decrease, and in August, pork imports were 8.17 million tons, a 7.46% month - on - month decrease [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The demand in the peak season is not strong, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - level - **Overseas Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading [5][9] - **Domestic Macro**: "Qiushi" re - mentioned "anti - involution", aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, and policy expectations resurfaced [5][8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - The peak - season demand is likely to be weak. Traders change from demanders in the off - season to suppliers in the peak season, increasing the supply pressure of steel. To keep inventory stable, supply needs to be reduced through price decline and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts as scrap steel for electric furnaces is a high - cost iron element [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 01 contract of rebar continued the reverse - arbitrage logic. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3260 yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3114 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 92 yuan/ton [14][17] - **Demand**: New - home sales remained low, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remained high, showing rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. The demand showed seasonal recovery but was at a low level compared to the same period [18][21][22] - **MS Weekly Data**: Demand bottomed out and inventory decreased slightly. Scrap steel remained a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [23][29] - **Production Profit**: Due to the revision of production - restriction policy expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 166 yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 130 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 83 yuan/ton [31][35] 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 01 contract of hot - rolled coil showed a positive - arbitrage widening trend. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3313 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 82 yuan/ton [37][40] - **Demand**: It was the seasonal peak season, and demand increased month - on - month. However, the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries were poor, so there was a risk of weak demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The export profit was opened due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and exports remained high [41][42][43] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply remained high, and inventory continued to accumulate. The production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [45][46] - **Production Profit**: Due to the revision of policy expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 112 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 179 yuan/ton [49][51] 3.5 Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities of the widening of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread [52] 3.6 Variety Regional Difference - The report provided the regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil among different cities such as Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [60][61][63] 3.7 Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presented the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - plates from 2021 to 2025 [66][67]

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Outlook [1] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The real - world demand for iron ore still provides support, and ore prices are expected to oscillate at relatively high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - Seaborne shipments remain at a relatively high year - on - year level, and the freight rate from Brazil to China has increased on a month - on - month basis [5]. - The recent shipments of mainstream mines have recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have risen. Brazilian freight rates may be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa have increased on a month - on - month basis. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region is relatively low [17][19][21][30]. - Global weekly shipments were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. YTD cumulative global shipments were 1.167207 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8832 billion tons or 8%. Brazilian shipments were 8.363 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million tons or 7.7%. Australian shipments were 18.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.246 million tons or 8.49% [4]. 3.2 Demand - Considering the pre - holiday production demand for intermediate products, blast furnace operations have been increasing, and the immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong. Iron and steel production and the output of five major steel products have both increased on a month - on - month basis. The price of scrap steel has continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, helping to widen the scrap - iron price difference as iron ore prices have fallen from their highs [5][33][36]. - The iron - making output of 247 enterprises was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons [4]. 3.3 Macro - level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the market had already priced this in, so the impact was limited after the announcement. The domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5]. 3.4 Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract oscillated strongly, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 509,000 lots, a decrease of 65,600 lots. The average daily trading volume was 28,400 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 55,800 lots [7]. 3.5 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have fallen from their recent highs. For example, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased from 799 yuan/ton last week to 785 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [12]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at 45 ports has once again exceeded 140 million tons [40][42]. 3.7 Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, leading to a downward revision of the paper profit [44]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Differences - The price of PB powder has fallen more than other varieties this week [46]. 3.9 Futures Spread - The 1 - 5 futures spread has stabilized [50]. 3.10 Basis Performance - As the futures price has fallen from its high, the basis for the 01 and 05 contracts has widened on a month - on - month basis [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the long - short contradictions in the nickel market are in balance, and nickel prices may continue to fluctuate within a range. However, if the contradictions on either side intensify in the fourth quarter, it will further increase the volatility of Shanghai nickel. For stainless steel, short - term steel prices lack upward drivers but do not have the basis for a sharp decline, and the long - term strategy of buying on dips has better cost - effectiveness [1][2]. Summary According to Related Contents Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Indonesian nickel mine contradictions have increased market concerns, while the steep accumulation of refined nickel inventory and weak expectations have put pressure on prices. The takeover of part of the Weda Bay Nickel mine and the suspension of 190 mining companies in Indonesia may affect the supply. However, the global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The nickel surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, with a decrease in warehouse receipt and spot inventory and unchanged bonded area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [4]. - **Market News**: There are multiple pieces of news related to Indonesia, including plans to shorten mining quota periods, government - approved RKAB production, suspension of some nickel - iron production lines due to losses, requirements for resubmitting 2026 RKAB, and crackdowns on illegal mining. Also, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [5][7][8]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game, and steel prices currently lack a clear trend. The demand side is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply side has seen an expected increase in production after valuation repair [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.549 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%; SMM stainless steel social inventory was 0.909 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; the total social inventory of stainless steel monitored by Steel Union was 0.984 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0% [4]. - **Market News**: There are news such as a steel mill in Shandong reducing production due to capacity limitations and an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspending part of its production lines [5][6]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380, down 1,610; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, down 90. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 163,560, down 13,470; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 262,187, up 81,878 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel bean premium and discount, and other indicators are provided, as well as data on the stainless steel and nickel - related industry chain such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit [9].