1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides investment views and strategies for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The views range from valuation concerns and caution in chasing prices for iron ore to different types of price oscillations (repeated, wide, high-level) for other commodities, and a short-term narrow price adjustment for thermal coal [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.36%. The open interest of I2605 was 653,307 lots, a decrease of 1,527 lots. Imported and domestic ore spot prices mostly declined slightly, with the base price and spreads showing minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The RB2605 rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, unchanged, and HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures closed at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.09%. Rebar trading volume was 837,879 lots, and open interest decreased by 38,760 lots; hot-rolled coil trading volume was 404,061 lots, and open interest increased by 12,752 lots. Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel output increased, total inventory of rebar rose while that of hot-rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand for both declined. In late December 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased in quantity and price [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes, with trading volumes and open interests varying. Spot prices of silicon-manganese increased, and manganese ore prices also rose. Price differences such as basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads changed accordingly [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Iron alloy prices in different regions had adjustments, and major manganese ore suppliers announced increased prices for February 2026 shipments. A large steel group increased its silicon-manganese procurement in January [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The JM2605 coking coal futures closed at 1,191 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 3.8%, and J2605 coke futures closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.4%. Trading volumes and open interests decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed an increase in the price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, and the port coke spot market was weak [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The January long-term agreement prices for Shanxi and Shaanxi also decreased [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the PPI decline narrowed, and the CPI increase expanded. There were market rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal supply guarantee and increased production capacity, and Indonesia planned to tighten its coal production quota in 2026 [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided in the report. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: Log futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices showed various changes, with some prices remaining stable and others having minor fluctuations. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's Composite PMI in December 2025 was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention should be paid to upward risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent may challenge $68 - 70 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.65 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.77%, to $61.15 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 03 rose $1.60 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.51%, to $65.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 12.70 yuan per barrel, a 2.90% increase, at 450.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all had closed arbitrage windows, with reasons including unprofitable imports, insufficient cracking profits, high freight, supply surplus, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties had a closed arbitrage window with limited cross - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light had an open arbitrage window, indicating that Saudi light crude oil had an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light had open arbitrage windows due to可观 cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness; Azeri Light had a closed window due to environmental policies [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all had closed arbitrage windows because of low demand, high freight, and structural surplus [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all had closed arbitrage windows due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - From January 9th, the US API crude oil inventory was 527.8 million barrels, the gasoline inventory was 823.3 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory was 94.5 million barrels, with different expectations and previous values [5] - The US government applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade, and the US military and coast guard had seized five ships in recent weeks [5][6] - The US Energy Secretary said that if the Iranian regime collapses, the US is willing to cooperate with Iran in the oil field [7] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran, fearing disruptions to the oil market and impacts on domestic stability [7]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated January 14, 2026, covering various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to narrow [2] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [2] - Soybean meal: Likely to follow US soybeans in digesting the USDA report, with a weakening market [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and the market may fluctuate [2] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2] - Sugar: Expected to operate weakly [2] - Cotton: To continue the adjustment trend [2] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, but sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2] - Hogs: There is negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply continues to be postponed [2] - Peanuts: To operate in a fluctuating manner [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,778 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,758 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton, and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons (20.28 million tons in 2025), and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons (3.05 million tons in 2025). India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than November. Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel policy implementation depends on crude oil and palm oil prices [5][6][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 4,329 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change, and night - session closing price was 4,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change; DCE soybean meal's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a - 1.12% change [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, CBOT soybeans fell to a two - and - a - half - month low. The USDA lowered US soybean export forecasts by 60 million bushels (1.63 million tons) and raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Private exporters reported sales of 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the day - session and 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change in the night - session; the closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase in the day - session and 2,278 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change in the night - session [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton, and containerized first - class grain port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.84 US cents/pound with a - 0.05 change, the mainstream spot price was 5,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the futures main contract price was 5,253 yuan/ton with a - 32 change [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 31, the 2025/26 Indian sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year. India has signed 180,000 tons of export contracts this season. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons) [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,760 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase in the day - session and 14,745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change in the night - session; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,765 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase in the day - session and 20,820 yuan/ton with a 0.26% change in the night - session [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading weakened. Some cotton merchants slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The overall price of pure cotton yarn was stable, but the actual transaction center moved down slightly. The downstream weaving mills' new orders were limited, and the grey fabric inventory was high [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,960 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.53% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 2,990 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.32% change [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton with a 100 increase, the Sichuan spot price was 13,000 yuan/ton with a - 100 change, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,260 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of hog 2603 was 11,795 yuan/ton with a 60 increase, the closing price of hog 2605 was 12,170 yuan/ton with a 5 increase, and the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,830 yuan/ton with a 5 increase [32] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton with a - 100 change. The closing price of PK603 was 7,862 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,874 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change [35] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin, and the price of Xingcheng "Little Japan" peanuts was 4.1 - 4.37 yuan/jin [36]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Lithium prices are on a significant upward trend driven by tax policy adjustments, with short - term demand boosted by "rush - to - export" expectations, but there are potential callback risks [1] - For on - exchange options, consider using strategies like buying in - the - money call options or bull call spread combinations to reduce costs [2] - For off - exchange options, clients with long positions planning to gradually reduce their holdings can consider the Phoenix Knock - Out Put Option to seize high - selling opportunities [3] Summary by Related Content Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong, with the main 2605 contract reaching 170,200 yuan/ton at mid - day, up 9.51% [1] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will drop from 9% to 6% and will be fully canceled on January 1, 2027 [1] - In the past two months, the cost of various types of battery cells has generally increased by 15% - 20% [1] - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative exports of power and other batteries reached 260.3GWh, accounting for 18.4% of total sales [1] On - exchange Options - Due to the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, consider using strategies such as buying in - the - money call options or bull call spread combinations [2] Off - exchange Options - Clients with long positions planning to gradually reduce their holdings can consider the Phoenix Knock - Out Put Option to seize high - selling opportunities and gain additional income during wide - range market oscillations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 13, 2026, and the overall trend in January 2026 [2][5]. - Market events such as the US Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, geopolitical frictions, and policy changes have affected market sentiment and the prices of related assets [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On January 12, 2026, the domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread gains, with precious metals, shipping futures, new - energy materials, and base metals rising significantly. Except for the 2601 contract about to expire, all other lithium carbonate futures contracts were locked at the daily limit [8]. - International precious metal futures generally rose on January 12, 2026, due to increased market risk - aversion [9]. - Crude oil futures prices rose on January 12, 2026, supported by expected increased demand [9]. - London base metals all rose on January 12, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On January 12, 2026, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all showed different degrees of upward trends, with IC2603 and IM2603 reaching new highs [11][12][13]. - In January 2026, the IF, IH, IC, and IM continuous contracts are expected to be oscillating strongly. On January 13, 2026, IF2603 and IH2603 are likely to be strongly oscillating, while IC2603 and IM2603 are likely to be oscillating strongly and may reach new highs [16][17]. 3.3 Gold Futures - On January 12, 2026, the gold futures contract AU2602 reached a new high since its listing in 2008. The continuous contract also reached a new high in night - trading on January 13, 2026 [34]. - In January 2026, the gold futures continuous contract is expected to be strongly oscillating and reach a new high. On January 13, 2026, AU2602 is likely to be strong and reach new highs [35]. 3.4 Silver Futures - On January 12, 2026, the silver futures contract AG2604 reached a new high since its listing in 2012. The continuous contract also reached a new high in night - trading on January 13, 2026 [41]. - In January 2026, the silver futures continuous contract is expected to be strongly oscillating and reach a new high. On January 13, 2026, AG2604 is likely to be strongly oscillating and reach new highs [42]. 3.5 Platinum and Palladium Futures - On January 12, 2026, platinum and palladium futures contracts showed different degrees of upward trends. In January 2026, the continuous contracts of both are expected to be strongly oscillating [47][53]. - On January 13, 2026, the PT2606 contract is likely to be widely oscillating, and the PD2606 contract is also likely to be widely oscillating [47][54]. 3.6 Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, and Tin Futures - On January 12, 2026, copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures contracts all rose. The continuous contracts of aluminum and tin reached new highs, and the tin contract SN2602 hit the daily limit [56][61][66][72]. - In January 2026, the continuous contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to be strongly oscillating and reach new highs. The nickel continuous contract is expected to be widely oscillating strongly. On January 13, 2026, the new contracts of these metals have different expected trends [56][61][66][72]. 3.7 Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 12, 2026, the polysilicon futures contract PS2605 declined, while the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 hit the daily limit [76][81]. - In January 2026, the polysilicon continuous contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the lithium carbonate continuous contract is expected to be strongly oscillating. On January 13, 2026, the PS2605 contract is likely to be widely oscillating weakly, and the LC2605 contract is likely to be strongly oscillating and may hit the daily limit [76][83]. 3.8 Other Commodity Futures (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Glass, Soda Ash, PTA, PVC) - On January 12, 2026, these commodity futures contracts showed different trends of rise and fall. In January 2026, different trends are expected for each contract, and on January 13, 2026, most of them are likely to be weakly oscillating [88][93][96][102][107][111][114][116]. 3.9 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China has clearly defined the layout and investment directions of government investment funds [6]. - The EU has made progress in the consultation on the China - EU electric vehicle case [6]. - There are uncertainties in the export of civilian rare - earths to Japan [6]. - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement multiple actions during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7]. - The US Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell has affected market sentiment [7]. - US President Trump's remarks on trade tariffs and military threats have increased geopolitical risks [8].

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 本次 USDA 双报告偏空，预计豆价暂时低位运行。1 月 USDA 供需报告上调美豆期末库存，因为供应微 增、需求下降。供应端的问题在于美豆单产维持高预估、未出现超预期下调。需求端的问题在于出口下调 数量较多，内需微增无法抵消出口调降的影响。由于供应端短期不再调整，可关注美豆需求调整：出口需 求首当其冲、中方采购仍是关键点。截至目前，中方采购美豆节奏正常、且低价美豆仍有吸引力，所以美 豆出口存在好于预期可能性。我们对于美豆盘面价格并不过分悲观，预计暂时保持低位运行，等待新的基 本面消息指引。巴西方面，虽然产量上调、但出口和内需同步上调，期末库存变化不大、平衡表维持中性 状态，预计巴西升贴水有支撑（巴西大豆争夺美豆出口市场，巴西升贴水和美豆盘面价格可能有"跷跷板 效应"）。从进口成本主要项目来看，美豆盘面价格暂无上行驱动、保持低位运行，但巴西升贴水或有支 撑、因争夺美豆出口市场，所以国内豆粕价格预计暂时低位运行，等待新的驱动。后期关注：巴西收获、 美豆出口、南美产区天气。（个人观点，仅供参考，上述内容在任何情况下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. On January 7, 2026, the soybean futures price reached a nearly 16 - month high, and the futures market activity continued to increase [1][29]. - The improvement is due to two main reasons: the better situation in the soybean spot market since 2025, including good auction results, the "low - opening and high - running" price of new - season Northeast soybeans, and the increase in both market and state - reserve purchase prices; and the strong policy sentiment, with industrial policies emphasizing key points to support the soybean industry's development, and the trading sentiment on the market being strong in response to policies. The policy sentiment boosts the trading sentiment and pushes up the price [1][29]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Soybean Futures Price Reaches a Phased High - On January 7, 2026, the closing price of the main 2605 contract of soybean futures was 4404 yuan/ton, reaching the highest point since mid - August 2024 [3]. - In 2025, the annual total trading volume of soybean futures was about 47.71 million lots (a year - on - year increase of about 65%), and the average daily trading volume was about 200,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of about 64%), both reaching the highest since 2022. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average daily trading volume climbed to the highest since 2021 [3]. - In 2025, the average daily open interest of soybean futures was about 320,000 lots, a year - on - year increase of about 49%, reaching a new high since 2021. As of the week of January 9, 2026, it was about 370,000 lots, hitting a new high [3]. 2. Improvement in the Spot Market - **Good Auction Results**: In 2025, the total auction volume of domestic soybeans was about 1.61 million tons, the highest since 2021. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned 26 times, with 23 successful auctions and 3 failures, and the average success rate was about 47%. Nearly half of the auctions were at a premium, and the last three auctions in December 2025 were all at a premium of 64 - 95 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in the success rate [8][13]. - **"Low - opening and High - running" Price of New - season Northeast Soybeans**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas dropped by 40 - 120 yuan/ton compared with the end of September. Then the price rebounded. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the price in the Northeast production area was 4260 - 4360 yuan/ton, a 440 - yuan/ton increase compared with the week of October 10, 2025. The price performance in 2025 was better than that in the same period of 2024 [13]. - **Increase in Market Purchase Price**: In 2025, the purchase price of new - season Northeast soybeans by some market enterprises was higher than that in the same period of 2024 and was in an upward trend. For example, on September 29, 2025, "Nehe Xiangyu Agricultural Products Co., Ltd." raised the purchase price to 1.92 yuan/jin, higher than the 1.9 yuan/jin in mid - October 2024, and it was further raised to 1.99 yuan/jin by November 9, 2025 [16]. - **Increase in State - reserve Purchase Price**: In 2025, the state - reserve purchase price was slightly increased. On November 3, 2025, the purchase prices for different protein levels were announced. On November 28, 2025, Suihua Direct Warehouse slightly raised the price, and on December 24, 2025, both the Hulunbuir Reserve Co., Ltd. and Suihua Direct Warehouse raised the purchase price again, with the state - reserve purchase price being higher than the market price and having a positive impact [20]. 3. Strong Policy Sentiment - **Industrial Policy**: Since the new soybeans were launched in mid - September 2025, domestic policies have supported the development of the soybean industry. Key points such as "grain production capacity improvement", "quality improvement", etc. were emphasized to support the development of the domestic soybean industry [23][24]. - **Trade Policy**: The domestic market also trades on changes in import soybean policies, such as Sino - US tariff policies and soybean import policies, due to the competitive pressure of imported soybeans on domestic soybeans [24]. - **Reserve Policy**: The domestic soybean auction rhythm affects short - term supply and market sentiment, and the market also trades on this [24]. 4. Conclusion - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. The improvement is due to the better situation in the spot market and strong policy sentiment. The policy can play a role in guiding the supply - demand relationship of the domestic soybean market and promoting the sustainable development of the industry. Later, attention should be paid to the No. 1 Central Document, the auction rhythm, and the selling pressure of farmers after the Spring Festival [1][29].

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Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The lithium price continues to rise significantly, driven by the adjustment of tax policies. The expected "rush to export" during the policy transition period boosts demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is still in an upward channel, but there is a risk of callback if the price increase is passed on to downstream [1]. - For the on - site options, considering the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. - For off - site options, customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate futures market performs strongly. As of the mid - day close on January 13, 2026, the main 2605 contract is reported at 170,200 yuan/ton, up 9.51%. The rise is mainly driven by the adjustment of the battery product's VAT export refund rate from 9% to 6 from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and the planned full cancellation on January 1, 2027 [1]. - In the context of rising raw material prices, the cost of various types of battery cells has generally increased by 15% - 20% in the past two months. The "rush to export" behavior is expected to boost demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is in an upward channel, with the short - term high affected by long - profit - taking [1]. - If the price increase in the industrial chain is successfully passed on to the downstream, it may suppress terminal demand and bring a callback risk [1]. On - site Options Given the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. Off - site Options Customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3].