1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ◆ 其他影响因素： 截至9月21日当周，波罗的海干散货指数（BDI）录得2266.00点，较上周上升79点（+2.9%），其相关 分项灵便型海运指数BHSI录得832点，较上周+2.1%；上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）录得1114.52点， 较上周-7.0%。 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 增加 10 元/方，江苏市场 报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 0。山 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixian Fei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The primary supply pressure is significant, and the demand has a significant incremental increase in the short - term, which supports the short - term price. The production of primary lead is under pressure, and the profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to the profitable level. The consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally. [6] - From the perspective of supply and demand, domestic lead inventory has decreased from 67,600 tons on September 18th to 46,400 tons on September 25th. The ratio of long - position to inventory of the SHFE Lead 10 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has continued to narrow. It is recommended that existing long positions be held, and new long positions should be cautious. Before the holiday, control the position. In terms of spreads, short - term consumption has improved, and enterprises' restocking has reduced inventory, so the SHFE lead calendar spread arbitrage can be held temporarily. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction - related - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,110 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.20%. The LME lead 3 - month contract's closing price last week was 1,995.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.37%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread increased by 4.65 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [7] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,525 tons from the previous week to 34,764 tons. The SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons. The social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 46,400 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.20% to 10.09%. [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 49,275 lots, an increase of 13,300 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 60,662 lots, an increase of 27,919 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of the LME lead 3 - month contract was 4,919 lots, an increase of 1,192 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week. [7] 2. Supply - related - **Lead Concentrate**: The production of lead concentrate in China, its import volume, actual consumption, and operating rate are presented in the report. The import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate spot has dropped to - 110 US dollars/ton this week, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises is under pressure. [6][27] - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are shown. The profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to the profitable level, and some enterprises in Anhui, Hubei and other regions have started to resume production. [6][32][33] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are included. The price of waste batteries has been under pressure, and smelting is profitable. [6][39][40] - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, monthly import volume of lead ingots, import profit and loss, and export volume of lead ingots are provided. [43] 3. Demand - related - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally, and large lead - acid battery enterprises have increased raw material procurement before the holiday. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries are also presented. [6][46] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles are shown, reflecting the end - user demand for lead. [48]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 164, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: September 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price rebounds, with daily trading volume increasing by 16.5% compared to the previous day [5] - From September, key emission - control units will formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances, and carbon prices may face downward pressure. By the end of October, as compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [8] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of carbon price reversal may be seen as early as September [7] - It is recommended that enterprises with allowance gaps make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 4: Market Conditions Summary CEA Market - CEA24 shows weak and stable operation, while other targets show slight rebounds. The volume of listed allowances is 813,000 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 845,000 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 closes at 65.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 closes at 59.00 yuan/ton with a 5.36% increase; CEA22 closes at 60.00 yuan/ton with a 3.43% increase; CEA23 closes at 57.13 yuan/ton with a 2.62% increase; CEA24 closes at 57.65 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [10] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.00 tons; CEA21 is 0.00 tons; CEA22 is 18,500 tons; CEA23 is 646,100 tons; CEA24 is 993,100 tons [10] - The total trading amount of CEA19 - 20 is 58,991,100 yuan; CEA21 is 1,108,400 yuan; CEA22 is 41,935,500 yuan; CEA23 is 0.00 yuan; CEA24 is 60,000 yuan [11] CCER Market - The volume of listed agreement transactions of CCER is 139,800 tons, and the average transaction price is 78.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14%. The trading amount is 10,948,500 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 3,160,500 tons [12]

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/9/26 | 李先飞 | 王营 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 王宗源(联系人) | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/25 | 2025/8/29 | 2025/9/19 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 1. 34 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market showed a mild contraction in trading volume, with concentrated hotspots and weak performance of individual stocks. The press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" reflected a prudent policy attitude, and there was some front - running trading for the "14th Five - Year Plan". The steel industry's growth target was set, and the A - share steel sector rebounded. Overseas, the US GDP growth in Q2 was revised up, which might affect the Fed's attitude towards monetary policy. Trading volume was concentrated in the technology sector, causing a siphon effect on the whole market. The Kechuang 50 index led the market with a nearly 6.5% increase, while other sectors and stocks declined severely. The weekly gains of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 were around 1%, and the CSI 1000 and 2000 recorded 0.5% and 1.8% declines respectively. The basis of each variety fluctuated little this week, with IH maintaining an annualized premium of 2% and the annualized discounts of the other three varieties narrowing slightly compared to last week. The term structure became flatter, and long - term hedging could be maintained [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of weakening, strengthening, strengthening, and strengthening respectively next week [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory This Week's Market Review - The market had a mild contraction in trading volume, with concentrated hotspots and weak individual stock performance. Relevant press conferences reflected a prudent policy attitude, and there was front - running trading for the "14th Five - Year Plan". The steel industry's growth target was set, and the A - share steel sector rebounded. Overseas, the US economic data might affect the Fed's monetary policy. Trading volume was concentrated in the technology sector, causing a siphon effect on the whole market. Different stock indices had different performance this week, and the basis of each variety had small fluctuations [2] Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH will weaken next week, while the basis of IF, IC, and IM will strengthen [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on September 26, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for September 2025. It also provides information on macro - news and trading alerts, and analyzes the performance of various futures contracts on September 25, 2025 [2][7][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4588 and 4600 points, support at 4550 and 4529 points; IH2512 has resistance at 2970 and 2981 points, support at 2946 and 2939 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7250 and 7300 points, support at 7139 and 7100 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7380 and 7459 points, support at 7245 and 7174 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 107.40 and 107.30 yuan, resistance at 107.72 and 107.83 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support at 113.5 and 113.0 yuan, resistance at 114.3 and 114.7 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 862.1 and 865.0 yuan/gram, support at 850.0 and 848.0 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 10600 and 10680 yuan/kg, support at 10411 and 10397 yuan/kg, and may hit a new high since listing [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range and will accumulate strength to attack the resistance at 83300 and 84000 yuan/ton, support at 82000 and 81500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2511 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 20860 and 20940 yuan/ton, support at 20740 and 20700 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 2900 and 2877 yuan/ton, resistance at 2942 and 2960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2511 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 492 and 494 yuan/barrel, support at 485 and 483 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil futures contract FU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 2910 and 2929 yuan/ton, support at 2887 and 2873 yuan/ton. PTA futures contract TA601, PVC futures contract V2601, and bean meal futures contract M2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. Natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 15210 and 15110 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Alerts - The Ministry of Commerce took multiple measures, including adding US entities to export - control and unreliable - entity lists, responding to Sino - US soybean trade issues, initiating trade - investment barrier investigations against Mexico, and launching an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US [7]. - The digital RMB international operation center was officially launched, and the tax department and platforms are preparing for the first tax - related information submission. The US Q2 GDP growth was revised upwards, and some Fed officials advocated for interest - rate cuts [8]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 25, 2025, IF2512, IH2512, and IC2512 showed different degrees of upward movement, while IM2512 showed a slight decline. The report also gives the expected trends for September 2025, all contracts are likely to oscillate in a wide range [12][13][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 oscillated weakly, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 oscillated slightly upwards. The report gives the expected trends for September 26, 2025 [37][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 oscillated downwards, and the silver futures contract AG2512 oscillated upwards and hit a new high during the night session. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [45][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [56][61]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On September 25, 2025, various commodity futures such as crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [100][104][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is driven by stable demand and cost support, with a stable supply - demand balance and a trend of oscillating upward prices. In the long term, as production capacity is gradually released and the risk of overcapacity intensifies, the ferrosilicon market may face price adjustment pressure. Investors are advised to seize short - term market fluctuations and pay attention to the impact of power policies and raw material price changes on costs [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background - Since the anti - involution sentiment swept the commodity market, the ferrosilicon price has shown an oscillating upward trend, and production in various regions has gradually recovered. From August to mid - September 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon remained at a historical high, and the operating rate was stable. The weekly output of Ningxia, a major production area, reached a new peak, and the spot price continued to rise. In mid - to late September, the research team conducted a survey on ferrosilicon production in Ningxia, focusing on key production enterprises and warehousing and logistics, to provide data support for industry decision - making and price analysis [8]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Market Research Summary 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon: Stable Capacity Release in Major Production Areas and Tight In - Factory Inventory - Ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas generally use large - capacity electric furnaces for off - peak production. The unit power consumption is 7500 - 8500 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.39 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Most enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation. September was the last month of power subsidies, with a standard subsidy of 0.011 yuan/kWh·month. In October, Ningxia entered the power spot trading month, and most manufacturers believed the trading results would offset the reduction in subsidies. Currently, not all furnaces in Ningxia are operating at full capacity. Some manufacturers are under maintenance, and some operate only 30% of their total capacity. The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is low, with 10 - 20 days of raw materials. Except for large enterprises, the finished product inventory is very low. The sales model in Ningxia is different from that in Inner Mongolia, with a large proportion supplied to futures - cash traders, mainly in a "production by order + trade supply" mode. Most ferrosilicon factories in Ningxia have production orders until early October, and some until the end of October. They purchase raw materials locally. There is no plan to add new production capacity for now, but if the futures price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, some furnaces will resume operation [10]. 3.2.2 Cost Side: Rising Prices of Semi - coke and Electricity in September Support the Bottom of Ferrosilicon Prices - The production cost of ferrosilicon enterprises mainly consists of semi - coke, silica, and electricity, with electricity accounting for the largest proportion. The power cost in August and September increased compared to July but remained stable due to government subsidies. In October, with the end of subsidies and the start of power spot trading, the actual electricity price change is expected to be around 1 cent/kWh. In the short term, the marginal cost fluctuation is mainly in the semi - coke segment. During the research period, the ex - factory price of semi - coke in Fugu was 700 - 710 yuan/ton (plus freight of 110 - 140 yuan/ton). Some enterprises had cost advantages by stocking up at low prices. As of September 26, the price of small - sized semi - coke increased by about 50 yuan/ton, which may increase the ferrosilicon smelting cost by 60 yuan/ton. The silica price at the factory is mostly between 160 - 240 yuan/ton. The comprehensive power consumption is generally 8000 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.41 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Some enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation and power spot trading. The total cost of labor and depreciation is about 450 - 500 yuan/ton. The full cost in Ningxia during the research period was concentrated in the range of 5200 - 5650 yuan/ton. With the current offer of 5800 yuan/ton from HBIS, the profit margin is still tight, and the cost side may continue to support the bottom of ferrosilicon prices [11][13]. 3.2.3 Supply Side: High Elasticity of Capacity Release and Continuous Order Placement - The total designed annual production capacity of the seven surveyed ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia exceeds 1.4 million tons. The furnace types are mainly medium - and large - sized submerged arc furnaces of 33000KVA - 45000KVA, producing both common ferrosilicon and 75 ferrosilicon, with some focusing on low - aluminum and low - titanium ferrosilicon. Driven by profits, some manufacturers said the profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is relatively high. If the futures price fluctuates slightly, future production will focus on 75 ferrosilicon. If the price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, the idle capacity will fully produce common ferrosilicon, increasing supply pressure. Currently, the actual operating rate of most enterprises is lower than the designed full - production level, affected by market prices, power costs, and off - peak policies. The monthly output of the seven enterprises is about 85,000 tons, with an overall operating rate of about 73%, accounting for about 40% of the total output in Ningxia. The downstream orders are stable, and the production orders extend from September to November. Some enterprises have expanded overseas markets through exports. Overall, the production model of enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas is "production by order + low inventory", ensuring stable supply without increasing inventory. The supply side features large capacity, high elasticity of release, and continuous order placement, and can stably meet market demand in the short term [15][16]. 3.2.4 Detailed Research Minutes - **Ningxia A Enterprise**: Main products are common silicon and high - silicon. It has 8 furnaces of 40500KVA and 2 of 16500KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 350,000 tons. Currently, 4 furnaces are operating, and 6 are shut down. Production orders are until the end of September. The raw material inventory is about one month, and it purchases raw materials every half - month. The sales model is mainly futures - cash trading, with an average monthly volume of 4000 tons and long - term contracts of about 2000 tons. The full production cost is 5500 - 5650 yuan/ton [18]. - **Ningxia B Enterprise**: Mainly produces low - aluminum, low - titanium, high - silicon ferrosilicon (70% of capacity) and 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons. Currently, 1 furnace of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA are operating, with a full - production capacity of 160 - 170 tons/day and an off - peak production capacity of 130 - 140 tons/day. There is no inventory in the factory, and it produces by order, ensuring a monthly output of 3000 tons. Current production orders are nearly 25 days. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, supplying low - aluminum, low - titanium ferrosilicon to steel mills such as HBIS at an average monthly volume of 300 - 400 tons, with a price of the HBIS common ferrosilicon tender price plus 900 yuan/ton. It also exports to countries such as Japan and Turkey through the supply chain platform. 75 ferrosilicon is sold to magnesium enterprises for magnesium ingot production. The full production cost of common ferrosilicon is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. - **Ningxia C Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon (adjusts production of 75 ferrosilicon as needed). It has 6 furnaces of 35000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 220,000 tons. Currently, all 6 furnaces are operating without off - peak production, with an average electricity cost of 0.41 - 0.419 yuan/kWh and a monthly output of 18,000 tons. Production orders are until November. If the futures price rises to 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, it will hedge at most one - month's order volume. The sales model is mainly order - based production, with a maximum monthly order volume of 15,000 tons. It currently sells some silicon powder at a price about 600 yuan/ton lower than that of common ferrosilicon [20]. - **Ningxia D Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon. Currently, it operates 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 45000KVA (alternating for off - peak production), with an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons and a current monthly output of 6000 tons. Production orders are until the end of October. The raw material inventory is 10 - 15 days. It requires 50 - 60% advance payment for sales. The comprehensive power consumption is 8000 kWh/ton, and the current electricity cost is 0.41 yuan/kWh. During the spot trading month, it can reach 0.38 yuan/kWh. Waste heat power generation can save 200 - 300 yuan/ton in costs [21]. - **Ningxia E Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon recently. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA. Currently, 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA are operating, with the 25000KVA furnace producing 72 ferrosilicon, and a monthly output of 5000 tons. Production orders are until the end of September, and there is currently 700 - 800 tons of inventory. It has a large inventory of low - price semi - coke. The comprehensive power consumption of 72 is 7800 kWh/ton, and the electricity cost is 0.417 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 is 8100 kWh/ton, and the full production cost is 5580 - 5600 yuan/ton [21]. - **Ningxia F Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA, and currently 1 is operating. The second furnace is expected to start next month. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, with a limited - volume and fixed - price monthly supply of 1500 tons. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 ferrosilicon is 8000 kWh/ton [22]. - **Ningxia G Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 450,000 tons, it mainly produces common ferrosilicon. It has 8 furnaces of 45000KVA and mainly controls raw material and spot inventory. Its in - factory inventory is relatively sufficient compared to others [22]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon Market Expectation: Short - Term Oscillation Upward, Long - Term Overcapacity Warning - The surveyed enterprises generally believe that the main contract of ferrosilicon may be affected by the coking coal market and anti - involution funds, with the futures price oscillating upward, driving up the price of semi - coke and increasing the cost of ferrosilicon. There is a growing call for eliminating backward production capacity, and small - sized furnaces in Qinghai and Inner Mongolia may accelerate the capacity replacement process. However, after the market sentiment stabilizes, high supply and inventory may suppress the futures price. Two points should be continuously monitored: (1) The change in the hot metal output on the steel - making demand side. If the demand in the fourth - quarter peak season remains high and the hot metal output stays at a high level, the ferrosilicon inventory can support consumption. (2) The change in the demand for magnesium. Historically, the supply of magnesium increases in the fourth quarter, supporting the demand for ferrosilicon. Currently, low - price magnesium is scarce. The profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is much higher than that of 72. If the supply of magnesium recovers, some manufacturers may switch to producing 75 ferrosilicon. If the demand for magnesium is lower than expected, the high supply and inventory of 72 ferrosilicon may compress profits and force enterprises to shut down and reduce production [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: For RB2601, the closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.32%); trading volume was 883,015 lots, and the position decreased by 11,775 lots to 1,870,449 lots. For HC2601, the closing price was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.24%); trading volume was 337,428 lots, and the position increased by 1,955 lots to 1,369,716 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: In Shanghai, the spot price of rebar was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Hangzhou, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. For hot - rolled coils, in Shanghai, the price was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou, it was 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2601 was 123 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2601 was 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 was 36 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 [Macro and Industry News] - **Steel Union Weekly Data (September 25)**: Rebar production increased by 0.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 9.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 9.13 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.14 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 23.73 million tons [3]. - **Social Inventory in Mid - September**: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21 million tons (2.3%), and a year - on - year increase of 129 million tons (15.9%) [3][4]. - **National Steel Production in August**: The national production of crude steel was 7,737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 6,979 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 12,277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4]. - **National Economic Data (January - August)**: The added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year [4]. - **Important Article in 'Qiushi'**: The article emphasizes efforts to rectify low - price disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering irregularities, local investment promotion irregularities, promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and make up for the short - board of laws and regulations [4]. - **Steel Import and Export in August**: China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons (3.3%); imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons (10.6%) [4]. 3.3 [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4593.49 | ↑0.60 | | 6698.7 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4585 | ↑0.83 | -8.49 | 511.1 | 37193 | ↓5543 | 59117 | ↑154 | | IF2511 | 4571.2 | ↑0.94 | -22.29 | 39.3 | 2872 | ↓1711 | 4008 | ↓466 | | IF2512 | 4562.2 | ↑0.88 | -31.29 | 1103.9 | 80775 | ↓5752 | 154619 | ↑2755 | | I ...