Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities rebounded slightly, with the signal strength of the black and non - ferrous sectors rising, and local long signals appearing in the chemical and precious metals sectors. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are black and chemical, while the energy sector is weak. [3] - The comprehensive signal of the strategy is different for each commodity: methanol is neutral, float glass is long, iron ore is neutral, and Shanghai aluminum remains short. [5][8][11] Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Overall Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the black and non - ferrous sectors seeing an increase in signal strength, and local long signals emerging in the chemical and precious metals sectors. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are black and chemical, and the weak one is the energy sector. [3] Factor Performance and Signal Analysis Methanol - Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.12%, the demand factor decreased by 0.06%, the inventory factor increased by 0.12%, and the spread factor increased by 0.19%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral. On the fundamental side, the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral to bearish, and the spread is bullish. [4][5] Float Glass - Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.07%, the demand factor decreased by 0.07%, the inventory factor increased by 1.21%, and the composite factor increased by 0.88%. This week, the comprehensive signal is bullish. The supply is neutral, the demand is neutral to bearish, the inventory is bullish, the spread is neutral to bearish, and the profit is neutral to bullish. [8] Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.29%, the inventory and spread factors remained unchanged, and the composite factor weakened by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral. The supply signal turns neutral, the demand signal turns bearish, the inventory remains neutral, and the spread signal turns bullish. [11] Shanghai Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.60%, the demand factor decreased by 0.41%, the inventory factor increased by 0.65%, the spread factor increased by 0.54%, and the composite factor increased by 0.37%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains bearish. The supply signal remains bearish, the demand signal remains bullish, the inventory turns neutral, and the spread signal remains bearish. [11] Sector - Specific Analysis - **Non - ferrous sector**: The cross - sectional momentum rebounded, the position increased, and the cross - sectional differentiation narrowed, but zinc and nickel were still relatively weak. [3] - **Black sector**: The overall position factor increased marginally, the term structure differentiation expanded, and iron ore was relatively strong in the cross - section. [3] - **Energy and chemical sector**: The cross - sectional momentum was differentiated, with ethylene glycol being relatively strong and energy varieties being relatively weak. [3] - **Agricultural products**: The position of oils and fats decreased slightly. [3] - **Precious metals**: The time - series momentum of gold stabilized, and the differentiation within the sector narrowed. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - Ethylene: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Plastics: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly positive) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ (Slightly positive) [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified [1] - Propylene: Not specified [1] Core Views - The olefin and polyolefin futures markets showed different trends. Olefin futures had a strong start, but the propylene fundamentals were weak. Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals remained soft [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had different performances. Pure benzene had short - term support and different monthly spread operation suggestions. Benzene - styrene had a price increase, but the supply - demand contradiction was difficult to improve [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA were stable but faced supply - demand issues. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but supply might increase. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. - The methanol market rose due to cost - side news, and its sustainability was uncertain. The urea market was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [6]. - The PVC market was strong due to news, and the caustic soda market was also strong under macro influence [7]. - The soda ash and glass markets were affected by macro and upstream news, and their long - term trends depended on capacity reduction implementation [8]. Section Summaries Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures opened higher and closed up on the first day, expected to be strong in the short term. However, the propylene supply - demand was imbalanced, and it was in the off - season [2]. - Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals were weak. Polyethylene demand was poor, and polypropylene downstream demand was also weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene spot prices slightly declined, but the price trend was upward. It had short - term support from inventory and seasonal expectations. Different monthly spread operations were suggested for different periods [3]. - Benzene - styrene futures rose. Supply and demand both increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate, with the supply - demand contradiction difficult to improve [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA were stable, with PTA continuing to accumulate inventory and having limited supply - demand drivers. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but might face supply increases. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to cost - side news, and its upward trend's sustainability was uncertain. The inventory of production enterprises changed little, and the coastal area had sufficient supply [6]. - Urea futures were expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with supply sufficient, demand structure changing, and policy support [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strong due to news, and the industry had some old - age capacity. The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [7]. - Caustic soda was strong under macro influence, with profit improvement and attention to old - age capacity reduction [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a daily limit up, with inventory decreasing and supply under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry continued to cut production [8]. - Glass had a daily limit up, with prices rising. Its long - term trend depended on capacity reduction implementation [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Paper pulp: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Apple: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Logs: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - 20 - rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish and the trend is emerging (Two stars represent a clear rising trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market is strong. The domestic anti - involution policy promotes commodity price increases. Different soft commodities show different trends and investment suggestions are mainly temporary observation or short - term operations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong commodity market and domestic policies. The 9 - 1 spread decreased. Cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. Downstream cotton procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new season. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume and strong prices. Macroscopically, pay attention to the details of Sino - US trade agreements. Suggest temporary observation or intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices declined. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugar - cane harvest, and the sugar - cane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. As the overall harvest progress is slow this year, the sugar - cane crushing volume and sugar production have decreased significantly year - on - year. In July, rainfall in the main production areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year; imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 103,500 tons year - on - year. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples are on the market, cold - storage merchants are more willing to sell, and cold - storage apple prices are falling. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large, and the inventory pressure is not significant. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. Suggest temporary observation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment is optimistic, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet is stable, while the European price is stable with a slight decline. The price of the Thai raw material market continues to rise. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" has entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rain to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tire plants continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire plants continued to rise significantly. Tire manufacturers that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and tire inventory has increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, as counted by Longzhong, dropped to 634,600 tons, and both bonded - area and general - trade inventories decreased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber, as counted by Zhuochuang, dropped to 12,600 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene dropped significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 4,100 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year. In June, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 18.578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. Pulp valuation is low. Last Friday, China introduced more anti - involution policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on adjusting the structure, optimizing supply, and eliminating backward production capacity. Suggest temporary observation or light - position buying on dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound volume is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters. The overall national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, and there is some positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the power for price rebound is insufficient. Suggest temporary observation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 79,555 with a rise of 895; SMM flat - water copper premium is 175 with a rise of 50 [1] Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,890 with a rise of 190; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 100 with a fall of 10; Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,185 with a rise of 15; Australian alumina FOB average price is 370 dollars with no change [1] Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,800 with a rise of 100; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 110 with a rise of 5; Recycled refined lead average price is 16,775 with a rise of 75; Scrap - refined spread is 25 with a rise of 25 [1] Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,820 with a rise of 500; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 10 with a fall of 15 [1] Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 267,200 with a rise of 1,700; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 80 with a fall of 150; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 255,200 with a rise of 1,700; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.51% [1] Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 122,200 with a rise of 1,400; 1 imported nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 350 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,850 with a rise of 1,400; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,000 with no change [1] Silicon - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 (with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal) is 9,850 with a rise of 150; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 675 with a fall of 335; 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,900; Polysilicon dense material average price is 31; Granular silicon average price is 30.5; N - type polysilicon material average price is 46 [1] Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,000 with a rise of 1,350; Battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 2,960 with a fall of 650; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,350; Battery - industrial carbon spread is 1,650 with a rise of 50 [1]

| 11/11/2 | >国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月22日 | | | 黄金 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | 白银 ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★关税-10欧盟外交官:欧盟正在探索对美国关税采取更广泛的潜在反制措施,但仍优先与美国通过谈判解 决问题。②印尼：19%的美国关税可能在8月1日前生效，取决于联合声明。③美国财长贝森特：更关心高质 量的交易，而不是在8月1日前完成交易。不必与欧洲闹僵。④印度贸易代表团已返回印度，预计将在九月至 十月前与美国达成交易。 ★①美国白宫:特朗普没有解雇鲍威尔的计划。②美国共和党众议员Luna发函司法部,发函司法部称鲍威尔 两次作伪证,提出刑事指控。③美联储在其官网的"常见问题页面"新增了总部翻修工程的视频导览内容。 ④据Semafor: 特朗普政府官员考虑在审查美联储翻新工程 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

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Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, and the influencing factors include supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - economic factors. The investment strategies for different commodities mainly include waiting and seeing, intraday trading, or taking appropriate positions at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices pulled back today. The basis of domestic cotton spot sales was firm, and spot trading was average. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton was due to tight commercial cotton inventories and the possibility of a soft squeeze. Cotton yarn prices rose, but market trading did not improve significantly. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2829800 tons, a decrease of 628900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392300 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder was 115500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increase in production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. It is expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices weakened. The demand for apples was low due to the large supply of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&MR rose slightly, and BR rose significantly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The downstream demand improved, the rubber supply increased, the natural rubber inventory increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. The market sentiment improved, and there were potential policy benefits. The strategy is to go long on rebounds [5] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2181000 tons, a 0.2 - million - ton increase from the previous period. China's pulp imports in June were still relatively high. Currently, the import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [6] Timber - The futures price continued to rebound, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports in China was 62400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6.12%. The total port inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70000 cubic meters. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand timber will remain low, but domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean oil, Palm oil [4] - **Hold Recommendations**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal, Rapeseed oil, Corn [3][6][7] - **Sell Recommendations**: None 2. Core Views - The overall market for agricultural products is influenced by factors such as weather, policies, and trade relations. Uncertainties in these aspects lead to a volatile market, and short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - For soybean - related products, the end of the Sino - US tariff suspension period and US weather conditions add uncertainties, and the market is expected to be volatile [2][3][4] - In the palm oil market, policies and weather play important roles. With the long - term development trends of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the entry of palm oil into the production cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] - For rapeseed products, the market is affected by import policies and demand, and prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6] - The corn market is mainly affected by auction results and supply in the circulation link, and futures may continue to trade at the bottom [7] - The pig market is influenced by policies and supply fundamentals. With sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - selling hedging on rallies [8] - The egg market shows a seasonal rebound, but there are differences between near - term and far - term contracts due to supply and demand factors [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans are showing a volatile and strong trend. Northeast China and North China are expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, while US soybean - growing areas face high - temperature risks in the future 6 - 14 days [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The end of the Sino - US tariff suspension period has made the market focus on China's purchase of US soybeans. US soybean prices have rebounded, and the domestic oil mill crush rate is stable with increasing soybean meal inventory. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile before the tariff and weather issues are clear [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil prices rose due to market expectations at the beginning of July, but there were signs of profit - taking after the new policy. US soybean - growing areas face high - temperature risks, and European high - temperature risks in August also need attention. The US soybean oil spot is strong, and the palm oil market shows different trends in different regions. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and short - term attention should be paid to weather and policies [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded slightly, and inventories are basically the same as last week. Import policies are complex, and the rapeseed meal market is boosted by seasonal demand, while the rapeseed oil market follows the vegetable oil sector. Prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6] Corn - The auction of imported US corn had a low成交 rate, and the domestic corn market has no major contradictions. Dalian corn futures may continue to trade at the bottom [7] Pig - The pig futures rose on Monday due to policies. The government has set a clear target for the sow inventory. With sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - selling hedging on rallies [8] Egg - Egg prices are in a seasonal rebound, with small - sized eggs having greater price cuts and large - sized eggs rising. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom [9]