Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and the expectation of the peak season support the lead price, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short - term [1] - For zinc, the market has an increase in both ore and ingot supply while demand is in the off - season, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend and weak fundamentals. It is expected that the zinc price will trade weakly in a range in the short - term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875.00 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 17,085.00 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the basis was - 210.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; LME 0 - 3 spread was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, SMM lead ingot five - region inventory was 6.34 million tons, an increase of 0.56 million tons from July 7 and 0.24 million tons from July 10; LME inventory was 260,950 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 55,130 tons, up 4.21% [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment maintenance last week, reducing production slightly. For secondary lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1] 3.2 Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,110.00 yuan/ton, down 1.12%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,250.00 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the basis was - 140.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan; LME 0 - 3 spread was - 5.61 dollars/ton, down 5.25 dollars [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, SMM zinc ingot seven - region inventory was 9.31 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons from July 7 and 0.28 million tons from July 10. On July 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 8150 tons to 113,400 tons, up 7.74%, all from Singapore warehouses; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 9,171 tons, up 3.36% [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tightness of zinc concentrate has improved, and the production limit on smelters due to raw material shortage has weakened. The demand is in the off - season, and overall purchases are limited [1] 3.3 Industry News - As of July 14, SMM lead ingot five - region inventory increased compared to earlier dates [1] - In the first half of 2025, the national non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment was 6.993 billion yuan, up 23.9% year - on - year. Investment in lead - zinc mines increased to some extent [1] - As of July 14, SMM zinc ingot seven - region inventory increased compared to earlier dates, and LME zinc inventory increased on July 14 [1] 3.4 Investment Strategy - For lead, expect short - term range - bound trading [1] - For zinc, expect short - term weakly range - bound trading and consider short - selling on rallies [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The global electrolytic copper total inventory continues to accumulate due to factors such as disturbances in overseas copper mine production or transportation, the significant impact of the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and Trump's government's tariff policies. Copper prices may still have downward space. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,430, down 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 79,136 lots, down 2,530; the open interest was 172,204 lots, down 6,478. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720, down 265 [2]. - **London Copper Futures**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic) on July 14 was 9,643.5, down 19.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 109,625 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.5255, down 0.1. The total inventory was 236,454 tons, an increase of 5,311 tons [2]. Industry News - **CSPT Meeting**: In the second - quarter general manager's office meeting in 2025, CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fee [2]. - **US Treasury Plan**: The US Treasury plans to raise its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September through increasing the scale of weekly standard - fixed - rate bond auctions, which helps reduce market shocks [2]. Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The world's (China's) port copper concentrate departure (loading, inventory) volume has changed compared to last week. Due to the Sino - US trade dispute, the willingness of traders to accept US scrap copper is low. However, the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper economically viable, and the scrap copper import window may open, but the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in July may decrease month - on - month, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - **Smelting Plants**: Some smelting plants have production problems. For example, Glencore's EKSAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Suned copper smelter in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Some new smelting plants are expected to be put into production, such as the Kanoa - Tabula smelter in the Congo (Kinshasa) and some domestic projects [3]. Downstream Situation - **Copper Rod**: The processing fee of copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory due to high finished - product inventories, but new orders have slightly improved. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared to last week [3]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable has increased compared to last week. The raw material inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of copper cable wrapping have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days of cable - wrapping enterprises have decreased [3]. - **Other Products**: The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip has increased, but the downstream demand is weak due to the traditional consumption off - season. The capacity utilization rate of steel pipes has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase or decrease [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,400 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (5.0 - 6.3 and 6.0 - 7.0) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at a high level, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. However, due to national policy - guided clearance of lithium carbonate and the impact of automobile consumption, the prices of domestic and imported lithium carbonate may have an upward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in appropriate quantities and pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Lithium Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with July 11, 2025. The trading volume of the active contract was 1,014,558.00 hands, an increase of 611,742.00 hands; the open interest was 356,161.00 hands, an increase of 33,301.00 hands; the inventory was 11,204.00 tons, a decrease of 399.00 tons [1]. - **Lithium Spot**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, metal lithium, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 64,650.00 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, an increase of 900.00 yuan/ton compared with July 11, 2025 [1]. Lithium - Related Company News - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium mica project phase I with an annual capacity of 816,000 tons of lithium concentrate per month has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's project in Xilin Gol League may be put into production in October 2025, and the total production and sales will reach 21,970 tons per year [3]. - Panasonic Holdings will postpone the production plan of its new EV battery factory in Kansas, USA. Derui Power is promoting the acceptance work of its new production capacity, which will be gradually released according to sales and orders, with the initial production mainly focusing on lithium - manganese and lithium - iron primary batteries [2]. - OaoL plans to produce at least 100 tons of silicon - graphite composite anode materials per year after investing $11 - 20 million in its Moses Lake plant. OneD Battery Sciences has closed its pilot manufacturing plant in Moses Lake due to tariff policies [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in China is expected to increase. Some production lines are under maintenance or capacity upgrading. The inventory of lithium carbonate in China has increased compared with last week. The production of lithium hydroxide in July may decrease, and its inventory may increase [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate in China is 10,600 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and its production volume may increase. The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is 29,500 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4]. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Strategy**: Some companies' production capacity expansion and project progress are in progress. The export volume of some products may change. For example, the export volume of lithium salt in China may be affected by the global supply - demand situation. The production and inventory of various materials such as cobalt, ternary precursors, and ternary materials also show different trends [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in appropriate quantities in the domestic lithium carbonate market, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The Fed's expected timing of interest rate cuts is delayed, but due to the slower - than - expected bond - issuing pace of the US Treasury, combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 777.46 yuan/g, with a change of 8.16 yuan compared to a certain reference and 5.95 yuan compared to another reference. The trading volume was 38,158, and the open interest was 214,998 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3370.30, the trading volume was 180,941, and the open interest was 254,790. The inventory was 36,748,662.05 troy ounces [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3332.15 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.00 dollars compared to a certain reference and - 0.95 dollars compared to another reference [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9172.00 yuan/kg, the trading volume was 1,017,134, and the open interest was 3,243,004 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.41 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 21,699, and the open interest was 131,773. The inventory was 499,281,076.24 troy ounces [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 37.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.50 dollars compared to a certain reference and 2.11 dollars compared to another reference [1]. Important Information - **Tariff Policies**: The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. Trump threatens Russia with 100% tariffs if an agreement is not reached within 50 days. Brazil seeks to reduce tariffs to 30% and delay for 90 days. The Trump administration imposes a 17% anti - dumping tariff on Mexican tomatoes [1]. - **US Treasury's Plan**: The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to 500 billion and 850 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury auction scale [1]. - **Central Bank Policies and Economic Data**: - The Fed's July interest rate cut probability is low due to higher - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, but the expected timing of rate cuts is still September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June. The market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in June and may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January and may reduce quarterly Treasury purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 35 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 830 - 8600 and the resistance level around 9000 - 10000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, and low - buying opportunities can be noted. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround still lies in exports. (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.17%) to 1731 yuan/ton, UR05 remained unchanged at 1738 yuan/ton, UR09 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.51%) to 1764 yuan/ton. Shandong decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.15%) to 1820 yuan/ton, and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small and Large Grains)**: Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.54%) to 1840 yuan/ton, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 1790 yuan/ton, Northeast remained unchanged at 1880 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 1840 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.20%) to 5000 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1765 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1768 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1750 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1761 yuan/ton, and the持仓 volume was 197,992 thousand [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Pay attention to low - buying opportunities considering the support from July's top - dressing demand. But be aware of the significant downward pressure on urea prices if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to September/December, and the strengthening of the US dollar may limit the upward space for non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, which may lead to adjustments in aluminum prices. However, due to policy - driven elimination of backward alumina production capacity, alumina prices may still have room to rise [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen has started production, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices have remained flat or declined, which may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and transformation projects are in progress, and overseas projects such as Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and SPIC's Guinean project may increase overseas alumina production in July [2]. - **Cost and price**: The average daily full production cost of domestic alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton. Due to the possible decline in Guinean bauxite prices and policy - driven elimination of backward capacity, alumina prices may still rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 2,900 - 3,000 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,500 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has decreased compared to last week. The continuous accumulation of alumina inventory in Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants has led to a loose supply expectation [11][15]. - **Basis and spread**: The alumina basis and monthly spread are positive but at low levels. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in July due to capacity transfers and new project startups. Import volume may also increase due to production changes in overseas plants [3][62]. - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton. In the off - season, smelting profits remain high, but downstream demand is weakening, and aluminum prices may face adjustment pressure. It is recommended that investors take a callback approach in the short term, paying attention to support and resistance levels for SHFE and LME aluminum contracts [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased compared to last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has also increased [43][48]. - **Basis and spread**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, while the monthly spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) monthly spread is negative and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term, light - position, high - selling arbitrage opportunities for SHFE aluminum basis and spreads, and temporarily wait and see for LME aluminum monthly spread arbitrage opportunities [38][41]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy may decrease [6][82]. - **Cost and price**: The daily full production cost of domestic primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profits. Due to production losses and increasing inventory, casting aluminum alloy prices may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try to go short on the main contract at high levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 19,500 - 19,700 and resistance levels around 19,900 - 20,000 [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum alloy has increased, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [6][88]. Downstream Processing Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week, affected by the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [94][96].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation in the short - term, but the volatility may increase. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. In the long - term, the selling pressure on the upper side after the rebound of the futures market may stimulate the resumption of production in the southwest region, and there is still upward pressure [1]. - The polysilicon price may continue a relatively strong trend in the short - term, driven by bullish sentiment and the rise of industrial silicon, but the upward space may be limited. It is advisable to consider taking profits on previous long positions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.16% to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.09% to 9,300 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 3.33% to 8,695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements with no resumption news. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease on the supply side, there may be a reduction [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, with some silicon material factories planning to resume production in July, bringing some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, with overall operation declining, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stockpile at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material decreased by 1.12% to 44 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.09% to 45.5 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 43.5 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 43.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, generally remaining within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak overall, with the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials increasing. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - After the domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotations on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has carried out transactions at the new prices over the weekend, and battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. At the same time, the 210 and 210R models of battery cells have gradually started transactions at 0.26 yuan/w [1]. - A 1,200 - ton/day photovoltaic glass kiln in Anhui was cold - repaired today. As of now, the cold - repaired kiln capacity in July in China is 3,600 tons/day, and there is still a planned cold - repaired capacity of 1,400 tons/day in the follow - up of July [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price center of ethylene glycol has moderately strengthened, but the support from the fundamentals will gradually weaken as polyester product inventories increase and multiple ethylene glycol plants restart [2]. - The trading of polyester filament remains average, and downstream players mostly continue to hold a wait - and - see attitude [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - On July 14, 2025, the price of crude oil was $584.25 per ton, with a 1.14% increase; the price of the northeast Asian ethylene price index was $821 per ton, with no change; the ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region was $640 per ton, with no change [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity was $4331 per ton on July 14, 2025, with a 0.32% increase; the closing price of the nearby contract was $4226 per ton [1]. - The price index of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and bottle - grade chips showed different price levels and changes on July 14, 2025 [1]. Device and Production Information - A 380,000 - ton/year EO - EG co - production device in East China has restarted, increasing the supply of ethylene glycol [2]. - The operating rate of the polyester PTA factory was 81.86% on a certain date, and the operating rate of the weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry was 59.12% [1]. Transaction and Market Information - On July 14, the spot of ethylene glycol had a small - scale upward movement, and the trading of polyester filament was still average [2]. - The downstream players mostly maintained a wait - and - see attitude, and the cost support for ethylene glycol was insufficient [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for summer travel in the US is higher than expected, and the strong gasoline demand boosts market confidence. OPEC+ is optimistic about gasoline demand in the third quarter. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August, which postpones market concerns. PTA will see new installations put into production in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. The PX supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates, and the fundamentals are weakening. The PTA market is affected by the strong crude oil market, and the downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than last year. The PTA spot basis has rebounded from the bottom. However, with new installations expected on the supply side and no improvement in demand during the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, and due to weak supply - demand expectations, prices have fallen across the board. If polyester production cuts deepen, industry chain contradictions will intensify. The cost - side strength drives the profit distribution pattern to tilt towards raw materials again. PTA will fluctuate, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply, and downstream buying enthusiasm is waning. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 14, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.98 per barrel, down 2.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.21 per barrel, down 1.63%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on July 11 was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on July 14 was $740 per ton, up 2.85%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) on July 14 was $852 per ton, up 1.83% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,740 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, up 0.72%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.45%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The CCFEI price index of foreign PTA on July 11 was $624 per ton, down 1.58%. The near - far month spread was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [1]. - **PX**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 1.25%; the settlement price was 6,748 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%; the settlement price was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,813 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Chinese Taipei) was $851 per ton, up 1.67%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $826 per ton, up 1.72%. The PXN spread was $267.75 per ton, up 8.99%; the PX - MX spread was $112 per ton, down 4.41%. The basis was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 84 yuan per ton [1]. - **PR**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,050 yuan per ton, down 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 14, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 0.28 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 59.12%, unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament was 37%, up 1 percentage point; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 74%, up 33 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 144%, up 83 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA has slightly rebounded, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,740 yuan per ton (up 0.64%), and the daily trading volume was 1.01 million lots. The PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.86%), and the daily trading volume was 228,200 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,920 yuan per ton (up 0.58%), and the daily trading volume was 53,700 lots. The international oil price has declined. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since the Politburo meeting in July last year, the policy level has continuously emphasized "anti-involution." The recent meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has elevated anti-involution to the national strategic level, raising market expectations for a new round of supply-side reforms [8]. - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the off-season demand characteristics of finished products are not obvious recently. Varieties such as rebar and hot-rolled coils have not effectively accumulated inventory during the off-season. Coupled with the current policy window period, steel prices are supported to some extent. The rebound pressure of rebar should be noted at the valley electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated and rebounded. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (+50), and that in Tangshan was 3,150 yuan (+40). For hot-rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+50), and that in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan (+50) [6]. - As of July 10, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products increased by 1,770 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory decreased by 2,120 tons. The apparent demand was 873,070 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 121,900 tons [7]. - As of July 11, on the long-process spot side, the cash含税 cost of rebar in East China's long process was 2,932.5 yuan, and the point-to-point profit was about 257.5 yuan. The cash含税 profit of hot-rolled coils in the long process was about 267.5 yuan. On the electric furnace side, the flat-electric furnace cost in East China (Fubao caliber) was about 3,304 yuan, and the valley-electric cost was about 3,173 yuan. The flat-electric profit of rebar in East China was about -204 yuan, and the valley-electric profit was about -73 yuan [7]. - As of July 10, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 29.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; among them, the daily consumption of 132 long-process steel mills was 255,000 tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 6,100 tons; the daily consumption of short-process was 14,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 320 tons. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 461,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,300 tons, a decrease of 3.2%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.621 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 92,700 tons, a decrease of 2%. Overall, the iron-scrap price difference rebounded from a low level this period. After the cost of the long process increased, the price of scrap steel also began to rise. It is expected that the cost of the electric furnace will further increase [7]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Production and Inventory Data**: The report provides detailed production and inventory data of five major steel products from May 2, 2025, to July 11, 2025, including rebar, hot-rolled coils, medium and heavy plates, wire rods, and cold-rolled coils [10]. - **Crude Steel Production**: In 2024, the crude steel production was 1.00509 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative crude steel production was 432 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [16]. - **Monetary Data**: In May 2025, the newly added social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 113 billion yuan compared with April, higher than the Wind consensus expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of the social financing stock in May was 8.7%, the same as that in April, slightly lower than the Wind consensus expectation of 8.8%. The newly added RMB loans in the social financing caliber in May were 59.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.37 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50.76 billion yuan compared with April [18]. - **PMI Data**: The PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with May [21]. - **Investment Data**: From January to May 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.91947 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was flat year-on-year [26]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to May 2025, the national new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the housing sales area was 70.53 million square meters, a decrease of 4.6%; the housing completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [29]. - **Crude Steel Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a detailed supply and demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel production, crude steel imports, crude steel exports, and inventory [32]. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink [45]. Supply - **Long-Process Supply**: As of July 11, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 239,800 tons, a decrease of 1,040 tons compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43% [48]. - **Short-Process Supply**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 29.6% (+0.7). As of July 11, the iron-scrap price difference was -148.64 yuan (+48.7) [51]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased month-on-month. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased month-on-month [7]. - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 216,660 tons (-44,200), of which the long-process output was 189,740 tons (-55,000), and the short-process output was 26,920 tons (+10,800) [64]. Demand - **Building Materials Transactions**: The report provides transaction data of building materials in different regions, including the northern, eastern, and southern regions [67][69][71]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 40.79%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points compared with last week, and the increase rate expanded by 0.14 percentage points [75]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The report provides high-frequency sales data of 30 cities in the real estate market [77]. - **Rebar Inventory**: This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 180,880 tons (+410), the social inventory was 359,490 tons (-5,250), and the total inventory was 540,370 tons (-4,840) [80]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 323,140 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 tons. The apparent demand was 322,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 510 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,140 tons, with the overall inventory increasing by 630 tons [83]. - **Plate Demand**: As of July 11, the cold-hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 480 yuan/ton (+20) [90]. - **Export Situation**: As of July 11, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars (-), and the export profit was -18.6 US dollars (-5.2). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 3.1363 million tons (+691,200) [96].