宏源期货煤焦日报 2、美国联邦巡回上诉法院29日批准特朗普政府的请求,暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 3、据调研，截止5月29日共有7家山东钢厂初步确认了全年新生产计划,调整后粗钢产量5563万吨,较去年同期下降350万吨左右。 4、本周Mysteel五大钢材品神供应880.85万吨,周环比升8.41万吨,增幅为1%。五大钢材总库存1367.5万吨,周环比降31.04万吨,降 幅2.2%;五大品种周消费量为911.89万吨,其中建材消费环比降3.5%,板材消费环比升3.5%。 5、商务部回应中美经贸磋商新动向表示，中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来,双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持沟通。 6、5月29日,全国主港铁矿石成交108.70万吨,环比减8.3%;237家主流贸易商建筑钢材成交12.26万吨,环比增30.9%。 7、本周,唐山主要仓库及港口同口径钢坯库存75.91万吨,周环比增加1.32万吨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that MEG will operate in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton and suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting next week, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. Supply may remain low in May - June due to device maintenance and technical transformation plans. Although some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, the actual implementation is limited. Short - term port inventory may tighten due to fewer arrivals and high downstream pick - up volumes [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, the price of ethylene glycol trended weakly. In the first half of the week, influenced by polyester production cut news, the demand side had a downward revision expectation, and the futures market declined. In the second half, the market was in narrow consolidation, and the supply side also showed losses. The overall fundamentals had no significant changes, and weak downstream demand and high macro uncertainties led to an oscillating and回调 trend. Next week, the market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. On the supply side, some devices had short - term outages, and there are maintenance and technical transformation plans, so domestic production in May - June will remain low. On the demand side, although some polyester manufacturers announced production cuts, the actual implementation was limited. In terms of port inventory, short - term arrivals are few, and downstream pick - up volumes are high, so short - term spot liquidity will tighten [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The impact of large - scale device production cuts is gradually dissipating. This week, the trading volume was 1.25 million lots, and the open interest was 274,200 lots (- 17,500 lots). On May 23, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton (- 1.28%) compared to May 16. The settlement price on May 23 was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (- 1.54%) compared to May 16 [8][11][13] - Spot: The high - end domestic spot price was 4597 yuan/ton (May 19), and the low - end was 4471 yuan/ton (May 22). The average basis this week was 95.75 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 106.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets remained inverted, with a spread of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [15] 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - Device: The overall operating rate dropped to a low for the year, from 55.94% (May 13 - 19) to 55.13% (May 20 - 26). The operating rate of petroleum - based production was 58.11%, coal - based was 49.90%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. Some devices had short - term outages, restarts, or load adjustments. For example, Sanjiang Petrochemical's second - phase device had a short - term outage on May 21 and is currently recovering [19][22][24] - Production Profit: The price of thermal coal continued to decline, but due to the stop - rising and回调 of ethylene glycol spot prices this week, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol slightly decreased [31] - Inventory: Before early June, the arrival of goods at the main ports for trade will be scarce, and the de - stocking of visible inventory is expected to accelerate. As of May 22, the MEG port inventory was 575,100 tons, a decrease of 77,700 tons (- 7.90%) compared to the previous period. The polyester production cut plan has not been strongly implemented, and port pick - up volumes have not significantly decreased [35][37][38] 4. Fundamental Analysis - International Oil Price: Multiple factors are intertwined, causing high - volatility in international oil prices [43] - Polyester Products: The cost of polyester staple fiber decreased, leading to a price decline, while the average market price of polyester chips increased. The cost support for polyester products still exists, and polyester factories are maintaining prices, causing the profit of the polyester industry chain to move downstream. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.86%. The domestic sales of grey fabrics were average, while foreign trade orders were increasing. The average weekly polyester production - sales ratio from May 19 - 23 was estimated to be 40%. The inventory of polyester filament products started to increase after reaching a low level [45][50][56]

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/5/29 | 元/吨 | 8925.00 | 8900.00 | 0.28% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/29 元/吨 7250.00 7250.00 0.00% CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | | | | | | | 2025/5/29 7250.00 7250.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 | | | | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/29 元/吨 | | | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/29 元/吨 6530.00 6500.00 0.46% | | | | | | | 2025/5/29 5905.00 5880.00 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 元/吨 0.43% | | | | | | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/29 元/吨 6040.00 5960.00 1.34% | | | | | | | 装置 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recent continuous decline of urea, with the main contract falling below 1800, is due to cost collapse from continuous coal - price decline and lagging demand caused by weather - related delays in agricultural demand in some domestic regions [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of further sharp decline in urea price is low [1] - The risk to consider is the change in export policy [1] - The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.47%), UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.46%), and UR09 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic small - particle spot prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 8 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of urea futures main contract 2509 was 1794 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1810 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1773 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1784 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1791 yuan/ton, and the position was 219438 lots [1]

| 甲醇日评20250530: 向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/5/28 | 单位 | 2025/5/29 | 指标 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2289.00 | 2279.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 0.45% | 2232.00 | 2222.00 | 10.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 2218.00 | 2206.00 | 元/吨 | 12.00 | 0.54% | | | | | 2230.00 | 2237.50 | -0.34% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | -7.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2150.00 | 2155.00 | -5.00 | -0.23% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2265.00 | 2265.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed officials are cautious about cutting interest rates due to inflation risks, and the concentrated maturity of US Treasury bonds from June to July may cause a liquidity shock. However, due to the difficult - to - reduce US fiscal deficit, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Indicators - **US**: The scale of short - term Treasury bonds maturing in June and July is $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion respectively, which may cause a liquidity shock. The May SPGI manufacturing and service PMI were both higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has been postponed to September/December due to concerns about inflation rebound. The US Treasury's cash account balance may decrease to release liquidity, and the CBO predicts that the Treasury funds may be exhausted as early as August - September, which will make the Fed slow down the reduction of its balance sheet [2][7][11]. - **Europe**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and is expected to cut interest rates in June and about twice more before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May and is expected to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [2]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still a possibility of further interest - rate hikes as some officials hope to raise rates to 1% in the second and third quarters [3][4]. 3.2 US Treasury Bond Market - **Inflation Expectation**: The implied medium - and long - term inflation expectation of US Treasury bonds has begun to decline, although the one - year and five - year consumer inflation expectations in May continue to rise [15][17]. - **Yield**: The medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields have begun to decline but are still at a high level. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bond yields remain stable. The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury bond yields is positive but narrowing [18][20][21][26]. - **Financial Pressure Index**: The US OFR financial pressure index has increased compared with last week [29][31]. 3.3 US Economic Indicators - **Loan and Credit**: The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks has increased, while the weekly rate of credit card and car loans has decreased [33][35]. - **Retail Sales**: The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales has increased, indicating that the US consumer industry remains prosperous [37][39]. - **Mortgage**: The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms have increased, causing the MBA mortgage application activity index to decline. The sales volume of new and existing homes in April has increased [41][43]. - **Unemployment**: The number of initial jobless claims is lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims is higher than expected and the previous value, indicating that the labor demand in the US job market remains strong [45][47]. 3.4 International Bond Yield and Exchange Rate - **Bond Yield Difference**: The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany has increased [49][51]. - **Exchange Rate**: The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar [52][53]. 3.5 Precious Metal Market - **Gold**: The volatility of the US gold ETF index has decreased. The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures price premium is in a reasonable range. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going long on the SHFE gold basis [54][57][61][66][72]. - **Silver**: The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has decreased. The domestic silver futures and spot price premiums are in a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for silver - related arbitrage opportunities [77][81][85]. - **Precious Metal Ratio**: The "gold - to - silver ratio" is far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going short on the "gold - to - silver ratio". The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" are also far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years, and corresponding arbitrage opportunities are recommended [97][99][100][102].

宏源期货有限公司 玉米：震荡运行，等待驱动 肖锋波（F3022345）（Z0012557) 目录 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 第三部分 未来展望 1 第一部分：行情回顾 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CBOT玉米主力合约收盘价（美分/蒲式耳） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 CBOT玉米期货和期权:管理基金净多持仓（手） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 数据来源：Wind、钢联、宏源期货研究所 大连玉米期货合约持仓量（万手） 3 • 近期国内玉米期价震荡运行，持仓量持稳。截至5月27日，大商所玉米期货主力合约收盘价2324元/吨， 周环比上涨0.52%；玉米期货合约持仓量20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous decline of urea prices is mainly due to cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions. However, exports and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea is not high. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1713 yuan/ton on May 28, down 23 yuan/ton (-1.32%) from May 27; UR05 closed at 1729 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-1.09%); UR09 closed at 1790 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.32%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, the price was 1860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.54%); in Jiangsu, it was 1900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (1.06%). Prices in other regions remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 151 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from May 27; the spread of 01 - 05 was -16 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2540 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5340 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5550 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1813 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1816 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1790 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1793 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 223758 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see; Medium - term: Go long on dips [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries are offset by the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State. This may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price was 257,000 yuan, down 7,690 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 96,332 lots, an increase of 64,437 lots; the open interest was 28,221 lots, an increase of 15,738 lots; the inventory was 7,984 tons, a decrease of 14 tons. The basis between spot and futures was 7,900 yuan, an increase of 7,790 yuan [1]. - **London Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was $31,495, down $915 from the previous day. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -$55, an increase of $56; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $27, an increase of $7. The global inventory was 2,680 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Price Ratio**: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.17 on May 28, 2025, down 0.01 from the previous day [1]. Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share through an off - market conditional offer. The acquisition is subject to relevant regulatory approvals in Australia [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Myanmar, the Manxiang mine in Wa State has adjusted its fee standards, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产. Domestic tin concentrate processing fees are oscillating downward, indicating a tightening supply of tin ore. The expected increase in scrap tin supply is difficult to change the tight situation. The operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi have decreased. Malaysia's MSC has suspended tin production, and Indonesia has adjusted its export policies. The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, while the social inventory in China has increased [1]. - **Demand Side**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding strips has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate and inventory of tin solder in May in China. The import and export volume of welding strips may change accordingly. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in May may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries in China has remained flat [1].