Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View -中美互征关税缓和引导抢出口预期，国内电解铜社会库存量处于低位，但传统消费淡季来临，或使沪铜价格涨跌两难，建议投资者短线轻仓逢低试多主力合约，关注74600 - 76600附近支撑位及78500 - 80000附近压力位，伦铜在9000 - 9800附近支撑位及9600 - 9800附近压力位，美铜在4.3 - 4.5附近支撑位及5.0 - 5.5附近压力位 [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - 美国7月到期以短期为主国债规模分别为1.28 - 1.46万亿美元，美债集中到期或引发流动性冲击；5月ISM制造业PMI为49.5，低于预期和前值，因特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费端通胀反弹担忧，使美联储降息预期时点仍在9/12月 [3][4] Upstream - 紫金矿业旗下莫阿·卡库拉铜矿5月28日因矿震暂停地下深矿；印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司8月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高出口税；铜陵有色位于厄瓜多尔拉铁拉多铜矿二期6万吨产能或于26年下半年投产；巨龙铜矿新扩建二期200万吨/日扩建工程或于25年底投产；ACC Metals的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产，初期年产量为2.5万吨；国内6月铜精矿生产（进口）量环比或有增减，中国铜精矿进口指数为负且较上周升高；国内废铜进口窗口打开，但欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口，中国进口商仅能采购铜米或黄铜，中美贸易争端影响使贸易商尚未恢复直接进口美国废铜，国内电解铜与光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性，国内废铜6月生产（进口）量环比或减少；嘉能可位于菲律宾的PASAR铜冶炼厂已停产，位于智利的阿尔托诺特冶炼厂35万吨阳极铜产能因冶炼烧炉问题暂停生产至6月，紫金3.anov = Ikabul冶炼厂或于25年6月建成投产，年产60万吨阴极铜；国内6月粗铜检修产能或环比减少，国内6月粗铜生产量（进口量）环比或增加（减少）；江铜云源二期年产15万吨阴极铜项目3月底开工建设，建成后将实现26万吨产能，国内6月电解铜生产量环比或增加；印尼自由港旗下曼迪坎扬48万吨产能将于6月下旬恢复生产且12月达到满负荷生产，日本住友金属矿业计划10月对印尼冶炼厂进行为期6周检验，国内6月电解铜进口量环比或减少；进口窗口关闭限制国内电解铜进口量，中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜社会库存量较上周减少；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；国际部分贸易商仍在向美国港口运输约60万吨铜，使COMEX铜库存量较上周增加 [4] Downstream - 中国精铜杆（再生铜杆）产能开工率较上周升高，精铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加，再生铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加；中国铜电线电缆产能开工率较上周下降，企业原料（成品）库存量较上周减少（增加）；中国铜漆包线单量（产能开工率）较上周减少（下降）；中国黄铜棒产能开工率较上周下降；中美互征关税缓和和传统消费淡季来临交织，国内6月钢材企业产能开工率（生产量、进口量、出口量）环比或下降（增加、增加、减少），具体而言，电解铜制厂、再生铜制厂、电生铜板、固废铜流通有限和成品库存等方面复产受限，反向影响到部分企业，如铜板带厂、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜板市、铜箔、钢管、黄铜棒等产能开工率或环比下降 [4] Market Data - **沪铜期货活跃合约**：2025年5月30日收盘价77600元，较昨日变动 - 530元；成交量87403手，较昨日增加7250手；持仓量172994手，较昨日减少1763手；库存34128吨，较昨日增加1963吨；SMM 1电解铜平均价78235元，较昨日变动 - 250元 [2] - **沪铜基差或现货升贴水**：沪铜基差635元，较昨日变动280元；广州电解铜现货升贴水15元，较昨日变动 - 50元；华北电解铜现货升贴水 - 130元，较昨日变动0元；华东电解铜现货升贴水50元，较昨日变动5元 [2] - **价差（近月与远月）**：沪铜近月 - 沪铜连一为330元，较昨日变动60元；沪铜连一 - 沪铜连二为180元，较昨日变动 - 40元；沪铜连二 - 沪铜连一为200元，较昨日变动 - 10元 [2] - **伦敦铜**：LME3个月铜期货收盘价（电子盘）2025年6月2日为9615美元，较昨日变动118美元；LME铜期货0 - 3个月合约价差为51.49美元，较昨日变动1.41美元；LME铜期货3 - 15个月合约价差为105.01美元，较昨日变动10.76美元；沪伦铜价比值为8.0707，较昨日变动 - 0.10 [2] - **COMEX铜**：铜期货活跃合约收盘价2025年6月2日为4.858美元，较昨日变动0.19美元；总库存量182626吨，较昨日增加2125吨 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 55 yuan/ton. Both coking coal and coke are under pressure from weak fundamentals and are relatively weaker than other black - series products. [7] - As the impact of summer high temperatures and heavy rainfall increases, steel consumption seasonally weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Steel mills' molten iron production continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level. [7] - Coke supply tends to be loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal supply is generally sufficient, and its spot market is weak, with the futures market also expected to fluctuate weakly. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 closed at 1260.1, down 18 from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1365.0, down 25; J2509 closed at 1308.0, down 24.0. [2] - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 closed at 747.5, down 30.5; JM2605 closed at 778.5, down 16.5; JM2509 (8052WIC) closed at 726.0, down 33.0. [2] - **Spot Prices**: Coke spot prices such as Xingtai's factory - gate price remained unchanged; coking coal spot prices like Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coal also remained stable. [2] - **Coking Profit**: The 01 - contract coking profit was 273.8, up 212 (the data might have some errors in the table); the 05 - contract coking profit was 259.6, up 18.5; the 09 - contract coking profit was 274.9, up 19.3. [2][3] Fundamentals - **Coke Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' daily molten iron production decreased by 1.69 to 243.6, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%; daily coke production of 247 steel enterprises increased slightly by 0.05 to 47.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. [2] - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: 110 coal - washing plants' daily refined coal production decreased by 1.0 to 51.8, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%; 523 mines' daily refined coal production decreased by 2.3 to 76.3, a month - on - month decrease of 2.94%. [2] Important News - Mysteel's chief analyst predicted that the steel market in June would likely see weak supply and demand, and steel prices would hit new lows without production - control policies. [4] - Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. [5] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the expected cross - regional personnel flow was 6.57 billion person - times, with a daily average of 2.19 billion person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. [5] - The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [5] - During the holiday, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2870 yuan/ton. [6] - The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal fell below 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since 2017 with a further decline expected in the next month. [6] Trading Strategies - The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Due to weak fundamentals, both coking coal and coke are under pressure. [7] - Steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and steel mills are reducing inventory by controlling and reducing purchases, with a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. [7] - Coke supply is loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal supply is sufficient, and its market is also expected to be weak. [7]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250603：或有反弹 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 指标 单位 今值 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,400.00 | | | | -1.06% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,620.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | -0.78% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -220.00 | | | | -45.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -20.00 | | | | - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -22.17 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.20 | | | | 2.09 -3.80 | | | | 价差 | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -85.00 10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 | | | | -50.00 - | | | | 铅 沪铅连二 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [1]. - For industrial silicon, the overall production has declined with a north - south difference in production trends, and demand from downstream industries is weak. For polysilicon, the supply side maintains a production cut state, and the demand side is also soft [1]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: On June 3, 2025, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 1.20%; the futures main contract closing price was 7,160 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions all showed a downward trend, with the largest decline of 1.82% for non - oxygenated 553 (Tianjin Port) [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: In May 2025, industrial silicon production was 307,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. As of May 29, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals and Demand**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, the willingness to resume production was insufficient. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the short - term trend will remain weak, and it is recommended to take short positions on rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On June 3, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price was 35,600 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacities might be put into operation, with the expected output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous price declines of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Considering the strong uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not have an upward trend in the short term. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer, Cell, and Component Prices**: The prices of various types of silicon wafers, cells, and components remained unchanged on June 3, 2025 [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: On June 3, 2025, the price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; the price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1].

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 62.52 | 61.84 | 1.10% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 64.63 | 64.90 | -0.42% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 0.00 | 569.50 | -100.00% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/30 | | 美元/吨 | 708.50 | 716.50 | -1.12% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 841.33 | 852.17 | -1.27% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/30 | 元/吨 | 4700.00 | 48 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a state of narrow - range adjustment. High inventory in the upstream polyester industry and slow - rising production reduction scale in the short - term keep the supply of ethylene glycol sufficient. The polyester production and sales of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and chips have different levels of fluctuations. The market is expected to continue to destock in the future, and the price of ethylene glycol will continue to operate in the short - term, with relatively small changes in the short - term due to the lack of driving forces from both supply and demand sides [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - The new prices, previous values, and price change percentages of various products such as ethylene glycol, coal, and PTA are presented. For example, the new price of ethylene glycol in the spot market is 4416.00 yuan/ton, with a previous value of 4430.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.32%. And the price of PTA主力合约 settlement price is 4340.00 yuan/ton, with a previous value of 4336.00 yuan/ton, a change of 0.09% [1] 3.2 Industry Load Rate - The load rates of the PTA industry and the textile industry in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are provided. The PTA factory load rate is 89.94%, and the load rate of the textile industry in Zhejiang and Jiangsu is 69.80% [1] 3.3 Market Transaction Information - In the ethylene glycol market, the spot price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the trading volume is average. Ship - cargo trading is mainly concentrated around a certain premium or discount. For example, short - term ship - cargo trading is concentrated around a premium of about 9 - 10 US dollars/ton, and long - term ship - cargo trading has different discount ranges in different months [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - High inventory in the upstream polyester industry and slow - rising production reduction scale keep the supply of ethylene glycol sufficient. The polyester production and sales of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and chips are in a state of shock adjustment. Although the overall inventory is high, there is a certain degree of inventory reduction expectation. The market will continue to destock, and the price of ethylene glycol will continue to operate in the short - term, with relatively small changes in the short - term due to the lack of driving forces from both supply and demand sides [2]

6 月仍有下行压力 风险提示：关税政策调整，美国对外制裁加剧，中东局势变动，OPEC+政 策调整。 分析师：詹建平 从业资格证号：F0259856 投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所 能化研究室 Tel：010-82292099 Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《宏源原油周报 20250124：特朗普叠加 美联储议息，春节期间油价波动或加剧》 《宏源原油周报 20250207：特朗普重申 降低油价承诺》 《原油周报 20250214：地缘风险重估， 油价承压》 《原油周报 20250221：关注地缘问题及 OPEC+增产节奏》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《原油周报 20250307：关注晚间美国非 农数据》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油周报 20250403：原油下行压力加 大》 《原油周报 20250410：关税重压下的油 价》 《原油 5 月展望：转机与阴霾同 ...

深求端，中国不同生产工艺的磷酸铁月度平均生产成本为1.1.1.9.万元吨，中国磷酸铁6月生产(库存)量或环比增加(减少)；中国不同生产工艺的磷酸铁锂月度平均生产成本为2.4.1.万元吨。中国 磷酸铁铆 库存量较上周藏少，白银的代瑞鑫磷酸盐器種项目一般万吨产部分于月试土产、云南喷展，阿磷酸铁塑厂能符于月建成进产，天秤里电缆酸铁塑项目工期为「中带机划2月 开工并12月底建成投产，中国磷酸铁塑(磷酸碱酸铝制)，中国MEBER 高水镜 黄色 橡豆产硫酸铜目房完全生产成本为125200 1210012430012100124300124000元 保吨昆生产利润为正 0海南矿业公告称，公司投资建设的2万吨电池级氢氧化锂项目实现全流程贯通，首批氧氧化锂产品通过内部突破室取样检查，确认产品参数达到设计标准。液项目全流程贯通为后铁鞋维量产蔓 定了基础，标志着公司户业转型升级战略取得阶段性成果。但建资源价格波动可能影响灰目经济性，目项目持续稳定生产及这产、产品获得客户认证通过的时间存在不确定性。公司将及时履行 信息披露义务。 0才拓与智利国家和业公司5月9日宣布签署有约束力协议。将组建合资企业开发和运营管利马里昆加盐湖里项目。波 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about inflation risks, Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, and there may be a liquidity shock when US Treasuries mature in June - July. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries and persistent geopolitical risks may cause precious metal prices to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 772.28 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan from the previous day and 15.78 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 210,848, a decrease of 79,564 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 195,076, a decrease of 25,436 from the previous day. The inventory was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 762.49 yuan/gram, down 13.23 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 45,904, a decrease of 2,192 from the previous day. The position was 216,784, an increase of 1,732 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 0.18, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 1.83 [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 8,224 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan from the previous day and 39 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 659,531, an increase of 23,931 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 345,595, a decrease of 4,681 from the previous day. The inventory was 10,359,190 grams. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 8,202 yuan/kilogram, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was - 54,128, and the position was 3,389,800, an increase of 26,074 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 14, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 22 [1]. - **International Gold**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures on May 29, 2025, was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day and 50.85 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 225,050, an increase of 3,574 from the previous day. The position was 236,717, an increase of 129,959 from the previous day. The inventory was 38,984,927 troy ounces. The price of London gold spot was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 925.61 tons, an increase of 4.59 tons from the previous day. The holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 431.81 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons from the previous day [1]. - **International Silver**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 33.44 US dollars/ounce, up 0.34 US dollars from the previous day and 0.18 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 49,553, an increase of 8,975 from the previous day. The position was 5,523, an increase of 104,823 from the previous day. The inventory was 498,127,853.72 troy ounces. The price of London silver spot was 33.37 US dollars/ounce, up 0.09 US dollars from the previous day [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US Federal Appellate Court approved the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the ruling of a lower - court that prohibited the implementation of several US government tariff executive orders. Trump met with Powell for the first time since 2019, asking for a rate cut, while Powell insisted on policy independence. The scale of US Treasuries maturing in June - July, mainly short - term, is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and re - issuance of US Treasuries may cause a liquidity shock. The US SPCI manufacturing and service industry FINI in June were all 52.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer inflation, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Germany, and France in May were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and the previous value. The annual rate of the eurozone consumer price index CPI in May was 2.2%, higher than expected but flat with the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.75 - 2.25%, so the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in June and cut rates about twice more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK SBCI manufacturing (service) industry PRIT in May was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the annual rates of the consumer price index CPI (core CPI) in April were 3.5% (3.8%), higher than expected and the previous value, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing the quarterly bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. The annual rates of the consumer price index CPI in Japan (Tokyo) in April were 3.6% (3.5%), in line with (higher than) expectations and the previous value. The largest Japanese labor union Rengo achieved an average salary increase of 6.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second - third quarter, so the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/kilogram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of pre - export rush, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at a low level. However, the traditional off - season of consumption is approaching, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,130 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,153 lots, an increase of 6,746 lots; the open interest was 174,757 lots, an increase of 5,295 lots; the inventory was 32,165 tons, a decrease of 2,696 tons [2]. - **LME Copper Futures**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,567 US dollars, up 1 US dollar from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.57, up 6.60 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 98.25, down 1.00 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.671 US dollars, down 0.07 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 180,501 tons, an increase of 1,538 tons [2]. 3.2 Macro Situation - The scale of short - term US Treasury bonds maturing in June and July is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and refinancing of US Treasury bonds may cause liquidity shocks. The US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI in June were 52.8 and 54.8 respectively, both higher than expected. Tariffs have raised concerns about a rebound in consumer - side inflation, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations to September/December [3][4]. 3.3 Supply - Side Situation - Multiple copper mines and smelters have production changes. For example, the Kamoto - Kakoala copper mine of Jinsha Mining suspended underground mining due to multiple mine tremors on June 28; the Freeport McMoRan in Indonesia was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate in 6 months but will be subject to higher export tariffs; several copper mine expansion projects are planned to be put into production in the future, which may increase or decrease the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in June [4]. - The import volume index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and decreased compared with last week. The out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports decreased (increased, decreased) compared with last week. The domestic scrap copper import window is open, but European high - quality scrap copper plates restrict exports, and Chinese importers can only purchase copper chips or brass [4]. - Some copper smelters have production adjustments. For example, Glencore's PASAK copper smelter in the Philippines with a 200,000 - ton smelting capacity has shut down, and its Alto Norte smelter in Chile with a 350,000 - ton copper capacity suspended production until May due to problems with the smelting furnace. The 500,000 - ton cathode copper plant in Congo may be completed and put into production in June 2025 [4]. 3.4 Demand - Side Situation - The capacity utilization rates of various copper - related downstream industries in China may decline in June. For example, the capacity utilization rates of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper electric cables, copper foil packaging, steel strips, copper foil, steel pipes, and brass rods may decline due to factors such as the easing of tariffs, the arrival of the traditional off - season, and the impact of US tariff policies [4].