Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On May 7th, the price of ethylene glycol rose slightly after reaching a high point. Stimulated by the macro - favorable financial policy support, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted in the afternoon and the market maintained a narrow - range fluctuation. The basis was firm, and the price was around $498 per ton. Recently, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated greatly. The polyester chips' production and sales were 60.91% and 125.14% respectively. Although the price increase boosted the atmosphere, the downstream overall inventory was relatively high. At present, the supply - demand and cost of ethylene glycol are expected to remain at a low level, and attention should be paid to the substantial follow - up of polyester downstream orders and the final situation [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on May 7, 2025, was $562 per ton, up 1.31% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on May 7, 2025, was $791 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of cycloalkane oxide in East China on May 8, 2025, was 6,500 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on May 7, 2025, was 2,402.50 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - Tax - included brown coal pit - mouth price (Q5000, Inner Mongolia) on May 7, 2025, was 300 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - DCE EG main contract closing price on May 7, 2025, was 4,199 yuan per ton, up 1.67% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,209 yuan per ton, up 1.79% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on May 7, 2025, was 4,250 yuan per ton, up 1.02% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,267 yuan per ton, up 1.67% from the previous value [1] - Market intermediate price of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on May 7, 2025, was 4,270 yuan per ton, up 2.15% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (domestic MEG) on May 7, 2025, was 4,260 yuan per ton, up 1.67% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on May 7, 2025, was 58 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on May 7, 2025, was 61 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan from the previous value [1] - Comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate on May 7, 2025, was 58.80%, with no change from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on May 7, 2025, was 63.29%, with no change from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on May 7, 2025, was 51.98%, with no change from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on May 7, 2025, was 89.96%, with no change from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on May 7, 2025, was 80.85%, with no change from the previous value [1] - External market: Naphtha - based ethylene glycol on May 6, 2025, was - $112.35 per ton, up 5.84% from the previous value [1] - External market: Ethylene - based ethylene glycol on May 6, 2025, was - $132.15 per ton, up $132.15 from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on May 7, 2025, was - 1,974.82 yuan per ton, down 88.50 yuan from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on May 7, 2025, was 517.26 yuan per ton, up 121.68 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on May 7, 2025, was 8,450 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on May 7, 2025, was 6,750 yuan per ton, up 0.37% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on May 7, 2025, was 6,380 yuan per ton, up 0.95% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on May 7, 2025, was 5,780 yuan per ton, up 1.58% from the previous value [1] Important Information - A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - made ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to operate at a load of over 50% [2] Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, EG2509 closed at 4,199 yuan per ton, up 1.55%. The policy boost at the trading end drove the market sentiment to heat up. The supply - demand and cost of ethylene glycol are expected to remain at a low level, and attention should be paid to the substantial follow - up of polyester downstream orders and the final situation [2]

| | | | 碳 锌 8 详20250507: 国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周减少 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-04-30 | 2025-04-25 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-05-06 | 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 65100.00 | 65680.00 | 68380.00 | -580.00 | 连一合约 | 65280.00 | 收盘价 | 65880.00 | 68180.00 | -600.00 | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 66400.00 | -660.00 | 67060.00 | 68180.00 | 收盘价 | 66400.00 | 69240.00 | 连三合约 | 67060.00 | -660.00 | | | -700.00 | 收盘价 | 65260.00 | 65960.00 | 68180.00 | 碳酸锂期货 | 成交量(手) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China, and the expectation of intensified domestic economic stimulus policies along with the decreasing domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the copper price is expected to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,600 yuan, up 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,514 lots, down 6,040 lots; the open interest was 172,625 lots, up 4,071 lots; the inventory was 24,922 tons, down 3,244 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,190 yuan, up 240 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 590 yuan, down 140 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 310 yuan, up 80 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 370 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 380 yuan, up 50 yuan [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on May 2 was 9,365.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants on May 2 was 195,625 tons. The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on May 6 was 4.755 dollars, up 0.06 dollars, and the total inventory was 154,632 tons, up 5,306 tons [2]. Industry News - **Upstream**: Aurubis will start an 800 - million - dollar US scrap copper smelter in 2025, aiming to process 180,000 tons of scrap copper and produce 70,000 tons of refined copper annually. Many mines and smelters have production changes, such as the复产 of Antamina copper mine in Peru, the suspension of production in some plants in Chile and Kazakhstan, and the planned production of some expansion projects [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod enterprises may increase, while that of some industries like copper foil packaging wire and brass rod may decrease [3]. Macro - economic Situation The US Congress reached a budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.3 trillion dollars and a debt ceiling increase of 5 trillion dollars in the next decade. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars in 2026. The better - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April postponed the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or October [3].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250507: 尿素偏强震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 変化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1795.00 1880.00 | 1778.00 1850.00 | 17.00 30.00 | 0.96% 1.62% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1916.00 | 1869.00 | 47.00 | 2.51% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1881.00 | 1857.00 | 24.00 | 1.29% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1770.00 | 50.00 | 2.82% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1890.00 | 1860.00 | 30.00 | 1.61% | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol market was affected by macro - expectations. The night session of commodities rose due to the expected "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" and the rebound of oil prices, giving methanol some upward momentum. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are still few bullish factors for methanol in May as Iranian imports are expected to continue to increase. The strategy recommendation is short - term observation (View Score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2316.00 yuan/ton on April 30, 2025, to 2288.00 yuan/ton on May 6, 2025, a decrease of 1.21%. MA05 decreased by 0.48% and MA09 decreased by 1.42% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased, with Inner Mongolia having the largest decline of 2.09%. Prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 5.50 yuan/ton [1] b) Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased, with Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 both down 1.42 - 1.43% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] c) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 13.90%, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit increased by 47.08%, and East China MTO profit increased by 6.15% [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Profits of acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde changed. MTBE had a significant decline of 177.35%, while formaldehyde increased by 15.36% [1] d) Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: Methanol's main contract MA2509 weakened, opening at 2243 yuan/ton, closing at 2219 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 511,233 lots and open interest of 693,078, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.8 - million - ton methanol plant in the US restarted on May 1, and a 1.7 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance [1]

| 贵金属日评20250507: 各国对美国关税谈判仍存不确定性,印度导弹袭击巴基斯坦致死伤 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-06 | 2025-04-30 | 2025-04-25 | 收盘价 | 794. 80 | 780. 30 | 787. 20 | 7.60 | 14. 50 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 662672.00 | 197963.00 | 246636.00 | -48, 673. 00 | -464, 709.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 127407.00 | 127440.00 | 166311.00 | -33.00 | -38, 904. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 15648.00 | 15648.00 | 15648.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收 ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 刷日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 90955 | 1576.0 | -25,5 | JM2601 | 959.5 | 980.0 | -20,5 | 101 查会 | -61.5 | -87.0 | 25.5 | | J2505 | 1470.5 | 1601.0 | -130.5 | JM2505 | 880.0 | 888.0 | -8.0 | 105基差 | 18.5 | -112.0 | 130 5 | | 12509 | 1505.0 | 1538.0 | -36.0 | 80952WIE | 911.5 | 930.5 | -19.0 | 100 变云 | -13.0 | -49.0 | 36.0 ...

| | 工业硅 | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，后续电力成本将下 |  供给端：行业自律减产持续，多数企业均按照配额进行生 | | | 滑，北方高成本企业停产后，行业整体在产成本将下滑。成 | 产，4月月产量维持在10万吨以内。目前硅料价格重回下 | | | 本端对硅价支撑不足。 | 行之路，部分多晶硅复产计划或将重新商议，5月开工增 | |  | 供给端：新疆地区开工弱势，伊犁地区目前开炉数维持低位， | 加并存，综合影响下预计产量环比小幅下滑。 | | | 后续存在进一步停产检修的预期；云南地区目前有少数新增 |  需求端：偏弱。远期组件订单明显减少，光伏组件价格维 | | | 开炉，目前仍在商讨丰水期优惠电价，预计主流开工时间在 | 持跌势，5月交付的订单价格已明显下移，且有加速下行 | | | 6月；四川地区丰水期电价较去年或有一定下降趋势，产业 | 趋势；组件端对电池片需求减少，电池片库存抬升，价格 | | | 链配套硅炉有继续新增开炉的计划。 | 下滑，5月排产降至59GW，但单月供过于求格局不改；需 | |  | 需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market is in a state of game between tight raw materials and poor demand, and the lead price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with continuous attention to macro uncertainties [1] - The zinc market is also characterized by wide - range consolidation in the short term due to macro uncertainties. In the medium - to - long term, the TC has room to rise, and the zinc price center may shift down, with continuous attention to macro - emotional disturbances [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [1] - The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [1] - The lead basis was 40 yuan/ton, up from - 100 yuan/ton [1] Trading and Position - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 36,146 lots, up 4.97% [1] - The open interest of the lead futures active contract was 38,454 lots, up 6.50% [1] Inventory - The LME lead inventory was 261,500 tons, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 40,006 tons, up 3.44% [1] Industry Information - From April 26th to April 30th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.42%, up 1.19 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.46%, down 4.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 55.06%, down 18.5 percentage points [1] - A small secondary lead smelter in South China plans to start maintenance this weekend due to raw material shortages and losses, affecting a production of about 70 tons per day [1] Investment Strategy - The lead market is affected by tight raw materials and weak demand. The cost support and weak demand are in a game, and the lead price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,790 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [1] - The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [1] - The zinc basis was 435 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [1] Trading and Position - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 115,056 lots, down 0.27% [1] - The open interest of the zinc futures active contract was 111,715 lots, up 5.40% [1] Inventory - The LME zinc inventory was 172,925 tons, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 2,252 tons, down 4.33% [1] Industry Information - From April 26th to April 30th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 49.61%, down 12.83 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 49.01%, down 9.97 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.57%, down 1.20 percentage points [1] - As of May 6th, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared with April 28th and an increase of 7,100 tons compared with April 30th [1] Investment Strategy - In the short term, the zinc market is affected by macro uncertainties and is in wide - range consolidation. In the medium - to - long term, the TC has room to rise, and the zinc price center may shift down [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with the industrial silicon price operating in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term, and the unilateral strategy can consider shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 1.08% to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.97% to 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 2.52% to 8,325 yuan/ton. The price of N - type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 38 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract fell by 2.24% to 36,410 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - side Information - On April 30, a new 1,200 - ton/day photovoltaic glass furnace was added in Zhaotong, Yunnan, and the total domestic furnace production capacity increased to 125,650 tons/day. In April 2025, industrial silicon production was 301,000 tons, a 12% month - on - month and 16% year - on - year decrease. From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon decreased by 12.6% year - on - year. The decrease in April was mainly due to the large - scale production cut of a major factory in Xinjiang and a small amount of production cuts by silicon enterprises in Gansu and other places [1]. - In April, the domestic production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 8.04% compared with March, but the decline rate decreased. It is expected that the DMC start - up rate in May will drop to about 55% [1]. Demand - side Information - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state. Silicon alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategies - For industrial silicon, considering the supply and demand situation, it is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and continue to pay attention to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises. For polysilicon, it is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term, and continue to pay attention to the futures warehouse receipt registration situation and the actual production situation of silicon material factories. The unilateral strategy can consider shorting on rallies [1].