Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250821: Fluctuations Amplify Again, Protect Positions [2] - Report Date: August 21, 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures hit the daily limit down. The spot market had rigid - demand purchases, and the basis changed from discount to premium. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate and mica decreased. Last week, the production of carbonate lithium, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased. The profit margin expanded, production and downstream demand both rose, and social inventory decreased. Short - term supply and demand both strengthened, and the situation in the Jiangxi mining end remained active. The short - term fundamentals changed little. It is necessary to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the price of carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Prices**: On August 20, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to August 19, with a decrease of about 6,500 - 6,560 yuan/ton. The average closing price also decreased by 6,560 yuan/ton [3] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures on August 20 was 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots compared to August 19. The open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt inventory on August 20 was 24,045 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to August 19 [3] - **Spreads**: The basis changed from - 1,840 yuan/ton on August 19 to 4,720 yuan/ton on August 20, an increase of 6,560 yuan/ton. The near - month - consecutive - one spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to August 19 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) on August 20 was 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared to August 19. The average price of lithium mica decreased, and the average price of lithium phosphate aluminum stone also decreased [3] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained unchanged on August 20 compared to August 19. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide also remained unchanged [3] - **Other Product Prices**: The average prices of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide remained stable or had small changes [3] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 22.598 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [3] - Charger Metals announced the Measured Mineral Resources Estimate (MRE) of the Medcalf deposit in its Lake Johnston project in South Australia. The inferred mineral resources of the Medcalf deposit are 8.2 million tons, with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade of 1.0% and a cut - off grade of 0.5%. The Medcalf West exploration area is expected to have resources between 3 - 5 million tons, with a lithium oxide grade of 1.0% - 1.1%. The mineralization of both areas is not closed at depth [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased [3] - **Demand**: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons. The social inventory situation was that smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors increased inventory [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Supported by tight raw materials and peak - season expectations, lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has increasing supplies of both zinc ore and zinc ingots, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation in China. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory overseas provides some support, and zinc prices are also expected to move within a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead Market - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures dropped by 0.59% [1]. - **Market Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected smelter operations. Some previously - shut - down smelters are resuming production, leading to a steady increase in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high prices and limited supplies of waste lead - acid batteries, some smelters have reduced or halted production, resulting in relatively low overall production. On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, and dealers are mainly focused on inventory digestion [1]. - **Trade Data**: In July 2025, China's exports of lead - acid batteries were 21.2866 million units, a 13.56% increase from the previous month but a 3.79% decrease year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative exports were 134 million units, a 6.17% year - on - year decline. In July 2025, imports were 394,100 units, a 18.92% decrease from the previous month and an 18.03% decrease year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.1775 million units, a 0.87% year - on - year decline [1]. Zinc Market - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, while the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose by 0.27%. The zinc ingot premiums in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong showed different changes [1]. - **Market Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. With abundant raw materials, zinc production is expected to increase. On the demand side, although it is the off - season, due to concerns about future production cuts, some end - users have stocked up, leading to a slight increase in galvanizing operations [1]. - **Trade Data**: In July 2025, China imported 501,400 tons of zinc concentrate (physical tons), a 51.97% increase from June and a 33.58% increase year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.0354 million tons (physical tons), a 45.2% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 136,100 metric tons, a 27.6% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the total production was 715,200 metric tons, a 13.6% year - on - year increase [1]. Other Information - As the SCO Summit and National Day activities approach, safety inspections in lead - zinc mines in northern China have increased, but there is no direct impact on zinc concentrate production [1]. - On August 18, the London Metal Exchange (LME) received an application for the registration of the "JPL 99.97" lead brand, which is produced by India's Jammu Pigments Limited with an annual capacity of 21,600 tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the disk, but the bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and it is expected that the price will remain in a high - level consolidation. For polysilicon, the price has continued to rise since the end of June due to supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases. Although the sentiment has faded recently, it still fluctuates, and the price is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation with large disk fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 1.63% to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 1.54% to 9,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 2.72% to 8,390 yuan/ton [1]. Export and Import - In July 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 37%, reaching a single - month high since 2022. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In July 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was very small. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise starts. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, bringing some demand increments; an organic silicon manufacturer has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply, but the supply pressure in the market has rebounded recently, and the price may be under pressure again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price Changes - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 0.74% to 51,875 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons and increase to about 130,000 tons in August. On the demand side, according to the current polysilicon price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the stable price of upstream raw materials, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum; some battery cell enterprises have price loosening due to reduced orders and accumulated inventory; the terminal's acceptance of high prices is low, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, and the component price continues to weaken [1]. Other Related Products Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged on the day [1]. Organic Silicon Prices - The price of DMC is 11,000 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue dropped by 4.08% to 11,750 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil dropped by 3.64% to 13,250 yuan/ton [1]. Photovoltaic Glass Export - In July 2025, the export volume of photovoltaic glass was 416,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.11% compared with June and a year - on - year increase of 39.60%. From January to July 2025, the total export volume of photovoltaic glass was 2,514,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.77%. Due to the upcoming cancellation of the glass export tax refund, overseas demand has increased recently, but the stockpiling volume has begun to decrease gradually, and it is expected that the export volume in August will decrease significantly [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates a general cooling of the geopolitical situation, with the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine progressing gradually, causing oil prices to give back gains and continue weak operation. PX supply is recovering, and it is at an advantageous position in the industrial chain with stable bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; Brent crude oil was $66.84 per barrel, up 1.60%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $575.50 per ton, up 0.17%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $679.00 per ton, up 0.37%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $837.00 per ton, up 0.22% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, up 0.93%, and the settlement price was 4,742 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,689 yuan per ton, up 0.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,686 yuan per ton, down 0.09%, and the foreign price index was $624.00 per ton, up 0.16% [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,844 yuan per ton, up 1.03%, and the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.15%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,654 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $261.50 per ton, up 0.32%, and the PX - MX spread was $158.00 per ton, down 0.42% [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,964 yuan per ton, up 0.98%, and the settlement price was 5,914 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 0.34%, and in the South China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8,650 yuan per ton, the price index of polyester POY was 7,100 yuan per ton, down 0.35%, and the price index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D remained unchanged at 7,150 yuan per ton [2] Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months [2] Production and Sales Situation - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms all remained unchanged on August 20, 2025. The sales rate of polyester filament was 74.19%, up 23.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.70%, down 4.34 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 103.06%, up 17.01 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4,778 yuan per ton (up 0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 790,700 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6,844 yuan per ton (up 0.77%) with a daily trading volume of 308,800 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,964 yuan per ton (up 0.81%) with a daily trading volume of 73,600 lots. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. It mainly shows various commodity prices, price changes, and industrial load rates. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Prices and Changes - The current price of crude oil is $575.50 per ton on August 21, 2025, with a previous value of $574.50, a change of 0.1% [1]. - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene price index is $831.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, with a previous value of $826.00, a change of 0.61% [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $6300.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is $2275.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity is $4452.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $4363.00, a change of 2.04% [1]. - The settlement price of the nearby contract of a certain commodity is $4400.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene glycol in the East China market is $4460.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts is $45.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $44.00, a difference of -$89.00 [1]. - The price difference of another commodity is $38.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $91.00, a difference of -$3.00 [1]. Industrial Load Rates - The plant load rate of the PTA industry is 83.0% on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The load rate of textile machines in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industry is 57.80% on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Other Information - The external price of ethylene glycol made from naphtha is $903.8 per ton on August 19, 2025, with a previous value of $903.5, a difference of -$0.62 [1]. - The cash - flow situation shows a value of $111.9 on August 19, 2025, with a previous value of $114.9, a difference of -$3.00 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based synthesis gas method is $1425.38 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $1422.83, a difference of -$2.55 [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is $8650.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester is $7100.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $7125.00, a change of 0.3% [1]. - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6490.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price index of bottle - grade chips is $5900.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $5920.00, a change of 0.34% [1].

Report Summary - **Title of the Report**: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250820: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Are Highly Volatile [1] - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core Viewpoints** - Nickel: On August 19, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel market's fundamentals are loose, and with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Stainless Steel: On August 19, the main stainless - steel contract declined on high trading volume. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for prices to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. Prices are expected to fluctuate following the macro - situation. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: Most of the Shanghai nickel futures contracts' closing prices decreased on August 19 compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel's closing price (electronic and场内盘) also decreased, with a decline of 145 dollars [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 63,677 hands, a decrease of 14,462 hands, and the open interest was 62,507 hands, a decrease of 6,540 hands. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 6,229 hands, an increase of 1,355 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different - month nickel futures contracts changed. The basis between the SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active nickel futures contract increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures decreased, the LME nickel inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: The main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on high trading volume. The trading volume was 134,082 hands, an increase of 12,317 hands, and the open interest was 133,538 hands, a decrease of 862 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The basis between the 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price and the active stainless - steel futures contract increased by 600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased by 11,600 tons last week [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, domestic production in August decreased, and Indonesian production increased, leading to an accumulation of nickel - iron. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [2]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250820: 'Anti-Involution' Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Widely" [1] Group 2: Nickel Futures Market Price and Volume - On August 19, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts showed various changes compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 120,330 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), and the trading volume of the active contract was 63,677 hands (-14,462 hands), with an open interest of 55,967 hands (-6,540 hands) [2] Spreads and Basis - The spreads between different - month nickel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. For instance, the spread between Shanghai nickel near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton, and the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active contract was 1,320 yuan/ton (+10 yuan) [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory decreased, while the LME nickel inventory also decreased, but the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Group 3: Nickel Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Nickel ore prices remained flat, with a decrease in the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports last week and an increase in port inventory. Nickel - iron plants' loss margin narrowed, with a decrease in domestic production in August and an increase in Indonesian production, leading to an accumulation of nickel - iron inventory. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profitability expanded [2] Group 4: Nickel Demand - On the demand side, the production of ternary materials increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [2] Group 5: Stainless Steel Futures Market Price and Volume - On August 19, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract decreased in price with an increase in trading volume. The trading volume was 134,082 hands (+12,317 hands), and the open interest was 133,538 hands (-862 hands) [2] Spreads and Basis - The spreads between different - month stainless - steel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. The basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 125 yuan (+600 yuan) [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 61,750 tons (-11,600 tons) [2] Group 6: Stainless Steel Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. In terms of supply, stainless - steel production increased in August. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. In terms of cost, the price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2] Group 7: Industry News - The second - phase benchmark nickel price (IEMA) in August 2025 determined by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) decreased slightly to $15,012.67 per thousand metric tons, slightly lower than the first - phase price of $15,028.33 per thousand metric tons [2] Group 8: Investment Strategy Nickel - Given that the nickel fundamentals are loose and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Stainless Steel - Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment is relatively large. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate with the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows no significant contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Supported by tight raw materials and peak - season expectations, the short - term lead price is expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, considering the macro situation and the increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply during the off - season of demand, with continued inventory accumulation in the domestic market and a continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory providing some support, the short - term zinc price is also expected to move in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, while the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose 0.30% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,973.50 per ton, up 0.13%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.92%, and the open interest decreased by 2.80%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.40%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.17% [1]. - **Industry News**: Some small - scale secondary lead smelters in South China stopped production due to losses and stopped purchasing waste lead - acid batteries. They plan to resume production when the raw material inventory reaches around 5,000 tons. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 522 to 159,114 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead smelters that had maintenance are gradually resuming production, with stable - to - increasing production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste battery prices, limited supply, and strong hoarding sentiment among recyclers, some smelters have reduced or stopped production, resulting in relatively low overall production. The demand side shows no significant improvement, with dealers mainly consuming inventory and producers producing based on sales [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% from the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 37.72%, and the open interest increased by 51.62%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory also remained unchanged. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,770 per ton, down 0.25%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.35% [1]. - **Industry News**: Peru's Romina zinc project has reached 50% completion and is expected to be officially put into production in Q2 2026. A zinc smelter in the northwest plans to continue its maintenance from September to October, with the expected impact to be made up in November - December. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $8.65 per ton, and the open interest increased by 3,010 to 193,998 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production of zinc is showing an upward trend. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory, but due to concerns about future production cuts, some terminals have stockpiled goods, leading to a rebound in galvanizing production [1].

| | | 甲醇日评20250820: 偏弱震荡为主 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 2025/8/19 | | | 2025/8/18 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2391.00 | 2396.00 | -5.00 | -0.21% | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2376.00 | 2378.00 | -2.00 | -0.08% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2293.00 | -8.00 | -0.35% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2280.00 | 2300.00 | -20.00 | -0.87% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2315.00 | 2315.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2302.50 | -27.50 | -1.19% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term urea price will fluctuate on the strong side due to the market rumor of China exporting urea to India, which helps relieve the pressure of high domestic supply in the off - season of agricultural demand [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, UR01 closed at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton or 3.59% from August 18), UR05 at 1,839 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan/ton or 2.74%), UR09 at 1,783 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton or 3.00%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Spot prices in multiple regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 changed from - 60 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a change of - 49 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread changed from - 36 yuan/ton to - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 31 yuan/ton (0.60%) to 5,225 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5,100 yuan/ton [1] 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,756 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,826 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,744 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,789 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 213,033 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR increased in position and price, closing at 1,817. The rumor of China exporting urea to India led to an increase in position and price of urea futures, with a gain of over 3%. Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market, the key variable is exports, and opening up exports in the off - season of agricultural demand helps relieve the pressure of high supply [1]