Group 1: Price Information - The current price of crude oil is $84.63 per ton, with a previous price of $83.88 and a change of 1.9% [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $821 per ton, with no change [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China is $6300 per ton, with no change [1] - The price of methanol is $2377.5 per ton, with no change [1] - The price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia is $290 per ton, with no change [1] - The closing price of the main contract of a certain product is $4389 per ton, with a previous price of $4400 and a change of - 0.36% [1] - The settlement price of the main contract is $4375 per ton, with a previous price of $4406 and a change of 0% [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract is $4400 per ton, with no change [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract is $4400 per ton, with no change [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in the domestic market is $4480 per ton, with no change [1] - The price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market is $4460 per ton, with a previous price of $4480 and a change of - 0.33% [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts is $32 per ton, with a previous difference of $31 and a change of $1 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is $76 per ton, with a previous price of $75 and a change of $1 [1] - The price index of polyester is $8625 per ton, with no change [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6100 per ton, with a previous price of $6600 and a change of - 7.6% [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips is $5900 per ton, with a previous price of $5950 and a change of - 0.84% [1] Group 2: Production and Operation Information - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol is 59.42%, with no change [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 93%, with no change [1] - The production chain load rate of PTA factories is 86.1%, with no change [1] - The production chain load rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry is 57.83%, with no change [1] Group 3: External Market Information - The price of oil - based ethylene glycol in the external market is $1114.1 per ton, with a previous price of $1106.85 and a certain situation [1] - The price of ethylene in the external market is $111.6 per ton, with a previous price of $108.65 and a certain situation [1] Group 4: Profit Information - The post - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based synthetic gas method device is $1533.05 per ton, with a previous profit of $1545.27 and a change of - $12.22 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The international crude oil price dropped due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payroll data and OPEC+ agreeing to increase production in September. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. PX is currently in an advantageous position in the industrial chain with low inventory, but its future performance depends on additional unexpected factors. The PTA market is weak with new device commissioning expectations and weak demand during the off - season. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market transaction is okay. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 4, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all decreased compared to the previous values, with decline rates ranging from - 0.91% to - 3.19%. The PXN spread increased by 4.79% to 253.38 dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread increased by 3.97% to 139.50 dollars/ton [1] - **PTA**: The prices of CZCE TA contracts and PTA spot prices all decreased on August 4, 2025, with decline rates ranging from - 0.84% to - 1.76%. The near - far month spread changed from 10 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, and the basis increased from - 4 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton [1] - **PX**: The prices of CZCE PX contracts mostly decreased on August 4, 2025, with decline rates around - 0.85% to - 0.96%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the basis increased from 69 yuan/ton to 127 yuan/ton [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR 2509 contract closed at 5924 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase. The prices of polyester bottle - chip in the East and South China markets decreased by - 0.83% to - 0.84%. The basis in the East and South China markets decreased by 56 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream**: On August 4, 2025, the prices of most CCFEI polyester fiber price indices remained unchanged, while the prices of polyester short - fiber, polyester chip, and bottle - grade chip decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 0.51% to - 0.84% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain increased by 0.82 percentage points to 78.11% on August 4, 2025. The PTA factory load rate increased by 2.75 percentage points to 76.81%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On August 4, 2025, the production - sales ratio of polyester filament increased by 7 percentage points to 32%, the production - sales ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 7 percentage points to 49%, and the production - sales ratio of polyester chip increased by 3 percentage points to 63% [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1, 2025, for about two weeks [2] Important News - The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly poor, and OPEC+ agreed to increase production in September, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PTA will commission new devices in the third quarter, misaligned with PX. PX inventory is at a historical low, and its future performance depends on additional factors. The PTA market is weak due to new device commissioning expectations and weak demand during the off - season [2] Transaction Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,698 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% decline, and the trading volume was 505,900 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,754 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% decline, and the trading volume was 98,700 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 5,924 yuan/ton with a - 0.84% decline, and the trading volume was 29,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, with no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise but have not substantially affected refinery operations. Primary lead production remains stable, while secondary lead production is relatively low due to high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited supplies. With falling electrolytic lead factory inventories, the market's acceptance of high - priced secondary lead has improved, and secondary lead production is gradually recovering. Overall, supply and demand are both increasing, and lead prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [1] - For zinc, refinery raw material stocks are sufficient, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In the short term, the zinc market shows an increase in both ore and ingot supplies, while demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. Therefore, zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] Summary by Relevant Information Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,700 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day; the futures main contract closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closed at 1,963.50 dollars/ton, down 0.53%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.53, up 0.62% [1] - Futures active contract trading volume was 46,198 lots, down 3.01%; open interest was 71,330 lots, down 6.56% [1] - LME lead inventory was 274,225 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipts inventory was 59,007 tons, down 1.57% [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,100 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures main contract closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,754 dollars/ton, up 0.90%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.08, down 1.18% [1] - Futures active contract trading volume was 115,733 lots, up 10.10%; open interest was 102,725 lots, down 4.96% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 97,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 14,907 tons, down 0.50% [1] Industry News - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Natural Resources Department issued an announcement on the review of mineral resource exploration and mining plans to implement the new Mineral Resources Law and ensure the effective connection between old and new systems [1] - As of August 4, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 10.73 tons, an increase of 0.41 tons from July 31 and 0.36 tons from July 28 [1] - Buenaventura's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 0.78 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% due to the mining plans of Uchucchacua and Yumpag [1]

数据来源:SMM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,投资需谨慎! 天然与合成橡胶日评20250802: 天然橡胶震荡偏弱 合成橡胶震荡偏弱 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-07-24 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | | 收盘价 | 14310 | 14560 | 15245 | -250.00 | | | 天然橡胶 | 成交量(手) | 329655 | 335934 | 522391 | -6,279.00 ---- | | | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 190262 | 186596 | 210844 | 3,666.00 ---- | | | | 注册仓单量 | 177630 | 179600 | 186680 | -1, 970.00 | | | | 天然橡胶基差 | 65 | 140 | -270 | -75.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 | 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250805：或有回调 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/5 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | -2.62% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,360.00 | -1.65% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 940.00 46.00 | -110.00 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | N型多晶硅料 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/千克 元/吨 | 48,720.00 | -0.98% | | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | -2,720.00 | 480.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | -2.62% | | | 9,400.00 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | | -2.08% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate has not improved substantially. After the price decline, there is a certain purchasing demand from downstream. Considering the uncertainty of supply - side disturbances, it is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended investment strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [3][84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 13.26%. The trading volume reached 3.4 million lots (- 2.87 million), and the open interest reached 216,100 lots (- 275,000). The basis was at a premium of 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [9]. - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [13]. - In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [18]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [23]. 3.2.3 Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 17,268 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [29]. - In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,587 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [42]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 15,655 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In June, the import and export volume increased [47]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the export volume decreased [49]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [50]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, the production of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [57]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, the production of power batteries was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The loading volume of power batteries was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.268 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The sales volume was 1.329 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, the production of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [67]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 10.827 million, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 3.159 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [70]. 3.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 55 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 80 yuan/ton [73]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,444 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,427 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,073 tons, and the other's inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,206 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 53 tons [80][81].

黑色金属周报-钢材 价格调整 基差走强 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 2025.08.04 目录 第一部分 结论及平衡表 截至7月31日，五大品种钢材整体产量增0.45万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比增0.1吨，社库增 15.29吨。表观需852.03万吨，环比降16.1万吨。截至8月1日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现 金含税成本3077元，点对点利润253元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润233元左右。电炉端，华东 （富宝口径）平电电炉成本在3360元左右，谷电成本在3232左右，华东螺纹平电利润-110元左右， 谷电利润18元。 废钢端，截止7月31日，张家港废钢价格2150元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨。数据显示，89家独立 电弧炉企业产能利用率30.6%，环比回升1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗54.8万吨，环比增2.98 万吨；其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗27.4万吨/天，环比回升1.08万吨；短流程日耗16.7吨，环比 增1.47万吨。供应方面，255家样本钢厂日均到货54.1万吨，环比增7.56万吨，增幅16.3%。库存 方面，255家钢企废钢库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the zinc market show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, providing limited support for zinc prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, weakening the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals. Considering the possible recurrence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the downward space for zinc prices is also limited. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate within the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to macroeconomic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 2.07% to 22,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract dropped by 2.47% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 3.52% to 2,729.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open interest ratio, and SHFE - LME ratio (excluding exchange rate impact) [15]. It also shows data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contract months [17]. 3.2 Raw Material and Production 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of August 1, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang Port was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,000 tons [24]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,984 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [31]. - **TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 78.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 1, the production profit was - 254 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will increase to about 600,000 tons [43]. - **Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of August 1, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,577.43 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [47][48]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Galvanizing - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%. Black metal prices first rose and then fell, leading to poor sales of galvanized products, weakened orders, and some enterprises reduced their operating rates to consume existing inventories [54]. - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. Despite the continuous decline in zinc ingot prices during the week, downstream buyers mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, with more orders placed but less actual transactions. Weak orders led to the accumulation of finished product inventory [57]. 3.3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 2.01% and 1.96% respectively, to 22,925 yuan/ton and 23,475 yuan/ton [64]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%. It is the consumption off - season, and although some enterprises resumed production, the overall operating rate still declined. In terms of terminal demand, orders for real - estate hardware, luggage zippers, etc. were average, and orders for electronic products were good but accounted for a relatively low proportion, providing limited support for enterprise production [67]. - **Inventory**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory increased slightly as alloy factories' purchasing enthusiasm slightly recovered during the week of zinc price decline, but still mainly for rigid demand. Finished product inventory decreased [70]. 3.3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 1.84% to 21,300 yuan/ton [78]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13%. In the terminal market, it is the off - season for domestic automobile production and sales, the rubber - grade market is average, and the feed - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide markets are weak due to the off - season. Electronic - grade orders are relatively strong supported by power grid demand [81]. - **Inventory**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly as enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases during the week of zinc price decline. Finished product inventory increased [84]. 3.4 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the SMM three - location zinc ingot inventory was 103,200 tons, showing an increase. At the beginning of the week, although zinc prices declined, downstream purchases were limited during the off - season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [92]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of August 1, the SHFE inventory was 61,700 tons, showing an increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 100,800 tons, showing a decrease [95]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was a surplus of 24,000 tons [101].

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys) - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The US tariff hikes increase global economic uncertainty, and the traditional consumption off - season leads to inventory accumulation expectations, putting pressure on aluminum prices [1] - For alumina, although the cost is pushed up by the rising price of imported bauxite from Guinea, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price may be cautiously weak - For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, the weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and prices may still have room to fall 3. Summary by Category Alumina - **Supply - demand situation**: Domestic bauxite supply is expected to be loose in August, with production and imports likely to increase. China's alumina production in August may increase month - on - month, and the surplus of alumina compared to electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. Imports may decrease and exports may increase in August, and port inventories have decreased [3][18][27] - **Price and cost**: The price of imported bauxite from Guinea has risen, pushing up production costs. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. The price of alumina may be cautiously weak. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,100 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3][24] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - demand situation**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase month - on - month due to the resumption and new production of some projects. Imports in August may also increase. The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has declined, and the demand is weak [4][60] - **Price and cost**: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of Shanghai aluminum may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the resistance level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [4] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - demand situation**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished product inventory may decrease. The import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloys in August may decrease [6][71][84] - **Price and cost**: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is still in the red, and the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of aluminum alloys may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 20,000 - 20,300 [6] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] Basis and Spread - **Alumina**: The basis and monthly spread are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors hold previous long positions on the alumina basis cautiously [11] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The basis of Shanghai aluminum is positive and basically within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum [39] - **Aluminum Alloys**: The basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US employment market weakness boosts Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper fluctuates upward, suggesting that Shanghai copper prices may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 80,943 lots, down 28,068 lots; open interest was 167,671 lots, down 8,522 lots; inventory was 20,349 tons, up 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, down 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was -70 yuan, down 595 yuan; Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was -15 yuan, up 5 yuan; North China electrolytic copper spot premium was -120 yuan, down 10 yuan; East China electrolytic copper spot premium was 35 yuan, unchanged; the spread between near - month and continuous - first Shanghai copper was -10 yuan, down 70 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 141,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -49.25 US dollars, up 1.51 US dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was -142.93 US dollars, down 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1387, up 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, down 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, up 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Due to the US government's decision on July 30, 2025, to exempt imported electrolytic copper from tariffs, the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, leading a large amount of electrolytic copper to be transferred to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Company Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand El Teniente. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion is expected to add 2 - 3 tons of copper production in 2025 and reach 15 tons after full - production, with the annual output expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, resulting in 6 deaths and halting nearby activities for investigation [2]. Investment Strategy - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in January. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and core CPI in June. Due to the possible significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls in June - July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates increased month - on - month, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative and higher than the previous week, and the port copper concentrate throughput (in - port, inventory) in the world (China) decreased (increased, decreased) compared with the previous week. The restriction on high - quality scrap steel exports in Europe and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations affected scrap copper imports, and the import window for scrap copper was closed. Some copper smelters suspended production, and domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in domestic rough copper production (import) in August [2]. - **Trading Advice**: Hold previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and COMEX copper [2]