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石油沥青日报:盘面大幅回调,现货市场趋于谨慎-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:45
石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-25 盘面大幅回调,现货市场趋于谨慎 市场分析 1、6月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3580元/吨,较昨日结算价下跌189元/吨,跌幅 5.01%;持仓269578手,环比下降41754手,成交460577手,环比上涨143526手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3980—4086元/吨;山东,3730—4030元/吨;华南,3650—3750元/吨; 华东,3700—3800元/吨。 随着伊朗和以色列双方均宣布正式停火,中东局势显著缓和,前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落,已 基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅,并带动包括沥青在内的能源板块期货整体下跌。现货方面,昨日华北、山东 以及川渝地区沥青现货价格均有所下跌,西北以及华东地区沥青现货价格小涨,其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为 主。就沥青自身基本面而言,整体供需两弱格局延续,库存维持低位。由于沥青刚性需求较为疲软,情绪仍较为 谨慎,整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:传统消费旺季临近,铅价或震荡走强-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]
美联储官员对利率路径存分歧,地缘因素仍多变
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and for silver is also cautiously bullish. The rating for arbitrage and options is to postpone [8]. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials have differences on the interest - rate path, and geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver prices are affected by Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold prices are in a volatile pattern, and silver prices have strong fluctuations. The operation suggestions for gold and silver are to be cautiously bullish, while arbitrage and options operations should be postponed [1][8]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell believes the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait to consider interest - rate adjustments. However, there are differences within the Fed. Bostic expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut later this year, while others like Hammack think there is no urgent need to cut rates. Geopolitically, Trump has complex statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and regime change in Iran, and there are disputes over the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 771.86 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. The volume was 248,445 lots, and the open interest was 147,344 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,750 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,739 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The volume was 446,808 lots, and the open interest was 341,852 lots [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.34%, down 0.01% from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.55%, up 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 173 lots, and the short positions decreased by 614 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 50.23% to 501,680 lots. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions were 120 lots, and the short positions increased by 89 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts decreased by 9.30% to 795,077 lots [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 955.68 tons, down 1.72 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,877.49 tons, down 73.50 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 649.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 88.32, down 0.86% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 92.98, down 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,470 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 304,350 kilograms, down 30.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,282 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 66,330 kilograms [7]. Strategies - For gold, it is advisable to enter the market with a light position (10% - 15% position) at the current price and add to the position to about 30% near 730 yuan/gram, with a stop - loss at 708 yuan/gram. For silver, continue to buy on dips for hedging, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging near 8,640 yuan/kilogram for the Ag2508 contract, with a stop - loss near 8,590 yuan/kilogram [8].
新能源及有色金属日报:现货升水维持高涨,沪镍窄幅震荡-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:43
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 现货升水维持高涨,沪镍窄幅震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-24日沪镍主力合约2507开于117440元/吨,收于117450元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化-0.44%,当日成交量 为96087手,持仓量为52007手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅下跌后横盘振荡,日盘开盘小幅反弹受阻后振荡下跌,午后小幅反弹,收十字线。成 交量较上个交易日小幅下降,持仓量较上个交易日小幅下降。美国总统特朗普称,以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生 效。央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》,要夯实宏观经济金融基础,支持居民就 业增收,优化保险保障,积极培育消费需求。强化结构性货币政策工具激励,加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持, 发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。菲律宾,矿山报价维持坚挺。受降雨天气影响,装船出货效率不高。现货市 场方面,金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调约400元/吨,市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调,日内镍价弱势振荡, 日内镍价偏弱运行,精炼镍贸易商上调现货升贴水,但下游接受程度有限,现货成交整体偏淡。其中金川镍升水 变化250元/吨至3000元/吨,进口镍 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:中东问题对铝价形成一定扰动-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:43
中东问题对铝价形成一定扰动 重要数据 铝现货方面:MM数据,昨日长江A00铝价录得20540元/吨,较上一交易日下跌110元/吨,长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至140元/吨;中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨,中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌10元/吨至-30元/吨;佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨,佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至35元 /吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 铝期货方面:2025-06-24日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨,收于20315元/吨,较上一交易日收盘价下跌105元/ 吨,跌幅-0.51%,最高价达20450元/吨,最低价达到20255元/吨。全天交易日成交136633手,较上一交易日减 少44423手,全天交易日持仓250085手,较上一交易日减少3512手。 库存方面,截止2025-06-23,SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-24,LME铝库存339900 吨,较前一交易日减少1075吨。 氧化铝现货价格:2025-06-24 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3120元/吨,山东价格录得 ...
华泰期货流动性日报-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:38
流动性日报 | 2025-06-25 市场流动性概况 2025-06-24,股指板块成交5446.28亿元,较上一交易日变动+21.41%;持仓金额9886.31亿元,较上一交易日变动 +4.59%;成交持仓比为55.37%。 国债板块成交2687.29亿元,较上一交易日变动+7.28%;持仓金额8883.85亿元,较上一交易日变动-0.84%;成交持 仓比为30.82%。 基本金属板块成交2341.50亿元,较上一交易日变动+10.24%;持仓金额3872.83亿元,较上一交易日变动+0.50%; 成交持仓比为89.40%。 贵金属板块成交4964.43亿元,较上一交易日变动+39.13%;持仓金额4394.91亿元,较上一交易日变动-0.78%;成 交持仓比为100.64%。 能源化工板块成交9299.76亿元,较上一交易日变动+20.67%;持仓金额4032.77亿元,较上一交易日变动-2.63%; 成交持仓比为155.41%。 农产品板块成交3211.92亿元,较上一交易日变动+5.65%;持仓金额5637.95亿元,较上一交易日变动-1.72%;成交 持仓比为49.13%。 黑色建材板块成交2185 ...
苯乙烯日报:原油带动EB成本型下挫-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:38
苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-25 原油带动EB成本型下挫 下游硬胶方面:EPS生产利润463元/吨(+297元/吨),PS生产利润-337元/吨(+147元/吨),ABS生产利润356元/吨 (+263元/吨)。EPS开工率53.63%(-1.84%),PS开工率58.70%(+0.40%),ABS开工率63.97%(-0.11%),下游开 工季节性低位。 市场分析 伊朗以色列地缘冲突放缓,原油价格快速回落,拖累纯苯苯乙烯成本型下挫。纯苯方面,国产开工率已上升至高 位,下游CPL及苯胺开工仍偏低,拖累纯苯需求,港口方面,后续韩国发往中国压力仍大,纯苯港口库存本周初再 度快速上升,压制纯苯加工费。苯乙烯方面,港口库存逐步进入回升周期,且国内苯乙烯开工率进一步上升至近3 年高位,工厂库存亦是累库周期。下游方面,PS及ABS库存压力仍存,开工表现不佳。但基差仍偏高,盘面贴水 现货较深。 策略 中性 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面:纯苯港口库存17.10万吨(+1.80万吨);纯苯CFR中国加工费149美元/吨(+2美元/吨),纯苯FOB韩国加 工费131美元/吨(+2美元/吨),纯苯美韩价差58.8美 ...
化工日报:宏观氛围影响,原料波动加大-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:38
化工日报 | 2025-06-25 宏观氛围影响,原料波动加大 市场要闻与数据 期货方面,昨日收盘RU主力合约13665元/吨,较前一日变动-285元/吨。NR主力合约11790元/吨,较前一日变动-220 元/吨。现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13650元/吨,较前一日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13600元/吨, 较前一日变动-220元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1680美元/吨,较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1620美元/吨,较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨,较前一日变动-250元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解,进入下旬,半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善,国内市场进货压力较大,出口市场尚存支撑,多企 业延续控产,缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳,听闻,个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划,短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激,短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示,2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条,同比下降1 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:受消息面影响,碳酸锂盘面反弹-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:38
策略 受消息面影响,碳酸锂盘面反弹 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 市场分析 2025年6月24日,碳酸锂主力合约2509开于58940元/吨,收于60700元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨3.06%。当 日成交量为681747手,持仓量为343564手,较前一交易日减少13390手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货升水电碳800 元/吨。所有合约总持仓631536手,较前一交易日减少25081手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加503296手,成 交量860946,整体投机度为1.36。当日碳酸锂仓单22375手,较上个交易日减少4404手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年6月24日电池级碳酸锂报价5.93-6.05万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨, 工业级碳酸锂报价5.78-5.88万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。当前碳 酸锂市场仍延续供大于求的基本格局,供需矛盾依然突出。从供应端看,市场可流通货源充足,库存压力尚未得 到有效缓解;需求侧则未有明显增量预期,下游正极材料企业维持谨慎采购策略,仅以刚需采购为主。今日市场 流传多则 ...
油料日报:供应增量而需求表现较弱,油料价格震荡运行-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:38
油料日报 | 2025-06-25 供应增量而需求表现较弱,油料价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘豆一2507合约4227.00元/吨,较前日变化-23.00元/吨,幅度-0.54%。现货方面,食用豆现货基 差A07-47,较前日变化+23,幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总:周一,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌,其中基准期约收低1.3%,主要受到美国中西 部地区天气条件持续改善的影响。截至收盘,大豆期货下跌9.25美分到14美分不等,其中7月期约下跌9.25美分, 报收1058.75美分/蒲;8月期约下跌9.50美分,报收1062美分/蒲;11月期约下跌14美分,报收1046.75美分/蒲。6月24日, 黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.12元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤,较昨 日平;黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 ...