Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The sales pressure in the soybean spot market is gradually increasing, with some traders' price - holding mentality weakening, and soybean quotes in Northeast China moderately decreasing. The market conditions in other main producing areas remain stable overall, and attention should be paid to the impact of new soybean production, quality, and terminal procurement dynamics on prices. For peanuts, the inventory in the circulation link is continuously low, some traders are replenishing at low prices, and the market is concerned about the stocking demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the new peanut listing progress [2][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.13% [1] Spot - The basis of edible soybean spot is A11 + 250, a change of - 5 from the previous day, with a change rate of 32.14%. The soybean market prices in Northeast China are stable with a slight decline, and the prices of low - protein sources are under pressure from state - reserve auctions. Some areas are expected to have new grain on the market around September 20 [1] Specific Quotes - In Heilongjiang Harbin, the loading price of standard - grade No. 1 medium - sized tower grain with 39% protein is 2.11 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Heilongjiang Shuangyashan Baoqing, it is 2.10 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; in Heilongjiang Jiamusi Fujin, it is 2.07 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; in Heilongjiang Qiqihar Nehe, the loading price of standard - grade No. 1 medium - sized tower grain with 41% protein is 2.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Heilongjiang Heihe Nenjiang, it is 2.19 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Heilongjiang Suihua Hailun, it is 2.20 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanuts 2510 contract yesterday was 7790.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.51% [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts is 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.12%. The spot basis is PK10 + 310.00, a change of +40.00 from the previous day, with a change rate of +14.81%. The average price of common peanuts in the national peanut market is 4.23 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. The prices of new - season Baisha common peanuts in Henan are around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the prices for 8 - sieve peanuts are 4.9 - 5 yuan/jin. The prices of old peanuts in the Northeast are stable with a slight decline, and the sales are slow. The delivery of peanut fruits in some producing areas is basically finished, the current operating rate of oil mills is low, and the demand for pressing is small [3] Oil Mill Quotes - A Shandong oil mill's contract price for common peanuts is 8350 yuan/ton, and the procurement contract price for oil - used peanuts is 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton. A Henan oil mill's procurement contract price for oil - used peanuts is about 7300 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the market has a weak supply - demand situation, with long - term supply pressure and low - level downstream demand. Attention should be paid to macro and cost - end impacts, and there is still room for profit compression in the chlor - alkali industry [3]. - For caustic soda, the spot price is stable with a slight increase. Although there are short - term transportation restrictions, the overall order situation in Shandong is acceptable. The cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (- 6), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (+ 6), and the South China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (+ 16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 399 yuan/ton (- 176), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 628 yuan/ton (- 36), and the PVC export profit is 18.0 dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+ 0.6), the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+ 1.4), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 75.24% (- 0.83%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 68.66% (- 3.78%), and the PVC operation rate is 73.33% (- 1.69%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (- 2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2665 yuan/ton (- 70), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 54 yuan/ton (+ 70) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 784.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 652.53 yuan/ton (+ 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (- 10.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (- 1.69), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (- 0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.58% (- 0.20%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 64.73% (+ 0.87%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 86.02% (- 0.20%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC futures price stops falling and rebounds. Attention should be paid to the impacts from the macro and cost ends. The supply side has increased maintenance, and the operation rate has decreased month - on - month. However, many maintenance enterprises will resume this week, and the output may increase slightly. In the long - term, the supply - side pressure is still large. The downstream demand remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume have decreased month - on - month. Affected by India's PVC import policy, the export is expected to be strong before September and weaken in the fourth quarter. The PVC social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The 09 contract has a large warehouse receipt pressure. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. In September 2025, the delivered price of liquid caustic soda orders of alumina enterprises in Guangxi has increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last month. The chlor - alkali enterprises have increased maintenance, and the operation rate has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. Affected by transportation restrictions during the parade, orders from other provinces in Shandong have stopped, and the in - province delivery volume may increase. The receiving price of the main downstream alumina factories in Shandong is mainly stable. Non - aluminum downstream has a fear of high - priced goods. As the peak season is approaching, the overall order backlog in Shandong is acceptable, but the external - province delivery has been suspended in the short - term due to transportation. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi. The electricity price in Shandong has increased slightly in September, the price of liquid chlorine is weak, and the cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level in the same period [4]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Pay attention to macro sentiment. With weak supply - demand, be cautious about shorting at high levels [5]. - Inter - delivery: Reverse arbitrage for V01 - 05 at high levels [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish [5]. - Inter - delivery: Positive arbitrage for SH10 - 01 at low levels [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: On hold 2) Core View of the Report - Gold prices have hit a new all-time high, with the main logic based on easing expectations and the risk premium due to threats to the Fed's independence. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be in a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 785 yuan/gram and 835 yuan/gram [8]. - In the current macro - environment, the silver price can benefit from both its financial attributes similar to gold and its industrial attributes in the interest - rate cut cycle, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. However, the silver price is also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9700 yuan/kg and 10200 yuan/kg [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Tariffs: US President Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case, claiming that the US was in an economic emergency when the tariffs were introduced [1]. - US economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and remained below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range [1]. - Eurozone inflation: The Eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI fell slightly to 2.3%. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should pause rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - Shanghai Gold: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 804.32 yuan/gram, up 0.47% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 813.00 yuan/gram, up 1.08% from the afternoon close [2]. - Shanghai Silver: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9775.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9824.00 yuan/kg, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 547,942 lots, and the open interest was 282,718 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9766 yuan/kg and closed at 9836 yuan/kg, up 0.12% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 2, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.261%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.62%, down 0.22 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - Gold: On the Au2508 contract, the number of long and short positions did not change compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 319,990 lots, down 35.47% from the previous trading day [4]. - Silver: On the Ag2508 contract, the number of long positions increased by 2, and the number of short positions decreased by 2. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 968,060 lots, down 36.18% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons compared to the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15,366.48 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - Spot - futures spread: On September 2, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 20.32 yuan/gram, and for silver was - 1028.51 yuan/kg. - Gold - silver ratio: The ratio of the prices of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.87, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, up 0.65% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,864 kg, down 19.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 444,734 kg, down 31.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,490 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-03 需求略有回暖，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 据农业农村部监测，9月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.41，比昨天上升0.21个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为118.13，比昨天上升0.25个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.80元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；牛肉65.19 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.1%；羊肉60.81元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2%；鸡蛋7.59元/公斤，比昨天下降2.1%；白条鸡17.44 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市场分析 综合来看，虽然本周生猪出栏预计会有所缩量，由于短期的供应节奏调整，可能导致现货价格和近期合约价格会 趋于坚挺。但整体供过于求格局并未改变，对26年的生猪合约影响较小，利于套期保值需求逢高参与。当前的缩 量情况环比六七月底均有所增加，未来需持续关注。 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13595元/吨，较前交易日变动-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.02元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+425，较前交易日变动-120； ...

油脂日报 | 2025-09-03 供需结构稳定，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9422.00元/吨，环比变化+38元，幅度+0.40%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8356.00 元/吨，环比变化+8.00元，幅度+0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9766.00元/吨，环比变化-35.00元，幅度-0.36%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9380.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差P01+-42.00，环比变化 +32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8480.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y01+124.00， 环比变化+2.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差OI01+134.00， 环比变化+35.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：棕榈油周度成交环比上涨，但24度及以下棕榈油消费需求有限，上周国内棕榈油库存小幅攀 升，再度回升至近期高位附近。监测数据显示，截止到2025年第35周末，国内棕榈油库存总量为55.8万吨，较上周 的52.0万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, and the deep negative basis is maintained. There is currently a pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas. The port reflow to southern Shandong has opened, and the downside space depends on the inland performance. The coal - based methanol concentrated maintenance period has passed, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. The traditional downstream has seen a decline in pending orders and a drop in the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid, while the formaldehyde operating rate remains low [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis (such as methanol at Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia Northern Line, etc. relative to the main futures contract) and inter - period spreads (such as between different methanol futures contracts like 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data are presented in figures with units of yuan/ton [6][21][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. The units are yuan/ton or US dollars/ton [25][26][29] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The report provides figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones). The units are tons and percentages respectively [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Figures display regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., with the unit of yuan/ton [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - At the beginning of the week, the inventories of pure benzene and styrene both increased. Styrene continued to face high inventory pressure, and pure benzene ended its previous small de - stocking cycle. The arrival of pure benzene at ports was concentrated, while the downstream开工率 of pure benzene decreased to varying degrees. The inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain remained high, and there was also inventory pressure in the MDI of the aniline downstream. In the phenol industry chain, both bisphenol A and PC reduced their loads. For styrene, the actual开工率 was high, and the pressure of arrivals at ports was still large. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of EB maintenance plans in early September. The port inventory was expected to peak, but if the styrene maintenance in September was implemented, it would also drag down the demand for pure benzene. Therefore, the single - sided price would still fluctuate weakly. Among the downstream of EB, the开工率 of EPS and ABS decreased again, while the开工率 of PS continued to rise. The finished product inventories of the three major hard rubbers all increased to varying degrees, and the styrene production profit weakened again [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis was - 86 yuan/ton (- 6), and the spot - M2 spread was - 40 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene's main basis was 101 yuan/ton (+ 79 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee was 137 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee was 120 dollars/ton (- 7 dollars/ton), with a US - Korea spread of 52.6 dollars/ton (+ 8.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene's non - integrated production profit was - 433 yuan/ton (- 22 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's port inventory was 14.90 million tons (+ 1.10 million tons), and its开工率 was not mentioned in the inventory and开工率 section [1] - Styrene's East China port inventory was 196,500 tons (+ 17,500 tons), East China commercial inventory was 96,500 tons (+ 12,500 tons), and its开工率 was 78.1% (- 0.5%) [1] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit was 285 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), and its开工率 was 58.35% (- 2.63%) [2] - PS production profit was - 15 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan/ton), and its开工率 was 59.90% (+ 2.40%) [2] - ABS production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton), and its开工率 was 70.80% (- 0.30%) [2] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit was - 1700 yuan/ton (- 80), and its开工率 was 89.38% (- 2.48%) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit was - 539 yuan/ton (+ 0), and its开工率 was 76.00% (- 2.00%) [1] - Aniline production profit was - 216 yuan/ton (- 12), and its开工率 was 67.55% (- 2.55%) [1] - Adipic acid production profit was - 1065 yuan/ton (+ 18), and its开工率 was 63.20% (- 2.30%) [1] Strategies - Single - sided: Cautiously short - sell and hedge pure benzene and styrene at high prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: Wait and see [4] - Cross - variety: Wait and see [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) declined. The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China showed a downward trend. According to CCF data, it was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]. - On the supply side, domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly. The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with few contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton. The domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September [2][3] III. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [3] V. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Core View of the Report - In September, there are relatively large disturbances on the supply side, such as a decrease in the circulation of scrap copper and a concentrated maintenance period for smelters. Although downstream consumption is not outstanding, grid demand provides support. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On September 2, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,640 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, a -0.15% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 79,500 yuan/ton and closed at 80,410 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was quoted at a premium of 110 - 330 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, with an average premium of 220 yuan/ton, a 15-yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 80,010 - 80,310 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers had low acceptance of high prices, and the purchasing sentiment weakened. The premium of flat copper decreased to 130 - 160 yuan/ton, while the supply of high-quality copper was tight, and the premium was firm [2]. Important Information Summaries - **Tariffs**: US President Trump said he would appeal the global tariff case ruling to the US Supreme Court and reiterated that his introduction of global tariffs was due to the US being in an "economic emergency" [3]. - **Economic Data**: The US August ISM manufacturing index slightly rose from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index rose to 51.4, expanding for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index dropped 3.6 points to 47.8, falling back into the contraction range. The Eurozone's August CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with an expected 2%. The core CPI slightly declined to 2.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The service price increase slowed to 3.1%. European Central Bank hawkish executive Schnabel said the ECB should suspend interest rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [3]. Mine End - **Production Reduction**: Capstone Copper's Mantoverde sulfide mine in Chile will temporarily reduce production due to the failure of two ball mill drive motors within a week. The company expects the repair work to take about four weeks, resulting in a copper concentrate production loss of 3,000 - 4,000 tons [4]. - **Mine Expansion**: The government of British Columbia has approved Imperial Metals' plan to deepen and expand the Springer pit of the Mount Polley copper-gold mine, which will extend the mine's service life by about 8 years. The mine produced 35.7 million pounds (about 16,200 tons) of copper and 39,108 ounces (about 1,210 tons) of gold in 2024. Exploration drilling is ongoing, and new ore sections have been discovered [4]. Smelting and Import - **Production**: From January to August 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached 893,900 tons, a 12.3% year-on-year increase. In August, the output was 117,150 tons, a 0.24% month-on-month decrease. Due to a significant decline in the supply of scrap anode plates and the upcoming concentrated maintenance period for smelters, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline significantly in September and may continue until October [5]. - **Scrap**: Affected by relevant policies and high previous smelting demand, the marketable scrap after September will significantly decrease [5]. - **Import**: The trading activity of US dollar copper in the domestic market has further increased this week. The arbitrage window formed by the price difference between BC copper and LME has been continuously open since mid-August, boosting the demand for bonded warehouse receipts. The domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decrease, and imports have not increased significantly. Sellers are reluctant to sell, and the Yangshan copper premium is expected to continue to strengthen [5]. Consumption - **Copper Rod**: Last week, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 68.12%, a 3.25-percentage-point decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 32,700 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 68,000 tons. With the alleviation of capital pressure and the arrival of some September orders next week, demand is expected to recover. The substitution effect of refined copper rods may be enhanced due to the tightening supply of scrap copper [6]. - **Wire and Cable**: At the beginning of the week, the high copper price inhibited order release. Most enterprises focused on completing existing orders, and only a few purchased in advance due to bullish expectations. The State Grid's demand provides support, while other industries are still in the off-season [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - **LME Warehouse Receipts**: Decreased by 25.00 tons to 158,775 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: Decreased by 699 tons to 19,501 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. - **Domestic Spot Inventory**: On September 2, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,100 tons, a 5,000-ton increase from the previous week [6].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-03 钢厂利润收缩，库存持续增加 钢材：钢厂利润收缩，库存持续增加 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3117元/吨。热卷主力合约收于3298元/吨。现货方面，昨日建材成交偏弱，全国成交量9.9 万吨。 供需与逻辑，目前恰逢淡旺季转换节点，叠加周三阅兵前后限产复产影响，市场多空分歧加大。钢材延续累库趋 势，钢材价格走势震荡，钢厂利润空间持续被压缩。本周唐山高炉开始限产，钢厂原料采购需求走弱，但市场普 遍预期阅兵后会复产。当前螺纹10合约仓单交割压力较大，压制整体黑色板块，关注后续旺季需求表现。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场谨慎观望，铁矿价格小幅震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走强。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于771.5元/吨，涨幅0.72%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。昨日全国 主港铁矿累计成交90.0万吨，环比下跌13.38%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交152.5万 ...