Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and the improvement of onshore assets has enhanced the popularity of the yuan. However, attention should be paid to the volatility risks caused by the Fed's statements during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [46][49]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the Chinese yuan options shows an appreciation trend of the yuan, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan options has continued to decline, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility [4]. - In July 2025, the non - bank sector's foreign - related income was 6904 billion US dollars, and external payments were 6981 billion US dollars, with the payment and receipt scale close to balance. Both payments and receipts were at a high level, indicating that cross - border trade, investment, and service activities remained strong. Seasonal factors led to slightly higher payments than income, but the overall operation was still stable [44]. 2. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there has been a fluctuation in the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [10]. 3. Macroeconomic Situation 3.1 US Economy - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of 515.4 billion on August 3rd, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 57.2 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine whether the Fed would lower the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [18]. - The ratio of hawks to doves among Fed voting members is 6:5. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating a wait - and - see approach and others supporting interest rate cuts [21]. - The US economic outlook has been revised upward. In July, the decline in fiscal spending was accompanied by a recovery in the service sector's prosperity, which drove the manufacturing industry. However, fiscal spending remained weak. The July non - farm payrolls were significantly revised downward, and the market is waiting for July CPI data [22]. - In July, the US CPI remained flat compared to the previous value, with the core CPI rebounding and the PPI rising more than expected. The rebound in the core CPI was mainly due to the rebound in core services, especially the volatile airline ticket sub - item. The PPI increase was mainly driven by the 2% month - on - month jump in trade services [23]. - US retail sales showed resilience in year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. Automobile - related, food service and catering, and non - store snacks were the main contributors, and general merchandise stores also remained resilient [26]. 3.2 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment. The fundamentals and market sentiment are increasingly divided [28][29]. - In July 2025, the banking system completed approximately 233.6 billion US dollars in foreign exchange settlement business and 210.8 billion US dollars in foreign exchange sales business, achieving a net surplus of 22.8 billion US dollars. The market showed stable yet dynamic performance, with the foreign exchange market generally in a "stable and positive" state [37]. 4. Domestic Policy - At the 9th Plenary Session of the State Council on August 18th, it was pointed out that efforts should be made to continuously stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, and promote the construction of a unified national market [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is bearish due to factors such as tax periods, fiscal supply, and limited policy easing. The long - term trend depends on the real estate market. If real estate policies are effective and housing prices stop falling, it will be bearish for long - term treasury bonds; if the real estate market remains sluggish, the bond market has medium - to - long - term allocation value [1][4][5][21][35][53] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs "The 'Inflection Point' Series Report Review" - The previous four reports in this series established a logical chain from policy anchors to the money market and then to the market curve. Report 1 focused on the contradiction between policy easing and weak economic fundamentals; Report 2 emphasized the reshaping of the interest rate regulation anchor; Report 3 analyzed the full - chain effects of "dual interest rate cuts"; Report 4 explored the evolution of the yield curve after dual interest rate cuts [13][15][16][18] "Liquidity and the Money Market: Disturbances Gradually Intensify, and It May Tighten Periodically" - In August, the money market was "loose but trending towards tightness with intensified fluctuations". DR007 and R007 fluctuated, and the money market was sensitive to disturbances. The short - term rise in interest rates compressed the arbitrage space and put pressure on leveraged funds, and the short - term pattern of treasury bond futures was bearish [21][23] "Monetary Policy: The Loose Tone Remains Unchanged, Pay Attention to Short - Term Interest Rate Risks" - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report continued the "moderate easing" tone, with more emphasis on liquidity stability and targeted support. The marginal interest rate cut was less than expected, and the bond market lacked significant short - term positives [21][28] "Real Estate: The Core of Confidence Drag, Marginal Improvement Remains to Be Seen" - Real estate is the core drag on the economy, with continuous declines in housing prices and investment. Policy support signals are obvious, but it is difficult to reverse the downward trend in the short term. If the real estate market stabilizes, it will be bearish for long - term treasury bonds; if it continues to decline, the bond market has long - term allocation value [4][21][34][35] "Risk Points: Hidden Worries Beyond Real Estate" - Consumption, investment, and exports are all restricted. Consumption recovery lacks sustainability, investment growth is weak, and external demand is under pressure. In addition, the rise in the stock market and commodity prices has led to a shift in funds from the bond market, and the supply of interest - rate products has increased [44][49][51] "Treasury Bond Futures Strategy" - In the short term, treasury bond futures are in a weak pattern due to money market disturbances, rising risk appetite, and increased supply pressure. In the long term, the trend depends on the real estate market. The current strategy should be short - term bearish, and long - term positions should be adjusted dynamically according to the real estate and consumption recovery [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Core Viewpoint - None provided Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On August 20, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.7557 million contracts; that of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.563 million contracts; that of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2.0703 million contracts; that of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.2175 million contracts; that of ChiNext ETF options was 2.6487 million contracts; that of SSE 50 index options was 0.0458 million contracts; that of CSI 300 index options was 0.0998 million contracts; and that of CSI 1000 options was 0.2751 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 0.8999 million call and 0.8094 million put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 1.7093 million contracts [20] 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.69, with a month - on - month change of +0.10; the open - interest PCR was 1.04, with a month - on - month change of +0.07. Similar data are provided for other types of options [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, open - interest PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options [36] 3. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 20.94%, with a month - on - month change of +0.73%. Similar data for other options are also included [3] - The table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The top of the August contract's freight rate has emerged, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price, with the final estimated settlement price around 2100 points [4]. - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated during the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Under normal circumstances, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists for the December contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. - For strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1290/2160; HPL's various time - period quotations are relatively stable at 1535/2435. Many other shipping companies' prices are also provided, and the prices of some shipping companies are showing a downward trend [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas condemned Israel's military action "Gideon Chariot 2", stating that Israel is continuing the 22 - month - long genocide war and ignoring the efforts of mediators to promote a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees [2]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of August is 283,100 TEU, with 262,300/304,000 TEU in weeks 34/35 respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in September is 315,800 TEU, and in October it is 281,300 TEU. There are also information about overtime ships and empty sailings [3]. 2. Futures Contracts Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining. The final estimated delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - **October Contract**: It is an off - season contract, mainly short - allocated. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rates of many shipping companies are falling, and HPL's two overtime ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but not to chase short excessively [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists, and the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. 3. Shipping Company Price Trends - Many shipping companies' prices are showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's week 36 price drops to 2100 US dollars/FEU, HPL's late - August freight rate drops to 2435 US dollars/FEU, and the prices of OA and PA alliances also follow the downward trend [5]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Market Trends - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU [8]. - The current shipping market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, shipping capacity adjustments, and the off - peak and peak seasons, which jointly affect the freight rate trends [2][3][4][5][6].

能源上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注绿色大工程。 1）中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平，20日听取西藏自治区党委 和政府工作汇报。习近平指出，要有力有序有效推进雅下水电工程、川藏铁路等重大项目建设。要加强生态文明 建设，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，守护好"世界屋脊"和"亚洲水塔"。 服务行业：港交所将研究24小时交易机制。 1）在港交所2025年中期业绩会议上，港交所集团行政总裁陈翊庭表 示：我们注意到纳斯达克拟于2026年下半年实施每周5天24小时交易机制。港交所将秉持审慎渐进原则，在充分借 鉴国际同业经验的基础上，结合本地市场实际情况进行研究。该进程需待交易系统升级、风险管理体系完善及监 管框架配套成熟后逐步完善。2）财政部发布公告，宣布自2025年1月1日起，对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿 补贴免征个人所得税。卫生健康部门将与财政部门、税务部门建立信息共享机制，县级卫生健康部门将为申领补 贴的人员办理个人所得税免税申报 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：液化天然气价格回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格持续回升。 风险 宏观日报 | 2025-08-21 经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share mid - term dividends are increasing, and the stock index has rebounded. The spot market shows that the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% to 3766.21 points, reaching a ten - year high, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.23%. The number of listed companies announcing mid - term dividend plans has significantly increased, with over 140 companies announcing plans and the total proposed dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures has significantly narrowed, and both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures have increased [2]. - In recent days, the A - share market has shown a pattern of low - opening reversals and high - opening pullbacks. With the continuous increase in market expectations, washing behavior is mostly carried out through intensified intraday fluctuations. The technology sector has shown catalytic effects, the semiconductor market has exploded, and foreign capital inflows have also boosted the consumer sector. The market has shown obvious high - low switching characteristics, and attention should be paid to the risks after the low - level weighted stocks make up for losses [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Focus**: President Xi Jinping emphasized that Tibet should continue to focus on stability, development, ecology, and border strengthening. Major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway should be promoted in an orderly manner [1]. - **Overseas Focus**: The minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting showed that most officials thought it appropriate to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and only two officials advocated for a rate cut. The use of payment - type stablecoins may accelerate expansion, which could increase the demand for reserve assets, including treasury bonds [1]. - **Stock Market Performance**: In the A - share spot market, most sector indexes were up, with beauty care, petroleum and petrochemicals, electronics, and the automotive industry leading the gains, while only the pharmaceutical and biological industry closed slightly lower. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on that day was 2.4 trillion yuan. In the overseas market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04% to 44938.31 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.67% to 21172.86 points [1]. - **Futures Market Performance**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures has significantly narrowed, and both the trading volume and open interest have increased [2]. Strategy - The A - share market has shown a pattern of low - opening reversals and high - opening pullbacks. With the continuous increase in market expectations, washing behavior is mostly carried out through intensified intraday fluctuations. The technology sector has shown catalytic effects, the semiconductor market has exploded, and foreign capital inflows have also boosted the consumer sector. The market has shown obvious high - low switching characteristics, and attention should be paid to the risks after the low - level weighted stocks make up for losses [3]. Charts - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US treasury bond yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US treasury bond yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. Also include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Include the open interest and trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, the latest open interest ratios of these contracts, the net open interest of foreign capital in these contracts, the basis of these contracts, and the inter - delivery spread of these contracts [6][15][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of concerns about the reduction of production capacity and restructuring in the South Korean petrochemical industry, the chemical sector rose significantly on Wednesday afternoon. If the restructuring, reduction, or suspension of production in the South Korean petrochemical industry affects PX, the impact will be relatively large, and currently, the impact is concentrated on naphtha cracking [1]. - The cost - side is affected by the meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia, and the negotiation situation is good but no agreement has been reached. Attention should be paid to the US - Ukraine summit this week. The PX balance sheet has changed from destocking to a loose balance, and the fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. The floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PX is still in a low - inventory state. The demand side of PTA has passed the most pessimistic period, and the supply - demand situation has improved in the short term due to PTA maintenance, but the price is suppressed by the mainstream suppliers' shipments [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 89.4% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%). The most pessimistic period of the current off - season for demand has passed, and there are signs of improvement in local orders. The load of weaving and texturing has rebounded, and the sales of filament factories have increased. It is expected that the polyester load will continue to stabilize and rise in the short term [3]. - For the single - side strategy, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. For the cross - variety strategy, short the PTA processing fee when it is high and long the PR processing fee when it is low. There is no cross - period strategy [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Basis - The charts include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts involve the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - The charts include the sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profits [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - The charts involve polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [73][82][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip inter - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip inter - two - month spread (two months later - base month) [91][93][101]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The economic data in July showed resilience globally, but there were still pressures in China's monthly economic data. The market sentiment and fundamentals were divergent, and attention should be paid to the potential demand changes after the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" [1]. - The current tariff situation was in a "stagnant" phase, which would have a certain negative impact on commodities highly dependent on external demand. There were uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation, and the export of Japan was significantly affected [2]. - Different commodity sectors had different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors were sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, and the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefited from overseas inflation expectations. The "anti - involution" progress and the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of the April reciprocal tariffs were the key points for future market trends [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [4]. Market Analysis - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and the central bank kept the LPR unchanged. In the US, the July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved. The implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" required attention to subsequent demand [1]. - On August 20, A - shares rose, with semiconductor, automobile, and liquor sectors performing strongly, while pharmaceutical stocks adjusted. Most domestic commodity futures declined, with lithium carbonate down 8%, soda ash down 5%, and glass down over 4% [1]. Tariff Impact - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" for some countries. The US and China agreed to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% rate, and Trump might announce a 300% semiconductor tariff [2]. - After the July FOMC meeting, Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. Japan's exports in July had the largest year - on - year decline in four years, especially to the US [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors were sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, and the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefited from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector was dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persisted [3]. - The energy supply was expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, with OPEC+ increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. There were positive developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and Trump had no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea was worthy of attention. The short - term fluctuations of agricultural products were limited due to the absence of weather disturbances [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [4]. Key News - China's five - year and one - year LPR in August remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [5]. - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list on August 19. Trump called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The eurozone's July CPI met expectations, and Japan's exports in July had the largest decline in four years [5].

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on August 20, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Provides data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, and their changes compared with the previous trading day, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 7988.73 billion yuan, a +20.55% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 13042.25 billion yuan, a +5.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.01% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 6811.35 billion yuan, a +1.40% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 7939.97 billion yuan, a -1.62% change; the trading - holding ratio was 85.67% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic metal: On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 4609.23 billion yuan, a +26.01% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4936.47 billion yuan, a -2.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 113.62% [1] - Precious metal: On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 2727.21 billion yuan, a +48.25% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4205.49 billion yuan, a -0.96% change; the trading - holding ratio was 87.95% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 6065.40 billion yuan, a +32.41% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4176.58 billion yuan, a -2.00% change; the trading - holding ratio was 128.89% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 3822.27 billion yuan, a +8.91% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5888.62 billion yuan, a -3.97% change; the trading - holding ratio was 58.38% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On August 20, 2025, the trading volume was 4074.99 billion yuan, a +27.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3791.84 billion yuan, a -3.75% change; the trading - holding ratio was 101.71% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by factors such as global supply - demand adjustments, domestic supply expectations, and downstream demand. The sugar market is influenced by Brazilian production estimates and domestic supply pressure. The pulp market faces supply and demand challenges with high inventory and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 649,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% and a month - on - month increase of 3.33% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks made the supply - demand pattern shift from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. Domestically, the supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton production is expected to increase [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but policy regulation may limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton (+ 0.26%) from the previous day. In July, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production data shows a decline in some aspects but a high sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar sales have slowed, and imported sugar pressure is increasing [5][6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short - term, sugar prices will likely oscillate due to supply pressure, but a potential tail - end rise may occur in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, a change of - 42 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong decreased by 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure exists in the second half of the year with high port inventories. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, and the improvement of terminal demand is expected to be limited [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9]