贵金属日报 | 2025-10-16 美国政府继续停摆 贵金属维持强势 市场分析 IMF发布最新一期《财政监测报告》指出，到2029年，全球公共债务规模预计将首次突破GDP的100%；IMF警告 称如果当前财政支出与债务增长趋势得不到遏制，全球金融稳定性可能面临严重威胁。美国政府方面，美国参议 院以51票对44票的投票结果，再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案；据悉，需要60票才能推进这项将为政府提供 资金直至11月底的法案。美联储方面，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰最新表示，近期的贸易紧张局势加大了经济增长前 景的不确定性，因此决策者更有必要尽快降息。 2025-10-15，沪金主力合约开于937.50元/克，收于960.34元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动2.27%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于962.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.18%。 2025-10-15，沪银主力合约开于11430.00元/千克，收于11966.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.75%。当日成交 量为2033514手，持仓量为477807手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, with high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut and relatively stable fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation trend for the nickel futures contract [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand, stainless - steel prices are also projected to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,761 (-26,323) lots, and the open interest was 68,681 (-4,426) lots. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut led to a weak oscillation trend under stable fundamentals [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. Sea freight declined due to reduced shipping demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, while some northern Chinese factories started "winter storage". The Indonesian nickel ore market had a continuous supply - surplus pattern, and the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market selling price was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was cold, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 26,558 (+1,531) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 246,756 (+3,498) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 113,216 (-37,540) lots, and the open interest was 193,490 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a weak - oscillation trend, and price decline was due to the game between cost support and weak demand [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained cautious, and spot trading was light with stable spot premiums. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 455 - 755 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The recommended single - side strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market faces uncertainties due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, with new - year production increase expectations suppressing the market and weak demand. The sugar market has production uncertainties due to typhoon - affected areas, while being influenced by macro - sentiment. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and high inventory, and is affected by the macro - situation [2][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,270 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,513 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 4.077 million tons. For 2025/26, planted area is expected to be 2.138 million hectares (about 32.07 million mu), up 2.5% year - on - year; yield per mu is expected to be 125.7 kg, down 3.5% year - on - year; total production is expected to be 4.031 million tons, down 1.1% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US federal government shutdown affected data release. The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and weak demand. In China, cotton de - stocking is fast, but the pre - holiday seed cotton purchase was cautious. New cotton listing during the National Day limited the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and new - year production increase expectations may cause short - term weakness in cotton prices [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Pakistan invited bids to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar, with the possibility of a deal seemingly decreasing. The government approved a plan to import 500,000 tons of sugar to stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were flat. Brazilian sugar production increased in the first half of September, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price. In China, the peak - season sales were poor, imports were high, and new sugar cane harvest started. Typhoons affected some areas, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Typhoon - affected areas may support sugar prices, but the Sino - US trade friction may increase market volatility [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8] - Imported wood pulp spot prices were mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [8] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. Overseas阔叶浆 mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual September transactions were poor. Global supply pressure remains, and domestic port de - stocking is slow. Demand in Europe, the US, and China is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [9] Strategy - Neutral. The tariff war and weak fundamentals may keep pulp prices in a bottom - seeking trend [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is cautiously bearish, with a short - term recommendation of waiting and seeing [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On October 15, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.1% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 82,783 lots, a decrease of 16,325 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 112,815 lots, an increase of 12,090 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,320 - 3,670 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,350 - 3,550 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,450 - 3,550 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices in the Northwest, Northeast, and East China remained relatively stable, while those in other regions declined to varying degrees [1] - The overall rigid demand for asphalt was weak, and the actual trading volume in the spot market was average. The peak - season characteristics on the demand side were not obvious. With the downward shift of oil prices and the weak fundamentals of asphalt itself, the market was driven downward, causing the asphalt futures prices to decline continuously. Considering the uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects, crude oil prices may fluctuate repeatedly and disrupt the asphalt market [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The asphalt futures prices declined, and the open interest decreased while the trading volume increased. The spot prices in most regions dropped, and the demand was weak, leading to a downward - driven market [1] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish and wait and see in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Figures - There are multiple figures showing various data related to asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures contract prices (index, main, and near - month), trading volume and open interest, production volume (domestic weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions), consumption volume (road, waterproof, coking, and ship - fuel), and inventory volume (refinery and social) [3]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-16 周中苯乙烯港口库存仍未见去化 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差46元/吨（+13）。纯苯港口库存9.00万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费135美元/吨（-1 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费120美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差80.5美元/吨（+4.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货 -M2价差50元/吨（+10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1830元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-526元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润478元/吨（+140）， 己二酸生产利润-1288元/吨（+5）。己内酰胺开工率96.00%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-1.00%），苯胺开工率 77.16%（+1.12%），己二酸开工率66.90%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差0元/吨（-41元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-588元/吨（-42元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存196500吨（-5400吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存121500吨（+5100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.6%（+2.4 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-16 烧碱山东去库，江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4677元/吨（-15）；华东基差-77元/吨（+15）;华南基差-17元/吨（+15）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-12元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-622元/吨（+153）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-538元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润6.8美元/吨（-12.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.4万吨（+8.4）；PVC社会库存55.7万吨（+1.9）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量58.3万吨（-19.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2438元/吨（+10）；山东32%液碱基差156元/吨（-10）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 期权到期叠加消息端扰动，多晶硅盘面大幅反弹 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-15，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8495元/吨，最后收于8570元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-10） 元/吨，变化（-0.12）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓142381手，2025-10-15仓单总数为50357手，较前一日变化 -840手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM数据，近期新疆粘接硅煤受原煤价格下调，及西南地区枯水期硅厂停产使需求下行影响，新疆粘接硅煤价格 呈下调态势，目前新疆粘接硅煤价格至1300-1650元/吨，下调幅度约250元/吨，另外陕西地区硅煤在成本支撑减弱 情况下，也呈现小幅波动下调，下调幅度约25元/吨，目前均价至750元/吨。 消费端：据SM ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and domestic soybean meal markets are mainly oscillating due to the lack of clear data guidance caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [3] - For the corn market, new - season corn in Northeast China is starting to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall corn output this year has increased, and it is expected that the purchase price will decline after the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the purchase situation [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2917 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2357 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2101 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.38%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.67%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton [4] Brazilian Soybean Data - The Brazilian National Supply Company predicts that in the 2025/26 season, the soybean planting area will be 49.074 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the yield per hectare will be 3.62 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the output will be 177.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export volume will be 112 million tons, higher than the previous year's 107 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 2.166 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 271,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%. In contrast, the total export volume in October 2024 was 4.71 million tons [2] US Corn Export Data - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.129708 million tons, lower than the market - expected range, a week - on - week decrease of 34% but a year - on - year increase of 120% [4] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal Market - Due to the US government shutdown, there is a lack of clear data guidance, and the market is mainly oscillating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [3] Corn Market - New - season corn in Northeast China is starting to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall corn output this year has increased, and it is expected that the purchase price will decline after the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the purchase situation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The price of soybeans is expected to continue to face downward pressure due to the continuous release of soybeans by Cofco and the increasing supply pressure [3] - The price of peanuts is affected by multiple factors in the production areas, with the overall listing progress being slow and the trading being cautious [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2511 contract yesterday was 3999.00 yuan/ton, a change of +46.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.16% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 41, a change of -46 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] Market Information Summary - Northeast new-season soybeans are mostly harvested, with over 90% of the remaining grain. High-protein soybeans are in short supply and prices are firm, while low-protein soybeans are weak. Low-protein common soybeans are priced at 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein at 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein at 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin [2] - Cofco auctioned 43,037 tons of domestic soybeans yesterday, with 28,532 tons actually sold at the base price of 3900 yuan/ton. Tomorrow, 44,835 tons of old soybeans will be released, and the base price is expected to remain stable [3] Strategy - Neutral [4] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 8062.00 yuan/ton, a change of +198.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +2.52% [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8360.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK11 + 138.00, a change of -198.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -58.93% [4] Market Information Summary - The average price of common peanuts in the national market is 4.18 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin. Regional and variety price differences are large [4] - The overall listing progress of peanuts is slow, and the market focus is on the listing progress, yield, and quality in Henan. Some areas may still have limited supply due to weather [5] Strategy - Neutral [4]

尿素日报 | 2025-10-16 厂内库存继续累积，印标投标数量公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-15，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（+3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-3）；河南基差：-60元/吨（-3）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（+0），出口利润986元/ 吨（-30）。 供应端：截至2025-10-15，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-15，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，山西及内蒙低价成 交延续。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以 ...