Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - India will continue to import Russian oil even under the threat of high tariffs as it's difficult to find a complete substitute for Russian oil supply, and the Friendship Pipeline's southern line has resumed oil supply [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The September - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 86 cents to $63.21 per barrel, a 1.38% increase; the October - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.05 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.60% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.95% at 487 yuan per barrel [1] - **India's Oil Imports**: Russia expects India to continue buying its oil. As of mid - 2025, India imports about 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil per day, accounting for nearly 37% of its overseas purchases. Russian oil has a about 5% price discount, and Indian state - owned refineries have placed orders for Russian oil [1] - **US Crude Oil Exports**: After a slow summer, US crude oil exports are starting to recover. Exports in August and September are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [1] - **UAE Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending August 18, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 15.491 million barrels, down 1.936 million barrels from the previous week, the lowest level since November 25, 2024 [1] - **South Korea's Petrochemical Industry**: South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut naphtha cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tons per year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The LPR quote remained unchanged in August, and the monetary policy continued with a moderately loose tone. The signal of overall loosening was still unclear, which was in line with market expectations. Although the bond market was still disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market in the short term, its overall downward space was limited supported by the fundamentals and capital situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month change and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80%, up 0.50% month - on - month with a growth rate of 6.02%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.40% month - on - month with a decline rate of 0.80% [9]. - The US dollar index was 98.23, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 0.04%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1865, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.12%. DR007 was 1.57, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.48%. R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 with a decline rate of 7.38%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.01%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.01% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The section includes figures such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][21]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - It includes figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28]. IV. Spread Overview - It includes figures such as the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [31][38][40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][52]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the，treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][72]. Market Analysis Macro Aspect - The Politburo meeting in July proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, manage the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, resolve local government debt risks actively and steadily, and prohibit the addition of implicit debts. On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds would be subject to value - added tax. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. On August 19, the Ministry of Finance announced market - making support operations to increase the supply of scarce bond types [1]. - In July, the year - on - year change of CPI was flat [1]. Capital Aspect - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded to 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, and the gap narrowed to 3.2%, indicating abundant liquidity and increased activity of corporate current funds. However, the credit derivation efficiency was weak, and the medium - and long - term loans of residents and enterprises continued to shrink, with insufficient investment and consumption demand. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock was only 9%, mainly relying on government bond issuance to add leverage. The medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises remained sluggish, and a large amount of funds flowed to non - bank institutions [2]. - On August 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [2]. - The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.473%, 1.534%, 1.596%, and 1.532% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [2]. Market Aspect - On August 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.43 yuan, 107.86 yuan, and 116.05 yuan respectively. The price change rates were 0.00%, - 0.10%, - 0.18%, and - 0.35% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.024 yuan, 0.137 yuan, 0.069 yuan, and 0.589 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase interest rate rebounded and the treasury bond futures prices fluctuated, it was recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - **Hedging**: There was medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors could use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - PVC unilateral: Neutral; PVC inter - period: Wait - and - see; PVC inter - variety: None [4] - Caustic soda unilateral: Wait - and - see; Caustic soda inter - period: SH10 - 01 long the spread when prices are low; Caustic soda inter - variety: None [5] Group 2: Core Views - PVC exports in July were 330,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 113%. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 2.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 57%. Due to the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, PVC exports in July exceeded expectations. However, the overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak, with high supply pressure and low downstream demand [2] - The upstream production of caustic soda maintains a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. The demand side shows that the alumina industry has stable profits and production, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has also increased slightly. The inventory of caustic soda is decreasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Price and Basis - PVC main contract closing price: 5,008 yuan/ton (+7); East China basis: - 288 yuan/ton (- 17); South China basis: - 208 yuan/ton (- 27) [1] - East China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,720 yuan/ton (- 10); South China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,800 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Semi - coke price: 630 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide price: 2,755 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide profit: - 39 yuan/ton (+0); PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit: - 231 yuan/ton (+21); PVC ethylene - based production gross profit: - 540 yuan/ton (- 51); PVC export profit: 24.7 US dollars/ton (+6.5) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - PVC factory inventory: 327,000 tons (- 10,000); PVC social inventory: 493,000 tons (+12,000); PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate: 79.21% (+1.38%); PVC ethylene - based operating rate: 77.92% (+0.37%); PVC overall operating rate: 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] Downstream Orders - Production enterprise pre - sales volume: 791,000 tons (- 41,000) [1] Caustic Soda Price and Basis - SH main contract closing price: 2,655 yuan/ton (+57); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis: - 30 yuan/ton (- 57) [1] - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: 840 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda spot price: 1,340 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Shandong caustic soda single - product profit: 1,634 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine): 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 583.78 yuan/ton (- 10.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 1,367.74 yuan/ton (- 10.00) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - Liquid caustic soda factory inventory: 437,800 tons (- 23,900); Flake caustic soda factory inventory: 23,300 tons (+1,200); Caustic soda operating rate: 84.10% (- 1.00%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate - Alumina operating rate: 85.64% (- 0.09%); Printing and dyeing operating rate in East China: 61.46% (+2.18%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 86.04% (+1.07%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - EG futures and spot prices rose, with the main EG contract closing at 4,477 yuan/ton (+93 yuan/ton, +2.12% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market at 4,502 yuan/ton (+47 yuan/ton, +1.05% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). [2] - Concerns about the restructuring of the South Korean petrochemical industry led to a sharp rise in the chemical sector on Wednesday afternoon. Most of South Korea's MEG production capacity has been shut down, with only four units in operation, totaling around 550,000 tons of ethylene glycol production capacity. The impact on EG is mainly on the cost side of ethylene prices. [2] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton (up $4/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was -116 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). [2] - MEG inventory data from different sources showed different trends. According to CCF, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons (down 6,000 tons month - on - month), while according to Longzhong, it was 535,000 tons (up 49,000 tons month - on - month). [3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, domestic EG supply is expected to see the total EG operating rate rise above 70%, and overseas imports are expected to rebound to around 650,000 tons after August. The off - season for demand is over, and polyester load is expected to stabilize and rise slightly. The balance sheet for August - September shows a slight inventory build - up, with both supply and demand increasing. [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,477 yuan/ton, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,502 yuan/ton. The EG spot basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton. [2] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was -116 yuan/ton. The domestic total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%, and the syngas - made EG load has returned to a high level. [2][3] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the summary text. Only the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" was mentioned. [21] Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data on downstream production, sales and operating rates were provided in the summary text. Only relevant figures were mentioned, such as long - filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, etc. [22][24] Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons (down 6,000 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 535,000 tons (up 49,000 tons month - on - month). Last week, the total actual arrivals at the main ports were 141,000 tons, and this week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 54,000 tons, with 43,000 tons at the secondary ports. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is weakly oscillating, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Core Viewpoints - The spot regional circulation volume of asphalt has increased, and the market continues to oscillate weakly. The current supply - demand pattern remains weak. Under the influence of weather and capital factors, the improvement of rigid demand is limited, speculative demand is also weak, the decline of social inventory is weaker than the seasonal level, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. If oil prices continue to fall in the future, asphalt prices will also weaken further. In the short term, attention should be paid to the additional impact of the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the oil market sentiment [1] Market Analysis - On August 20, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,454 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton or 0.01% compared to the previous settlement price. The open interest was 217,538 lots, a decrease of 2,214 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 146,021 lots, an increase of 4,045 lots compared to the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt according to Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,450 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,480 - 3,530 yuan/ton in South China; 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The prices in North China and South China markets decreased slightly yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly oscillating - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social inventories) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For industrial silicon, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [3] - For polysilicon, in the short - term, a range - trading strategy is suggested, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating weakly, mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. The current fundamentals have little change, and the spot price has declined [2][3] - Polysilicon futures prices are in wide - range oscillation, mainly influenced by anti - involution policies. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain wide - range oscillation, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8500 yuan/ton and closed at 8390 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.89% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279,868 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,613 lots, a change of - 12 lots from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: Industrial silicon spot prices declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 150) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (- 150) yuan/ton [2] - **Export and Import**: In July 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 37%, reaching a new monthly high since 2022. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The import volume in July 2025 was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 5300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65% [2] - **Consumption**: The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The overall industry start - up of monomer plants was at a relatively high load, and the overall output was relatively stable compared with last week, but the implicit pressure on enterprises increased. In July 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxane was 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.01%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 325,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.85% [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 150,086 (137,977 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 704,931 lots [4] - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a month - on - month change of 3.86%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a month - on - month change of 3.60%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,300.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.30%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.67%) [6] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.54 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - **Component Price**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. For example, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both the apple and red date industries are rated as neutral [3][8] 2. Core Views - For the apple industry, the current remaining inventory in production areas is low, and the expected new - season output shows little change compared to last year. The apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] - For the red date industry, in the case where the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, with the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in new - season production is less than expected, prices may return to a weak state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8064 yuan/ton, a change of - 86 yuan/ton or - 1.06% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 464 in Shandong and AP10 + 936 in Shaanxi both increased by 86 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price fell yesterday. The supply of early - maturing Gala apples increased significantly with a polarized price. The inventory apple market remained dull, with a high proportion of large and high - quality fruits. The quality of new - season fruits and price changes of early - maturing apples should be monitored [2] - Last week, it was difficult to organize a large quantity of high - quality early - maturing fruits in western production areas, providing some sales space for inventory apples. However, due to poor consumption, the overall sales speed was slow. Currently, the inventory is at a low level, supporting the price of inventory apples. The poor quality of early - maturing apples led to slow sales of both early - maturing and inventory apples last week. The low price of new - season Fuji apples reduced the profit of merchants [2] - This week, early - maturing varieties such as Shaanbei Gala and Shandong Luli and Jinduhong will be listed, which may squeeze the inventory apple market. It is expected that the inventory reduction of apples will slow down this week, and the price of Gala apples in some areas may decline [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Due to the low inventory in production areas and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year, the apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11530 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton or - 0.17% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1930 increased by 20 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The main production areas have entered the fruit - swelling period and started to sweeten. There has been occasional light rain in the production areas, and the frequency may increase in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there are abnormal weather conditions and their impact on red dates [7] - In the production areas, the fruit - setting of the first crop of flowers in some date orchards was average, but the temperature drop and rainfall in early July led to good fruit - setting of the second and third crops of flowers. In August, strong winds in some areas caused a small amount of fruit drop in date orchards. Attention should be paid to weather changes [7] - In the sales areas, the spot price is strong, and downstream merchants replenish their stocks as needed, with an improved trading atmosphere. Since June, the market has been trading based on the expectation of a reduction in new - season production, and is highly sensitive to abnormal weather in production areas. Currently, the game between bulls and bears has intensified, and there are significant differences in the expected new - season production of red dates [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the case where the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, with the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in new - season production is less than expected, prices may return to a weak state [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment has improved, but the steel price is expected to have limited adjustment space due to cost support [1] - The iron ore market is affected by environmental production restrictions and supply - demand changes, with short - term intensified contradictions and long - term loose supply [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is recovering slowly, and the price is expected to move sideways, with the need to focus on supply recovery and downstream restocking [6] - The thermal coal market has a weakening demand, with short - term price fluctuations and a long - term loose supply pattern [8] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract at 3402 yuan/ton. National building material production slightly decreased, and total inventory increased; plate production and inventory both slightly increased. Spot trading was average, with better low - price transactions and recovered speculative sentiment [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Building material production and sales continued to weaken, and inventory increased month - on - month. Plate production and sales increased month - on - month, but high steel prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply by compressing profits, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties had small fluctuations. Total port transactions were 119.0 million tons, up 3.48% month - on - month; forward spot transactions were 167.5 million tons, up 74.84% month - on - month [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply increased as shipments rebounded and sea - floating iron ore arrived at ports. Demand was affected by intensified production restrictions in Tangshan. Inventory decreased from a high level. Short - term contradictions intensified, and long - term supply was loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures contracts fluctuated. Some coke enterprises faced production restrictions, and the price of coking coal in the main production areas declined steadily. Imported Mongolian coal trading was quiet [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Coke supply was expected to shrink due to approaching parades. Coking plants' seventh price increase was not implemented. Coking coal supply was slowly recovering, and some mines had inventory accumulation [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices declined steadily. Power coal consumption decreased, and demand weakened. Port market sentiment declined, and import coal had a price advantage [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Production area supply was slowly recovering. Short - term prices fluctuated, and long - term supply was loose [8] - Strategy: No strategy provided [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a policy adjustment by the US SRE, which is putting pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to a volatile and downward trend in the prices of the three major oils [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,554 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan or 1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan or 0.22% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.28%, with a spot basis of P01 + -114 yuan, a decrease of 134 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.53%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 46 yuan, a decrease of 108 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 132 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Exports - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [2] - According to Amspec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [2] Oil and Soybean Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,163 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,153 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,045 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,025 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 462 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 456 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 490 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import premium for Mexican Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for US West Coast soybeans (September shipment) was 189 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for Brazilian port soybeans (October shipment) was 303 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Crop Yield Forecasts - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's corn yield in 2025 to be 179.50 bushels/acre, up from 173.25 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,348.31, up from 1,172.48 in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's corn yield in 2025 to be 193.82 bushels/acre, up from 187.54 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,376.59, down from 1,409.02 in 2024 [2]