农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 二育滚动入场，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14000元/吨，较前交易日变动+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.43%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动-20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.01元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+0；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-140。 据农业农村部监测，6月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.57，比昨天下降0.15个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.57，比昨天下降0.17个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.22元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉63.58 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉59.67元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.29元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡16.99元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 综合来 ...

Industry Overview Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View The report provides an overview of various industries, including production, service, upstream,中游, downstream, and market pricing, highlighting recent trends and developments in each sector. Summary by Category Production and Service Industries - Shanghai plans to build a world - class ship and offshore engineering equipment industrial cluster, aiming for an industry added - value of over 45 billion yuan by 2030 and a localisation rate of over 85% for large LNG carriers [1]. - The memory market, led by DDR4, is rapidly warming up, with DDR4 particle prices doubling in just two weeks [1]. - Six departments have issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [1]. - Retirement pensions are exempt from personal income tax in Beijing [1]. Upstream - International oil prices decreased significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - Coal inventory in Qinhuangdao decreased [2]. - Egg prices have rebounded recently [2]. Midstream - The polyester operating rate declined, while the PX operating rate increased [3]. - The coal consumption of power plants dropped to a three - year low, and the power plant operating rate decreased [3]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low [4]. - The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the entire industry has slightly declined recently [5]. Industry Credit Spread - The credit spreads of multiple industries, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, have declined this week [48]. Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemicals, have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling [49].

需求缺乏亮点，现货涨跌互现 液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-26 市场分析 1、\t6月25日地区价格：山东市场，4750—4830；东北市场，4160—4310；华北市场，4590—4700；华东市场， 4580—4750；沿江市场，4830—4980；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，稳定，丁烷545美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4773元/吨，稳定，丁烷4300元/吨，涨1元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 随着中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅， 并带动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变数，LPG市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段。目前来看，整体供需格 局仍偏宽松，海外供应较为充裕，国内炼厂检修结束后商品量也逐步回升，短期到港压力则有所缓和。需求方面， 燃烧需求疲软，PDH装置开工率有所回升，但利润依然承压，制约 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term strategy for oil prices is to wait and see as they are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations, and the medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent significant declines in US commercial crude oil inventories are due to a combination of factors including slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports. The wildfires in Canada previously led to supply reduction, but with the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and future North American supply may mainly rely on the growth of Canadian oil sands production capacity [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 55 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.85% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 54 cents to $67.68 per barrel, a 0.80% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.77% at 505 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending June 23, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 19.12 million barrels, a 3.8% increase from the previous week, hitting a five - week high. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.332 million barrels to 6.738 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.151 million barrels to 2.044 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.882 million barrels to 10.338 million barrels [1] - Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% and the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% [1] - For the week ending June 20 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (expected - 0.797 million barrels, previous value - 11.473 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.464 million barrels (previous value - 0.995 million barrels); US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.44 million barrels per day from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decrease [1] - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. He believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may break out again. He doesn't think Iran will resume its nuclear program. The US will not give up pressuring Iran and will not take over oil [1] Investment Logic - The recent significant decline in US commercial crude oil inventories is due to slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports, especially the supply reduction caused by Canadian wildfires. With the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and this year's US crude oil export data has reflected this feature, with net export volume of shipments no longer contributing to the increment [2] Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see as oil prices are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations; Medium - term: Take a short position [3] Risk - Downside risks: Faster OPEC production increase rhythm, macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-26 港口库存继续累积 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.10万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费161美元/吨（+12美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国 加工费147美元/吨（+16美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差53.6美元/吨（-5.2美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-35元/吨（-5 元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差582元/吨（-7元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润264元/吨（+100元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨（+18700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨（+21300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润299元/吨（-164元/吨），PS生产利润-401元/吨（-64元/吨），ABS生产利润256元/吨（-99 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 伊朗以色列地缘冲突放缓，原油拖累纯苯及苯乙烯成本。纯苯方面，国产开工率已上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's one - sided strategy rating is neutral, and there is no cross - period strategy [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing crude oil and propane prices to run strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced. There are many short - stop maintenance devices, and it is expected to start up one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not large. The 500,000 - ton/PP device on Line 4 of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been successfully put into production, and the future supply is expected to increase. The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, the demand side remains sluggish, the start - up is expected to remain stable, and the overall operating load is at a low level. The start - up rate of packaging film is lower than the same period in previous years, the start - up of plastic weaving has decreased, the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the macro - level uncertainty is strong [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7271元/吨（+21），PP主力合约收盘价为7084元/吨（+10），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-80），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为49元/吨（-101），LL华东基差为79元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为116元/吨（-50） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）；PE油制生产利润为458.8元/吨（+241.7），PP油制生产利润为58.8元/吨（+241.7），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 1.5元/吨（+139.6） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 6.2元/吨（-90.0），PP进口利润为 - 338.8元/吨（-9.7），PP出口利润为 - 0.7美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.6%（-0.8%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and middle - stream trader inventory has decreased, but no specific data is provided [2]

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-26 消息面相对平静 贵金属暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中表示，关税为一次性影响可能成为基本预期，但需要谨慎应对。在货币政策决 策中不考虑联邦债务问题；稳定币行业已逐步成熟。此外，美联储提议放宽针对大型银行的强化补充杠杆率要求。 而特朗普则表示，将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席。地缘方面，伊朗证实本国核设施在美国空袭中"严重受损"。 特朗普发言称，伊以之间的战争已经结束，冲突可能再次爆发，或许很快，但不会放弃对伊朗的制裁，也不认为 伊朗会重新进行核计划，下周美方将与伊朗会谈，不认为核协议是有必要的。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-25，沪金主力合约开于 769.86元/克，收于 773.94元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.27%。当日成交量为 159583手，持仓量为 145732手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 771.90 元/克，收于 774.02 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.52%。 2025-06-25，沪银主力合约开于 8701元/千克，收于 8726元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 606376手，持仓量 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the premium of crude oil has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has dropped significantly. The crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The monthly spread structure has weakened, reflecting sufficient supply in the spot market. Although there is support from the power generation demand in summer, the cracking spread needs to be further adjusted to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and downstream demand provides short - term support. However, in the medium - term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures prices**: The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.3% to 3011 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 0.49% to 3709 yuan/ton [1]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The monthly spread structure has weakened recently, and the weak profit of downstream refineries restricts procurement demand. With the approaching of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted upwards, which may drive the refinery demand to recover from a low level [1]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the domestic production in May was at a low level. Singapore's marine fuel sales in May increased significantly. But in the medium - term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production is expected to rise after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Middle - East situation eases significantly, the previous oil premium due to geopolitical conflicts has quickly declined, driving down the futures of the energy sector including asphalt. The overall supply - demand weakness in the asphalt market continues, with inventory remaining low. After the sharp drop in oil prices, refinery production costs have improved, which may increase asphalt production capacity utilization. However, due to weather and capital factors, the rigid demand for asphalt lacks highlights, and the overall market has insufficient driving force [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On June 25, the closing price of the main BU2509 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 1.89% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 251,579 lots, a decrease of 17,999 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 282,213 lots, a decrease of 178,364 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,920 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,650 - 4,030 yuan/ton; South China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton; East China, 3,700 - 3,800 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][8] Core Views - The steel market is facing concerns about the off - season, with the black market shifting towards fundamentals. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant, and future attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical conflicts, inventory, and consumption [1]. - The iron ore market is experiencing weak demand in the off - season and is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has eased market sentiment and is operating in a volatile manner. The supply - demand situation of coke has improved, while the price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. - The动力煤 market shows a contraction in supply at the end of the month, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to be strong. In the short term, the price is expected to rise slightly, while the long - term supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 2,976 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,098 yuan/ton. The national building materials turnover was 93,500 tons. The black market is turning to fundamentals, and the supply - demand contradiction of building materials is gradually accumulating. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of building materials, and although exports have slightly declined, they remain high in the short term [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies are proposed for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore continued to weaken, with the main 2509 contract closing at 702.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.077 million tons, a 32.47% increase. The forward spot trading volume was 670,000 tons, a 39.09% decrease. The global shipment increased slightly, iron - making water production increased slightly, and the total iron ore inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: A single - side strategy of weak and volatile is recommended, and no strategies are proposed for other trading types [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures are operating in a volatile manner. The fourth - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the market's expectation of price stability has increased. Many coking coal mines have stopped or reduced production, and the replenishment of coking and steel enterprises is insufficient. The price of imported Mongolian coal is relatively stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a volatile manner, and no strategies are proposed for other trading types [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas continue to be strong. At the end of the month, a few coal mines will complete their production capacity and reduce production. The procurement demand for metallurgy and chemical industry is stable. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the import coal market is stable [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies are proposed [8].