1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (The original text is in Chinese, no English equivalent provided here) [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At present, the processing fee of lead concentrate is still low despite the continuous increase in by - product prices, and there are no major contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting the production - based - on - sales model. It is expected that the lead price will show a volatile pattern, roughly in the range of 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 44.48 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,010 yuan/ton and closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 41,257 lots, a change of - 1,944 lots compared with the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 44,032 lots, a change of 435 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,135 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,960 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,110 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, and traders quoted a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract. In Guangdong, smelters maintained a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for rigid - demand transactions. Downstream consumption showed a slight decline, with battery enterprises mainly taking long - term orders and making a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The spot market transactions were rather light [2] Inventory - On October 15, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 36,000 tons, a change of - 900 tons compared with the same period last week. As of October 15, the LME lead inventory was 254,775 tons, a change of 8,225 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is weak, and the PTA processing fee is compressed again. The supply - demand contradiction of over - supply has emerged due to factors such as the slowdown of China's import demand after the National Day, the increase in US exports, and the increase in Middle East exports. The macro and fundamentals resonate, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver in the short term [1]. - For PX, the PXN is under pressure due to factors like the resumption of high - load operation in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponement of the fourth - quarter maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter. The downstream PTA factory's production reduction and postponed new device production also affect the market sentiment, weakening the Q4 supply - demand outlook [1]. - For TA, the processing fee is repaired but suppressed. The accumulation of inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant, and the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased. The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side operations, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. For cross - variety operations, it is recommended to buy PF processing fees at low prices. For cross - period operations, it is recommended to conduct reverse spreads for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 85 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 83 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 102 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 306 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 0 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PX processing fee PXN is 226 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 1.75 US dollars/ton). The PXN is under pressure due to factors such as the resumption of high - load operation of PX in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponed maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter [1]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits No specific data and in - depth analysis provided in the given text. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high - load operation. With the restart of several overseas devices, the overall PX start - up rate has increased. The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and there are more maintenance plans [1][2]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The accumulation of PTA inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant [2]. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (with a month - on - month change of + 0.0%). The load of weaving and texturing increased in late September, and the orders improved marginally. After the National Day, the filament inventory started to accumulate again, and the terminal raw material procurement is expected to be mainly cautious [2]. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 346 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 46 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load is at a seasonal high, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end [3]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 553 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 44 yuan/ton). The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the overall domestic supply - demand is gradually turning to a loose pattern, with expected slower inventory reduction or restocking, but the low valuation limits the downside. For BR, the supply - demand is expected to be strong in the later period, and the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the upstream butadiene price [6] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,895 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,235 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,895 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] Tire Exports - From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of quantity, the exports were 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] Cote d'Ivoire Rubber Exports - From January to August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Automobile Production and Sales - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 595 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 295 yuan/ton (down 100), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,164 yuan/ton (up 106.66), the NR basis was 899 yuan/ton (down 37); the whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (up 50), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (up 150), the 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (up 30), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,300 yuan/ton (up 350) [3] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheet was 57.19 Thai baht/kg (down 0.46), Thai latex was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 49.65 Thai baht/kg (down 0.30), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.45 Thai baht/kg (up 0.30) [4] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (down 13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (down 17.50%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (down 122,953), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (down 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (down 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (down 705) [5] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 145 yuan/ton (down 115), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,620 yuan/ton (down 30), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,258 yuan/ton (down 63) [5] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 74.69% (up 4.15%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (down 840), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (up 1,300) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Currently, NR is relatively undervalued overseas, and its price performance is significantly stronger than RU, causing the spread between RU and NR to narrow recently. After the rainfall in the main production areas at home and abroad decreases, production gradually recovers, and domestic raw material prices decline. Thai raw material prices remain firm, mainly due to more rain in northern Thailand, but with less rain in southern Thailand, the latex price has loosened. The cost - side support for rubber has no obvious change. In the peak season with reduced rain, the supply is expected to recover. After the downstream tire factories stocked up intensively before the festival, the raw material demand will slow down this week, but the operating rate of tire factories is rising, and the rigid demand remains. The domestic arrival volume is likely to continue to rise, and the overall domestic supply - demand is gradually turning to a loose pattern, with expected slower inventory reduction or restocking. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside is expected to be limited. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. In October, there are still maintenance plans for domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the scale of maintenance may be the same as in September, providing support on the supply side. After the downstream tire factories stocked up intensively before the festival, the raw material demand will slow down this week, but the operating rate of tire factories is rising, and the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply - demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be strong. The current high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the upstream butadiene price [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, but the recent weak performance of crude oil prices due to a looser fundamental situation and potential tariff frictions is suppressing the overall energy sector [1] - Russian fuel oil supply is restricted, with expected lower high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October. The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 2,681 yuan/ton, while the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,156 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, and the market structure is supported [1] - Russian supply is restricted. Due to continuous drone attacks in Ukraine and new sanctions from the UK on October 15, Russian refinery maintenance has increased unexpectedly, and the estimated high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons from the previous month [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and shipping and bunker fuel demand face potential risks. However, the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The demand for propylene has weakened, and the cost side continues to drag down the propylene market. On the supply side, there is still significant pressure due to the resumption of production by some major manufacturers in Shandong and the restart of northern devices before the holiday, despite some PDH device shutdowns for maintenance. On the demand side, although downstream buyers start to purchase at low prices when propylene reaches a phased low, the enthusiasm for chasing high prices is low, and the demand follow - up has weakened. The cost side is under pressure as international oil prices decline due to weak demand and tariff disturbances, and the external propane price, though slightly rebounding, remains weak, which further drags down the propylene market. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6079 yuan/ton (-5), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6215 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6260 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in East China is 136 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis in North China is 181 yuan/ton (-15). [1] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (-1%). The production profit and capacity utilization rate of different propylene production methods are also presented in the data, such as the PDH production method. [1] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is -393 yuan/ton (+30). [1] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 40% (+2.29%), with a production profit of -85 yuan/ton (+20); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 72% (+5%), with a production profit of -344 yuan/ton (-115); and so on for other downstream products. [1] V. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520). [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge; - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high; - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has declined, and port basis is firm. The market is driven by news about whether Iranian sanctioned ships can dock. There are concerns about potential relaxation of sanctions on Iran, and China's new special port dues may affect some US - owned methanol ships' docking [3] - Coal - based methanol operating rate in the inland region has rebounded, and inland inventory is gradually increasing, weakening the support for ports [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Includes figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Involves figures about Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit, and import price differences between different regions (e.g., Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [25][29][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures present methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][42] IV. Regional Price Differences - Shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Contains figures about the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [56][58] Market Data Summary Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 660 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2065 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and its basis is 367 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan). Inner Mongolia South Line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2320 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 222 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan). Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and its basis is 77 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan). Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 197 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 360,900 tons (up 21,500 tons), and Northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (up 19,000 tons). Inland factory pending orders are 228,910 tons (up 113,670 tons), and Northwest factory pending orders are 136,730 tons (up 73,530 tons) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2317 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and its basis is 19 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars), and the East China import price difference is 1 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). Changzhou methanol is 2405 yuan/ton, and Guangdong methanol is 2285 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [2] - Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,491,360 tons (down 51,870 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 773,000 tons (down 20,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 224,000 tons (down 63,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 323,000 tons (up 23,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (up 0.50%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 55 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 298 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 253 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 97 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan), Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 212 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 103 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - term: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the price is high [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 临近交割仓单有限 市场挺价情绪或仍存在 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-15，沪铜主力合约开于 84180元/吨，收于 85800元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.65%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 85240元/吨，收于85160 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.75%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，SMM 1#电解铜现货报价平水至升水180元/吨，均价升水90元，较前日涨40元，电铜价格区间 84950~85520元/吨。日间盘面主力合约波动于84920-85390元/吨，当月与次月价差在Contango80至Back10元/吨间变 动。市场采销情绪双双走弱，主因最后交易日持货商惜售，下游采购清淡。当前报价已转向2511合约，平水铜报 平水至升水60元/吨，好铜升水80-100元/吨。明日换月后，上海地区期货仓单仅6277吨，预计持货商挺价意愿增强。 重要资讯汇总： IMF发布最新一期《财政监测报告》指出，到2029年，全球公共债务规模预计将首次突破GDP的100%；IMF警告 称如果当前财政支出与债务增长趋势得不到遏制，全球金融稳定性可能面临严重威 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins continue to be weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. For PE, factors such as inventory accumulation, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production contribute to the decline. For PP, cost - side weakness and supply - demand imbalances cause the downward movement of the market [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6910元/吨（-8），PP主力合约收盘价为6595元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6910元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6620元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为0元/吨（-52），LL华东基差为40元/吨（-42），PP华东基差为25元/吨（-13）[1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）[1] - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为452.3元/吨（-8.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 147.7元/吨（-8.9），PDH制PP生产利润为174.6元/吨（+64.2）[1] - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 108.2元/吨（-80.0），PP进口利润为 - 554.0元/吨（-30.0），PP出口利润为23.6美元/吨（+3.7）[1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.3%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（+0.5%）[1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. The downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the slow inventory digestion, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production lead to the downward trend. In the future, supply is expected to increase with new device production and restart of shutdown devices, while demand improvement is limited [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is mainly due to the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. Supply is expected to increase with the restart of devices and new production, while demand fails to meet expectations during the peak season. The cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L and PP [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [3] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, with a significant price polarization. The trading of new - season late Fuji apples is affected by weather, and the acquisition and storage time within the year is compressed. The demand after the double festivals has not improved significantly [2][3] - Red dates: If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price will be in a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support. The current quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year, and the new - season yield is estimated to be between 560,000 and 620,000 tons [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,665 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.01% [1] - Spot: The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 3.85 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 965, a change of - 1 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The price of late Fuji apples in the western regions such as Gansu and Shaanxi is stable, with obvious characteristics of high - quality fruits commanding high prices. The supply of red apples in Shandong is still scarce. The overall trading is light due to weather constraints. The price of high - quality apples is stable and slightly strong, while the price of general - quality apples is difficult to strengthen [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral - to - bullish stance, focusing on the game between merchants' acquisition mentality and farmers' selling mentality [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,105 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.05% [4] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 1,605, a change of +5 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The futures price of red dates fluctuated slightly. The supply of red dates in the Hebei sales area is scarce, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The inventory pressure remains, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance, paying attention to consumption, new - season quality, and yield changes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]