1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - In July, the supply growth rate of zinc ingots in China accelerated, and the supply pressure will remain high in August. The downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased after the decline of the spot market, but the high growth of supply outweighs consumption, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are under significant pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$10.96 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -5 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 160 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -35 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 120 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a premium of -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,225 yuan/ton and closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,733 lots, and the open interest was 102,725 lots. The highest price was 22,270 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,125 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 97,000 tons, a change of -3,825 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. In August, the expected production is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The downstream procurement enthusiasm increased after the decline of the spot market, and the spot discount was repaired. The cost of domestic ore TC increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit increased. The downstream operating rate showed relative resilience, but the high growth of supply led to inventory accumulation, and zinc prices are under pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil price dropped last Friday due to the disappointing US non - farm payroll data and OPEC+ production increase. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year as refineries reach peak operation and new supplies enter the market, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1]. - PX supply is expected to increase as Chinese PX plants resume operations and MX production ramps up. The market balance shifts from de - stocking to equilibrium, but PX remains in low inventory. PXN has support on the downside, but the floating price has weakened [1]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Although short - term supply - demand improves due to maintenance, major suppliers' active selling suppresses prices. The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but terminal demand has not improved significantly [2]. - PF is affected by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness and near - month contracts pressured by the forced warehouse receipt cancellation logic [3]. - PR load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range after repair [3]. - The strategy suggests a cautious and bearish view on PX/PTA/PF/PR, and provides cross - variety and cross - period trading strategies [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory I. Price and Basis - Includes TA and PX main contract price, basis, and cross - period spread trends, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Covers PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Consists of toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Involves the operating rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Contains PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes long - filament and short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, long - filament factory inventory days, and operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [47][49][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, and related operating rates and profits [69][75][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and various spreads and profits [90][92][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current peak - season demand for lead prices is not obvious, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition stage between the off - season and peak season. Although terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the groundwork for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, for this variety, one can gradually try long - hedging operations on dips, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On August 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.05/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On August 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, a change of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 46,198 lots, a change of -1,436 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 71,330 lots, a change of -5,008 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,835 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,715 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,660 yuan/ton, a 0.72% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted flat to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory, or at a discount of 120 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract for ex - factory, and some large - discount goods were traded. In Hunan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, some downstream enterprises negotiated for purchases, and the trading was light [2]. Inventory - On August 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a change of -1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 4, the LME lead inventory was 274,225 tons, a change of -1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term [3]. - High - nickel ferroalloy is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable. Stainless steel still has cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, there is a lack of upward momentum for prices. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward trend in the near term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,510 yuan/ton and closed at 120,630 yuan/ton, a 0.54% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 120,522 lots, and the open interest was 95,467 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell rapidly at the opening of the Friday night session, then rebounded after hitting the bottom, and declined slightly after midnight. During the day session, it fell slightly at the opening, then oscillated and recovered, and horizontally oscillated in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day. The US will not adjust the new round of tariffs on multiple countries during the current negotiation. The US President will announce the candidate for the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days. From August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. In the Philippines, mines are mostly in the shipping and delivery stage. Downstream domestic iron plants mostly reduce production loads, and raw material procurement remains cautious. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium of refined nickel mostly remained stable, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,170 (- 204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,865 yuan/ton and closed at 12,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 122,249 lots, and the open interest was 87,475 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel fell slightly at the opening of the night session, then oscillated and rebounded slightly. During the day session, it continuously rose after the opening and oscillated higher in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume and open interest slightly increased compared to the previous trading day. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, and the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, leading to a weakening of the nickel ore market. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars; the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly + 24, unchanged from the previous period, ranging from + 23 - 25. The mainstream quotation of nickel ferroalloy was concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bargaining range of nickel ferroalloy moved up. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, and the futures market quickly rose. Spot prices also increased, but limited by the terminal's willingness to purchase based on rigid demand, only some low - price merchants saw improved sales, and the overall trading situation was average. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 220 to 420 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 913.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

贵金属日报 | 2025-08-05 美联储戴利称降息时机已临近 交易主线转向宽松预期 策略摘要 海外宏观方面，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软，且并无证据表明关税通 胀的持续性，则现阶段转向宽松的时机已经接近。戴利称，年内两次25BP的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调 整，且重要的是是否在9月和12月都降息，而非是否选择降息；考虑到美国非农数据的低迷，目前市场交易重心已 经重新回到年内的货币政策转宽上。关税方面，欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟将在6个月内暂停实施原定于8月7日 对美国生效的关税反制措施；欧盟将继续与美国合作，以敲定一项关于贸易的联合声明。马来西亚同意削减或取 消美国关税清单中98.4%商品的进口关税，并将在五年内采购价值1500亿美元的美国半导体、航空航天和数据中心 领域产品。瑞士联邦委员会表示，在美国宣布对瑞士进口商品征收39%的高关税后，瑞士决定继续进行谈判，必要 时将在8月7日新税率生效后继续谈判。瑞士准备提出更具吸引力的方案。整体看，特朗普政府的新一轮关税税率 公布后各经济体多选择在与美国的谈判中让步，市场对于美关税不确定性风险的定价权重或将降低；短期贵金属 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-05 军工走高，股指低开高走 市场分析 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 特朗普关税政策继续推进。国内方面，商务部数据显示，上半年，我国服务进出口总额38872.6亿元，同比增长8%。 其中，出口16883亿元，增长15%；进口21989.6亿元，增长3.2%。服务贸易逆差5106.6亿元，同比减少1522.1亿元。 海外方面，特朗普称，印度不仅在大量购买俄罗斯石油，而且将其中很大一部分在公开市场上转售，赚取巨额利 润，正因如此，将大幅提高印度向美国支付的关税。欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟将在6个月内暂停实施原定于8 月7日对美国生效的关税反制措施，欧盟将继续与美国合作，以敲定一项关于贸易的联合声明。 股指低开高走。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.66%收于3583.31点，创业板指涨0.50%。行业方 面，板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、机械设备、有色金属、纺织服饰行业领涨，仅商贸零售、石油石化、社会服 务、建筑材料行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.5万亿元。海外市场，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越 来越多的证据表明就业市 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish with a Neutral Bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - The market sentiment has weakened, and the glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly. The glass supply has not seen a policy - driven contraction, and the real - estate sector has dragged down the rigid demand. The soda ash production is high, and there are concerns about future supply expansion and weakening consumption [1]. - The double - silicon market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The silicon - manganese price is under pressure from warehouse receipts, and the ferrosilicon price is expected to fluctuate with the sector, with relatively loose long - term capacity [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated weakly yesterday. After the continuous callback of the spot price, downstream purchasing showed a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Soda ash futures also oscillated weakly, and the spot prices of light and heavy soda ash decreased [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - For glass, the supply has no policy - based contraction, and the real - estate sector has affected the rigid demand. Although speculative demand has increased and factory inventories have decreased, they are still at a high level. For soda ash, the production is down but still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is relatively restrained, but there are expectations of further capacity expansion and weakening consumption [1]. Strategy - Glass: Neutral; Soda Ash: Bearish with a Neutral Bias [2] Double - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese futures had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and the market had a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Ferrosilicon futures fell slightly, and the spot market sentiment worsened [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - For silicomanganese, production increased, iron - water production decreased, and factory inventories decreased significantly. The price is suppressed by warehouse receipts. For ferrosilicon, production continued to increase, apparent demand decreased, and factory inventories are at a medium - high level. In the long - term, capacity is relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Bearish; Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender with a total of over 4.5 million tons and higher prices than the previous round boosted the urea futures price. The current urea production is at a high level with sufficient supply, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. During the export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable, and port inventories will stay high. Downstream industrial demand shows a slow recovery in compound fertilizer production and weak operation in melamine production. The domestic agricultural and industrial demand will gradually enter the off - season, and agricultural demand for urea is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [3] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,733 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory prices of small - sized urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,760 yuan/ton (0), 1,760 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,770 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 27 yuan/ton (-24), 27 yuan/ton (-34), and 37 yuan/ton (-24) respectively [2] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.60% (0.08%). The current urea production is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient, with the operating rate expected to remain high in the future [2][3] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 4, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production are relevant indicators for the operating rate [2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender had a minimum CFR price of 532 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 530 US dollars/ton on the west coast, higher than the previous round. As of August 4, 2025, the export profit was 982 yuan/ton (-88). During the domestic export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable [2][3] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of August 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.68% (+5.10%), and that of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.12 days (+0.18). The compound fertilizer operation is slowly recovering, while the melamine operation is weak [2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.73 million tons (+5.85), and the port sample inventory was 49.30 million tons (-5.00). With the end of the agricultural summer top - dressing season, agricultural demand for urea weakens, and upstream inventories start to accumulate [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - New capacity from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical is ramping up, leading to significant future supply - side pressure. Currently, the peak maintenance season in petrochemical plants temporarily offsets the new capacity expansion pressure. Propane prices are weak, with PDH - based PP profit and PDH operating rate being acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. Polyolefin downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. PE downstream agricultural film operating rate has a slight rebound, while packaging film demand is weak. PP downstream industries like plastic weaving have narrow fluctuations, and the demand side is expected to remain weak. Polyolefin mid - and upstream inventories are slowly being depleted, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year, and the short - term fundamental weak reality continues [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7279元/吨（-38），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（-24），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7060元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 89元/吨（-22），LL华东基差为1元/吨（+18），PP华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+24） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 81.1% (+2.1%), PP operating rate is 76.9% (+0.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 141.5 yuan/ton (+131.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 338.5 yuan/ton (+131.5), PDH - based PP production profit is 271.1 yuan/ton (-141.6) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not detailed in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 70.6 yuan/ton (-93.9), PP import profit is - 505.6 yuan/ton (-44.6), PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+5.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.7% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (-0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin mid - and upstream inventories are slowly being depleted, and the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Downward - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3]