Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, and the absolute value of social inventory is still low, which is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio. However, the domestic price increase lacks fundamental data support, and a short - term callback after the sentiment may occur, but the callback depth is limited. If the destocking of social inventory goes smoothly, the aluminum price is expected to break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply of bauxite is under pressure, the smelting loss has not improved, the supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, the pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the price is undervalued, there may be disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a change of 285 yuan/ton. The highest price was 22,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,292 lots, and the open interest was 446,659 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,742 tons, with a change of 924 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, with a change of 9,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,925 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,945 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,825 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 17 yuan/ton (0.60% change). The highest price was 2,847 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,811 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 299,017 lots, and the open interest was 407,444 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. Propylene spot prices rebound after hitting the bottom, and the futures market is slightly supported to rebound. The supply - demand gap narrows, but the overall supply remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still high. The downstream demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited. The short - term price may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and capacity utilization rate, propylene oxide production profit and capacity utilization rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [39][40][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - factory inventory and PP powder in - factory inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the uncertainty of global trade, which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase. M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a - 1.61% change [10]. - The dollar index is 99.17, with a - 0.31% change. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1021, with a - 0.26% change. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47%, with no change. DR007 is 1.48%, with a - 0.82% change. R007 is 1.51%, with a - 1.24% change. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58%, with a + 0.16% change. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a + 0.16% change [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.41 yuan, and 116.13 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.26% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.002 yuan, 0.018 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and - 0.099 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - In the first half of the year, the fiscal operation was generally stable, with revenue gradually recovering and key expenditures effectively guaranteed. Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds were accelerating their implementation. Looking forward, positive fiscal tools will continue to be used to balance stable growth, people's livelihood protection, and risk prevention [2]. - On November 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.474%, 1.500%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific summarized information provided other than various spread - related chart descriptions. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. Strategy - For unilateral trading, with the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - For hedging, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - Low inventory and tight ore costs support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a pullback after a surge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The price range is between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,605 yuan/ton, closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 61,405 lots, an increase of 5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 43,468 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,815 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,575 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,705 yuan/ton, closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, some lead brands were sold at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. In Hunan, smelters sold at a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. The futures price continued to fluctuate strongly, but downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the intention to take delivery decreased significantly [2] Inventory - On November 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 13, the LME lead inventory was 223,975 tons, a decrease of 1,250 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea spot new orders follow-up has slowed down. Affected by export news, the futures market has risen slightly and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Agricultural autumn fertilization is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilization is also wrapping up. Winter storage fertilizer production has not yet started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. The operating rate of melamine has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments have improved, factory inventories have decreased, and port inventories have slightly increased. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which improves the year-end export outlook and is expected to support the spot market. On November 7, India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tenders, intending to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender closes on November 20, is valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures on Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [3][4][5] 2. Urea Production - Figures on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [4][5] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows figures on production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates [4][5] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Figures on urea small particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small and large particle FOB and CFR prices in China, and urea export and on - screen export profits are presented [4][5] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided [4][5] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract positions and trading volumes are presented [4][5] Market Data - On November 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,658 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 58 yuan/ton (-3), the Henan basis was - 48 yuan/ton (-3), and the Jiangsu basis was - 68 yuan/ton (-13). Urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 940 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (+0.08%), the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42 days) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices drove down the prices of fuel oil futures. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 3.71% at 2,595 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 4.41% at 3,164 yuan/ton [1] - OPEC's latest monthly oil market report shows that the oil market will experience a slight surplus in 2026 as global supply increases, which has an important impact on the overall market expectations [1] - Since Q3, the oil supply in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will become more prominent in the future [1] - Excluding the impact of geopolitical and macro events on market sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for oil prices, which will drive down the price center of downstream fuel oil [1] - The current contradictions in the fundamentals of fuel oil itself are relatively limited. The spread between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of bottom rebound, but there is no strong expectation of differentiation in their strength [1] Group 3: Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety strategy: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2] - Cross-period strategy: None [2] - Spot-futures strategy: None [2] - Options strategy: None [2] Group 4: Chart Information - Multiple charts are provided, including the spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and monthly spreads of Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates continued to correct in the second half of November. Attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of the February 2026 contracts by the exchange [1] - The 12 - month contracts are expected to first trade the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of the price increase letters, and finally the actual implementation until delivery. The valuation of the 12 - month contracts is expected to range from 1700 - 1850 points, with the valuation bottom rising [3] - The February 2026 contracts may have a large expectation gap but are currently suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. Attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of these contracts [4] - The strategy for the 12 - month contracts is oscillatory, and for the February contracts, it is oscillatory and bullish. There is no arbitrage strategy at present [6] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Futures Price - As of November 13, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 74,055 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 41,971 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1632.00, 1170.30, 1380.70, 1483.10, 1111.10, and 1782.30 respectively [5] II. Spot Price - On November 7, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1323/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2212/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $2848/FEU. On November 10, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1504.80 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1329.71 points [5] - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies showed price changes in November and December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 47 was $1365/2280, and in week 48, it was in the range of $2000 - 2100/FEU [1] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity for the remaining 4 weeks was 293,100 TEU. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 312,900 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 5 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [2] - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU were delivered. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 1072,000 TEU in the 12000 - 16999 TEU range and 12 ships with a capacity of 253,800 TEU above 17000 + TEU were delivered [5] IV. Supply Chain - Houthi rebels stated that if the enemy resumes aggression against Gaza, they will resume military operations in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea against Israeli shipping [2] V. Demand and European Economy No specific content provided for in - depth analysis of demand and European economy other than the data - related figures in the table of contents.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern remaining. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential nickel price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is in the consumption off - season, with inventory starting to accumulate and the cost center shifting downwards. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Directory Summaries Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2512 opened at 119,000 yuan/ton and closed at 118,930 yuan/ton, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,848 (-17,400) lots, and the open interest was 112,711 (-4,118) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern with shrinking volume and reducing positions, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Due to weak fundamentals, the rebound momentum was weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, some terminals in the Surigao mining area were still recovering from typhoon weather, and the shipping efficiency was delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron decreased, and iron plants continued to lower their psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium was +26. The Indonesian government announced a 2026 RKAB quota of 3.19 billion tons, but the actual situation depends on next year's policy changes [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The enthusiasm for spot inquiries improved, and downstream buyers made on - demand purchases. The spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 3,800 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant volume was 32,694 (870) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,970 (-144) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The inventory is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential price rebounds. For single - side trading, range - bound operations are recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,470 yuan/ton and closed at 12,475 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,571 (+32,719) lots, and the open interest was 150,646 (-4,171) lots. It showed a narrow - range downward oscillation, similar to the trend of SHFE nickel. Entering the consumption off - season, the stainless - steel inventory showed a slight accumulation trend this week, and the futures market was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained in a wait - and - see state, and the spot trading was light, with on - demand purchases as the main mode. Affected by the downward shift of the cost center and trading conditions, the spot price continued to explore the bottom. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (-75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,800 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 290 - 590 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 907.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to the arrival of the consumption off - season, inventory accumulation, and the downward shift of the cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [4].

油料日报 | 2025-11-14 豆一需求清淡价格维稳，花生关注产区上量与油厂动向 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4129.00元/吨，较前日变化+2.00元/吨，幅度+0.05%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-49，较前日变化-2，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆行情整体平稳，优质大豆价格依然坚挺，且受政策收储支撑，短期内豆价 仍有一定支撑力，其中高蛋白品种价格走势相对更强。目前农户销售意愿尚可，多根据市场行情调整出货节奏， 部分存在一定惜售心理。与此同时，粮食贸易企业收购较为谨慎，多数企业已有一定库存，但往销区的走货速度 相对偏缓。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].