Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.55 to settle at $66.71 per barrel, a gain of 2.38%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.60 to settle at $70.04 per barrel, a gain of 2.34%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 2.06% at 516 yuan per barrel [1] - After the EU-US trade deal was announced by US President Trump, European Commission President von der Leyen explained some decisions in the trade negotiation. The EU is still overly dependent on Russian LNG, so importing more affordable LNG from the US is welcome. The tariff for the automotive industry in the agreement is set at 15%, and the same tariff rate will be implemented in the pharmaceutical industry. No decision has been made on the spirits sector, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the coming weeks [1] - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen will escalate their maritime blockade and launch the fourth - stage blockade, targeting all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports regardless of location and nationality [1] - Russia has imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports by oil companies until August 31 to stabilize the domestic market during peak demand and ensure sufficient fuel supply for farmers [1] - An attack on the judicial institution in Zahedan, Iran, has caused 6 deaths and 20 injuries. The terrorist organization "Justice Army" claimed responsibility, and three attackers have been killed [1] - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting ended, reaffirming the importance of full compliance with quotas, without policy recommendations. The next JMMC meeting will be held on October 1 [1] Investment Logic - Trump threatened to shorten the 50 - day cease - fire observation period between Russia and Ukraine. Russia must respond within 10 - 12 days, or countries purchasing Russian oil will face 100% tariff sanctions, which threatens oil imports of China, India, and Turkey. However, there is uncertainty about whether Trump will actually impose sanctions, and it may become a short - term market speculation topic [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a medium - term short position is recommended [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro - sentiment has weakened, leading to a downward oscillation in the chlor - alkali futures market. The PVC and caustic soda futures prices have both declined. The PVC market is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment in the short term, and the supply pressure is high while the demand is weak. The caustic soda market price fluctuates more, with high supply pressure and rigid demand from the alumina sector [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 5149 yuan/ton, down 224 yuan. The East China basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 134 yuan; the South China basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5060 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5060 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 134 yuan/ton, up 181 yuan; the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 506 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan; the PVC export profit was - 28.2 dollars/ton, down 8.6 dollars [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The PVC factory inventory was 35.7 tons, down 1.0 tons; the PVC social inventory was 42.7 tons, up 1.6 tons. The PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 79.21%, up 1.69%; the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 66.95%, down 1.36%; the overall PVC operation rate was 75.81%, up 0.84% [1]. - **Downstream Order Situation**: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 79.5 tons, up 9.9 tons [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2593 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis was 1 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [1]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The Shandong caustic soda single - product profit was 1603 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 659.5 yuan/ton, up 40.0 yuan; the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 687.53 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1734.34 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.84 tons, up 2.45 tons; the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.31 tons, down 0.09 tons. The caustic soda operation rate was 84.00%, up 1.40% [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate was 85.45%, up 1.84%; the East China printing and dyeing operation rate was 58.89%, unchanged; the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 84.97%, up 0.42% [2]. Strategies - **PVC**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the inter - delivery spread strategy, go short on the V09 - 01 spread when it is high [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the inter - delivery spread strategy, go short on the SH2509 - SH2601 spread [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean粕 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The bean粕 futures price showed a weak oscillation. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. There are obvious macro - factor disturbances, and the trade relationship is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of bean粕 remains loose due to high soybean arrivals and rising inventory. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2]. - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean粕 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, with a change of - 31 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) compared to the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed粕 spot price in Fujian was 2610 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Market News: Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Argentina's president announced a reduction in most agricultural product export tariffs, with the soybean export tariff dropping from 33% to 26%, and the bean粕 and soybean oil tariff from 31% to 24.5% [1] Market Analysis - The bean粕 futures price was weak. Favorable US weather, improving trade relations, high domestic soybean arrivals, and rising inventory contribute to a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.35%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.68%) [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Market News: As of July 19, the harvesting progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 55.5%. Brazil's 2024/25 corn production is expected to reach 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase. The EU's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 60.13 million tons, up 0.9% year - on - year; imports are expected to be 18.33 million tons, down 7.0% year - on - year; exports are expected to be 4.23 million tons, up 69.2% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. On the supply side, traders' shipments stabilized after negative - factor digestion. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises declined, and feed enterprises had sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions weakened, but market fluctuations may occur due to new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, leading to significant declines in coking coal and coke prices, while steel, iron ore, and thermal coal prices are showing oscillatory trends [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,248 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil main contract closed at 3,397 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 101,000 tons. Building materials production and sales are basically stable, with little change in inventory, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs continue to rise, building materials prices are increasing. Plate production has declined, and the fundamentals are better than the seasonal average, with exports significantly boosting plate consumption. Recently, a series of policies such as anti-involution, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing growth have been intensively proposed, boosting market sentiment and causing the futures market to rise continuously. However, with the sharp decline in coking coal on Friday night, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. Overall, the current fundamentals of the steel market are still good [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and most quotes were adjusted according to the market. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports across the country was 1.125 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.61%. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this period, with a total shipment volume of 32.009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 918,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 22.405 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.307 million tons. In July, there is a seasonal decline in iron ore shipments, but due to the recent increase in iron ore prices, the supply support is stronger than in previous years. In terms of demand, the current hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient. In terms of inventory, there is no obvious increase in port inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are good. In the short term, after the price increase, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production and the floating volume of iron ore at sea [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures were weak throughout the day, and the main contracts of both coking coal and coke hit the daily limit down. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has gradually recovered to a high level recently, and there is an expectation of supply restoration. For coking coal, affected by safety and environmental inspections, there are still disruptions in mine - end supply, but the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased, and future supply restoration needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing rigid support for coking coal. The price increase has attracted speculative demand and driven consumption. For coke, the third round of price increases has been implemented, compressing the profits of coking enterprises, but the demand remains stable supported by the high - level hot metal production. Currently, the market sentiment has subsided, black building materials prices have generally declined, and terminal demand has weakened due to seasonal factors [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, resulting in mixed price changes and a cooling of the price - support sentiment. At ports, there is a structural shortage of coal. After the downstream's phased rigid - demand procurement is completed, as the high - temperature range gradually expands, the daily consumption is gradually increasing. Traders are optimistic about the peak - season market, and market quotes are rising. In terms of imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, resulting in low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - performance advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Market Liquidity Overview - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index sector was 508.281 billion yuan, a change of +10.84% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1133.181 billion yuan, a change of +2.07% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 44.65% [1] - The trading volume of the treasury bond sector was 440.901 billion yuan, a change of -16.46% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 885.667 billion yuan, a change of -2.24% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 50.24% [1] - The trading volume of the base metal sector was 685.335 billion yuan, a change of -0.37% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 507.895 billion yuan, a change of -6.32% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 179.01% [1] - The trading volume of the precious metal sector was 472.097 billion yuan, a change of +46.81% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 444.023 billion yuan, a change of -4.11% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 148.20% [1] - The trading volume of the energy and chemical sector was 781.804 billion yuan, a change of +2.68% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 426.882 billion yuan, a change of -4.18% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 169.13% [1] - The trading volume of the agricultural product sector was 416.716 billion yuan, a change of +24.67% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 580.264 billion yuan, a change of -0.75% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 63.32% [1] - The trading volume of the black building materials sector was 877.660 billion yuan, a change of +30.18% from the previous trading day; the position amount was 384.076 billion yuan, a change of -8.21% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 220.46% [2] Report Structure I. Sector Liquidity - Includes figures on each sector's trading - position ratio, turnover change rate, position volume, position amount, trading volume, and turnover amount [4][7][8] II. Stock Index Sector - Covers figures on each variety's price change rate, trading - position ratio, change in precipitated funds, trend of precipitated funds, turnover change, and the proportion of net positions of the top 20 in each variety [4][9] III. Treasury Bond Sector - Contains figures on each variety's price change rate, trading - position ratio, change in precipitated funds, trend of precipitated funds, turnover change, and the proportion of net positions of the top 20 in each variety [4][21] IV. Base Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Sector) - Has figures on each variety's price change rate, trading - position ratio, change amount of precipitated funds, trend of precipitated funds, turnover change rate, and the proportion of net positions of the top 20 in each variety [4][30][37] V. Energy and Chemical Sector - Includes figures on each main variety's price change rate, trading - position ratio, change amount of precipitated funds, trend of precipitated funds, turnover change rate, and the proportion of net positions of the top 20 in each variety [4][38][39] VI. Agricultural Product Sector - Covers figures on each main variety's price change rate, trading - position ratio, change amount of precipitated funds, trend of precipitated funds, turnover change rate, and the proportion of net positions of the top 20 in each variety [4][48][49] VII. Black Building Materials Sector - Contains figures on each variety's price change rate, trading - position ratio, change amount of precipitated funds, trend of precipitated funds, turnover change rate, and the proportion of net positions of the top 20 in each variety [4][57][59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapid decline in coking coal prices on Monday led to a drop in methanol, a coal - chemical product, and price volatility has increased. Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, and there is still significant pressure from incoming shipments. The maintenance plan for MTO units has not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress. It is still a period of slight inventory accumulation. [2] - In the inland region, coal - based methanol plants have undergone centralized maintenance but will gradually resume operation in early August. In the traditional downstream sector, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - peak period, while MTBE and acetic acid production maintain a certain level of resilience. Inland demand remains strong, and inland methanol factory inventories have decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market is stronger than the port market. [2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [6][21][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China). [25][26][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants). [35][36][38] IV. Regional Price Spreads It shows the price spreads between different regions, such as the spread between northern Shandong and the northwest, the spread between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the spreads between Taicang and other regions. [40][48][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits The report includes figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [52][56][60] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. [3] - Inter - period: Go for reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high. [3] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when the spread is high. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG fundamental is currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. However, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. The overall supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and there is limited positive news [1] - The strategy for the LPG market is to expect a sideways movement, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals on the trading board [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 28, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4190 - 4510 yuan/ton; North China market, 4530 - 4640 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4050 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 546 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton) and butane at 523 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4296 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) and 4115 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively. In South China, propane was at 539 dollars/ton (down 8 dollars/ton) and butane at 516 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4241 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton) and 4060 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively [1] - The LPG fundamental is weak, with a dull market atmosphere. Although the PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines and there is short - term support from the crude oil side, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. Overseas supply remains abundant, domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, pay attention to the bottom - building signals on the trading board; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-29 多单集中平仓，碳酸锂盘面触及跌停 市场分析 2025-07-28，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于73200元/吨，收于73120元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌-7.98%。当日 成交量为1005395手，持仓量为378472手，前一交易日持仓量491088手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-3720元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单12276手，较上个交易日变化280手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72500-75300元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价70900-72500元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格845美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。 从 市场成交情况来看，前期碳酸锂期货价格突破8万元/吨关口，下游材料企业普遍持观望态度，接货意愿极度低迷。 而期货价格大幅回调后，下游采购需求明显释放，市场询价活跃度显著提升，成交放量推动现货价格重心稳步上 移。 策略 盘面封死跌停，主要受商品整体大跌以及多单挤兑影响。上周市场炒作矿端审批问题可能导致相关矿停产，碳酸 锂价格快速且大幅拉涨，持仓 ...

丙烯聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-29 市场情绪转弱，烯烃震荡走低 市场分析 丙烯方面，丙烯主力合约收盘价6570元/吨（-87），丙烯华东现货价6425元/吨（-50），丙烯华北现货价6240元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差-145元/吨（+37），丙烯华北基差-330元/吨（+87）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR190美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR122美元/吨（+11），进口利润-124元/吨（-13），厂内库存31750吨 （+1520）。 丙烯下游方面，PP粉开工率39%（+1.51%），生产利润205元/吨（-65）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+0%），生产利润-51 元/吨（-49）；正丁醇开工率88%（-3%），生产利润69元/吨（+21）；辛醇开工率78%（-3%），生产利润918元/吨（-17）； 丙烯酸开工率80%（+0%），生产利润903元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率77%（+1%），生产利润-603元/吨（+31）；酚 酮开工率78%（-3%），生产利润-667元/吨（+25）。 聚烯烃方面，L主力合约收盘价7335元/吨（-121），PP ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-29 商品波动加剧，关注中美经贸会谈 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月28日，A 股全天震荡上涨，三大股指集体收高，创业板涨近1%，医药股全天活跃。商品方面，国内商品期货大面积下跌， 焦煤、焦炭、玻璃、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂等纷纷跌停，也使得A股钢铁、煤炭板块走势。债市方面，国内期货普 遍走高，30年期主力合约涨0.56%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召开钢 铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、 ...