1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's H1 GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but the urgency for policies decreased. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible intensified pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. Policies for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new - energy vehicles are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have rebounded. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and the US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten" policies. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has begun, which may drag down commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals of commodities are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high. For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on industrial products on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, while the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the real - estate chain being dragged down by weak property sales still exists [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition. Policies for "anti - involution" in multiple industries are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced, and a survey of old petrochemical equipment is underway [2]. - Trump signed the bill, and the US has entered a new policy stage. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has started, and multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations. The current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, which may impact commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations; the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; OPEC+ is accelerating production increases; and the short - term volatility of agricultural products is relatively limited [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5] To - do News - China - EU leaders held the 25th meeting, aiming to deepen bilateral relations. The EU passed a measure to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [6]. - South Korea plans to invest at least $100 billion in the US. The preliminary value of the eurozone's July composite PMI was 51, higher than expected [6]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell [6]. - The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, including Indonesia and Japan. Thailand is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the new tariff rate may drop to about 20% [6]. - The 7 - month LPR quote remained stable. The EU and the US may reach a trade agreement this weekend. The pound and the euro had certain fluctuations [6]. - China has issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [6]. Macroeconomic - The US economic data shows that GDP growth, manufacturing and service PMIs, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and net exports have different trends and fluctuations [8]. - The European economic data shows that GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus have their own characteristics and changes [9]. - The Chinese economic data shows that GDP growth, net exports, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and fiscal revenue and expenditure have different performance and trends [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 987,100 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,179,800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,198,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 41,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,121,400 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 36,700 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 87,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 196,000 contracts [1]. - The specific breakdown of call and put trading volumes and total trading volumes for each option type is as follows: SSE 50 ETF options had 521,200 call contracts, 465,900 put contracts, and a total of 987,100 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had 585,400 call contracts, 594,500 put contracts, and a total of 1,179,800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had 682,800 call contracts, 516,100 put contracts, and a total of 1,198,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options had 22,000 call contracts, 19,800 put contracts, and a total of 41,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 618,600 call contracts, 502,800 put contracts, and a total of 1,121,400 contracts; SSE 50 index options had 12,400 call contracts, 28,100 put contracts, and a total of 36,700 contracts; CSI 300 index options had 58,300 call contracts, 28,700 put contracts, and a total of 87,000 contracts; CSI 1000 index options had 112,200 call contracts, 83,900 put contracts, and a total of 196,000 contracts [20]. 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, for each option type are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.37 (环比 change of -0.10) and a position PCR of 1.32 (环比 change of +0.11); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had a turnover PCR of 0.34 (环比 change of -0.04) and a position PCR of 1.26 (环比 change of +0.00); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had a turnover PCR of 0.48 (环比 change of -0.03) and a position PCR of 1.36 (环比 change of -0.04); Shenzhen 100 ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.21 (环比 change of -0.11) and a position PCR of 1.12 (环比 change of +0.05); ChiNext ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.39 (环比 change of -0.03) and a position PCR of 1.38 (环比 change of +0.06); SSE 50 index options had a turnover PCR of 0.25 (环比 change of -0.08) and a position PCR of 0.55 (环比 change of +0.00); CSI 300 index options had a turnover PCR of 0.36 (环比 change of -0.04) and a position PCR of 0.71 (环比 change of +0.01); CSI 1000 index options had a turnover PCR of 0.48 (环比 change of -0.04) and a position PCR of 0.92 (环比 change of +0.00) [2][29]. 3. Option VIX - The VIX and its环比 changes for each option type are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options had a VIX of 17.56% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had a VIX of 18.04% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had a VIX of 22.07% (环比 change of +0.00%); Shenzhen 100 ETF options had a VIX of 21.97% (环比 change of +0.00%); ChiNext ETF options had a VIX of 25.86% (环比 change of -0.03%); SSE 50 index options had a VIX of 19.27% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 300 index options had a VIX of 19.44% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 1000 index options had a VIX of 22.71% (环比 change of +0.00%) [3][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic "anti-involution" policy continues to advance, and the related themes remain hot, but short-term hot trading fluctuates repeatedly. The market completed a washout in a low-open and high-go trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully regained 3600 points. As the market's consensus on the "bull market" expectation gradually strengthens, margin trading funds and equity funds, as important incremental sources for this round of the market, are continuously injecting vitality into the market and promoting the spread of the profit-making effect [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, improving the standards for identifying dumping at low prices, regulating market price order, and governing "involution-style" competition [1] - **Overseas Economy**: In July, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.6, both hitting new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 217,000, the lowest level since mid-April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000 [1] - **Spot Market**: A-share's three major indexes opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.50%. Most sector indexes rose, with beauty care, non-ferrous metals, steel, and commercial retail industries leading the gains, while only the banking, communication, and public utilities industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.84 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.7% and the Nasdaq rising 0.18% to 21057.96 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures was repaired. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the open interest increased [2] 2. Strategy - The domestic "anti-involution" policy continues to advance, and the related themes remain hot. The market completed a washout in a low-open and high-go trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully regained 3600 points. As the market's consensus on the "bull market" expectation gradually strengthens, margin trading funds and equity funds are continuously injecting vitality into the market and promoting the spread of the profit-making effect [3] 3. Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts on the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][8][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 24, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.50%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.71%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.32%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.56%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.42% [13] - **Market Data**: The report also includes charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [12][13] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the open interest increased. Specifically, the trading volume of IF was 114,133 (a decrease of 16,976), the open interest was 271,368 (an increase of 2,311); the trading volume of IH was 53,842 (a decrease of 13,034), the open interest was 100,891 (an increase of 135); the trading volume of IC was 95,468 (a decrease of 9,753), the open interest was 229,789 (an increase of 1,553); the trading volume of IM was 205,106 (a decrease of 6,634), the open interest was 338,313 (an increase of 35) [16] - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures was repaired. The report provides the basis data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, including the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [38] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report provides the inter - delivery spread data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, including the next month - current month, next quarter - current month, etc., and their changes [45] - **Charts**: The report includes charts on the open interest of different contracts, the latest open interest ratio, foreign investors' net open interest, basis, and inter - delivery spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][16][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. In China, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market. However, the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to have an increased production in the new season, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar spot price is firm due to fast sales, but the high import profit and expected increase in imports put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] - For pulp, the short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the pulp price rebounds. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year due to high imports and domestic capacity expansion, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. From 7.11 - 7.17, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton was - 7416 tons, and the shipment was 41,912 tons, up 18% from the previous week. The net signing of this year's Pima cotton was 1247 tons, and the shipment was 1134 tons, down 37% from the previous week. New - year upland cotton signing was 30,073 tons, and new - year Pima cotton signing was 3946 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. Domestically, the fast inventory reduction, delayed quota issuance, and un - priced contracts drive the Zhengzhou cotton price up. But the strong new cotton harvest expectation, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation restrict the upward space. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise due to capital influence. In the long - term, the sufficient global supply and potential policies limit the upward space of the 01 contract [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Russia, some areas are affected by drought, with 39% and 59% of beet - planting areas in Krasnodar and Rostov affected respectively [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price rebound is restricted by the expected global production increase. The domestic sugar spot price is firm, but the high import profit and expected import increase put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. In the long - term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5456 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with some varieties having weak high - price transactions [8] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the low - priced pulp rebounds. In terms of supply, the wood pulp imports increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic capacity expansion is expected to reduce imports in the second half. But the slow de - stocking and high port inventory mean supply pressure remains. In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season [9] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. Short - selling on rallies after the macro - stimulus ends is recommended [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal off - season is obvious with falling downstream开工率 and production, and potential inventory accumulation. Long - term, supply limitation and stable consumption growth are the main logic, and the long - term outlook remains optimistic despite short - term price fluctuations [3]. - Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Spot prices are short - term strong, but long - term surplus is expected. Cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. There is support from the cost side, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Key Data Aluminum - Spot: On July 24, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20710 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20780 yuan/ton, closed at 20760 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or - 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 145349 lots and a position of 309943 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 510,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 448,100 tons, up 3300 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina - Spot: On July 24, 2025, SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3240 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3361 yuan/ton, closed at 3427 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 786570 lots and a position of 189037 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 23, 2025, Baotai's purchase prices of civil and mechanical primary aluminum were 15300 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; ADC12 Baotai's quote was 19700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, up 6000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5700 tons week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The seasonal off - season is evident, with falling downstream开工率, production, and processing fees facing losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but the long - term logic is supply limitation and stable consumption growth. Short - term price increase lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [3]. Alumina - Supply is in a slight surplus, with accelerating inventory accumulation. Spot prices are short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game. Long - term surplus is expected [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, and there is support from the cost side. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [7]. - Arbitrage: Long - short arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest despite a decrease in the sown area due to high yields. In China, the oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the spot price remains stable. However, the bean meal futures price rose last week under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] - For the corn market, the trade inventory in China's main production areas has decreased after a wave of concentrated grain sales, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on demand, and deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotations slightly. The impact of import corn auction on prices has weakened [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3025 yuan/ton yesterday, down 70 yuan/ton or 2.26% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton or 2.76% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2830 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association expects the soybean export volume in July 2025 to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and June's export volume but up 26% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. In China, the supply is loose, and the spot price is stable. The bean meal futures price was affected by macro - sentiment last week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] Strategy - The strategy for the bean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2318 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: From July 1st to 20th, Russia's corn export volume was 273,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year. The number of export destinations decreased from 10 to 3, with Iran and Turkey as the main buyers [3] Market Analysis - In China, the trade inventory in the main production areas has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and the impact of import corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - The strategy for the corn market is to be cautiously bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot price of PA Alliance freight rates has likely emerged, with the rate revised down to $3,100 per FEU [1][4] - The August contract experiences high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely appeared. The delivery settlement price of the August contract may be around 2,200 points [4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate [5] - The December contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [7] - The year 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries [8] - The strategy includes a sideways movement for the main contract, a long - 12 and short - 10 arbitrage strategy, and shorting the October contract on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 79,692.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 81,678.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1,562.30, 1,382.00, 1,506.90, 2,244.90, 1,583.90, and 1,779.90 respectively [7] II. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show different price levels and trends. For example, Maersk's Week 31 price is 1907/3214, and Week 32 is 1815/3050 [1] - On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2,079.00 per TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2,142.00 per FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3,612.00 per FEU. On July 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,400.50 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,301.81 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From July to September 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route shows different levels. August has 3 blank sailings from the OA Alliance, and there are 2 TBNs in August and 4 in September. Maersk will add two additional ships in Week 32 and Week 34 [3] - As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 47 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 705,300 TEU and 7 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU have been delivered [8] IV. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical influence. The US Middle East envoy stated that the US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas due to Hamas' lack of sincerity [2] - Information on ship congestion ratios, speeds of different - sized ships, and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama is presented in the figures, although specific data in the text analysis is not elaborated [57][67][75] V. Demand and European Economy - Figures show data related to port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, and China's export volume to the EU and total export volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [76][77][88]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 货源呈现区域性紧缺 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-24，沪铜主力合约开于 79880元/吨，收于 79890元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.38%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,520元/吨，收于 79,290 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.69%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，国内电解铜现货市场升水继续回落。SMM1#电解铜报价79,690-79,900元/吨，当月合约升水90-200元 /吨，均价145元/吨，较前日下跌35元。沪铜主力早盘自79,760元/吨震荡下行至79,600-79,700元/吨区间，Contango 结构维持在C100-C80元/吨。市场呈现三个特征：一是冶炼厂到货缓解上海地区现货紧张，主流平水铜成交价由160 元/吨回落至100-120元/吨；二是好铜溢价同步走低至180元/吨附近；三是湿法铜因缅甸货源紧张维持平水成交。考 虑到今日是周五，下游备货需求可能回升，预计现货升水跌幅将有所收窄。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，欧盟通过总额930亿欧元的对美关税反制计划，若未达成协议，措施将于8月7日生 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-25 盘面窄幅震荡，市场短期驱动有限 市场分析 低硫燃料油方面，近期基本面边际转松，巴西船货到港有所增加，科威特出口也开始恢复，亚太地区现货并无明 显矛盾。中期来看，低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，且航运业碳中和趋势将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代， 对市场前景形成压制。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：前期空FU裂解价差（FU-Brent或FU-SC）头寸可适当止盈 跨期：前期FU反套头寸可逐步止盈 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收平，报2879元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.59%，报3588元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对燃料油短期方向指引有限，FU、LU盘面窄幅震荡，中期则面临油市平衡表转松、成本 中枢下行的压力。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，目前基本面缺乏亮点，近期市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端 供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。近期俄罗 ...