Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, due to Sino - US tariff game, demand expectations are weakening, making futures prices weaker while the spot market remains firm due to slowed domestic arrivals. With reduced rainfall in domestic production areas, raw material prices are falling. Thai production areas may see increased cup - rubber supply later. Although downstream tire factory开工率 is rising and exports are resilient, overall domestic supply - demand is expected to become looser and inventory reduction may slow down. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and prices are expected to move within a range [7] - For butadiene rubber, in late October, more upstream butadiene rubber plant overhauls in China may reduce supply and support prices. Downstream tire factory开工率 is rising and exports are resilient. Supply - demand may improve, and raw material prices are expected to be stable. Surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - support. However, high current inventories may limit the rebound space, and prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall this week [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,840 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), up about 82% year - on - year and 15% month - on - month, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, up 14.41% month - on - month and 20.92% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, up 19.65% year - on - year [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, up 16.4% and 12.9% month - on - month, and 17.1% and 14.9% year - on - year. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales in the same period exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, up 4.2% year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, up 5.4% year - on - year. The export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, up 4.5% year - on - year; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, up 3.6% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 610 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 260 yuan/ton (+ 115), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,197 yuan/ton (+ 189.37), the NR basis was 801.00 yuan/ton (+ 42.00); the price of whole latex was 14,200 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 750 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.37 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.22), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.65 Thai baht/kg (- 0.25) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+ 22.43%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+ 28.92%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 20, 2025, the BR basis was 60 yuan/ton (+ 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,963 yuan/ton (+ 168) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+ 0.13%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (+ 1,300) [6]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-21 苯乙烯亏损性检修增多 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差74元/吨（+25）。纯苯港口库存9.90万吨（+0.90万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费147美元/吨（+1 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费131美元/吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差88.5美元/吨（+5.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现 货-M2价差35元/吨（-15元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1810元/吨（+55），酚酮生产利润-600元/吨（+25），苯胺生产利润826元/吨（+348）， 己二酸生产利润-1207元/吨（+72）。己内酰胺开工率92.41%（-3.59%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+0.00%），苯胺开工 率75.73%（-1.43%），己二酸开工率59.10%（-7.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差65元/吨（+53元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-623元/吨（-14元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存202500吨（+6000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存122500吨（+1000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率71.9%（-1.7 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-21 美国政府停摆有望结束 贵金属价格企稳回升 市场分析 美国政府方面，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，他认为政府停摆可能在本周某个时候结束；但如果这 种情况没有发生，白宫将考虑采取更强有力的措施，以促使民主党人参与谈判。此外，美国总统特朗普和澳大利 亚总理阿尔巴尼斯周一在白宫签署了一项关于稀土和关键矿物的协议；白宫在声明中称，美国政府和澳大利亚政 府计划在未来6个月共同向关键矿产项目投资超30亿美元，这些项目的可采资源价值估计为530亿美元；白宫指出， 五角大楼将在西澳大利亚州投资建设一个年产能100吨的镓加工厂。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-10-20，沪金主力合约开于989.70元/克，收于970.32元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-2.95%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于990.00元/克，收于998.58元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.91%。 2025-10-20，沪银主力合约开于12057.00元/千克，收于11742.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-4.14%。当日成交 量为2455760手，持仓量为43 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - changes. The current situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war, and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries around the end of the month should be continuously monitored. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" and economic work, which also needs attention [2]. - In terms of the cost side, there is a supply - surplus contradiction due to the slowdown in China's import demand after the National Day and the increase in US and Middle - East exports. The macro and fundamentals are in resonance, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver [3]. - PX is under pressure due to the recovery of China's PX load to a relatively high level, few fourth - quarter maintenance plans, and capacity expansion of some devices. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans, and the PX supply - demand support is limited [3]. - TA has a new device expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing inventory pressure after November. The cost - side support is weakening, and the demand is not strong during the peak season due to tariffs [3]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.1% month - on - month). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw material procurement is mainly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased this week under high tariffs [4]. - PF has improved demand, with factory inventory reduced to a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be strong [4][5]. - PR's fundamentals have little change, with maintenance continuing but general demand. The spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It involves figures like the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA, as well as China's and Asia's PX [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][54]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures of polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][82][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [89][91][99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices may face pressure due to increasing supply and potential disappointment in consumption during the peak season, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $136.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,820 yuan/ton, with a premium of -100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,870 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 20, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,404 lots, and the position was 65,610 lots. The highest price was 21,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,820 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,325 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - There is restocking in the spot market as zinc prices fall, but social inventories are increasing and may exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the upward trend of TC is expected to continue. Supply pressure is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to be weak, with PE and PP prices under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and weakening cost support [1][2][3] - For PE, the continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. For PP, the weakening is dragged down by falling crude oil and propane prices, along with a loose supply - demand pattern [2][3] - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and provides strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6879 yuan/ton (+5), PP main contract at 6565 yuan/ton (+14). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot at 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6580 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+25), LL East China basis 71 yuan/ton (-5), PP East China basis 15 yuan/ton (-4) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), PDH - based PP production profit was 110.2 yuan/ton (-21.6) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 150.2 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit was - 573.0 yuan/ton (-49.7), PP export profit was 31.3 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up limitedly, and cost support weakens. Monitor cost and macro - policy impacts [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is due to falling crude oil and propane prices and a loose supply - demand pattern. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up insufficiently, and cost support weakens. Monitor propane supply and PDH device operation [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile, focus on macro - dynamics [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-21 LPR保持不变，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy showed a steady upward trend in the first three quarters of 2025. In the production industry, fixed - asset investment declined slightly, but equipment and tool purchase investment had double - digit growth, and high - end manufacturing investment was prominent. In the service industry, the real estate market showed signs of improvement, and shipping and aviation industries had changes in schedules and prices [1][2]. - Different sectors in the industry had various trends. Upstream industries like glass and some agricultural products had price changes; mid - stream industries such as chemical and energy sectors had fluctuations in开工率 and consumption; downstream industries like real estate and services also had different performance [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Production Industry - From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and a 0.07% decline in September compared to the previous month. Equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 14.0% year - on - year. In terms of industrial structure, the primary industry investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year, the secondary industry investment increased by 6.3%, with industrial investment up 6.4% and manufacturing investment up 4.0%. High - end manufacturing sectors like automobile manufacturing and railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing had significant investment growth of 19.2% and 22.3% respectively [1]. Service Industry - In September 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new - home prices rose. Some cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed positive trends in the real estate market. The 2025 winter - spring flight schedule was implemented from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with 1.0% and 1.8% declines in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Global shipping giants raised freight rates on multiple routes by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container from October 15 [2]. Industry Overview - Upstream - In the black industry, glass prices dropped significantly. In the agricultural industry, egg prices rose slightly, while pork prices declined [3]. Industry Overview - Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate remained stable at a high level, while the polyester and PTA operating rates were low. In the energy industry, power plant coal consumption decreased [4]. Industry Overview - Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline. In the service industry, the number of domestic flights increased slightly [5]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - On October 20, various commodities had different price changes. For example, in the agricultural sector, the spot price of eggs increased by 4.59% year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 4.11%. In the energy sector, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.97%, while the spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 2.30% [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The propylene price has dropped to a new low for the year, with its supply increasing due to the restart and capacity increase of PDH units and the shutdown of some new devices. The demand is weak as downstream customers are cautious in stocking up and overall downstream开工率 has declined. The cost side, affected by factors such as weak oil demand and propane price trends, does not strongly support the propylene price. The propylene market is in a loose supply - demand pattern with limited upward drive, but the downside space is also limited at the current low - price stage [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves data including the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production profit and operating rate includes the difference between Chinese CFR propylene and Japanese CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [18][26][28]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import and export profit data includes the differences between South Korean FOB and Chinese CFR, Japanese CFR and Chinese CFR, Southeast Asian CFR and Chinese CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Downstream profit and operating rate data cover PP powder production profit and operating rate, propylene oxide production profit and operating rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [43][45][48]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68]. Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The main contract closing price is 6026 yuan/ton (+19), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (-90), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (-150), the East China basis is 49 yuan/ton (-109), the North China basis is - 16 yuan/ton (-169), the operating rate is 74% (-1%), the difference between Chinese CFR propylene and Japanese CFR naphtha is 238 US dollars/ton (+9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 143 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 436 yuan/ton (-25), and the in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1]. - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 39% (-1.31%), production profit is 40 yuan/ton (+70); propylene oxide operating rate is 68% (-4%), production profit is - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol operating rate is 90% (+2%), production profit is 12 yuan/ton (-7); octanol operating rate is 92% (-4%), production profit is - 71 yuan/ton (-171); acrylic acid operating rate is 75% (-8%), production profit is 1187 yuan/ton (+14); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 466 yuan/ton (+156); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 600 yuan/ton (+25) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of PDH units [3]. - Inter - period: Consider a reverse spread for PL01 - 02 at high prices [3]. - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is positive, and the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [4][5]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [7]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation - In the first quarter of 2025, the prices of black varieties were generally weak. In the second quarter, due to tariff frictions and a weakening macro - market sentiment, finished product prices were under pressure. In mid - to late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded, driving up the prices of black - series products. In July, the "anti - involution" sentiment boosted prices, but in mid - to late August, prices fluctuated downwards. In October, high inventory suppressed steel prices [14]. - In 2025, construction steel consumption declined, but manufacturing steel consumption and steel exports increased. The difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar prices was positive, expanding from July to August and then showing a narrowing trend recently [20][24]. Steel Cycle Turns Positive, and Corporate Profits are Acceptable - In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of mid - to late October, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 55%. From January to August 2025, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 83.7 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [32]. High Production Enthusiasm of Steel Mills, and Output Remains Relatively High - The good profits of steel enterprises have enhanced their production enthusiasm. As of mid - to late October, the daily average output of molten iron from 247 blast furnaces was around 2.41 million tons, about 80,000 tons higher than the same period in 2024. The daily consumption of scrap steel also remained at a high level [38][40]. At the End of the Peak Consumption Season, the Inventory Pressure of Finished Products Remains High - During the traditional off - season in July and August, high profitability drove up production. In September and October, most steel mills maintained high operating rates. The inventory of finished products did not show seasonal reduction, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was particularly prominent. As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the total inventory of five major steel products was 15.823 million tons, with an unsatisfactory inventory reduction rate. If demand does not increase significantly, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices [51][57]. Summary - The macro - sentiment is positive, and steel enterprises have acceptable profitability. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [64][65]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [66].