油脂日报 | 2025-07-24 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8994.00元/吨，环比变化+68元，幅度+0.76%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8074.00 元/吨，环比变化-2.00元，幅度-0.02%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9456.00元/吨，环比变化-21.00元，幅度-0.22%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9100.00元/吨，环比变化+140.00元，幅度+1.56%，现货基差P09+106.00，环比变 化+72.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8220.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+146.00， 环比变化+12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9560.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.21%，现货基差 OI09+104.00，环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据加拿大农业及农业食品部（AAFC），本周发布的7月供需报告对关键数据进行了调整。AAFC 采纳了加拿大统计局最新公布的2024/25年度油菜籽产量数据，将产量预估大幅上调至约1919万吨，此前预测仅为 1785万吨。同时，旧作油菜籽出口预期也被调高至 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong. The supply side is expected to increase, and the consumption side, although showing some resilience, cannot match the high growth on the supply side. Overseas inventories have a risk of delivery, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may dominate the price trend again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$2.77/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at -70 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 23, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,850 yuan/ton and closed at 22,975 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 173,574 lots, a decrease of 11,004 lots, and the open interest was 137,891 lots, an increase of 3,831 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,815 - 23,020 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 115,325 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong [3] - **Cost Side**: With the zinc ore import window closed, the import volume in June increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the imported ore TC continued to rise, the smelting profit was maintained, and the supply side was expected to increase. Smelters had sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for purchasing ore [3] - **Consumption Side**: Although the downstream operating rate showed relative resilience and overall consumption was not bad, it could not match the high growth on the supply side [3] - **Inventory Situation**: There is an expectation of delivery risk for overseas inventories, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-24 关注欧美7月PMI初值，警惕商品价格波动风险 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。财政部等三 部门发布海南自由贸易港全岛封关货物税收政策。 "反内卷"交易的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召 开钢铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温， 部分商品价格回暖。从政策文件和行业自律的内容来看，当前综合整治"内卷式"竞争可以关注钢铁、炼油、合成 氨、水泥、电解铝、数据中心、煤电、光伏、锂电池 ...

指数冲高回落。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，上证指数涨0.01%收于3582.30点，创业板指跌0.01%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，非银金融、美容护理、家用电器行业领涨，建筑材料、国防军工、机械设备、电力设备 行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额保持在1.9万亿元。海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.14%报 45010.29点。 期指增仓。期货市场，股指期货基差有所分化，仅IM贴水继续修复。成交持仓方面，期指成交量和持仓量同步增 加。 FICC日报 | 2025-07-24 市场情绪降温，指数冲高回落 市场分析 美日关税谈判达成协议。国内方面，商务部新闻发言人介绍，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日 至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。中美双方将按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作 用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经贸问题开展磋商。海外方面，美方对日本 实施的"对等关税"税率将从25%下调至15%，日本将在现行的"最低准入制度"下增加美国大米的进口量，该协议还 包括日本向美国投资5500亿美元的承诺。美国白宫表示，美日投资协议将重点关 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 市场呈现供需两淡格局 欠佳陷入震荡走势 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-07-23，LME铅现货升水为-25.40美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16725元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-40.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16775元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16725元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至16750元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225 元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10500元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-23，沪铅主力合约开于16930元/吨，收于16850元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨，全天交易日 成交70210手，较前一交易日变化35228手，全天交易日持仓62272手，手较前一交易日变化20641手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16985元/吨，最低点达到16820元/吨。夜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants in pure benzene and styrene production accounts for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ market has declined after reaching a peak, with the high futures premium starting to narrow. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory, and while the short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, the high - start CPL and styrene plants' operations are starting to decline. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic production is still at a high level, so the pure benzene processing fee continues to consolidate weakly. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB production has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS production has increased, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future production [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The pure benzene main contract basis is - 206 yuan/ton (+52), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The spread between the near - month BZ paper cargo and the distant BZ2603 futures is recommended to be reverse - arbitraged when the price is high [1][4] - Styrene: The styrene main contract basis is 53 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton). An EB2509 - 2510 inter - period reverse arbitrage is recommended [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 185 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 169 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 117.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid have all changed to varying degrees [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 57 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually shrink. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed when the price is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 17.10 tons (+0.70 tons). There is still pressure on inventory during the same period. Although downstream demand is okay in the short term, the operating rates of CPL and styrene are starting to decline [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+12,200 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+11,200 tons), which is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The domestic EB operating rate has declined slightly but is still at a relatively high level [1][3] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.18% (+2.12%) - PS: The production profit is - 76 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%) - ABS: The production profit is 225 yuan/ton (- 69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future operating rates [2][3] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1890 yuan/ton (+30), and the operating rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%) - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 81.00% (+3.00%) - Aniline: The production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74), and the operating rate is 75.86% (+4.96%) - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1491 yuan/ton (+52), and the operating rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been in a range - bound market recently, with no obvious short - term contradictions and event drivers. However, due to the extremely high crude oil inventory in China, the risk of price decline is accumulating. The market has different understandings of China's continuous increase in crude oil inventory. The core issue is that although the current monthly spread structure does not support arbitrage through oil storage, it cannot be disproven whether the inventory build - up is from SPR. The absorption capacity of SPR has a limit, and crude oil imports will eventually need to match the growth rate of crude oil processing volume and refined oil demand [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6 cents to $65.25 per barrel, a decrease of 0.09%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 8 cents to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 0.12%. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 0.42% to 506 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.525 million barrels, an increase of 971,000 barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 597,000 barrels to 7.985 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory decreased by 393,000 barrels to 2.2 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 767,000 barrels to 10.34 million barrels [1] - Representatives from Iran, Russia, and China held talks in Tehran on Tuesday to discuss the Iranian nuclear program. China advocates resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through political and diplomatic means and will continue to play a constructive role [1] - For the week ending July 18 in the United States, the EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.565 million barrels and a previous value of - 3.859 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 455,000 barrels, with a previous value of 213,000 barrels. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was - 200,000 barrels, with a previous value of - 300,000 barrels [1] Investment Logic - The oil price is in a range - bound market recently. The risk of price decline is accumulating due to high Chinese crude oil inventory. There are different views on China's inventory build - up, and the key is that SPR's absorption capacity is limited, and imports should match processing volume and demand [2] Strategy - The oil price will have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks include the relaxation of Iranian oil sanctions and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-24 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：前期空FU裂解价差（FU-Brent或FU-SC）头寸可适当止盈 跨期：前期FU反套头寸可逐步止盈 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 俄罗斯7月高硫燃料油发货量回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.69%，报2879元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.28%，报3565 元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对FU、LU短期方向指引有限，中期则面临平衡表转松的下行压力。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，目前基本面缺乏亮点，近期市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端 供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。近期伊朗和俄罗斯高硫燃料油发货量都出现一定增加态势。其中，俄罗斯7月发货 量预计在237万吨，环比6月增加47万吨，同比去年提升22万吨。但往前看，我们认为高硫燃料油结构性利好因素 并未完全消退，如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-24 市场分析 1、\t7月23日地区价格：山东市场，4520-4670；东北市场，4190-4380；华北市场，4530-4680；华东市场，4330-4600； 沿江市场，4500-4660；西北市场，4050-4200；华南市场，4548-4700。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷542美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷524美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4261元/吨，涨13元/吨，丁烷4120元/吨，涨13元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷536美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷521美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4214元/吨，涨13元/吨，丁烷4096元/吨，涨13元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG基本面当前表现疲软，市场氛围平淡，PG主力合约连续走低，再度跌破4000元/吨，需等待盘面企稳止跌信号。 现货方面，昨日国内液化气市场窄幅整理，华南地区缩小价差，低位上涨带动重心小幅上移，华中地区受外围弱 势牵制，价格回调，整体波动幅度有限。就LPG ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面走势转弱，沥青现货延续跌势 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 市场分析 1、7月23日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3594元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.47%；持仓198184手，环比下降5747手，成交201956手，环比下跌36618手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 近日原油价格连续回调，BU盘面走势也明显转弱。除了基准油价的回调外，稀释沥青原料供应增加的预期也对沥 青成本端形成一定压制。昨日华北以及山东市场沥青现货价格均有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主， 整体情绪一般。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存处于低位，市场短期压力有限但上行驱动 不足，需要等待新的变量兑现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1 ...