石油沥青日报 | 2025-10-21 国内大规模降温，需求改善乏力 市场分析 1、10月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3141元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨4元/吨，涨幅 0.01%；持仓167705手，环比上涨14182手，成交160007手，环比下降3854手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—4086元/吨；山东，3300—3670元/吨；华南，3350—3550元/吨； 华东，3450—3550元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格相对稳定。原油以及沥青期货维持 弱势运行，利空沥青现货市场情绪。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需两弱格局延续，油价大跌后炼厂利润相对可观， 供应端弹性或更大。需求方面，北方地区受冷空气影响，气温明显下降，沥青刚性需求整体表现疲软，市场利好 驱动不足，短期建议观望为主。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Core Viewpoints - For the soybean meal market, the current supply is sufficient, with low - level oscillations. The high export volume from Brazil has put pressure on CBOT soybean prices and increased domestic supply, and the supply is expected to remain loose. Future market focus lies on policy changes and the import situation of new - season US soybeans [1][3] - In the corn market, the new - season corn in domestic northeast and north China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the new - grain price is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2895 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.94%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2350 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (+1.91%) [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas Information: As of October 17, Brazilian farmers have planted 23.27% of the expected soybean area for 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated at 18 million hectares, an 8.4% increase from the previous year, and the production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, a 6% increase from 2023/24 [2] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.99%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.25%) [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Overseas Information: As of October 13, French farmers had harvested 56% of this year's grain corn crop, up from 37% a week ago, and the excellent - good rate was 60%, down from 62% a week ago [4] Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data, Brazil's good export situation has put pressure on CBOT soybean prices. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the supply is expected to remain loose. Future focus is on policy changes and the import of new - season US soybeans [3] Corn - In the domestic market, the new - season corn in the northeast and north China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the new - grain price is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [6] Strategy - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7]

特朗普拒绝对乌克兰提供战斧导弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌2美分，收于每桶57.52美元，跌幅为0.03%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌28美分，收于每桶61.01美元，跌幅为0.46%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.16%，报438元/桶。 2、 欧洲理事会周一宣布，欧盟成员国能源部长当天通过了在2028年1月1日前逐步停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气 的提案。欧盟能源部长在卢森堡举行的会议上批准了该计划，根据该计划，欧盟将从2026年1月起逐步停止根据新 合同进口俄罗斯天然气，现有短期合同自2026年6月起终止，长期合同则于2028年1月终止。欧盟希望通过逐步停 止进口俄罗斯油气，切断克里姆林宫为俄乌冲突提供资金的收入来源。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 上海国际能源交易中心公告，同意大连北方油品储运有限公司调增位于大连市保税区新港大连港新港沙坨子 的原油期货交割仓库启用库容的申请，启用库容由10万立方米增加至20万立方米；自公告之日起，大连北方油品 储运有限公司应按增加后的启用库容开展期货交割仓库各项业务，严格执行有关规定，加强管理，确保交割仓库 业务正 ...

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 氧化铝难见好转，铝出口依旧偏乐观 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20930元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20810元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-110元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20820元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-100元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-20日沪铝主力合约开于20935元/吨，收于20910元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，最 高价达20970元/吨，最低价达到20890元/吨。全天交易日成交107222手，全天交易日持仓231673手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.2吨，仓单库存69947 吨，较上一交易日变化-723吨，LME铝库存487125吨，较上一交易日变化-4100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2875元/吨，山东价格录得2835元/吨，河南价格录得 2895元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 现货方面：2025-10-20，LME铅现货升水为-41.85美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17050元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-20，沪铅主力合约开于17075元/吨，收于17060元/吨，较前一交易日变化-15元/吨，全天交易日 成交27656手，较前一交易日变化-11986手，全天交易日持仓38195手，手较前一交易日变化-2023手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17155元/吨，最低点达到17055元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of soybeans is tight, and the futures price of soybeans reached a new high in the current period. The new soybeans in the Huanghuaihai region are expected to be slowly launched, and the harvest and launch of new soybeans in the southern region are generally delayed. For peanuts, the futures price fluctuated downward, with stable supply in the Northeast. The market should focus on the actual supply progress and quality of summer-sown peanuts in Henan and Shandong, and also pay attention to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4086.00 yuan/ton, up 58.00 yuan/ton or 1.44% from the previous day. Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A11 - 46, down 58 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information Summary - The new-season soybean harvest in the Northeast is almost finished. Grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing, and high-protein soybeans are in high demand. The prices of low-protein common soybeans range from 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein soybeans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein soybeans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower grains vary according to protein content. The prices of standard first-class medium-grained tower grains in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared to the previous day [2] Market Situation - The futures price of soybeans reached a new high. Affected by the southern production reduction, the market sentiment in the Northeast was high, and high-protein soybeans had a strong upward trend. The Huanghuaihai region was in a state of supply shortage, and new soybeans were expected to be launched slowly. Continuous rainfall in the South delayed the autumn harvest, and the large-scale launch of new soybeans was postponed. In some areas, the wet surface farmland ratio exceeded 50%, and the limited number of drying towers exacerbated the tight spot circulation [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2511 contract yesterday was 7958.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis was PK11 + 242.00, down 30.00 or 11.03% from the previous day [4] Market Information Summary - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was basically stable at 4.18 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions varied, and the supply was scarce in some areas. The contract procurement prices of oil mills for common peanuts were 8200 - 8300 yuan/ton, and for oil peanuts were 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in arrivals [4] Market Situation - The peanut futures price fluctuated downward. The supply in the Northeast was stable with obvious quality advantages, and the market mainly purchased Northeast peanuts. With the improvement of weather in Henan and Shandong, the supply of summer-sown peanuts was expected to increase. Currently, the demand support was limited, and attention should be paid to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

2025-10-20，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于76260元/吨，收于75700元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.08%。当日 成交量为169108手，持仓量为138434手，前一交易日持仓量159000手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-1960元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单30705手，较上个交易日变化19手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73500-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化650元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价71150-72350元/吨，较前一交易日变化650元/吨。6%锂精矿价格860美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。据SMM 数据，当前下游材料厂开工率持续走高，需求支撑现货成交。供应方面，锂辉石端和盐湖端均有新产线投产，预 计10月碳酸锂总产量仍具备增长潜力。需求方面，动力市场新能源汽车商用乘用同时快速增长；储能市场供需两 旺。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 锂矿进口增加，消费支撑现货价格 市场分析 期权：无 当天期货盘面偏弱小幅震荡运行，进口端锂矿增加较多，锂盐进口环比小幅降低，总体进口相对较好，仓单快速 去化放缓，仓单开始小幅增加。目前 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-21 二育入场支撑，猪价短期偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12155元/吨，较前交易日变动+485.00元/吨，幅度+4.16%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.58元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.31元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-575，较前交易日变动-185；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.56元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH01-595，较前交易日变动-365；四 川地区外三元生猪价格10.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1275，较前交易日变动-435。 据农业农村部监测，10月20日"农产品批发价格200指数"为120.13，比上周五上升0.37个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为121.28，比上周五上升0.44个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.72元/公斤，比上周五下降1.7%； 牛肉66.14元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉61.76元/公斤，与上周五持平；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，比上周五下降0.5%； 白条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0. ...

主港延续累库，EG承压运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4003元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 4094元/吨（较前一交易日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.05%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）72元/吨（环比-2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-64美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-599元/吨（环比 -54元/吨）。 化工日报 | 2025-10-21 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为57.9万吨（环比+3.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.3万吨（环比+5.0万吨）。据CCF数据，上周主港实际到货总数10.5万吨，港口库 存继续累库；本周华东主港计划到港总数5.3万吨，副港计划到港量6.3万吨，库存预计持稳。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态，预期变化不大。需求端，高关税下旺季不旺，聚酯负荷提升高度有限，但刚 需仍存。整体EG平衡表四 ...