策略 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 宏观及供应端扰动较多，碳酸锂盘面仍偏强 市场分析 2025-07-22，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于71900元/吨，收于72880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.71%。当日成 交量为1118226手，持仓量为411638手，前一交易日持仓量381185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-2180元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单10089手，较上个交易日变化120手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价68100-70100元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价66950-67950元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格768美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。据SMM 数据，受碳酸锂供应端减量信息扰动影响，期货价格持续大幅上涨。下游正极材料厂对此价位接受意愿较低，但 在持续上涨的市场趋势下，叠加库存持续消化，采购意愿已出现边际改善。 当前宏观情绪偏强，供应端扰动消息较多，锂矿审批问题及盐厂减产消息不断，导致碳酸锂盘面偏强，短期观望 为主。 风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本 ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is a liquidity daily report dated July 23, 2025, with analysis researchers including Gao Tianyue, Li Yizi, and Li Guangting [61][62] Group 2: Market Liquidity Overview - On July 22, 2025, the stock index sector had a trading volume of 554.65 billion yuan, a +14.04% change from the previous trading day, a position value of 1111.703 billion yuan, a +3.71% change, and a trading - position ratio of 50.06% [1] - The treasury bond sector had a trading volume of 385.433 billion yuan, a -6.65% change, a position value of 908.429 billion yuan, a -0.53% change, and a trading - position ratio of 43.09% [1] - The basic metal sector had a trading volume of 635.758 billion yuan, a +0.25% change, a position value of 529.731 billion yuan, a +3.28% change, and a trading - position ratio of 163.24% [1] - The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 402.302 billion yuan, a +15.44% change, a position value of 478.56 billion yuan, a +2.51% change, and a trading - position ratio of 107.01% [1] - The energy and chemical sector had a trading volume of 729.15 billion yuan, a +3.07% change, a position value of 433.246 billion yuan, a -1.30% change, and a trading - position ratio of 149.30% [1] - The agricultural product sector had a trading volume of 338.285 billion yuan, a -0.40% change, a position value of 589.417 billion yuan, a -0.61% change, and a trading - position ratio of 51.56% [1] - The black building materials sector had a trading volume of 564.717 billion yuan, a +15.70% change, a position value of 391.751 billion yuan, a -0.14% change, and a trading - position ratio of 147.96% [2] Group 3: Directory - related Figures 1. Plate Liquidity - Figures include those showing each plate's trading - position ratio, turnover change rate, position volume, position value, trading volume, and turnover [4][5][6][8] 2. Stock Index Sector - Figures cover each variety's increase - decrease rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, turnover change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend [5][6][10][11][12][15][17][18] 3. Treasury Bond Sector - Figures display each variety's increase - decrease rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, turnover change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend [5][6][19][22][24][25] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Sector) - Figures show each variety's increase - decrease rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, turnover change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend [5][6][26][27][33][32] 5. Energy and Chemical Sector - Figures present each main variety's increase - decrease rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, turnover change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend [5][6][35][36][37][38][40] 6. Agricultural Product Sector - Figures include each main variety's increase - decrease rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, turnover change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend [5][6][43][44][46][47][49] 7. Black Building Materials Sector - Figures show each variety's increase - decrease rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, turnover change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend [5][6][50][52][54][56][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's GDP in H1 growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and the "rush to export" phenomenon supported the economic data, but also reduced the urgency of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, there has been an increasing expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reduction policies are needed to promote the "anti - involution" trading [2]. - After the passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations. The current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, and its impact on sentiment and demand expectations should be watched out for [3]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and one should be cautious about the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's export performance in June was remarkable, with a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of Sino - US tariffs. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8% due to the suspension of policy subsidies in some areas, but subsequent subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the weak real - estate sales dragging down the real - estate chain still exists. On July 22, A - shares strengthened throughout the day, and the commodity futures market saw a wave of limit - up for many varieties such as coking coal and coke, stimulating the full - scale outbreak of cyclical stocks [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. The expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and lithium battery has increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded. The upcoming ten key industry pro - growth work plans for industries like steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. "对等 Tariff" Impact - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US has shifted its policy from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage where policies are "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten." The US Treasury Secretary said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, with expected tariff revenues of up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. Trump has extended the grace period for the "equal tariff" and started the "equal tariff 2.0" stage. The US has sent tariff letters to 25 countries in 4 batches, and negotiations with various countries are in progress [3]. Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, with a relatively loose medium - term supply outlook. OPEC + has accelerated production increases, and the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held this week [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one should consider long - term positions in industrial products on dips [5]

宏观情绪提振，聚酯产业链偏强运行 市场要闻与数据 1、上周五，工信部消息称钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台。工业和信息化部将推动重 点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。20年前投产的装置可能被定义为老旧产能，在此消息下市场得以提 振。 整体来看，聚酯品种中20年以上产能占比从高到低分别为：PF 47.3%、MEG 6.6%、PX 5.1%、PR 4.4%、PTA 0%。 仅有短纤PF占比较高，其他占比均在10%以下，并且大多已处于停车或低负荷运行状态。PF由于缺乏统计资料， 其应该也有部分装置已停产，实际运行中的装置占比应低于统计值。 2、另外国家能源局发布核查通知，超能力生产煤矿一律责令停产整改，成本端煤炭价格上涨。 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，近日原油市场消息面较为平淡，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 化工日报 | 2025-07-23 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN269美元/吨(环比变动+6.50美元/吨）。近期亚洲PX负荷基本持稳，国内盛虹炼化因CDU 故障导致下游重整以及PX负荷下滑，但镇海以及中金负荷上升弥补部分供应损失。PTA基差以及加工差也企稳小 幅反弹，PXN ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-07-23 风险情绪滋生下 白银价格表现强劲 策略摘要 近日，美国财长贝森特称，8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易谈判与俄乌制裁谈 判分开进行，而与日本的谈判进展非常顺利。不过近期市场表现似乎并为受到太大影响，甚至存在风险情绪滋生 的情况，标普500指数再度创出新高。白银价格在此期间表现也相对抢眼。此外贝森特还表示，美联储现在应该降 息。没有任何迹象表明鲍威尔现在应该辞职。但如果他想提前离职，则应该这样做。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-22，沪金主力合约开于784.70元/克，收于784.84元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.40%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于788.50元/克，收于792.94元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.91%。 2025-07-22，沪银主力合约开于9301.00元/千克，收于9393.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.32%。当日成交量 为961563手，持仓量为476010手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于9,442元/千克，收于9,453元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.75 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 市场整体情绪偏乐观 铜价震荡上行 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-22，沪铜主力合约开于 79720元/吨，收于 79740元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.05%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,830元/吨，收于 79,970 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货市场呈现结构性紧张，主流品牌对2508合约升水报160-320元/吨，均价240元/ 吨，较昨日上涨20元/吨。现货价格区间79630-79880元/吨，沪铜早盘自79760元/吨回落至79560元/吨，隔月价差维 持Contango结构。市场呈现明显分化：主流交单品牌升水高企，但常州等地实际成交品牌升水仅60-80元/吨。尽管 冶炼厂已向上海地区发货，但优质平水铜和好铜供应仍然偏紧，品牌价差将持续，建议下游企业按需采购。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，近日，美国财长贝森特称，8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易 谈判与俄乌制裁谈判分开进行，而与日本的谈判进展非常顺利。不过近期市场表现似乎并为受到太大影响，甚至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Core View of the Report - The performance of soybeans and peanuts is diverging, with the focus on the weather in the production areas. The soybean futures rose while the peanut futures weakened. The market is influenced by factors such as auctions, planting conditions, and weather forecasts [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4232.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous day. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 68, down 33 or 32.14% from the previous day. - Market news: Northeast soybean prices were stable today. On July 21, 42032 tons of soybeans planned by CGC were all sold with premiums. Future rainfall in Northeast China is expected to increase, benefiting soybean growth. Anhui has mild drought [1][2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8140.00 yuan/ton, down 66.00 yuan/ton or 0.80% from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + -40.00, up 66.00 or -62.26% from the previous day. - Market news: The domestic peanut market was stable. The raw material acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the cold storage goods are mainly traded. The short - term upward momentum of peanuts has weakened, and the price is suppressed by the expected increase in production and the decline in planting costs [3][4] Strategy - Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Under the lingering macro - sentiment, the price of SHFE zinc continues to oscillate strongly, but lacks fundamental support. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. The supply - side increment expectation remains unchanged, and the consumption side is difficult to match the high growth of the supply side. The overseas inventory has a risk of delivery, and the domestic social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the oversupply pattern may dominate the price trend again [3] 3. Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - $1.72/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 22, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,880 yuan/ton and closed at 22,945 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 184,578 lots, a decrease of 66,827 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 134,060 lots, an increase of 746 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,985 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,760 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 22, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 116,600 tons, a decrease of 1,625 tons from the previous trading day [2] 4. Market Analysis - Cost side: With the zinc ore import window closed, the import volume in June increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the imported ore TC continued to rise, the smelting profit was maintained, and the supply - side increment expectation remained unchanged. The smelters had sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for ore procurement. - Consumption side: Although the downstream operating rate showed relative resilience and the overall consumption was not bad, it was difficult to match the high growth of the supply side. The overseas inventory had a risk of delivery, and the domestic social inventory showed a trend of accumulation, which was expected to continue in the second half of the year [3]

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-23 债券供给过剩引发担忧，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径；7月LPR报价持稳，1年期LPR报3%，上次为3%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上次为3.5%；关 税方面，中美正加速执行伦敦框架成果 2）通胀：6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-07-22，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了2148亿元7天的逆回购操作。（4）货 币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.317%、1.462%、1.551% 和1.529%，回购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-07-22，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.41元、105.89元、108.64元、119.45元。涨跌 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-23 市场分析 美印达成贸易协议。国内方面，央行数据显示，二季度末，人民币房地产贷款余额53.33万亿元，同比增长0.4%， 增速比上年末高0.6个百分点，上半年增加4166亿元。个人住房贷款余额37.74万亿元，同比下降0.1%，增速比上年 末高1.2个百分点，上半年增加510亿元。海外方面，特朗普表示，美国分别与菲律宾和印尼达成了贸易协定，将菲 律宾商品关税从20%下调至19%，菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。印尼将对美国取消99%的关税壁垒， 而印尼出口到美国的所有产品则需缴纳19%的关税，此外，印尼将向美国供应其珍贵的关键矿产，并签署价值数百 亿美元的重大协议，采购波音飞机、美国农产品和美国能源。 股指上行。现货市场，A股三大指数延续震荡上行态势，上证指数涨0.62%收于3581.86点，创业板指涨0.61%。行 业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，煤炭、建筑材料、建筑装饰、钢铁、有色金属行业领涨，银行、计算机、通信行业 跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额扩大至1.9万亿元。目前主管部门已与中国证监会相关司局就资本市场支持深圳 综合改革建立常态化沟通机制，预计年内将有包括"在 ...