期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2026 年：消费端目前均较乐观，但实际兑现情况仍有待观察，整体供需格局预计有所好转，过剩量收窄。若消费端超预期，供应 端出现不可抗力，可能出现阶段性偏紧。预计 2026 年碳酸锂价格将会在 7-13 万元/吨运行，由于行业整体过剩收窄，价格重心会或出 现抬升，对于碳酸锂来说，整体波动幅度依旧较大，对于产业客户与投资机构，可把握周期性行情。 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩程度收窄 锂价重心或上移 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 2025 年苹果期货表现亮眼，整体呈现震荡上行的走势。上半年主要由于旧季库存处低位，产地成交氛围活跃，去库进度同比去年加快， 库存果价格偏硬运行；而下半年主要围绕新季苹果减产预期及质量问题进行交易，延续强势上涨…… 苹果库存结构或成隐患，红枣关注旺季消 费情况 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 果蔬年报 2025-11-30 苹果库存结构或成隐患， 红枣关注旺季消费情况 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z001 ...

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 展望 2026 年工业硅行情，整体估值相对较低，但产能过剩严重，消费端无亮点，若原料价格上涨或出现政策扰动，工业硅或有阶段 性行情。预计 2026 年工业硅盘面价格在 8000-11500 元/吨，需重点跟踪政策相关影响。 展望 2026 年：供应端产能过剩仍较严重，预计消费端难有较大亮点，但行业通过自律减产，以及限价等措施对供应端进行调控，预 计产量将控制在一定范围内，整体过剩幅度有限。预计 2026 年多晶硅盘面波动区间在 4.5-6.5 万元/吨。 基本面无亮点 仍需关注政策扰动引发行情 新能源&有色组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号：0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 期货研究报告 ｜工业硅多晶硅年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **International**: The November USDA monthly report was restarted, with adjustments significantly bearish for the market. The USDA substantially increased the global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, including major producers like the US, China, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was only slightly adjusted upwards, leading to a notable rise in global ending stocks compared to September and a return to inventory accumulation. US cotton production was significantly increased due to a marked improvement in yield, while exports were only raised by 40,000 tons, significantly increasing the sales pressure on US cotton. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment to the export target, but it depends on the negotiation situation between the US and other regions. Currently, with the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, there is significant short - term supply pressure, and global textile end - consumption remains weak. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, with limited further downward potential, but the upward drive is unclear and may be volatile. The focus should be on the subsequent sales of US cotton [5]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. As the cotton harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, the expected cotton production has recently rebounded after several adjustments, with the expected production in Xinjiang this year maintained at 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. Since the fourth quarter is still the period of concentrated listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are seasonally rising, and there is sufficient short - term supply. Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging positions. On the demand side, downstream demand has been weak since entering the off - season of the textile industry, but spinning profits have generally improved, and the pressure on finished product inventories is acceptable, without forming an obvious negative feedback, so the downward space of the market is also limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the expansion of downstream production capacity has increased domestic cotton consumption, and consumption in the new season is expected to remain resilient. With the expected low level of imports, the domestic supply - demand situation in the new season is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [6]. Strategy In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the center of cotton prices is expected to move up. It is recommended to build long positions in distant contracts on dips [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 Cotton Market Review - **ICE US Cotton**: Throughout 2025, ICE US cotton showed a volatile downward trend under the influence of loose global supply and external macro - pressure. Although there were periodic rebounds, the overall strength was weak. In the first half of the year, international industry news was relatively quiet. In early April, the market accelerated its decline due to the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy but quickly recovered later. In the second half of the year, due to the good yield expectations of major cotton - producing countries, the market continuously traded on the expectation of global bumper harvests, and combined with the poor performance of US cotton export contracts, the US cotton futures price continued to weaken [1][11]. - **Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton market had five main stages throughout the year. From January to March, it fluctuated, with the post - holiday downstream trading improving after the negative tariff policy was exhausted, but the tariff issue resurfaced at the end of February, causing the price to decline. From April to June, it bottomed out and rebounded. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, Zhengzhou cotton gapped down and plunged due to Trump's announcement of high - tariff policies, but rebounded as Sino - US trade relations eased. From July to August, it first rose and then fell back, followed by a relatively strong fluctuation. In July, the domestic commercial inventory was rapidly depleted, and the supply shortage expectation at the end of the year increased, and the price climbed continuously but then fell back from the high. In August, the tariff extension and tight spot supply supported the relatively strong fluctuation. In September, it accelerated its decline as new cotton was about to be listed and the yield increase expectation was strengthening, and the demand was weak. From October to the present, it fluctuated within a range. After the National Day, as the harvest progress accelerated, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, but the upward space was limited by hedging pressure [12]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global: The ending stocks for the 25/26 season were significantly increased, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose The November USDA report was the first after the US government ended the shutdown. The USDA significantly increased the global cotton production by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to September, including increases in the US, Brazil, and China. Global cotton consumption was only slightly increased by 10,000 tons to 25.88 million tons, with the increase in consumption far less than the increase in supply. Due to a slight increase in the beginning stocks, the ending stocks were increased by 610,000 tons compared to September and 310,000 tons year - on - year. The new - season global cotton market supply - demand outlook is relatively loose [16]. US: The USDA increased US cotton production, and the export target is still uncertain The USDA increased US cotton production by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons in November, mainly due to the significant improvement in yield. The new - season US cotton export volume was slightly increased by 40,000 tons to 2.66 million tons. However, the US cotton sales progress is still significantly behind compared to previous years, and it is still uncertain whether the export target can be achieved, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment. As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress was 71%, behind the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought situation has slightly expanded, but its impact on cotton growth has weakened [19][20][23]. India: The yield is expected to remain stable year - on - year, and there are differences in import and consumption estimates The USDA made few adjustments to India's cotton supply - demand this month. The 25/26 season's cotton yield is estimated to be 5.23 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; imports are estimated to be 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons year - on - year; consumption is estimated to be 5.44 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; exports are estimated to be 280,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons year - on - year; and ending stocks are estimated to be 2.29 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. The India Cotton Association (CAI) has different estimates, with a decrease in yield, an increase in imports, a decrease in domestic demand, a decrease in exports, and an increase in ending stocks compared to the previous year [30]. Brazil: The yield increase expectation for the 25/26 season is stable, but the export target is challenging According to the November USDA report, Brazil's cotton production for the 25/26 season was increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons compared to September, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA also slightly increased Brazil's cotton export volume by 40,000 tons to 3.16 million tons, and the ending stocks were increased by 60,000 tons compared to September and 160,000 tons year - on - year. The current sales progress of Brazilian cotton is still significantly behind, and the overseas textile and clothing export performance is weak, so the subsequent export of Brazilian cotton still faces significant pressure [33]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA: Continuously increased domestic cotton production, showing a slight inventory accumulation in the new season The November USDA report significantly increased China's cotton production for the 25/26 season by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year, and slightly increased imports by 40,000 tons to 1.18 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. The ending stocks were increased by 260,000 tons compared to September and 70,000 tons compared to the 24/25 season, showing a slight inventory accumulation [36]. BCO: Slightly increased the consumption for the 25/26 season, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose In November, the Cotton Information Network (BCO) made few adjustments to the domestic supply - demand data for the 25/26 season. The national production was stable at 7.42 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year. Imports remained at the estimated 1.2 million tons. The annual spinning cotton consumption expectation was increased by 60,000 tons, and other consumption was decreased by 30,000 tons. Exports remained at 20,000 tons. The ending stocks were decreased by 30,000 tons to 6.33 million tons, but still increased by 170,000 tons year - on - year, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose [40][41]. Purchase and Sale: The new cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the yield increase expectation is further strengthened As of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.9%, the delivery rate was 98.1%, the processing rate was 64.2%, and the sales rate was 27.9%, all higher than the same period last year and the four - year average. The expected new cotton production is 7.432 million tons, and the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton is 7.351 million tons, an increase of 755,000 tons year - on - year [44]. Import: The import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the new season The domestic cotton import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. Although the tariff on US cotton imports has been reduced, the expected increase in domestic cotton production and the limited quota are expected to keep the new - season import volume at a low level. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 66.9% year - on - year [46][48]. Inventory: The commercial inventory turned positive year - on - year, with significant short - term supply pressure In October, the domestic new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the commercial inventory increased rapidly, turning positive year - on - year. As of the end of October 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial inventory and available inventory also increased [51]. Direct Downstream: Mainly for raw material procurement based on rigid demand, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable The downstream demand is currently not strong but still has some resilience. The cotton yarn market has entered the off - season, with a decline in orders. The Xinjiang market is stable without inventory pressure. The grey fabric market is differentiated, with the clothing category weak and the home textile category having continuous sales. The weaving mills' inventory is low, and they mainly purchase as needed. The spinning profit has improved, and the inventory pressure on finished products is not large, but attention should be paid to the subsequent foreign trade orders [61]. Terminal Consumption: Domestic demand is growing steadily, and the foreign trade is under pressure but the export environment is expected to improve Domestically, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles have achieved stable growth this year. In October, the retail sales were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales were 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Externally, textile and clothing exports continued to be under pressure in October. However, the Sino - US negotiation has achieved substantial progress, and the export tariff has been reduced, which is expected to improve the export competitiveness. In the last two months of the fourth quarter, exports to the US are expected to pick up slightly, and the foreign trade export environment is expected to improve next year [70][71]. 2026 Cotton Market Outlook - **International**: The November USDA report is bearish for the market. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere and weak global textile end - consumption. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space, but the upward drive is unclear, and attention should be paid to the subsequent sales [81]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be resilient, and the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas new - capacity addition is limited in 2025 - 2026. With major overseas broadleaf pulp mills announcing production cuts and conversions in the second half of this year, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. European economic improvement may increase the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition in recent years may bring more supply next year, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [5][50]. - Regarding demand, although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production this year, terminal demand was insufficient, paper was in surplus, and paper mills' operating rates were low. The downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high port inventories. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, the demand for cultural paper is not expected to be strong, and packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [5][50]. - Overall, in the short - term, the improvement in pulp supply and demand is insufficient, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pulp price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait for the bottom - building and then consider long - position opportunities when the price is low. The breakthrough from the bottom depends on substantial improvement in supply and demand. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining cloth - needle warehouse receipts on the market [6][51]. Summary by Directory 2025 Pulp Market Review - The pulp price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by wide - range fluctuations at a low level throughout the year. It can be divided into five stages: from January to early February, it fluctuated strongly; from mid - February to early May, it declined continuously; from mid - May to July, it fluctuated widely; from August to early October, it hit a new low again; from mid - October to the present, it consolidated at a low level [12][13]. Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Wood Pulp Supply - In 2025, overseas pulp mills had few large - scale new installations. The capacity ramp - up of Suzano's broadleaf pulp in Brazil was the main source of market pressure. The global broadleaf pulp shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, and the global softwood pulp shipments recovered rapidly in the third quarter. The shipments to Western Europe and North America decreased, while the demand from China increased significantly. In 2025, from January to September, the cumulative global softwood pulp shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative global broadleaf pulp shipments increased by 7.7% year - on - year. In September, pulp mills reduced inventories, but the overall inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the softwood pulp inventory pressure was higher than that of broadleaf pulp [16]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the pressure of overseas new - capacity release is expected to ease, and the global broadleaf pulp supply pressure may decrease marginally. The growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down, while the softwood pulp may still see a slight increase in the short - term due to high inventory and rising shipments [17]. European Consumption and Inventory - European demand remained weak. In October, the consumption of softwood pulp in Europe was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the consumption of broadleaf pulp was 562,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In October, the inventory days at European pulp mills remained at a historical high, suppressing the pulp price. Most European ports' inventories decreased month - on - month in September, and the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month, but it was still at a relatively high level in recent years [21]. China's Pulp Imports - In 2025, the cumulative global pulp shipments increased slightly year - on - year. Due to weak demand in the European and American markets, China became the main destination for increased shipments. From January to October, China's cumulative pulp imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The increase in China's pulp imports mainly came from the rise in broadleaf pulp imports, and the total softwood pulp imports also increased, but the increase was relatively small [24][25]. - In 2026, with the recovery of the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp sent to China may decline. The import pressure of broadleaf pulp may decrease, and the increase in softwood pulp imports is also expected to be limited [25]. China's Port Inventories - In 2025, China's pulp port inventories remained at a high level for a long time, indicating an oversupply in the domestic pulp market. Downstream paper mills had low willingness to replenish raw material inventories and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In November, the port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure remained. The combined pulp inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Baoding area in late November was about 2.0104 million tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous month [31]. China's Downstream Consumption - In recent years, the large - scale new - capacity addition in the domestic finished paper industry led to over - capacity and insufficient demand, squeezing the paper mills' profits. Some large enterprises limited or stopped production. In 2025, the new - capacity addition of white cardboard and offset paper still put pressure on their profits. Although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the overall paper production did not increase significantly. From January to October, the total output of four major types of paper was 31.02 million tons, almost the same as last year. In the long - term, the planned new - capacity addition of paper is still large, and the pulp demand is expected to increase slightly next year. But if the terminal orders do not improve, the upside of the pulp price will be limited [34][35]. 2026 Pulp Market Outlook - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe may increase, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition may bring more supply, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [50]. - Demand: Terminal demand is insufficient, and paper mills' operating rates are low. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [50]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the pulp market will fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities when the price is low [7].

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 回顾 2025 年的内外糖价走势，市场整体围绕 25/26 榨季全球食糖供应增加预期进行交易，全年呈现出震荡下跌的走势。内盘大方 向跟随外盘，阶段性的价格强弱主要受到国内产销进度及国内政策的影响…… 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 研究院 农产品组 研究员 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖年报 2025-11-30 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal and coke market experienced significant fluctuations, with coal policies playing a decisive role in correcting supply - demand imbalances and guiding prices back to rational levels. In 2026, the supply - demand situation of coal and coke is expected to remain generally balanced, but short - term supply - demand mismatches caused by policy changes cannot be ignored. The prices of coal and coke will still fluctuate with the black sector, but the volatility will decrease significantly compared to 2025 [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Coal Coke Market Review 2025 Coking Coal Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coking coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend in 2025. The futures price of the main coking coal contract dropped from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 709 yuan/ton, a decline of 40%, and then rebounded to 1,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 87%. The spot price fluctuations were lower than those of futures. For example, the price of Shaheyi Mongolian coal No. 5 dropped by 27% and then rebounded by 52% [7]. - **Supply Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply was loose due to relaxed production control policies. After the central government's policies and inspections in July, the growth of coking coal production was curbed. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 438 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - **Import Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports decreased significantly. In the second half, imports gradually increased. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports in 2025 will reach 116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Mongolia's coking coal imports showed a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, while the imports from the US and Australia decreased [35]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, coking coal demand increased throughout the year. It is predicted that the cumulative pig iron production will reach 921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) will reach 559 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory was continuously reduced in 2025, and the inventory structure was optimized. At the beginning of the year, the inventory was at a high level, and then it gradually shifted to the middle and lower reaches [56]. 2025 Coke Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coke price also experienced a V - shaped reversal in 2025. The futures price of the main coke contract dropped by 30% in the first half and then increased by 43% in the second half. The spot price fluctuations were also lower than those of coking coal [11]. - **Supply Side**: Coke production increased slightly in 2025. Due to insufficient coking profits, coking plants adopted a production - to - order strategy. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Coke consumption generally followed downstream demand. In 2025, the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) is predicted to reach 398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. However, the export situation was not optimistic, with a predicted cumulative net export of 679,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [12]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory was moderately reduced in 2025. The inventory of coking plants decreased to a low level in the second half of the year, the steel mills' inventory remained at a medium level, and the port inventory fluctuated at a medium - high level [80]. 2026 Coal Coke Supply - Demand Forecast 2026 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: In 2026, coking coal production is likely to continue to grow moderately, but short - term supply mismatches caused by coal policies cannot be ignored. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [13]. - **Import**: The coking coal import situation may improve in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports will reach 128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Mongolia and Canada's coking coal imports are expected to increase, while the US coking coal is unlikely to enter the Chinese market [13]. - **Demand**: Coking coal consumption will continue to increase in 2026, following the growth of steel production. It is predicted that the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [14]. 2026 Coke Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: Coke production may continue to grow slightly in 2026. The coking industry still faces problems such as over - capacity and low industrial concentration. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [15]. - **Demand**: Coke consumption may perform relatively well in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. However, the export scale is difficult to improve, with a predicted cumulative net export of 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Looking ahead to 2026, the steel sector still faces a significant oversupply situation. The downstream consumption structure of steel has changed significantly, with stable growth in manufacturing and exports offsetting the loss of steel used in real estate. Direct exports form the lower - edge support for black prices and also strongly suppress the upper price limit. Steel prices will fluctuate mainly in a low - level range. Whether policies such as crude steel production control can be implemented will be the most core factor affecting steel prices. Attention should be paid to steel cost support, tariff policies, and production control policies [1][7][11]. - In 2025, the price trend of black varieties showed a "V" shape. Coke and coking coal were weak, with a maximum mid - year decline of about 25%. By the end of the year, coking coal rose 10% and coke returned to the年初 price level. Rebar and iron ore were relatively strong, with a maximum mid - year decline of only about 8%. By the end of the year, rebar prices fell about 5% compared to the beginning of the year, and iron ore prices rose about 3% [8][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Market Operation Review - The price trend of black varieties in 2025 showed a "V" shape. In the first stage, due to the relaxation of safety supervision in coal - producing areas, coal supply recovered rapidly, suppressing carbon element prices and driving down steel prices. In the second stage, macro - policy expectations improved, coal supply contracted, and black commodities rose. Steel prices were restricted by export profits during the rebound [17][20][26]. 3.2 2026 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Capacity Replacement Suspended, Policy Disturbance Limited - Since August 23, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has suspended the publicity and announcement of new steel capacity replacement plans. In 2025, there was no new capacity replacement publicity. The steel industry maintained good production profits in 2025, and steel mills lacked the willingness to cut production actively. Local governments faced strong employment and fiscal pressure, so the policy - driven force for mandatory production cuts was insufficient. It is expected that the impact of policy on steel production capacity changes in 2026 will still be limited [29][30]. 3.2.2 Overseas Steel Supply Situation - It is estimated that the global crude steel output in 2025 will be 1.97 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.0%, and overseas crude steel output will be 836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year slight increase of 0.4%. In 2026, global crude steel output is expected to be 1.995 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and overseas global crude steel output will be 845 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.0% [9][33][34]. 3.3 2026 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supported by "Trading Price for Volume", Exports Remain High - Since 2011, when domestic steel enterprises' profits are under pressure, they have relieved domestic supply pressure through exports. In 2025, domestic steel prices were low but still maintained good production profits. Exports effectively resolved the domestic oversupply pressure through the "trading price for volume" effect. In 2026, although exports face anti - dumping pressure, domestic steel has strong price competitiveness. It is expected that domestic steel net exports will increase by about 10 million tons, but attention should be paid to the impact of intensified trade protectionism [41][44][52]. 3.3.2 Driven by Macroeconomic Policies, Manufacturing Demand Increases Steadily - Since the decline of the real estate industry, the steel demand structure has changed significantly. Manufacturing steel demand and exports have increased rapidly, offsetting the loss of steel used in real estate. In 2025, the manufacturing industry was generally weak. However, the automotive manufacturing industry maintained positive year - on - year growth. It is expected that in 2026, manufacturing demand will remain high with the support of policies to boost consumption and trade - in programs [53][55][61]. 3.3.3 Infrastructure Demand Remains Stable, Pay Attention to Fiscal Situation - In 2025, infrastructure investment growth declined. The power sector led by central funds was relatively strong, while sectors related to local funds were weak. To ensure a good economic situation in the beginning year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", it is expected that fiscal policies in 2026 will be stable and progressive, and the quota of new special bonds may be further increased, but the increase in steel used in infrastructure may be limited [63][65][66]. 3.3.4 The Real Estate Industry Has Little Increment, Building Materials Remain Weak and Stable - In 2025, real estate development investment and new construction area decreased significantly year - on - year. The real estate industry's driving effect on steel consumption continued to decline. It is expected that in 2026, the weak demand pattern of building materials will be difficult to reverse, which will continue to drag down steel demand [76][77][87]. 3.4 2026 Steel Supply - Demand Deduction and Market Outlook - Supply: It is expected that the overall supply in 2026 will be abundant, with an estimated increase of 1.4% in crude steel output, about 16 million tons. The impact of policies on steel production capacity changes will still be limited [84]. - Demand: It is expected that manufacturing demand will remain high, infrastructure may have an increase but with limited space, and the real estate sector will remain weak. It is estimated that domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1% year - on - year in 2026, an increase of 650,000 tons [84]. - Net Exports: It is expected that domestic steel and billet net exports will increase by about 10 million tons in 2026, but attention should be paid to the impact of trade protectionism [85]. 3.5 Summary - The price trend of black varieties in 2025 showed a "V" shape. Coke and coking coal were weak, while rebar and iron ore were relatively strong [8][17][86]. - The supply - demand contradiction of domestic steel is not prominent. It is expected that the impact of policies on steel production capacity changes in 2026 will still be limited [9][30][86]. - In 2026, exports may increase, manufacturing demand will remain high, infrastructure investment may increase, and the real estate sector will remain weak. The steel sector still faces an oversupply situation, and steel prices will fluctuate in a low - level range [11][87][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market in 2025 was deeply influenced by the expansion cycle of production capacity and the weak growth of demand, leading to a systematic decline in the price center. Periodic rebounds were constrained by high inventory and weak market conditions. For investors, understanding these influencing factors is crucial for making correct judgments, and for producers, seizing market rhythm and supply - demand changes to conduct sell - hedging at high prices is also essential [7][18]. - The process of production capacity clearance is slow, and the proportion of low - cost natural soda ash production capacity is continuously increasing. Although leading enterprises can survive relying on resource endowments, the overall profitability improvement of the industry is limited. The cold repair of float glass has led to a decline in the demand for dense soda ash, and the photovoltaic glass market has turned downward. Light soda ash has become the only growth point. In 2026, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the profit rebound needs to wait for a substantial contraction in supply or a recovery in glass demand [7][27]. - In 2025, the domestic soda ash production increased significantly compared with previous years. From January to October, the cumulative production was 3,302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The heavy soda ash ratio fluctuated between 53 - 57%, significantly lower than last year. Multiple production lines were put into operation in 2025, and the supply of soda ash continued to increase. If high - cost alkali plants cannot exit the market smoothly, the pattern of oversupply will be further strengthened. Considering the current industry situation, the annual supply increase in 2026 will be about 1%, with a total production increase of 35 million tons [7][8]. - In 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass remained at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass first increased and then decreased. The total daily melting volume of the two showed a trend of high in the front and low in the back, continuously lower than the same period last year. From January to October, the total daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass slightly decreased to 25.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%, corresponding to a 9.9% year - on - year decrease in the demand for dense soda ash. In addition, from January to October, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong, with the operating rate at a high level, and the apparent demand increased by 11.8% year - on - year. In 2026, the total demand for soda ash will decrease by 4.8%, a net decrease of 177 million tons, mainly from dense soda ash, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% and a net decrease of 312 million tons, while the demand for light soda ash will increase by 8% year - on - year, a net increase of 134 million tons [9][85]. - Since 2025, the domestic soda ash price has been at a low level, with a significant decrease in imports and an increase in exports. In the second half of the year, as the price continued to be low, the net export of domestic soda ash maintained a high level. From January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 175 million tons, while the same period last year was a net import of 9 million tons. It is expected that the net export volume in 2025 will increase to 218 million tons, and in 2026, it will further increase to 257 million tons [66][86]. - In 2025, the supply and demand of soda ash were continuously loose, and the total inventory remained at a high level. The three - link inventory increased from 242 million tons at the beginning of the year to 294 million tons at present, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. According to the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply will increase by 0.9% and the demand will decrease by 6.4% in 2026, and the oversupply situation will continue. After some projects were put into operation in 2025, the high - cost supply will be suppressed at low prices, and the inventory will remain at a high level throughout the year [11][87]. Summary by Directory 2025 Soda Ash Price and Profit Review 2025 Soda Ash Price Center Moved Downward - In 2025, the soda ash price showed an overall downward trend with a narrowing price range. The average ex - factory price of light soda ash from January to October was 1,335 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 31%, and the terminal average price of dense soda ash was 1,422 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. The price was mainly suppressed by the expansion of production capacity and weak demand [17]. - There were short - term price rebounds in February - March and July, but they were quickly suppressed. From April to June, the price accelerated its decline due to the release of new production capacity, and from August to October, it continued to decline due to weak demand and a decrease in exports [17]. 2025 Soda Ash Industry Profits Ran at a Low Level - In 2025, the soda ash industry was under continuous pressure on profits, showing a deep - loss pattern. The core factors were over - capacity and rising costs. From the beginning to the middle of the year, the losses continued to expand, and the profits of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process continued to deteriorate. In October, the increase in the price of thermal coal led to a decline in the profits of the combined - soda process, and in November, the profits of the ammonia - soda process further declined [27]. - The process of production capacity clearance is slow, and the proportion of low - cost natural soda ash production capacity is increasing. The overall profitability improvement of the industry is limited. In 2026, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the profit rebound needs to wait for a substantial contraction in supply or a recovery in glass demand [27]. Soda Ash Production Capacity Continued to be Put into Operation, and the Capacity Will Continue to Increase in 2026 2025 New Soda Ash Production Capacity was Put into Operation, and the Annual Supply Continued to Increase - In 2025, the domestic soda ash production increased significantly. From January to October, the cumulative production was 3,302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The heavy soda ash ratio fluctuated between 53 - 57%, lower than last year [7][33]. - In the first half of the year, with the new production capacity put into operation, the production remained at a high level. In April, the monthly production reached a historical high of 364.2 million tons. In the second half of the year, the production decreased during the summer maintenance period, and then quickly recovered after the maintenance. As of November 21, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises was 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12% [33]. Production Capacity Continued to be Put into Operation, and the Supply was Expected to Continue to Increase - Multiple production lines were put into operation in 2025, and the far - reaching Xingneng Phase II 2.8 million - ton natural soda ash project will be put into operation at the end of the year. If high - cost alkali plants cannot exit the market, the oversupply situation will be further strengthened [42]. - Based on the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the soda ash production will continue to increase in the next year. Considering the current industry situation, the annual supply will increase by about 1%, with a total production increase of 35 million tons [44]. The Demand for Dense Soda Ash First Increased and then Decreased, and the Growth of Soda Ash Demand Slowed Down in 2025 In 2025, the Daily Melting Volume of Photovoltaic and Float Glass Decreased, and the Growth of Soda Ash Demand Slowed Down - In 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass remained at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass first increased and then decreased. The total daily melting volume of the two was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 158,100 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons. From January to October, the total daily melting volume slightly decreased to 250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%, corresponding to a 9.9% year - on - year decrease in the demand for dense soda ash [45]. - The demand for soda ash from float and photovoltaic glass gradually weakened due to the continuous downturn in the real - estate market and high inventory in the photovoltaic glass market. In addition, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong from January to October, with an estimated year - on - year increase of 11.8% in apparent demand [51][53]. The Demand for Dense Soda Ash Declined, the Demand for Light Soda Ash Increased, and the Soda Ash Demand Decreased in 2026 - In 2026, the over - capacity problem of photovoltaic glass remains to be solved, and the production progress will slow down significantly. Although real - estate policies are continuously introduced, the glass consumption is difficult to improve. The float glass production will continue to decline, which will suppress the demand for dense soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash will continue to increase with economic activities [58]. - It is estimated that the total demand for soda ash in 2026 will decrease by 4.8%, a net decrease of 177 million tons, mainly from a 15.3% year - on - year decrease in dense soda ash demand (a net decrease of 312 million tons), and an 8% year - on - year increase in light soda ash demand (a net increase of 134 million tons) [58]. Domestic Soda Ash Price Ran at a Low Level, and Soda Ash Exports Increased Significantly - Since 2025, the domestic soda ash price has been at a low level, with a significant decrease in imports and an increase in exports. From January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 175 million tons, while the same period last year was a net import of 9 million tons. It is expected that the net export volume in 2025 will increase to 218 million tons, and in 2026, it will further increase to 257 million tons [66][86]. The Total Soda Ash Inventory is Expected to Remain at a High Level in 2026 2025 Soda Ash Supply and Demand were Loose, and the Total Inventory Ran at a High Level - In 2025, the supply and demand of soda ash were continuously loose, and the three - link inventory increased from 242 million tons at the beginning of the year to 294 million tons at present, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. The inventory of alkali plants remained at a high level, the inventory of delivery warehouses increased significantly, and the inventory days of sample glass factories were relatively stable [70]. 2026 Soda Ash Supply and Demand will Remain Loose, and the Inventory will Remain at a High Level - According to the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply will increase by 0.9% and the demand will decrease by 6.4% in 2026, and the oversupply situation will continue. After some projects were put into operation in 2025, the high - cost supply will be suppressed at low prices, and the inventory will remain at a high level throughout the year [72]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Deduction and Market Outlook - Supply: Multiple production lines were put into operation in 2025, and the far - reaching Xingneng Phase II 2.8 million - ton natural soda ash project will be put into operation at the end of the year. If high - cost alkali plants cannot exit the market, the oversupply situation will be further strengthened. It is estimated that the production will increase by about 1% in 2026, with a total production increase of 35 million tons [73]. - Demand: In 2026, the production progress of photovoltaic glass will slow down, and the float glass production will continue to decline, suppressing the demand for dense soda ash. The demand for light soda ash will increase. The total demand for soda ash will decrease by 4.8%, a net decrease of 177 million tons [73]. - Net Export: As the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash further intensifies in 2026, the price will remain at a low level, and the export is expected to increase to 257 million tons [74]. - Inventory: After some projects were put into operation in 2025, the high - cost supply will be suppressed at low prices, and the inventory will remain at a high level throughout the year [75]. Summary - The soda ash price in 2025 showed a downward trend due to the expansion of production capacity and weak demand. In 2026, the over - capacity situation will continue, and the price will continue to decline unless some high - cost production capacity is cleared. Attention should be paid to price rebounds after production decreases due to increased enterprise maintenance and cost changes caused by thermal coal price fluctuations [6][87]. - The soda ash industry profits were under pressure in 2025, and the overall profitability improvement was limited. In 2026, the profit rebound needs to wait for a substantial contraction in supply or a recovery in glass demand [27]. - The supply of soda ash increased in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase in 2026. The demand for dense soda ash will decline, while the demand for light soda ash will increase. The net export will increase, and the inventory will remain at a high level [84][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon ferro markets showed a downward trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand, declining cost support, and weak downstream demand. In 2026, with loose silicon manganese capacity and no significant increase in downstream consumption, its price is expected to be suppressed. For silicon ferro, although supply - demand has a growth trend, the relatively sufficient capacity will lead to intense competition, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Iron Alloy Market Review - Silicon manganese: In 2025, the price center of silicon manganese gradually moved down. There were price fluctuations due to factors such as manganese ore supply disturbances, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment [16]. - Silicon ferro: In 2025, the price of silicon ferro was affected by black - sector market trends, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment, showing an overall downward trend with fluctuations [17]. 2. Silicon Manganese: Loose Supply - Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas 2.1 Manganese Ore Imports Increase, but Port Manganese Ore Remains at a Low Level - In 2025, from January to October, the total manganese ore imports were 2687000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 235000 tons. The imports from Australia increased by 62000 tons compared with the same period in 2024. However, due to high port clearance volume, the port manganese ore inventory was at a low level for a long time [22]. 2.2 Long - term Losses in Production Areas, Relatively Restrained Silicon Manganese Output - From January to November 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese was at a low level, and by the end of November, it dropped below 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of silicon manganese alloy was 8.434 million tons, with a slight decline [6][56]. 2.3 Good Profits of Downstream Enterprises, Resilient Demand for Silicon Manganese - In 2025, the steel industry showed a positive trend. From January to October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained above 50% for a long time. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan, much higher than the same period last year. The demand for silicon manganese in major steel products remained resilient [61][63]. 2.4 High Inventory of Alloy Enterprises Suppresses Price Increase - By the end of November, the inventory of sample silicon manganese enterprises reached 368000 tons, at a high level in the same period. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory to some extent, the high inventory of alloy enterprises still put pressure on the price [71]. 3. Silicon Ferro: Output Increases Year - on - Year, Cost Center Moves Down 3.1 Silicon Ferro Price Fluctuates at a Low Level, Alloy Enterprises Suffer Long - term Losses - Affected by loose supply - demand, the silicon ferro price was suppressed. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices, and further rose in July due to "anti - involution" sentiment, but then fluctuated downward [10]. 3.2 Resilient Downstream Demand, Slight Increase in Output - From January to October 2025, the total output of silicon ferro was 4.624 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. The demand for downstream products such as metal magnesium and stainless steel was resilient [87]. 3.3 Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, Some Inventory Replenishment by Downstream Silicon Ferro Enterprises - By the end of November, the consumption of silicon ferro in major steel products increased slightly year - on - year. The output of stainless steel crude steel increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the consumption of silicon ferro also increased. The output of metal magnesium remained stable. By the end of October, the available days of silicon ferro inventory in steel mills were 15.67 days, higher than the same period in 2024 but still at a low level in the past five years [91][99]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - It is estimated that in 2026, overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 2.0%, and production will increase by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1%, and production will increase by 1.4%. - Silicon manganese: The output is expected to decrease by 0.14%, domestic consumption will decrease by 0.28% (excluding state reserves), and exports will remain at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. - Silicon ferro: The output is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year, domestic consumption will increase by 1.7%, and exports will decrease by 4.5%. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [103][106][108].