Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the glass price showed an overall downward trend with significant pressure in the second half of the year due to intensified supply - demand contradictions, hitting a new low. The core contradiction was "high supply + weak demand + high inventory", and the price struggled near the cost line without rebound momentum [8][37][69]. - For 2026, the real - estate market will remain weak, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption. The overall glass consumption is expected to decline by about 6.0% in 2026. The current profit of float glass has significantly narrowed, and some production processes are in obvious losses. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, production line cold repairs may increase, and the supply is expected to decline by 1.9%. Short - term glass still faces a certain degree of oversupply, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes for trading opportunities [7][11][70]. - In the short term, in the absence of real - estate stimulus policies and large - scale cold repairs of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct short - selling hedging at high prices [12][71]. Summary by Directory 2025 Glass Market Review 1.1 Real - Estate Industry Continued to Cool, and Completion Year - on - Year Declined Further - In 2025, the glass price showed an overall downward trend. From January to June, affected by the continuous shrinkage of real - estate completion area and low - volume deep - processing orders, the glass futures main contract fell from the high at the beginning of the year. From July to August, there was a short - term price rebound due to policy expectations, but it fell again after no substantial policies were introduced. From September to October, the traditional peak consumption season did not see a demand rebound, and the price hit a new low. In November, the price dropped below 1000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was bearish [17][37][69]. 1.2 Limited Support from Real - Estate Policies, and Home - Improvement Retail Orders Strengthened Temporarily due to National Subsidies - In 2025, the support effect of real - estate policies weakened, and the real - estate completion end dragged down glass consumption. Home - improvement retail orders increased temporarily due to national subsidies, but the situation after the subsidy withdrawal needs attention. From January to October, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The sales of existing homes were better than pre - sold homes, with the proportion of existing home sales rising to 35.3%. The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities increased by 5% year - on - year from January to October, showing a "price - for - volume" trend [23][24][30]. 1.3 New - Energy Vehicles Maintained a Good Momentum, Supporting Automotive Glass Consumption - From January to October 2025, the cumulative national automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, and the cumulative new - energy vehicle production was 12.672 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. The automobile export also maintained a high positive growth, with a cumulative export of 6.51 million vehicles from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 23.1% [34]. 2026 Glass Industry Outlook 2.1 The Weakness of the Real - Estate Market is Difficult to Reverse, and Completion Continues to Drag Down Glass Consumption - For 2026, the focus of the glass consumption judgment is still on the real - estate industry. The real - estate completion end has been dragging down glass consumption. New home transactions have not improved, and the completion consumption has declined for two consecutive years. In the long run, the real - estate market will remain weak, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption [38][69][70]. 2.2 Glass Profit is Compressed, and Supply is Uncertain - In 2025, glass consumption continued to weaken, and the production profit was significantly compressed. As of November 21, the petroleum coke and coal - gas production methods maintained a small profit, while the natural - gas production line had obvious losses, with a loss of more than 200 yuan/ton. The float glass production has been at a low level, and the glass supply is expected to decline. For 2026, if the industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, production line cold repairs may increase, and production may decline [46][54][70]. 2026 Glass Supply - Demand Outlook - In 2025, affected by the decline in glass consumption, the production profit of float glass was continuously compressed, and the production volume was at a low level. The decline in consumption was greater than that in production, resulting in an increase in inventory after the Spring Festival. As of November 21, the glass inventory was higher than the previous year, maintaining a medium - to - high level. It is expected that the glass consumption will decline by about 6.0% in 2026, and the supply will decline by 1.9% [7][11][58].

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 2025 国内钢材消费存在韧性，铁水产量长时间维持高位，废钢消费同比出现正增长。2026 年作为中国"十五五"的开局之年，宏观政策 的出台将为废钢市场带来新的动力，因此预计 2026 年废钢供应和需求均有小幅增长。价格方面，全球宏观经济格局存在较多变化，影响 大宗商品价格，预计废钢消费稳中小幅增加，整体矛盾不大，价格跟随黑色板块区间震荡运行……。 废钢供给结构变革，价格震荡运行 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 王海涛 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 从业资格号 F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 从业资格号:F3054449 投资咨询号:Z0016137 邝志鹏 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 从业资格号 F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 本期分析研究员 邢亚文 期货研究报告 | 废钢年报 2025-11-30 废钢供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is an expectation of tight supply at the mine end. Overseas mine supply growth is slowing, and domestic mines are affected by depletion. The Huoshaoyun Mine may not contribute significantly to the market due to poor market utilization. TC is unlikely to rise, and the Benchmark may remain below $100/ton, failing to stimulate overseas smelting growth. In China, smelters are also facing comprehensive cost losses. Therefore, with the expected tight supply at the mine end in 2026, the pressure on smelting supply is expected to weaken significantly. - At the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan and during the overseas interest rate cut cycle, there are positive expectations for the consumer end. Even if the production of the Huoshaoyun Mine is realized smoothly, the supply and demand will remain balanced in 2026, but there is still a possibility of the invisibility of visible inventory, resulting in a downward trend in social inventory. If the Huoshaoyun Mine fails to be put into production as expected, the supply and demand will be tight. - The report is not pessimistic about the zinc price in 2026 [5]. Summary by Directory I. Zinc Ore - **1.1 Overseas mines are growing as expected, but the supply pressure will significantly decline in 2026** - In Q3 2025, overseas mine production was 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 126,000 tons; the cumulative production of the sample from January to September was 3.755 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 326,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from new and复产 projects as expected. Kipushi has复产 as scheduled, with improved grade and recovery rate, and its production is expected to increase further. Its production is expected to increase by 60,000 tons year-on-year in 2026. Antamina is one of the main mines contributing to the increase overseas this year, with a year-on-year increase of 172,000 tons in zinc concentrate production from January to September. However, it will shift to copper production from 2026 - 2028, and its production is expected to be lower than in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 150,000 tons in 2026. The复产 of the Tera Mine is slower than expected, with a production of 60,000 tons in the first three quarters. It is expected to contribute an incremental output of 10,000 - 20,000 tons in 2026. Gamsberg's production has increased significantly due to improved capacity utilization and a higher proportion of high-grade ore, and it is expected to contribute an incremental output of 50,000 tons in the second half of 2026. Grupo Mexico's production has increased due to improved mine grade, but its incremental output in 2026 is expected to be less than 10,000 tons. The OZ Mine is expected to contribute an incremental output of 100,000 tons in 2026. The Red Dog Mine's production has declined due to grade decline, and it is expected to continue to decline by 80,000 - 100,000 tons year-on-year in 2026 [11][12][13]. - It is estimated that the overseas zinc concentrate production will be 8.29 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 420,000 tons, and is expected to contribute an incremental output of 90,000 tons in 2026 [6]. - For domestic mines, from January to October, the domestic zinc ore production was 3.058 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 tons. Due to factors such as depletion of existing domestic mines, the production of old mines in the sample is showing a downward trend. The Huoshaoyun Mine has great uncertainties, and its impact on the market needs to be further observed. In 2025, without considering the Huoshaoyun Mine, the new and复产 capacities will contribute 50,000 tons, but considering the decline in the production of sample mines, the domestic ore supply will increase slightly by 30,000 tons year-on-year. In 2026, the new and复产 projects are expected to contribute an output of about 60,000 tons, and with the use of a small amount of ore sold by the Huoshaoyun Mine for blending, the domestic ore supply is expected to increase by 100,000 tons (excluding the contribution of the Huoshaoyun Mine's self - smelting into zinc ingots). At the same time, attention should be paid to the production decline of old sample mines due to depletion problems [14][15][16]. - From January to October, the import of zinc ore was 4.349 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 36.6%. Since June, zinc ore imports have been facing continuous losses, and the year-on-year growth rate of monthly zinc ore imports has dropped rapidly [16]. II. Refined Zinc - **2.1 High profit pressure at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will be alleviated quarter-on-quarter** - In China, the supply pressure began to appear in the second half of the year. From June, the daily average output increased significantly month-on-month, and from July, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly output exceeded 20%. The social inventory of zinc ingots began to accumulate rapidly from July, and the domestic spot market quickly changed from a premium structure to a discount structure under high supply pressure. In terms of absolute price, after the price dropped rapidly from a high of over 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, in the second half of the year, after the supply pressure was realized, the absolute price fluctuated in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton, mainly supported by the macro - environment. Compared with copper and aluminum prices, the relative price of zinc is still declining [29]. - From January to October, the cumulative output of zinc ingots was 5.686 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.1%. It is estimated that the annual output will be 5.9 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.5%. From January to October, China's cumulative import of refined zinc was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 26.6%. In 2025, China's long - term import order of zinc ingots was about 15,000 - 20,000 tons per month. The import window closed in May, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the import loss expanding. The export window opened in October. It is expected that China's long - term import order of zinc ingots will significantly decrease in 2026 and may even approach zero, and the export window may open periodically, and China will become a net exporter of zinc ingots, which will effectively relieve the domestic supply pressure [29][30][31]. - Since September, the domestic mine TC has started to decline, and since October, the imported mine TC has also declined synchronously. The smelting losses of domestic smelters have expanded, from a minimum loss of 100 yuan/ton to a loss of 1,300 yuan/ton. Even with the continuous increase in the sulfuric acid price, the industry is currently at the break - even point, and high - cost areas are facing comprehensive cost losses. The daily average output of the supply side has dropped from a high of 20,200 tons to 19,900 tons. Although the overseas mine production is increasing as expected, the TC is showing a downward trend. From the perspective of mine supply, although the supply will still grow in 2026, the worst - expected period has ended. Therefore, considering the smelting profit, the current supply pressure still exists, but it is expected to be alleviated quarter - on - quarter [30][31]. - Overseas supply problems may still not be resolved. It is predicted that the overseas zinc ingot output will be 6.836 million tons in 2025, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.4%. The European region has contributed to the continuous decline, which is inevitably related to the power cost problem. Since the European energy crisis, the power cost has not returned to the pre - crisis level and is even higher than the domestic electricity price. In addition, regions such as Australia and the United States are also facing power cost problems. If the 2026 zinc ore Benchmark pricing does not improve significantly compared to this year, in the long run, the overseas supply side will not put pressure on the zinc price, and more attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [32]. - **2.2 The social inventory accumulation is lower than expected** - In the first half of the year, strong domestic demand and export - driven consumption, combined with the fact that the supply side had not yet released pressure, led to lower - than - expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and inventory depletion to a historical low during the peak season. In the second half of the year, after the supply expectations were realized, the social inventory was originally expected to accumulate to 200,000 tons, but in fact, due to the unexpected growth of domestic demand and the overseas warehouse receipt risk, the export window opened. Since October, although the social inventory is at a historical high for the same period, it has shown a seasonal downward trend. The highest point of the social inventory this year was only 160,000 tons. The reasons for the lower - than - expected inventory accumulation include: consumption structural reform, which made us underestimate the actual consumption as the decline of traditional real estate and infrastructure offset by new consumption; the expansion of the alloying scale of intermediate processed products, resulting in the invisibility of visible inventory; the opening of the export window, which enabled traders and smelters to open up overseas sales channels. If the domestic supply side is compressed due to cost problems in the future, the inventory depletion rhythm is expected to accelerate, which will be a positive factor for the zinc price [53][54][56]. - The LME inventory has dropped from 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 35,000 tons, and there has been a warehouse receipt risk with a rapid increase in the spot premium. Although there has been a slight increase subsequently, the absolute inventory level is still low, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been resolved. On the one hand, there has been an unexpected production cut on the overseas supply side, and on the other hand, consumption has been strong, and overseas tariff trade wars have not affected the actual consumption [56]. III. Downstream Consumption - **3.1 Export drives galvanized consumption** - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of galvanized strips was 11.101 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The cumulative growth rate of excavator sales reached 17%, which is not in line with the growth rate of China's real estate and infrastructure, and is more due to the infrastructure demand in third - world countries driven by China's development. Therefore, in 2026, exports are expected to maintain a high - growth contribution to commodity consumption and may continue for many years. Considering the export of galvanized strips, angle steels, and automobile tires, it is estimated that exports will drive zinc consumption to increase by 120,000 tons in 2026 [64]. - **3.3 New energy power drives consumption growth** - From January to September, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. Affected by the policy, the installed capacity was pre - consumed, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be 280 - 290GW, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 3 - 5%. In 2026, the preliminary expected installed capacity is about 250GW, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%. Considering the increase in the proportion of centralized photovoltaics driving the demand for galvanizing, it is estimated that the zinc consumption in the photovoltaic sector will be 380,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 40,000 tons. - At the beginning of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are clear goals for the power grid and new energy power. It is estimated that the cumulative incremental installed capacity in five years can reach 600GW, with an average annual incremental installed capacity of 120GW, and there is a possibility of accelerating the completion at the beginning. From January to October, China's wind power installed capacity was 70GW, and the annual installed capacity is expected to be 104GW, corresponding to a zinc consumption of 310,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70,000 tons. In 2026, the expected installed capacity is 120GW, corresponding to a zinc consumption of 360,000 tons, contributing an incremental output of 50,000 tons. - From January to October, China's cumulative investment in power grid construction was 437.8 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 9.9%. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, UHV projects such as "Xinjiang Power to Sichuan" and "Gansu Power to Zhejiang" will be promoted, and rural power grid upgrading and transformation will be carried out. It is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of the 14th Five - Year Plan power grid can reach 8%, and there is a possibility of accelerating in the first two years. It is estimated that the power grid towers, transformers, etc. will drive zinc consumption by 50,000 tons [67][68]. - **3.4 Halving of domestic purchase tax, and the growth of automobile output depends on exports** - From January to October, China's cumulative automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 13.2%, among which the cumulative year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle production was 33.1%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in traditional vehicle production was 0.1%. The comprehensive data is much better than the initial expectations. It is estimated that the annual cumulative automobile production will be 33.5 million vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.3% (3.22 million vehicles). - In terms of exports, from January to October, China's cumulative automobile export volume was 5.615 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. According to this data, the annual export is estimated to contribute an incremental output of 1.1 million vehicles. According to customs data, China's cumulative automobile exports (including chassis) were 6.51 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. According to this data, the annual export is estimated to contribute an incremental output of 1.8 million vehicles. Although this includes second - hand car exports, it can also be seen that automobile exports have made a significant contribution to China's automobile production. In 2026, although the halving of the domestic automobile purchase tax may put pressure on automobile production, under the optimistic export expectations, it is estimated that the automobile production in 2026 can reach 37.2 million vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%, corresponding to an increase in zinc consumption of 60,000 - 70,000 tons [73]. - **3.5 Domestic consumption structural reform** - From January to October, China's cumulative infrastructure investment increased by only 1.5% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year decline in new real estate construction was 19.8%, the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate construction was 9.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate completion was 16.9%. The traditional consumption sector has dragged down consumption. However, structural reform brings new hope. In addition to the automobile and power investment sectors mentioned above, attention should also be paid to the investment growth rate of water transportation, which was 9.4% from January to October. - From January to October, China's cumulative air - conditioner production increased by 3% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year decline in color TV production was 2.3%, the cumulative year-on-year increase in household refrigerator production was 0.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in household washing machine production was 6.4%. The performance of the home appliance sector was mediocre [81]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the actual apparent consumption growth rate is estimated to reach 7.1%, and there is a phenomenon of the invisibility of visible inventory into finished product inventories such as zinc alloys, which also indicates that zinc alloy enterprises are expanding production due to consumption growth. After the decline in the absolute price, it is estimated that downstream enterprises will shift from active inventory depletion to active inventory replenishment, and the actual consumption growth rate can reach 4.3%. - For 2026, the actual consumption growth rate is estimated to reach 2.8%, and there is a possibility that the apparent consumption growth rate will be greater than the actual due to continuous inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises. Regarding the supply side's attitude towards the Huoshaoyun Mine, without considering its production contribution, the smelting supply growth rate is expected to be 1.7%, and there will be a domestic supply shortage of 150,000 tons. Even if an optimistic expectation is given to the Huoshaoyun Mine, contributing an incremental output of

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 新能源&有色组铝产业年报 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝年度报告 2025-11-30 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 联系人 蔺一杭 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：linyihang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily overview of the index option market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various index options on November 27, 2025 [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On November 27, 2025, the trading volumes of various index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) had 104.87 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) had 123.69 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options had 8.37 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 198.59 million contracts; SSE 50 index options had 2.17 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options had 8.20 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options had 18.41 million contracts [1]. - A table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of different index ETF options on the same day [18]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different index options on November 27, 2025, is presented. For example, the SSE 50 ETF option's turnover PCR was 0.81 with a - 0.07 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 1.00 with a + 0.16 change [2][33]. Option VIX - The VIX data of various index options on November 27, 2025, is provided. For instance, the SSE 50 ETF option's VIX was 14.68% with a - 0.74% change compared to the previous period [3][48].

化工日报 | 2025-11-28 半钢胎开工率继续回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15280元/吨，较前一日变动+85元/吨；NR主力合约12205元/吨，较前一日变动+40 元/吨；BR主力合约10400元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前一 日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1725 美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10330元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-28 市场抛压减弱，沪指收红 市场分析 企业利润回落。宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，1-10月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长1.9%， 累计增速连续三个月保持增长。10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。对外方面，中国贸促会新闻发言 人称，应美国商会邀请，中国贸促会将于12月初组织中国企业家代表团访问美国。海外方面，欧洲央行发布10月 会议纪要，详解其在该次会议上按兵不动的依据，进一步强化了市场对本轮降息周期终结的预期。欧洲央行管委 卡扎克斯最新表示，鉴于欧元区通胀仍可能高于预期，目前讨论再次降息为时尚早。 沪指收红。现货市场，A股三大指数延续冲高回落走势，沪指涨0.29%收于3875.26点，创业板指跌0.44%。行业方 面，板块指数涨跌互现，轻工制造、基础化工、石油石化行业涨幅居前，传媒、商贸零售、计算机行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.8万亿元。海外方面，美股因感恩节休市。欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨，德国DAX指数涨 0.18%报23767.96点。 期指活跃度提升。期货市场，基差方面，IH、IF、IC贴水程度收窄。成交持仓方面，股指期货的成交 ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish fundamental drive for oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [2]. - PX: PXN was $271 per ton in the previous - previous trading day (a $6.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With market speculation on the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage and the lifting of India's BIS, PXN has widened recently. Relying on the current ample MX supply, PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level even with some fluctuations in refinery start - ups. Overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of individual plants. Attention should be paid to the diversion of gasoline blending in the strong gasoline market [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 36 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 194 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 255 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. Supported by the polyester load upstream, PTA supply - demand has improved, and the basis has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the polyester load. In the long - term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly with the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply, and the rebound of raw material prices has led to concentrated restocking. The sales of filament yarns have increased significantly, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, reducing the fentanyl tariff by 10%, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventories are low, and the polyester load is not expected to decline significantly in the short term, remaining around 91% [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 171 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the stage - low price, but it is difficult to raise prices. With the marginal weakening of demand orders, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 463 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and large manufacturers generally maintain production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and pay attention to the 05 contract in the long - term. For cross - variety and cross - period trading, there are no recommended strategies [5][6]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][14] Upstream Profit and Spread - It covers PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report shows the toluene America - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes information on China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament yarn sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate [47][49][53] PF Detailed Data - It includes polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosting market sentiment, but economic data showing slowdowns [2] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and the Fed's next - step policy is affected by candidates for the Fed chair [2] - Japan has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, and the eurozone's financial stability is at risk [2] - In the current inflation - expectation game stage, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic news includes the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal, Sino - US economic and trade achievements, and various policy meetings. Economic data shows slowdowns in manufacturing, exports, investment, consumption, and industry [2] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20th to over 70%. US economic data shows mixed signals, and the release of some data is postponed. The next Fed chair candidate may impact monetary policy [2] - Japan has a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI has declined, and the European Central Bank warns of financial stability risks. The UK's OBR has adjusted GDP growth forecasts [2] - For commodities, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, and the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term [2] Strategy - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [3] Key News - Multiple important events are reported, such as the meeting on price disorderly competition cost determination, the extension of US tariffs exemption, the release of China's military control white paper, and the Fed's and European Central Bank's reports [5]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's January light crude oil futures rose 20 cents to close at $58.86 per barrel, a 0.22% increase; January Brent crude oil futures rose 40 cents to close at $63.53 per barrel, a 0.76% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.46% at 452 yuan per barrel [1] - Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta announced a comprehensive energy plan to pave the way for new oil pipelines, large - scale carbon capture projects, and nuclear power supply for data centers, aiming for net - zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050 [1] - As of the week ending November 26, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 191,000 barrels to 24.709 million barrels; light distillate inventory fell 898,000 barrels to 13.524 million barrels; middle distillate inventory fell 1.954 million barrels to 8.007 million barrels [1] - On November 26 at 11:30 p.m., a drone attacked the Khor Mor gas field in Iraq, cutting off the gas supply to the power station and causing a major gas storage tank to catch fire, with no casualties [1] - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban's chief of staff said that involving Hungary's oil and gas company might be a solution for Serbia's refinery situation, and negotiations on Serbia's NIS are ongoing [1] - The US Environmental Protection Agency finalized a new rule giving oil and gas operators over a year's grace period to comply with Biden - era methane leakage regulations, expected to save about $750 million in compliance costs over the next decade [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - On November 26, Beijing allocated the first batch of 2026 crude oil import quotas to non - state - owned enterprises. The total amount of 7.4 million tons was lower than expected but 1.4 million tons more than the same period last year. It helps ease the quota shortage of private refineries, but in the medium - term, private large - scale refineries may squeeze local refineries' quotas, and quota management is a key measure to combat involution in the refining industry [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, with a medium - term short - position configuration and shorting the monthly spread [3] Group 4: Risk - Downside risks include a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]