Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong. The supply side is expected to increase, and the consumption side, although showing some resilience, cannot match the high growth on the supply side. Overseas inventories have a risk of delivery, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may dominate the price trend again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$2.77/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at -70 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 23, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,850 yuan/ton and closed at 22,975 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 173,574 lots, a decrease of 11,004 lots, and the open interest was 137,891 lots, an increase of 3,831 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,815 - 23,020 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 115,325 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong [3] - **Cost Side**: With the zinc ore import window closed, the import volume in June increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the imported ore TC continued to rise, the smelting profit was maintained, and the supply side was expected to increase. Smelters had sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for purchasing ore [3] - **Consumption Side**: Although the downstream operating rate showed relative resilience and overall consumption was not bad, it could not match the high growth on the supply side [3] - **Inventory Situation**: There is an expectation of delivery risk for overseas inventories, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-24 关注欧美7月PMI初值，警惕商品价格波动风险 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。财政部等三 部门发布海南自由贸易港全岛封关货物税收政策。 "反内卷"交易的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召 开钢铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温， 部分商品价格回暖。从政策文件和行业自律的内容来看，当前综合整治"内卷式"竞争可以关注钢铁、炼油、合成 氨、水泥、电解铝、数据中心、煤电、光伏、锂电池 ...

指数冲高回落。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，上证指数涨0.01%收于3582.30点，创业板指跌0.01%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，非银金融、美容护理、家用电器行业领涨，建筑材料、国防军工、机械设备、电力设备 行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额保持在1.9万亿元。海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.14%报 45010.29点。 期指增仓。期货市场，股指期货基差有所分化，仅IM贴水继续修复。成交持仓方面，期指成交量和持仓量同步增 加。 FICC日报 | 2025-07-24 市场情绪降温，指数冲高回落 市场分析 美日关税谈判达成协议。国内方面，商务部新闻发言人介绍，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日 至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。中美双方将按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作 用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经贸问题开展磋商。海外方面，美方对日本 实施的"对等关税"税率将从25%下调至15%，日本将在现行的"最低准入制度"下增加美国大米的进口量，该协议还 包括日本向美国投资5500亿美元的承诺。美国白宫表示，美日投资协议将重点关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is in a volatile trend. The mainstream lead sources are in relatively high demand, but the recycled lead trading is still sluggish, and the peak - season demand is not significantly evident. Therefore, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a volatile pattern [1][2][4] Summary by Related Content Spot Market - On July 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.40 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at 0 yuan per ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures opened at 16,930 yuan per ton and closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 70,210 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots, and the position was 62,272 lots, an increase of 20,641 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,910 yuan per ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of July 23, the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, an increase of 650 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to buy low and sell high between 16,300 yuan per ton and 17,000 yuan per ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants in pure benzene and styrene production accounts for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ market has declined after reaching a peak, with the high futures premium starting to narrow. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory, and while the short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, the high - start CPL and styrene plants' operations are starting to decline. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic production is still at a high level, so the pure benzene processing fee continues to consolidate weakly. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB production has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS production has increased, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future production [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The pure benzene main contract basis is - 206 yuan/ton (+52), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The spread between the near - month BZ paper cargo and the distant BZ2603 futures is recommended to be reverse - arbitraged when the price is high [1][4] - Styrene: The styrene main contract basis is 53 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton). An EB2509 - 2510 inter - period reverse arbitrage is recommended [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 185 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 169 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 117.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid have all changed to varying degrees [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 57 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually shrink. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed when the price is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 17.10 tons (+0.70 tons). There is still pressure on inventory during the same period. Although downstream demand is okay in the short term, the operating rates of CPL and styrene are starting to decline [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+12,200 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+11,200 tons), which is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The domestic EB operating rate has declined slightly but is still at a relatively high level [1][3] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.18% (+2.12%) - PS: The production profit is - 76 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%) - ABS: The production profit is 225 yuan/ton (- 69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics persists, which may drag down future operating rates [2][3] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1890 yuan/ton (+30), and the operating rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%) - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 81.00% (+3.00%) - Aniline: The production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74), and the operating rate is 75.86% (+4.96%) - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1491 yuan/ton (+52), and the operating rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been in a range - bound market recently, with no obvious short - term contradictions and event drivers. However, due to the extremely high crude oil inventory in China, the risk of price decline is accumulating. The market has different understandings of China's continuous increase in crude oil inventory. The core issue is that although the current monthly spread structure does not support arbitrage through oil storage, it cannot be disproven whether the inventory build - up is from SPR. The absorption capacity of SPR has a limit, and crude oil imports will eventually need to match the growth rate of crude oil processing volume and refined oil demand [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6 cents to $65.25 per barrel, a decrease of 0.09%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 8 cents to $68.51 per barrel, a decrease of 0.12%. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 0.42% to 506 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.525 million barrels, an increase of 971,000 barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 597,000 barrels to 7.985 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory decreased by 393,000 barrels to 2.2 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 767,000 barrels to 10.34 million barrels [1] - Representatives from Iran, Russia, and China held talks in Tehran on Tuesday to discuss the Iranian nuclear program. China advocates resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through political and diplomatic means and will continue to play a constructive role [1] - For the week ending July 18 in the United States, the EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.565 million barrels and a previous value of - 3.859 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 455,000 barrels, with a previous value of 213,000 barrels. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was - 200,000 barrels, with a previous value of - 300,000 barrels [1] Investment Logic - The oil price is in a range - bound market recently. The risk of price decline is accumulating due to high Chinese crude oil inventory. There are different views on China's inventory build - up, and the key is that SPR's absorption capacity is limited, and imports should match processing volume and demand [2] Strategy - The oil price will have short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks include the relaxation of Iranian oil sanctions and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-24 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：前期空FU裂解价差（FU-Brent或FU-SC）头寸可适当止盈 跨期：前期FU反套头寸可逐步止盈 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 俄罗斯7月高硫燃料油发货量回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.69%，报2879元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.28%，报3565 元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对FU、LU短期方向指引有限，中期则面临平衡表转松的下行压力。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，目前基本面缺乏亮点，近期市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端 供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。近期伊朗和俄罗斯高硫燃料油发货量都出现一定增加态势。其中，俄罗斯7月发货 量预计在237万吨，环比6月增加47万吨，同比去年提升22万吨。但往前看，我们认为高硫燃料油结构性利好因素 并未完全消退，如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a unilateral strategy of "oscillating weakly" for the LPG market, with no specific recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. 2. Core View - The LPG market currently shows weak fundamentals and a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract has continuously declined and fallen below 4,000 yuan/ton again. It is necessary to wait for signals of market stabilization and stop - falling. The overall price fluctuation of the domestic LPG market is limited, with supply remaining sufficient and demand in a weak state [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Analysis - On July 23, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4,520 - 4,670 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4,190 - 4,380 yuan/ton; North China market, 4,530 - 4,680 yuan/ton; East China market, 4,330 - 4,600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4,500 - 4,660 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4,050 - 4,200 yuan/ton; South China market, 4,548 - 4,700 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 542 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton) and butane at 524 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,261 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) for propane and 4,120 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices were propane at 536 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton) and butane at 521 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 4,214 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) for propane and 4,096 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. - The LPG spot market had a narrow - range adjustment. In South China, the price gap was reduced, and the lower - end prices increased, driving the center of gravity to move up slightly. In Central China, prices declined due to the weak external market. Overseas supply remained abundant, with high US exports and an increase in the arrival volume in July. Domestic supply was also sufficient, while the demand for civil gas was in a slack season, and the PDH profit in the deep - processing sector improved marginally, with the operating rate rising above 70%, but lacked the impetus for continuous growth [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面走势转弱，沥青现货延续跌势 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 市场分析 1、7月23日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3594元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.47%；持仓198184手，环比下降5747手，成交201956手，环比下跌36618手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3560—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 近日原油价格连续回调，BU盘面走势也明显转弱。除了基准油价的回调外，稀释沥青原料供应增加的预期也对沥 青成本端形成一定压制。昨日华北以及山东市场沥青现货价格均有所下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主， 整体情绪一般。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存处于低位，市场短期压力有限但上行驱动 不足，需要等待新的变量兑现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are fluctuating with a slight upward trend. The glass and soda ash markets have stable spot sales, but their futures opened high and closed low. The double - silicon market has firm spot prices and is operating steadily [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is basically stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, with significant de - stocking pressure. In the long run, supply and demand are still relatively loose [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures also opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream transactions are stable, with a wait - and - see attitude. Supply has both复产 and maintenance, with output remaining stable month - on - month. In the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to stay low. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken further, and there is great annual inventory pressure [1]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market trading atmosphere is active, and the overall price is firm. The 6517 grade in the northern market is priced at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton. Production is stable, and demand has resilience due to the recovery of hot metal production. However, high - level inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices. The Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered, and prices fluctuate with the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures fluctuated with a slight upward trend yesterday. The market sentiment is good, and the rising futures drive up the spot price. The 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is priced at 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Production has increased month - on - month, while demand has slightly decreased. Inventories are at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the rising coal price boosts the valuation. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 4: Strategies Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight downward trend [2]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4].