Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index opened high and closed high, with the trading volume of the two markets rebounding to over 2 trillion yuan. The latest ADP data released by the US last night showed an unexpected rebound in employment, which somewhat dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. After the data release, the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index both turned up, and the US dollar index subsequently declined. However, due to the continuous stagnation of wage growth and the inflation pressure indicated by the input price index released by the US ISM, the market's bet on the probability of an interest rate cut in December has decreased but is still higher than the probability of no cut, which has little impact on the A-share market. In terms of the basis of stock index futures, except for the deepening of the discount of the current and next quarterly contracts of IH, the discounts of the rest have converged, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. However, today, despite the collective rise of the indices, stocks did not show a general upward trend, with a rise-fall ratio of only 1.2. The rising sectors were mainly those that had corrected significantly recently, indicating significant sector rotation. Therefore, it is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate in the short term [4]. Market Review - Today, the stock indices closed higher across the board. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 1.43%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 182.906 billion yuan. Stock index futures all rose with shrinking volumes [2]. Important Information - The US "small non-farm payrolls" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, while wage growth continued to stagnate. The US employment market showed signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline. The ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000 and reversing the situation of a revised decrease of 29,000 last month [3]. - The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight-month high, and the price payment index reached a three-year high. The US ISM Services PMI in October was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The new order index jumped to a one-year high. While demand rebounded, inflation pressure became more obvious. The input price index rose to 70, the highest level in three years. The employment situation is stabilizing, although the relevant index is still in contraction [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.39 | 1.04 | 1.69 | 1.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.1413 | 5.1481 | 13.3488 | 20.343 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5203 | -0.1639 | -1.3675 | -3.5254 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4651 | 9.6234 | 24.9495 | 34.9856 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5389 | -0.0744 | -0.694 | -1.6927 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.97 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.73 | | Stock rise-fall ratio | 1.20 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2055.248 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | 182.906 | [7]

南华原油风险管理日报 2025年11月6日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 油价继续承压，WTI原油失守60美元关口，布伦特、中国SC原油期货同步收跌。核心压力源于供应过剩，美 国原油产量创纪录新高，商业原油库存大幅增加，虽对俄制裁、欧佩克 + 暂停增产缓解部分预期，但未改 变供需格局。短期油价区间拉锯，欧美原油月差走弱显缺乏上行驱动，超预期累库风险仍存。长期全球能 源进入 "能源累加" 时代，化石燃料与可再生能源并行发展，石油需求将维持高位。短期建议维持空头 思路，把握逢高做空机会，同时防范委内瑞拉地缘冲突等突发风险，年内油价重心承压下行是大概率事 件。 【交易策略】 1.单边：区间操作，Brent上方65阻力较大，下方支撑60。 2.套利：可尝试空月差。 3.期权：观望。 美国库欣原油周度库存季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 万桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 2000 4000 6000 美国商业原油周度库存（不含战略储备 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of soybeans is currently in a stalemate due to selling pressure and cautious purchasing by traders, but the price correction is limited by factors such as the graded - pricing acquisition by CGC and the expected increase in acquisition at more depots. The futures market is strong, closing at a multi - month high, and the bottom of the new - season domestic soybean price is becoming clearer [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the soybean market. Bullish factors include the acquisition by CGC's Hulunbuir depot, the reduction in high - protein soybean production, and the absence of auction arrangements this week. Bearish factors are the possible resumption and expansion of US soybean imports after the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement and the extended selling period due to selling pressure at the grass - roots level [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the Soybean No.1 11 contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.11% and a historical percentile of 33.6% [3]. - **Risk Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the Soybean No.1 futures contract A2601 when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on contracts A2603 and A2605 after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Spot selling pressure restrains the market, and traders are cautious about purchasing at high prices, focusing on high - quality supplies. The spot price is in a short - term stalemate [4]. - CGC's graded - pricing acquisition supports the price of high - quality soybeans and props up the market, limiting the price correction [4]. - Transportation capacity restricts the outward shipment from the Northeast production area. The price of high - quality soybeans in the South production area is firm, and the ordinary soybean market is stable. The reduction in production supports the price [4]. - On Wednesday, the Soybean No.1 futures market had a large - volume increase, reversing the adjustment since October 29 and reaching a multi - month closing high. The main 01 contract rose 47 yuan/ton to close at 4123 yuan, with slightly lower open interest and record - high trading volume. The number of registered warehouse receipts was approximately 10,088 hands [4]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: CGC's Hulunbuir depot started to purchase new - season domestic soybeans on the 6th, with graded pricing, sending a market - supporting signal. The reduction in high - protein soybean production supports market sentiment and purchasing behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: After the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, China may resume and expand the import of US soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybean supplies. The selling period at the grass - roots level may be extended due to selling pressure [5]. 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3920 yuan, 3890 yuan, 3960 yuan, and 3980 yuan respectively [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract for domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun on November 5, 2025, was - 203 yuan, - 165 yuan, - 95 yuan, and - 75 yuan respectively [6]. 3.5 Futures Price - On November 5, 2025, compared with November 4, the closing prices of Soybean No.1 contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 increased by 4 yuan (0.10%), 68 yuan (1.68%), 70 yuan (1.72%), 68 yuan (1.66%), 71 yuan (1.73%), and 68 yuan (1.66%) respectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft can help identify future key focus areas. The Sino - US trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and improve market risk appetite [2]. - It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term as the Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, but there is support below [5]. - For treasury bonds, a long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - The short - term bullish trend of container shipping futures on the European line will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term [17][18]. - Zinc prices are expected to be in a strong and volatile state, and tin prices have sufficient bottom support [20][21]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, while industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [23][25]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term [26]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows [28]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be in a volatile state, with high inventory and weak demand [31]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - LPG is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - PX - PTA is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - PP and PE are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - Asphalt is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - Logs are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - Propylene is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US employment data exceeded market expectations. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft was released, and the Sino - US trade talks reached a phased consensus. The US government has been shut down for 36 days [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The short - term bullish trend will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Some downstream orders have improved [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum prices [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with support at the bottom in November [20]. - **Tin**: It has sufficient bottom support, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [21]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, with a relatively stable supply increment and strong demand in November [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a supply reduction expectation, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still weak [25]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term due to supply disturbances [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows. The anti - dumping investigation on hot - rolled coils may affect far - month contracts [28]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise due to downstream replenishment and supply restrictions [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are in a state of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to be in a volatile state [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - **LPG**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - **PP and PE**: They are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: They are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - **Logs**: They are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 06, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Northeast corn prices are stable after new - season supply shock, with state - reserve purchases limiting downside; North China prices fluctuate due to selling pressure and acquisition competition; corn prices are still affected by new - season selling pressure but have stopped falling [2] - On Wednesday, the corn futures market had a narrow - range shock, while the starch market was strong; the CBOT corn futures rose due to high US ethanol production [2] - The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the price may show a bottom - consolidation and potential rebound trend [2] Summary by Category Market Situation - **Domestic Corn and Starch Futures**: On Wednesday, the corn futures main 01 contract closed at 2134 yuan, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and 66351 registered warrants; the starch main 01 contract closed at 2451 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly increased open interest [2] - **CBOT Corn Futures**: On Wednesday, CBOT corn futures closed higher. As of October 31, US ethanol daily production reached a record high of 1.123 million barrels, and strong domestic demand offset the pressure of a bumper harvest [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Selling pressure is dispersed, reducing price pressure; state - reserve purchases in the Northeast support prices; rising prices of surrounding agricultural products indirectly support the corn market [2] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry's capacity regulation affects long - term corn feed demand, although short - term demand remains good; late - harvested corn will be listed in mid - to - early November, and there is a risk of concentrated selling pressure; market rumors of wheat auctions and increased grain imports may increase pressure on the corn market [2][3] Price Forecast - **Monthly Price Range**: Corn is predicted to be in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 53.2%; starch is predicted to be in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.61% and a volatility percentile of 42.30% [3] Price and Spread Data - **Domestic Futures Price Changes**: From November 4th to 5th, most corn and starch futures contracts had small price changes, with some rising and some remaining flat; the wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan to 2511 yuan [5] - **US Agricultural Futures and Import Data**: CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main contracts all rose on the 5th; the US Gulf and West Coast corn import duty - paid prices increased slightly, with import profits of 96.03 yuan and 212.15 yuan respectively [24] Seasonal Charts - The report also includes multiple seasonal charts, such as corn futures month - spread (01 - 05), corn and starch main - contract closing prices, corn and starch futures open interest, corn and wheat price spreads, and corn basis spreads, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and seasonal patterns [6][7][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]

国债期货日报 2025/11/5 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周三期债高开低走，品种多数收跌。资金面宽松，DR001在1.32%附近。公开市场逆回购655亿，买断式逆回 购7000亿，净投放2078亿。 重要资讯： 1.10月A股新开231万户，环比下降21%。 2.美国最高法院周三见分晓，特朗普关税命运系于其亲手任命的三位大法官；美财长贝森特自称将前往最高 院、强调关税的重要性。 TF主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TF基差：主连 TF IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 -1 0 1 2 3 TS主力合约基差与IRR -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS基差：主连 TS IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -1 0 1 2 3 行情研判： 昨日盘后央行披露10月国债净买入200亿，并公告今日将进行70 ...