——原料刚性约束与存量需求韧性的双重共振 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 摘要： 展望2026年，全球铅市将由紧平衡转向累库周期，但国内受再生铅原料瓶颈制约，将走出独立的成本防 御行情，呈现外弱内强特征。预计沪铅主力运行区间16200-18200元/吨左右，伦铅1950-2200美元/吨附 近。 供给侧分化显著：原生铅受副产品高利润驱动将维持高产，贡献主要增量；而再生铅受制于财税合规及 反向开票政策，废电瓶有效供给面临10%-15%折损，迫使产量增长停滞。原料端的隐性紧缩将确立再生铅成 本线为行业定价的坚实底座。 需求端步入存量主导时代，增速预计维持1.5%。两轮车新国标限重放宽至63kg将助推铅酸份额回升， 有效对冲锂电替代。全球10.2万吨的过剩量主要累积于海外，国内仅约3万吨微幅过剩，意味着国内显性库存 仍将维持低位，出口窗口难以开启。 南华期货有色金属铅2026年度展望 3.1 矿端：转向紧平衡 预测区间：沪铅16200-18200元/吨附近，伦铅1950至2200美元/吨左右 风险提示：宏观衰退，关税影响超预期，供给端扰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, mostly in a low - volatility range with limited trading value. Key factors include clear policy support, enhanced independent exchange - rate fluctuations, and a resonance of internal and external environments. However, potential risks such as high long - position inventories of USD/HKD and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes should be noted [3]. - The entry of the national team only boosts the market sentiment in the short term. The stock index is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and the small and medium - cap stock indexes may face pressure [4]. - For the bond market, it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, while short - term long positions can consider taking profits [5]. - In the container shipping European route, there is a bull - bear mix. The price is expected to be supported in January due to shipping companies' price - holding intentions, but factors such as weak economic data, sufficient shipping capacity, and the expected resumption of Red Sea routes may bring pressure [6]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bullish foundation for platinum remains. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. For gold and silver, be cautious about short - term callbacks, and maintain a long - term bullish view. For copper, the market sentiment is high, but the price increase did not meet expectations. For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. For zinc, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they had a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation. For tin, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. For lithium carbonate, the short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. For industrial silicon, it is in a supply - demand weak situation, and for polysilicon, the trading logic is mainly technical [9][11][13][16][19][20][22][23][24][26]. - For steel products, the price is expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is likely between 3000 - 3400. For iron ore, the downward space is expected to be limited. For coking coal and coke, if the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, the market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and there may be a short - term rebound [30][31][32][33][34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the short - term strategy is mainly to wait and see. For crude oil, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation may drive up short - term oil prices. For LPG, the near - term is still supported. For PTA - PX, there is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. For MEG - bottle chips, the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. For methanol, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. For PP, the cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. For PE, the spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. For pure benzene - styrene, pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. For asphalt, if the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. For rubber, both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. For urea, the 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. For soda ash, it is waiting for unexpected supply changes. For glass, the near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. For caustic soda, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For logs, the current price has limited trading value. For propylene, it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [38][40][42][44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][65][67][68][70][71][72][75][76][78][79][80]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. For oils, the short - term trend is wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information. For cotton, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, paying attention to downstream orders and hedging pressure. For sugar, the price will remain weak. For apples, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips. For red dates, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in December, the US employment market cooled, and the UK's CPI decline increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut. Domestically, policies are "seeking progress while maintaining stability," and in November, industrial production was resilient but domestic demand was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Key information includes China's fiscal revenue growth, the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, and the UK's CPI decline. The RMB is expected to be moderately strong in the short term, with potential risks [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day. The entry of the national team boosted market sentiment, but the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and small and medium - cap indexes may face pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose on Wednesday. The market sentiment improved, and it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can consider taking profits [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The night - session prices of platinum and palladium rose to new highs this year. The price is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and EU policies. In the long term, the bullish foundation for platinum remains, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose. Silver shows a long - squeeze phenomenon. The short - term focus is on callback risks, and the long - term view is bullish [11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded. The market sentiment was high, but the increase did not meet expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 93500 - 94000, and downstream enterprises can consider buying futures on dips for hedging [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable, alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices had support at the bottom and rebounded slightly at night. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and there may be entry opportunities [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The nickel ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is affected by export regulations. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices were strong. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, and the short - term view is not to short [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose sharply. The short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. Attention should be paid to supply shocks and demand declines [22][23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's trading logic is mainly technical. The long - term price of industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are ineffective [24][26]. - **Lead**: Lead prices were weakly volatile. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500, with strong support around 16500 [27]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rebounded slightly but faced pressure above. After the central economic work conference, the pricing of the steel market returned to fundamentals. Supply may slow down the reduction, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is in a de - stocking trend. The price is expected to fluctuate [28][30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. After macro events, the trading logic returned to fundamentals. Supply is relatively restrained, demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is supported by coking coal [32]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal price may be affected by winter restocking, and the coke price may continue to decline. If the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking [33][34]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. Supply is likely to continue to decline, demand is expected to decrease, and inventory is at a high level. There may be a short - term rebound [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices fluctuated, and offset paper prices were weakly volatile. The Crofton pulp mill's shutdown was postponed, and the pulp port inventory is still high. The short - term strategy for both is to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US - Venezuela tension may drive up short - term oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [42][43][44]. - **LPG**: The near - term is still supported. The supply increased slightly, demand remained stable, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. PX supply is expected to be high, PTA supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation in December, and the polyester demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [47][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. Supply has shown initial signs of support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [50][52]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. Factors such as commodity trends and unloading problems have affected the price, and the unloading problem will be resolved in the future [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. Supply may be relieved in January, and demand has some support [55][57]. - **PE**: The spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing, especially in the agricultural film sector [58][60]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply of pure benzene is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the demand is stable [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: If the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the US - Venezuela situation may affect the supply of heavy oil [62]. - **Rubber**: Both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Natural rubber is affected by supply - side disturbances and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental improvement, and the upward space is restricted [63][65][67]. - **Urea**: The 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. High supply pressures the price, but export policies relieve the pressure, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend [68][70]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for unexpected supply changes, glass's near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure and weakening demand [71][72][75]. - **Logs**: The current price has limited trading value. It is in a position - shifting market, with the inventory decreasing and the spot price falling [76][78]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a shock pattern. The supply is relatively loose, demand is stable, and it is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. The rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [81][82]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is wide - range shock. Palm oil is affected by supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by global supply. Attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information [82][83]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The downstream shows resilience, but short - term pressure exists. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and hedging pressure [84]. - **Sugar**: The price will remain weak. Global sugar production and trade data affect the price, such as India's high production and Brazil's high exports [85][86]. - **Apples**: The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Consumption is sluggish, and inventory is slowly decreasing [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term downward space may be limited. New - season production is slightly reduced, and new - product supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [89].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone. The US employment market is cooling, and the domestic economy continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" policy. The RMB exchange rate is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, but there are potential risks. The stock index is in a shrinking adjustment, and the bond market can be bullish in the medium - term [2][5][6]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should control incremental and revitalize inventory [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and it is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, supported by policies, exchange rate characteristics, and internal - external environment. However, there are potential risks such as high long - positions in the USD/HKD market and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike [3][5][6]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index fell collectively, and the US non - farm data had limited impact. The market is expected to stabilize and rebound after continuous adjustments, but the upward drive is insufficient [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, but there is no need to be pessimistic from the fundamental perspective. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term trading should control positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a long - short tug - of war, with positive factors such as spot price increases and seasonal cargo volume, and negative factors such as the expectation of resuming navigation and future supply - demand pressure [9][10][11]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The prices of precious metals are expected to rise in the medium - long term, with short - term high - level fluctuations. Base metals have different trends, and energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitics [15][18][20]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose at night, and are expected to be boosted by central bank gold purchases and investment demand in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to the internal - external price difference [13][14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices were in high - level fluctuations. The US non - farm data had limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected, and it is bullish in the medium - long term [16][17][18]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price was in high - level adjustment. The non - farm data had little impact, and it is necessary to wait for the recovery of trading volume to determine the trend [19][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in shock - strengthening, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in shock - strengthening. The macro - drive is suspended, and the fundamentals are different [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The downstream receiving capacity is limited, and it is in weak operation, with short - term wide - range fluctuations expected [28]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The prices fell sharply due to market sentiment. The fundamentals of nickel are complex, and stainless steel is affected by export regulations [28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was in technical adjustment, and it is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with opportunities to enter the market on dips [30][31]. - **Lead**: The price was under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term, with strong support around 16500 [36]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Paper Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price fell, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply [46][47][48]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year, and it is expected to be in weak fluctuations in the short term, with attention paid to EIA inventory [49][50]. - **LPG**: The price was stable while crude oil fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious upward drive, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. The downstream polyester demand is expected to be high in the short term, but the negative feedback will be transmitted in December [53][54][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply negative feedback appears, and the price is under pressure in the long - term, with the short - term valuation fluctuating with the macro - sentiment [56][57]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse spread strategy [59]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and the supply pressure may be relieved in January, with potential for a short - term rebound [60][61][62]. - **PE**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the upward space is limited. The PP supply - demand expectation is better than that of PE [63][64]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to rise [67][68]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is limited, and it is in shock in the short term, with attention paid to the winter - storage policy [69][70]. - **Rubber**: The price center is moving up in shock. Natural rubber is in a wide - range shock, and synthetic rubber is running strongly with limited upward space [73][74]. - **Urea**: The market is in the range between fundamentals and policies, with the 01 contract expected to continue to fluctuate [75][76]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for new supply variables, glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory, and caustic soda is expected to be in weak fluctuations [76][77][78]. - **Log**: The price is in low - level shock, with high uncertainty in trading [79][80][81]. - **Propylene**: It is in shock, with a loose supply situation and unchanged supply - demand pressure [81][82]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The supply - demand situations of different agricultural products vary, with some having short - term pressure and others having long - term potential [84][86][89]. Summary by Directory - **Hogs**: The supply - demand in the peak season needs verification. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive spread in the short term. Wait for low - buying opportunities [85][86]. - **Oils**: The delay of the US biofuel policy makes the oils market weak [87]. - **Cotton**: The domestic downstream shows resilience, and it may rise in the medium - long term, with short - term pressure. Consider buying on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price is in weak decline [90][91]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. Be cautious with long positions [92]. - **Apples**: The price stops falling and rebounds. Consider buying on dips [93][94]. - **Jujubes**: The new jujube harvest is almost completed. The short - term price may have limited downward space, and pay attention to downstream pre - holiday procurement [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.53% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Black Index rose by 0.26%, while the rest of the sectors declined. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline at -1.06%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest decline at -0.42% [1][3]. - Among the theme indices, the Coal - Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.62%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.48%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.13%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.2% [1][3]. - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the PVC index had the largest increase of 1.88%, and the Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil index had the largest decline of -2.86% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Market Data | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | Daily Change % | Annualized Return Rate | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2529.16 | 2542.74 | -13.58 | -0.53% | 1.05% | 11.51% | 0.09 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1722.66 | 1741.12 | -18.46 | -1.06% | 66.84% | 18.76% | 3.56 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3420.43 | 3436.31 | -15.88 | -0.46% | -8.91% | 13.78% | -0.65 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6523.73 | 6551.05 | -27.32 | -0.42% | 2.91% | 11.93% | 0.24 | | Energy - Chemical Index NHECI | 1491.58 | 1498.05 | -6.47 | -0.43% | -17.09% | 16.57% | -1.03 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1787.44 | 1805.10 | -17.66 | -0.98% | 8.65% | 12.51% | 0.69 | | Black Index NHFI | 2461.22 | 2454.86 | 6.36 | 0.26% | -8.20% | 16.39% | -0.50 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1036.30 | 1040.72 | -4.41 | -0.42% | -2.91% | 8.17% | -0.36 | | Another Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1144.79 | 1150.96 | -6.17 | -0.54% | -2.26% | 9.36% | -0.24 | | Energy Index NHEI | 950.80 | 961.70 | -10.91 | -1.13% | -2.98% | 17.43% | -0.17 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 858.91 | 860.61 | -1.70 | -0.20% | -2.08% | 9.79% | -0.21 | | Coal - Chemical Index NHCCI | 891.34 | 885.81 | 5.52 | 0.62% | -3.44% | 10.79% | -0.32 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 1031.06 | 1026.11 | 4.95 | 0.48% | -1.27% | 15.12% | -0.08 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 676.61 | 673.38 | 3.23 | 0.48% | -2.92% | 11.81% | -0.25 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1208.54 | 1214.24 | -5.70 | -0.47% | -1.42% | 7.18% | -0.20 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 901.38 | 909.49 | -8.12 | -0.89% | -0.01% | 7.52% | 0.00 | [3] 3.2 Notes on Data Calculation - The daily change is calculated as the ratio of the closing price of the current day to that of the previous trading day. The contribution degree is the product of the daily change and the weight [9]. - The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates the price difference when the commodity contract is rolled over, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [9]. - The calculation method of the contribution degree used in the text is: the daily change of a certain variety / ∑|the daily change of each variety|. Red data bars represent the varieties that rose on the day, and blue data bars represent the varieties that fell on the day [9]. 3.3 Single - variety Index Information - In the agricultural products sector, some varieties' price changes are as follows: soybean oil - 1.45%, rapeseed 0.15%, rapeseed meal 0.77%, live pigs 0.40%, etc. [8] - In the energy - chemical sector, some varieties' price changes are as follows: synthetic ammonia 1.88%, coal 0.24%, LPG 0.37%, hydrocarbons - 0.60%, crude oil - 1.53%, etc. [13] - In the black sector, some varieties' price changes are shown in the black - sector part of the document, but specific data for some varieties are not fully presented [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils and fats. The market is in wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the market and further news on Indonesia's B50. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8300 yuan/ton. As the pressure in palm oil - producing areas gradually weakens, its cost - effectiveness increases, and we should wait for future improvement opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly, but the inventory reached the highest level in 6 years. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 plan persists, and there is a lack of upward momentum in quotes [1]. - The US biodiesel policy remains unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed, and the role of future policies in boosting the market is questionable [1]. - There is no positive trend in China - Canada talks, and there is an expectation of tight supply of rapeseed products in the future [1]. - Although the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory, with relatively limited pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range volatile adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term [16]. - **Price Range**: The P2605 fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton, Y2605 in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, and OI2605 in the range of 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Adopt a short - term weak unilateral thinking. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current basis is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads are expected to weaken [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean oil is forecasted to be in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as various spreads [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1140,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and up 180,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil was 340,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and down 80,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil was 650,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [24]. - **Negative Information**: The US EPA is expected to issue the final rule on the renewable fuel standard in the first quarter of 2026. The palm oil export volume of Malaysia from December 1 - 15 decreased compared with the same period last month [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil and fat transactions have been stable, with soybean oil transactions increasing month - on - month, and rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions decreasing slightly month - on - month [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the re - allocation decision of US small refinery exemptions, progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, and weather information in producing areas [28][29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The overall oil and fat market was weak this week. There was a lack of upward driving force, and the US biodiesel policy was postponed again. The demand in the global oil and fat market was in doubt. The capital trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were all bearish [30]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to be weak this week [32]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil and fat market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure, which became shallower this week [32]. - **Spread Structure**: The spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm all rebounded slightly this week [52]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was weakly volatile this week. There was a lack of positive factors, and the MPOB report on palm oil was bearish. The US energy policy guidance was unclear, and the CBOT soybean oil management fund's position decreased slightly [54]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread rebounded slightly this week, and the cost of producing biofuel from palm oil increased slightly. The BOHO spread also rebounded slightly, but the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a recent low [60]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit has changed slightly, and domestic buying has started after the basis turned positive [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not alleviated [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: With the basis turning positive, domestic buyers have started to place orders, but the transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. In the year - end production - reduction stage in producing areas, the willingness to sell is limited, and domestic orders are not expected to increase [66]. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of raw materials in December will decline, and the crushing volume may decrease, but the overall supply is still relatively loose [66]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory will continue to decrease. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the future supply will still be tight [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils and fats, the overall terminal demand remains weak [68].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also intensifying, increasing the probability of rainfall in Indonesia and its surrounding areas [1]. - High - latitude rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the dry season, which will affect rubber production [1]. - Weather conditions such as rainfall and temperature in various rubber - producing areas around the world will impact the progress of rubber tapping and production. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - The Nino3.4 index is - 0.7 (- 0.2), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is + 2.7. The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and it may last until December 2025 to February 2026 and transition to ENSO neutral from January to March 2026 [1]. - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is - 0.63 (- 0.17), indicating a strengthening of the IOD and an increased probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be in Phase 1, with little effect on the growth of rain clouds in Indonesia, and it will develop towards the East Indian Ocean by the end of the month [1]. - **China's Producing Areas** - Yunnan: Affected by cooling, it is approaching full suspension of tapping. Output in the northern part will be limited by low - temperature, and the southern part will have a slight temperature increase but limited output [1]. - Hainan: The temperature is currently suitable. There has been sporadic rainfall recently, and the dry content of glue has decreased. Tapping is expected to gradually stop in late December. There will be less rain and a temperature increase in the next week, followed by another temperature drop [1]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas** - Thailand: The north and northeast have less rain, and the south has significantly less rain in December compared to November, with little impact on raw material output. The north and northeast will cool down at the end of the month, and some areas may gradually stop tapping [2]. - Vietnam: Precipitation in November was higher than average. The south will have less rain, and the central - east will be slightly affected by showers [2]. - Cambodia: Precipitation in November increased year - on - year. There will be less rain in the future, but the temperature drop at the end of the month may reduce output [2]. - Myanmar: There will be less rain in the future, and the surface soil moisture in the south is low. There will be a significant temperature drop at the end of the month [2]. - Laos: It is currently in the peak - production period. Less rain and a temperature drop will slightly affect output [2]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas** - Indonesia: The La Nina phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole are strengthening, increasing the probability of rainfall. The first half - week will have mostly cloudy to light rain, with heavy rain possible in some areas, and the rain will weaken in the second half - week. The impact of rainfall on tapping in December is moderate, weaker than in November [4]. - Malaysia: The Malay Peninsula is in the peak of the rainy season. Rainfall from November to early December affected tapping, and the rain has weakened in the past two weeks but still has an impact [4]. - Philippines: Rainfall in November was slightly higher than the historical average. Rainfall in December decreased, and the temperature is suitable for tapping [4]. - **South Asian Producing Areas** - India: There was intermittent rain in southern Kerala last week due to a tropical depression. Areas in the southwest and northeast had little rain. Low temperatures in Maharashtra and the northeast may lead to a gradual stop of tapping [5]. - Sri Lanka: Floods have receded, and production is recovering [5]. - **West African Producing Areas** - Cote d'Ivoire: It is gradually emerging from the secondary rainy season. Cumulative precipitation in November increased year - on - year and is approaching normal levels. There were local showers in the past week, slightly affecting tapping [5]. 3.2 Summary of Rainfall Data in Producing Areas - The report provides monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for the current and next weeks in major natural rubber producing areas. For example, in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, the monthly cumulative precipitation is 0.1 mm, a year - on - year decrease of 98% [6]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - There is a tropical depression disturbance in western Indonesia, which may increase rainfall in Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula [8]. - The weather in southern Thailand has improved, and the impact of floods has subsided. Short - term heavy rainfall in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra in Indonesia requires attention to secondary disaster risks [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - The report presents precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomalies, temperature comparisons, and average wind speed for each major rubber - producing area [11][17][38]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - About 80% of the world's natural rubber is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam. Thailand accounts for about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. Cote d'Ivoire accounts for over 10% of the output [198]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber Trees and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are sensitive to weather and disasters before maturity, which can affect the tree's latex - producing ability. Short - term supply is affected by weather, and long - term supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure [207]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - Global natural rubber supply is seasonal, with a high - production period from September to November and a low - production period from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude, with higher - latitude areas having earlier tapping starts and shorter tapping periods [209].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone than expected. The subsequent non - farm data will affect the direction of interest rate cut expectations. Domestically, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task for next year [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, with low - volatility trading. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market sentiment is weak, but the downside of the index is limited. The container shipping market for the European route will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [5][8][9]. - For commodities, precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - long term and volatile in the short term; base metals have different trends, such as copper showing an internal - weak and external - strong pattern, aluminum being oscillatingly strong, and zinc having short - term wide - range fluctuations; energy and chemical products also have diverse trends, like crude oil being weakly volatile, and LPG being oscillating; agricultural products have different outlooks, for example, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification, and the oil market is weakly operating [16][19][20][23][43][44][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the release of the US non - farm payroll report. The Fed's interest rate cut decision and domestic economic data, such as the industrial production in November showing resilience while consumption and investment facing pressure, are important factors affecting the market [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It continues the callback trend. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on the previous trading day. In the short term, it is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, supported by policy, seasonal factors, and the external environment [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index closed down, and the trading volume decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [6][8]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market closed down on Monday, and the market sentiment is weak. The economic data in November shows weakening economic momentum, but the market focus is not on the fundamentals. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand has not yet formed a clear impact on the bond market [8][9]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase is less than expected. The market is in a tug - of - war between the support of spot prices and the expectation of future capacity release. In the short term, the market will continue this situation, and different contracts need to pay attention to different factors [9][10][12] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose sharply at night. The Fed's expected loose monetary policy and the EU's relaxation of the fuel - vehicle ban are beneficial to the demand for platinum and palladium in automobile catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external price difference of platinum [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a high - level shock. Focus on the release of the US non - farm payroll report tonight. In the short term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and bullish in the medium - long term [17][18][19]. - **Copper**: The fixed - asset investment growth rate declined, and the copper price shows an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Pay attention to the high - level adjustment risk and support at 90,000 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The trends are different. Aluminum is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the medium term; alumina is weakly operating; cast aluminum alloy is oscillatingly strong [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in short - term wide - range fluctuations. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show tight supply at the mine end and support from inventory de - stocking [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is in a technical correction. Although the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected to enter a wide - range shock stage [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillatingly strong. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium - long term, it has a long - value support from the demand side [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space in the medium - long term; polysilicon is in a wait - and - see situation, with the trading logic mainly based on technical aspects [29][30]. - **Lead**: The inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The price is in a weak shock, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [31]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillatingly weak. After the central economic work conference, the market pricing returns to the fundamentals. The supply may slow down in the reduction, and the demand is seasonally weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [32][33]. - **Iron Ore**: The price first fell and then rose. The trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is expected to have limited downside space [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are in a weak consolidation. The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand is weak, resulting in a marginal oversupply. The supply of coke may increase in the future, and the price is likely to continue to decline [36][37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They face a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with limited upside space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a high level [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is in an oscillating state. The high - price pulp has poor sales, and the demand is weak. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply factors. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. It is weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel [42][43]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The external market is in an oscillating pattern, and the domestic spot is relatively strong [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driving force, and it fluctuates with the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for polyester will decline in the later stage. The PTA processing fee has limited repair space [46][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The supply negative feedback appears, but it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand is declining, and the supply has some support signals. The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [50][52]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse - spread view. The 1 - 5 spread shows a positive - spread pattern, mainly due to market trends and unloading problems. It is recommended to add positions in the 1 - 5 reverse - spread [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side still has strong support. The supply pressure may be alleviated in January, and the demand has some support. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot situation [56][57]. - **PE**: Pay attention to the spot situation. It shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and it is difficult to form strong support [58][59]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene's inventory decreased on Monday. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [60][61][62]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is rising. The supply is tightening, and the cracking has an upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom - space is limited, and the winter - storage policies are gradually introduced. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is weakening, and the cost side is weakly oscillating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [65][66]. - **Rubber**: The macro atmosphere is warm, but the fundamental benefits are limited. The supply of natural rubber is slightly tightened, the downstream demand support is weakening, and the inventory is still accumulating. It is expected to oscillate [68][70]. - **Urea**: The futures and spot prices tend to converge. The supply is high, and the price is under pressure, but the export policy weakens the downward driving force. It is expected to oscillate [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They fluctuate at a low level. Soda ash has an increasing over - supply expectation, and glass may have some production - line cold - repairs in the future. Caustic soda has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline weakly [73][74][75]. - **Log**: The short positions left the market intensively, and the price rose and then fell. The price is in a game state, with limited trading value [76][78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is weakly oscillating. The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is not strong. It will remain in a weak state before more maintenance [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply - demand situation in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an over - supply pressure, and the far - month is stronger [82][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The customs - clearance time is extended. The import soybean buying sentiment is reduced, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. The external market of soybeans is weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive - spread trend in the short term [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: They are weakly operating. Palm oil is under supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by market news. The short - term price center of gravity is moving down [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to downstream orders. The domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight in the long term, and the price is relatively strong, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price hits a new low. Affected by the high - supply situation in major producing countries, the sugar price is in a weak state [90][91][92]. - **Eggs**: The chicken culling is in progress. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, but there is a turning point. It is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [93]. - **Apples**: The price has a large retracement. The consumption is not smooth, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips [94][95]. - **Jujubes**: The new - product supply is sufficient. The new - season jujube production is expected to decrease slightly, and the short - term price has limited downside space. Pay attention to downstream pre - holiday purchases [96][97].

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 天然橡胶上周泰国南部和越南东南部天气扰动消退减弱浅色系支撑，而印尼、马来西亚持续降雨引发局地洪 涝，叠加下游刚性需求，深色胶支撑较强，周内持续反弹，深浅色价差有回缩。目前天然橡胶库存尤其是青 岛保税区库存维持累库，老全乳去库，深浅库存比持续走高。汽车配套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补 贴和新能源补贴退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承压；轮胎产销和出口环比下降，下游库 存压力仍高，交投情绪较弱。长期固定资产投资和房地产投资持续下滑，内需增长承压且出口阻碍仍存，长 期需求预期偏弱。美联储12月如预期降息25基点，美联储主席表态和美国就业疲软共同利好后续降息预期； 国内货币政策稳定续做，市场流动性担忧较小；中央经济工作会议、全国发展和改革工作会议召开，明确促 投资、扩内需、稳财政以及"反内卷"等重要内容，市场氛围偏暖有助橡胶估值抬升。橡胶系随情绪维持区间震 荡，后市预计维持宽幅震荡格局，其中浅色胶相对偏强看待。 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——美联储降息与国内会议召开助暖宏观，印尼天气扰动带来支撑 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄 ...

南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产地降雨分布不均，部分地区或有偏干旱困扰 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月15日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，目前对棕榈油产 地影响有限。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨依旧分部不均匀，同时各产区降雨量都有所下降。降雨依然集中东马地区及 印尼的西部大部分地区和卡里曼丹岛中部，卡里曼丹岛土壤湿度整体有所提升。印尼的南苏门答腊岛和北苏 门答腊岛、廖内地区土壤湿度落后于历年同期；马来半岛降雨量整体落后于近20年均值水平，土壤湿度也较 为落后；东马虽然降雨也不多，但土壤湿度保持较好，后续需要留意马来半岛的干旱问题。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，但需关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年产量。 厄尔尼诺指数 厄尔尼诺指数（NOAA） 15/12 17/12 19/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of recent weather conditions on sugarcane production in major sugar - producing regions around the world, indicating that current weather in most areas is conducive to sugarcane growth, sugar accumulation, harvesting, and pressing [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China - In December, southern China enters the concentrated sugar - cane crushing period. Sunny weather is beneficial for sugar accumulation and cane cutting and transportation. As of November 27, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 36 less than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons year - on - year. The current dry weather in Guangxi and Yunnan is favorable for sugar accumulation [1] - In Guangxi and Yunnan, recent low precipitation and suitable temperatures are conducive to sugar accumulation in sugarcane [15][19] 3.2 Brazil - The central - southern region of Brazil is in the late stage of sugar - cane crushing. It requires sunny and less - rainy weather, large diurnal temperature differences for sugar conversion and accumulation. Affected by La Nina, overall precipitation is low, but there has been some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered to some extent. However, the current low soil moisture is not conducive to the jointing of new - season sugarcane [2] - The central - southern sugar - cane producing area in Brazil has had some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered [34] 3.3 India - Indian sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The monsoon rains have basically subsided, and the overall sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation, cutting, and pressing [3] - After the monsoon, the recent sunny weather in India is favorable for sugar - cane pressing [42] 3.4 Thailand - Thai sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The rainy season has passed, and the dry and sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation [5] - The current sunny weather in Thailand is beneficial for sugar - cane sugar accumulation [53] 3.5 Global Sugar - Cane Production and Distribution - China's southern sugar - cane planting area is relatively stable, while northern beet planting area is determined by farmers based on planting income. Guangxi is China's largest sugar - producing area, accounting for over 60%, and Chongzuo is the sugar capital, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - cane area [65] - Brazil has the largest sugar - cane planting area globally. About 50% - 60% of its sugar - cane is used for ethanol production, and its sugar output depends on the profit ratio of sugar and ethanol. It is also the world's largest sugar exporter, with exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its output [67] - India is the world's second - largest sugar producer, and its output is highly variable due to natural factors. It is also the world's largest sugar consumer, and its output determines whether it exports sugar [67] - Thailand is usually the world's second - largest sugar exporter after Brazil. Although its output is around 10 million tons, its exports account for 70% - 85% of its output [67] 3.6 Sugar - Cane Growth Cycle and Conditions - The growth cycle of sugar - cane includes germination, seedling, tillering - elongation, maturity, and harvest stages, each with specific temperature, precipitation, and light requirements [60]