1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current global macro - economy is in a pattern of stagflation pressure, institutional disputes, and geopolitical tensions. Overseas, the large - scale liquidity released during the crisis response stage has led to a stagflation situation. The Fed's interest - rate decisions have been involved in political games, and the Trump tariff issue has increased global trade uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions may also disrupt cross - border trade. Domestically, China's exports showed strong resilience in 2025, and the export situation in 2026 may be optimistic [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate before the Spring Festival. The appreciation is supported by the acceleration of China's foreign trade recovery, but its rhythm will be affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [4]. - The stock index market may experience a short - term adjustment due to the regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, but the upward trend is expected to resume after the adjustment [5]. - The possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut has decreased for treasury bonds. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited [6][7]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [11]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate futures are expected to enter a high - level volatile state, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by factors such as export tax rebates and inventory [13][16]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in a high - level consolidation state, and aluminum prices may be volatile at a high level in the short term, while other non - ferrous metals also have different trends and investment suggestions [17][22]. - For oilseeds and fats, the external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction [28][30]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure. Asphalt prices may be relatively strong in the short term [31][36]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term callback risks, while gold and silver are in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall [37][43]. - In the chemical market, the pulp and offset paper markets are relatively stable, and LPG, PTA - PX, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [46][55]. - In the black market, steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials, and iron ore, coking coal, coke, and ferroalloys also have their own market characteristics [64][68]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, cotton prices may have short - term callback risks, sugar prices are under pressure in an oscillating state, and apples, dates, and logs have different market trends [69][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. The country's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In December, exports of rare earths increased by 32% year - on - year. Overseas, there are issues such as the Fed's interest - rate decision disputes, the Trump tariff case, and geopolitical tensions [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate before the Spring Festival. China's foreign trade recovery in December was significant, with exports in US dollars increasing by 6.6% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7%. The US dollar index is in a high - level volatile state, and the RMB's appreciation is also affected by the central bank's regulation [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% aims to cool down the over - heated market. The short - term market may fluctuate, but the upward trend is expected to resume [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts are less likely. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited due to the stock market's upward trend [6][7]. - **Container Shipping for European Routes**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. Spot freight rates are declining, and there are both negative and positive factors. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [9][11]. 3.2 New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has significantly corrected. The spot market is in a "not - off - season" state, but the futures price may enter a high - level volatile state. Short - term investors are advised to realize profits and wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices are in a wide - range volatile state. The demand for photovoltaic exports may drive short - term demand, but polysilicon inventory is high. In the medium term, polysilicon prices may decline, while industrial silicon has support at low prices [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium has increased, but the transaction is stagnant. The futures price is in a high - level consolidation state. It is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan, and enterprises can consider constructing option strategies [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price may be volatile at a high level in the short term due to factors such as the Trump tariff and the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to rise [22]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, lead, etc. have their own market characteristics, such as zinc being in a strong and volatile state, and tin having upward momentum [23][26]. 3.4 Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The soybean meal market may be strong in the near term and weak in the far term, and the rapeseed meal market is in a state of weak supply and demand [28][29]. - **Fats**: The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction due to the Indonesian government's decision not to implement B50 this year. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets are affected by factors such as supply and policy [30]. 3.5 Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions caused by US sanctions. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to improved supply [31][33]. - **Asphalt**: The price may be relatively strong in the short term due to factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical tensions. The market is in a state of limited upward and downward space [34][36]. 3.6 Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustments, and the Fed's monetary policy. There may be short - term callback risks, but the long - term bullish foundation remains [37][40]. - **Gold and Silver**: The price of silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has fallen below 50. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall, but short - term fluctuations may increase [41][43]. 3.7 Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The market is relatively stable, and the current situation is slightly bearish. It is advisable to wait and see and avoid chasing short positions [46]. - **LPG**: The price is supported by geopolitical factors, but the increase in PDH maintenance has a negative impact on the market. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [48]. - **PTA - PX**: The demand feedback is intensifying, and the short - term upward momentum is weakening. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, but the PTA processing fee increase space is limited [48][51]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand feedback is negative, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The price may be affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [51][53]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is relieved in the short term due to increased device maintenance. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of device maintenance plans [54][55]. - **PE**: The spot price is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the long term, and the demand may decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene market is in an oversupply situation and follows the cost - end fluctuations. The styrene market is strong due to factors such as exports and macro - news, and attention should be paid to export increments and supply returns [57][58]. - **Urea**: The price may rise in the first half of 2026 due to the agricultural demand peak season, but there may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to hold long positions [59][60]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and the price is restricted by high - level inventory. Glass has high - level inventory in the middle - stream, and the spot pressure exists. Caustic soda is in a state of weak reality, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [60][62]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise due to cost factors and device maintenance. Attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts on the cost - end and PDH device changes [62][63]. 3.8 Black - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar demand is seasonally weak, and the supply of steel products is increasing. The prices of steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials [64][65]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to support continuous large - scale production increases. It is not recommended to chase long positions at the current position [65][66]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading has improved, and the basis has strengthened. The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [66][67]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply pressure is high, but the prices are supported by the cost - end. Silicon iron is starting to accumulate inventory, and silicon manganese has a large inventory base [67][68]. 3.9 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The price is in a high - level consolidation state. There may be short - term callback risks due to factors such as the squeeze on domestic cotton consumption by imported yarn. The callback amplitude may be limited [69][70]. - **Sugar**: The price is under pressure in an oscillating state. Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [70][72]. - **Apple**: The price is rising strongly. The market has a problem of shortage of delivery products, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation [73][74]. - **Date**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price may be under pressure in the long term [74][75]. - **Log**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the short - term bottom is confirmed. The price may have a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to spot price changes and post - holiday demand [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. The report seems to be a comprehensive data - driven analysis of the lithium carbonate market, presenting various data on futures, spot, basis, and cost - profit aspects. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 68.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.9% [3] - The closing price of the main contract is 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan (3.02%) daily and up 19,640 yuan (13.80%) weekly. The trading volume is 589,019 lots, down 19,158 lots (3.15%) daily and up 168,612 lots (40.11%) weekly. The open interest is 452,583 lots, down 7,698 lots (1.67%) daily and down 53,937 lots (10.65%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted - index contract is 162,418 yuan/ton, down 5,025 yuan (3.00%) daily and up 19,892 yuan (13.96%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,086,844 lots, down 95,128 lots (8.05%) daily and up 349,719 lots (47.44%) weekly. The open interest is 886,318 lots, down 15,033 lots (1.67%) daily and down 77,914 lots (8.08%) weekly [4] - The price differences between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609, LC2607 - LC2609) have different daily and weekly changes [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,898 lots, up 928 lots (3.57%) daily and up 3,757 lots (16.24%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore segment, prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene from different sources have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of 2 - 2.5% lithium mica is 4,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.81%) daily [22] - In the lithium salt segment, prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.24%) daily [22] - For cell materials, prices of some materials increased while others remained unchanged. For example, the price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate is 57,190 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan (1.69%) daily [23] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.978, up 0.0033 (0.05%) [23] - The differences between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and domestic prices also have corresponding daily and weekly changes [26] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the near - month contract of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of historical charts [29][30] - Different lithium carbonate brands have different basis quotes for the LC2601 contract, with some having zero daily changes and some having non - zero changes [31] - The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,898 lots, up 928 lots. Different storage locations have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35] 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - The production profits of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) are presented in historical charts [37] - The production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticizing method and smelting method are presented in historical charts [37] - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in historical charts [38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 65.3% and a historical percentile of 93.2% over 3 years [3] - The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan (7.00%) daily and 29,040 yuan (21.05%) weekly. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, up 539,686 lots (787.97%) daily and 303,940 lots (99.90%) weekly. The open interest was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots (-9.16%) daily and 74,718 lots (-13.97%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted index contract was 167,443 yuan/ton, up 10,934 yuan (6.99%) daily and 29,277 yuan (21.19%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,181,972 lots, up 1,053,672 lots (821.26%) daily and 646,397 lots (120.69%) weekly. The open interest was 901,351 lots, down 93,555 lots (-9.40%) daily and 95,114 lots (-9.55%) weekly [4] - The LC2605 - LC2607 spread was -620 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (-36.73%) daily and 60 yuan (-8.82%) weekly. The LC2605 - LC2609 spread was -2,220 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan (-5.93%) daily and down 140 yuan (6.73%) weekly. The LC2607 - LC2609 spread was -1,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (15.94%) daily and 200 yuan (14.29%) weekly [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,970 lots, up 610 lots (2.41%) daily and 5,689 lots (28.05%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium ore prices showed significant increases. For example, lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) rose to 4,950 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan (6.68%); lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) rose to 8,625 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (2.68%) [20] - Lithium salt prices also increased. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose to 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan (5.05%); battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan (4.93%) [20] - Other products like industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and various cathode materials and electrolytes also had price increases to varying degrees [20][22] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the main continuous contract, near - month contract, and brand - based basis of lithium carbonate are presented, along with the basis quotes of different companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc. [29][30][31] - The total number of warehouse receipts was 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Some warehouses had changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Rongjie Group increasing by 230 lots and Shanghai Guochu decreasing by 13 lots [35] 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene and lithium mica), the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods, the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented [37][38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil origin inventory pressure and demand growth, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the unclear result of China - Canada talks, and the sufficient overall supply of domestic three major oils [1][2]. - Under the suppression of the weak domestic reality, the market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the oil market, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, short - term trading should be treated within a range. Palm oil may remain relatively strong in the sector [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm Oil**: In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory was 3.051 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase. The inventory is at a seven - year high, but it is expected to improve after the production reduction season. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, supporting long - term demand but with limited short - term benefits [1]. - **US Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain. It is expected that the final result will be announced in the first quarter of 2026, and the result is likely to continue the June proposal, which is beneficial to US soybean oil [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The result of China - Canada talks is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is good, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of canola oil will increase. Canadian Prime Minister is expected to visit China from January 14 - 17, 2026 [2]. - **Domestic Oil Supply**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined but the overall supply is still sufficient. Canola oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for palm oil to rise in the medium term [19]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat P05 and Y05 as single - side rebound trends within the range, pay attention to whether the upper pressure level can be broken. Observe the weakening trend of the canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads for arbitrage [19]. - **Strategy for Basis, Calendar Spread and Hedging Arbitrage**: The current basis should be viewed with a short - term weak oscillation idea. There is no calendar spread strategy for now. The canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads should be treated as weakening [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Oil Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, canola oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800. The current volatility and historical percentile of volatility are also provided [23]. - **Oil Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory situations and concerns, including short - selling and long - buying soybean oil futures with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Palm Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of palm oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international soybean - palm spreads [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of soybean oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as BOHO and domestic soybean - palm spreads [24]. - **Canola Oil**: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of canola oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as the domestic soybean - canola spread [25]. - **Oil Calendar and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides price and price change data of calendar spreads and cross - variety spreads of the three major oils [25][26]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons. The price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10, 2026 increased by 17.65% compared with the same period last month [27]. - **Negative Information**: The US corn production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and the ending inventory will increase. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month. As of December 1, 2025, the US soybean inventory increased by 6% year - on - year, and the consumption decreased by 20% year - on - year [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable and weak, with relatively high soybean oil transactions, sporadic palm oil transactions, and no canola oil transactions for now [29]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - **Domestic High - Frequency Weekly Inventory Data** [37]. - **High - Frequency Production and Export Data of Malaysian Palm Oil** [37]. - **Origin Weather Information** [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Single - Side Trend**: The domestic oil market showed some differentiation this week. Soybean oil and palm oil rebounded within the range, while canola oil maintained an overall oscillation. The lack of trend - driving factors and the unclear US biodiesel policy limit the demand expansion of the global oil market. Attention should be paid to US bioenergy policy information and origin destocking progress [33]. - **Capital Movement**: The changes in the positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil are relatively small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in palm oil and soybean oil, while canola oil reduced short positions. Foreign - funded seats reduced short positions and increased long positions in soybean oil and canola oil, and slightly reduced long positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil was relatively steep. The Y5 - 9 spread of soybean oil increased due to the single - side rebound of Y05. The OI5 - 9 spread of canola oil was mainly in consolidation [36]. - **Basis Structure**: The main basis of oils continued to grind at the bottom this week. The basis of soybean and palm oils remained weakly operating, while the basis of canola oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of expectations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, the main basis of canola oil gradually weakened [44]. - **Spread Structure**: Due to the lack of further information, cross - variety spreads oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production reduction season and starts destocking, the canola - palm spread is still expected to weaken [56]. - **Foreign Market** - **Foreign Market Trend**: The foreign market mainly rebounded this week. Palm oil sentiment turned optimistic due to Malaysia's entry into the production reduction season, better - than - expected export boost, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [59]. - **Capital Position**: The net position ratio of managed funds has declined from a high level, and the bullish sentiment has cooled down. Commercial positions such as producers and traders have a relatively high net short position ratio, which limits the further upward space of prices [61]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread decreased slightly this week, but the cost of palm oil - based biofuel remains high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a recent low level due to sufficient global soybean supply [67]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which limits long - term ship purchases [69]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export improvement is expected to promote the destocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in January 2026, and exports are optimistically boosted. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [71]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production reduction stage, and the willingness to destock and sell is limited. The import profit in China is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low. Wait for the rebound after the origin's inventory pressure eases [73]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, it is the seasonal low point of soybean arrival, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Pay attention to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [73]. - **Canola Oil**: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited, and inventory continues to be destocked. The global rapeseed harvest is good, the cost price is weak, and the import of Russian canola oil increases. If China - Canada relations improve, domestic canola oil supply will further increase [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Short - term inventory of the three major oils is still relatively high year - on - year, and downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak. The market is expected to turn dull after the festival [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a detailed analysis of the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including sowing progress, growth stages, and potential impacts of rainfall on yields [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - Overall sowing progress reached 98.2%, with most crops in the reproductive growth stage, 32.8% in the flowering stage, 41.3% in the filling stage, 23.1% mature, and 0.53% in the harvest stage, leading last year by 0.05% [1][16] - In Mato Grosso state, the harvest has begun with a progress of 1.98%, faster than last year's 0.7% and the five - year average of 1.09%, but less rainfall may affect unharvested yields [1][16] - In Mato Grosso do Sul state, crop physiological development is normal, but effective rainfall is needed in the east and southwest. 85.7% of the farmland is in "good" condition [1][16] - In Goias state, sowing is completed, climate conditions are favorable, and areas sown at the beginning of the sowing window have entered the maturity stage, with harvesting即将开始 [1][16] - In Minas Gerais state, regular rainfall and temperature differences are beneficial for oilseed crop growth, but hail in the northwest damaged some crops [1][17] - In Rio Grande do Sul state, rainfall maintains good soil moisture, but crops sown in low - lying areas show signs of rust, partially affecting yields [1][17] - In Parana state, the western part has started harvesting, and rainfall is beneficial for crop growth [1][17] Argentina - Soybean sowing progress increased 6.3% week - on - week to 88.3%, about 10% behind the previous year [2][37] - Nearly 100% of the crops in the current production area are in excellent or good condition, and 99% have suitable moisture conditions [2][37] - 10% of the first - sown soybean area has entered the flowering stage, and 40% are gradually entering the key reproductive water - demanding period. The second - season soybean sowing area is 84% complete, mostly in the vegetative growth stage [2][37] - Less rainfall in the next two weeks may affect soil moisture in some areas [2] International Soybean Annual Focus Points - Different months have different focus points, such as US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [56] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Different growth stages (planting, flowering, growing, harvesting) have different temperature, moisture requirements, and disaster risks [64]

——巴西中南部降水季节性走弱 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月12日 本周重要气象提示——巴西 当前巴西中南部进入甘蔗的压榨后期，对于当前需要收获的甘蔗而言，需要晴朗少雨的天气，有利于机 械收割，减少甘蔗含水量，提升蔗糖分。需要昼夜温差大，有利于甘蔗糖分转化与累积。 巴西中南部当前处于26/27榨季甘蔗生长阶段，受拉尼娜影响，整体降水偏低，近期降水有所持续偏低， 土壤湿度持续回落，处于历史最低水平。 南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 巴西中南部近期降水减少，对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响，当前的土壤湿度已经处于历史低位水 平，不利于甘蔗的拔节。 巴西产区地图预报：降水&土壤湿度 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 . source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 巴西产区气象跟踪：中南部近期降水偏少 土壤湿度偏低 巴西中南部甘蔗产区降水量（含预报）：一季度 source： 自有数据,南华研究 大雨 mm 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil-producing areas currently, and it may be nearing its end as the Southern Oscillation Index approaches the 0-axis [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has decreased, with sporadic rain in eastern Malaysia and Kalimantan, Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has poor soil moisture, and drought may spread in February. Most areas in Indonesia have sufficient rainfall, but attention should be paid to parts of Central and West Kalimantan. There is a risk of dry soil in other regions of Malaysia, and attention should be paid to local drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and Kalimantan, Indonesia [1] - There is limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters currently. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Regional Summaries Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall is on a downward trend, but soil moisture is good with no drought disturbances [23] - **Kalimantan Barat**: Rainfall is decreasing at the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil moisture [28] - **Kalimantan Tengah**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil moisture may decline [36] - **Kalimantan Timur**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [43] - **Riau**: Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [51] - **Sumatera Selatan**: Rainfall is increasing, and soil moisture is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [58] - **Sumatera Utara**: Rainfall has returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [64] Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture may decline [70] - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [77] - **Perak**: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has declined [84] - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [97]

南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——冲高回调，关注能否企稳关键点位 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月12日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期宏观情绪偏暖带动商品整体表现较强，对于工业品有一定估值提振作用，上周出现品种分化与阶段调 整。橡胶系金融属性较强，RU国内月内全面停割，仓单库存有限将有助于近月支撑。但橡胶整体基本面仍承 压，天然橡胶干库连续累库，供给压力不减。汽车配套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补贴和新能源补贴 退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承压；下游轮胎厂商和经销商库存压力较高，轮胎节前备 库开工持稳， 现货交投情绪平淡。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换和对外出口提振，但长期固定资产投资和房地 产投资或维持下滑趋势，内需增长承压且出口不确定性仍存，长期需求受压制，但长期出口预期较好。 从宏观来看，美联储降息周期下，利好商品整体估值，市场预计今年或还有3次降息；国内12月PPI与CPI数 据边际回升，正反馈初有成效；"十五五"开篇之年，未来或迎一系列关于促 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market currently revolves around two major themes: the strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals, driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies; and the anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties, which is gradually advancing. In 2026, the anti-involution theme may play a significant role in the market [2][5] - The overall volatility of the commodity market has increased this week. Adjustments were mainly affected by events such as the anti-monopoly of polysilicon and the cancellation of export tax rebates for some commodities, but this will not affect the anti-involution process [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Analysis - The strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals is essentially driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies. The anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties is gradually advancing, with the glass production showing an obvious decline, and the current daily melting volume at 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015 [2][5] Weekly Market Review - **Precious Metals**: Gold has shown a divergence and stagnant rise recently, and the gold-silver ratio is at a historically low level. Copper, aluminum, nickel and other metals have strong trends, and after a brief technical adjustment last week, they have strengthened again [4] - **Agricultural Products**: The overall trend is still expected to be volatile, with limited downside space but lacking the fundamental elements for a continuous upward trend. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support for US soybeans above 1000 is still effective [4] - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, it will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector, which is a key area. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PTA has set an example, and other varieties may follow. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The supply guarantee market is coming to an end. The supply guarantee is a short-term logic, while anti-involution is a more long-term logic [4] Data Tables - **Table of Plate Capital Flows**: The total capital flow is 56.114 billion yuan. The capital flows of precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed breeding, oilseeds, and soft commodities are 2.326 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 4.278 billion yuan, 958 million yuan, 2.506 billion yuan, 2.745 billion yuan, 3.683 billion yuan, and 1.241 billion yuan respectively [9] - **Table of Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties [9] - **Table of Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties [11] - **Table of Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products [12]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Views - The key issue in the market is whether the current price has reached the bottom. The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include whether the price of the 05 contract has bottomed out, and why the international market cannot hold the price at 15 cents. The 05 contract is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so its price may follow the raw sugar price. However, considering the lack of bullish factors, the probability of the futures price rising further is limited. The 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may become a pressure level in the long - term due to global oversupply [1] - In the short - term trading logic, as the SR2601 contract enters the delivery month, the 3 - 5 spread has turned from positive to negative. The 03 contract faces greater pressure as it is after the Spring Festival and during the peak period of domestic sugar inventory. In the long - term trading logic, SR2605 is a transit contract and not a turning - point contract. In 2026, the import pressure will increase from May, so SR2609 faces greater pressure from imports and carry - over inventory than SR2605 [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The focus of market trading is whether the current price has reached the bottom. The 05 contract is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. The price may follow the raw sugar price, but with limited upside potential due to lack of bullish factors. The 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may be a pressure level [1] - In the short - term, the 3 - 5 spread has changed from positive to negative, and the 03 contract has more pressure. In the long - term, SR2609 has greater import and carry - over inventory pressure than SR2605 [3][6] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a sideways shock. The Zhengzhou sugar moving averages show a sideways pattern, and the 05 contract's K - line has faced resistance near the 60 - day moving average. The price may fluctuate and potentially fall back to the 20 - day moving average [8] - Recent strategy review includes various positions such as long SR2511 (stopped out), selling spot + buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited), etc. [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5000 - 5300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [10] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350, and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% ratio at 5150 - 5200, and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: As of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil decreased by 9% year - on - year. As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 25.35% year - on - year, with corresponding decreases in sugar content, sugar - making rate, and sugar production [11] - Bearish information: As of December, Guangxi's sugar production decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year, and sales decreased by 74.74 tons; Yunnan's sugar production increased by 6.54 tons, and sales increased by 0.43 tons. Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase by 5 tons. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugarcane crushing volume increased compared to the same period last season. Brazil's sugar exports in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar increased. Indian sugar mills have signed about 180,000 tons of sugar export contracts [12] 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Monitor Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar volume and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) and Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The futures price rose this week, with the main 05 contract up 0.7%. The position of the SR2605 contract decreased seasonally, the largest profitable seat increased net short positions to 27,000 contracts, and foreign capital's net short positions decreased slightly to 36,400 contracts. The market shows a sideways shock [16] - **Domestic Market - Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of the 03 contract shows that the cheapest deliverable is at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the market, mainly due to the decline in import prices. The market price is at a premium of 54 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened since December, changing from near - month premium to discount. The forward structure is gradually changing to a far - month premium [18] - **Foreign Market**: The raw sugar price rose 1.99% last week, approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large number of short positions, with a net short position of 154,000 contracts, which increased compared to the previous week [20] - **Foreign Market - Spread Structure**: The raw sugar futures structure is gradually changing to a Contango structure. Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production decreased by 25% year - on - year. The far - month premium is beneficial for sugar mills' hedging, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [22] - **Domestic and Foreign Price Difference Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between the domestic and foreign sugar markets is complex. Currently, the domestic supply pressure has increased, and the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss, changing the previous pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness to domestic weakness and foreign strength [24] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar with high production costs, so it implements a quota system. Recently, due to the continuous decline in the foreign market price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit has been very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports can also supplement the supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam was closed last year, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. The import of syrup and premixed powder has been relatively stable [27] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Since the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year, reaching about 1.156 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season, and this week's data remains unchanged [29]