1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report MEG - The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol (MEG) is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options with an exercise price of 4150 [1][3][5]. PX - TA - In the short term, the absolute price of the PX - TA industry chain is under pressure, but the compression space is limited. It is advisable to consider cautious long positions or expand the TA - SC spread. For the processing fee, it is recommended to expand the TA01 contract processing fee below 270 [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The total load remains stable at 74.93% (+0.02%), with coal - based load rising to 79.38% (+2.69%). The port inventory is expected to increase by about 10,000 tons. The coal - based marginal profit is under significant pressure [2]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand is lackluster, and the speculative sentiment is weak. The bottle - chip processing fee has improved [2]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and MEG in East China decreased from 4378 to 4352 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the MEG coal - based profit dropped from 39 to - 64 yuan/ton [8][10]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased from 45.9 to 46.5 tons [9]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of MEG show certain fluctuations, with production, import, and demand changing over time [12]. Maintenance Situation - Many domestic and foreign MEG devices are in maintenance, such as Xinjiang Tianye Phase III, which was restarted and then shut down again, and two sets of Shell's devices in the United States are under maintenance [1][15]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The PX load is adjusted down to 86.3% (-1.5%), and the PTA load remains stable at 76.8%. The PX is expected to accumulate inventory by about 100,000 tons in September [6]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak [7]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and PTA in East China decreased from 4565 to 4555 yuan/ton [10]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the PTA domestic processing fee increased from 115 to 151 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The PTA social inventory increased from 208 to 210 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of PX - TA change over time, with production, import, and demand showing different trends [13]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX and PTA devices are under maintenance, such as Fuhai Dahua's 700,000 - ton PX line and Zhongtai Petrochemical's PTA device [6][17][18]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has slightly increased [2][7]. Key Data - Price: POY decreased from 6650 to 6625 yuan/ton, and FDY dropped from 7025 to 6875 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread and profit: The POY processing fee increased from 185 to 207 yuan/ton, and the FDY processing fee decreased from 110 to 7 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: The POY inventory days increased from 19.3 to 21.7 days, and the FDY inventory days increased from 21.4 to 22.7 days [11]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester fiber filament and staple fiber shows certain fluctuations [112]. Export and Import - The export and import volumes of polyester products show different trends over time [116][119]. Profit - The processing profit of polyester products such as filament and staple fiber shows certain seasonal changes [121]. Downstream of Polyester Weaving - The weaving start - up rate remains stable, and the inventory of grey cloth is high. The order volume is insufficient [2][7]. Spinning Mill - The start - up rate of the spinning mill shows certain fluctuations, and the inventory of yarn is at a certain level [137][139]. Terminal Macro - The production and sales data of downstream products such as cloth, yarn, and soft drinks show certain seasonal changes [149][150][151]. Spinning and Clothing Export - The export volume and value index of textile and clothing show certain fluctuations [153][155][157]. Global Spinning and Clothing - The import, inventory, and export data of textile and clothing in countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and India show different trends [162][163][165].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - Cost and Sentiment Double Blow, Prices Weakening - Date: September 19, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan, Zhou Jiawei 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The ethylene glycol market currently has limited supply - demand drivers and is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400. Price breakthroughs depend on cost - side and macro - drivers. With short - term sentiment causing an over - decline, there is price support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price ranges for different polyester products are: ethylene glycol 4150 - 4450, PX 6300 - 7000, PTA 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips 5500 - 6100. The 20 - day rolling current volatilities are 9.62% for ethylene glycol, 11.03% for PX, 10.04% for PTA, and 7.59% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility are 2.5%, 7.8%, 7.2%, and 0.8% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4320 - 4420 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P4100) and sell call options (EG2601C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and purchasing based on orders, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4180 - 4250 to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P4100) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol [2]. Core Contradiction of Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - position target for funds. The inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter is advanced and magnified due to new capacity, putting pressure on valuation. With much of the inventory - accumulation expectation already priced in, chasing short positions is not recommended before its realization. The supply side has no significant incremental capacity, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply, the short - term downward space is limited, while upward price movement is more elastic with unexpected drivers. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400, and price breakthroughs depend on cost and macro - drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based production units to near the cost line [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng is planned to start trial production at the end of October, and its progress should be monitored. The new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong is expected to be put into operation ahead of schedule at the end of September or early October, with an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons of output in October [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price, price difference, processing fee, and sales rate data for various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester chips on September 19, 2025, compared with previous days and weeks [8][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply-side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor-alkali profit remains above 300. There is still restocking expectation in non-aluminum downstream, and the non-aluminum rigid demand is seasonally recovering. The future market depends on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 20.66% and a historical percentile of 28.5% over 3 years [2] 2. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (SH601C2800) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (SH601P2480) at 70 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2723, 2734, and 2641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% compared to the previous day. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were -11, 93, and -82 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11, -17, and 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) were -317, -328, and -235 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -55, -44, and -61 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 4. Factory Price of 32% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 32% caustic soda converted to futures price in different regions and brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai in Shandong, which decreased by 2.2% to 2781 yuan/ton [4][6] 5. Factory Price of 50% Caustic Soda Converted to Futures Price - On September 19, 2025, the factory prices of 50% caustic soda converted to futures price in different brands showed little change compared to the previous day, except for Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% to 2720 yuan/ton [6] 6. Market Price of Flake Caustic Soda - On September 19, 2025, the market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions showed no change compared to the previous day [7] 7. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spread - On September 19, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads showed no change compared to the previous day, except for the spread of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong, which increased by 50 yuan/ton to 640 yuan/ton [7] 8. Seasonality of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The report provides the seasonality charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and the seasonality charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9]

Group 1: Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [2] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel disk oscillated weakly during the day. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals had no obvious changes [3] - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia's second - phase benchmark price was released, and the ore end was raised. The supply concern in the ore sector has not been eliminated [3] - In the new energy sector, there is still support. The continuous rise in cobalt prices has driven up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, and subsequent strength may continue [3] - The nickel - iron quotation is still firm, but the actual high - price transactions have declined. The stainless steel disk lost the 12,900 - yuan line during the day, and the actual transactions were limited [3] - At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, and the overall market was weak [3] Group 4: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt [5] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [5] - Stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks [5] - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - The pure nickel inventory is high [5] - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [5] - The uncertainty of the EU's stainless steel import tariff has increased [5] - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [5] - Stainless steel spot transactions are relatively weak [5] Group 5: Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main continuous is 121,500 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 560 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 23.23% to 62,653 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.40% to 50,421 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest value of stainless steel main continuous is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 15 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 33.50% to 116,925 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.79% to 131,185 lots [5] Group 6: Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period [6] - The LME nickel inventory is 228,444 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from the previous period [6] - The stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous period [6] - The nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons from the previous period [6] Group 7: Industry News - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp prices fluctuated within a range with reduced volatility. The near - term contradictions are not prominent. The relatively weak fundamentals have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. Although the output of finished paper has increased, the upward driving force is still insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's interest rate cut has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. - In the near - term, the weak reality corresponds to weak prices. Port inventories are at a high level and de - stocking is not smooth. The prices of needle pulp and broadleaf pulp are restricted, but the impact of the Bu - needle warehouse receipt will weaken after the delivery of the 09 contract. In the long - term, the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to commodities, and the valuation of the 01 contract will increase, but there is no significant upward driving force for now [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with Bu - needle warehouse receipt pressure, high inventory and poor de - stocking, and the so - called "peak season is not prosperous". However, these factors have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. The output of finished paper has increased this week, showing some improvement [1]. - **Macroeconomics**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00% - 4.25% range in September, which is the first rate cut since December 2024. This is due to slow employment growth and rising unemployment. It has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the current market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations with limited bottom space and insufficient upward driving force, and the trading opportunities are not significant [5]. - **Options**: Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options and selling far - month out - of - the - money put options [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high needle pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [8]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4900 - 5000 [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US exempted pulp from the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025 and further cancelled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports in September, reducing the export cost of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to the US and increasing the proportion of exports to the US [8]. - **Negative Information**: Since September, the pulp market has been sluggish, lacking the consumption support of the so - called "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [9]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, and other information of various pulp futures contracts and domestic spot pulp and finished paper [10][13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Single - side Trend and Capital Movement**: Last week, the sp2511 contract fluctuated with a small range, and the weekly position decreased by 21,328 lots [15]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The spread structure remains in a C - structure and has strengthened, indicating some improvement in long - term expectations [18]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the inventory was 2.122 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, ending two weeks of de - stocking and turning to inventory accumulation. High - level inventory is difficult to reduce, and high shipments and high inventory restrict the upward elasticity of pulp prices [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure is still large, while the demand has slightly improved, and there is a certain degree of differentiation in finished paper. The output of most finished paper has increased, but the production profit of downstream enterprises has not improved [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock market's trading volume significantly narrowed today, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to around 2.3 trillion. The market trend basically conforms to the previous prediction of a rapid correction after the Fed's decision and then entering a volatile phase. With the shrinking volume, the amplitude also decreased accordingly. Bulls attempted to push up the market during the session but lacked strength. As the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays approach, some funds may leave the market to avoid holiday uncertainties, as evidenced by a relatively large decline in the positions of stock index futures today. In the short term, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the amplitude will not be large without unexpected incremental information. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade relations, especially the possible release of information on Sino - US leader phone calls [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index significantly reduced trading volume today, with the index mainly fluctuating. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.08%. In terms of funds, the turnover of the two markets dropped to 23238.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 8113.28 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM decreased in volume, while other stock index futures increased in volume [2][7]. Important Information - Shanghai optimized and adjusted relevant policies for the pilot individual housing property tax. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued a notice on promoting the expansion and upgrading of the 15 - minute convenient living circle in cities, proposing 20 specific measures in six aspects [3]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Stock Index Futures Market Observation | Index | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.34 | - 0.21 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 16.3076 | 6.7312 | 18.7556 | 31.8745 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 5.6943 | - 3.3283 | - 4.8712 | - 11.0228 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.6953 | 9.579 | 24.6232 | 39.0272 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 3.165 | - 1.9052 | - 2.4895 | - 1.4882 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.30 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.04 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.57 | | Turnover of the two markets (billion yuan) | 23238.29 | | Turnover change (billion yuan) | - 8113.28 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, with a divergence in far - month pricing and uncertainty about near - term direction, which depends on the downstream destocking ability during the peak season [2] - For glass, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, the phased restocking ability is weak, some production lines may have ignition plans, and policy expectations fluctuate. The daily melting on the supply side is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expected. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high, normal maintenance continues, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II in the fourth quarter. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and there is an expectation of price increase. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.60% and a historical percentile of 74.3% over 3 years. For soda ash, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 19.07% and a historical percentile of 13.9% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory, short FG2601 futures at 1400 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Glass Purchase Management**: For low glass purchase inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash product inventory, short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Soda Ash Purchase Management**: For low soda ash purchase inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Glass and Soda Ash Market Data Glass - On September 19, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1343, 1405, and 1216 respectively, with daily increases of 1.13%, 1.3%, and 0.66% [4] - The spot prices of glass in most regions remained stable on September 19, 2025, with only slight declines in some brands in the Shahe area [5] Soda Ash - On September 19, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1407, 1454, and 1318 respectively, with daily increases of 0.5%, 0.83%, and 0.92% [6] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained unchanged on September 18, 2025, except for a 12 - unit increase in the Shahe heavy - soda price [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.23% today [1][4]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell by -0.07%, while the rest all rose. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 0.87%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.22% [1][4]. - Among the theme indices, the Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.03%, the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.01%, the Petrochemical Index had the largest decrease of -0.62%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest decrease of -0.2% [1][4]. - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Industrial Silicon Index had the largest increase of 4.49%, and the Paraxylene Index had the largest decrease of -1.35% [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Data - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.23% today, with different performance among sector, theme, and single - variety indices [1][4]. Index Contribution - The contribution degree is the product of the increase/decrease and the weight, and the calculation method is a certain variety's daily increase/decrease divided by the sum of all varieties' daily increase/decrease [9]. Index Trend - There are historical trend charts of the Nanhua Composite Index, sector indices, and theme indices (normalized) [4]. Industry Chain - There are industry chain diagrams and single - variety index daily increase/decrease for the energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors [4][5][7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 6.13 points, a gain of 0.24%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and rebar. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 34.64 points, a gain of 0.96%, with coke and crude oil being the most influential. The Nanhua Metal Index rose 8.69 points, a gain of 0.14%, with rebar having the greatest influence. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose 23.3 points, a gain of 1.42%, led by coke. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 8.57 points, a decline of -0.78%, mainly due to the impact of live pigs [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Weekly Data | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Points Changed | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2546.21 | 2540.08 | 6.13 | 0.24% | 2573.68 | 2540.08 | 33.60 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1345.45 | 1356.24 | -10.78 | -0.80% | 1367.84 | 1334.46 | 33.38 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3630.65 | 3596.01 | 34.64 | 0.96% | 3664.10 | 3596.01 | 68.09 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6411.66 | 6402.98 | 8.69 | 0.14% | 6438.98 | 6380.04 | 58.95 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1664.67 | 1641.37 | 23.30 | 1.42% | 1688.27 | 1641.37 | 46.90 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1689.68 | 1700.91 | -11.24 | -0.66% | 1705.58 | 1683.58 | 22.00 | | Black Index NHFI | 2590.86 | 2533.40 | 57.46 | 2.27% | 2590.86 | 2533.40 | 57.46 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1084.14 | 1092.71 | -8.57 | -0.78% | 1095.22 | 1081.74 | 13.48 | | Nanhua Composite Fee NHCIMi | 1199.02 | 1186.12 | 12.90 | 1.09% | 1211.44 | 1186.12 | 25.32 | | Energy Fee NHEI | 1070.73 | 1041.11 | 29.62 | 2.85% | 1090.08 | 1041.11 | 48.97 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 66.956 | 928.44 | -2.45 | -0.26% | 939.89 | 66.956 | 13.90 | | Chemical Engineering Information HCCI | 1003.49 | 1003.47 | 0.02 | 0.00% | 1013.11 | 1003.34 | 9.76 | | Black Raw Materials Photography NHFMI | 1093.85 | 1061.21 | 32.64 | 3.08% | 1093.85 | 1061.21 | 32.64 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 744.57 | 731.80 | 12.77 | 1.75% | 746.57 | 731.80 | 14.77 | | Agricultural By-products Index AHOOl | 1262.75 | 1266.02 | -3.27 | -0.26% | 1273.29 | 1254.86 | 18.43 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 893.42 | 904.79 | -11.37 | -1.26% | 904.79 | 893.42 | 11.37 | [4] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data The report provides data on the strength and weakness arbitrage of the Nanhua variety index, including the current value, previous value, change, and ranking of various index ratios. For example, the ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Composite Index is 0.528, down from 0.534 last week [7]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Return to Index Return The report shows the contribution of the daily return of each variety to the index return, including the week-on-week increase, position ratio, etc. of futures varieties such as soybean meal and polyethylene [9]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Sector Indexes - **Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3630.65 this week. The most influential varieties were coke and crude oil, with contribution rates of 0.39% and 0.38% respectively [3][11]. - **Metal Index**: Closed at 6411.66 this week. Rebar had the greatest influence, with a contribution rate of 0.26% [3][11]. - **Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1664.67 this week. Coke was the most influential, with a contribution rate of 0.57% [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1084.14 this week, down 8.57 points. Live pigs had the greatest negative impact, with a contribution rate of -0.50% [3][12]. - **Black Index**: Closed at 2590.86 this week. The influential varieties included coke, rebar, and iron ore [13]. - **Non-ferrous Metals Index**: Closed at 1689.68 this week [13].