Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on commodities but expects the upward pace to slow and volatility to increase. In the long - term, copper and aluminum in the non - ferrous sector may have potential for supplementary growth, while the black sector's short - term trading value depends on capital sentiment. Crude oil is in a downward trend, and lithium carbonate has significant risks. Precious metals are more suitable for allocation through ETFs [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - The domestic "moderately loose" monetary policy and "integrated effect" regulatory approach provide a warm liquidity expectation. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary's call for the Fed to cut interest rates signals potential risks. The US employment report in December has hidden problems, and the market is divided on the Fed's policy direction [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - After the release of the US initial jobless claims data, the US dollar index rose, and the RMB exchange rate showed a certain trend. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [1][5]. Stock Index - The previous sharp rise driven by capital has weakened, and the large - cap and small - cap stock indices showed a differentiated trend. Short - term stock indices may face adjustment, but if trading enthusiasm remains and policy benefits are expected, they may strengthen after a phased consolidation [5]. Treasury Bonds - The short - term bond market may continue to recover if the A - share market continues to fluctuate, but the upside space is limited. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The spot market shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short term [10]. Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The spot market of the lithium battery industry chain performs well, but the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warns of irrational competition. Investors are advised to focus on structural long - term opportunities after corrections [12][13]. Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The regulatory policy will make the polysilicon futures price return to the fundamental supply - demand and marginal cost logic. The polysilicon market is in a supply - demand weak situation, and the industrial silicon price is expected to weaken [13][15]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US interest rate cut expectation will disrupt market sentiment. After a sharp decline, the copper price will repair. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range [16][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term, with short - term correction pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and casting aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish. It can be considered to go long on aluminum alloy and short on aluminum when the price difference is large [18][20]. Zinc - Zinc is in a continuous adjustment state, with short - term high - level volatility expected [20][21]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices have significantly corrected. The nickel price is at a high valuation, and the risk of Indonesia's quota release needs to be noted [21][22]. Tin - Tin has a technical correction. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [24]. Lead - Lead has fallen back to the shock range. It is expected to be volatile in the future [25][26]. Oilseeds and Fats Oilseeds - Oilseeds are in a bottom - shock state. The supply pressure from Brazil next year will suppress the rebound of the main contract, but the short - term supply gap may cause a phased rebound in the near - month contract [27][28]. Fats - The palm oil market sentiment has warmed up, and short - term fats are expected to have a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the MPOB data and the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [28][29]. Energy and Oil & Gas Asphalt - The conflict between the US and Venezuela may lead to a short - term supply disruption of heavy crude oil, and the asphalt cracking spread may be strong in the short term [30][31]. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term. In the short term, attention should be paid to the index adjustment and non - farm data, and the risk of correction should be vigilant [32][33]. Gold & Silver - Precious metals are in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. They are in a high - level shock in the short term, and the long - term trend is bullish. Corrections can be regarded as opportunities to add long positions [35][37]. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp spot price has generally fallen, and the market is neutral to bearish. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions [38][39]. LPG - Geopolitical factors provide support. The domestic supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the PDH maintenance situation [40][41]. PTA - PX - PTA shows high self - discipline, and the PX - TA structural contradiction has been significantly alleviated. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, and it is recommended to go long on corrections [42][44]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The demand negative feedback of ethylene glycol is intensifying. The polyester load is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high [45][46]. Methanol - Methanol is likely to start an upward - shock phase. Attention should be paid to the inventory change and the restart of the MTO device [48][49]. PP - The short - term fundamentals of PP have improved, but the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival may limit the upside space [49][50]. PE - PE is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and inventory pressure [51][52]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a situation of weak domestic and strong overseas. Styrene has short - term positive news, but it is not recommended to chase high in the off - season [52][53]. Soda Ash - Soda ash has a high - level supply expectation in the long - term, and the price is restricted by the high inventory [54][55]. Glass - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired. The current high - level inventory needs to be digested [56]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a weak - reality state, with a wide - range shock expected and weak fundamental driving force [57]. Propylene - Propylene may have an upward price expectation due to cost factors, but attention should be paid to the upside risk before the fundamentals improve [58][59]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil - The steel price is expected to be in a shock trend, with the rebar 2605 contract price range at 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract at 3000 - 3400 [59]. Iron Ore - The iron ore fundamentals are neutral. Attention should be paid to the inventory release policy risk, and long positions are advised to be reduced on high [60][61]. Coking Coal & Coke - The coal - coke market may turn into a small - range shock if the macro sentiment cools down [62][63]. Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a shock - bullish trend. The increase in production and inventory may suppress the upward rhythm, but the downside space is limited [63][64]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price is expected to remain in a low - level narrow - range shock pattern without significant improvement in the supply - demand structure [65]. Cotton - The cotton market is affected by the expectation of tight supply - demand and potential policy changes. It is recommended to go long on corrections [66]. Sugar - The sugar price is in a shock and pressured state, and attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [66][67]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to be shock - bullish before the Spring Festival, but the risk of price correction after the festival should be vigilant [68][69]. Apples - The apple market has a problem of shortage of delivery products. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation [69][70]. Jujubes - Jujube prices are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term and pressured in the long - term [71][73]. Logs - Logs are recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, with a reference interval of 760 - 790 [74][75].

Report Date - The report is dated January 8, 2026 [3] Core Viewpoint - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -1.44% today. All sector indices and theme indices declined. The Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index had the largest decline of -3.06% among sector indices, while the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.51%. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest decline of -1.47% among theme indices, and the Energy Index had the smallest decline of -0.16%. Among single commodity futures indices, the Low-sulfur Fuel Oil index had the largest increase of 2.41%, and the Nickel index had the largest decline of -7.87% [1][3] Index Data Summary Comprehensive Index and Sector Indices - **Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI)**: Closed at 2670.47, down 39.07 points or -1.44% from the previous day, with an annualized return of 7.37% and an annualized volatility of 11.82%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.62 [3] - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Closed at 1923.55, down 35.23 points or -1.80%, with an annualized return of 88.42%, an annualized volatility of 20.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of 4.35 [3] - **Industrial Products Index (NHII)**: Closed at 3603.79, down 53.43 points or -1.46%, with an annualized return of -4.03%, an annualized volatility of 14.05%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.29 [3] - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Closed at 7138.95, down 172.64 points or -2.36%, with an annualized return of 13.49%, an annualized volatility of 12.58%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.07 [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Closed at 1541.33, down 9.37 points or -0.60%, with an annualized return of -14.57%, an annualized volatility of 16.79%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.87 [3] - **Non-ferrous Metals Index (NHNF)**: Closed at 2014.27, down 63.62 points or -3.06%, with an annualized return of 23.42%, an annualized volatility of 13.95%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.68 [3] - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Closed at 2589.82, down 32.24 points or -1.23%, with an annualized return of -1.74%, an annualized volatility of 16.55%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.11 [3] - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Closed at 1058.85, down 5.45 points or -0.51%, with an annualized return of 1.96%, an annualized volatility of 7.88%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.25 [3] Theme Indices - **Nanhua Composite Mini Index (NHCIMi)**: Closed at 1163.48, down 6.42 points or -0.55%, with an annualized return of -0.33%, an annualized volatility of 8.68%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.04 [3] - **Energy Index (NHEI)**: Closed at 948.90, down 1.51 points or -0.16%, with an annualized return of -3.40%, an annualized volatility of 16.47%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.21 [3] - **Petrochemical Index (NHPCI)**: Closed at 907.49, down 5.39 points or -0.59%, with an annualized return of 0.66%, an annualized volatility of 10.52%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 [3] - **Coal Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Closed at 930.25, down 8.34 points or -0.89%, with an annualized return of -0.66%, an annualized volatility of 12.07%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05 [3] - **Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM)**: Closed at 1093.09, down 16.34 points or -1.47%, with an annualized return of 0.05%, an annualized volatility of 17.46%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.00 [3] - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Closed at 709.62, down 2.84 points or -0.40%, with an annualized return of -0.20%, an annualized volatility of 12.50%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.02 [3] - **Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl)**: Closed at 1220.66, down 8.08 points or -0.66%, with an annualized return of -0.23%, an annualized volatility of 8.30%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.03 [3] - **Economic Crops Index (NHAECI)**: Closed at 938.82, down 9.03 points or -0.95%, with an annualized return of 0.95%, an annualized volatility of 8.46%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.11 [3] Single Commodity Futures Indices - The Low-sulfur Fuel Oil index had the largest increase of 2.41%, and the Nickel index had the largest decline of -7.87% [1][3] Industry Chain and Index Fluctuation - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The Synthetic Ammonia index fell -1.35%, Coal - 0.03%, Naphtha - 0.30%, PTA -1.24%, Crude Oil - 0.17%, and Fuel Oil rose 0.86% [11] - **Black Sector**: Some品种产业链示意图 is provided, but specific data is not fully presented [12] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: The Rapeseed Oil index rose 0.58%, Peanut Oil - 0.39%, Soybean Oil - 1.53%, Rapeseed - 0.35%, Rapeseed Meal - 2.52%, and Live Pigs rose 0.80% [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current commodity futures market rally is mainly driven by funds rather than fundamental improvements. The market may remain strong in the short - term but the upward pace will slow and volatility will increase. In the long - run, different sectors have different outlooks [2]. - The RMB exchange rate's upward trend is marginally slowing. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, while import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [5]. - The upward momentum of the stock index is weakening, and it may adjust in the short - term, but the overall trend is expected to be strong this month [6]. - Treasury bonds still need to find a bottom in the short - term, and mid - term long positions can continue to be held [7]. - The spot price of container shipping to Europe shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short - term [11]. - For lithium carbonate, beware of price fluctuations caused by long - position profit - taking in the short - term, but there are still opportunities for long - term layout [14]. - For industrial silicon, beware of cost - side price fluctuations and short - term correction risks; for polysilicon, pay attention to the sustainability of price increases and terminal bid - winning situations [16]. - For copper, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range, and do not recommend new long positions above 100,000. For zinc, it will maintain high - level volatility in the short - term. For nickel - stainless steel, it may be strong in the short - term but beware of supply - side risks. For tin, it will maintain high - level volatility. For lead, it will fluctuate [19][21][23][24][25]. - For oilseeds, the outer market is weakly volatile, and the inner - market near - month contracts may rebound. For oils and fats, they will be in wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [27][28]. - For asphalt, short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances [30]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation remains, but beware of short - term correction risks. For gold and silver, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the long - term trend is upward [34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the current market is neutral - to - bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see or try light - position long - buying strategies [38][39]. - For LPG, pay attention to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance. For PTA - PX, the supply - demand pattern is good, but do not chase high prices. For MEG - bottle chips, the market is difficult to break downward in the short - term but is under long - term over - supply pressure. For methanol, it is likely to start an upward - trending and volatile phase. For PP, the short - term fundamentals are improving. For PE, the bottom is rising, but pay attention to the approaching Spring Festival. For urea, consider buying long - term contracts. For soda ash, glass, and caustic soda, they are affected by sentiment and have different fundamentals. For propylene, the price may rise due to cost support but pay attention to risks [41][45][47][49][52][55][57][58][59][60][61]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price will fluctuate, and it is strongly volatile in the short - term. For iron ore, the short - term price is overbought, and it is advisable to reduce long positions. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the winter storage inventory transfer. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are affected by news and are strongly volatile in the short - term [63][65][67][70]. - For live pigs, the price will fluctuate narrowly. For cotton, pay attention to policy adjustments and consider long - position layout at low prices. For sugar, the short - term price is strongly volatile. For eggs, the price may remain strongly volatile. For red dates, the price will be in low - level fluctuations. For logs, use a range - trading strategy [73][76][78][80][81][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The PBOC has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The SHFE has adjusted the trading margin ratio and price limit range of silver futures. The US ADP employment data in December is lower than expected, while the ISM services PMI is at a high level. The preliminary value of the Eurozone CPI in December 2025 slows to 2% [1]. - **Core Judgments and Conduction Logic**: The current commodity market rally is mainly driven by funds. The market may remain strong in the short - term, but different sectors have different long - term outlooks [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate's upward trend is marginally slowing. Export and import enterprises are given different exchange - rate management strategies [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The upward momentum of the stock index is weakening, and it may adjust in the short - term, but the overall trend is expected to be strong this month [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds still need to find a bottom in the short - term, and mid - term long positions can continue to be held [6][7]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The spot price shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short - term [8][11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Beware of short - term price fluctuations caused by long - position profit - taking, but there are still long - term layout opportunities [14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, beware of cost - side price fluctuations and short - term correction risks; for polysilicon, pay attention to the sustainability of price increases and terminal bid - winning situations [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range, and do not recommend new long positions above 100,000 [19][20]. - **Zinc**: It will maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [21]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It may be strong in the short - term but beware of supply - side risks [23]. - **Tin**: It will maintain high - level volatility [24]. - **Lead**: It will fluctuate [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The outer market is weakly volatile, and the inner - market near - month contracts may rebound [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: They will be in wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, and pay attention to the results of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China for rapeseed oil [28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Asphalt**: Short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances [30]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation remains, but beware of short - term correction risks [33][34]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the long - term trend is upward [35][36]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral - to - bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see or try light - position long - buying strategies [38][39]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX**: The supply - demand pattern is good, but do not chase high prices [45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The market is difficult to break downward in the short - term but is under long - term over - supply pressure [47]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward - trending and volatile phase [49]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals are improving [52]. - **PE**: The bottom is rising, but pay attention to the approaching Spring Festival [55]. - **Urea**: Consider buying long - term contracts [57]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: They are affected by sentiment and have different fundamentals [58][59][60]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise due to cost support but pay attention to risks [61]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price will fluctuate, and it is strongly volatile in the short - term [63]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is overbought, and it is advisable to reduce long positions [65]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Pay attention to the winter storage inventory transfer [67]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by news and are strongly volatile in the short - term [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price will fluctuate narrowly [73]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to policy adjustments and consider long - position layout at low prices [76]. - **Sugar**: The short - term price is strongly volatile [78]. - **Eggs**: The price may remain strongly volatile [80]. - **Red Dates**: The price will be in low - level fluctuations [81]. - **Logs**: Use a range - trading strategy [83].

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年01月07日 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 142300 | 4360 | 3.16% | 23480 | 19.76% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 420407 | 116170 | 38.18% | -268357 | -38.96% | 手 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 506520 | -28479 | -5.32% | -5825 | -1.14% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年01月06日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 137940 | 7960 | 6.12% | 7420 | 5.68% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 304237 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The South China Composite Index rose 1.91% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][3] - All sector indices and theme indices increased, with the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index having the largest increase of 3.52% among sector indices and the Coal - Chemical Index having the largest increase of 2.38% among theme indices [1][3] - Among single - variety indices of commodity futures, the silver index had the largest increase of 6.6%, while the starch index had the largest decrease of - 0.32% [1] Group 2: Index Market Data - The South China Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2695.42, up 50.41 points or 1.91% from the previous close, with an annualized return of 8.30% and an annualized volatility of 11.71%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 [3] - The Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1972.39, up 61.97 points or 3.24%, with an annualized return of 93.64%, an annualized volatility of 20.19%, and a Sharpe ratio of 4.64 [3] - The Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3609.73, up 65.34 points or 1.84%, with an annualized return of - 4.03%, an annualized volatility of 13.91%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.29 [3] - The Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 7164.63, up 160.46 points or 2.29%, with an annualized return of 13.78%, an annualized volatility of 12.18%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.13 [3] - The Energy - Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1537.82, up 24.28 points or 1.60%, with an annualized return of - 15.02%, an annualized volatility of 16.76%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.90 [3] - The Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 2049.02, up 69.70 points or 3.52%, with an annualized return of 25.87%, an annualized volatility of 13.53%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.91 [3] - The Black Index (NHFF) closed at 2529.91, up 15.33 points or 0.61%, with an annualized return of - 4.61%, an annualized volatility of 16.11%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.29 [3] - The Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1058.00, up 7.32 points or 0.70%, with an annualized return of 1.96%, an annualized volatility of 7.84%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.25 [3] - The Continuous Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1163.40, up 9.55 points or 0.83%, with an annualized return of - 0.72%, an annualized volatility of 8.69%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.08 [3] - The Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 955.20, up 13.13 points or 1.39%, with an annualized return of - 3.50%, an annualized volatility of 16.50%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.21 [3] - The Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 906.85, up 15.13 points or 1.70%, with an annualized return of 0.10%, an annualized volatility of 10.60%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.01 [3] - The Coal - Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 934.90, up 21.71 points or 2.38%, with an annualized return of - 1.23%, an annualized volatility of 12.26%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.10 [3] - The Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1063.70, up 6.68 points or 0.63%, with an annualized return of - 1.41%, an annualized volatility of 14.00%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.10 [3] - The Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 693.97, up 6.44 points or 0.94%, with an annualized return of - 1.70%, an annualized volatility of 11.11%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.15 [3] - The Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) closed at 1218.39, up 8.47 points or 0.70%, with an annualized return of - 0.26%, an annualized volatility of 7.98%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 0.03 [3] - The Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 942.51, up 6.79 points or 0.73%, with an annualized return of 1.04%, an annualized volatility of 8.06%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.13 [3] Group 3: Miscellaneous Information - The calculation of price changes in the report is based on the ratio of today's closing price to yesterday's closing price, and the contribution is the product of price change and weight [8] - The South China Commodity Index eliminates the price difference during contract roll - over, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [8] - The contribution calculation method used in the report is: a certain variety's daily price change / ∑|each variety's daily price change| [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic油脂 market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver lies in the overseas market. The market will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, waiting for the impact of US energy policies, Malaysia's inventory reduction progress, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, the short - term trading should be treated within a range. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in 2026 is earlier, the pressure on palm oil producing areas will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We should wait to see if it can start an upward trend after inventory reduction [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions in the油脂 market mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down inventory reduction. Indonesia's B50 plan has no new news and is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which supports long - term palm oil demand but has limited short - term benefits [1] - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain, providing limited support to the market [1] - The result of the China - Canada negotiation is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1] - The overall supply of the three major domestic油脂 remains sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of inventory reduction with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in detail in the report 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term range - bound oscillation, and there is still upward space for palm oil in the medium term. The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8800], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [18] - Technical analysis: Unilateral trading oscillates within the range. For arbitrage, we can observe the weakening trend of the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The current basis should be treated with a short - term weak - oscillation mindset. There is no month - spread strategy for now. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil should be treated as weakening [18] - A series of historical strategy recommendations are listed, including stop - loss exits, profit - taking exits, and waiting for appropriate opportunities [18] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: The latest prices of palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8342 yuan/ton, 8488 yuan/ton, and 8376 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of 1.42%, 1.12%, and 1.02%. The price of BMD palm oil main contract is 4000 ringgit/ton, down 0.35% [20] - Soybean oil: The latest prices of soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8140 yuan/ton, 7912 yuan/ton, and 7774 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.99%, 0.8%, and 0.56%. The price of CBOT soybean oil main contract is 49.85 cents/pound, up 1.07% [20] - Rapeseed oil: The latest prices of rapeseed oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 9736 yuan/ton, 9044 yuan/ton, and 9009 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price of ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is 613.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.8 [20] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic油脂 decreased slightly to 2110000 tons, with a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 250000 tons, and an increase of 190000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1089000 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.07%. From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 239675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period last month [22][23] - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean export volume in 2025 reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase compared with 2024. Its soybean meal and corn export volumes also reached record levels. In December 2025, the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and the import volume of soybeans in January is expected to decrease, with the crushing volume expected to drop slightly to about 8 million tons. India's palm oil import volume in December decreased by 20% month - on - month to 507000 metric tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Due to the increase in soybean oil and sunflower oil imports, India's total edible oil import volume increased by 19% month - on - month, reaching a three - month high of 1.37 million tons. The market generally expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 to continue to accumulate, with Reuters expecting 2.97 million tons (a 4.7% month - on - month increase) and Bloomberg expecting 2.99 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month increase) [24][27] - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent油脂 transactions are average, with relatively high soybean oil transactions and no transactions for rapeseed oil for now [25] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Not provided in detail in the report Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The油脂 market continued its wide - range volatile trend this week. Due to unresolved pressure in producing areas and unclear US biodiesel policies, the global油脂 market demand expansion is limited. We should pay attention to US bio - energy policy information and inventory reduction progress in producing areas [30] - Capital trends: The positions of key profitable seats for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious recently. Foreign investors have insufficient confidence in the油脂 sector. The net short positions of foreign investors and retail investors in palm oil have increased slightly, with prices continuously falling and positions decreasing significantly, but the trend degree has slightly turned positive, and volatility is low, indicating that the market may enter a consolidation stage. Soybean oil prices have stabilized recently after a continuous decline, with positions decreasing, a weak trend but a slowdown in the decline. Foreign investors have increased short positions, and retail investors have slightly increased long positions, and the market maintains a volatile consolidation. Rapeseed oil prices have stabilized at a low level after a continuous decline, with positions dropping to the lowest in two years, continuous capital outflows, and the basis approaching the spot price, indicating that the market may be approaching the bottom area [30] - Basis structure: The main - contract basis of油脂 continued to bottom - out and consolidate this week. Due to high domestic油脂 inventory and average downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [32] - Month - spread structure: The油脂 market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil has become shallower. Weak reality continues to suppress the disk. Due to the lack of information on Indonesia's B50, market sentiment is weak. High soybean oil supply still suppresses prices, and the supply tension of rapeseed oil has gradually improved [32] - Spread structure: Due to the lack of further information this week, cross - variety spreads mainly oscillated. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts inventory reduction, its support has improved. With the continuous supply of rapeseed oil, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is still expected to weaken [53] - **Overseas Market**: The overseas market oscillated this week. The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil has not been relieved, and there is insufficient weather disturbance. Indonesia's B50 lacks new progress, and the quotes in producing areas continue to consolidate. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and US soybeans lack positive driving factors and oscillate weakly. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and US soybean oil continues to oscillate. The cost - effectiveness of international palm oil has not been reflected for now. There is no expectation of a relaxation in China - Canada relations, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed has eased some supply tension. Currently, the positions of CBOT soybean oil managed funds have decreased slightly, with a pessimistic sentiment and insufficient market confidence in a rise. The net positions of producers/ traders/ processors/ users have rebounded, and confidence has increased [56] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - and - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - This week, the POGO spread decreased slightly. Due to the lack of price support for palm oil, the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels has declined. The BOHO spread continued to weaken. Due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel has remained at the lowest level in recent years due to the sufficient global soybean supply [64] 4.2 Import - and - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the prices in producing areas have been consolidating at a low level. The import profit has changed slightly, but the profit range is not large. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the downstream acceptance is average, and the profit still remains negative [67] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. We should pay attention to the production changes in producing areas. Currently, La Niña climate has appeared in producing areas, but the rainfall is limited, and the impact on the main producing areas is temporarily small, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased month - on - month in December, but export boost was insufficient, and the inventory inflection point is difficult to appear for the time being. It is expected that the inventory inflection point may be seen as early as January [69] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. Producing areas have entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell goods during inventory reduction is limited. In addition, palm oil is easy to solidify in winter, and demand is weak. The import profit in China is inverted, and it is expected that the number of orders will be difficult to increase. We should wait for the rebound after the inventory pressure in producing areas is relieved [71] - Soybean oil: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans reaches the seasonal low point, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is relatively large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. We should pay attention to whether there will be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [71] - Rapeseed oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving successively, the quantity is limited, and inventory reduction will continue. However, the global rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the cost price is weak. Coupled with the increased import of Russian rapeseed oil, the supply gap is gradually disappearing. If China - Canada relations improve, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [71] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory of the three major油脂 is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for油脂, the market boost is limited after the festival stocking is over. Due to limited population growth and the diversification and health - orientation of residents' diet structures, the overall terminal demand for油脂 is still relatively weak and may continue to operate steadily and weakly [77]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro environment has diverse characteristics with policy dividends, economic recovery, RMB appreciation, and geopolitical disturbances coexisting. The futures market is in a resonance stage of policy implementation, economic recovery, and liquidity easing, presenting structural opportunities in multiple sectors, but also hiding potential risks [2] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and export and import enterprises are given corresponding hedging strategies [4] - The short - term trend of stock indices is likely to continue to be strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical risks [5] - The short - term performance of treasury bonds may be weak, but the value of long - term bonds will recover after adjustment, and medium - term long positions can be held [6] - The short - term price of container shipping on the European line is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases and geopolitical risks [10] - Precious metals are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term callback risks due to index parameter adjustment [13] - The copper price has reached a new high, and investors are given corresponding trading strategies [18] - The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - to - long - term, while alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and attention can be paid to the spread between cast aluminum alloy and aluminum [20] - The zinc price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [20] - The nickel - stainless steel market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the risk of callback [21] - The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short - term, and interval operations are recommended [22] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to have opportunities for long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment progress of downstream enterprises [23] - Industrial silicon is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, but has the value of long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term; the spot price of polysilicon has increased, and attention should be paid to the price sustainability and terminal winning bid situation [25] - The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short - term [26] - The steel price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [27] - The iron ore price is expected to be in a volatile operation due to the balance between high supply and rigid demand [29] - The price of coking coal and coke may be affected by factors such as winter storage and supply recovery, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply situation [31] - The ferroalloy price may be adjusted in the short - term, but there is cost support at the bottom [33] - The pulp and offset paper markets are recommended to be observed first, and pulp can consider short - selling opportunities in the short - term, while offset paper should pay attention to the risk of chasing high prices [36] - The LPG price is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas events and potential domestic PDH maintenance [38] - The PX - PTA market is expected to be in a tight pattern in the first half of 2026, but there may be a phased callback, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42] - The MEG - bottle chip market is under pressure in terms of valuation before the realization of the macro narrative, and the excess supply expectation will continue to dominate [46] - The methanol price is likely to start an upward - trending shock stage [48] - The PP market has improved in the short - term, but there is still pressure from the expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to be in a volatile pattern [51] - The PE market is in a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the supply pressure relief brings some upward momentum, but the lack of demand support may limit the upward space [54] - The pure benzene market is in an over - supply situation, and the styrene market has some positive factors, but it is not recommended to chase high prices [56] - The asphalt price may be strong in the short - term due to supply disturbances [58] - The synthetic rubber market may be in a strong - trending shock in the short - term, but the fundamental driving force is limited [60] - The soda ash, glass, and caustic soda markets are all in a weak state, and their prices are expected to be in a low - level shock [61][62][63] - The log price is in a range - trading state, and a low - buying and high - selling strategy can be adopted [65] - The propylene price may be supported by cost in the short - term, but the upward space is limited before the fundamental improvement [66] - The pig price is under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the second - fattening behavior and the change of the standard - fat price difference [69] - The oilseed market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, and a 35 - positive spread strategy can be held [70][72] - The oil market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the production in producing areas and the information of the biodiesel market [73] - The cotton price may be adjusted in the short - term, but there is still room for increase in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment [75] - The sugar price is under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the fluctuation of the raw sugar price [77] - The egg price may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [79] - The apple price is expected to rise further in both near - and far - term contracts due to the shortage of delivery products [81] - The jujube price may be in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the domestic supply is abundant in the medium - to - long - term, so the price will be under pressure [83] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: On the previous trading day, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains. International precious metals and London base metals also rose, and oil prices increased. There were various market news, including the progress of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market, Trump's "tax - increase" threat to India, and the statements of central bank governors [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate. The appreciation was supported by seasonal settlement demand and market expectations. The central bank's attitude was crucial, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chairperson. Export and import enterprises were given corresponding hedging strategies [4] - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices rose significantly with heavy trading volume. The market sentiment was boosted by the performance of Chinese assets during the New Year's Day holiday and the easing of the capital market. The short - term trend was expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures were weak on Monday. The market was affected by factors such as the rise of the A - share market and concerns about new bond supply. The central bank's bond - buying scale was lower than expected. Medium - term long positions could be held, and short - term trading could wait for oversold buying opportunities [6] - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The container shipping index (European line) futures rose on the first trading day after the holiday. The market was in a game between the pre - Spring Festival peak season and the implementation of price increases. The short - term price was expected to be high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases and geopolitical risks [7][10] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose significantly. The price was affected by geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustment, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand fundamentals. There was a risk of short - term callback due to index parameter adjustment, but the medium - to - long - term trend was still upward [12][13] - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The short - term trend was in a high - level shock, and the medium - to - long - term was bullish. Attention should be paid to data such as non - farm payrolls and index weight adjustment [14][15] - **Copper**: The copper price reached a new high. The futures market had a net inflow of funds, and the copper market attracted 4 billion yuan. Investors were given corresponding trading strategies [16][18] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price was affected by funds and supply - demand expectations, and was expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - to - long - term. Alumina was in an over - supply situation and was recommended to be shorted on rallies. Cast aluminum alloy was recommended to pay attention to the spread with aluminum [19][20] - **Zinc**: The zinc price was strong. The short - term core contradiction was the tight domestic raw material supply, but the supply was expected to be loose in the long - term. The price was expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [20] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market was volatile. The market was affected by factors such as Indonesian policies and the off - season of the new energy market. Attention should be paid to the risk of callback [21] - **Tin**: The tin price was strong, mainly driven by macro and capital sentiment. The short - term upward space was limited, and it was expected to be in a wide - range shock [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The market inquiry increased, and attention should be paid to the replenishment progress of downstream enterprises. There were opportunities for long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term [22][23] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, but had the value of long - position layout in the medium - to - long - term. The spot price of polysilicon increased, and attention should be paid to the price sustainability and terminal winning bid situation [23][25] - **Lead**: The lead price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply was decreasing, and the demand was lacking new drivers. The price was expected to be in a shock range in the short - term [26] Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price was in a weak - trending shock. The steel production increased slightly, and the demand was expected to weaken after the holiday. The iron ore port inventory continued to accumulate, and the coking coal supply was relatively loose. The steel price was expected to be in a volatile trend [27] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was in an intraday shock. The supply was high, and the demand was rigid. The price was expected to be in a volatile operation [28][29] - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets were in a downward shock. The coking coal inventory structure improved, and the import pressure might ease in January. The coke price was affected by factors such as the profit of coking plants and the production of steel mills [30][31] - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The ferroalloy price was adjusted slightly. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The price was under pressure, but there was cost support at the bottom [32][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures price was volatile, and the offset paper futures price was upward. The pulp market was relatively stable, and the offset paper was affected by cost and price - increase letters. It was recommended to observe first, and pulp could consider short - selling opportunities in the short - term [35][36] - **LPG**: The LPG price was supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term. The supply was tight, and the demand was relatively stable. Attention should be paid to overseas events and potential domestic PDH maintenance [36][38] - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply was expected to be high, and the PTA production was reduced. The PX - PTA market was expected to be in a tight pattern in the first half of 2026, but there may be a phased callback, and it was recommended to buy on dips [39][42] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The MEG supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. The market was under pressure in terms of valuation before the realization of the macro narrative, and the excess supply expectation will continue to dominate [44][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose rapidly. The market was affected by geopolitical risks and the change of inventory expectations. The price was likely to start an upward - trending shock stage [47][48] - **PP**: The PP market improved in the short - term. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand increased. But there was still pressure from the expected inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to be in a volatile pattern [50][51] - **PE**: The PE market was in a situation of both supply and demand reduction. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand increased slightly. But the demand support was insufficient, and the upward space was limited [53][54] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene inventory continued to accumulate, and the market was in an over - supply situation. The styrene supply decreased in the near - term, and the demand increased. It was not recommended to chase high prices [55][56] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rose. The supply was affected by the US - Venezuela conflict, and the price was expected to be strong in the short - term [57][58] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber price rose. The price was affected by the cost of butadiene and geopolitical risks. The short - term trend was strong, but the fundamental driving force was limited [60] - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: The soda ash, glass, and caustic soda markets were all in a weak state. The soda ash was in an over - supply situation, the glass inventory was high, and the caustic soda demand was weak. Their prices were expected to be in a low - level shock [61][62][63] - **Log**: The log price was in a range - trading state. The inventory was decreasing, and the spot price was supported by low inventory. A low - buying and high - selling strategy could be adopted [64][65] - **Propylene**: The propylene price was supported by cost in the short - term. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was stable. The upward space was limited before the fundamental improvement [66] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The pig price was under pressure. The supply was controllable, and the consumption was weak. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening behavior and the change of the standard - fat price difference [69] - **Oilseeds**: The oilseed market showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The import soybean supply was affected by factors such as arrival time and procurement. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets had different supply - demand situations. A 35 - positive spread strategy could be held [70][72] - **Oils**: The oil market was in a wide - range shock. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets had different supply - demand situations. Attention should be paid to the production in producing areas and the information of the biodiesel market [73] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The domestic cotton supply was expected to be tight, and the demand was expected to increase. The short - term price may be adjusted, but there was still room for increase in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy adjustment [74][75] - **Sugar**: The sugar price was under pressure. The international and domestic sugar markets had different supply - demand situations. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of the raw sugar price [76][77] - **Eggs**: The egg price rose. The egg production decreased, and the demand increased. The price may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [78][79] - **Apples**: The apple price rose significantly. The market was affected by the shortage of delivery products. The price of both near - and far - term contracts was expected to rise further [80][81] - **Jujubes**: The jujube price was in a low - level shock. The domestic supply was abundant, and the price was expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the New Year's Day, geopolitical conflicts caught market attention again. The US escalated sanctions and military operations under the pretext of "drug - busting" and carried out a "decapitation operation" to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3. However, under the same geopolitical disturbance, the futures prices of asphalt and crude oil showed a significant divergence [1]. - The event led to the retracement of geopolitical premium for international crude oil. The reasons are that the market had fully priced in the geopolitical disturbance, Venezuela's oil production and exports accounted for a small proportion in global trade, and the current supply areas were stable with increasing supply and potential demand decline due to refinery maintenance. There is still some uncertainty in the Iranian domestic situation and the Israel - Iran situation [2]. - For asphalt, most of Venezuela's exported crude oil is suitable for asphalt production, and more than 60% is exported to China. The market is worried about future raw material supply shortages, and with low refinery inventory pressure, asphalt cracking has strengthened significantly [3]. - For the future of crude oil, OPEC+ will keep increasing production in Q1, and global refineries will enter the maintenance peak from February to May, suppressing demand. With weak fundamentals, short - term neutral macro - environment, and the end of the Venezuelan situation, the focus returns to the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations. If geopolitical disturbances provide a safety margin, short - selling on rebounds is worth considering in Q1. For asphalt, due to concerns about raw material supply and low refinery inventory, long - positions in asphalt cracking and 03, 06 basis are worth expecting as demand recovers seasonally [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Core Data - Crude Oil - In 2026, the global crude oil supply growth rate is significantly faster than demand, and the supply side is the dominant variable. Non - OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada provide stable increments, and OPEC+ nominal capacity poses potential pressure. The overall supply growth rate is faster than demand recovery, keeping inventory high and pushing the price down [5]. Core Data - Asphalt - The main factors influencing asphalt fluctuations include the tightness of raw materials (affected by sensitive oil premiums, port logistics, and refinery import quotas), capacity issues (although nominal capacity is sufficient, many refineries cannot operate at full capacity), and industrial policies (such as the consumption tax reform pilot in Shandong). It is expected that in 2026, the absolute price of asphalt will follow crude oil, while there will be structural opportunities in cracking, basis, and monthly spreads [8].