Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.03% today. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the largest increase of 0.74%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of -0.11%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.02%. Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.7%, and the Energy Index had the smallest increase of 0.24%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.67%, and the Coal Chemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.06% [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.03%. Sector and theme indices had different performances in terms of increases and decreases [1]. Performance of Main Single - Variety Indices - In the agricultural products sector, palm oil decreased by -0.30%, rapeseed oil decreased by -0.38%, rapeseed increased by 0.67%, rapeseed meal increased by 1.60%, and live pigs increased by 2.23%. In the energy and chemical sector, some products like methanol increased by 1.23%, while others had different performance. The largest decline among single - variety indices was caustic soda with a decline of -1.41% [1][7][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Affected by the short - selling of Nvidia and Palantir by the fund under Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", the US stock AI sector plunged. Coupled with intensified concerns about high valuations, US stocks tumbled, and the Asia - Pacific market continued to decline generally. The A - share market's risk appetite was affected, opening lower today. The large - cap stock index was relatively resilient, rising before the morning close with a style switch between large and small - cap stocks. Except for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, all other indices closed higher at the afternoon close, with the TMT sector leading the decline throughout the day. In the three trading days this week, the intraday trend of stock indices rebounded, indicating strong support below, but lacking sufficient upward momentum. The trading volume of the two markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, showing a state of being supported but not rising. There are long - short differences in the current market, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The US ADP data to be released tonight is expected to influence the market's interest - rate cut expectations and thus have an impact on the stock index trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Composite 50, which slightly declined, all other stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed up 0.19%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 434.17 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with increasing volume, while other varieties rose with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" will break the record. - The "Big Short" is short - selling 80% of his positions in Palantir and Nvidia, expressing a bearish view on the AI bubble [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | - 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.6616 | 5.312 | 14.7163 | 23.8684 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.1583 | 0.2586 | 0.3196 | 0.5106 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.004 | 9.6978 | 25.6435 | 36.6783 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.158 | 0.2204 | 0.4279 | 0.331 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite change (%) | 0.23 | | Shenzhen Component change (%) | 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18723.41 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 434.17 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market prices rose significantly due to factors like partial production cuts in some regions and active acquisitions by middle - and downstream players. However, this led to cautious inventory building at the acquisition end, a sell - off due to price stagnation, and a subsequent price correction. The expected resumption of US soybean imports after Sino - US trade negotiations also dampened market sentiment and weakened the upward momentum of futures prices [4]. - On Tuesday, the soybean No.1 futures continued to decline. The main 01 contract dropped 37 yuan/ton to close at 4055 yuan, with slightly lower trading volume and open interest, and a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction and Risk Strategies - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the soybean No.1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.00% and a historical percentile of 37.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling newly - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the soybean No.1 futures (A2601) when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: The new - season domestic soybeans are being purchased by the Hulunbuir warehouse of Sinograin at market prices, and the market is actively delivering. The production cut of high - protein soybeans supports market sentiment and acquisition behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Negative Factors**: After the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, China may resume and expand imports of US agricultural products, starting with soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybeans. The short - term supply - demand relationship has changed due to increased selling pressure at the grass - roots level and cautious inventory - building by enterprises. The significant increase in registered warehouse receipts on Tuesday also adds hedging pressure [4][8]. 3.3 Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices and Main Basis**: On November 4, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in different regions and their corresponding basis to the main contract are as follows: 3900 yuan in Harbin (- 135 basis), 3860 yuan in Nenjiang (- 216 basis), 3940 yuan in Jiamusi (- 136 basis), and 3970 yuan in Changchun (- 106 basis) [6]. - **Futures Closing Prices**: From November 3 to 4, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean No.1 futures contracts declined. For example, the 11 - contract dropped from 4076 yuan to 4044 yuan (- 0.79%), and the 01 - contract fell from 4076 yuan to 4055 yuan (- 0.52%) [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metal price, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and existing long - position bottom positions should be held cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices declined. The US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, the US stock market, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all dropped. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.3 per ounce, down 1.81%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.895 per ounce, down 2.4%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 908.92 yuan per gram, down 1.14%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11238 yuan per kilogram, down 1.33% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations rebounded slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.1%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3.15 tons to 1038.63 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 22.2 tons to 15167.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 6.7 tons to 665.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night. There will also be ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP small non - farm data during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown will delay data releases. Events: The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report on Thursday at 08:00. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches at different times [4] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various gold and silver contracts such as SHFE gold and silver futures, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver futures, as well as the COMEX gold - silver ratio [5] 3.5 Inventory and Position Data - It shows the latest inventory and position data of SHFE and CME gold and silver, including SHFE gold inventory (87816 kg), CME gold inventory (1178.2529 tons), SHFE gold position (144602 lots), etc. [13][14] 3.6 Other Asset Data - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of other assets such as the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, LME copper, and US Treasury yields [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend within the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be replenished, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrates arriving at ports this month can ease the tight situation. The release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The demand side is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production scheduling in November remains highly prosperous, which will maintain strong demand for lithium salts and intensify the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. National industrial policies are expected to support the demand for lithium salts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 29.4% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 45.1% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily环比 of 0.00%, a weekly change of - 4,340 yuan/ton, and a weekly环比 of - 5.24%. Other contract data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts are also provided [8]. - **Options and Other Data**: Information on estimated volume totals, option contract data for different months (including opening, high, low, last, change, settle, estimated volume, and prior - day open interest) are presented [22][23]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The daily average prices of different types of lithium ores (lithium mica, lithium spodumene, etc.) with different Li₂O contents are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. The exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB is also provided [27]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and their daily and weekly changes are presented. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) is also included [30]. - **Price Spreads**: Spreads such as the difference between electric - carbon and industrial - carbon, electric - carbon and electric - hydrogen, and the difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [37]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The daily prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes, and their changes are presented [38][39]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands are provided [41][43]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The seasonal data and the quantity data of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts (including the total and for different warehouses) are presented, along with their daily changes [44][46]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented, with their historical trends shown [47][48][49]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with battery material production plans, different hedging strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated with the raw material price. The hedging tools include futures and on - and off - exchange options, with different hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises with lithium carbonate production plans can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of price decline during sales. Different hedging ratios are recommended based on different situations [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of inventory depreciation, with recommended hedging ratios and price levels [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 05, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After entering November, the selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas began to weaken. In North China, the selling pressure was released after the "fire - sale" of moist corn. In Northeast China, after the peak of centralized harvest and listing, the selling pressure eased with the drop in temperature. The overall grass - roots in the producing areas were more reluctant to sell, and the purchasing end raised prices to increase purchases, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the resilience of corn prices has strengthened, and the subsequent price pressure has eased as it turns into a phased release of selling pressure. On Tuesday, the upward trend of the corn futures market paused. The main 01 contract closed at 2135 yuan, with significantly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 66,351 lots. Starch futures followed corn and closed lower. The main 01 contract closed at 2444 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly reduced open interest. On Tuesday, CBOT corn futures closed lower following the decline of soybeans. StoneX raised its forecast of US corn yield per acre by 10 bushels to 186.0 bushels per acre, which weighed on prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Core Contradictions - The selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas has weakened, and the grass - roots are reluctant to sell. The purchasing end raises prices, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the price pressure eases. The corn and starch futures markets closed lower on Tuesday, and CBOT corn futures also declined [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure has become more dispersed, and the urgency to sell grain has decreased, alleviating price pressure. The state - reserve purchase in Northeast China has significantly supported prices, limiting price declines. The unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November has increased the bullish sentiment in the market [5]. Bearish Factors - The weak operation of hog prices and the industry's capacity adjustment may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs still support the feed demand at a relatively good level. From mid - to early November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure needs to be released in a phased and concentrated manner, which restricts the continuous upward momentum of prices. Chinese importers have inquired about wheat cargoes and plan to load them from the end of this year to February next year. The resumption of grain imports will increase the pressure on domestic corn, and the purchase volume should be monitored [3]. Price Range Forecast | Commodity | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility | Volatility Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 2050 - 2200 | 9.43% | 54.6% | | Starch | 2350 - 2550 | 10.64% | 42.31% | [3] Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2165 | 0 | Shandong | 2750 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2250 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2450 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 30 | 21 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 306 | 9 | [3] Futures Market Prices - Specific price data for different contracts of corn and corn starch on November 03 and 04, 2025, are provided, including prices, changes, and change rates. For example, the corn 11 contract closed at 2129 yuan on November 03 and 2120 yuan on November 04, with a change of - 9 yuan and a change rate of - 0.42% [6]. U.S. Corn Price and Import Profit | | Price | Daily Change | Increase | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 430.75 | - 4 | - 0.92% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1120.25 | - 14.25 | - 1.26% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 550 | 5.25 | 0.96% | | | U.S. Gulf Port CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2151.26 | 0.92 | 0.04% | 98.74 | | U.S. West Coast CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2035.3 | 0.87 | 0.04% | 214.7 | [30]

戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 11000-13500 | 24.24% | 75.74% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | | 库存管 理 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 担心库存减值，但期货盘面没有合适价位入场，卖出看涨期权 | LH2601 LH2601-C-1300 | 卖出 卖出 | 10% 10% | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 担心库存减值，又不想放弃后市可能出现猪价大涨的机会，买入虚值看跌期权 | LH2601-P-1100 0 | 买入 | | | 采购管 理 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据 【市场资讯】1）中俄总理第三十次定期会晤联合公报：深化北极航道、人工智能与信息技 术合作。2）中国商务部评安世半导体相关问题：荷方继续一意孤行，且无解决问题实际行 动，希望荷方停止干涉企业内部事务。3）美国最高法院周三见分晓，特朗普关税命运系于 其亲手任命的三位大法官；美财长贝森特自称将前往最高院、强调关税的重要性。4）美国 参议院未通过拨款法案，联邦政府"停摆"将破纪录。 【核心逻辑】"十五五"规划建议稿正式发布，可依据规划建议稿明确的重点领域，锁定未 来核心关注方向。同时，中美经贸团队于吉隆坡磋商达成阶段性共识，将在未来一年内减 弱关税政策对市场的扰动，边际提升市场风险偏好，推动相关资产逐步回归基本面定价。 中美贸易摩擦本质上是一场持久战，矛盾的缓和需要时间积累，难以通过单次磋商实现根 本性突破，后续仍需关注双方政策的落地执行及长期博弈动态。制造业 PMI 边际回落，供 需均有所走弱，后续经济仍需政策支撑。海外方面，随着美国降息落地，后续市场关注的 重点或转向为关注美国政府停摆期间的就业、通胀情况，特别是关注 ADP 数据，同时，市 场另一大关注点则为美国政府究竟何时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market trending weakly. It awaits the final US energy policy in November and further news on Indonesia's B50 plan. The strategy is mainly to wait and see, and there may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes. Also, the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil are expected to widen [2][3]. - The oil and fat market shows short - term weak adjustment and medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There are many negative factors in the oil and fat market. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in October with limited export boost, increasing inventory pressure. Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain, affecting market sentiment, but the transfer of plantation ownership may limit production, and the B40 plan supports the price floor. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks is optimistic for soybean oil, while Sino - Canadian relations are uncertain, making rapeseed oil resistant to decline. Domestically, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient, with short - term pressure, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. - In the short - term, the domestic oil and fat inventory is high, and demand is weak. Downstream consumption is mainly for rigid needs, with limited expansion in the fourth - quarter peak season. In the long - term, the market will focus on the US biofuel obligation in November, the supply - demand balance of palm oil in producing areas, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [5][6][14]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current base - spread is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. For the month - spread, considering the Southeast Asian Ramadan and Indonesia's B50 plan in the first quarter of next year, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils are expected to widen [21][22]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Traders with high oil and fat inventory can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the price range forecasts and volatility data of the three oils [23][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of November 1 was 47.1% [30]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production at a seven - year high. India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year [31]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [32]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, progress of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, US government information, and USDA data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil and fat market continued to weaken this week due to more negative information. Although the market is bearish, the downward space is limited. The positions of key profit - making seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. The basis structure is weak, and the Back structure has become shallower. The soybean - palm spread strengthened, the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly, and the rapeseed - palm spread changed little [35][36][66]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weak first and then strong. The palm oil - producing areas had many negative factors, but Sino - US trade talks were optimistic for soybean oil, and Sino - Canadian relations made rapeseed oil relatively strong [69]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads decreased this week. The cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly, and the cost of US soybean oil for biodiesel production remained low [72]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price has decreased slightly, and the profit improved briefly but then weakened again [74]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in September did not decline as expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. However, there is a strong expectation of La Nina in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [76]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: The procurement intention of traders is low, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. Soybean oil: The supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the pressure may weaken from December. Rapeseed oil: The inventory is high, but it will gradually decrease. If Sino - Canadian relations do not improve, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats is expected to remain stable and weak [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The stock index opened lower and rebounded in the late session, recouping some losses, with the trading volume in the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market and the increasing profit - taking intention of funds led to a correction in some sectors. The market showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, with the basis of stock index futures falling and market sentiment cooling. However, the late - session rebound indicated support at lower levels. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. The market has significant differences in the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the US ADP data. The strategy recommended is to hold positions and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index closed down collectively, with the large - cap index relatively resilient. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.75%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1913.73 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IM declined with increasing volume, while other varieties declined with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [4]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.89 | -0.18 | -1.92 | -1.55 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.8199 | 5.0534 | 14.3967 | 23.3578 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | -2.4816 | -1.2191 | -0.511 | -2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | -0.1034 | -0.2629 | -0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.41 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.71 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.45 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 19157.58 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | -1913.73 | [7]