Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support at the 3300 mark, and for London silver, the support is around 37.3. The strategy of buying on dips is still maintained [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market adjusted. The sharp rise of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield was a negative factor. The surrounding US stocks and Bitcoin declined, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3330.5 per ounce, down 0.85%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.985 per ounce, down 1.95%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 0.52% [1] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 45.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 22%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 28.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons, and the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 110.22 tons to 14856.02 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1 ton to 1223 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [2] This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. On Thursday at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3] Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main continuous contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, down 1 yuan, or - 0.13%; SGX gold TD was 776.13 yuan per gram, down 1.33 yuan, or - 0.17%; CME gold main contract was $3330.5 per ounce, down $21.6, or - 0.64%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 18 yuan, or 0.2%; SGX silver TD was 9184 yuan per kilogram, up 12 yuan, or 0.13%; CME silver main contract was $37.985 per ounce, down $0.425, or - 1.11%. SHFE - TD gold was 4.27 yuan per gram, up 0.33 yuan, or 8.38%; SHFE - TD silver was 41 yuan per kilogram, up 6 yuan, or 191.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 87.6793, up 0.4078, or 0.47% [5] Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 28872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms, or 0.05%; CME gold inventory was 1143.012 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 198270 lots, up 7187 lots, or 3.76%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.64 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1222.959 tons, down 1.023 tons, or - 0.08%; CME silver inventory was 15447.1139 tons, up 0.3878 tons, or 0%; SGX silver inventory was 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons, or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings were 450115 lots, up 2020 lots, or 0.45%; SLV silver holdings were 14856.023289 tons, down 110.213 tons, or - 0.74% [11] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6303, up 0.5171, or 0.53%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1858, up 0.0139, or 0.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44459.65 points, up 88.14 points, or 0.2%; WTI crude oil spot was $66.98 per barrel, down $1.47, or - 2.15%; LmeS copper 03 was $9643.5 per ton, down $19.5, or - 0.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.43%, unchanged; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.09%, up 0.05, or 2.45%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, unchanged [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, affected by macro - factors, chemical products generally declined. PE has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectation, with its spot performance being weak recently but fundamentals expected to be better. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The month - spread has changed from back to contango, and pressure on L09 is expected to be relieved when the PE spot shows positive feedback [3] - There are both positive and negative factors for PE. Positive factors include some full - density device conversions and potential import reduction from Iran due to conflicts. Negative factors are the planned commissioning of multiple HDPE devices in the middle of the year and weak spot prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Prediction and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.32% and a historical percentile of 21.7% over 3 years [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7300 to prevent inventory depreciation. Also, sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs, buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 to prevent price increases. Sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Data Table 3.3.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the plastic main basis was 14 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 58 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 14 yuan/ton. The L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7239, 7214, and 7221 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 49, - 44, and - 63 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 14, 14, and - 24 yuan/ton [6][8] 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On July 15, 2025, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7150, 7290, and 7270 yuan/ton respectively. The East - North and East - South regional spreads were 140 and 20 yuan/ton with daily changes of 30 and 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and - 30 yuan/ton [8] 3.3.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the spreads between HDPE film and LLDPE film, HDPE hollow and LLDPE film, etc. showed various changes compared to previous days and weeks [8] 3.3.4 Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - On July 15, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon, and there were different profit situations for oil - based, coal - based, and other PE production methods [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Economic fundamentals continue a weak recovery trend, with weak demand and investment and structural issues remaining. After the data release, the index declined to varying degrees and rebounded in the afternoon. The index is expected to continue adjusting in the short term, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged without obvious negative signals [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, all stock indexes except the CSI 300 Index closed down. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2533.8 billion yuan, and the futures contracts all declined with reduced volume [4] Important Information - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow in June. China's economy grew 5.3% year-on-year in H1 2025. In H1 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%. In June, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4228.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year. Consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in H2 [5][7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation - The intraday price changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts were -0.24%, -0.64%, -0.12%, and -0.55% respectively. The trading volumes were 124,297 lots, 61,294 lots, 100,711 lots, and 210,590 lots respectively, with a decrease of 44,249 lots, 19,958 lots, 34,305 lots, and 77,808 lots respectively compared to the previous day. The open interest was 267,331 lots, 97,479 lots, 231,202 lots, and 344,784 lots respectively, with an increase of 3,863 lots, 1,424 lots, 3,901 lots, and 18,183 lots respectively compared to the previous day [8] Spot Market Observation - The price change of the Shanghai Composite Index was -0.42%, and that of the Shenzhen Component Index was 0.56%. The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.33. The trading volume of the two markets was 1612.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 1533.09 billion yuan compared to the previous day [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall fundamentals of methanol have weakened recently. Although it tested the bottom around 2350, most varieties rebounded due to anti - involution, and market expectations for policies were high. However, the coal - chemical sector, including methanol, struggled to keep up. The short - term outlook for methanol is weak, and attention should be paid to whether port提货 improves [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2250) with a 50% ratio and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 45 - 60% ratio to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can also sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Methanol tested the bottom around 2350, but the coal - chemical sector couldn't keep up with the market rebound. The fundamentals weakened due to normal recovery in Iran (150,000 shipments as of the weekend), rumors of mto - end Xingxing's ship rerouting and potential shutdown, and poor port提货 after the geopolitical conflict, along with increased arrivals at port public tank farms in July leading to inventory accumulation and potential inventory expansion [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the current market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price drop". When the futures rebound, it creates a hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but the price will eventually fall back due to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upwards at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downwards in the fourth quarter due to the end of technological transformation and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.3% and a historical percentile of 27.1% in the past three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the trading volume is 764,028 lots, down 250,530 lots or 24.69%; the open interest is 342,146 lots, down 14,015 lots or 3.94%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 66,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.15%; the trading volume and open interest remain unchanged [10]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread is 760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 5.56%; the LC09 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 17%; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or - 15% [13]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores show different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 5 - 5.5%) is 4,975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.40%; the average price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 690 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars or - 0.36% [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also have different changes. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan or 0.40% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current value of the battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 12.02% [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also show different changes. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.18% [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, such as the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is 400 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 500 yuan/ton [29]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 11,204 lots, down 1 lot from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi's warehouse receipts decreasing by 20 lots, and Suining Tiancheng's increasing by 120 lots [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate [32].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Continue to hold [1] Core Viewpoints - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted today. The central bank's press conference on Monday and the outright repo have alleviated market concerns about regulatory and capital tightening. The June economic data has further highlighted the supply - demand contradiction, and the market's judgment on the fundamentals has been verified again. The Central Urban Work Conference in the afternoon focused on modernization, innovation, livability, and smart cities, and the expectation of shantytown renovation has also been dashed. The market sentiment has reversed, and the market may continue to rise in the short term, but after the sentiment is digested, the market may return to a volatile pattern [3] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, quickly rose after the release of economic data during the session, and strengthened throughout the day, closing higher across the board. In the open market, 69 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 273.5 billion yuan [1] Intraday News - On the 15th, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference that relevant departments are formulating measures to regulate market order, which is conducive to promoting the improvement of market supply - demand relations, price recovery, corporate profits, and economic structure adjustment [2] Market Judgment - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted. The central bank's press conference and the outright repo have eased market concerns; the economic data has verified the market's judgment on fundamentals; the Central Urban Work Conference disappointed the market in terms of shantytown renovation expectations. The market sentiment has reversed, and it may continue to rise in the short term, but will return to a volatile pattern after the sentiment is digested [3] Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On July 15, 2025, compared with July 14, 2025, TS2509 rose 0.036 to 102.414, TF2509 rose 0.13 to 106.015, T2509 rose 0.19 to 108.885, and TL2509 rose 0.57 to 120.77 [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 324 to 124,685 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 2,605 to 206,300 hands, T contract positions decreased by 2,210 to 236,332 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 276 to 152,088 hands [4] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0193 to 0.0192, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0223 to 0.0428, T basis (CTD) fell 0.0301 to - 0.0004, and TL basis (CTD) fell 0.007 to 0.3404 [4] - **Transaction Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 767 to 32,348 hands, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 14,377 to 48,707 hands, T main contract trading volume decreased by 1,759 to 67,445 hands, and TL main contract trading volume decreased by 820 to 91,330 hands [4] - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 rose 0.0813 to 1.424, DR007 rose 0.0642 to 1.536, and DR014 rose 0.0249 to 1.5609. DR001 trading volume decreased by 380.50451 billion yuan to 2,336.61307 billion yuan, DR007 trading volume increased by 78.7651 billion yuan to 1,063.5984 billion yuan, and DR014 trading volume increased by 2.2952 billion yuan to 110.983 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the under - performance of Trump's policies on Ukraine and Russia, market concerns about supply tightening and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine situation have significantly eased, causing international oil prices to decline. The current demand is strong, with high refinery operating rates in the US and China, and China's high import demand, which supports the Dubai price. However, future demand growth is limited and will face seasonal decline. Even if OPEC + may suspend production increases in October, the US demand will reach an inflection point in September, and the "long - tail effect" of previous production increases will gradually weaken the oil fundamentals. The oil market is short - term bullish but has limited upside potential, and the pressure will increase over time [2]. Market Dynamics Macro - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach a conflict agreement within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed, and the US will also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. This statement led to a drop in oil futures to a daily low [3]. - Brazil's vice - president denied the news of tariff reduction and extension requests, and Brazil will announce counter - measures. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods [4]. Fundamentals - In June, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, and the processing volume was 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The strong performance in June was due to the good profit margins of state - owned refineries. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, contributing to a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [5][6]. - An explosion occurred at the Sarsang oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan, suspending production. The average production of the block is about 36,000 barrels per day [6]. - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in June decreased by 3.4% month - on - month. It is expected that exports from July to August will increase significantly [7]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | Indicator | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 69.21 | 70.36 | 69.58 | - 1.15 | - 0.37 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 65.81 | 67.04 | 66.49 | - 1.23 | - 0.68 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 507.5 | 511.9 | 505 | - 4.4 | 2.5 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 67.59 | 68.36 | 67.72 | - 0.77 | - 0.13 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 70.76 | 71.65 | 71.26 | - 0.89 | - 0.5 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 70.74 | 71.55 | 71.11 | - 0.81 | - 0.37 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 1.62 | 2 | 1.86 | - 0.38 | - 0.24 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.98 | 1.2 | 1.12 | - 0.22 | - 0.14 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.97 | 0.34 | 0.1 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 1.1 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.15 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 11.1 | 10 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 5.5 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 2.234 | 1.6531 | 2.7249 | 0.5809 | - 0.4909 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.416 | - 1.3569 | - 0.5451 | - 0.0591 | - 0.8709 | [9]

张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素套保策略表 尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/15 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 【利空解读】 受国内政策压制，协会要求工厂低价销售尿素，给现货情绪带来负面影响。 . 免責声明 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | ...