Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Song Jipeng (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016598) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Log Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 740 - 820 [2] - Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling): 16.28% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 67.4% [2] - Hedging Strategy for High Import Volume and High Inventory: Short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Hedging Strategy for Low Standing Inventory: Long log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Strategy - Current Situation: The position is awkward, the direction is unclear, and trading is challenging. The main driver of the current price decline is the disposal of delivery goods, and it's hard to judge how long it will take to digest them. There is a peak - season expectation and rising import costs in the future [3] - Strategy: Rest, observe, and wait [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors - Bullish Factor: Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses [4] Group 5: Bearish Factors - Bearish Factor 1: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price [5] - Bearish Factor 2: The continuous increase in foreign shipments [5] Group 6: Spot and Basis - Spot Price and Basis Data: Presented for different specifications, ports, and dates, with the calculation formula for the basis (converted) provided [5][8][9] Group 7: Log Data Overview Supply - Radiation Pine Import Volume (May 31, 2025): 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9] Inventory - Port Inventory (China, July 11, 2025): 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [9] - Port Inventory (Shandong, July 11, 2025): 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [9] - Port Inventory (Jiangsu, July 11, 2025): 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [9] - Log Port Daily Average Outbound Volume (July 11, 2025): 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0% [9] Demand - Daily Average Outbound Volume (Shandong, July 11, 2025): 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [9] - Daily Average Outbound Volume (Jiangsu, July 11, 2025): 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9] Profit - Radiation Pine Import Profit (July 18, 2025): - 82 yuan/m³, no week - on - week change [9] - Spruce Import Profit (July 18, 2025): - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [9] Main Spot - Spot Prices for Different Specifications and Ports on July 15, 2025 are provided, along with their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions and maintain the idea of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. Silver rose and then fell, platinum declined significantly, and palladium had a wide trading range. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, the US stock market fluctuated, Bitcoin rose and then fell, crude oil prices dropped, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3352.1 per ounce, down 0.35%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down 1.4%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 781.4 yuan/gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9207 yuan/kg, up 2.11% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 3.2%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 79.6 tons to 1224 tons daily; as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons weekly [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the focus in terms of data is on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. In terms of events, domestically, at 10:00 on Tuesday, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the economic performance in the first half of 2025. Overseas, at 14:45 on Tuesday, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 21:45, Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted conference. At 00:45 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Barr will speak at a Fed - hosted conference; at 02:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will give a speech; at 04:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - Precious metals futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metals contracts such as SHFE gold, SGX gold TD, CME gold, etc. [6]. - Inventory and position table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver ETFs [15][16]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure shows factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased operating rates, while the crack spread remains high. Currently, the supply increase exceeds expectations slightly, and the demand is still in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium to long term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the cargo flow situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] - There are both positive and negative factors for asphalt. Positive factors include low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South. Negative factors include the resumption of production in some refineries after maintenance, short - term demand drag from the plum rain season in the South, and weakening basis [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.98% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.88% [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about asphalt price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a hedging ratio of 50% in the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1] 3. Asphalt Spot and Futures Prices and Related Indicators - **Spot prices**: On July 14, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3810 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3610 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, - 20 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - **Spot 09 basis**: The Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot 09 basis all decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with weekly decreases of - 90, - 130, - 80, and - 100 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Crack spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 153.4511 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of - 0.2613 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of - 9.1929 yuan/barrel. The futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 125.0318 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 6.6702 yuan/barrel and a weekly increase of 6.4031 yuan/barrel [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the arrival inventory from the Philippines increased, leading to a loosening of nickel ore support. News such as the low actual output of nickel ore quotas further deepened the expectation of a loose supply. The intraday transaction price of ferronickel decreased to some extent, mainly affected by weak downstream demand and cost loosening, and is currently close to the conversion spread of high - grade nickel matte. Stainless steel continued to fluctuate intraday, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals and limited room for further upward movement. The new energy link still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. In the future, attention should be mainly paid to the game between Indonesia and the United States on tariffs, which increases the sentiment disturbance in the downstream of the nickel industry chain, and the trend of new energy tariff exemptions between the EU and Indonesia [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a short - selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract; sell call options, with a short - selling ratio of 50% for over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs; sell put options; buy out - of - the - money call options, with the trading volume based on the procurement plan [2] Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 290 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume is 80,732 lots, a decrease of 21,189 lots (- 20.79%); the open interest is 59,940 lots, a decrease of 1,587 lots (- 2.58%); the warehouse receipt volume is 21,296 tons, an increase of 854 tons (4.18%); the basis of the main contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,430 yuan (- 56.8%) [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Daily**: The latest price of the stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume is 92,687 lots, a decrease of 63,358 lots (- 40.60%); the open interest is 66,494 lots, a decrease of 11,562 lots (- 14.81%); the warehouse receipt volume is 111,051 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the basis of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan (75.61%) [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, an increase of 402 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [7] Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in the Congo continues; Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry will be in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, with the photovoltaic industry potentially boosting demand, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy enterprises maintaining stable demand. The price will show a wide - range fluctuation. Suggestions include looking for opportunities to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread trading, and going long on industrial silicon while shorting polysilicon [4]. - Positive factors are the "anti - involution" policy, limited downward space for costs, and better - than - expected demand. Negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration in the polysilicon industry [5][6]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, lower electricity prices and higher profits may increase production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory persists. If industry integration is effective, it may drive prices up. The suggestion is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread trading [8]. - Positive factors are potential industry integration and increased external demand from the US. Negative factors are inventory accumulation if integration fails [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The industrial silicon main contract shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.7%, a daily increase of 1.09%, and the current volatility at the 96.4% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 8695 yuan/ton, up 3.33% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1473993 lots, up 54.58%; the open interest is 402890 lots, up 9.54%. SI09 - 11 spread is 90 yuan/ton, up 28.57% [2][13][15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 8850 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The East China 553 basis is 435 yuan/ton, up 55.36%, and the East China 421 - 553 spread is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50090 lots, down 139 lots or 3.58% from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventories in different delivery warehouses have different changes [24]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The polysilicon main contract also shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.99%, a daily increase of 0.01%, and the current volatility at the 84.73% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 41765 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes. PS08 - 09 spread is 320 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [2][27][29]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as P - type and N - type, have different daily changes. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 43.45 yuan/kg, down 3.01% [34]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The polysilicon main contract basis is 1685 yuan/ton, down 51.44% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [41][43]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management of industrial silicon and polysilicon, when product inventory is high, strategies include shorting futures, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, when there is a risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying forward futures contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical impact of the current Israel - Iran conflict is gradually subsiding, and the price of ethylene glycol is now mainly driven by fundamentals. With weak demand, increasing supply and decreasing demand, the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol turns weak. It maintains a tight balance in July and will enter a continuous inventory accumulation phase later. The upward drive from fundamentals is limited, relying more on supply - side accidents and cost disturbances driven by the macro - environment. The valuation is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the subsequent production reduction rhythm of the polyester sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Range and Volatility**: The monthly price range forecasts are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 17.22% for ethylene glycol, 24.12% for PX, 22.00% for PTA, and 17.82% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 36.2% for ethylene glycol, 76.9% for PX, 63.2% for PTA, and 56.0% for bottle chips [2]. - **Polyester Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4200) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory and the need to lock in procurement costs, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4200 - 4250, and selling put options (EG2509P4200) with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. Core Contradiction - The geopolitical impact of the Israel - Iran conflict fades, and ethylene glycol price is driven by fundamentals. Demand is weak, supply increases while demand decreases, resulting in a weakening supply - demand balance. It is in a tight balance in July and will enter an inventory accumulation phase. The upward drive from fundamentals is limited, relying on supply - side accidents and cost disturbances [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports is 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons from the previous period. With less arrivals this week, it is expected to decrease by 3 - 4 tons next week [4]. - **Supply**: Several ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with annual capacities of 45, 55, and 70 tons have reduced production or shut down, and the import volume in August is expected to shrink [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Not provided in the content Polyester Daily Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices of various polyester products and their spreads (such as TA1 - 5, EG5 - 9) have different daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent crude oil is at 70.6 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of 1.1 [7]. - **Inventory**: PTA, MEG, and PX have different inventory levels and changes in the number of warehouse receipts [7]. - **Processing Margin**: The processing margins of different products (such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread) also show various daily and weekly changes [7][8]. - **Sales Rate**: The sales rates of polyester products (such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber) have different degrees of change [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market is strong, showing a resonant upward trend. Fundamentally, caustic soda has strengthened in the near - term, and the decline in liquid chlorine has led to cost increases. Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory is low year - on - year, with little spot pressure, and the market may anticipate the peak season. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the medium - to - long - term, as production resumes and new production capacity is gradually put into operation, supply - side pressure may gradually emerge [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.38%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 6.6% [3]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SH2509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2600 - 2650 range to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell SH509C2600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 60 - 70 range to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SH2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 2350 - 2400 range to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell SH509P2400 put options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 40 - 50 range to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Price Information - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: On July 14, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2564 (up 28 or 1.1% from July 11), the 09 contract was 2496 (down 11 or - 0.44%), and the 01 contract was 2509 (up 33 or 1.33%). The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 40 (up 6), (9 - 1) was 20 (up 5), and (1 - 5) was - 60 (down 11) [5]. - **Base Prices**: The 05 contract base price (Shandong Jinling) was - 36 (up 5), the 09 contract was 4 (up 11), and the 01 contract was 54 (up 30) [6]. - **Factory Prices**: The 32% caustic soda factory price in Shandong Jinling on July 14, 2025, was 2563 (up 62.5 or 2.5% from July 11). The 50% caustic soda factory price of Jinling was 2660 (up 80 or 3.1%) [6][7]. - **Market Prices**: The flake caustic soda market prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 14, 2025, compared with July 11 [7]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Brand/Regional Spreads - On July 14, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 98 (up 17.5), the spread between Jiangsu 49% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 13 (up 71), and the spread between Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 244 (down 31.25) [8]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Futures Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures monthly spreads (07 - 09), (09 - 11), (11 - 01), and (09 - 1) are provided, sourced from wind and Nanhua Research [10][11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Driven by recent events, the short - term price of precious metals is expected to remain strong. However, close attention should be paid to the US precious metal import tariff policy, as the failure of the tariff policy may lead to a correction in precious metal prices and cross - market spreads. For short - term trading, the support levels for gold are 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. London silver has broken through the resistance in the 37 - 37.3 area, and the upside may extend to the 40 area. The strategy of buying on dips is still recommended [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, precious metal prices generally showed a strong performance, with significant increases in silver and palladium. The premium of precious metal prices in the US market over London spot prices widened significantly, possibly due to concerns about additional tariffs on other key imported minerals after Trump unexpectedly imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports. The prices of palladium, platinum, and silver in the US market have reached new highs. Attention should be paid to the future direction of Trump's import tariff policy on precious metals [1]. - Regarding trade tariffs, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs was postponed from July 9 to August 1. Starting from August 1, the US will impose different tariff rates on various countries, such as 25% on Japan, South Korea, etc., 30% on South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, etc., and 50% on Brazil [1]. - In terms of the Fed's monetary policy, Fed Governor Waller said that a rate cut in July could be considered, and he supported continuing the balance - sheet reduction and increasing the proportion of short - term assets [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14758.5 tons [2]. - Short - term fund holdings: According to the CFTC持仓 report as of July 8, the non - commercial net long positions in gold increased by 988 contracts to 202968 contracts, with long positions increasing by 3054 contracts and short positions increasing by 2066 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions in silver decreased by 4879 contracts to 58521 contracts, with long positions decreasing by 1968 contracts and short positions increasing by 2911 contracts [2]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 1143 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 135.7 tons to 15393.7 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 3.13 tons to 24.59 tons, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1303.6 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory (as of the week of July 4) decreased by 3.33 tons to 1319.9 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening [3]. - Events: - Domestic: On Monday at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025; at 15:00, it will hold a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025. On Tuesday at 10:00, it will hold a press conference on the national economic operation in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Overseas: There are multiple speeches by Fed officials and the Bank of England governor throughout the week, and the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions on Thursday. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3][4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table also presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity market indicators, including the US dollar index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, etc. [18].

南华贵金属日报: 金震银涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月11日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金震银涨，周边资产看，美指、美债收益率震荡略偏强，美股和比特币上涨，原油下跌， 南华有色金属大涨。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3333美元/盎司，+0.36%；美白银2509合约收报于 37.625美元/盎司，+2.72%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收报773.3元/克，+0.49%；SHFE白银2510合约收 8919元/千克，+0.22%。关税方面，特朗普对铜征收50%的关税，8月1日起生效，引发海外铜铜库存抢在8 月1日关税落地前运送至美国，铜市上涨，以及美国相交伦敦铜溢价走扩。8月"大限"前缅甸争取特朗普猛 砍关税，提议对美或可零关税。巴西总统：将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将对等反制。美联储理事沃勒表 示，可以考虑7月降息，支持继续缩表，增加短期资产比重。沃勒是美联储当红理事，也是美国总统特朗普考 虑提名为下一任美联储主席的候选人之一。特朗普此前曾多次呼吁美联储降息。 【降息预期与基金持仓 】 降息预期总体稳定。据CME"美 ...

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.0% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management: - Short L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7350 - 7450 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7400 call options at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs: - Buy L2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if prices fall [2] 3. Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, PE also has upward momentum. Supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and demand has been higher than expected. If the high - demand growth rate continues in the second half of the year, PE supply and demand will be in a tight - balance state. Currently, the improvement in macro - sentiment and fundamentals is in resonance, giving PE short - term upward momentum [3] 4. Supply - Side Factors Positive Factors - PE plants are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to last until mid - July [3] - Some full - density plants have switched production from LLDPE to HDPE due to the high HDPE - LLDPE price spread. Although HDPE supply has increased, its low inventory can absorb the additional supply, and LLDPE supply has decreased marginally [3] - The Iran - Israel conflict may lead to a slight reduction in PE imports from Iran in July - August [3][4] Negative Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [8] - The current spot price lacks strong support, making the real - world market weak [8] 5. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on July 11, 2025, was 64 yuan/ton higher than the previous day and 18 yuan/ton lower than the previous week [6] - Details of L01, L05, L09 contract prices, month - to - month spreads, and L - P spreads are provided in the report [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices and regional spreads in North China, East China, and South China are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, are given, along with their changes [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Prices of Brent crude oil, US ethane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits from different production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) are provided, along with their changes [9]